Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: 52-48 (open thread)

Two polls find the aftermath of the Bondi attacks taking a substantial toll on Anthony Albanese’s personal standing, while one finds the One Nation primary vote edging ahead of the Coalition’s.

Newspoll for The Australian and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers have reported their first results for the year:

• Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at a seemingly robust 55-45, in from 58-42 in the last Newspoll way back in mid-November. However, the headline-grabber here is that One Nation is ahead of the Coalition on the primary vote: Labor is down four to 32%, the Coalition down three to 21%, One Nation are up seven to 22%, and the Greens are down one to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down five on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 53%, while Sussan Ley is respectively up two to 28% and up one to 56%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister narrows from 54-27 to 51-31. The sample for the poll was 1224 – as well as a full set of results for questions on leader attributes, we will have to wait on field work dates, though presumably it was conducted Monday to Friday.

• Resolve Strategic has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 52-48 from 54-46 in a poll conducted in the immediate wake of the Bondi shootings. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 30%, the Coalition steady on 28%, the Greens down two to 10% and One Nation up two to 18%. Anthony Albanese is down a further five points on approval to 35% and seven on disapproval to 56%, compounding an eight-point drop and six-point increase in the previous poll, and lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed substantially, from 41-26 to 33-29. Sussan Ley is down one on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 42%, despite her response to the Bondi attack being rated good by 53% and poor by 29%, compared with 32% and 56% for Albanese. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1800.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,877 thoughts on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: 52-48 (open thread)”

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  1. A lot of Labor folks were in despair on PB in the last 5 weeks after Bondi terrorist attack, where
    1. Instead of coming together to show solidarity with grieving Jewish people, the Australian media, L-NP, ON went on virulent attack on Albanese and his government.
    2. Albanese seems to be in a state of shock from the terrorist attack and political attack and appeared to be paralysed just after marriage honeymoon ended.
    3. Christmas festive season became a season of sorrow and turned sore for many because of the hatred spewed by opposition and media.
    4. They said Albanese is finished
    5. They said Josh Frydenburg is ‘Father of nation’s

    But then last week Albanese government introduced the Hate speech legislation demanded by opposition. Opposition opposed the legislation last Friday. Incomes Newspoll last Sunday, where ON pushed L-NP into 3rd position on PV and 2PP was 55-45 in ALP favour.

    Then Nationals told Albanese with their actions, don’t worry we are here to help you. In the process they exploded Coalition unity.
    To P1’s utter disbelief (P1 reference to Bradbury), Albanese comes a winner. 🙂

  2. I’d feel a little sorry for Ley had she not insisted with great urgency that an RC be held and legislation be enacted to counter hate speech. Well, be careful of what you wish for! I think she did the right thing in sacking three shadow ministers, thereby not flouting a long-standing convention. I further think that the Country Party will rejoin the coalition before parliament resumes in February, but if it doesn’t, she’ll have to tough it out with her own mob. I think she’ll be safe for a while, as who would want her job at this point in the political cycle? And, much to the surprise & chagrin of many pundits in the media, Albanese has come out of this debacle quite well, the experience gained from three decades in parliament standing him in good stead. He should never be underestimated. The coming polls should be interesting.

  3. The only countries that gain from a US invasion of Greenland are Russia and, to a lesser extent, China and North Korea. I wonder if Putin has been encouraging Trump? He’d like nothing better than the breakup of NATO, or the US leaving it.

  4. The Guardian is playing Chump’s speech at Davos live.

    What a bloody joke.

    Lies

    He just TACO’ed with regard to using force to take Greenland.

    He is obviously insane.

  5. Now there is a new fighter, the F47, but if he doesn’t like it it will have to have a different number. And then he wanders off to Biden and auto pens, and then how costs in Chumpistan are comong down.

  6. The most amusing, ridiculous head shaking moment from a very extensive list of moments since “Bondi” was the apparition of the bloviating Morrison returning to the stage, defending his honour and legacy!
    Frydenberg’s insertion in the aftermath of “Bondi” has helped neither the Liberals not Frydenberg.
    And the combined efforts of both the screeching from the “dead tree” media brigade and the “decimated” coalition attempting to gain political advantage from “Bondi” has proven itself among the most ill conceived political ” brain implosions/explosions” from a recent formidable list of political calamities.
    The PM Albanese has provided a sensible steady course during a very tumultuous time across the world.
    Some label the PM a villain, a politician, a member of the Labor Party, a Bradbury and “evil personified”.
    History will be much kinder and thankful for the performance of the “kid with a wog name”, a “housie” with a single mum, a Labor devotee, a Rabbitohs supporter and a great survivor of life’s challenges.
    Australia is a better place for the Albanese efforts!

  7. “Nationals quit shadow ministry entirely in historic Coalition split”
    The Coalition is in chaos after a dramatic night in Parliament, and Australia faces an uncertain political future. https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/nationals-call-snap-meeting-on-another-coalition-split-after-exodus/news-story/938a0442794b23fb6cf0feb589e83b1c
    No, Samantha, it isn’t uncertain at all. Australia is in for a certain political future. Certain not to
    have these utter useless wastes of space running the show for a good long while…

  8. What’s uncertain about it? Australia has a Government, it has a Parliament with it’s members and those members will vote on legislation and perform the various duties of Government.

    I don’t see how the reactionaries having yet another squabble make things Capital U “Uncertain” for Australia’s political future.

  9. I think it’s funny we have a poster called Ghost of Whitlam on here considering this seems to be the most politically and socially fraught time since the 70’s and possibly even before that.

    MJ the musical is also having a run in Melbourne I see.

  10. So many quotes in the Australian, but this one reminds us that the right in Australia prefer to run culture wars rather than the fundamentals that actually keeps us free, protection from poverty at all stages of our lives . Because of course the new hate speech laws do absolutely nothing to impinge our freedom.

    “This wasn’t some superannuation reform, this was something that could impact people’s freedoms; of course it needed to go back and be ticked off properly,” one senior Nationals MP said.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jumping-at-shadows-how-leys-liberals-missed-the-nats-walk-out-pact-over-labor-antisemitism-law/news-story/1670c8db9e52dacefc043b466cde0315

  11. Mavis @ 6.49pm
    It doesn’t get much worse….
    Looking from the other side, I believe it couldn’t get much better.
    Listening to ranting of David Littlebrain, today, yesterday and for much of the past six weeks he should leave the Coalition.
    Leysy Susssan could survive as Liberal leader, for a few more weeks, if she tore up the Loalition Agreement until after they lose the 2028 Federal Election.
    It could be better still if No Notion flip a few of the Country Party seats, too.

  12. Cubism 2 9.05pm
    I posted on Tuesday (and before) that Albanese was a master tactician and splitting the proposed legislation was the sensible way to proceed in Parliament.
    I accepted all of the doubts and those questioning my sanity to suggest and believe that the proposed action would succeed.
    A master play.
    He manoeuvred his two Bills through The Senate, successfully.
    He managed to wedge The Greens, The Liberals and the Counts.
    The Liberals and Counts are tearing each other apart which is an even better response.
    The Government should recall Parliament sooner because I can’t wait to see the theatre of Parliament.

  13. Sally Sara had Colin Boyce on today, first question – will you be joining One Nation?

    He replied to the question, and every one that followed, that it’s a day of mourning so politics can wait..

    Looks like things will be on hold until tomorrow

  14. WeWantPaulsays:
    Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 1:24 pm
    …………………..As for the specific question, I think I’d need more information. But I don’t think jail would be the right answer for a first or evem second offence.
    =================================================
    I agree with a great many of your posts; however, I would suggest that “jail” is never the right answer (unless you are quoting an American). The word in English is “gaol”.

  15. WeWantPaulsays:
    Wednesday, January 21, 2026 at 4:29 pm
    I hope everyone reads Randa’s article linked in full.
    ========================================
    Yes, I was leaning towards freedom of speech anyway; but I had some concerns based on things she was accused of saying.
    Having read the full article I am now much more reassured that my original thoughts were correct.
    Much surprisement that the snippets used to discredit her were without context and very misleading regarding her position and intent.

  16. Understandable and heartbreaking rage from the US today, all backgrounded by a huge orange coloured rage generator that is running interference with the daily news/rage cycle. Albo doing things his way thankfully.
    Noted a ‘commentator’ suggesting that Special Arctic Forces were being used in the state of Minnesota as training for Greenland ops…my pick for the demented contribution of the day.

  17. steve davis says:
    Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 12:19 am

    Albo is always underestimated and its bloody true.
    ——————————-

    It is funny as he may have inadvertently started the destruction of the labor party as well.
    I can see down the track the liberals or what will be left of them and labor joining a coalition, as they are near identical anyway. Woke as anything and only interested in controlling people.

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