Roy Morgan has published a weekly result for the second week in a row, perhaps suggesting a return to old form after its post-election practice of combining its regular surveying into large-sample monthly results. The latest result has Labor down one-and-a-half points on last week to 28.5% and the Coalition down fully six-and-a-half points to 24%, with a six-point increase pushing One Nation to 21% and bringing the pollster closer into line with its rivals. The Greens are steady on 13.5%. Labor leads 53.5-46.5 on respondent allocated preferences and 53-47 when preference flows from the last election are applied, in both cases out from 52-48 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715 – the full release has two-party preferred breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, which unfortunately does not extend to primary votes as the monthly aggregations were doing.
The Daily Mail reports a Freshwater Strategy poll of 1050 respondents has Labor on 33% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 11% and One Nation on 19%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Pauline Hanson records a plus six net approval rating, with Anthony Albanese on minus nine and Sussan Ley on minus five, and Albanese leading Ley 45-32 on preferred prime minister. “About 75%” supported “a temporary cap on migration while housing and infrastructure catches up, while 81% backed stricter character tests and background checks for visa applicants”. We may see full details of the poll reported on the company’s site at a later time.
gollsays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 6:49 pm
nathsays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 5:46 pm
[welcome back nadia}
I’m with Nath logistics with this!
———————————–
I believe that it was joke too. Implying Ven was Nadia because he failed to detect a joke.
nath @ #3032 Tuesday, January 27th, 2026 – 6:18 pm
Perhaps the investigators have families.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Murder is a state offence. I’m not sure a federal pardon would give a complete immunity, even though the ICE officers were purporting to execute federal powers under federal laws.
_________________________
I’m assuming if state prosecutors want to go after him it will be fought all the way to the supreme court?
From the Hoodoo Gurus….
“We were disgusted to hear that one of our songs was played by a bunch of wannabe fascists yesterday (One Nation). Like most Australians, we have always been appalled by Pauline Hanson and the toxic nonsense she spouts”…etc.
Records have tumbled today in Victoria:
For temperature: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/south-east-aus-heatwave-sets-record-temperatures-exceed-49c/106274644
And electricity demand: https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2026/01/vic-demand-reaches-a-new-all-time-high-as-long-standing-record-pipped-on-one-of-the-hottest-days-on-record-for-the-state-on-27th-january-2026/
I’m bored. I want to see a poll. The rise of One Nation….., preferred Liberal leader … anything .
evads says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 7:07 pm
I’m bored. I want to see a poll. The rise of One Nation….., preferred Liberal leader … anything .
_________
A post-Coalition poll is definitely of interest.
IF the Greens/Liberals actually do this a) it will probably destroy the Greens (unless the Liberals basically let the Greens do what they want) at the next election – yeah, people in Canberra (aka where I live) are not exactly thrilled with the ACT Government, but if the Greens elevate the Liberals to Government … there will be consequences.
Even if all works, it’ll be a 13/12 split, meaning if ANY of the Greens or Liberals disagree on a big policy issue? Interesting to think you can actually control the Greens, you couldn’t even when they were a part of the 2020-24 Government.
It’s also a huge sign neither the Greens or Liberals think they can actually win an election.
Entropy @ #2908 Tuesday, January 27th, 2026 – 1:45 pm
Until the reference to Price being “the Good Witch” I thought Landlubber might be Sam McMahon in drag.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 6:26 pm
….
China – whose own human rights record has been deeply criticised – was scathing of Australia’s treatment of First Nations people and refugees and asylum seekers,…’
=============================
Exactly why one cannot possibly take the UN seriously. There are no human rights in China. Period.
“You forgot Gillard, in your witch calling diatribe. You really are outing yourself as a misogynist.
Until the reference to Price being “the Good Witch” I thought Landlubber might be Sam McMahon in drag.”
Witch calling diatribes are the domain of the Left. They would think there’s a fourth witch, the “Witch of Ipswich”. But we know that just because two words rhyme doesn’t mean the allusion is appropriate. In fact, it’s bordering on blasphemous, given that the victim of that diatribe is the closest thing to a messiah for mainstream Australia.
She’s not the Messiah…
If the ACT Greens and Libs do get together now is probably the time to do it as they’d have 3 years to prove it can work
I listened to the interview with Shane Rattenbury linked to earlier, quite interesting. He is definitely open to the idea BUT there are a lot of boxes to tick including getting the membership onboard
It’s worth listening to the bit after the interview as well, with the point being made by some that they would be forced to cancel out each other’s extremes
Also Jo Clay is on a few minutes later and makes some good points. Many councils are elected without party branding and power sharing by parties is common in Europe
Outside looking in but I’m warming to the idea although still think it’s unlikely to happen
The Breakfast Show also ran a poll, 61-39 against but I’d imagine many of those were Labor voters
Apart from a few nut cases who come here who like to think Trump is the solution to all our problems, I would venture most would consider the murder of the US guy on the street of his hometown a clear case of murder.
I am reminded of a gangster movie where the Boss Gangster (Al Capone?) wanted one of his enemy “Dead, Dead, Dead!”
It seems the fascist goons loved this advice as it sounded as though they pumped a hail of bullets into the guy, already on the ground and held down by 4- 8 other guys, to ensure he was “Dead, Dead, Dead!” too.
Tell me there is not a blood lust in the US in relation to guns.
All hale to Oz politicians who support the severe control over deadly guns in our fair land!
”I’m bored. I want to see a poll. The rise of One Nation….., preferred Liberal leader … anything .”
Maybe this weekend, with Federal Parliament kicking off for the new political year next week.
You think Liberal voters would be thrilled with the idea of being beholden to the Greens? Or vice-versa?
Most of my Greens member friends are horrified at the idea of being in bed with one of the most right-wing Liberal branches in the country (despite Mark Parton’s sunny and relatively inoffensive demeanour). There are also massive, massive policy differences. The Libs want aggressive development and reduced red and green tape to do it, that’s just one. The Liberals really haven’t adjusted their policies which saw them badly hurt in 2020 – reduce rates, continue stamp duty phase out… but not cut spending? Would the Greens back the Liberals cutting back the increase in spending on health in the last Budget (which they voted for)?
Obviously, if the whole game is to get more concessions from the Government, go for it – but if they’re willing to roll the dice, I kind of respect the Greens for no longer pretending to not be a political party like any other.
I don’t say this as a Labor voter, I say this as a Canberran – it’s a stupid fucking idea.
Here’s one.
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DemosAU-Federal-Poll-January-2026-FINAL.pdf
And as noted, Sky News will have a YouGov poll tomorrow.
Hey, all!
Roy Morgan just dropped a new poll.
ALP: 30.5% (+2%)
LIB: 20% (-2%)
NAT: 2.5% (+0.5%)
ON: 22.5% (+1.5%)
GRN: 13.0% (-0.5%)
Roy Morgan has One Nation ahead of the Liberals.
ALP – LIB 2PP: 56.5% – 43.5% (ALP +3%)
With 2025 election preferences, the ALP-LIB 2PP is 54.5% – 45.5% (up 1.5% for the ALP)
Interestingly, if the Coalition were retained, they and One Nation would be tied and not ahead. Also the high 2PP for the ALP on such a low primary vote.
See here:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-late-january-alp-increases-two-party-preferred-lead-as-one-nation-overtakes-the-liberal-party-for-the-first-time-as-coalition-splits
A little project I’ve been working on over summer comes to fruition:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/abalone-trafficking-charges-dropped-nsw-south-coast/106213172?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwPlV4xleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAo2NjI4NTY4Mzc5AAEeNO2MvZ-kiJfWfbIsFdRRDlgPmJGgUGoJ1-LoYuucJ0vfxQLEItwkIRUqVBA_aem_6dZw3vy4EH1mbeyz3IF67Q
The local lads will be chuffed with this:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/abalone-trafficking-charges-dropped-nsw-south-coast/106213172
Hard Being Green says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 6:28 pm
Interesting to see the discussions between the ACT Greens and Liberals are ongoing
I still don’t think it’ll happen but hopefully, if nothing else, it pushes Labor to do more on the issues that matter to Canberrans
___________________________________________________
What do you think these issues are? Asking as a Canberran.
10-13 yo kids shouldn’t be in jail.
William Bowe says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 7:31 pm
Here’s one.
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DemosAU-Federal-Poll-January-2026-FINAL.pdf
And as noted, Sky News will have a YouGov poll tomorrow.
__________
The voting intention by location is in uncharted waters for the rural areas. We can see why the Nationals were panicking.
I see ON’s PR firm The 7:30 Report is at it again
I’ve been watching some post-election and leadership 4Corners episodes where the politicians tend to vent a little.
It is just appalling how these people have abandoned good public policy for selfish personal ambition.
We’ve had 15 years of utter garbage served up to us.
In the week of January 19-25, 2026, the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for the ALP up 2% to 30.5% and One Nation support up 1.5% to 22.5% and ahead of the Liberal Party on 20% (down 2%) for the first time during the week the National Party dissolved the L-NP Coalition – at least for now. Primary support for National was up 0.5% to 2.5%.
Primary support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13% while Independent/ Other Parties were down 1.5% to 11.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey was conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,653 electors in the week of January 19-25, 2026.
On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 56.5% (up 3% from a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 43.5% (down 3%). When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1.5%) leading the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1.5%).
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-late-january-alp-increases-two-party-preferred-lead-as-one-nation-overtakes-the-liberal-party-for-the-first-time-as-coalition-splits
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 7:58 pm
I’ve been watching some post-election and leadership 4Corners episodes where the politicians tend to vent a little.
It is just appalling how these people have abandoned good public policy for selfish personal ambition.
We’ve had 15 years of utter garbage served up to us.
___________
I must say I am surprised at the placement of your inflection point. I thought you were a fan of minority government?
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:05 pm
In the week of January 19-25, 2026, the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for the ALP up 2% to 30.5% and One Nation support up 1.5% to 22.5% and ahead of the Liberal Party on 20% (down 2%) for the first time during the week the National Party dissolved the L-NP Coalition – at least for now. Primary support for National was up 0.5% to 2.5%.
Primary support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13% while Independent/ Other Parties were down 1.5% to 11.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey was conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,653 electors in the week of January 19-25, 2026.
On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 56.5% (up 3% from a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 43.5% (down 3%). When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1.5%) leading the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1.5%).
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-late-january-alp-increases-two-party-preferred-lead-as-one-nation-overtakes-the-liberal-party-for-the-first-time-as-coalition-splits
________
Huzzah! First post(ish)-Coalition poll.
The master deal maker will be filling his nappy over this…
Trump announces 2000% tariff on India tomorrow
Thanks, Hh.
coalition or Coalition? Nats: 2.5%, lol.
“On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 56.5% (up 3% from a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 43.5% (down 3%). When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1.5%) leading the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1.5%).”
———————————————–
Those suggesting ON preferences might flow to the ALP stronger than they did in 2025. This argument appears to be strengthened by this polls much higher 2PP for respondent allocated than 2025 election allocated preferences.
‘jt1983 says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 7:31 pm
You think Liberal voters would be thrilled with the idea of being beholden to the Greens? Or vice-versa?
Most of my Greens member friends are horrified at the idea of being in bed with one of the most right-wing Liberal branches in the country (despite Mark Parton’s sunny and relatively inoffensive demeanour). There are also massive, massive policy differences. The Libs want aggressive development and reduced red and green tape to do it, that’s just one. The Liberals really haven’t adjusted their policies which saw them badly hurt in 2020 – reduce rates, continue stamp duty phase out… but not cut spending? Would the Greens back the Liberals cutting back the increase in spending on health in the last Budget (which they voted for)?
Obviously, if the whole game is to get more concessions from the Government, go for it – but if they’re willing to roll the dice, I kind of respect the Greens for no longer pretending to not be a political party like any other.’
======================
It is hard seeing them come together to actually form a functioning government.
Right now I can’t think of a single major policy where there is not a huge divergence between the Greens and the Liberals.
IMO, they might be able to do some single issue horse trading along the lines of: we’ll support you on x if you support us on y.
IMO, particularly if this chatter comes to nothing, the main beneficiaries will the Pocock-style indies.
Anonymous Lurker says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 7:33 pm
Hey, all!
Roy Morgan just dropped a new poll.
ALP: 30.5% (+2%)
LIB: 20% (-2%)
NAT: 2.5% (+0.5%)
ON: 22.5% (+1.5%)
GRN: 13.0% (-0.5%)
Roy Morgan has One Nation ahead of the Liberals.
ALP – LIB 2PP: 56.5% – 43.5% (ALP +3%)
With 2025 election preferences, the ALP-LIB 2PP is 54.5% – 45.5% (up 1.5% for the ALP)
Interestingly, if the Coalition were retained, they and One Nation would be tied and not ahead. Also the high 2PP for the ALP on such a low primary vote.
See here:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-late-january-alp-increases-two-party-preferred-lead-as-one-nation-overtakes-the-liberal-party-for-the-first-time-as-coalition-splits
Now THIS looks more like nadia, nath. Hopefully they will reveal themselves soon enough for you. 😉
Are the Greens finally officially joining forces with the Liberals?
About time they made it official.
Speaking of The Greens, I saw an ad for the SA Greens today on one of the multitudinous channels on my Smart TV. They must be well-resourced to be able to spread themselves around to all corners of the country like this. I don’t even live in SA!
All I hope is that the SA electorate considers that, if they vote for The Greens, they may decide to form a Coalition with the Liberals if the numbers shape up fortuitously for them. 😉
Oh, and apparently The Greens can cure the algal bloom just by you voting for them!
So the Nats on 2.5 percent want to dictate LNP policy, and decide the Liberal leader….and then ultimately Australian policy.
Tell them their dreaming. Tell them to F… Off
I assume that all the movements in the latest Morgan poll are well within the MOE.
That said…
I assume that Hastie does not want to be the one who knifes Ley.
So he needs a stalking horse who is not in his gang.
In turn, that stalking horse needs a ‘reason’.
A couple more polls like this and the stalking horse will have a ‘reason’.
TPOF I’m thinking the main issues in Canberra at present are much the same as the rest of the country i.e. health, housing, education, public transport etc
Of course the ACT government is the local council as well so footpaths etc are all part of the mix as well
The biggest issue seems to be the state of the books though
Re the Morgan poll, great to see the LNP split reflected. When do they switch to a 2PP between Labor and One Nation?
I loved listening to this podcast this afternoon. Anthony Scaramucci says the whole ICE escalation in Minnesota would’ve come about because the Republicans wanted to seize the narrative back onto border security in order to shore up voters on their strong point: border security.
The visuals were supposed to show ICE agents detaining and deporting all those Somali welfare frauds amid leftist protestors against which they could paint the picture of Democrats in Minnesota being for the migrant welfare criminal cheats and ICE sweeping in to save the day and the taxpayers. This was supposed to buoy them and voters going into a midterm election year.
Instead they’ve overplayed their hands and 2 citizens with zero criminal records have ended up murdered. The ball is back in Dems court if they can manage to strike a home run with it (bigly doubt).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdfJpSqD1zg
“ Oh, and apparently The Greens can cure the algal bloom just by you voting for them!”
______
Negative ghost rider.
The Greens offer something infinitely better than a cure: the righteousness of striking a position in favour of a cure. In principle.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
Morgan reports a standalone Nat figure of 2.5 as part of the 22.5 but I believe this is just Nats outside Qld and takes no account of possible impact of Nats running separately rather than under LNP umbrella in that state.
Torchbearer @ #3086 Tuesday, January 27th, 2026 – 8:26 pm
It has always been thus with the Nationals. And it has always been thus with the Liberals. Sadly both parties are stuck in a toxic relationship and can’t see the forest for the trees.
Hard Being Green says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:28 pm
…
The biggest issue seems to be the state of the books though
…’
======================
Indeed. I can’t imagine the Greens and the Liberal budget ‘fixes’ being anything but miles apart.
I thought this was newsworthy – apparently not:
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-strengthening-partnerships-pacific-island-leaders
Nats 2.5%. Now that’s a bloody small tail wagging a bloody big dog.
The composite cure for South Australia’s algal blooms:
1. A complete rejig of farming and water management in the MDB.
2. Reversing global warming.
3. Stopping nutrient rich upwellings from upwelling.
Re the Morgan poll, great to see the LNP split reflected. When do they switch to a 2PP between Labor and One Nation?
There have been a few attempts but none so far have been able to truly reflect how One Nation would go against Labor in Urban, Regional and Rural seats across the board. One group tried to use the Hunter figures, but that has since been debunked. Someone else tried to use the last election preference flows to ON, but that bird won’t fly because the Coalition won’t do the same preference deal with ON next election. So maybe a 3PP but even that would probably have whiskers on it because of the same, how do you do the preferences, problem.
davidwh says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:33 pm
Nats 2.5%. Now that’s a bloody small tail wagging a bloody big dog.
Wouldn’t it be a bloody big tail having a massive effect on a bloody small dog, like a Chihuahua? 🙂
C@t we are in uncharted waters re polling. Other than Labor is comfortably ahead we know precious little about how Liberal/National/One Notion second preference will flow.
C@t isn’t the Liberal/National – Dog/Tail ratio 20/2.5?