Tasmania faces its second state election in 15 months after Governor Barbara Baker today granted the dissolution and July 19 election requested by Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff after his defeat last week in a parliamentary no-confidence motion. Rockliff made his request yesterday, but was told by Baker she would spend the next few days considering all options. However, it appears she heard enough when Labor leader Dean Winter ruled out trying to form a new government, the announcement of the fresh election being made late this afternoon. I will now set to work on getting a guide to the election place as quick as humanly possible, and will as usual be publishing live results and projections on election night and beyond.
The election held in March last year, which was likewise held early in a vain bid by Rockliff to strengthen his position in parliament, returned 14 Liberal, ten Labor, five Greens, three Jacqui Lambie Network and three independent members, with the Liberals forming a minority government after obtaining guarantees from the JLN members (two of whom quit the party in very short order) and more qualified support from two of the independents. The most contentious issue in Tasmanian politics of recent times has been a plan to contribute $615 million to construction of a stadium presently budgeted at $945 million that will house a new AFL team to enter the competition in 2028. As dearly as Tasmanians would love their own team in the competition, there is a distinctive sense that the state is being fleeced by a rapacious AFL and that the imposition is more than the state can afford. However, the plan has the support of both major parties, prompting a sense within Labor that cross-benchers were stealing their thunder in leading the charge against the government on the issue.
When Treasurer Guy Barnett foreshadowed privatisations in bringing down a budget last week that forecast deficit and debt blowouts, Labor leader Dean Winter saw an opportunity to deal the party back in the game by moving a no confidence motion against Rockliff and challenging the cross-benchers to support it. As well as the state of the budget, Labor was also able to invoke the government’s disastrous failure to provide adequate berthing facilities for new Bass Strait ferries operating out of Devonport, prompting the resignation of Treasurer Michael Ferguson last October. Ignoring Rockliff’s threats of a fresh election, the Greens and two independents lent the motion their support, and it duly carried by a single vote last Thursday.
There were suggestions that Winter aimed to do no more than claim the scalp of Rockliff as Premier, but the Liberals have been resolute in their determination to maintain him as leader, in the teeth of criticism from the business community and conservative Liberal Senator Jonathan Duniam. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a view that the party would do better at a prompt election with Rockliff than by “waiting for the next crisis and facing voters with a less popular alternative, such as Michael Ferguson”. For his part, Winter has rejected the notion of Labor taking over without an election in a government that would rely on the support of the Greens.
Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system involves five electoral divisions (the same ones that apply at federal level) electing seven members each (increased from five at the 2024 election), making it difficult for either major party to score a majority. The Greens won five seats last year, balancing a failure in the Braddon division by winning two seats in Clark. Jacqui Lambie says her party will not contest the election, and unless the members have done a better job ingratiating themselves locally than I am crediting them with, their seats in Bass, Braddon and Lyons (the latter being the only one remaining with the party) presumably represent low-hanging fruit for other parties. Presumably better placed are Kristie Johnston (Clark), David O’Byrne (Franklin) and Craig Garland (Braddon), who were elected as independents in 2024.
The most recent poll from the state, conducted by EMRS from May 13 to 17, had Labor in its strongest position since it last held office in 2010, albeit that this amounted to only 31% of the vote, compared with 29.0% last March. The Liberals were down from 36.7% to 29%, with the Greens holding steady on 14% compared with 13.9%. The poll continued to gauge support for the Jacqui Lambie Network, who were on 6%. Labor presumably has high hopes of improving off its low base of two seats in each of the five divisions, particularly after its 9.0% swing in the state at the federal election. However, it faces a major challenge in winning enough seats to meet its own pre-condition of governing without the support of the Greens, and with the Liberals also on the downswing after 11 years in government, there is a strong possibility that the election will fail in its presumed goal of breaking the parliamentary deadlock.
Voting informal is a copout. You need to vote for the least worst option if that is how you see it.
Boerwar at 9.41 pm and Steve777 at 10.25 pm
Correct Steve, deliberate informal voting is a copout (especially when one of the options, Abbott, was so unappealing that in 2013 the only polling booth corflutes that featured him were the Labor ones).
But deliberate informal voting is probably much smaller than regular default informal voting, caused by illiteracy or ignorance.
Re Boerwar’s third claim about the uneducated Taswegians, it does not fit with an informal vote of 4.25% at the federal election, level with VIC and only a bit over half that in NSW.
The education level in Tasmania relative to the mainland has probably not changed much in the past two generations. If poor governments have become more common there, other causes need to be ascertained.
One of the best books on Tasmanian politics, economics and society is by Quentin Beresford, The Rise and Fall of Gunns Ltd (2015), showing the insidious influence of corporate power.
There is quite a background to big bureaucratic or corporate influence in Tassie politics, from the HEC to the forest slayers and the pokie pushers.
It would seem that Dean Winter is about to acknowledge that Labor is going into the new election with the intention of performing a triple back somersault with twist.
It may end spectacularly, either as a belly flop or a wonderfully executed exhibition of political acrobatic agility.
The unaffordable, badly located stadium, linked to the establishment of a Tasmanian based AFL team, to be known as “the tigers” is a fuse looking for ignition at an election.
For Labor to gain something resembling a majority under the HC system in Tasmania, Labor has to profess to support the establishment of a Tigers AFL team, profess to accept the planned location of the stadium, profess to repair the fiscal calamity that is the state of the Tasmanian budget,profess to not widen the North/South divide, sufficiently oppose the Greens influence while maintaining some environmental tendencies and outline a plan to ignite a state economy with little to work with.
The poker machine issue is an indicative telltale of the pitfalls of divisions in a small pool and harsh judges.
I’ve no idea as to the outcome of the upcoming election.
At least Labor has a plan of sorts.
The Liberals are offering nothing new and are asking for support from voters they have previously alienated.
The Greens will maintain their current status.
Jackie is withdrawing to concentrate on a Federal Jackie.
The independents are numerous and localised.
Tasmania is a much loved and idolised island, a mosaic of significant parts, the home to incredible diversity, beauty and history.
Labor will this week attempt to say the stadium is not possible as the upper house will oppose the stadium regardless.
The back somersault will need to be epic.
Good luck Tasmania.
goll. Minor correction. The footy team will be called the Devils. I don’t think Richmond would be overly pleased if they tried to call themselves the Tigers.
“the devil is in the detail”
Thank you Meher Baba.
Dr D
The Tasmanian year 12 completion rate is massively lower than the Australian completion rate.
The reason I was referring to low education rates was not a matter of managing to vote successfully by filling in a ballot paper (other the sometimes shoddy choices made while filling in the ballot paper). It was because low education rates and an ageing population make government decision-making about economic development more difficult. Modern economies require well-educated populations.
Apart from tourism and aquaculture (one damaged by government incompetence by way of a lack of wharfing for a ferry that is sitting idle in Scotland and the other threatened by a mix of Tasmanian NIMBY and environmental values and by climate change – see Pacific Oysters/Oestreid Herpes Virus) disbursing the federal loot from horizontal fiscal equalization seems to be only industry in Tasmania that is growing.
I take your point about the very dead hand of the corporates in Tasmania. I would add the dead hand of the ultra conservative squattocratic descendents.
One ray of hope is the return of the natives as well-educated Tasmanians return to Tasmania with business skills and with ambitions. This has in particular been a useful driver of innovation in tourism.
https://newpolitics.com.au/2025/06/14/the-ghost-of-morrison-fascism-usa-and-political-football-in-tasmania/ …
https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/tasmanian-labor-promises-fresh-start-after-11-years-of-liberal-rule/
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/06/10/anthony-albanese-national-press-club-jeremy-rockliff-tasmania/
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/06/tasmania-in-the-news-for-all-the-wrong-reasons/
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/saul-eslake_there-is-a-way-out-of-tasmanias-budget-activity-7338068276045934593-A01q
@goll – Tasmanian Labor has a plan of sorts? Could you be so kind as to share it with the voters before mid-July?
Dean Winter is the personification of a man without a plan…topple the Premier but not willing to even talk to any of the cross benchers to take on the job himself.
The dog caught the car, and the voters are about to be run over…again.
TropicalWonderland, Tasmanian Rivera? That might be an example of hyper local naming, Tamar River?
Dr Doolittle I owe you a response, my earlier one didnt make it up.
Of the three independents, they all have 2 issues, fund raising and ground game. Johnson has this covered due to her longevity. Garland voted on principle but there’s a good chance he’ll get back in based on performance. Jenner lost his party, skipped to the Nats, has no ground game and is most likely to lose his seat. It is Jenner I was surprised supported the MoNC as he is a tory and has self interest to stay the full 4 years.
The ground has shifted in Clark with a high profile Labor candidate coming in. The 7th seat is now likely to go Labor so someone is missing out, that could be Johnson and she probably didnt game that one but also probably voted on principle like Garland.
Mostly Interested at 10.56 am
Thanks for your response. Is Wilkie supporting Johnston? She needs to beat either the second Green or the third Labor candidate to win, unless the Liberal vote collapses very badly.
Dr Bonham suggests it is possible that Johnston could retain her seat, while David O’Byrne might be at risk in Franklin, because of Peter George standing and an increase in the Labor vote with Jessica Munday standing.
Before fresh polling Dr Bonham says the most likely Liberal loss is in Franklin, followed possibly by Lyons.
Dr Doolittle, I think we’re all in limbo until new polling comes out. I was going to make my seat prediction but I’ll wait until the new one is released.
A new stadium built for the benefit of a corporate AFL, in the wrong place, dividing a state, at a time when the current Liberal government has created a financial dilemma and the need to appoint an an administrator suggests that any change of the political balance in Tasmania at an election is a positive.
The Liberals have stuffed up and Winter on behalf of Labor has just started the obvious.
The voters will in all likelihood instigate a different result and some competence to allow the fiscal burden to be eased.
Perhaps it’s time for the Liberals to admit their part in the dilemma and allow restoration to occur.
The Tasmanian voters hold the power to amend the current Liberal travesty.
Taken from Kevin Bonham’s site, by KB’s count (with his caveats below): 13 Lib, 14 Lab, 4 Green, 3 Indi, 1 too close to call. I’ll wish cast that to Lab. A pathway to government for Labor with the correct mix of Indis (primarily keep in O’Byrne and keep out George). Otherwise a Green agreement is in our near future. I dont disagree with any of KB’s suggestions, I’m just a little more bullish on the 3rd Labor seat in Braddon.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/
Outlook for Lyons: If things aren’t too bad for the government then possibly they can still manage 3-3-1-0 (Liberal-Labor-Greens-other) but we will see.
Outlook for Franklin: As a first attempt prior to any polling, 2-3-1-1 (Liberal-Labor-Green-IND) with George replacing O’Byrne may be the favourite. Many other things are possible.
Outlook for Clark: as a first offer prior to polling and seeing the full field, 2-3-1-1 (Liberal-ALP-Grn-IND), 2-2-2-1 and 2-3-2-0 seem to be the lead contenders
Outlook for Braddon: An initial offer prior to polling, probably 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, Garland and the last seat depends on how the election is going overall.
Outlook for Bass: Will be refined in light of polling, but 3-3-1-0 (Liberal-Labor-Green-others), 3-2-1-1 and less likely 2-3-1-1 seem plausible in early running.
@MostlyInterested – Tasmanian Riviera is what the locals here call the East Coast – warmer and drier than the rest of Tassie – as well as more pretentious!!
@Goll – but Winter and Labor support “a new stadium built for the benefit of a corporate AFL, in the wrong place, dividing a state”. And no sign of any policies that might have a serious impact on the financial state of Tasmania. What’s the reason(s) that voters who went Liberal last time would change the vote? Peter Dutton is gone, and Rockliff has a fairly high satisfaction rating.
goll at 12.32pm: It does seem to be the case that part of Labor’s pitch for the election is going to be that the stadium process is an expensive mess, and that Labor will find a way to fix that: if need be, building it somewhere else while somehow still guaranteeing that Tassie gets an AFL team.
I’m really not sure how this message is going to go down with the voters: it might help to sway those who have growing doubts about Rockliff and the Libs, but it also might be seen as a bit of a con job, given that Labor has yet to put forward any detailed and convincing proposals about how they could run the stadium project in a better way.
Thanks in part to Bec White running against pokies in an election and switching to being in favour of them in the next election, Labor has a bit of a reputation down here of being a bit inclined to tell the voters what it thinks they want to hear, rather than what it truly stands for.
“what’s the reasons”,
Rockliff had alienated far too many parts of the Tasmanian electorate.
The sports sector, seeing so much money centralised in a southern stadium, together with the notion that AFL is the only sporting code will in all likelihood alienate all the other codes.
The environmental sector will see a return of Rockliff and his stadium as a continuation of the anti environment/climate/renewables brigade.
Public servants will feel that their future and monetary rewards are at risk because of the years of Liberal budget ineptitude.
Health, Education and transport will feel their task of maintaining their share of limited financial allocations to be at risk.
The ferry fiasco will receive is deserved ignominy.
The north/south “chasm” will deepen.
The Liberal brand remains a negative.
The establishment of Tasmanian Nationals supports this notion.
Income inequality remains an entrenched notion, attributed to the Liberals.
Housing needs remain dire.
And of course the local issues and local political affiliations!
Mr Rockliff needs to maintain the existing Liberal representation !
As I stated previously, I have nothing definitive to add to my suggestion that Rockliff and the Liberals are unlikely to increase their representation and are very likely to have a decreased representation.
The Liberals will again be unable to gain majority support in the upper house.
Winter and Labor have done what oppositions do.
I have enjoyed Mr Bonhams commentary on political electoral matters.
Any polling between now and the election will be “illuminating” and a far better indication of the future of Rockliff and the Liberals than anything I mention.
I finding the upcoming Tasmanian election and its various components compelling “viewing” as the election date nears.
As I said before “good luck” to all involved.
As stated before have never voted Liberal in any election in my life.
I’m close to it this time, do not think Labor have read the room yep force an election very very early but do not take any responsibility for it.
Scout, Labor did not force an early election.
@mundo, I agree. Labor did not force the election, but given they could have formed government but chose not to, again, leaves them open to that attack, be it fair or not.
“but given they could have formed government”
Oh !
How’s that?
Given the very early election, some posters have suggested that the Tasmanian House of Assembly needs to shift to single member electorates to deliver more majority governments.
I would suggest that single member electorates may not necessarily deliver stable majority governments for the following reasons.
1. Labor and Liberals aversion to dealing or even tacitly relying on the Greens is the root cause of the instability which has led to a very early election. However, Single Member Electorates will still see Greens win seats in the HoA.
The Greens are the highest polling party in Hobart LGA and are evenly matched with Labor in the Kingsborough and Huon Valley LGA with both trailing the Liberals in the low 30’s.
This combined area would have 6-7 lower house seat under single member electorates. The Greens aren’t guaranteed to win all these seats but they are a threat to win multiple seats in this region and remain a sizable cross bench bloc. A Green bloc of 3-4 MPs, 10% of the Assembly, is very possible under SME.
2. The small enrolments of 35 single member lower house electorates (~ 12,000) and in many cases their small geographic sizes, lends itself to much easier propositions for independent candidates, especially those with high local government profiles, to run successful campaigns. Take for example the Mayor of Derwent Valley, Michelle Dracoulis who is running as an independent in Lyons. This would be a more formidable local focused candidacy in a much more tightly focused electorate centred on the Derwent Valley LGA.
3. The small enrolment and size of 35 SMEs would also lend itself to major party MPs viewing themselves as more able to defend their seats as independents if they wanted to bolt their party.
There are other issues to consider as to how Single Member Electorates would work such as;
– The role of preferences (compulsory, optional, use the LC 3 pref minimum or FPTP)
– Continuing use of Robson rotation vs allowing HTV cards.
However, I don’t think SME is a panacea for stable majority government. At the very least in other states with SME there have been periods of minority government and this occurs more often as the hitherto 2 party system fragments in Australia.
Mundosays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 9:48 pm
Scout, Labor did not force an early election.
_____________________
That’s not the way the rest of Australia sees it.
Always thought Caroline Wilson was a lefty, but she ripped into Winter last night on the Agenda Setters.
I’m just hoping that Labor here in Tasmania is more agressive in the campaign, their usual timid mice in the walls and making squeaking sounds won’t get them anywhere now.
Anne Twomey is getting great content out of Tasmania. This looks at the more than likely outcome of another hung parliament.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgfF4PlaQtw
Taylormade, Caroline Wilson that greatest of Australian political thinkers, who has a deep understanding of the issues facing the Tasmanian voting public, with absolutely no vested interest in AFL outcomes, that Caroline Wilson?
Caroline Wilson is hilarious – leaving aside her not being a political commentator, she doesn’t actually know anything much about AFL football either… I’m not sure how she’s kept her job. If they want a female commentator there are plenty who actually know stuff about the game and wouldn’t just perpetutate the token woman stereotype like she does.
New thread.