Mid-week miscellany: federal poll drought edition (open thread)

Some observations on when regular federal polling might be expected to resume, and the Tasmanian state election that could potentially give us something to chew on in the meantime.

The potential for a Liberal legal challenge to the result in Bradfield remains the only complication to a resolution of the federal election, with a 40-day period for the lodgement of such a challenge to commence when the Australian Electoral Commission returns the writs, which it must do by July 9. The impasse also stands in the way of a final resolution of the national two-party preferred result, with the AEC relating it is loath to disturb the ballot papers as required to complete its Labor-versus-Liberal count for the seat. The current progress result recorded for the seat on the AEC site is stuck at an early stage accounts for only about 10% of the total, and is evidently dominated by strong areas for the Liberals. With full results available for all other seats, the final result looks likely to land at 55.2-44.8 to Labor.

We remain in something of a limbo on the federal polling front. Roy Morgan had the first voting intention poll of the term last week, but has apparently not resumed its normal weekly schedule. Peter Lewis of Essential Research says his agency’s normally fortnightly poll is “on a post-election sabbatical/hiatus for a few months”. Experience suggests Newspoll in The Australian may be another month away, and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers perhaps another month more.

Never fear though, for a snap Tasmanian election may shortly be upon us, just 14 months after an election at which the Liberals held on to power with the support of a now alienated cross-bench. The state’s Governor currently considering Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s request for a dissolution following last week’s parliamentary no confidence motion. I’ll have a post up on that when the situation becomes clearer, and if an election indeed ensues, will put together a guide for it as fast as humanly possible and set to work on live results. Local hero Kevin Bonham relates that the window for such an election is in the four weeks between July 19 and August 9.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,596 thoughts on “Mid-week miscellany: federal poll drought edition (open thread)”

Comments Page 29 of 32
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  2. May 14, 2025 11:54 AM EST – FAA Orders Boeing 787 Inspections to Fix Water Leak Issues

    https://www.airwaysmag.com/new-post/faa-boeing-787-inspections-water-leak-issues

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has adopted AD 2025‑09‑12, effective June 18, 2025, mandating inspections and on‑condition sealant repairs on select Boeing 787‑8, ‑9, and ‑10 series airplanes.

    This action was prompted by reports of potable‑water‑system leaks—stemming from improperly installed waterline couplings—that allowed water to seep into electronics equipment (EE) bays, risking electrical shorts and potential loss of critical flight systems.

    https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/666472-plane-crash-near-ahmedabad.html#post11902678 – from a highly experienced and respected member of that forum who is not prone to clickbait speculation:

    Water ingress into the E/E bay is a serious issue. The B744 had this issue in the past causing serious problems, one of which was fortunate to not lead to a loss of the aircraft, on a B744F. The B744 pax aircraft had a number of water problems related to the toilets and the galley. The forward galley on the B742/3s had many issues.

    Any large aircraft going through maintenance is interesting to observe the extent of corrosion that occurs near toilets and galleys, and from water lines.

    The B777 was not immune to this either. The potable water tank failing caused one of our aircraft to have 6.5 tons of ice accumulating in the underfloor area of the aft cargo hold, which we detected on a preflight walk around as a series of water streams from the drain holes in one area of the aircraft. This was an interesting item for CG, a note on weight, but only affected the electrical services related to the aft cargo systems.

    Water accumulations on the B744 came to light at rotate, and took out a lot of electrical services.

    My suspicion is some cause such as this will come to light shortly.

  3. Re the costs of specialists generally. Yes it’s a major problem and illustrates the point I’ve been making on here for some time that the obsession with achieving GP bulk-billing for the relatively well-off among the ALP, the media and, to some extent the Coalition is major red herring.

    The people in our society who are truly paying too much for medicine and/or struggling to access services are not generally healthy working people but the chronically ill.

  4. Omar Comin’: I’m always inclined to pay more attention to the discussion on pprune.org than to talking heads like Captain Steeeeeeeeve.

  5. Relax everyone:
    The Australian government is monitoring rising global oil prices – which threatens in increase the cost of petrol says Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles. US crude prices surged as much as 14 per cent on Friday, before settling near $US73 a barrel when markets closed. If sustained, the rise in oil prices this month so far threatens to drive up Australian fuel prices at the pump by 12¢ a litre, say AMP economists. “We have seen and over the course of the last few days the global oil price go up. It’s the inevitable consequence of any conflict,” Marles told ABC News Breakfast. “So we are very much monitoring that closely to see what the ultimate impact is here in Australia, but that’s going to be a function of how long this continues.”

  6. #weatheronPB
    The distant backdrop,
    cold, but blue as all get out,
    like an open door.

    But with up, not out,
    it draws me into itself,
    and in, to myself.

  8. Morning all. Thanks for the International roundup HH. Interesting times as Albo goes to the G7 this week. AUKUS and lots more are sure to be discussed.

    There will always be cardigan wearers like Greg Sheridan speaking in favour of AUKUS, plus a few Admirals whose pensions are at stake. Many of these are the same militarists who supported invading Iraq in Howard’s era.

    Most of the independent security analysts and much of Australia’s defense industry is now against AUKUS. The first group realises it is a waste of money. The second group realises it is killing the defense budget for work here.

    The Lowi Institute survey Sprocket quoted earlier is not the only one that shows most Australians don’t trust USA under Trump. This Pew centre survey of many countries gets similar results. Australia and Sweden are the two countries that have dropped most in support for USA under Trump. 77% distrust for Australians.
    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/06/11/confidence-in-trump/

    The Pew centre survey also shows support for Macron to act responsibly in world affairs (61%) is higher than for Albo (60%).

  9. Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk: For people having kittens about the rise in the oil price, please note that at US$73 a barrel this morning it is still 5% lower than in early 2025 and 10-15% lower than 2023.

  10. On oil prices, worth noting that at US $73/barrel oil is still a fair way short of its 2022 peak during the Ukraine war peak sanctions period. There is no excuse (yet) for petrol prices to reach previous highs.

    Also government should remind people that the new regs leading to cheaper EVs is operational from July 1. It looks a very good time to buy an EV!

  14. ”
    Steve777says:
    Sunday, June 15, 2025 at 10:57 pm
    Re Kirsdarke @10:37. ”A comment from the Lawyers, Guns and Money blog that I agree with…”

    The second Trump Administration is the very definition of “Kakistocracy” – rule by the worst. At least Trump 1.0 had some adults in the room at any given time. Most didn’t stick around for long. This time it’s all Yes Men, crackpots and imbeciles.
    ”

    Aren’t we(Australia) lucky that we woke up in time to defeat Trump mini-me in our country and elect a safe pair of hands.
    The fact is Albanese government 1.0 was competent, disciplined and decent was a reassuring balm to public that gave the biggest victory to ALP after WW2.
    ALP PV: 34.6%
    L-NP PV: 31.8%
    Rest: 33:6%

    2PP
    ALP: 55.3%
    So 20.7% of the rest preferences flowed to ALP.

  16. ‘The highly flawed submarine deal

    The Pentagon has placed US defence policy secretary Elbridge Colby in charge of the AUKUS review. Colby has become the chief US critic of the AUKUS deal over recent years. He told the Herald last August that as the US faces the prospect of war with China at any time, why would it give away “this crown jewel asset, when we most need it”. But he’s an “AUKUS agnostic”, “not an atheist”.

    Announced by former PM Scott Morrison in September 2021, the AUKUS deal involves this country acquiring its own SSN. According to the plan, the US is to commence selling Australia from three to five second-hand Virginia class submarines, commencing in 2032, while in the early 2040s Australia will commence building five UK-designed AUKUS SSN in South Australia.

    Colby could easily declare AUKUS unviable as in order for Australia to commence receiving Virginia boats early next decade, the US must first satisfy its own requirement of a fleet of 66 Virginia class SSN, and it currently needs 17 more. To make both US domestic and Australian needs the US must be building 2.3 SSN a year, however it’s only producing 1.3 annually and it hasn’t budgeted for anymore.

    The US legislation relating to AUKUS allows the US president to refuse handing over a Virginia SSN slated for sale to Australia. A new agreement established last August permits any party to pull out of the AUKUS deal, which lasts until 31 December 2075, by giving a year’s notice that it is doing so.

    The Australian SSN would give this country the potential to attack China, which is the point. However, last August, the US Congressional Research Service pointed out that the AUKUS agreement already involves the establishment of Submarine Rotational Force – West in WA, which will see US and UK SSN rotating through a base at HMAS Stirling. So, there is really no need for Australian-owned subs.

    Due to all these holes in the plan, the AUKUS deal has always had strong critics at home, however the Albanese government has embraced the deal with glee.

    And with yesterday’s announcement, key AUKUS critic former Australian PM Paul Keating has suggested the US review “might very well be the moment Washington saves Australia from itself”.

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/as-an-authoritarian-trump-threatens-aukus-australia-should-rethink-its-us-alliance/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-25

    I hope Colby gets his way.

  17. ”
    Macca RBsays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 5:33 am
    Trump and his cronies need to visit New Delhi on January 26th, next year.
    Then they can see and discover what a real Republic Day parade is like.
    Don’t invite any Pakistani friends.
    They will be aghast when hearing the praises of the frontier troops and the anti Pakistan rhetoric.
    And they manage to train 100s of the camels from the desert legions to march in perfect step.
    ”

    Thumbs up emoji Macca RB.

    But, but, but ….. “Trump has front lobe dementia”

  18. ”
    meher babasays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 6:07 am
    Dio and TK last night.

    FWIW my cardiologist is wonderful: best doctor I have ever consulted. He saved my life in 2021 and has provided wonderful service ever since.

    I thought I’d mention this on behalf of cardios in general.
    ”

    My cardiologists were wonderful too.

  19. “Confessionssays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 6:35 am
    The president was supposedly inspired to demand a military parade, an exceptionally rare event in recent U.S. history, after seeing a very different display on Bastille Day 2017, on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. Given Trump’s admiration for strongman leaders in Russia and China, there was worry that the Army parade might hew to the authoritarian geometry of military spectacles in totalitarian countries, especially the absurdist mix of camp and menace favored by the regime in North Korea.

    But the soldiers who paraded past the presidential reviewing stand on Constitution Avenue walked with a loose-limbed gait, disciplined but not robotic, with individual soldiers integrated into the collective without losing their identity. Those riding by on tanks, trucks and other combat vehicles waved and smiled, engaging with an enthusiastic crowd. The announcer often sounded as if he were narrating a fashion show for machines rather than a military parade. The Bradley Fighting Vehicle: “It is fast, it is tough, and it is lethal.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/2025/06/15/trump-army-parade-washington/

    Some of the narration I heard was verging on absurd. But it’s good the parade was nothing like what Trump wanted.
    ”

    WaPo cannot help themselves at praising rank amateur parade. The description of parade by WAPO is pathetic to put it mildly.
    As Macca RB posted, watch the Indian Republic Day parade. All professionalism in full display.
    A country’s military is supposed to be most disciplined and competent outfit in the country and they should showcase that.
    How long are you going to defend the WaPos, NYT, BBC of this world?

  20. Trump job approval:
    Approve 45.3%
    Disapprove 50.8%
    Don’t know 3.9%

    Trump net approval on the issues:
    Immigration -1.9
    Economy -13.1
    Trade -15.4
    Inflation -20.1

    (source: Silver Bulletin)

  21. Nobody’s heart was truly in the parade. The organisation was weak, the display was meh and the troops looked like they would have loved to be elsewhere. The sponsorship by Coinbase and UFC was tacky. And the classic rock soundtrack was out of place. For a land of marching bands, they were clearly missing.
    Because it was designed to be political with a fairly weak mask of the army’s 250th, it was hard for non-partisans to be involved.

  22. The military parade was a complete and utter flop.

    Even newsmax, which is more right wing than Fox News, stated there were 10,000 people in attendance.

    This compared to millions who protested around the country.

    Where did MAGA go?

  23. Something doesn’t gel with the MAGA cult.

    The parade which was once in a lifetime opportunity for the supporters of the orange menace to come out in droves.

    The fact that this did not happen, is extremely consequential

  24. In fact, the protestors were the ones that should have held back due to the threats made by Trump.

    It didn’t stop the millions to come out.

    Yet the MAGA crowd who have Trump’s back (he pardoned all the Jan 6 ferals), didn’t bother showing up.

  25. Mavis

    “ I hope Colby gets his way.”

    So do I. But why do we need to hope the Americans will fix one of our mistakes?
    Albo and Marles should never have agreed to AUKUS.

    Marles should also have removed the defense apparatchiks still running around justifying this stuff. They only help themselves.

  26. Victoriasays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 9:28 am
    Albo has landed in Canada for the G7
    _____________________
    That’s nice to know.
    Please let us know when he has something to eat.

  28. As seen in Ukraine Russia Conflict, drones are now the way to go.

    Expensive tanks are easily destroyed by cheap drones.

    Kinda makes the military parade even more superfluous

  29. Bonza

    No doubt being amplified online and by the right wing echo system.

    Which is why I didn’t think he was gonna win last November.

    Hardly anyone showed up to his rallies, and those that did, left early.

    Something stinks

  30. There certainly is a group think which has developed here over AUKUS. I guess I have to post Professor John Blaxland’s opinion piece from The Conversation again to provide a view contrary to this group think. Also to explicate Elbridge Colby’s actual point of view unfiltered by any 3rd party website:

    The Pentagon has announced it will review the massive AUKUS agreement between the United States, United Kingdom and Australia to ensure it’s aligned with US President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda.

    The US undersecretary of defence for policy, Elbridge Colby, is reportedly going to oversee the review.

    The announcement has raised concern in Australia, but every government is entitled to review policies that their predecessors have made to consider whether or not there’s a particular purpose.

    The UK has launched a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS too, so it’s not actually unreasonable for the US to do the same.

    There’s a degree of nervousness in Australia as to what the implications are because Australia understandably has the biggest stake in this.

    But we need to consider what Colby has articulated in the past. In his book, The Strategy of Denial: American Defence in the Nature of Great Power Conflict, he made the case the US could “prepare to win a war with China it cannot afford to lose – in order to deter it from happening”.

    So, with a deterrent mindset, he sees the need for the US to muscle up militarily.

    He’s spoken about the alliance with Australia in very positive terms on a couple of occasions. And he has called himself an “AUKUS agnostic”, though he has expressed deep concern about the ability of the submarine industrial base in the US to manufacture the ships quickly enough.

    And that leads to the fear the US Navy would not have enough submarines for itself if Washington is also sending them to Australia.

    As part of the deal, Australia would eventually be able to contribute to accelerating the production line. That involves Australian companies contributing to the manufacture of certain widgets and components that are needed to build the subs.

    Australia has already made a nearly A$800 million (US$500 million) down payment on expanding the US industrial capacity as part of the deal to ensure we get some subs in a reasonable time frame.

    There’s also been significant legislative and industrial reforms in the US, Australia and UK to help facilitate Australian defence-related industries unplug the bottleneck of submarine production.

    There’s no question there’s a need to speed up production. But we are already seeing significant signs of an uptick in the production rate, thanks in part to the Australian down payment. And it’s anticipated the rate will significantly increase in the next 12–18 months.

    Why the US won’t spike the deal

    I’m reasonably optimistic that, on balance, the Trump administration will come down on the side of proceeding with the deal.

    There are a few key reasons for this:

    1) We’re several years down the track already.

    2) We have more than 100 Australian sailors already operating in the US system.

    3) Industrially, we’re on the cusp of making a significant additional contribution to the US submarine production line.

    And finally, most people don’t fully appreciate that the submarine base just outside Perth is an incredibly consequential piece of real estate for US security calculations.

    Colby has made very clear the US needs to muscle up to push back and deter China’s potential aggression in the region. In that equation, submarines are crucial, as is a substantial submarine base in the Indian Ocean.

    China is acutely mindful of what we call the “Malacca dilemma”. Overwhelmingly, China’s trade of goods and fossil fuels comes through the Malacca Strait between Malaysia and Indonesia’s island of Sumatra. The Chinese know this supply line could be disrupted in a war. And the submarines operating out of Perth contribute to this fear.

    https://theconversation.com/trump-may-try-to-strike-a-deal-with-aukus-review-but-heres-why-he-wont-sink-it-258798

  32. The most embarrassing thing was the poor soldiers holding up drones. I am almost certain the plan had been for them to be flying above the troops as they marched but this got scuttled as a safety issue by the secret service. So instead it looked like a kid playing with his toy plane.

  33. Adelaide’s biggest company, oil & gas giant Santos, has agreed to a $30bn takeover by a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company.
    In an announcement to the market on Monday, Santos confirmed the consortium led by XRG P.J.S.C – a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company – and including the Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company sovereign wealth fund and US private equity firm Carlyle made its bid on Friday.
    A cash offer price of $US5.76 ($8.89) – a 28 per cent premium to the company’s last closing price – has been endorsed by the Santos board, which has agreed to give the XRG consortium a period of exclusive due diligence to firm up its offer.

  34. The ICE raids are satisfying to the MAGA crowd and perhaps have lulled them into a sense that everything is working out for them. ‘Illegals’ are being targeted and their online feeds are telling them a story that seems to target their inate hatred leaving them satisfied that the swamp is being drained and they can relax the outrage that has been so much a part of their lives these last 4 years.
    Their information networks are not tuned to the No Kings movement and Trump is still framing any protest in ways that give them a sense that it’s being taken care of.
    It has been pointed out via posts and links here that Americans are lazy, they’ve ’had it good’ in a global comparison and fed on their own bullshit for so long now, have failed to turn up and vote in droves, assumed that they were too big to fail and that they were ‘free’.
    Trump is not surrounded by smart people, they’ve fled and I suppose the ‘big beautiful parade’ is a metaphor for the ability of those around him to actually do anything.
    I’d say he’s fuming now and scared. But the country needs to get up off their fat bums and push their cause…not something they’re used to.

  36. Holdenhillbilly @ #1433 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 10:01 am

    Adelaide’s biggest company, oil & gas giant Santos, has agreed to a $30bn takeover by a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company.
    In an announcement to the market on Monday, Santos confirmed the consortium led by XRG P.J.S.C – a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company – and including the Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company sovereign wealth fund and US private equity firm Carlyle made its bid on Friday.
    A cash offer price of $US5.76 ($8.89) – a 28 per cent premium to the company’s last closing price – has been endorsed by the Santos board, which has agreed to give the XRG consortium a period of exclusive due diligence to firm up its offer.

    Shareholders will say yes to the money. Would it still need govt approval? Selling that much of our onshore gas fields to overseas ownership?

  37. Team Katich – I think it needs SA government approval as well as a federal government tick. Something to do with the SA law founding it.

  38. Iran’s leadership begins talks on possible evacuation.

    This could get very bad before it gets, maybe, good.
    Evacuation before excavation I suppose. But I find the story hard to believe. Any serious outlets running it? Power is hard to relinquish and even power, under fire and over rubble is still power. Surely they would only flee if there was a serious and imminent internal threat.

  39. Israeli official says indications are the underground part of Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility may have imploded, according to Wall Street Journal report.

  41. Cartoons North America
    John Buss

    Goris

    Alcaraz

    Clay Jones

    Clay Bennett

    Kamensky

    Peter Kuper

    Ramirez

    3q

    Paul North

  42. ”
    Victoriasays:
    Monday, June 16, 2025 at 10:11 am
    As seen in Ukraine Russia Conflict, drones are now the way to go.

    Expensive tanks are easily destroyed by cheap drones.

    Kinda makes the military parade even more superfluous
    ”

    Why does America need Tanks to defend itself? It needs Tanks only to defend itself from Canada and Mexico.
    Most of the parade involved people walking normally or rolling Tanks, which will be used much less in modern warfare than earlier.
    As C@tmomma pointed out only one man was shown walking holding a drone.

  43. A step closer to getting our house batteries installed. Getting 15kw battery storage to be added to our 6kw roof top.

    Interesting little note added to the Tas Networks approval. I’m assuming that is per day and they are starting to get in front of the issue where they stop making money. I noted the other day the cost of electricity went negative.

    The PV and Battery energy export into the grid must be limited to 4.6k.W.
    It has been determined that the system could cause non-compliant voltage at this installation
    and/or others. This is due to excessive PV energy penetration on TasNetworks’ transformer
    and/or low voltage circuit.

  44. UK and EU Cartoons
    Dave Brown

    Mike Seddon

    Nick Newman

    Guy Venables

    Patrick Blower

    Ella Baron

    Chappatte

    Tom Gauld

    Mac #DavidBeckham

    Chris Riddell

    Morten Morland

    Jonsey

    Private Eye

  45. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/14/politics/gallery/trump-parade-military-photos

    I’m going to say say some very unkind things, so warning ahead…

    But…

    I don’t think the US military personnel at focus demonstrated the “vigor” one would expect in some show of national strength.

    Of I’ll be frank, the soldiers there where fat and slovenly dressed. A complete embarrassment for US “strength”. If they were to have done it properly, it should have been more a fun celebratory “pride” parade.

  47. It wasn’t just that the Trump Military parade was a completely lame event. It was a completely lame event that cost $45 million of taxpayers money. This event should of been first on any DOGE cut list.

  49. World Test Championship final: South Africa beats Australia by five wickets on day four at Lord’s

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-14/world-test-championship-live-blog-south-africa-australia/105417516

    “”That one stings,” off-spinner Nathan Lyon told BBC Test Match Special.

    “We’ve been very good for the last two years but we were outplayed in this game. You play to win trophies. We had that opportunity this week and we got outplayed.

    “It’s gonna hurt for a while.”

  50. Team Katich @ #1436 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 10:49 am

    Holdenhillbilly @ #1433 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 10:01 am

    Adelaide’s biggest company, oil & gas giant Santos, has agreed to a $30bn takeover by a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company.
    In an announcement to the market on Monday, Santos confirmed the consortium led by XRG P.J.S.C – a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company – and including the Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company sovereign wealth fund and US private equity firm Carlyle made its bid on Friday.
    A cash offer price of $US5.76 ($8.89) – a 28 per cent premium to the company’s last closing price – has been endorsed by the Santos board, which has agreed to give the XRG consortium a period of exclusive due diligence to firm up its offer.

    Shareholders will say yes to the money. Would it still need govt approval? Selling that much of our onshore gas fields to overseas ownership?

    FIRB approval would be required I believe.

    Anyone know who’s on the FIRB these days?

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