The potential for a Liberal legal challenge to the result in Bradfield remains the only complication to a resolution of the federal election, with a 40-day period for the lodgement of such a challenge to commence when the Australian Electoral Commission returns the writs, which it must do by July 9. The impasse also stands in the way of a final resolution of the national two-party preferred result, with the AEC relating it is loath to disturb the ballot papers as required to complete its Labor-versus-Liberal count for the seat. The current progress result recorded for the seat on the AEC site is stuck at an early stage accounts for only about 10% of the total, and is evidently dominated by strong areas for the Liberals. With full results available for all other seats, the final result looks likely to land at 55.2-44.8 to Labor.
We remain in something of a limbo on the federal polling front. Roy Morgan had the first voting intention poll of the term last week, but has apparently not resumed its normal weekly schedule. Peter Lewis of Essential Research says his agency’s normally fortnightly poll is “on a post-election sabbatical/hiatus for a few months”. Experience suggests Newspoll in The Australian may be another month away, and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers perhaps another month more.
Never fear though, for a snap Tasmanian election may shortly be upon us, just 14 months after an election at which the Liberals held on to power with the support of a now alienated cross-bench. The state’s Governor currently considering Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s request for a dissolution following last week’s parliamentary no confidence motion. I’ll have a post up on that when the situation becomes clearer, and if an election indeed ensues, will put together a guide for it as fast as humanly possible and set to work on live results. Local hero Kevin Bonham relates that the window for such an election is in the four weeks between July 19 and August 9.
William. It’s nice to think that the Tasmanian political situation might provide some harmless entertainment for your good self and other PBers over the next few weeks.
I strongly suspect that otherwise it isn’t going to do anybody any good whatsoever.
PS. I must reluctantly join my voice to those calling for a change to the voting system down here. The “March Hare System”, as the late Mungo MacCallum used to call it.
It’s very fair to voters in terms of ensuring their votes have the effect they want them to have, but it no longer produces workable governments.
Morning all. Some good news before I go to do some exercise.
Australia has joined four nations in sanctioning two Israeli politicians, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, over their statements on Gaza. Israel has gone much too far with the aid (and food) blockade.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-11/australia-to-sanction-two-israeli-ministers/105401564
And bad news – China has mobilised a large naval exercise with its two carrier task forces sailing around Taiwan. This probably means nothing but is also how many defense analysts predict a real takeover event would start: sail out as an exercise and if there is no response, stay for an actual blockade or attack.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-10/japan-says-chinese-military-activity-expanding-in-pacific/105401494
Australia will impose sanctions on two Israeli cabinet ministers over their comments on Gaza as part of a joint action with the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Norway.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will face travel bans and have their assets frozen, in a move condemned by Israel as “outrageous”.
In a joint statement with other foreign ministers early Wednesday morning, Penny Wong said the two men would be black-listed for “for inciting violence against Palestinians in the West Bank”.
“Settler violence is incited by extremist rhetoric which calls for Palestinians to be driven from their homes, encourages violence and human rights abuses and fundamentally rejects the two-state solution,” she said.
“We are steadfastly committed to the two-state solution which is the only way to guarantee security and dignity for Israelis and Palestinians and ensure long term stability in the region, but it is imperilled by extremist settler violence and settlement expansion.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-11/australia-to-sanction-two-israeli-ministers/105401564
Vale.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/john-shakespeare-s-illustrations-captured-the-vibe-here-s-a-handful-of-the-20-000-he-filed/ar-AA1GphCB?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ASTS&cvid=0ebd5b8f6a794a70a0b1abecf78f86c6&ei=25
World News & Politics Patrol:
US to cut military aid to Ukraine, Hegseth says: https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-cut-military-aid-to-ukraine-hegseth-says/
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has questioned Russia’s ability to attack NATO countries, as it is not “even capable of defeating Ukraine,” he said in an interview with French TV channel LCI on June 8: https://kyivindependent.com/not-even-capable-of-defeating-ukraine-orban-questions-russias-ability-to-attack-nato/
Russia to help North Korea establish production of Shahed drones – Ukraine’s intelligence chief: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/06/10/7516452/
Russian intelligence document calls China ‘the enemy’, leak exposes Moscow’s deep fear: https://www.livemint.com/news/world/russian-intelligence-document-calls-china-the-enemy-leak-exposes-moscow-s-deep-fear-11749408144712.html
Russia could send “little green men” to test NATO’s resolve, German intelligence boss warns: https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-plans-test-natos-resolve-german-intelligence-chief-warns-2025-06-09/
Europe heaps harsh sanctions on Russia, saying ‘strength is the only language’ Moscow understands: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/10/world/europe-new-sanctions-russia-strength-intl
Trump’s National Guard Troops Are ‘Sitting Unused Without Orders’ After Being Deployed for LA Protests, Gavin Newsom Reveals: https://www.latintimes.com/trumps-national-guard-troops-are-sitting-unused-without-orders-after-being-deployed-la-584691
Troops deployed to LA have nowhere to sleep and lack supplies: Newsom: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/10/national-guard-troops-los-angeles-sleeping-floor-newsom-trump
Trump threatens protesters who rain on his military parade Saturday ‘will be met with very big force’: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-birthday-military-parade-protest-threat-b2767425.html
CNN Reporter Detained by LA Riot Police Live on Air: https://www.newsweek.com/cnn-reporter-detained-la-riot-police-live-air-2083236
ICE Invaded Child’s Birthday Party Claiming It Was a Gang Meeting: https://newrepublic.com/post/196138/ice-child-birthday-party-gang-meeting-tren-de-aragua
Trump Mocked After Claiming Flights From LA to San Francisco Cost $2: This Is ‘Why Trump Airlines Failed’: https://www.latintimes.com/trump-mocked-after-claiming-flights-la-san-francisco-cost-2-this-why-trump-airlines-failed-584681
After Trump’s shocking move, health expert calls GOP ‘a fascist death cult. God help us’: https://www.nj.com/politics/2025/06/after-trumps-shocking-move-health-expert-calls-gop-a-fascist-death-cult-god-help-us.html
Trump Threatens to Crush Violent Protests in Every State: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-warns-he-will-crush-violent-protests-in-every-state/
Hegseth Admits He Doesn’t Know What Authority Trump Is Using To Deploy Troops: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hegseth-troops-deploy-congress_n_6848569de4b07d60ea752c07
California governor asks court to block Trump administration from using troops in immigration raids: https://apnews.com/article/los-angeles-protests-ice-national-guard-9dfd2d025070bb6060d908dd3cf9b1f0
Plaudits to the Socceroos for yet again qualifying for the World Cup final after a tough 2-1 victory over in Jeddah. And even greater plaudits to their coach.
As a player, Tony Popovic always came across as a canny strategist, and he flourished as a coach in the A-League. The powers that be didn’t seem to be totally convinced that he was up to coaching the Socceroos, but when Graham Arnold resigned suddenly last year they didn’t have a lot of immediately available replacements other than Popovic.
And how well has he gone? Particularly as a number of high quality players have missed most of the qualifying campaign through injury. He’s probably had the misfortune to coach the lowest quality Australian team of the last three decades, but he’s taken them to a draw and a victory against both Japan and Saudi Arabia.
Well done sir!
#weatheronPB
Cold air lies in wait.
And just when you’re used to it,
it blows past your guard.
The “plan” to build new landing craft for the army in WA is facing delays of up to two years. Plans to upgrade the shipyard before ship construction can start are still not complete. Farcical.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-11/uncertainty-and-delays-loom-over-crucial-west-australian-naval-s/105401570
If Marles ever gets a chance to run a Labor election campaign the way he runs Defense, Labor is doomed.
OTOH if the plan is to save money by not doing budgeted projects, Marles is a genius.
Australia have done very well to qualify for the World cup, but don’t get your hopes up for much progress in the tournament proper. There is not a single world class player in the squad. Scoring goals will be the main problem. The victory against Japan was no great achievement really, as they only started one regular player in that match. The rest were all left on the bench.
Reminder about the Sydney election celebration. So far I have RSVPs from:
C@t +1
Fess
King O’Malley
Andrew_E
TPOF
Upnorth
Meher Baba
D&M
Special surprise guest
Please comment if you are coming and if you are bringing a +1. I’ll gather RSVPs tonight.
‘Socrates says:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 7:30 am
The “plan” to build new landing craft for the army in WA is facing delays of up to two years. Plans to upgrade the shipyard before ship construction can start are still not complete. Farcical.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-11/uncertainty-and-delays-loom-over-crucial-west-australian-naval-s/105401570
If Marles ever gets a chance to run a Labor election campaign the way he runs Defense, Labor is doomed.
OTOH if the plan is to save money by not doing budgeted projects, Marles is a genius.’
======================
A shambles, IMO.
It reads a bit as if there are competing prime contractors.
Mind you, the ‘source’ sounds a bit as they may well have an axe to grind as well.
clem attlee: “Australia have done very well to qualify for the World cup, but don’t get your hopes up for much progress in the tournament proper. There is not a single world class player in the squad.”
——————————————————————————-
Indeed there weren’t any this morning. But we have some better players who were out with injury. And the history of the World Cup demonstrates that strong teamwork and sound tactics can often take second string nations a lot further in the competition than a bunch of stars. So we might surprise a few people in the finals.
——————————————————————————-
“The victory against Japan was no great achievement really, as they only started one regular player in that match. The rest were all left on the bench.”
——————————————————————————-
True, but even the Japanese second XI was still more highly-rated than the bunch of players we rolled out to play in Perth.
After having produced quite a few A-grade players in the 1990s and 2000s, which enabled us to field some strong national sides albeit with gaps in some key areas, we now seem to have entered an era in which the A-League helps us to produce a seemingly endless stream of reasonable quality players, but few if any stars. I think this is actually a good development in the long run: a sign that our overall standard is rising over time.
”Australia has joined four nations in sanctioning two Israeli politicians, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, over their statements on Gaza. Israel has gone much too far with the aid (and food) blockade.”
This is how we should do it if we wish to take action or make statements on matters that are not within our usual sphere of concern or influence, i.e. join with a group of like-minded allies. For example, this is what we should have done when the previous Prime Minister was calling for investigation into the origin of COVID, including the lab leak theory, assuming of course that this was more than a stunt for domestic consumption. There is more strength in numbers, also safety should the target retaliate.
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 7:39 am
Reminder about the Sydney election celebration. So far I have RSVPs from:
Special surprise guest,
So you twisted Peter Dutton’s arm ?
Goll
More likely Madam Turpentine, The Minister for Caged Hair…Bronny!
Confessions says:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 7:39 am
Good morning and I am in!
Thanks
[‘Greens defector Dorinda Cox says her former party enabled a “toxic” culture and failed to address serious concerns she raised.
Senator Cox also denied ever bullying others despite a number of complaints from former staff that were reported last year.
What’s next?
The senator says she is eager to focus on getting tangible outcomes for First Nations people.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-11/dorinda-cox-accuses-greens-of-racism/105400850
And bad news – China has mobilised a large naval exercise with its two carrier task forces sailing around Taiwan. This probably means nothing but is also how many defense analysts predict a real takeover event would start
—————————————
Never fear. Trump will peacefully resolve it on day 1. I’m thinking he’ll….. put a 1000% tariff on…. Taiwan? and…..invade Bhutan?
You liberal commies won’t see the brilliance in it.
Well I have a branch meeting this week, once I get my instructions I will disseminate them to you so you can implement them.
I know that Tas Labor expected the Libs to ask for an election yesterday, that the Gov declined so that some parliamentary due diligence could be undertaken perhaps caught them out, but it wasn’t the worst outcome.
Last week the BLT comments were leaning towards Winter the wrecker. This week the BLTs have moved towards Rockcliff the arrogant. Winter was angling for a change in Premier, an election was perhaps an added bonus. Say what you will about Rockcliff’s incompetent government and the rubbish deals he did with the AFL the voters like him 9or at least dont hate him). If Labor could have forced a spill in leadership the other options for the Libs are truly terrible. Labor would probably have had a better result at an election with someone else in charge of the Libs (see Felix’s ‘shock leaked texts’ (a lib with form on making things up)).
That might still happen if Rockcliff digs in, I dont think there’s anyone in the party room that has the numbers to directly challenge, but a tap on the shoulder may occur then there’ll be an open ballot. I reckon they are probably thinking damn the torpedoes Rockcliff has the best chance of saving the furniture.
I dont expect Winter to blink and request a government with the Greens, his calculations would be that any election will improve on the 10 seats Labor currently has, then any negotiations can occur from a position of strength.
[‘Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has thrown the gloves down again, boldly warning the world that Donald Trump risks sending America into a new era of authoritarianism.
Speaking on ABC News on Tuesday afternoon, Mr Turnbull cautioned Australia and its allies to prepare for a more volatile international order, urging democratic nations to become less dependent on an increasingly unpredictable United States under the billionaire commander-in-chief.
Mr Turnbull expanded on a recent essay he published in Foreign Affairs, arguing that “those countries that share the values for which the United States once stood, but currently does not, should band together to preserve what worked best in the order Trump is intent on burying.”
Following Mr Trump’s inauguration, Mr Turnbull has spent much of 2025 calling for strategic independence among Western democracies and a renewed commitment to multilateralism, free trade and stability.
He said Mr Trump’s “erratic” leadership has undermined trust in America’s role as a global stabiliser.
Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned Australia and its allies to prepare for a more volatile international order.
He also touched on the escalating situation in Los Angeles, where federal authorities have deployed marines in response to anti-ICE protests and arrests of undocumented immigrants.
“You can understand Governor Newsom feeling that Trump is trying to provoke a greater crisis there,” Mr Turnbull said. “These are dangerous times in America … There are many people in America now – serious people – who are concerned that America is slipping into a realm of authoritarianism … almost of tyranny. And that should be very concerning for us.”
On the flip side, Mr Trump feels emboldened by his election win, which he views as a “mandate” to enact policies he believes will strengthen the US from within. Everything from cutting foreign aid to damaging relationships with long-held partners is on the table for the Republican, who Mr Turnbull believes will flip-flop on just about any deal when he sees fit.’] – news.com
But don’t sanction the Prime Minister with the International Criminal Court arrest warrant, who appointed these individuals as finance minister and security minister.
The head of the QLD Police Union claims the cop who shot a woman in the abdomen showed compassion.
I went to school with the son of Pauline Hanson’s partner. Should I contact him to convince his stepmum to come to PollBludger’s election party? They are in Port Stephens so not far.
Mavissays:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 8:12 am
Senator Cox also denied ever bullying others despite a number of complaints from former staff that were reported last year.
_____________________
Have lost track. Was it 20 or 30 complaints ?
Socrates says:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 6:22 am
“Morning all. Some good news before I go to do some exercise.
Australia has joined four nations in sanctioning two Israeli politicians, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, over their statements on Gaza. Israel has gone much too far with the aid (and food) blockade.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-11/australia-to-sanction-two-israeli-ministers/105401564”
At least we are making a statement and breaking ranks with the US, who seem to believe Israel can do no wrong and 50,000+ deaths and mass starvation is just “collateral damage”.
Netanyahu next.
Vance makes a veiled threat to deport an undocumented immigrant who had the temerity to question his dress sense:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-derek-guy-deport-twitter-b2766950.html
Another incel terrorist, no doubt radicalised online by US social media websites,
causing disgust and misery everywhere they roam, just like our resident incel in here.
Oh, and surprise, surprise they hate woman. We need intense deradicalisation programs
for these recalcitrants stat.
“Austria reels from ‘national tragedy’ after gunman kills 10 at former school
Chancellor says nation’s deadliest postwar mass shooting is a ‘dark day in the history of our country’”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/10/students-killed-in-school-shooting-in-austria-graz
goll: “Special surprise guest,
So you twisted Peter Dutton’s arm ?”
——————————————————————————
Fess will be annoyed at me for letting the cat (as it were) out of the bag.
It’s Harold Holt, who has been thawed out of cryogenic storage in Tibet.
Milo Tully: “Another incel terrorist, no doubt radicalised online by US social media websites,
causing disgust and misery everywhere they roam, just like our resident incel in here. Oh, and surprise, surprise they hate woman. We need intense deradicalisation programs for these recalcitrants stat.”
—————————————————————————–
I have to say that I must have missed the media reports that explain the shooter’s motivations and discuss their sex life.
I think it’s always a good idea to wait to see what the authorities have to say about these things.
Taylormade:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 8:57 am
[‘Have lost track. Was it 20 or 30 complaints ?’]
I’m not sure, as the Greens have a policy to keep matters like these allegations in-house. It comes as no surprise that the two defectors are First Nations women, with Cox claiming she was subjected to, among other things, racism by her former party – this from an outfit that claims purity of thought & actions. If they don’t lift their game under Waters, they could go the way of the Democrats.
Cartoons
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Dionne Gain
Joe Benke
Pat Hudson
Le Leivre
An early start to the rioting season in Northern Ireland this year.
Where are the National Guard?
https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2025/0610/1517590-psni-disorder/
Mavis: “I’m not sure, as the Greens have a policy to keep matters like these allegations in-house. It comes as no surprise that the two defectors are First Nations women, with Cox claiming she was subjected to, among other things, racism by her former party – this from an outfit that claims purity of thought & actions. If they don’t lift their game under Waters, they could go the way of the Democrats.”
——————————————————————————
Perhaps you’re not personally guilty of this, but I note that several posters have now jumped on the bandwagon of “the Greens are racist/sexist towards Indigenous women”, which is rather at odds with what they have had to say about Lidia Thorpe in the recent past.
OC: “An early start to the rioting season in Northern Ireland this year.”
——————————————————————————
Interesting to read in the report that racism (against Muslims?) was behind the violence, rather than sectarianism. Perhaps the growing anti-migrant sentiment in the Republic is spreading north.
Milo Tully
Do you get a sense of satisfaction from politicising the Austrian tragedy?
MB
It’s actually Roma (although other reports say “Romanian speakers” – which is quite different) and follows the arrest of two boys for attempted rape.
What isn’t in dispute is they keep quitting the greens.
Taylormadesays:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 8:57 am
Mavissays:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 8:12 am
[Senator Cox also denied ever bullying others despite a number of complaints from former staff that were reported last year.]
_____________________
[Have lost track. Was it 20 or 30 complaints]
Interestingly no adjudication regarding the complaints have been made public.
I wish I was at Lords…. sigh…..
MB
I won’t repeat my lengthy analysis of the Payman, Price, Thorpe and Cox defections.
The Greens are obviously having difficulty in ‘integrating’ the views and activities of the Blak Greens. As for toxic culture, I posted the other day about being friends with three Greens ex staffers. All of them quit because of what they told me was a toxic culture. Cox may well have a point.
meher baba:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 9:33 am
[‘Perhaps you’re not personally guilty of this, but I note that several posters have now jumped on the bandwagon of “the Greens are racist/sexist towards Indigenous women”, which is rather at odds with what they have had to say about Lidia Thorpe in the recent past.’]
I rarely criticise the Greens. I do believe, however, that under Bandt, they became toxic.
The scenes of Trump delivering his rousing hate speech in front of the 82nd Airborne at Fort Bragg is disturbing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cmk3UV-MA4
meher baba says:
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 9:33 am
Mavis: “I’m not sure, as the Greens have a policy to keep matters like these allegations in-house. It comes as no surprise that the two defectors are First Nations women, with Cox claiming she was subjected to, among other things, racism by her former party – this from an outfit that claims purity of thought & actions. If they don’t lift their game under Waters, they could go the way of the Democrats.”
——————————————————————————
Perhaps you’re not personally guilty of this, but I note that several posters have now jumped on the bandwagon of “the Greens are racist/sexist towards Indigenous women”, which is rather at odds with what they have had to say about Lidia Thorpe in the recent past.
____________________
Their policies indicate they are far from being a racist/sexist party.
Hope Senator Cox can get back to the business of the senate now.
@Meher Baba
I don’t think it’s fair to blame Hare Clark.
ACT uses exactly the same system, almost never gives a single party a majority, and has enjoyed many successful minority and coalition governments without instability and chaos.
I’d suggest the cause its that Tasmania has around 100,000 university educated people (many of whom are retired) and 300+ local and state politicians, while the ACT has 25 politicians from 120,000 university educated people.
The chaos in this case is caused by the Liberals being unable to govern well, and Labor being unwilling to even try. Neither of those problems would go away if you abolish Hare Clarke
Meher Baba,
What electoral system do you suggest for the Tasmanian Lower House?
I note the sanctions on the Israeli ministers are based on the illegal settlements. Nothing about what is happening in Gaza.
I also note that Labor waited until after the election to take this step. Their priority was/is very transparent.
Either the TAS Libs replace Rockliff and continue to govern, or they support an Independent as Premier until the next election and continue to govern.
Winters conduct is unbecoming of a party leader. He has debased the system.
The Democrats disappeared because they were trying to occupy the space between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party, a space that was already being successfully occupied by the Labor Party.