Mid-week miscellany: federal poll drought edition (open thread)

Some observations on when regular federal polling might be expected to resume, and the Tasmanian state election that could potentially give us something to chew on in the meantime.

The potential for a Liberal legal challenge to the result in Bradfield remains the only complication to a resolution of the federal election, with a 40-day period for the lodgement of such a challenge to commence when the Australian Electoral Commission returns the writs, which it must do by July 9. The impasse also stands in the way of a final resolution of the national two-party preferred result, with the AEC relating it is loath to disturb the ballot papers as required to complete its Labor-versus-Liberal count for the seat. The current progress result recorded for the seat on the AEC site is stuck at an early stage accounts for only about 10% of the total, and is evidently dominated by strong areas for the Liberals. With full results available for all other seats, the final result looks likely to land at 55.2-44.8 to Labor.

We remain in something of a limbo on the federal polling front. Roy Morgan had the first voting intention poll of the term last week, but has apparently not resumed its normal weekly schedule. Peter Lewis of Essential Research says his agency’s normally fortnightly poll is “on a post-election sabbatical/hiatus for a few months”. Experience suggests Newspoll in The Australian may be another month away, and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers perhaps another month more.

Never fear though, for a snap Tasmanian election may shortly be upon us, just 14 months after an election at which the Liberals held on to power with the support of a now alienated cross-bench. The state’s Governor currently considering Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s request for a dissolution following last week’s parliamentary no confidence motion. I’ll have a post up on that when the situation becomes clearer, and if an election indeed ensues, will put together a guide for it as fast as humanly possible and set to work on live results. Local hero Kevin Bonham relates that the window for such an election is in the four weeks between July 19 and August 9.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,596 thoughts on “Mid-week miscellany: federal poll drought edition (open thread)”

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  1. Mavissays:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 8:25 am

    ‘Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has thrown the gloves down again, boldly warning the world that Donald Trump risks sending America into a new era of authoritarianism.

    Speaking on ABC News on Tuesday afternoon, Mr Turnbull cautioned Australia and its allies to prepare for a more volatile international order, urging democratic nations to become less dependent on an increasingly unpredictable United States under the billionaire commander-in-chief.

    Mr Turnbull expanded on a recent essay he published in Foreign Affairs, arguing that “those countries that share the values for which the United States once stood, but currently does not, should band together to preserve what worked best in the order Trump is intent on burying.”

    Following Mr Trump’s inauguration, Mr Turnbull has spent much of 2025 calling for strategic independence among Western democracies and a renewed commitment to multilateralism, free trade and stability.

    He said Mr Trump’s “erratic” leadership has undermined trust in America’s role as a global stabiliser.

    Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned Australia and its allies to prepare for a more volatile international order.

    He also touched on the escalating situation in Los Angeles, where federal authorities have deployed marines in response to anti-ICE protests and arrests of undocumented immigrants.

    “You can understand Governor Newsom feeling that Trump is trying to provoke a greater crisis there,” Mr Turnbull said. “These are dangerous times in America … There are many people in America now – serious people – who are concerned that America is slipping into a realm of authoritarianism … almost of tyranny. And that should be very concerning for us.”

    On the flip side, Mr Trump feels emboldened by his election win, which he views as a “mandate” to enact policies he believes will strengthen the US from within. Everything from cutting foreign aid to damaging relationships with long-held partners is on the table for the Republican, who Mr Turnbull believes will flip-flop on just about any deal when he sees fit.’

    – news.com

    But what about Xi says one of our regular PBers.
    They are circling Taiwan, he says. The Chinese economy is in dire straits, he says. Xi is monster, he says.
    True, says me.
    But America is supposed to be the beacon on the hill. America is supposed to be “best democracy” and Xi is a dictator. As Turnbull argued ” that “those countries that share the values for which the United States once stood, but currently does not, should band together to preserve what worked best in the order Trump is intent on burying.”
    That is reason there is no whataboutism in this case.

  2. OC: “MB It’s actually Roma (although other reports say “Romanian speakers” – which is quite different) and follows the arrest of two boys for attempted rape.”

    I suspect the media used the term “Romanian speaker” in an attempt to distinguish the culprits from the travellers of Ireland and Scotland who were formerly known as “tinkers”: some of whom have started referring to themselves as “Roma” in recent years. But, while Roma from the Balkans are mostly descended from the people of the sub-continent, genetic research has shown that the travellers of Ireland and Scotland are mostly of Celtic ancestry.

  3. Boerwar (regarding the Perth shipyard delay)

    “ It reads a bit as if there are competing prime contractors.

    Mind you, the ‘source’ sounds a bit as they may well have an axe to grind as well.”
    ===============================================
    Not really. Lots of sources in industry have been warning that this plan to move naval shipbuilding to Perth was risky for years. Hence the “I told you so” now.

    Labor and Liberal are both guilty on this one. Both have moved defence spending from state to state as political pressures demand. For things that need long setup time, like shipbuilding, this is disastrously inefficient, but it keeps happening.

    In engineering and construction terms there was never a good reason to move the Arafura OPV build from ASC Adelaide to Perth. Adelaide had an existing new shipyard and trained workforce. So of course they lost the work. Thanks Scomo.

    Perth had two small civilian shipbuilding firms that had never built warships. The Henderson shipyard area was divided between three owners and no one building shed was big enough to build frigates. So of course they got the Sea 3000 contract. Thanks Marlesy.

    I have never seen a convincing plan from Defense of how they were going to develop Henderson in a way that consolidated ownership, resulted in suitable sized assembly sheds, and still allowed Austal to complete their existing contracts without disruption. Then add an SSN maintenance dock for AUKUS 😐

    Even if all that is worked out, the basic idea of transferring Federally funded (ship) building work to WA was a dumb one. No state has a bigger shortage of construction workers than WA. Nowhere else are wages higher. Shifting work there merely adds inflation to the WA building industry.

    Meanwhile recruiting and training new shipbuilding workers in ASC is advancing at a snail’s pace. Why would a bright 20 year old engineering student choose to study a complex specialty in naval architecture or nuclear engineering when there is no scheduled work to begin for 10 years and you can make more money in mining?

    Defense acquisition was a basket case before Marles took office. It still is.

  4. North America

    Clay Jones

    Mike Lucovich

    Daniel Medina

    Monte Wolverton

    Bill Bramhall

    de Adder

    Clay Bennett

    The New Yorker by Smit

  5. The Dems disappeared because they supported the introduction of the GST. If the Greens ever get a chance to make the ADF disappear and pursue their various plans to incite capital flight and capital strike they would go the same way as the Dems.

  6. Trump’s actions in deporting illegal immigrants are OTT. But they are popular. The message from Hungary to Holland through to the US is abundantly clear: we decide who comes to our country. The UK is next. If Starmer does not stop the boats Farage will do him like a dinner.

    The Left needs to get its head around this one because it is being used as a fulcrum to destroy much, if not most, of what is good about most countries.

  7. A belated thank you to the PollBludgers who contributed feedback to my post on the GRN PV% HoR-Senate seat differentials in the previous thread. If I come up with anything new and concrete on this front, I’ll let you know via this forum.

  8. @Boerwar – you’re not even close to correct on this one. Trump’s actions are far from popular.

    “There is strong support for due process in deportation proceedings. Sixty-three percent believe noncitizens should be guaranteed a court hearing or other legal protection. An overwhelming 79 percent say it would be unacceptable for a U.S. resident to be mistakenly deported under Trump’s program.”

    Trump’s actions have seen multiple US residents mistakenly deported due to lack of due process.

    https://www.newsweek.com/polls-ice-deportations-los-angeles-2083348

  9. MB
    Accuracy in TV productions.
    In the cable hit “Peaky Blinders” the “gypsy” Birmingham crime family speak very bad Romanian amongst themselves. This was because the show didn’t have a language coach and someone confused Romanian with Roma. The actors were left to phonate the computer translated script.

    However, as the family are Irish and as it’s set in the 1920s they are Travellers (I think “tinker” and “pikey” have now been outlawed) and they should have spoken Cant or Shelta which is a Gaelic creole.

  10. The thing about the protests, which I don’t understand and like is holding of Mexican flags by protestors. If the “undocumented’ people came to US to become US citizens, why show Mexican flags?

    MSNBC host/reporter are saying that several hundred thousand and upto 1 million ‘undocumented’ people live in California, work and ‘pay taxes?’. I don’t understand that

  11. Lol Albo, must have woken up grumpy this morning:

    From the Guardian live:

    “The prime minister also responded to US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s condemnation of the sanctions: “I think those responses are predictable, frankly””

    And Wong’s joint statement:

    https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/joint-statement-foreign-ministers-australia-canada-new-zealand-norway-and-united-kingdom-measures-targeting-itamar-ben-gvir-and-bezalel-smotrich

    Will be an interesting chat with Trump at G7 (if it happens)

  12. Rex: “Either the TAS Libs replace Rockliff and continue to govern, or they support an Independent as Premier until the next election and continue to govern.
    Winters conduct is unbecoming of a party leader. He has debased the system.”
    ——————————————————————————
    I’m no great fan of Winter (although personally I’ve always found him pleasant and helpful). But this is a bit harsh.

    A minority government is always going to be vulnerable to a motion of no-confidence. Oppositions should not be moving them willy nilly, but it’s surely reasonable practice to test the waters from time to time: particularly when there is a pretty significant scandal in terms of the major stuff-up with the replacement vessels for the Spirit of Tasmania service.

    I would agree that the ongoing refusal of Labor to consider forming a coalition with the Greens is a problem and is likely to continue to be so. This refusal was initially based on a negative assessment of the Labor-Green alliance from 2010 to 2014, which many in the Labor Party believe was responsible for its loss in the 2014 election. I think this is wrong, in that there was clearly a strong “time for a change” attitude on the part of voters, combined with a long-term downward trend in support for Labor which has clearly continued since 2014, notwithstanding the ever-growing hostility that party has demonstrated towards the Greens.

    But what is Winter to do about this? It is possible that, in different circumstances, he might have considered making overtures towards the Greens. Woodruff is a pretty reasonable person, and I think something might have been worked out. But Albo’s warm embrace of the salmon farming industry and its supporters in the environmentally-unfriendly left faction of the Tasmanian ALP leaves Winter unable to move. And I don’t think that’s really his fault.

    As things stand, an election right now, in the warm afterglow of the party’s crushing Federal victory, is probably Winter’s best chance of ever becoming Premier. So of course he’s going to take it.

    A Borgen-like scenario with an independent as Premier certainly isn’t going to happen. Garland and O’Byrne are damaged goods, and I think Labor would sooner support Abetz than Johnston, and the Libs would sooner support just about anyone. (In short, she’s not well-liked.)

    And you surely aren’t proposing that any of the former JLN work experience politicians would make a good Premier?

  13. MB
    There are reports that families in Ballymena who do not have very pale skin, freckles and reddish hair are putting a flag on their door to identify their nationality and redirect the rioters towards the Roma. (For some reason the town has a large Filipino community)

  14. ‘Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:25 am

    The thing about the protests, which I don’t understand and like is holding of Mexican flags by protestors. If the “undocumented’ people came to US to become US citizens, why show Mexican flags?

    MSNBC host/reporter are saying that several hundred thousand and upto 1 million ‘undocumented’ people live in California, work and ‘pay taxes?’. I don’t understand that’
    ===============================
    There are various ways of being undocumented but the main one is sneaking across the border and then living and working in the US. What evolved was a de facto modus operandi. Undocumented peeps could work and pay tax but without the rights of citizens. I understand that ICE either has, or would like to gain, access to tax records.

  15. UK and EU Cartoons

    Tjeerd Royaards

    Banx #ZiaYusef

    Emmerson

    Nick Anderson

    Chapatte

    Seamus Jennings

    Patrick Blower #EdMiliband @GreatBritishEnergy

    Rebecca Hendin

    Guy Venables

    Tom Gauld

    Private Eye

    Jonsey

    Shank

    Mike Seddon

    Kipper Williams

    Nick Newman

  16. Confessions @ #12 Wednesday, June 11th, 2025 – 7:39 am

    Reminder about the Sydney election celebration.
    Please comment if you are coming and if you are bringing a +1. I’ll gather RSVPs tonight.

    I have the full-bore Biden ailment, so send apologies, as I would not really be able to join in. Have had the bore out operation, plus supra-pubic catheter (SPC) fitted, with spigot (an amazing thing). On testosterone clobbering medication, which costs the PBS a fortune. Seems to be working, somewhat. Have fun. Go well.

  17. @Boerwar

    No, it’s centre right people like you that don’t get it.

    People like Trump and Farage succeed because the left party abandoned their principles and abandoned the voters. The party machinery nominates candidates like Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden and then is surprised when the establishment candidate loses to a populist.

  18. The party machinery nominates candidates like Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden and then is surprised when the establishment candidate loses to a populist.

    Are you working on the assumption that the 2020 U.S. Presidential election was stolen?

  19. OC: “Accuracy in TV productions.
    In the cable hit “Peaky Blinders” the “gypsy” Birmingham crime family speak very bad Romanian amongst themselves. This was because the show didn’t have a language coach and someone confused Romanian with Roma. The actors were left to phonate the computer translated script.

    However, as the family are Irish and as it’s set in the 1920s they are Travellers (I think “tinker” and “pikey” have now been outlawed) and they should have spoken Cant or Shelta which is a Gaelic creole.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    Of course, the Roma who come from Romania – which I believe has the second largest population of Roma people after Bulgaria – will speak Romanian as well as Roma. So the two young men who have been arrested are concievably fluent in Romanian.

    Further to my previous post, I suspect that the Peaky Blinders business has something behind it more than stupidity on the part of its production team. You are correct that the term “tinkers” seems to have been outlawed, and even “Irish Travellers” looked down upon (which is reasonable, given that there were always such travellers in Scotland and some parts of England as well as in Ireland). And, consequently, there has been a bit of a trend among some of these folk to start referring to themselves as “Roma.” Which is unhelpful from an ethnological perspective, but which I guess they are entitled to do as long as there are no objections on the part of the Roma people who ancstry can be traced back to South Asia way back when.

    What’s in a name and all that. While “pikey” was clearly a slur, “tinkers” seemed to me to be reasonable given that this was the work that a lot of them used to perform. But they don’t like it, and I respect that.

  20. I have just now received one from our own Prime Minister Mr Anthony Norman Albanese who has ordered The Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock to deposit $12,000,000,000.00 (yes, 12 billion US dollars) into my bank account.

    Alas, I have not been so lucky, despite tentatively exploring the links supplied by the companion YouTube video setting out the above offer.

    This video shows “David Crowe” of the SMH interviewing “Albo”, who tells us that “the Bank Of Australia” is underwriting the offer. When “Crowe” asks – strangely in a pronounced American accent – how viewers can be sure the offer is genuine, and not just some AI-generated trickery, “Albo” answers – also in an American accent – that he is “the Prime Minister of Australia”, and would be dismissed by order of the King if he was lying. Phew! That’s reassuring!

    YouTube’s AI moderation system can check for copyright breaches on a submitted video while the content creator is uploading it, and can then record a copyright strike if the piece is in violation… all before uploading is completed, and all automatic.

    Yet YouTube seems to be deaf and blind when obvious scams such as the Crowe-Albo “interview” are uploaded and allowed to run (and there are many, many of them floating around on the platform).

    The same goes for the cornucopia of, say, “room heater” ads being run on YouTube at the moment, advertising “devices” (good engineery word that, “devices”) that plug into a wall socket, and can “heat any room in 6.2 minutes”, for 10% of the cost of ordinary room heaters. Like the “room coolers”, “SAS drones”, mil spec “laser flashlights”, Japanese Damascus steel “tungsten knives”, and precision “pressure wash hose nozzles” that have preceded them as once-in-a-lifetime offers, the new flood of YouTube “room heaters” have been designed by “brilliant uni engineering students”, usually called ‘Rob’ or ‘Brad'”, who were expelled when they refused to hand over their design to their professors (who are in cahoots with “The Heater Industry”, or “Australian Special Forces”, or “the Government”, or “the Air-Conditioning Industry” as the case may be).

    The methods employed to make these miracle “devices” work range from our old friend “nanotechnology”, to “previously undiscovered applications of Bernoulli’s Principle”, to “Quantum AI”.

    There’s a mug born every minute, so somebody must be purchasing this junk, which leads to the question of why obvious scams like the above are not censored directly by YouTube, or why YouTube is not legally sanctioned for running them.

    I’ve heard that Trump has threated countries that seek to apply local rules to American tech giants with punishing tariffs. Perhaps Albo should discuss this with The Sun King when he meets with him at the G7 in the near future?

  21. OC

    However, as the family are Irish and as it’s set in the 1920s they are Travellers (I think “tinker” and “pikey” have now been outlawed) and they should have spoken Cant or Shelta which is a Gaelic creole.

    Thanks for that clarification. I presume it was one of these creoles that the travellers were speaking in one of the episodes of Derry Girls?

    And MB, interesting that the Travellers are basically just Celts.

  22. yabba: “I have the full-bore Biden ailment, so send apologies, as I would not really be able to join in. Have had the bore out operation, plus supra-pubic catheter (SPC) fitted, with spigot (an amazing thing). On testosterone clobbering medication, which costs the PBS a fortune. Seems to be working, somewhat. Have fun. Go well.”
    —————————————————————————–
    Oh dear, how what terrible news. On the basis of painful personal experience, I have concluded that catheters in any form are Satan’s work, so I can only speculate with horror at what an SPC might be like.

    Notwithstanding our many past stoushes, I’ll be sorry to miss seeing you on the 27th and I wish you a rapid recovery.

  23. Voice Endeavour says:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:34 am

    People like Trump and Farage succeed because the left party abandoned their principles and abandoned the voters.

    __________________________________________

    Perhaps you would like to expand on which abandoned left party principles converted people to Trump and Farage and how they are connected.


  24. Isle of Rockssays:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 9:54 am
    Meher Baba,

    What electoral system do you suggest for the Tasmanian Lower House?

    Whatever every other Australian state has, compulsory preferential voting system.
    That only provides 98% of the time a stable majority government. If the Greens political party want to govern, then they should get majority seats and govern. Simple as that.

  25. Voice Endeavour says re Tasmania:

    “The chaos in this case is caused by the Liberals being unable to govern well, and Labor being unwilling to even try. Neither of those problems would go away if you abolish Hare Clarke.”
    —————-
    I tend to agree.

    There’s also the very significant problem that the government sector of the Tasmanian economy is a basket case and neither party is prepared to grasp the nettle to fix it. The Libs effed it. Labor says “you effed it, you fix it”. Neither the twain shall meet.

    As Saul Eslake has said to them both, they need to increase government revenue (taxes). They also need to NOT sell the GBEs. And, most importantly, they need to ditch the hideously expensive stadium.

    I don’t think there’s a solution in sight yet.


  26. Mundosays:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:10 am
    You wouldn’t be saying that Rex if Labor was the government with this governments record.
    You’d be calling Rockliff a hero.

    Absolutely and unequivocally true Mundo.

  27. meher baba says:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 5:17 am
    PS. I must reluctantly join my voice to those calling for a change to the voting system down here. The “March Hare System”, as the late Mungo MacCallum used to call it.

    It’s very fair to voters in terms of ensuring their votes have the effect they want them to have, but it no longer produces workable governments.
    ————-
    It would seem to me the problem is not the electoral system but the politicians that were elected.

    If this group of incompetent provincial egos refuse to provide Tasmanians with a workable government then none of them should be eligible to stand in the new election that they have deliberately caused.

    Or is this too “unkind”?

  28. D and M: “And MB, interesting that the Travellers are basically just Celts.”
    ——————————————————————————–
    I should qualify my comment by saying that I believe that many Travellers do not agree with this assessment, and that some suggest that they are ethnically linked to the Roma. But no convincing evidence has been produced for such a suggestion.

    And, just because, here is a song performed by a traveller who became a major celebrity (and forget about his silly pop songs, and think about what he achieved as a highly accomplished star of the West End).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YInWq7qt4PA

  29. Ven: “Whatever every other Australian state has, compulsory preferential voting system.
    That only provides 98% of the time a stable majority government. If the Greens political party want to govern, then they should get majority seats and govern. Simple as that.”
    ——————————————————————————
    Yes, with some regrets for getting rid of what I think is a very fair system, I agree with you.

  30. Thanks for your International round-up as ever HH.

    The Daily show has a little video to illustrate this link, and apparently humour is a powerful tool in fighting authoritarianism!

    Trump’s National Guard Troops Are ‘Sitting Unused Without Orders’ After Being Deployed for LA Protests, Gavin Newsom Reveals: https://www.latintimes.com/trumps-national-guard-troops-are-sitting-unused-without-orders-after-being-deployed-la-584691

    From the Daily Show:

    Ken Burns Presents: A Soldier's Dispatch from the Front Lines in L.A. pic.twitter.com/NVzMDitUh0— The Daily Show (@TheDailyShow) June 10, 2025


  31. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:30 am
    ‘Ven says:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:25 am

    The thing about the protests, which I don’t understand and like is holding of Mexican flags by protestors. If the “undocumented’ people came to US to become US citizens, why show Mexican flags?

    MSNBC host/reporter are saying that several hundred thousand and upto 1 million ‘undocumented’ people live in California, work and ‘pay taxes?’. I don’t understand that’
    ===============================
    There are various ways of being undocumented but the main one is sneaking across the border and then living and working in the US. What evolved was a de facto modus operandi. Undocumented peeps could work and pay tax but without the rights of citizens. I understand that ICE either has, or would like to gain, access to tax records.

    BW
    If a person is a ‘undocumented’ worker, why is that person paying a tax in the first place? An ‘undocumented’ person is not documented in USA system.

  32. @TPOF –

    The working class and the middle class are angry. They are realising that their life will always be harder than it was for their parents, and opportunities will be fewer. They are angry about the downwards slope on this graph.

    AOC and Bernie Sanders are angry about that graph too. Biden was not, nor was Hilary Clinton.

    That is the anger that Trump tapped into.

    (and yes, I am aware that Trump is actively making that line worse. That’s not the point. The point is that people are so angry at the establishment for causing the problem that they are willing to take a chance on someone that claims they can solve the problem, even if that person has no desire or ability to solve it)

  33. And the young soldiers booing when Trump mentioned Newsom and Bass is even more disturbing.

    Americans can be just as exceptional as Japanese, Germans, Cambodians and Hutus (etc)… given the chance.

    Or, more accurately and less inflammatory, there is nothing so exceptional about the US that they cant slide into moral decay like other places and other peoples have.

    Trump really is out of control. And this time there is no-one in his cabinet who would hold him back (even if they wanted to).

  34. ‘Luigi Smith says:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:44 am

    Voice Endeavour says re Tasmania:

    “The chaos in this case is caused by…’
    =================
    The chaos has many causes and to some extent it could be argued that all parties and the electoral system are all contributing to it.

    The Greens might reflect that one of the causes for the chaos is that neither Labor nor the Liberals want anything to do with the Greens.


  35. meher babasays:
    Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 10:41 am
    yabba: “I have the full-bore Biden ailment, so send apologies, as I would not really be able to join in. Have had the bore out operation, plus supra-pubic catheter (SPC) fitted, with spigot (an amazing thing). On testosterone clobbering medication, which costs the PBS a fortune. Seems to be working, somewhat. Have fun. Go well.”
    —————————————————————————–
    Oh dear, how what terrible news. On the basis of painful personal experience, I have concluded that catheters in any form are Satan’s work, so I can only speculate with horror at what an SPC might be like.

    Notwithstanding our many past stoushes, I’ll be sorry to miss seeing you on the 27th and I wish you a rapid recovery

    My father told me, who was healthy into his 60s, that old age is a curse. He died just short of 85 years.

  36. @Boerwar – Labor don’t want to govern with greens support because they don’t want to govern. Being an opposition MLA is a sweet salary, the party is pretty much guaranteed 10/35 seats minimum, and you don’t have to do any work if you aren’t trying to increase your vote share.

    Liberals don’t want to work with the Greens because of obvious policy differences where the Greens want to protect the environment and young people, while the Liberals want to exploit both.

    What lessons can the Greens take from that?

    AS I said before, the most likely way out of this is with an Independent Premier, governing with Green and independent support

  37. Best wishes for a speedy recovery to all those Bludgers who have lately reported health problems. From memory this includes Yabba, A-E, MB and Vic plus one other who had RSV.

  38. D&M
    I don’t remember Travellers in Derry Girls but it’s a while since i binged on it.

    There is a hilarious episode where the girls go into the Donegal Gaeltacht to prepare the wake for Sr. George Michael’s aunt and they come across an elderly couple who speak Ulster Gaelic (which is apparently a difficult dialect for other speakers).
    James, who grew up in England, says “I think this woman has had a stroke” while Clare (with a straight face) says “I have decided to concentrate on French rather than Irish, because I think it will give me more opportunities” Meanwhile , misled by Michelle, answers the policeman on the border’ question of why they are going to the Republic with “We are going to be ridden by big young Donegal farmers”

  39. Voice Endeavour @ #91 Wednesday, June 11th, 2025 – 10:57 am

    The point is that people are so angry at the establishment for causing the problem that they are willing to take a chance on someone that claims they can solve the problem, even if that person has no desire or ability to solve it

    This may also explain why many people still vote for the major political parties.

  40. “The Left needs to get its head around this one because it is being used as a fulcrum to destroy much, if not most, of what is good about most countries.”

    Indeed.

    As a politically active young man I had a major wakeup call with the Tampa.

    Up until then I was a bit naive and thought that people who supported the Liberal Party did so about taxes and money and really on social issues most of us thought the same, except for a small rump of real arch conservatives in the country and in Qld etc. Howard had to dog whistle to those people because being open about it would lose him votes, I thoughts.

    So it was a bit of a system shock to discover the majority of Australians approved of Howard’s chest beating about asylum seekers, or “boat people” as the new vernacular became, and that opposing this was rapidly hugely unpopular. That incident unsheltered me about what Australia is really like. Unfortunately it’s now about 25 years later and parts of the left are still in absolute denial about the majority attitude to immigration and refugees.

    The entire Brexit thing in the UK and then the return of Farage with “Reform” post-Brexit is 100% about anti-immigration. It always was. The idiot politicians in the UK managed to deliver a highly damaging Brexit that didn’t actually even satisfy the people who wanted Brexit, because Brexit never meant Brexit. Brexit always meant “we hate freedom of immigration”.

    Trump’s major appeal to the American audience always began with that fucking wall he talked about in the 2016 campaign. It’s all about “othering” people who aren’t in his predominantly white predominantly Christian base. Treating everyone who’s not in his base like shit. Because the US is full of undocumented immigrants already, the American context goes a step further than keeping out new refugees and migrants in favour of hurling out existing ones (and if it means “accidentally” also hurling out American citizens who look brown, oh well).

    THis is not just an Anglosphere problem, it’s an issue in Germany, France, all across Europe.

    Australia is relatively lucky – the sea is a barrier to the kind of widespread “illegal” immigration that the UK and the US and European countries get, and as long as offshore detention and boat interceptions remain in place the issue is very muted – Dutton got no traction with it at all this election cycle. But demands for Labor to end these policies are extremely misplaced, though well-meaning.

  41. How does the old saw go “Rather be ruled by one lion than a thousand rats”?

    I believe that Tasmania has a surfiet of rats at present.

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