Tasmania faces its second state election in 15 months after Governor Barbara Baker today granted the dissolution and July 19 election requested by Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff after his defeat last week in a parliamentary no-confidence motion. Rockliff made his request yesterday, but was told by Baker she would spend the next few days considering all options. However, it appears she heard enough when Labor leader Dean Winter ruled out trying to form a new government, the announcement of the fresh election being made late this afternoon. I will now set to work on getting a guide to the election place as quick as humanly possible, and will as usual be publishing live results and projections on election night and beyond.
The election held in March last year, which was likewise held early in a vain bid by Rockliff to strengthen his position in parliament, returned 14 Liberal, ten Labor, five Greens, three Jacqui Lambie Network and three independent members, with the Liberals forming a minority government after obtaining guarantees from the JLN members (two of whom quit the party in very short order) and more qualified support from two of the independents. The most contentious issue in Tasmanian politics of recent times has been a plan to contribute $615 million to construction of a stadium presently budgeted at $945 million that will house a new AFL team to enter the competition in 2028. As dearly as Tasmanians would love their own team in the competition, there is a distinctive sense that the state is being fleeced by a rapacious AFL and that the imposition is more than the state can afford. However, the plan has the support of both major parties, prompting a sense within Labor that cross-benchers were stealing their thunder in leading the charge against the government on the issue.
When Treasurer Guy Barnett foreshadowed privatisations in bringing down a budget last week that forecast deficit and debt blowouts, Labor leader Dean Winter saw an opportunity to deal the party back in the game by moving a no confidence motion against Rockliff and challenging the cross-benchers to support it. As well as the state of the budget, Labor was also able to invoke the government’s disastrous failure to provide adequate berthing facilities for new Bass Strait ferries operating out of Devonport, prompting the resignation of Treasurer Michael Ferguson last October. Ignoring Rockliff’s threats of a fresh election, the Greens and two independents lent the motion their support, and it duly carried by a single vote last Thursday.
There were suggestions that Winter aimed to do no more than claim the scalp of Rockliff as Premier, but the Liberals have been resolute in their determination to maintain him as leader, in the teeth of criticism from the business community and conservative Liberal Senator Jonathan Duniam. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a view that the party would do better at a prompt election with Rockliff than by “waiting for the next crisis and facing voters with a less popular alternative, such as Michael Ferguson”. For his part, Winter has rejected the notion of Labor taking over without an election in a government that would rely on the support of the Greens.
Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system involves five electoral divisions (the same ones that apply at federal level) electing seven members each (increased from five at the 2024 election), making it difficult for either major party to score a majority. The Greens won five seats last year, balancing a failure in the Braddon division by winning two seats in Clark. Jacqui Lambie says her party will not contest the election, and unless the members have done a better job ingratiating themselves locally than I am crediting them with, their seats in Bass, Braddon and Lyons (the latter being the only one remaining with the party) presumably represent low-hanging fruit for other parties. Presumably better placed are Kristie Johnston (Clark), David O’Byrne (Franklin) and Craig Garland (Braddon), who were elected as independents in 2024.
The most recent poll from the state, conducted by EMRS from May 13 to 17, had Labor in its strongest position since it last held office in 2010, albeit that this amounted to only 31% of the vote, compared with 29.0% last March. The Liberals were down from 36.7% to 29%, with the Greens holding steady on 14% compared with 13.9%. The poll continued to gauge support for the Jacqui Lambie Network, who were on 6%. Labor presumably has high hopes of improving off its low base of two seats in each of the five divisions, particularly after its 9.0% swing in the state at the federal election. However, it faces a major challenge in winning enough seats to meet its own pre-condition of governing without the support of the Greens, and with the Liberals also on the downswing after 11 years in government, there is a strong possibility that the election will fail in its presumed goal of breaking the parliamentary deadlock.
You little beauty. How good is democracy! We should all get to vote once every six months, keep all the bas*ards on their toes!
I did not think it would to take long for the governor to find out that Winter was not interested in attempting to form government. I wonder why she said it would take days.
Do we want a Tasmanian Bonus Election PB get together in Hobart?
Hey William, are you sure it’s a 15-year Liberal government? As opposed to an 11-year one??!! p.s. I’m laughing WITH you; you do an awesome job on here
If Labor really want to form government without the Greens, Labor need to win the following (assuming the three independents elected last year hold their seats):
The three JLN seats in Bass, Braddon and Lyons;
The Libs’ third seat in Franklin (or hope Peter George does);
The Greens’ second seat in Clark.
That gets (Labor+other) to 18, a bare majority. All those five things are individually plausible, but it’s a fine needle to thread. If any one of them doesn’t happen, they have to gain TWO seats somewhere (a swing of at least 20%, or rely on Hare-Clark flavoured weirdness – maybe preference leakage from Bridget Archer in Bass?). And if all that happens, they have to get Garland, O’Byrne, Johnston and possibly Peter George all agreeing with (a) each other and (b) Labor, reliably enough that there isn’t yet another election next year.
Realistically, it’s either gonna be a badly wounded Liberal govt staggering on, or Labor and the Greens working together whether anybody involved likes it or not.
The notion that it’s possible for Labor, in a proportional representation system, to form a majority government without the leftmost 10-plus percent of the population is completely nonsensical. It’s worse than Germany, where the SPD has had intractable problems forming stable governments while maintaining a cordon sanitaire against Die Linke. But that’s a smaller fraction of the electorate!
I don’t get what they’re playing at here. Even if they draw the extraordinarily good results that they pulled in the Federal Senate race (unlikely since they don’t have Dutton as a foil this time), that’s not even in the same postcode as a majority. It’s reminiscent of that famous visual joke about the Democrats from the Simpsons:
https://youtu.be/TMRmuyy9f_w?t=39
So, it would seem neither major party has any real chance of forming majority government…..
I suspect we will get another similar result as last March, maybe a few more Labor this time, but either way 18 seats seems a long way off.
If the people elect a pot puri they are really saying – we elected you lot – now form a government. Interesting times have come.
(Poor old ALP – they might just have to respect the wishes of the people, and form government with others…..). The electorate may yet say, yeah, we vote for you but you refuse to form government, maybe we should vote for someone who will.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/06/2025-tasmanian-election-guide-main-page.html 2025 Tasmanian Election Guide: Main Page
Nitpick for Kevin:
Ind 5, surely? 3 elected last year, 2 ex-JLN.
B.S. Fairman at 8.01 pm and Bird of paradox at 9.08 pm
Perhaps the Governor was cautiously doing expectations management.
Labor have a challenge in doing that.
Winter elections were common a century ago (the three in the 1920s were all in early June or end of May), but there have been only 4 winter elections since 1945:
1948 Labor win on seats with a 49.4% primary after swing away, governing with support of independent(s);
1979 Labor won easily on a 54.3% primary but term ended in a huge failure with a 17.5% swing away less than 3 years later;
1998 Labor won well under Jim Bacon with 44.6% primary getting 14 seats;
2002 Labor landslide under Bacon with 51.8% primary, but still got the same number of seats (14 out of 25).
On the May poll Labor’s primary is now about 20% lower than in 2002.
The most likely way Labor could govern in the way Mr Winter says, without accommodating the Greens, is to win 2 seats off the Libs in the N.
They did that at the federal election but doing so in the state poll will be harder. If they win only one they could probably get support from 18 MPs in a tight contest, at best, relying on the Speaker’s casting vote.
They are likely to win the ex-Lambie seats, getting to 13, but not beat Peter George in Franklin or probably the second Green in Clark.
Some of the Lambie vote in Braddon will go to Garland. If he gets reelected and O’Byrne, Johnston and George win, and all 4 give confidence to Labor, they would cobble together 17 without gains from the Libs.
The retirement of Michelle O’Byrne may limit Labor’s prospects in Bass, as will Archer standing there. As with the federal poll the swing against the Libs may be stronger in Braddon. In the election in March 2024 there was already a big swing from the Libs, but not much of it went to Labor.
So Mr Winter’s winter gamble may come down to how much of the big federal swing in Braddon Labor can repeat at the state election.
Rockliff is from Braddon, whereas alternative Liberal leaders would presumably have performed poorer there. It is not hard to see why most of the Lib MPs preferred Rockliff.
MABWMsays:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:17 pm
They may also say … poor Libs … formed government with others …… you’ve stuffed up the State’s debt …. signed off on an unaffordable AFL stadium in the South, on an unworkable site, ignored the other sports, particularly soccer and basketball and refused to work with the existing election outcome and now run off and have a sook because you (the Liberals) can’t get your way because “aren’t we are great”.
What an over governed “pot bellied” little island, given disproportionate Federal representation, a smorgasbord of councils, an overabundance of natural resources and a place to finish a yacht race.
The Liberals will pay a large electoral price for allowing the AFL to dictate and impose the AFL’s wishes on an entire appendage.
The election and Hare-Clark system will provide an interesting interlude between more significant elections.
Hoping we get another poll before the election, it’ll be interesting to see who the public blames for having to go back to the polls so soon
Of course there’s only one poll that matters and that’s on the 19th. Time for Tasmanians to send a message to the major parties
Well hopefully
The notion that it’s possible for Labor, in a proportional representation system, to form a majority government without the leftmost 10-plus percent of the population is completely nonsensical. It’s worse than Germany, where the SPD has had intractable problems forming stable governments while maintaining a cordon sanitaire against Die Linke. But that’s a smaller fraction of the electorate!
I don’t get what they’re playing at here. Even if they draw the extraordinarily good results that they pulled in the Federal Senate race (unlikely since they don’t have Dutton as a foil this time), that’s not even in the same postcode as a majority. It’s reminiscent of that famous visual joke about the Democrats from the Simpsons:
https://youtu.be/TMRmuyy9f_w?t=39”
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A pretty fair assesssment of the perennial problem confronting Labor down here since they totally abandoned the idea of working with the Greens in 2014.
The Labor-Greens arrangement worked reasonably well between 2010-14 but, as I’ve posted before, Labor people now claim (totally wrongly in my view) that it cost them the 2014 election and has contributed to their being in the wilderness ever since.
There are reasons to believe that, as in the ACT, a Labor-Greens alliance in government can work down here. The heat has completely gone out of the forestry issue. The Tassie Greens are far more environmentally-focused and less communistic re the Federal Greens. And I suspect that a high proportion of the educated, middle class voters who hold sway on the political left in Australia would be comfortable with it.
I can’t see any demographic trends down here that are likely to promote the sort of substantial jump in Labor’s primary vote that would be required for them to form a government without the Greens. Labor’s traditional working class base is shrinking. And the local equivalent to the sorts of educated, affluent, urban voters who are increasingly critical to the party’s continuing viability are even more focused on environmental issues than are their mainland counterparts. A growing proportion of them are former mainlanders who have moved down here to embrace the wilderness and to get away from rising temperatures caused by climate change. These attitudes tend to draw a lot of them towards the local Greens or to inner city/hobby farmer independents like Wilkie or perhaps Peter George.
I believe that Dean Winter understands these things, but the still-powerful left faction down here most certainly doesn’t: they believe in their hearts that it is stilll possible for Labor to return to the good old days of Jim Bacon and Paul Lennon and achieve outright majority government. Well, given the Federal result, this coming election ought to be their best possible chance to do this. If they don’t come close, they are seriously going to have to rethink their long-term strategy.
And then there’s the Albo factor. His over-the-top embrace of the salmon farming industry has put Labor down here in a very difficult position. At best, there are probably a few thousand votes across Braddon and Franklin that might be influenced by the issue (and, truth to tell, it’s probably closer to a few hundred). But that stance pretty much rules out any rapproachment for the Greens while Albo remains PM: just think what a field day the Federal Libs would have if Winter were to become Premier with the support of the Greens and then imposed some serious restrictions on the salmon industry.
Albo won’t care, as he despises the Greens and wants his party to have as little to do with them as possible. I suspect he only tolerates the ACT partnership because it was already in place when he became Federal leader (and note that it has become a bit cooler lately).
Where does this end? Who knows: perhaps Tasmania is becoming ungovernable. The Libs like being in government, and I reckon that Rockliff would even be prepared to do deals with the Greens under certain circumstances to stay in government. But the growing power of the right faction of the Libs put paid to any repeat of the 1996 Lib-Greens deal under Tony Rundle: I understand that Will Hodgman wanted to have a look at it in 2010, but Abetz soon put paid to that thought. And, given how betrayed that still feel about the Labor-Lib agreement to reduce the number of seats in the house from 35 to 25, I doubt that the Greens would be interested nowadays.
I think that, after the election, the Governor might use some strong arm tactics to try to push enough MPs into an alliance to create a majority on the floor. I suspect that she was contemplating doing this to Winter, the Greens and the independents this week, but thought that she’d be in a stronger position after an election has either put one of the major parties in a better position or else proven conclusively that Labor can no longer hope to govern without the Greens.
My profoundest apologies for the length of my previous post.
And I didn’t even mention the significant level of ill-feeling between the left and right factions of the ALP (Dean Winter coming from the right). Which is closely related to the demise of David O’Byrne as party leader. In which the independent Kristie Johnston played a leading role, meaning that it would be very difficult for Labor to include her in any government they might try to establish.
It’s a mess.
Good post Baba.
meher babasays:
Thursday, June 12, 2025 at 8:28 am
_____________________
A good summary of the issues and the state of play for us mainlanders.
No mention of the stadium though. Is that an election issue or not ?
Taylormade: “A good summary of the issues and the state of play for us mainlanders.
No mention of the stadium though. Is that an election issue or not ?”
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It’s a bit difficult for something to become a major election issue when both major parties support it.
So I think my answer to your question is “no.”
The Liberals could perhaps run the line that Labor doesn’t really support the stadium and are only pretending. But, given that the stadium seems to be particularly unpopular in the areas where the Liberals normally do well, I think they would prefer to keep it off the front pages.
Interesting, thanks meher baba
While I think the majors will prefer not to talk about the stadium I think everyone else will. They’d be mad not to if the polling is right and only 30% support it
Overall though, it’s definitely a mess. Surely the way forward is in line with what’s happening in the ACT now i.e. the Greens choosing to sit on the crossbench but supporting confidence and supply and that being accepted by Labor
Just a point about Labor and Greens in the ACT. There was a Labor-Greens government following the 2020 election with 10L and 6G in a 25 member assembly. However for some time prior to the 2024 election various Greens members were publicly expressing opposition to some government policies. The 2024 election resulted in the Greens having only four members while Labor remained at ten. The Greens now sit on the cross bench.
Labor has some wiggle room in relation to the stadium issue because they’ve talked about possibly relocating it which would take some of the heat out of the issue. The problem for the Liberals is that they are the ones who entered into a really crappy deal with the AFL.
Meyer Baba at 8:28. Just a small nitpick to say that since the last ACT election the Greens are no longer in a formal alliance with the Labor government. Informally, however….
In case people missed it, Dean Winter has locked in firmly with the stadium as is
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-08/tasmanian-political-leaders-stadium-support/105390918
@meher: I actually very much appreciated the length of your post, for the record. I doubt many of us on the outside have even a fraction of the knowledge needed to understand the local issues in such a small jurisdiction.
For what it’s worth (very little), I was actually shocked by Labor’s crushing 2PP win at the federal election in Tas. My assumption going in, given its generally rural and small-town demographics and the Libs’ win in 2024, was that it would probably again trend 2-4 points to the right of the national average. (It had of course trended right by more than 5% in 2022.) Had that happened, you’d have seen results similar to those in Victoria. Instead, it moved way to the left, so much so that it has actually trended slightly left relative to the 2019 national average (moving left 7.38% compared to a national average of 6.81%). Maybe that’s the influx of New Age Rural Professionals* types you mentioned, I dunno.
Be that as it may, this is 2025. You’re not going to get enough renegade NARPs to switch first preferences to Labor to get a majority. Anyone who thinks that’s a real possibility is living in cloud-cuckoo-land.
The historian in me wonders what reserve powers the Governor might theoretically deploy in the service of the strong-arming you discuss. Could she declare that inasmuch as neither the pre-election government nor the post-election government can form a majority capable of offering binding advice, she’s exercising the viceregal prerogative to form her own executive council? Would anyone buy that that council would have any legitimacy? Could Harry and Meghan be made monarchs of Tasmania as a kind of appanage? Inquiring minds want to know.
*With apologies to the late great Utah Phillips for reusing this particular acronym.
Paul Thomas
I don’t know about Harry and Meghan, but I reckon an interim EC chaired by the Governor could be an option. The state could then be largely run by public servants a la the ACT up to 1989. The electorate actually preferred that state of affairs and perhaps Tasmanians might like it too.
I must say, if the election produces a hung parliament and neither party is willing to form an coalition with cross-benchers or each other, then I think the Tasmanian people will have the right to feel very let down by our pollies.
Oh, and I know quite a few NARPs and my impression is that Albo’s salmon shenanigans has hardened their anti-Labor attitudes, if anything. (Of course, they’ll still preference Labor over the Libs, but that won’t help much.)
One last thought, and then I must away.
I’m sorry to take the Green-bashing Labor luvvies of PB into a dark place, but how’s this for a scenario?
Labor potentially could have seized government this week through a coalition with the Greens and some of the independents: most likely Garland and some of the JLN. (Johnston and O’Byrne are tricky for reasons I’ve already discussed.)
How will Labor feel if, after the election, they are in a position where they can’t even aspire to do something like that? That is, they could have been in government, but they blew it.
They would wish to dump Winter, but there’s no obvious alternative apart from bringing back O’Byrne into the party or the leadership, which would reopen Pandora’s can of worms (as the Coodabeens used to say).
As the late Brian Wilson put it, we’re going to have “fun, fun, fun” down here.
Josh Willie is the next cab off the rank.
Apologies in advance for a few random thoughts:
Inter alia, the use of the Hare Clark system in Tasmania, a history of very stable electoral boundaries, Robson rotation, the banning of how to vote cards and the resultant intra-party competition between endorsed candidates makes it unwise to juxtapose Federal voting intentions on what might happen at Tasmania state elections. The result is that State members get well known and can and do build up relatively strong personal followings. And never forget the impact of North / South rivalries (in the interests of disclosure, I’m in Bass). As an example, a good State member in the small town dominated Northern electorates will turn up at every small town community event which makes it difficult for new candidates unless they have an existing public profile. Which partly explains why we have so many recycled ex-Federal members and media personalities in State parliament and in the tiny Upper House electorates, why it is almost impossible to dislodge a sitting MLC once they have been elected for the first time.
And while probably reducing, the impact of the ‘anyone but the Greens factor’ is still very prevalent in the North. As an example, many of my friends (strong Unionists all) who would never dream of voting Federally for anyone other than Labor, will switch at State level, receptive to the argument that the Green tail will wag a Labor minority government. As an aside, for a surreal experience have a look at the 2004 CFMEU rally in the Albert Hall where John Howard was greeted like a conquering hero.
And being such a small pond, the intra-party issues play out very openly, and because they are so often personal in nature, they become just that much more intractable and on-going.
I checked Ariarne Titmus’s ‘gram but if she has any deep thoughts on the election, she’s keeping them to herself. Admittedly, she may be a bit busy at the moment with balloting day eight days prior to the first swim session of World Champs (if she’s even still registered there).
I don’t know who the next most famous Tasmanian athlete would be. I guess there’s Richie Porte, but he’s a bit of last decade’s news at this point.
“Labor potentially could have seized government this week through a coalition with the Greens and some of the independents.”
There’s no such thing as a Coalition with the Greens. They would backstab Labor whenever they felt they could morally grandstand on an issue and bring down the Government anyway.
Post-election if I were the Governor I’d be threatening the Parliament with picking members to dismiss or suspend, under the idea that if a Governor can dismiss the entire Government, surely they have the power to do it individually to members who refuse to provide supply, reducing the margin required to pass supply.
With whoever installed as Premier, and supply passed the Government can continue as normal.
Ghost of Whitlam: “There’s no such thing as a Coalition with the Greens. They would backstab Labor whenever they felt they could morally grandstand on an issue and bring down the Government anyway.”
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With previous Lab-Green and Lib-Green coalitions/agreements re supply in Tassie, there seems to have been a tacit understanding between the two parties that they would have a mutual falling out a month or two out from the election period so that they can try to re-establish themselves as separate brands in the minds of the voters.
Apart from that, the governments supported by the Greens generally seem to have functioned ok. As is indeed the case with the arrangements in the ACT as well.
Having said all this, I totally agree that, taken as a whole, the Federal Greens are untrustworthy. Some individuals are ok: eg, SH-Y and, to a certain extent, Larissa. But there are too many wannabe Bolsheviks in the Federal Greens.
Paul Thomas: “I checked Ariarne Titmus’s ‘gram but if she has any deep thoughts on the election, she’s keeping them to herself. Admittedly, she may be a bit busy at the moment with balloting day eight days prior to the first swim session of World Champs (if she’s even still registered there).
I don’t know who the next most famous Tasmanian athlete would be. I guess there’s Richie Porte, but he’s a bit of last decade’s news at this point.”
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When the Titmus family was still in Tassie, Ariarne’s father used to be closely tied to the McQuestin family, several of whom are/were powerful Launceston-based Liberal apparatchiks with close ties to the forestry industry. Of course, that doesn’t mean that Ariarne shares those views. But she’s been living in Queensland long enough that I doubt she’s enrolled down here.
Otherwise, the best-known sportspeople in Tassie are David Boon and woodchopper David Foster. I have no idea what the politics of either might be, although Foster did campaign against banning poker machines some time back.
Ricky Ponting is perhaps even more famous than those two, but he’s lived in Melbourne for a long time now.
There are also a dozen or more Tassie players in the AFL, but they all live elsewhere and not that many of them return to live in Tassie after their careers are over. Jack Riewoldt is probably the most significant one of recent times, but he still lives in Melbourne as far as I know (and I believe his cousin, Nick Riewoldt, who left Tassie as a kid but still has ties, lives in Texas). One who did come back, in the 1970s, was Ray Groom, who eventually became a Liberal Premier.
Apart from Groom way back when, and more recently Boon and Kelly, Tassie sportspeople have tended to have rather distant relationships with the community here, as their work takes them away a great deal and often permanently. I believe Richie Porte is living here these days, but I haven’t seen much about him in the media, so I assume he’s trying to keep a low profile.
We did have a sports commentator who was a Labor MP for all of 3 months: Neville Oliver, an ABC cricket commentator, who was dubbed the Doctor by the BBC’s Brian Johnston on account of his initials (NO, so “Dr No”).
Probably a Minority Labor gov. Not too sure though.
“I don’t know who the next most famous Tasmanian athlete would be.”
Outside AFL players it’s probably Nathaniel Atkinson by virtue of being a fringe Socceroo.
On the Tasmanian election, by Ethan James in the CityNews:
https://citynews.com.au/2025/budget-debt-and-waterfront-stadium-light-up-island-poll/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
I’m a passionate Tasmanian who in my 20’s was a Green voter, have since been a Labor voter (now in my 50’s).
To be honest I am over the lack of governing in the state and annoyed at Labor for pushing this, another election after 14 months is ridiculous.
Means there is lack of clarity within government on funding once again after a budget that has scant to no detail in it. This is not just the Libs fault this has occurred due to over a decade of a decimation of people within Departments who have any knowledge of the community sector and no structure for appropriate contract management across sectors.
With an election due soon in Tasmania, and commentary about the unhealthy relationship between the Tas government and its puppeteer, the AFL, its worthwhile to consider, IMO, the unhealthy influence of big business in governments in the other States.
NSW appears to have an unhealthy relationship with both the ARL/ NRL and gambling companies.
Victorias second level of government is the AFL. No surprise there.
Qld alternative government is Mining and to a lesser degree, the Courier Mail and the QRL.
Tasmania, well…..who else could hogtie a State to a debt that can it obviously not afford in any way. And its mates in the Salmon industry can pretty well do anything they want. Add gambling influences as well and you have almost powerless government in the State.
WA…. well no prizes for thinking Mining….
The NT is under the thumb of Mining and other extractive industries.
SA. I don’t know what businesses have the ear of whoever is in power. But money and employment are major influences as they are in all the States.
That leaves the Federal Government. No matter who is in power, it’s safe to say big business has the major Parties in a squirrel grip.
Is it overtly cynical to suggest that?
I am not accusing State governments of corruption.
I understand how employment/ big employers are big factors in any governments thinking, as fundamentally it’s all about the next election.
The Tasmanian election shines a strong light on extra governmental influences.
Katsukas’ cartoon today has deeper connotations than just a government that appears to not want to upset anyone. Maybe a third- term Labor government will break the shackles.
“Victorias second level of government is the AFL. ”
I assume here you mean Federal then AFL then State then Council.
Perhaps, just perhaps, to get a stable government Green voters may desert to Labor
Good insight thanks Rambler.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/06/announcedexpected-candidates-for-2025.html Announced/Expected Candidates for the 2025 Tasmanian Election.
The result could be a parliament as badly hung as before. Lots of independents combined with the Greens; you could have a situation where neither major party is going to be able to form a stable government. That doesn’t mean a government won’t be created but there might not be any supply and confidence agreements holding it together.
Also I suspect Peter George will ruin the Greens chances of a 2nd MP from Franklin as I suspect there would significant overlap of voters.
The notion that it’s possible for Labor, in a proportional representation system, to form a majority government without the leftmost 10-plus percent of the population is completely nonsensical. It’s worse than Germany, where the SPD has had intractable problems forming stable governments while maintaining a cordon sanitaire against Die Linke. But that’s a smaller fraction of the electorate!
I don’t get what they’re playing at here. Even if they draw the extraordinarily good results that they pulled in the Federal Senate race (unlikely since they don’t have Dutton as a foil this time), that’s not even in the same postcode as a majority. It’s reminiscent of that famous visual joke about the Democrats from the Simpsons:
https://youtu.be/TMRmuyy9f_w?t=39
Yet you chose to not mention the ‘Republican convention’ the immediate frames before? That is an interesting choice.
meher baba at 9.27 pm
Yes, the Libs will try to avoid talking about the stadium but why would that work?
Dr Bonham lists the stadium as the second in his current list of 6 major issues, after budget repair (which it is clearly part of), and before salmon, asset sales, big project failures and stability. Those may not be listed in terms of relative importance, as salmon is the least important one.
The main point is that none of those issues favour the Libs, especially asset sales, project failures and stability. There may be a crossover in public perceptions between project failures and the stadium, certainly in the N.
There was one genuine poll about the stadium showing 59% no to 36% yes, i.e. nearly two thirds opposed, with close to two thirds in the two N seats.
What is Rockliff’s main argument? “Vote Lib for Stability”? Dr Bonham suggests it won’t wash, because the past two of Rockliff’s governments fell apart when given a stress test.
Dr Bonham also seems doubtful about Rockliff’s attempt to portray Winter as the incarnation of a Wrecker with a Tantrum. Not all wreckers lose, as Dr Bonham implies with federal lessons from 1975 and 2013. Indeed, Rockliff might ponder whether he or Winter is more like Fraser in 1975.
Note that the time between the 1974 and 1975 federal elections was little more than the 16 months between the 2024 and 2025 Tasmanian elections.
Meanwhile the federal Nats are trying to launch a beachhead in N Tasmania, relying on disgruntled Libs who are opposed to a Hobart only stadium.
Given the issues as identified so far by Dr Bonham, if Labor can’t surpass the Libs on their seat tally, that’s a big fail.
Cut down interview yesterday (due to the AUKUS stuff) with Sarah Lovell, Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council yesterday morning
Seems pretty obvious Labor was just expecting to roll Rockcliff but not end up with an election, well not straight away anyhow
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/tasmanian-election-called-for-july-19/105406744
Dr Doolittle: yes, the stadium is a big issue in people’s minds, and will probably help to sustain the minor party vote at a higher level than would otherwise be the case (given that one would think it likely to decrease a bit with the demise of the JLN). But I’m struggling to see how it’s going to have much of an impact in the battle between Labor and Liberal, given that they are both supporting it.
And I really can’t see any comparison between what’s happened this week and the 1975 Federal Dismissal. On that occasion, Fraser and a friendly media had been able to develop an overwhelming case over several months that the Whitlam Government had descended into chaos (which doesn’t mean that I think that he was at all justified in blocking supply in the Senate, but that’s a debate for another day). Fraser was able to explain clearly to the public why it was necessary to put him in charge, and the public bought it.
On this occasion – if I might borrow a famous phrase coined by the 19th century historian John Seeley in relation to the rise of the British Empire – Labor starts from the position of appearing to have brought down the Rockliff Government in a “fit of absence of mind.” I think they wanted to bring on an election soon, but they don’t seem to be quite ready, so I think events slipped out of their control a little bit.
The job for Labor now will be to make a case to the public that tearing down the Rockliff Government was a necessary act. They haven’t exactly hit the ground running in doing this. A potential problem for them could be that, while Winter has expressed his undying love for the stadium, several of those who joined Labor in the no confidence motion did so because they oppose the stadium. That muddies the waters a bit.
A further issue is that the 25-50 year old voters who will decide the election are less and less inclined to read local papers or watch local TV news. Most of the information they get comes from word of mouth, breakfast DJs and to some extent from this website
https://pulsetasmania.com.au/
Labor’s job is to somehow get a message out through these channels that the Rockliff Government is a total shambles and deserves to be booted, and that Labor represents the safe alternative. But while Malcolm Fraser could run the line in 1975 that the Coalition was the safe option as they had been in government only three years earlier, Labor’s “good old days” under Bacon are now more than two decades back, and the under-4os won’t remember much about them.
I guess the other thing Labor can try is to flood the zone with images of Dutton. That might help a little bit.
It’s going to be tough for Labor. They are a team of relative unknowns (plus, according to Dr B, Brian Mitchell, which doesn’t seem like a good idea to me). If you went to a pub and asked people to name two state Labor politicians other than Winter, they’d probably come up with the O’Byrne siblings: one of whom is retiring and the other is out of the party. So there’s a name recognition problem, on top of which Labor urgently needs a good story as to why this election was absolutely necessary. The obvious one was that the stadium is an unaffordable white elephant and needs to be stopped at all costs, but they aren’t prepared to go down that path.
Having said all of that, I don’t blame them at all for bringing the election on. The opportunites to bathe in the afterglow of the Federal result is the best chance they are likely to have this side of the 2030s to boost their level of representation in parliament. But an absolute majority looks a long way out of reach, and there are no guarantees that the composition of the house after the election will be any more helpful to them than it is now.
The wild horse in this election will be the Nats.
They effectively replace the JLN as the party of protest for non-left leaning voters. The Nats will also have a better chance of holding their party together after the election, and are more likely to align with the Libs in any post election negotiations. That doesn’t bode well for Labor as their strategy of getting back to government goes directly thorough picking up the 3 JLN seats.
A deep research documentary has been released on the Tasmanian situation.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/166c1VvyFo/
@meher baba. Thanks for your contribution.
“ and there are no guarantees that the composition of the house after the election will be any more helpful to them than it is now.”
That’s the rub isn’t it? Given the ALP expects to pick up a couple of seats, it’s hard to see how they foresee anything other than a more or less dead heat with the libs.
They are likely going to have to play with others whether they want to or not. The electorate is going to tire of voting for pollies who refuse to form government.
And the Duckworth Lewis system of voting is designed to not give majorities. Although it assists with rain delays.
Interesting times..
ABC News: JLN and PHON will not contest July Tas State election.