JWS Research has published a post-federal election survey report along the same lines of a similar effort after the 2022 election, conducted May 6 to 8 from a sample of 1000. Key findings:
• Labor did distinctly better among those who voted early (encompassing postal as well as pre-poll voters), with 42% of those aged 65 and over but only 20% of those aged 18 to 34 reporting having voted more than a week out from election day, with a respective 25% and 47% voting on election day itself.
• Labor did much better among late deciders: 26% of Coalition voters said they always voted that way with only 10% saying they decided on the day they voted, whereas the respective figures for Labor voters were 17% and 16%. Of those who decided in the final week of the campaign, 39% voted Labor and 23% Coalition, compared with 38% and 30% in 2022.
• Forty-three per cent reported being at least party guided by how-to-vote cards (47% of Labor voters, 50% of Coalition and 32% of Greens), down from 49% in 2022, with 56% saying they made up their own mind (52% Coalition, 49% Labor and 65% Greens), up from 49%.
• Forty-nine per cent of Labor voters identified a favourable view of the party as the main motivation for their choice, followed by 23% for the leader, 18% for policies or issues and 7% for the local candidate. Among Coalition voters, 56% named the party, 20% policies or issues, 13% the local candidate and only 9% the leader.
• Eighty-three per cent found it easy to fill the lower house ballot paper compared with 8% for difficult, while 61% rated Senate voting easy and 22% difficult.
• Sixty-three per cent reckoned the election campaign important, up from 56% in 2022, compared with 16% for not important, down from 15%.
• Labor’s campaign was rated more positively than the Coalition measure on 11 of 12 measures, the exception being “a source of false/misleading information”, for which both scored 30%. The two most emphatic results both related to Trumpet of Patriots, whose campaign was rated “annoying” by 57% and a source of false/misleading information by 40%.
The Lowy Institute has published the full report of its annual survey of attitudes to foreign policy, conducted from March 3 to 16 from a sample of 2117. A taster was provided early in the election campaign in the shape of a question on which leader would be more competent at handling foreign policy, on which Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton 41% to 29%.
The survey finds trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world at 36%, down 20 points on last year and by far the worst result going back to 2006 (the previous low being 51% in the last year if the first Trump presidency). Eighty per cent nonetheless continue to hold that the US alliance is important to Australia’s security, down three on last year; 57% say Australia should remain close to the US rather than distance itself, down seven, and 63% hold that the US would come to Australia’s aid if it were attacked. Support for the AUKUS nuclear submarines plan was effectively unchanged on last year, with 67% in favour and 32% opposed. While an even 49% supported and opposed Trump’s demands that US allies spend more on defence, opinion of seven other keynote Trump policies was negative, with mass deportations of undocumented immigrants at the low end (42% support, 56% oppose) and tariffs (18% support, 81% oppose) and pressuring Denmark over Greenland (10% support, 89% oppose) rating worst.
A regular question on whether China should be viewed more as an economic partner than a security threat produced a net positive result for the first time since 2020, with respective results of 50% and 47%. Nonetheless, 69% believed China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, down two from last year, 56% believed it would be the most powerful country in ten, compared with 27% holding out for the United States. An even 45% considered Trump and Xi Jinping the “more reliable partner for Australia”. Japan scored highest out of eight major countries as trusted to act responsibly in the world, at 90%, with China on 20% and Russia 11%. A “confidence in world leaders” question had the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and Ukraine rated positively by between 59% and 63%; Peter Dutton doing a good deal worse at 41% and 52%; and only Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un rating worse than Donald Trump.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2025/06/britain-wants-no-part-in-israels-war
The British aren’t too keen on getting involved in the Middle East.
Interesting the popularity of the Iraq War in the early days. I was too busy going to anti-war rallies to try and pull lefty chicks. Few fell for my Weapons of Mass Seduction.
If Trump thinks his bombing of Iran’s nuclear capacity will improve his polling numbers, it ain’t happening.
[‘President Donald Trump’s decision to launch airstrikes against Iran is broadly unpopular with Americans, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after the strikes.
Americans disapprove of the strikes, 56% to 44%, according to the survey, with strong disapproval outpacing the share who strongly approve. Most distrust Trump’s decision-making on the use of force in Iran, with about 6 in 10 worried that the strikes will increase the Iranian threat to the US.
Sharp partisan divides cut through nearly every question asked in the survey: Democrats are broadly opposed to the strikes as most Republicans support them, though younger GOP supporters and Republican-leaning independents are more skeptical than others in their party.
Majorities of independents (60%) and Democrats (88%) disapprove of the decision to take military action in Iran. Republicans largely approve (82%). But just 44% of Republicans strongly approve of the airstrikes, far smaller than the group of Democrats who strongly disapprove (60%), perhaps reflecting that some in Trump’s coalition are broadly distrustful of military action abroad.
A 58% majority overall say the strikes will make Iran more of a threat to the US, with just 27% believing it will lessen the threat and the rest expecting it to do neither. Even among those who support the strikes, just 55% expect them to lessen the threat level.’] – CNN
And as for Pakistan recommending Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, good luck with that.
[‘In the mid-2020s, approximately 400,000 Iranian-born people lived in the United States, with about 130,000 in Los Angeles.’]
I trust there are no sleeper cells in LA & elsewhere in the US. If there are, it’s Biden’s fault, according to Trump & his supporters.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2025/06/trump-maga-allies-clocked-for-targeting-biden.html
Marles just obliterated any credibility Labor had left tonight on 7.30 report.
oh get a grip
What a gab fest it has been in the mainstream media today: a bunch of uneducated click baiters trying to make sense of what’s going on between the Mad Mullahs, fake Christians, and professional Jewish victims, all of whom claim to have the God of Abraham on their side, to the exclusion of the other two parties, one of whom is Donald Trump, chronic liar, serial adulterer, thief, murderer, malignant narcissist and self-confessed rapist, another being Benjamin Netanyahu, perpetrator of genocide, relugious bigotry and financial fraud, and the third a bearded Muslim nutcase who thinks women are chattels and who routinely orders young men and women to sacrifice their lives in his name.
Put them all in a negotiating room and then drop a bunker buster on them.
Yes, I retracted my statement on Bradfield once I discovered it was only an estimate. I assume one day we will get an official figure. At which time we will know how well or not you did with your estimate.
There is a clip from Trump about to get on Marine One saying “Israel and Iran don’t know what the f**k they’re doing.” Not sure if it is real yet.
But his latest Truth Social post is “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”
B. S. Fairman @ #2400 Tuesday, June 24th, 2025 – 8:11 pm
If your chat up lines were as lame as that I’m not surprised. 😉
B. S. Fairman says:
” his latest Truth Social post is “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES””
——————————
Uh Huh. Israel had already brought its jets home. Now he can say “I told them to bring them home. And they did.”
Great fodder for his Nobel Prize.
C@t – What is worse is that was one of my better ones.
Bushfire Bill @ #2406 Tuesday, June 24th, 2025 – 9:15 pm
great summary
BB
Hear hear.
It would be ideal if Trump, Putin, Khomeini, and Netanyahu all dropped off the perch simultaneously and preferably today.
B. S. Fairman @ #2408 Tuesday, June 24th, 2025 – 9:18 pm
good lord what an asshat
Yep. agent Orange is delusional
———
That he thinks he can control another country’s military from his phone’s social media app is deranged.
Actually having seen the whole interaction now, Trump is clearly very pissed off at Israel at the moment. It seems as if he has had enough of Netanyahu’s manipulation for the moment.
He normally seems angry but more in an annoyed way than this time seemed like a rage.
Also, what a time to be alive: we don’t know if the video is real but the barely literate blob of computer text definitely checks out.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 9:33 pm
Actually having seen the whole interaction now, Trump is clearly very pissed off at Israel at the moment. It seems as if he has had enough of Netanyahu’s manipulation for the moment.
He normally seems angry but more in an annoyed way than this time seemed like a rage.
==============================================================
While I can’t stand Netanyahu, I’m not sure he’s at fault this time. It is possible Defence Minister Israel Katz has gone rogue and is making false statements to the media in order to derail the cease fire.
B.S. Fairman at 4.45 pm
Are you sure the Nobel Committee in 1973 cited the Vietnam war not the October 1973 Middle East war?
However, your point would still apply. Kissinger, who had written a book on nuclear weapons, misunderstood a key detail about US nuclear threat levels during that Middle East war.
Details are in R.N. Lebow and J.G. Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton 1994).
Dr Dolittle – No, It was for the Paris Peace Accord as they also awarded it to Lê Đức Thọ (who refused the award). It was announced on the 17th of October smack in the middle of the Yom Kippur War.
The Yom Kippur War is one of the most interesting conflicts. Although in the end Israel came out on top, it was at an unstainable cost. Hence lead to the Camp David Accord years later.
Also it was the last conflict in which a Western power was involved where they were not able to dominate in the air from the beginning. That is until the Ukraine conflict; all the NATO doctrine has been based around control of the air and that was one of issues with the NATO training missions.
That’s another toddler tyrant thing I notice that Trump does, throws in his middle name initial when he’s trying to stamp some extra authoritah on the crap he says.
He’s also throwing about the full wording of his title too, much like Daenerys “Stormborn” Targaryen, First of Her Name, Mother of Dragons, The Unburnt, Khaleesi of the Dothraki, Queen of Meereen, the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm.
As his brain melts further he’ll probably start adding more to his title until it becomes as long as that.
“Unthinkable that Russia should be able to outproduce us, Nato’s Rutte says”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/nato-donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy-middle-east-defence-spending-latest-live-news
We’ve been hearing this from Europe for the past three years. They needed to act decisively on this epiphany in 2022, not leave it this late. (And still grumble about it.)
“Russia attacks Dnipro, killing 7 and injuring 70 people, with the number growing”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/06/24/7518465/
When is Russia going to be stopped, and those criminals brought to justice for what they’re doing to CIVILIANS across Ukraine?
Given this whole affair and ceasfire is on the tenderest of tenderhooks and could fly appart while sleeping overnight, I’ll permit myself to take a stab at the mad 15D chess grand strategy winners and loosers:
*** Winners (in no particular order) ***
Donald Trump: Achieved what he set out to do (stop the war with no loss of US lives), and showing a more effective “both sides-ism” than most other world leaders. Note to the Europeans and Albo (and especially Marles) – even Trump thinks both sides suck.
Iran: Insitutionally survived 12 days going hot with Israel, and (so far) got the last slaps in before ceasfire. Will come away with some valuable leasons.
US neo-cons: firmly back in charge of the US government now.
Military industrial complex: Stealth planes must be so hot right now (and they love big bombs and they cannot lie)
*** Loosers ***
Israel: Set itself Mt Everest high goals and made it to merely Kosciusko levels, loosing hundereds of civilians in the process and prove they cannot protect their own people. Expect domestic recriminations to growth the longer the Ayatollah remains in charge.
Global mainstream right: reflexively pro-Israel and overshot, deeply embarrassing for anyone who went hard in suport without achieving the Iran overthrow fantasies.
Global left: Twisted itself in knots over “Iraq mk3/WW3/Forever war” narratives, ended up being more anti-israel than even Iran was willing to be, and will be left wondering how it was less effective at stopping the war than a sex predator man baby. Likely tens of thousands of man-hours on yet-to-be released opinion pieces and cartoons now wasted.
Global far right: No amount of anti-semetic meme’ery could stop the US getting invoved.
*** Neutral***
Russia: Shown a largely unreliable ally, but at least didn’t get dragged in.
China: Made no effective contribution whatsovever as a “superpower”, but got a free lesson in force projection politics (that there is a middle ground between “harsh words” and “D-Day but Taiwan”, just that it costs $2 billion a plane…).
I don’t mind the roasting, its just a thougth exersise
On twitter. In a nutshell
——+
My personal opinion on Trump’s comments this morning is that Israel knew exactly what the f@@k they were doing and if there is anyone who really doesn’t know what the f@@k they are doing that person is Donald Trump.
Trump is right to be angry with both Iran and Israel. At the same time he ought to be realising that in foreign policy he is out of his depth.
He seems to genuinely believe he can persuade or force anyone into a deal. He may be learning his bargaining power disappears when a struggle is existential and money won’t fix it. He has a lot less power the moment he leaves US shores.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 at 10:33 pm
On twitter. In a nutshell
——+
My personal opinion on Trump’s comments this morning is that Israel knew exactly what the f@@k they were doing and if there is anyone who really doesn’t know what the f@@k they are doing that person is Donald Trump.
中华人民共和国
I think you get quote of the day Victoria. Even it’s from twitter, it’s a bottler. Well deserved.
Emmanuel Macron makes a statement I agree with:
“ French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that there was “no legal basis” for the US strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, even as France “shares the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons”……
Macron reiterated his opposition to regime change in Iran by force, arguing that history had shown such interventions to be misguided. “Every time that path has been taken – however legitimate the initial motive may have seemed – it has proven to be a mistake, if not a grave error, and has never led to greater stability,” he said.”
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/macron-slams-us-strikes-on-iran-as-lacking-legal-basis/
Bizzcan at 8.45 am and 10.29 pm and Socrates at 9.14 am
You need to be more specific about Israel’s (and Netanyahu’s) objectives.
Even “destabilising Iran” is rather vague as a determining objective. Any dogmatic militarist, such as Putin, would have a list of particular aims, and Netanyahu is no different.
It is far from clear that regime change in Iran was an Israeli objective. Unlike Putin in Ukraine, the Israelis did not try to overthrow the Iranian regime.
Obviously there were two main Israeli objectives, one military and the other political.
The military objective was showing the extent of Israel’s superiority, and attacking elements of Iran’s nuclear program, to obstruct and delay whatever plans the Iranians had.
Israel was careful not in limiting the scale of civilian casualties, but rather in not killing Russian scientists who were at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
It is doubtful that the Israeli military think privately that they lost this war.
However, the political objective is much clearer, at least for Netanyahu.
Before this war he was increasingly unpopular in Israel. Despite the loss of lives in Israel, including lives of Palestinians killed by Iranian strikes, Netanyahu is temporarily popular.
An analogy with Thatcher in 1982 is clear, except she had an excuse in that a British territory was really attacked.
So for Netanyahu war remains, as Clausewitz said, a “continuation of politics by other means”. He has temporarily reversed his unpopularity and shifted the spotlight away from the horror of his crimes in Gaza.
How long that shift lasts is uncertain.
But Netanyahu has one big difference from Putin, who faces a hypothetical prospect of being tried for war crimes at the International Criminal Court. For Netanyahu this is still a remote prospect, but not just hypothetical, so it will affect his political calculations.
And the point about the AUKUS subs is not that they would lead to nuclear weapons, but rather that the design chosen (in contrast to the cheaper alternative French design) would require a higher level of enrichment than what Iran had so far achieved.
As the ABC journo Raf Epstein said on Insiders, where is the evidence of an immediate Iranian nuclear threat?
Mr Speers asked Marles on 7.30 if he had seen any such evidence. Marles refused to answer. The implication was unavoidable: he hadn’t seen any.
“Daenerys “Stormborn” Targaryen, First of Her Name, Mother of Dragons, The Unburnt, Khaleesi of the Dothraki, Queen of Meereen, the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm”
And we all know how that ended…
New thread.
Chris Hedges Report: “War is a business. So is genocide. The latest report submitted by Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, lists 48 corporations and institutions, including Palantir Technologies Inc., Lockheed Martin, Alphabet Inc., Amazon, International Business Machine Corporation (IBM), Caterpillar Inc., Microsoft Corporation and Massachusetts Institue of Technology (MIT), along with banks and financial firms such as Blackrock, insurers, real estate firms and charities, which in violation of international law are making billions from the occupation and the genocide of Palestinians.
The report, which includes a database of over 1,000 corporate entities that collaborate with Israel, demands these firms and institutions sever ties with Israel or be held accountable for complicity in war crimes. It describes “Israel’s “forever-occuption” as “the ideal testing ground for arms manufacturers and Big Tech – providing significant supply and demand, little oversight, and zero accountability – while investors and private and public institutions profit freely.”
…”