The potential for a Liberal legal challenge to the result in Bradfield remains the only complication to a resolution of the federal election, with a 40-day period for the lodgement of such a challenge to commence when the Australian Electoral Commission returns the writs, which it must do by July 9. The impasse also stands in the way of a final resolution of the national two-party preferred result, with the AEC relating it is loath to disturb the ballot papers as required to complete its Labor-versus-Liberal count for the seat. The current progress result recorded for the seat on the AEC site is stuck at an early stage accounts for only about 10% of the total, and is evidently dominated by strong areas for the Liberals. With full results available for all other seats, the final result looks likely to land at 55.2-44.8 to Labor.
We remain in something of a limbo on the federal polling front. Roy Morgan had the first voting intention poll of the term last week, but has apparently not resumed its normal weekly schedule. Peter Lewis of Essential Research says his agency’s normally fortnightly poll is “on a post-election sabbatical/hiatus for a few months”. Experience suggests Newspoll in The Australian may be another month away, and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers perhaps another month more.
Never fear though, for a snap Tasmanian election may shortly be upon us, just 14 months after an election at which the Liberals held on to power with the support of a now alienated cross-bench. The state’s Governor currently considering Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s request for a dissolution following last week’s parliamentary no confidence motion. I’ll have a post up on that when the situation becomes clearer, and if an election indeed ensues, will put together a guide for it as fast as humanly possible and set to work on live results. Local hero Kevin Bonham relates that the window for such an election is in the four weeks between July 19 and August 9.
Over 220 Iranians are killed by Israeli strikes on Iran facilities out of which 90% are civilians.
When asked why are Irian civilians are killed.
Answer: because they live in a country ruled by Islamists.
Why is that right?
Why are China and Russia not doing anything about it?
With regard to Santos:
“The bid needs to clear a number of regulatory hurdles.
By Santos’s reckoning there’s the Foreign Investment Review Board, ASIC, the National Offshore Petroleum Titles Administrator, the PNG government’s securities, as well as competition commissions, and even a US foreign investment regulator.
Santos didn’t mention the South Australian government, but it has already said it plans to get involved, has levers it can pull, and, all up, was not overly impressed.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-16/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/105419516
“We’ve got legislation which puts us at the table. That means we’re going to use that legislation, and if the deal is not in the interests of South Australians, the South Australian government will say so and act accordingly. If this deal is not in the interests of Australia … then the Commonwealth government will look at it and have a say. If it is in both of our interests, it will go ahead; if it’s not, it won’t. It’s a very simple equation.”
Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis
https://theenergy.co/article/abu-dhabi-noc-rolls-firb-dice-for-santos
Ven, Monday, June 16, 2025 at 8:10 pm:
Why would you expect Russia to do anything about it? They have shown by their own genocidal campaign against Ukrainians how little they care about civilian casualties in war.
Also, Iran has been supplying Russia with drones and missiles for three years now – drones and missile which have killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians.
I abhor all civilian deaths in war. I therefore fervently wish for the downfall of the murderous regimes in Moscow, Tehran and Tel Aviv.
newy boy
First of all Russia bought a lot of drones from Iran to strike against Ukraine
Second of all
Regarding China’s action.
Israel-Iran conflict: China may ‘strike us’ through proxies after Iran setback, Gordon Chang warns
https://timesofindia-indiatimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-iran-conflict-china-may-strike-us-through-proxies-after-iran-setback-gordon-chang-warns/amp_articleshow/121853309.cms?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17500563887336&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Ftimesofindia.indiatimes.com%2Fworld%2Fmiddle-east%2Fisrael-iran-conflict-china-may-strike-us-through-proxies-after-iran-setback-gordon-chang-warns%2Farticleshow%2F121853309.cms
““Iran being set back on its heels by Israel means nothing is off the table for China and its military advances,” said Gordon Chang, senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute, in an interview on Fox Business Network’s Varney & Co on Friday.
According to Chang, Iran has long served as a vehicle for China’s foreign policy goals in the Middle East. “The Chinese… they’re losing their proxy, Iran. Iran has been accomplishing China’s foreign policy goals for quite some time. And China’s Middle East policy is now in disarray,” he stated.”
“Chang warned that China may not quietly accept the blow to its regional ambitions. “This is a point where China is suffering a terrible loss in the Middle East,” he said. “It is not going to take that lying down, and it’s probably going to get Iran or some other party to strike us.”
China’s support for Iran has been extensive, particularly through oil and weapons trade. “China was supporting the attacks on Israel across the board with elevated commodity purchases,” Chang explained. “Remember, China has taken more than 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, but also provided weapons support.””
Qantas pilot passes out in cockpit minutes after landing in Sydney
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/qantas-pilot-passes-out-in-cockpit-minutes-after-landing-in-sydney-20250616-p5m7qt.html
Flying suitcases packed with Hard Drives to China, taking hundreds of servers on rent and …: How Chinese AI companies dodge US chip ban
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/flying-suitcases-packed-with-hard-drives-to-china-taking-hundreds-of-servers-on-rent-and-how-chinese-ai-companies-dodge-us-chip-ban/articleshow/121850473.cms
”
In a bid to bypass stringent US restrictions on advanced AI chips, Chinese companies are resorting to innovative workarounds, including processing data abroad. According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, in early March, four Chinese engineers traveled from Beijing to Malaysia, each carrying a suitcase with 15 hard drives containing 80 terabytes of data for training an AI model.
Don’t want to continue: Audio of Air India Dreamliner that returned to Hong Kong
The Air India flight AI 315 returned to Hong Kong after nearly 90 minutes of take-off after a technical glitch was reportedly detected in the aircraft.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/air-india-dreamliner-hong-kong-delhi-flight-technical-snag-after-take-off-2741498-2025-06-16
“The pilots of the Delhi-bound Air India flight, which returned to Hong Kong after nearly 90 minutes of take-off, didn’t want to continue their journey after a suspected technical glitch was detected in the aircraft. The Air India flight AI 315 took-off for Delhi from Hong Kong International Airport on Monday morning.
The pilot could be heard telling Air Traffic Control, “We don’t want to continue further.” The aircraft involved in the incident was also a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, the same aircraft model which crashed shortly after taking-off from Ahmedabad airport on Thursday, June 12, killing 241 out of 242 on board.
An audio of the pilot’s conversation with the Air Traffic Control has emerged where they are heard saying that they don’t want to continue and return to the airport.
Ven, Monday, June 16, 2025 at 8:26 pm:
Yes. That’s what I said:
Tehran is in a great big glass house when it comes to decrying civilian deaths in war. Tehran is an enabler of genocide in Ukraine.
”
newy boysays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 8:38 pm
Ven, Monday, June 16, 2025 at 8:26 pm:
newy boy
First of all Russia bought a lot of drones from Iran to strike against Ukraine
Yes. That’s what I said:
Iran has been supplying Russia with drones and missiles for three years now – drones and missile which have killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians.
Tehran is in a great big glass house when it comes to decrying civilian deaths in war. Tehran is an enabler of genocide in Ukraine.
”
Do you see that if China and Russia get involved in any way in this war, that will be very bad for the world and Australia will not escape the consequences from that.
With regard to Santos, maybe we should sell (or sack) their CEO, Kevin Gallagher. He’s more adept at culture warring than anything else:
“Santos boss Kevin Gallagher has taken an extraordinary shot at Victoria’s investment climate by comparing the State to North Korea, as the gas industry ramps up demands for cuts to red tape.”
https://thenightly.com.au/business/energy/santos-ceo-kevin-gallagher-likens-state-of-victoria-to-north-korea-c-18838548
This sort of rubbish is his standard fare.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 8:09 pm
The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is really just the Bendigo Bank which took over the Adelaide bank.
==========================================================
I was just stirring West Horsham.
Think it is a bit premature to criticise US military personnel for the apparent slovenly march-passed (past?) of Trump.
For those who watch the Edinburgh Tattoo they know full-well that various US outfits can do close-quarter drill with old fashioned rifles probably better than anyone else in any military outfit world-wide.
I wonder if the stroll-by was a deliberate insult to Trump?
Ven, I don’t see China getting involved any more than it has in the Russo-Ukrainian War: they’ll quietly support Tehran while donning a fig leaf of “encouraging de-escalation and fruitful dialogue”.
As for Russia, they’re stretched as it is trying to swallow what they can of Ukraine. Ukrainians are doing a great job of making that very unpleasant for Russians. Moscow will have nothing to help Tehran with.
China needs one thing above all – for Gulf oil to keep flowing.
Israel has hit just one of Iran’s oil production installations.
That would have been the reminder that Israel can switch off Iran’s oil flows any time it chooses so to do.
Iran has enough missiles in caves off the Straits of Hormuz to close the whole flow of oil and gas out of the Gulf.
IMO, behind the scenes, that is what all the talk will really be about.
@BS Fairman “The most embarrassing thing was the poor soldiers holding up drones. I am almost certain the plan had been for them to be flying above the troops as they marched but this got scuttled as a safety issue by the secret service. ”
Maybe they watched season 2 of that show Vigil – the season begins with Air Force drones going rogue and murdering VIPs while doing a demonstration flight.
BW, maybe China’s de-escalation rhetoric is actually sincere regarding Israel-Iran, then.
nb
Absolutely. The other thing that might be unnerving China (vis-a-vis Taiwan) is the consummate ease with which Israel, basically using US equipment with a few Israeli-produced enhancements, has achieved complete aerial dominance.
Diogenessays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 8:00 pm
Australia is looking more and more like it’s insignificant. SANTOS will be sold off making it the last seemingly significant SA based company to go.
We are like the dry leaves in the windy square.
==========================================================
How have the mighty fallen. Back in the 1970’s and 80’s Adelaide Steamship Company seemed to be taking over everyone.
Arky – It reminds me of the story of George W. Bush on September 11 being at Barksdale Air base where they fled after from Florida. The secret service were refusing the Air Force to drive Bush to the bases op centre because nobody drives the President but them, but there is a rule that only Air Force personal drive on the runways. Bush ultimately order one lot to stand down.
Rex Douglas @ #1505 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 4:00 pm
You may not, but the fossil fuel companies do.
RE: Liberals Review
My advice- cut all links to Sky News, Murdoch, Stokes etc. They are not helping your cause (whatever the hell it is).
Have the review lead by someone truly independent or an outsider- even Richo or a pollster etc…. you cant review yourself to success.
Oakeshott Country at 7.46 pm
It is not just SC Resolution 242.
International law, as declared by the International Court of Justice in 1996, includes a customary law obligation to negotiate nuclear disarmament.
The Court said all states, including Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea, share that obligation.
Of course it has been ignored by all states possessing nuclear weapons. Many states dislike international law.
Player Onesays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 9:06 pm
Rex Douglas @ #1505 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 4:00 pm
Socrates
Sorry but I have no confidence in Marles.
You may not, but the fossil fuel companies do.
=================================================================
How is it relevant if fossil fuel companies have confidence in our Defence Minister or not?
Are you expecting our new defence strategy to be based on an arsenal of Molotov Cocktails and napalm?
The decision not to allow an attack on Ali Khamenei is fairly pragmatic. If he had been killed, there would be a power struggle. It is very hard to negotiate a ceasefire if there is no clear leader.
Additionally, for Twelver Shiite Muslims he is the spiritual leader, like the Pope. It is a big step to pop such a figure.
Although if the conflict continues for weeks and Iranian missiles continue to fly into Israel for weeks, then we might see the Israelis ignoring the Americans, then asking for forgiveness.
Torchbearer @ #1571 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 9:09 pm
Heh, oh my god, just had to chuckle there at the thought that the Liberals need to turn to Graham Richardson for advice on how to avoid electoral oblivion.
That truly is the bottom of the barrel.
My advice- cut all links to Sky News, Murdoch, Stokes etc. They are not helping your cause (whatever the hell it is).
Have the review lead by someone truly independent or an outsider- even Richo or a pollster etc…. you cant review yourself to success.
==========================================================
I thought Richo works for Sky ?
So using him is negating the first lot of advice here. Which is cut all links to Sky.
newy boy @ #1563 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 8:47 pm
Iran sending its missiles and drones towards Israel will not help Russia either.
China has just started using the new railway link to Iran , http://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-Road/iran.html. Should be an interesting dynamic going forward.
I believe this link takes some pressure off sea routes for oil.
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 7:57 pm
Luigi Smith @ #1544 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 7:55 pm
OK. Back to the bingo cards.
Who had strange anomalous radio signals coming from beneath the ice in Antarctica?
https://www.sci.news/physics/anita-radio-signals-antarctic-ice-13986.html
Let’s investigate!
That’s honestly one of my favourite arcs in the Stargate series.
___________________
Or send in Mulder an Scully before the thing takes off again
Entropy @ #1574 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 9:13 pm
Fair point. I shouldn’t have singled out Marles. The fossil fuel companies have confidence in ALL Australian politicians, from ALL our major political parties. With good reason.
Pakistan has closed all its border crossings with neighbouring Iran for an indefinite period, provincial officials said on Monday, as Israel and Iran trade intense strikes and threaten further attacks.
“Border facilities in all five districts — Chaghi, Washuk, Panjgur, Kech and Gwadar — have been suspended,” Qadir Bakhsh Pirkani, a senior official in Balochistan province, which borders Iran, told AFP.
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 7:57 pm
Luigi Smith @ #1544 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 7:55 pm
OK. Back to the bingo cards.
Who had strange anomalous radio signals coming from beneath the ice in Antarctica?
https://www.sci.news/physics/anita-radio-signals-antarctic-ice-13986.html
Let’s investigate!
That’s honestly one of my favourite arcs in the Stargate series.
___________________
Or send in Mulder an Scully before the thing takes off again
========================================================
Probably an Emperor Penguin with a ham radio. Those penguins are big traders, hence the Trump tariffs.
Graham Richardson is the kinda person who used to be called “a colourful racing identity” in the evening newspapers.
Anyway, it would round out his biography nicely to be seen to sort the Liberal party out. He has sorted a few other things out in his colourful career – but mostly Labor problems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_Richardson
“Fair point. I shouldn’t have singled out Marles. The fossil fuel companies have confidence in ALL Australian politicians, from ALL our major political parties. With good reason.”
If you ever watched a Gina Rhinehart\Santos event then youd know that isn’t true.
Santos doesn’t like Victorian politicians: https://www.skynews.com.au/business/energy/santos-ceo-kevin-gallagher-likens-victoria-to-north-korea-as-debate-over-the-states-gas-policy-rages/news-story/856e2c400ec52a2ae09134e7e3bbc42b
The experience of an Australian refused entry to the USA, where he had worked and studied for six years:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/australian-deported-from-us-says-he-was-targeted-for-writing-on-palestine-protests-20250616-p5m7qn.html
Cat
“ Iran sending its missiles and drones towards Israel will not help Russia either.”
——————————————————————-
Every cloud has a silver lining.
I watched the Four Corners show on AUKUS tonight. It was a good summary but did not have anything dramatically new. There was coverage on the difficulties at the UK end in achieving proposed SSN AUKUS delivery dates. Every Admiral interviewed said to expect delay. One (retired Admiral Rickets?) said to have a plan B.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-16/aukus-risks-trump-review-defence-four-corners/105412740
I could list the SA based Companies which banked with The Bank of Adelaide Limited ahead of the FCA purchase of land on the (then) outskirts of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane bringing that bank down – along with the national economic circumstances of the late 1970’s leading into 1980
It made an impressive list, all banking with The Bank of Adelaide Ltd.
Hills Industries and SANTOS remain
SANTOS resulted in the unlikely forces of Bonython AND Dunstan to force Bond off the SANTOS Registry
Socrates at 10.57 pm
It was Mr Sea Lord West, the big toff, who said better get a plan B.
The Aus Navy chief, Mr Hammond, then said they are already at plan D.
It was a good program for the main audience, which is not submarine buffs such as yourself.
The key comments were particularly from Australians, not the foreigners, whose points were uncontroversial.
The former submarine squadron chief Mr Briggs was damning in simple language, as was the engineer.
The size of the fictional AUKUS model is clearly overblown. Metaphorically it brought to my mind the stupidity of the huge late medieval Swedish Vasa ship (now in a museum in Stockholm) that sank on its first voyage.
Briggs’ comment about the big subs being inappropriate in shallow waters was the closest comment to any assessment of strategic purpose.
In that sense the program was very narrowly focused, ignoring the basic questions from Gareth Evans that have never been answered. But in the narrow context of the Pentagon review, it was a worthwhile program.
Dr Doolittle
Thanks and yes I appreciate the program is aimed at a general audience. In that sense they conveyed reasonably some (not all) of the many risks about AUKUS.
Not only were the subs sizes in their model not to scale (pro-rating the length to tonnage) but the sub silhouette they used was the new Russian SSBN Putin is building 🙂 (Borei Class).
At the end it is sobering to realise that all the people saying “trust us” on AUKUS are politicians and naval officers whose job it is to deliver AUKUS. Whereas all the people criticising AUKUS were former naval officers and engineers who have built subs before. Belief in AUKUS is a matter of faith not knowledge.
Huzzah, finished putting up the pendulum for the 1990 Federal Election tonight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_1990_Australian_federal_election
GOP senator slammed for disgusting tweets about Minnesota shooting
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/16/2328334/-GOP-senator-slammed-for-disgusting-tweets-about-Minnesota-shooting?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web
“Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee is facing a torrent of criticism after he sent a disturbing tweet about the Minnesota gunman who murdered Democratic state former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, and shot Democratic state Sen. John Hoffman, and his wife, Yvette.
On Sunday, as law enforcement officers were searching for the alleged murderer Vance Boelter, Lee tweeted an image of Boelter in the rubber mask he wore when he opened fire on the lawmakers. In text alongside the disturbing image, Lee wrote, “Nightmare on Waltz Street”—a misspelled reference to Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, who was also on a list of Democratic officials Boelter wanted to kill.”
Alleged Minnesota assassin was Trump supporter who echoed GOP views
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/16/2328344/-Alleged-Minnesota-assassin-was-Trump-supporter-who-echoed-GOP-views?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web
“The Associated Press spoke to his friends and former colleagues, and according to them Boelter was a supporter of Trump who attended Trump campaign rallies. Boelter also allegedly opposed abortion. According to law enforcement sources who spoke to AP and CNN, there was a list of health care officials and abortion rights advocates—including leaders of Planned Parenthood, a frequent target of Republican rhetoric—found in an SUV that belonged to Boelter that was parked near the home where the Hortman shooting took place.”
New thread.