The Financial Review has the results of a large-sample poll from RedBridge Group, the second pollster to take the field post-election after Roy Morgan. The results are not far off Roy Morgan’s: Labor on 37%, compared with 34.6% at the election; the Coalition on 31%, compared with 31.8%; and the Greens on 11%, compared with 12.2%. Labor is credited with a 55.5-44.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8 – lower than I might have expected based on preference flows from the recent election, but perhaps explicable by One Nation accounting for a larger share of “others”. Breakdowns are more balanced than you might expect with regard to gender, but results by age tell a familiar story of the Coalition vote descending from 44% among the 65+ cohort to 19% among 18-to-34, the Greens rising from 2% to 24%, and Labor fairly consistent across the board. The poll was conducted “late June” from a sample of 4036.
Another item of federally relating polling emerges from a report by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald on debate within the Liberal Party over whether to challenge independent Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote win in Bradfield in court. Local branch presidents are calling on the party to put up the money, but others consider this “a risk financially and politically”. The report cites polling conducted in mid-June for Climate 200 which suggests Boele would likely win a by-election resulting from a legal challenge, with her primary vote up from 27.0% at the election to 33.2%, with Gisele Kapterian’s 37.3% comparing with an election result of 38.0%.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 6:25 pm
Entropy:
I was quoting Milo Tully who has repeatedly referred to a ‘Gazza’ in their comment.
If it was meant to refer to Gaza then I just wish people would learn how to spell.
————————————————————–
Your post might have been why that post got a spelling re-edit then.
@Entropy – “Still I think Victoria should reject the Modi option and not bomb NSW over this.”
We are still mad about NSW shipping us COVID, but I think we’re prepared to accept it was a lone wolf malcontent in this case rather than deliberate malevolence like with St Gladys (yet again I am amused at the blinkered NSW pundits who thought even before the corruption finding that Gladys would play well as a Federal leader after COVID).
If we were going to attack it would have been years ago over the monopolisation of the Test cricket team by NSW anyway.
FS: “Ven, “if he’s muslim he’s a terrorist ” ”
I wouldn’t have brought it up myself, but that’s exactly the way i took it when i read it. That’s a case of think before you type imo. Thinking violent anti-semitism is only terrorism if they’re Muslim is definitely a take. One might even say it’s a take that is borne out of extended and unfiltered consumption of US news media.
This link is to an interesting but sad story about a career professional being driven out of the US FBI on “Trumped up” reasons.
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that
The Trump administration is doing enormous harm to US intelligence and security agencies. If this goes on the value of Five Eyes will be degraded.
Musk can’t be US president. He is not a naturally born citizen.
Neither can there be a third presidential term…
”
Stoogey Lurkersays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 3:51 pm
This is almost a week old, but still …
“I don’t pretend to understand the rules now prevailing in our political jungle. Far more than ever before in my life it seems an exercise in pure and corrupt power, but even that power is operating only half-logically. This new bill does everything it can to kill off solar and wind power, including by imposing a sweeping new tax on them that appeared out of nowhere over the weekend. In their place it adds yet more subsidies for that 18th century technology, coal. Sun and wind accounted for more than 90 percent of new electric generation last year in this country, and around the world. It’s the cheapest power on planet earth; it’s clearly where the planet is heading; it’s our only serious hope for fighting the spiking temperature of our planet.
I don’t really think those, or any, arguments matter at the moment. So it is more out of a sense of duty than of hope that I urge you to get on the phone this morning and make one last set of calls to your Senators. Here’s the link and the numbers we’ve been using for days at Third Act. Perhaps it will make a difference, but if it doesn’t then acting out of duty is a good thing nonetheless. I believe that—I’m not certain why, but I do.”
https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/more-from-a-sense-of-duty
”
America is f***ed. Not only that they are intentionally destroying the world.
America is internationally destroying itself. They don’t give a shit about the world. The mistake is believing they ever did.
Pisays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 7:17 pm
America is internationally destroying itself. They don’t give a shit about the world.
_____________________
They can’t be that bad if Albo wants to double down on the alliance …?
“intentionally”
integrity: “They can’t be ”
No one cares what the liberals think about that, which means no one cares what you think about that.
Pi @ #750 Sunday, July 6th, 2025 – 6:56 pm
Musk isn’t eligible to run for president. But I do wonder whether his party forays are going to expose just how unpopular he’s made himself with his Trump/DOGE efforts.
Confessions: “Musk isn’t eligible to run for president. ”
As if they care. I don’t know why people keep on insisting that there are rules that these people must follow.
Pi @ #761 Sunday, July 6th, 2025 – 7:32 pm
If they don’t care about Musk being eligible to run for president, they won’t care about Trump running for a third term, which would be much more likely.
“lone wolf malcontent”
On the current evidence so far it seems most likely. Though it obviously has similarity with the crime in December 2024. Which CCTV showed three people were involved in. I’m sure the police will be looking very closely at movement of this person at that time. As it wouldn’t surprise me greatly if he was one of those three.
“Musk can’t be US president. He is not a naturally born citizen.”
He’s not saying he will run, he’s going to run candidates to try and control Congress or at least a balance of power in Congress) or so he says).
“As if they care. I don’t know why people keep on insisting that there are rules that these people must follow.”
I don’t think Trump’s tame judges are going to relax that requirement so that Elon can run against him.
It remains to be seen how far Trump and co will try to push it, with the midterms next year looming as the obvious first major test of whether the US still clings to democracy or not.
In light passenger EV news:
+ Global EV sales continue to grow. Tesla’s Y, despite falling sales is still the best seller. BYD has 10 of the top 20:
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/07/03/global-ev-sales-plugin-vehicles-reach-25-share/
+ Australian BEV sales declined slightly:
https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australias-best-selling-evs-in-the-first-half-of-2025
+ Rare photos inside a BYD factory:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/30/style/edward-burtynsky-china-africa-snap
In electric bus news:
+ Perth is rolling out 90 locally assembled buses over the next eight months:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-06/ev-buses-join-perth-s-wider-suburban-network/105500068
+ Scania is building more buses for SA:
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/07/01/scania-adds-electric-trucks-buses-to-south-australian-fleet/
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 7:29 pm
Pi @ #750 Sunday, July 6th, 2025 – 6:56 pm
It’s hilarious that the choice for the next republican presidential candidate might be a third trump presidency or Musk.
Musk isn’t eligible to run for president. But I do wonder whether his party forays are going to expose just how unpopular he’s made himself with his Trump/DOGE efforts.
==============================================================
Neither Trump or Musk are eligible under the current constitution of USA.
Kirsdarke @ #763 Sunday, July 6th, 2025 – 7:35 pm
Musk is about as popular as the One BB Bill that just got passed.
And look how that went in Wisconsin recently.
fess: “Musk is about as popular as the One BB Bill that just got passed.”
You mean that like that wildly unpopular crazy guy that just got elected? You know who was also wildly unpopular at this point in the year 2020? Bush.
I don’t know man… it seems to me like some people don’t recognise that these people know that they’re hypocrites. They know it. They don’t care. In fact, they use their hypocrisy as a weapon.
When Netanyahu says attacks on places of worship are a hate crime. I assume he doesn’t mean Church of Saint Porphyrius which he destroyed killing 18 people or the 100’s of Mosques he has flattened and the untold death toll of the people sheltering in them.
“The reprehensible antisemitic attacks, with calls of ‘death to the IDF’ and an attempt to attack a place of worship, are severe hate crimes that must be uprooted,” he said.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/netanyahu-condemns-reprehensible-antisemitic-attacks-in-melbourne-20250706-p5mctx.html
Quote: “As surely as the Lord lives, the man who did this must die! He must pay for that lamb four times over, because he did such a thing and had no pity. Then Nathan said to David, You are the man! “
I can’t see who the new Musk party would exactly appeal to. Sure, Tech bros but that is like 5% of voters and they often don’t vote. There does seem to a lot of over lap with the Libertarians. He would be better off funding the Libertarians as they already have ballot access in most states.
bsf: “I can’t see who the new Musk party would exactly appeal to. ”
I remember when people said that about trump.
Entropy . Yes, the concept that those who rule should bother with any sort of logic or consistent arguments or values has long past. Goebbels would be embarassed by current leaders and there PR dummies.
Actually, politics, local and international is an area where AI avatars could replace the sociopaths and it would be hard to tell the difference . Maybe AI would occasionally reveal itself by slipping into truth or logic or consistency
”
MABwMsays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 6:03 pm
Nick says:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 3:08 pm
“Today’s announcement that failed former Labor Premier Anastasia Palaszczuk would be appointed to the board of Australia Post is treating Australians like mugs.”
Failed… what? Thats like saying John Howard was a failed PM
——————//————/——
John Howard was a failed Prime Minister. He was a war criminal. He gifted us structural deficits, squandered the mining boom and introduced hyper partisan hate politics. He did do gun reform, but failed every other metric.
He even delivered stagflation as treasurer.
Palusczuc lost an election. Not same same.
”
Anna P did not lose a election at all. She was a winner through and through after she became Labor leader till she resigned as Premier like Dan Andrews.
PI – Yeah, but ultimately had the Republican party behind him. And that means organisation and people willing to help. Starting a fresh is a whole different story – vetting and recruiting will take time and trust building.
“If we were going to attack it would have been years ago over the monopolisation of the Test cricket team by NSW anyway.”
Is Graham Yallop the last Victorian to captain the Australian test team? Maybe another revolution may yield a fill in opportunity.
Hopefully Musk’s new party splits the Republican vote between the cowboy capitalists and the MAGA crowd, keeping both groups out of power.
Bibi demanding the synagogue arsonist be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Not what’s currently happening to him, then.
“John Howard was a failed Prime Minister. He was a war criminal. He gifted us structural deficits, squandered the mining boom and introduced hyper partisan hate politics. He did do gun reform, but failed every other metric.”
Howards goal was to crush workers and give more power to the wealthy elite.
I think he did pretty well.
Stoogey Lurker
As children die in Texas, a MAGA candidate tweets, “Fake flooding. Fake. Fake. Fake.”
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/5/2331918/-As-children-die-in-Texas-a-MAGA-candidate-tweets-Fake-flooding-Fake-Fake-Fake?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“What kind of person pushes a weather conspiracy theory while some families mourn the loss of loved ones, and others still await news they fear in their souls will tear them apart? The answer is a monster. An evil, unempathetic, inhumane shit. A vile, indecent bastard.
Such is Kandiss Taylor. A MAGA candidate for US Representative from Georgia. This flint-hearted shrike heard the news of the floods in Texas and took to Twitter. Not to offer compassion and condolences. Not even to offer the usual anodyne “thoughts and prayers.” But instead, to offer a barbulous screed so insensitive that even Trump would be loath to defend it.
Her tweet?
Ven
I blame the parents. That’s what happens when you name your child Kandiss.
Ven: “What kind of person pushes a weather conspiracy theory while some families mourn the loss of loved ones”
Hypocrites.
What kind of person thinks they can make a hypocrite feel guilty, and that fantasy serves a purpose?
bsf: “the Republican party behind him. ”
The republicans are behind who they think can win.
Worth watching again.
https://youtu.be/KaOC9danxNo
Shellbellsays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 8:12 pm
“If we were going to attack it would have been years ago over the monopolisation of the Test cricket team by NSW anyway.”
Is Graham Yallop the last Victorian to captain the Australian test team? Maybe another revolution may yield a fill in opportunity.
===============================================================
Only because Warne couldn’t keep his mobile phone in his pants pocket.
Ven: “What kind of person pushes a weather conspiracy theory while some families mourn the loss of loved ones”
===================================================
The same ilk who told the parents of Sandy Hook School that the shooting death of their children were fake. Many of the parents not only lost a child but got death threats from MAGA nutters claiming that it was a hoax.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Hook_Elementary_School_shooting_conspiracy_theories
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
Ye gods it’s a Victorian state #Newspoll!
ALP 35 L-NP 35 Grn 12 other 18
2PP ALP leads 53-47
Netsats Allan -31 (30-61)
Battin +5 (40-35)
Better Premier Battin leads 41-36
Very unusual combination
Note, there are two polls, a Redbridge in the Herald Sun, and a Newspoll in The Asutralian. I can’t see the full figures of the Redbridge.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-voters-deeply-unhappy-with-jacinta-allan-as-labor-clings-to-lead/news-story/ce029a5783cb5be601f8393e91969759
Kevin Bonham on twitter…
“Ye gods it’s a Victorian state #Newspoll!
ALP 35 L-NP 35 Grn 12 other 18
2PP ALP leads 53-47
Netsats Allan -31 (30-61)
Battin +5 (40-35)
Better Premier Battin leads 41-36
Very unusual combination”
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/labor-on-track-to-win-historic-fourth-election-in-victoria-coalition-support-falls-to-low-point/news-story/84aa44a2d3ff9eb4f43bc7176ba4ba35
Labor on track to win historic fourth election in Victoria, Coalition support falls to low point
The Coalition’s support has plummeted as a new poll suggests the Allan government will comfortably win next year’s election, delivering Labor a fourth successive term.
Shannon Deery
July 6, 2025 – 8:45PM
Support for the State Coalition is plummeting with a new poll showing just 38 per cent of Victorians back the party – five points less than when Brad Battin took over as leader in December.
Thank Hh and Leroy. The HUN & Oz must hate reporting that their political wing are losers.
Replying to @kevinbonham And also Redbridge Vic (state)
ALP 33 L-NP 38 Grn 14 others 15
2PP ALP leads 51.5-48.5
Allan govt has right focus/priorities net -28
Battin + L-NP have done enough, deserve to win net -19
“Support for the State Coalition is plummeting with a new poll showing just 38 per cent of Victorians back the party – five points less than when Brad Battin took over as leader in December.”
Is it their religious nuttery or their love of internal litigation that is putting people off the Victorian Libel Party?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgk-lA12FBk
I think these numbers are a sign that the Deeming-Pesutto wars aren’t being quite as helpful as the Credlin wing of the Victorian Liberal party is hoping they would be.
People haven’t even got to know Battin yet and the metro tunnel hasn’t even opened yet.
The Libs may see the first as an opportunity (I see it as the opposite) and the latter is unequivocally going to boost Labor.
The preferred Premier number is more a “we don’t like what we’ve seen of Allan” than anything, 95% of Victorians couldn’t pick Battin out of a line up yet (although I’d say at least half also couldn’t pick Allan out of a lineup yet).
Amusing how Murdoch/Sky whine about the election results and then say the LNP should be MORE like Dutton was.
“People haven’t even got to know Battin yet and the metro tunnel hasn’t even opened yet.”
The plan is to have 12 Victorian Jury members get to know him per court case.
“Victorian Opposition Leader Brad Battin has been served with legal papers by lawyers prosecuting a case against the party’s $1.55m loan to John Pesutto.
It makes Mr Battin the second consecutive leader of the Victorian Liberal Party dragged to court by a party member.”
https://www.facebook.com/FiberalPartyOfAustralia/posts/victorian-opposition-leader-brad-battin-has-been-served-with-legal-papers-by-law/753989763808652/
Though unfortunately these cases tend to be judge only verdicts. So I guess at least most of Victoria’s civil court judges will get to know him.
Entropysays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 9:27 pm
“Is it their religious nuttery or their love of internal litigation that is putting people off”
Could be wrong, but it’s probably federal spillover and the internal fighting.
And also likely the Trump effect.
Post up on the Victorian polls:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/07/06/victorian-polls-newspoll-and-redbridge-group/
William Bowesays:
Sunday, July 6, 2025 at 10:08 pm
“Post up on the Victorian polls:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/07/06/victorian-polls-newspoll-and-redbridge-group/”
Thanks.
From the SMH..
“While it’s not a new strategic doctrine, it is saying that there are times when Australia has to determine its own destiny,” Curran said.
“After the best part of two decades, in which the culture of the alliance has been awash in the sentimental claptrap of ‘100 years of mateship’, it’s not necessarily a bad thing for the loose cannons in the Trump administration – who are perhaps getting used to allies capitulating – to hear an Australian PM saying that, from time to time, Australia needs to express itself differently.”
Australia US alliance as useful AUKUS.. huge bonus for Australia we get to save huge amounts of money.