Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

Yet another poll result pointing to a stampede from the Coalition to One Nation.

Roy Morgan has published a weekly result for the second week in a row, perhaps suggesting a return to old form after its post-election practice of combining its regular surveying into large-sample monthly results. The latest result has Labor down one-and-a-half points on last week to 28.5% and the Coalition down fully six-and-a-half points to 24%, with a six-point increase pushing One Nation to 21% and bringing the pollster closer into line with its rivals. The Greens are steady on 13.5%. Labor leads 53.5-46.5 on respondent allocated preferences and 53-47 when preference flows from the last election are applied, in both cases out from 52-48 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715 – the full release has two-party preferred breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, which unfortunately does not extend to primary votes as the monthly aggregations were doing.

The Daily Mail reports a Freshwater Strategy poll of 1050 respondents has Labor on 33% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 11% and One Nation on 19%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Pauline Hanson records a plus six net approval rating, with Anthony Albanese on minus nine and Sussan Ley on minus five, and Albanese leading Ley 45-32 on preferred prime minister. “About 75%” supported “a temporary cap on migration while housing and infrastructure catches up, while 81% backed stricter character tests and background checks for visa applicants”. We may see full details of the poll reported on the company’s site at a later time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,199 thoughts on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. As usual missed the thread jump.

    So many quotes in the Australian, but this one reminds us that the right in Australia prefer to run culture wars rather than the fundamentals that actually keeps us free, protection from poverty at all stages of our lives . Because of course the new hate speech laws do absolutely nothing to impinge our freedom.

    Oh and the Salty tears of the Australian Newspaper’s BTL commentators, so so sweet and salty.
    “This wasn’t some superannuation reform, this was something that could impact people’s freedoms; of course it needed to go back and be ticked off properly,” one senior Nationals MP said.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jumping-at-shadows-how-leys-liberals-missed-the-nats-walk-out-pact-over-labor-antisemitism-law/news-story/1670c8db9e52dacefc043b466cde0315

  2. Divorce proceedings.

    At what point do the Country Party & Conservative Party decide to run candidates in each others seats… to give the voters a Democratic choice instead of having a corrupt Black Jack backdoor agreement between them

  3. Trump keeps banging on about how incredibly powerful and capable the US military is with him in charge.

    But it appears that the US markets are more powerful still. Perhaps he should invite Jerome Powell to join his new Board of Peace.

    PS Mr President, ask Rubio or someone else from the State Department to explain to you how, if you keep insulting the leaders of foreign countries, it creates enormous political difficulties for them to strike deals with you. It’s nothing like screwing over other bidders for real estate deals in Queens.

  4. It’s probably not wise to try and rationalise the actions of the irrational or to predict the future behavior of the aforementioned. On the other hand, any incorrect predictions can be blamed on said irrationality.

    I don’t think this changes Ms Ley’s position a great deal. It is strengthened in the short-term but the serious contenders who are biding their time, and not making hastie errors, will continue doing so.

    The focus in the coming days should be on the Nats. There’re two broad pathways they can take:
    1. Dump Littleproud and form a new Coalition.
    2. Remain a separate party, which slowly withers and dies.

    Of course, they’ll probably find another a path, invisible to the rational observer, to meander down.

  5. It is now becoming clear that ignoring policy(I mean, you could be doing so many better things with the time) and jumping on anything that might be turned into a political advantage without a positive strategy before hand , is a sure way to ruin a political party. Problem is…not your own party!

  6. Sounds like the terrorists and criminals will know where to go to get their guns now:

    “Queensland won’t be going down the path of gun buyback, because it doesn’t progress

    action on

    antisemitism and hate, and it doesn’t focus on keeping guns out of the hands of terrorists and criminals,” Crisafulli told reporters in the central Queensland city of Rockhampton.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/gun-buyback-doesn-t-address-antisemitism-and-hatred-queensland-premier-says-20260121-p5nvs9.html

    Um, it doesn’t address antisemitism and hatred…because it’s a tools of the trade gun buyback! 🙄

  7. Also, it looks like the people of NSW have found out that Kelli Sloane wasn’t under the Bondi Beach footbridge as the bullets were flying, after all.

  8. Re the National Party. They’ve clearly got massive problems with One Nation, but the stunt they pulled yesterday risks making them look weak and irrelevant. Even many of their most conservative voters have been paying enough attention to realise that it was the right side of politics – including both Littleproud and Pauline – that kicked up the fuss about the anti-hate legislation being urgent.

    I’m not sure what’s going to happen with the Liberal leadership. The Liberal Party has previously been through the humiliation of having their leader chosen for them by the Country Party (Gorton in 1967). Even though that was before most of the current Liberal MPs were born, I’m not sure they’d want to go through it again. Hastie doesn’t appear to be in a position to challenge. And the invisible Taylor is known by one and all to have close ties to the Nats, and risks being seen as a puppet if he were to be installed now.

    Ley might be able to struggle on for a while to come

  9. President Trump said he was dropping his threat to impose tariffs on European allies as part of a pressure campaign to gain control of Greenland. Mr. Trump wrote on social media that he had reached an unspecified “framework” of a deal involving Greenland and the broader Arctic region during a meeting with Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/21/us/trump-davos-greenland-news

    Like with everything, Trump TACOs if you push back. Good on the European leaders for standing up to him.

  10. Confessions says:
    Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 7:16 am
    C@tmomma @ #10 Thursday, January 22nd, 2026 – 7:07 am

    Also, it looks like the people of NSW have found out that Kelli Sloane wasn’t under the Bondi Beach footbridge as the bullets were flying, after all.

    Did she say that she was?

    NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane has recounted supporting victims and survivors of the Bondi Beach terrorist attack, arriving on the scene as shots were still being fired on Sunday evening.

    “I was not far from here at a Hanukkah event just down the road,” she recalled on Monday morning, returning to Bondi the day after the attack. “I was on stage about to give a speech when the crowd dispersed and people started running – they’d heard gunfire.

    “I got bundled into the closest vehicle, which was a local ambulance – a CHS ambulance, which is run by the Jewish community. When I jumped in that car, the driver had heard that his colleague had been shot. And he said ‘put a seatbelt on’ and we just flew down here.

    “We arrived within minutes of the aftermath of the shooting and, not knowing what had happened, we parked underneath that bridge. I hopped out of the car and saw a little boy and his dad cowering under the bridge. I got them into the car. I said ‘stay here, you’re going to be safe here’.

    “When I arrived there, I could still hear a couple of shots. I’m not sure where it came from.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/we-held-the-hands-of-people-passing-away-sloane-recalls-bondi-attack-20251215-p5nnr9

    Not strictly, I guess. But to say you got there while shots were still being fired…

  11. Seat warmer Ley is serving the purpose of making Hasties transition easier.

    Labor lite lib moderates will not be tolerated by Nats and the one nation vote is there for the stealing if Libs start acting like libs.

    Dei leaders leave that to labor!

    Trump btw has been taking the piss on Greenland as he loves showing up the weakness of Europe who is woke and failing.Gave it to them at Davos.

    Unemployment figures out today in Aus.

  12. Sturm und Drung today at the Opposition Oracle…

    COALITION CRUMBLES
    Ley pleads for Nats to stay as walkouts leave her leadership in serious peril
    Sussan Ley has desperately pleaded with the Nationals to stay in the Coalition after their entire frontbench walked out over antisemitism laws, leaving her leadership hanging by a thread.

    SARAH ISON, DENNIS SHANAHAN and RICHARD FERGUSON

  13. So, Trump’s Greenland threat saw billions of $ of Us treasuries dumped as a real and lasting consequence.

    And then what did he get as a ‘deal’ that has caused him to taco? Greenland have agreed to hear him out in negotiating a defence and economic deal.

    Greenland would have heard him out if he just walked up and said ‘I would like to chat please’

    Idiot

  14. Didn’t someone say sport is a microcosm of the world / society..

    Fun video on ski jumping scandal

    https://youtu.be/vtMvvGpHzBw

    There’s a comment at 34:30.. “ we’ve pretty much lost the sense of shame”… never a truer word spoken…. from cheating Lance Armstrong , to cheating Tom Brody to cheating Steve Smith aka Sandpaper Steve..

    Given what’s happening in Greenland & Davos now timing on this video couldn’t be better

  15. Sceptic: “At what point do the Country Party & Conservative Party decide to run candidates in each others seats… to give the voters a Democratic choice instead of having a corrupt Black Jack backdoor agreement between them”
    —————————————————————————–
    I don’t think we are all that far away from the Libs turning on the Nats. Outside of Queensland, the Nats would struggle to retain most of their other seats without the Coalition agreement: especially their NSW and Victorian senate seats. I reckon they’d be certain to hang onto Parkes, and probably Mallee, but all the others would be vulnerable to the Libs.

    Outside Queensland, where they will continue to benefit from the strong anti-Brisbane sentiment in the bush, I reckon the Nats are doomed. So-called “rural Australia” is increasingly becoming as urbanised as the cities. An ever-increasing proportion of the rural population lives in large towns, or in small towns that serve as a commuter belt for the large towns. Albury-Wodonga, Wagga Wagga, Toowoomba, Tamworth, Bathurst, Orange, Byron Bay and Dubbo are examples of the former, while examples of the latter include places like Junee, Crows Nest, Uralla, and umpteen towns within driving distance of Bathurst, Orange and Byron Bay.

    The “urbanised” people of the bush are generally more conservative than those of the cities, but typically not as conservative as the hard core of National Party voters. They’ll vote for the Nats if given no other choice, but would probably prefer the Libs or else independents. Hence, for instance, Sussan Ley was able to defeat the Nat candidate in Farrer in 2001. I doubt that seat will ever go back to the Nats. When MicMac retires from Riverina, a Lib candidate will be a strong chance in that electorate as well, as they will be in New England next election. And the Nats are facing an ever-growing threat from Independents and/or Greens in their coastal NSW seats. And they hold at least two of their Senate seats (NSW and Vic) purely through the goodwill of the Libs.

    The Nats are heading towards becoming purely a Queensland-based party IMO (where, in a rather Kafkaesque situation, they theoretically don’t exist). And, even in that fortress, One Nation represents a major threat to them.

  16. Re the National Party. They’ve clearly got massive problems with One Nation, but the stunt they pulled yesterday risks making them look weak and irrelevant.

    meher baba,
    They look that way now maybe but do you see the power move Littleproud attempted to play? He wanted to be the titular Opposition leader by demanding that Ley accept his ultimatum to keep the rebel Nats on her shadow front bench, despite breaking one of the cardinal rules of the Westminster system of government. And if they had gotten away with it, no doubt they would do it again. So the Nats would then end up with all the benefits of being in the Opposition and the Coalition, with none of the downsides. Which is essentially, the possibility of being in government with their very narrow range of support.

  17. Confessions says:
    Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 7:32 am
    Thanks C@t. I recall those statements from her at the time. But how has it come to light that she wasn’t there?

    Wasn’t where?

    She was under the bridge. However, the disingenuous statement from her was that she could still hear bullets. But she says she got there in the aftermath. Which would have been after the detective behind the tree shot the father. So which bullets could she hear? In the ‘aftermath’ the son wasn’t still firing, iirc. He had been disarmed by Ahmed el Ahmed.

  18. Can’t say I’m sorry..Dutton made unforced errors but everything happening now is albo digging a trench and sussssan walking straight into it.

    The aim of any labor government is not just to win and govern, but bring UTTER RUIN on the fashos as St Mark McGowan has done. The Perth mob still haven’t recovered. I know his family would have more class but what I would carve on Picton’s gravestone is “Left them with only 2 seats!”

  19. She was under the bridge. However, the disingenuous statement from her was that she could still hear bullets. But she says she got there in the aftermath. Which would have been after the detective behind the tree shot the father. So which bullets could she hear? In the ‘aftermath’ the son wasn’t still firing, iirc. He had been disarmed by Ahmed el Ahmed.

    ++++

    Newsflash Liberals are lying filth. More at 10!

  20. Jim Chalmers wades in to bayonet the wounded…

    “Well, the Coalition is collapsing. I think whatever the Nationals decide shortly, it’s become very clear the Coalition is smoking ruin. They put internal politics before public safety this week in what I think was a shameful way, and they’re paying a price for that,” Chalmers told ABC Radio National this morning.

    “They’re divided. They’re divisive, they’re dysfunctional, they can’t stand each other they can’t work together.”

    He added: “I think Sussan Ley is obviously on borrowed time. But to be fair to her, all of the alternatives to Sussan Ley and the Coalition are worse. And so I think any Australian watching the developments in the Coalition this week would conclude the Coalition is a three ring circus. It’s not an alternative government.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-resign-live-updates-coalition-in-crisis-as-national-mps-quit-frontbench-en-masse-after-littleproud-s-bombshell-letter-to-sussan-ley-20260121-p5nvzb.html

  21. So as the Country Party Liberal marriage implodes we have the prospect of Pauline increasing the stock of canned beetroot on her fish shop shelves

  22. “Thanks C@t. I recall those statements from her at the time. But how has it come to light that she wasn’t there?”
    She was in Bondi. It is certain that she was at the scene shortly after the attack. She did an interview for Sky News at the scene describing it. Their van was shown on footage and pictures. The man with child that went into their van made a statement that corroborates her statement about helping that man & child. It’s possible she heard the gunshots as they were arriving.

    However, the statement that the Jewish Ambulance with her in it arrived and parked under the bridge while the attack was still happening, and that she jumped out with gunshots still happening to rescue the man & child doesn’t appear to match video of the incident, which appears to show that the Jewish ambulance doesn’t arrive under the bridge until 4 minutes after the second gunman is taken down. Police are already on top of the bridge with the crowd of people when they arrive.

  23. I’d missed this earlier..

    SMH.
    Trump’s Biden moment on world stage as he repeatedly calls Greenland ‘Iceland’
    Michael KoziolJanuary 22, 2026 — 5:58am
    Watching Donald Trump speak in Davos, you couldn’t help but wonder: what would Joe Biden make of this?

    Specifically, what would Biden make of Trump mistakenly referring to Greenland as “Iceland” no fewer than four times – something he’d also done the day before in Washington.

  24. At least she has heard of the Laws of Motion…

    Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie has quoted Newton’s laws of motion in explaining the rift within the Coalition, incorrectly attributing the principles of physics to Albert Einstein.

    “The leader of the opposition was told, once the three

    Nationals

    senators in her shadow ministry tendered our resignations, that if she chose to accept, that the entire National Party shadow ministry would be also tendering their resignation,” McKenzie told journalists at Parliament House in Canberra this hour.

    “As Einstein said, for every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. She made that decision knowing what the consequences would be, and you’ve seen that play out.”

  25. What the frig is a Jewish ambulance?

    Anyway how did we go from the Murdfax position that albo was gone within days and Labor would be forced to call an early election to there being no opposition within days?

    Someone has been lying to me.

  26. Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie has quoted Newton’s laws of motion in explaining the rift within the Coalition, incorrectly attributing the principles of physics to Albert Einstein

    ++++

    She’s no Einstein herself

  27. Good morning, all.

    But how good is the morning, really. What challenges does Albanese face?

    Systematically diminished democratic freedoms.
    A near monopoly of MSM owners utterly antagonistic to Labor.
    A rampant but badly fractured rabid right.
    An doctrinaire rabid left that is at the very least holding its own.
    A rational centre that is struggling to hold it all together.
    Global falling birth rates and ageing population.
    Increasing climate change impacts.
    An increasingly fragile global debt structure.
    Increasing barriers to trade.
    The likely loss of significant export earners.
    Caligula II, Xi and Putin playing global bullies.
    Ongoing genocides in Sudan, Myanmmar, Israel and China.
    General processes in which capital replaces labour: AI, robotics, machine scale, and automation.
    Decreasing national security and defence security.
    Rampant feral animals.
    Rampant feral weeds.
    And… not forgetting the Anthropocene Extinction Event.

    We have very low unemployment, very high participation rates, rising real wages, a stable inflation rate, rising life expectancy, a growing wealth gap between rich and poor, a closing gender pay gap, and severe CoL issues for a significant segment of our society. We have a growing underclass.

  28. Morning all. So overnight the Nationals went over the precipice, but Trump pulled back from doing so.

    If as PK suggested self interest explains everything in politics, then the motives could be financial in both cases.

    The Nationals might be reacting to orders from Gina Reinhardt as I don’t understand where any particular love for the Jewish community has come from in their case.

    Trump might indeed be reacting to financial pressures. He doesn’t care about law or international opinion. But the EU dumping US bonds would alarm his rich donors.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-22/trump-us-debt-carney-davos-fractured-world-order/106254272

    With regard to the US currency, interest rates and stock market, I think it may be too late. The damage is already done. Trump’s actions regarding Jerome Powell have already shown he will let populism overrule good economic policy. Investors and foreign governments have noted that. There is no reason to believe he will change in the next three years.

  29. Coreleone

    The dissonance in the media is intense – they have spent weeks convincing the public that Albo and Labor was mortally wounded, and the Opposition was principled and resurgent.

    Yet the truth of the matter is that the Coalition was splintering under weak and desperate leadership.

  30. World News& Politics Patrol:

    Venezuela receives $300M in proceeds from first US oil sale: https://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-oil-sale-us-delcy-rodriguez/a-75585844

    Trump says Greenland framework with NATO involves mineral rights for U.S.: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/21/trump-says-greenland-framework-with-nato-involves-mineral-rights-for-us.html

    Trump Threatens Canada After Carney Draws Standing Ovation at Davos: https://newrepublic.com/post/205486/trump-threatens-canada-davos-carney-rupture-world-order

    Trump says no tariffs next month after agreeing outline of Greenland deal: https://www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/trump-says-no-tariffs-next-month-after-agreeing-outline-of-greenland-deal/a300124713.html

    Farage inadvertently breached MPs’ rules, says watchdog: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce9y1pvy8e1o

    Trump Mixes Up Iceland and Greenland in Incoherent Davos Speech: https://newrepublic.com/post/205475/donald-trump-mixes-iceland-greenland-davos-speech

    71 Percent of Americans Say US Is ‘Out of Control’ Under Trump: https://www.newsweek.com/americans-us-out-control-trump-poll-11391455

    Trump Tries to Keep Second Set of Damning Files Secret Forever: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-tries-to-keep-second-set-of-damning-files-secret-forever/

    Judge declines to appoint special master to oversee DOJ’s release of remaining Epstein files: https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-declines-appoint-special-master-oversee-dojs-release/story?id=129419478

    Doge improperly shared sensitive social security data, DoJ court filing reveals: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/21/doge-social-security-data

    Man charged in ‘largest jewelry heist in U.S. history,’ avoids trial by getting deported: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-01-21/jewelry-heist-deportation

  31. “What the frig is a Jewish ambulance”.
    It’s one from the Hatzolah (known as Hatzalah in some countries) Jewish medical charity/community group. In NSW they seem to have an accreditation under the Health Services Act under the ability of the Health Secretary to appoint non-NSW Health Service people to perform duties on an “honorary” basis.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatzalah

  32. Radical Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir is vowing to take Labor to the High Court in order to avoid being labelled a hate organisation, as Jewish leaders warn Anthony Albanese and Sussan Ley that they will need to revisit hate speech laws after the antisemitism royal commission.
    After the hate groups crackdown passed with the support of the Liberals amid a Coalition split, Hizb ut-Tahrir rapidly dismantled its online presence. Its website and affiliated media platforms were taken down within hours of the bill passing parliament.
    But its spokesman blamed the laws on Israel and “Zionists” and said its lawyers would be pursuing to have any hate ban struck down.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/hizb-uttahrir-scrubs-online-presence-after-new-hategroup-laws-pass/news-story/04dea6f6978b5ce77173ef846f610a49?amp

  33. I do not know if it has been referenced here but there is an article by Ian Verender, a usually astute contributor, regarding USA debt

    In scanning to identify any required questioning the only omission is the domicile of this debt and, to be petty, identification of under whose watch is has most accumulated

    What we do know is that Trump Mark 1 tax cuts led to deficits and those deficits accumulated lifting debt at unprecedented pace – and this term Trump has attempted to correct his budget deficit employing Musk and by other measures

    This is the reason Trump pressures for interest rate cuts but, as pointed out, despite the Cash Rate falling the Yield on Treasury notes increases – and this impacts globally

    Accentuated by the fall in the parity of its currency

    America is approaching a failed State

    At the very least in Australia we see near enough balanced budgets across governments federal and State – and we see the benefit of investment into public assets in turn invested into public amenity

    America has a black hole consuming itself accentuated by a baboon in White House – in fact that is insulting to baboons which defer to the rules of the jungle

  34. The Nationals are at a big risk of being “the boy who cries wolf”. If they keep quitting the coalition because of a small disagreements with Liberals, one day the Liberals will just let it happen.

    Until that time the Liberals will be under the thumb of the Nationals.

  35. David

    The Verrender article is the one I linked at 8:07am.

    This debt argument is why it is so absurd that Trump tries to argue USA gets no benefit from running the global financial system. USA gets a huge benefit in paying lower interest rates on its otherwise very high debt.

    I wonder if somebody warned Trump to tone down his Greenland rhetoric on the way to Davos? I doubt he is smart enough to understand it himself.

  36. Hmmm Sloan was seen wrestling the gun and giving a couple of judo chops!

    Ley cactus,Sloan cactus the other one in VIC going backwards.DEI and libs a disaster.

  37. According to GA, the OECD say we are broadly on track to meet our 2030 emissions target. This is not especially noteworthy, the figures from the DCCEEW have been saying that for over a year. However, the media treat that as fake news. It’s only true if Mathias says so.

  38. Confessions says:
    Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 7:32 am
    Thanks C@t. I recall those statements from her at the time. But how has it come to light that she wasn’t there?

    _____

    The ambulance arrived about 4 minutes after the second gunman was felled.

    The only aspect of Sloane’s story that doesn’t stack up was her account of still hearing a couple of gunshots. I suspect that was on account of a sensory overload on her part, where the stress and anxiety of the moment made her confuse any loud bang for further gunfire. Understandable, IMO.

  39. What the frig is a Jewish ambulance?
    —————————
    The Coalition tried the anti-semitic ambulance on their political fortunes……. and now they need all the kings horses and all of his men.

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