The potential for a Liberal legal challenge to the result in Bradfield remains the only complication to a resolution of the federal election, with a 40-day period for the lodgement of such a challenge to commence when the Australian Electoral Commission returns the writs, which it must do by July 9. The impasse also stands in the way of a final resolution of the national two-party preferred result, with the AEC relating it is loath to disturb the ballot papers as required to complete its Labor-versus-Liberal count for the seat. The current progress result recorded for the seat on the AEC site is stuck at an early stage accounts for only about 10% of the total, and is evidently dominated by strong areas for the Liberals. With full results available for all other seats, the final result looks likely to land at 55.2-44.8 to Labor.
We remain in something of a limbo on the federal polling front. Roy Morgan had the first voting intention poll of the term last week, but has apparently not resumed its normal weekly schedule. Peter Lewis of Essential Research says his agency’s normally fortnightly poll is “on a post-election sabbatical/hiatus for a few months”. Experience suggests Newspoll in The Australian may be another month away, and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers perhaps another month more.
Never fear though, for a snap Tasmanian election may shortly be upon us, just 14 months after an election at which the Liberals held on to power with the support of a now alienated cross-bench. The state’s Governor currently considering Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s request for a dissolution following last week’s parliamentary no confidence motion. I’ll have a post up on that when the situation becomes clearer, and if an election indeed ensues, will put together a guide for it as fast as humanly possible and set to work on live results. Local hero Kevin Bonham relates that the window for such an election is in the four weeks between July 19 and August 9.
TK: re: Santos take-over “Would it still need govt approval? ”
Yes. It would require approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board, and they can attach restrictions with approval, or reject it outright.
C@tmomma @ 7.28
5. Peter Dutton
6. David Littleproud.
7. Angus Taylor
8. Leysy Sussan
9. and here in Robertson, Lucy Wicks ( to much you can add any re-cycled dud – male or female from the Scummo day)s.
This is the current FIRB board : https://foreigninvestment.gov.au/investing-in-australia/about-us/firb
Just looking through that FIRB material, I missed this change introduced in March 2025 : https://www.allens.com.au/insights-news/insights/2025/03/recent-developments-in-foreign-investment-firb-regulation/
> Two-year ban on foreign persons buying established dwellings
> For many years, successive federal governments have maintained a policy setting that generally prohibits foreign persons from purchasing established dwellings. There were limited exceptions, the main one being that temporary residents could apply for approval to purchase and retain ownership of an established dwelling so long as it was their principal place of residence.
> On 16 February 2025, the Government closed this exception by announcing a ban on foreign persons buying established homes for at least two years, from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2027. The stated objective was that ‘Australians will be able to buy homes that would have otherwise been bought by foreign investors’.
> On 14 March 2025, Treasury released an updated Residential Land guidance note which notes the ban, removes the exception for temporary residents and sets out limited exceptions to the ban. These exceptions include the following :
> > Redevelopment into at least 20 additional dwellings: approval may be granted to a foreign person who proposes to redevelop an established dwelling into at least 20 additional dwellings, with no sales permitted prior to completion of construction. The previous exception only required a redevelopment to result in one additional dwelling.
> > Commercial scale established dwellings: approval may be granted to a foreign person for an acquisition that supports the availability of housing on a commercial scale. For example, multi-unit developments such as retirement villages, assisted living or aged care facilities and student accommodation. This is a new exception in the guidance note, however it more or less reflects current practice.
> > Build-to-rent developments: approval may be granted to a foreign person for acquisition of established BTR developments, provided certain conditions are met. The exception applies not only to direct acquisitions, but also to indirect acquisitions such as those of equity securities in entities that own BTR developments. The conditions include that the BTR development consists of at least 50 dwellings where each dwelling is offered for lease terms of at least five years, at least 10% of the dwellings are ‘affordable dwellings’, and that the foregoing remain satisfied during the shorter of the period in which the foreign person holds the interest and 15 years after the completion of the development.
Victoria @ 10.11am
Don’t worry have 200 Abrahms heavy duty battle tanks to protect from the invaders.
Unfortunately, we haven’t given tham all to Ukraine where they could be of most use in their resistance to the fascist invader.
This is the type of useless things which the Liberals purchase for our Defence Forces.
And they have the audacity to trump that we need to lift our defence expenditure to 5% of GDP.
Cat the FIRB review board membership is here.
https://foreigninvestment.gov.au/investing-in-australia/about-us/firb
4 of 7 members were appointed since the May 2022 government change.
If we adequately taxed the gas industry, foreign ownership would not be so problematic.
Reports that the US is sending 17 refueling air tankers to the Middle East to support Israel and/or US Planes in the region.
Aircraft Carrier Nimitz moving in.
If Iran strikes US bases then the US will destroy what is left of Iran military.
Macca
We have 70 Abrams after the recent $4 billion purchase by the Morrison government.
It was what Scomo did with the $2 billion/year saving from cancelling the French sub contract.
As yet, still nobody is actually working in Adelaide or Perth on SSN construction or even the construction of the future SSN build and maintenance infrastructure.
BSF – I think it needs SA government approval as well as a federal government tick.
The SA government just removed the 15% limit on shareholders of Santos, so one would have to believe that this is something that they don’t have a problem with.
We dodged a bullet. Dutts would’ve wanted a parade.
Luigi Smithsays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 12:04 pm
We dodged a bullet. Dutts would’ve wanted a parade.
___________________
We already have the annual ANZAC day stuff. Could just added some hardware to that.
A typical ANZAC parade looks far more professional than the lazy Trump effort. Better to go smaller but show off your fittest and best dressed. The War Memorial to Parliament House sightline is also pretty good.
Further on the FIRB, interesting background to one of the two Morrison appointed non-exec members, Stephen Skala.
“Active beyond banking and commerce, Mr Skala is Chairman of the Heide Museum of Modern Art, an Honorary Life Governor of the General Sir John Monash Foundation, a Director of the Centre for Independent Studies, and a Member of the International Council of the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) in New York. He was previously Chairman of Film Australia Limited and the Australian Centre for Contemporary Art, Vice President (Deputy Chairman) of The Walter & Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, the acting Chairman and Director of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, and a Director of the Australian Ballet.”
The other Morrison appointee, Carolyn Kay has something in common:
“Ms Kay is also a non-executive director of The General Sir John Monash Scholarship Foundation and Trustee of Sydney Grammar School.”
Pi – Thanks. I knew in the past that had been an issue. I sold the last of my Woodside two weeks ago…. 🙁
Holden – I have counted 21 flying out.
“The South Australian government says it will have to be convinced that a takeover bid for oil and gas company Santos represents a good deal for the state.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-16/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/105419516
I mean seriously, looking aside the politics of ANZAC day,
This lot:
https://youtu.be/3N7hCyTWX6g?feature=shared
Are doing a far better professional presentation than this lot:
https://youtu.be/8cqpEHEpBOs?feature=shared
Mavis,
I am glad you liked the cartoons. For me they are one off the b best summaries of news and opinion.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 11:57 am
Reports that the US is sending 17 refueling air tankers to the Middle East to support Israel and/or US Planes in the region.
Aircraft Carrier Nimitz moving in.
If Iran strikes US bases then the US will destroy what is left of Iran military.
===========================================================
No fan of Iran but Israel stated this current round of aggression. If USA wants to support this act of aggression. They can hardly be seen as voice of reason on this or a force of justifiable vengeance. They just put themselves on the same moral level as countries like Russia and North Korea.
In a just world the force applied to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons programs contrary to world treaties. Should be exactly the same as those used to dismantle Israel’s nuclear weapons. Which contravene exactly the same treaties.
What’s with the heavy rock soundtrack? I thought Chump liked the Village People.
24 US tanker aircraft head eastward from the United States to Europe, an unusually large number.
I have read the 3 previous Nikki Sava books covering the 2016, 2019 and 2022 elections and the lead up to them.
They are excellent reads.
She has no time for the RWNJ’s of the Liberal Party.
Looking forward to this one.
On another topic has anyone heard what was written in the piece of paper held by the 12th man Ian McLaughlin regarding JWH agreeing to serve only 1 term and then hand over to Costello?
Of course the lying rodent claimed it doesn’t exist whereas Costello says it does.
They have caught the guy in Minnesota in Sibley County. My grandmother was born in that area.
https://www.startribune.com/melissa-hortman-shooting-vance-boelter-suspect/601373342
So if you resign from the Liberal party just before the election to run a fairly nasty campaign against a Teal. This campaign then has nothing to do with the Liberal party?
“Warlow-Shill said the Repeal the Teal campaign was not linked to the Liberal Party, and that she resigned as a Liberal Party member in February.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/someone-will-get-hurt-zoe-daniel-feared-for-her-safety-in-toxic-election-campaign-20250605-p5m54g.html
Any kind of comparison between our Oz ANZAC Day and the charade that just happened in Washington is laughable.
It does not matter a toss whether the US soldiers did not look like the Grenadier Guards.
The purpose of parades for Anzac and those say of November 11 in UK are for remembrance not sycophancy for a degenerate.
Warlow-Shill lmao, such a brutal case of nominative determinism.
Tricotsays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 1:50 pm
The purpose of parades for Anzac and those say of November 11 in UK are for remembrance not sycophancy for a degenerate.
____________________
Hey, whats it like living in 1995?
Tricotsays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 1:50 pm
Any kind of comparison between our Oz ANZAC Day and the charade that just happened in Washington is laughable.
It does not matter a toss whether the US soldiers did not look like the Grenadier Guards.
The purpose of parades for Anzac and those say of November 11 in UK are for remembrance not sycophancy for a degenerate.
===========================================================
Also our parades don’t cost the taxpayer anywhere near $45 million dollars (USD) I suspect. The also get far larger crowds too.
100’s of thousands attend Sydney’s Gay Mardi Gras Parade. Trump just went with the wrong type of parade. He could have gone with his favourite Village People music too.
Omar Comin’says:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 1:53 pm
Warlow-Shill lmao, such a brutal case of nominative determinism.
=======================================================
She was aptly named. I suspect she was still a Liberal shill.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 10:19 am
There certainly is a group think which has developed here over AUKUS. I guess I have to post Professor John Blaxland’s opinion piece from The Conversation again to provide a view contrary to this group think.
_____
This sort of post is still jaw dropping FOUR YEARS after the Morrison brain fart was first announced.
What has to be remembered when considering the possibility of ‘group thought’ being at play is that most of those that you now accuse of ‘group thought’ were either pro-AUKUS when it was announced (ie. Socrates) or were a worst (or best, depending on your POV) AUKUS agnostic. You, on the other hand were instantly hyper enthusiastic – once it became clear that Albo and Marles had rolled over for a tummy rub. Only the likes of myself, and far more serious folk like Paul Keating, Hugh White and Malcolm Turnbull sounded a cautionary note (as an aside, before Sheridan went completely gaga for OHFUCKUS he at least correctly identified the likely capability gap as a consequence the cancellation of the Attack Class program, something worth considering when contemplating the looming inability of RAN).
There is no ‘group thought’ by AUKUS skeptics. Only the growing realisation of two things that were instantly obvious to me ion that fateful morning of 16 September 2021: “catastrophe”. Morrison has simultaneously ‘baked in’ a capability gap for the RAN to execute its entire raison d’être – to defend Australia by denying access to any potential foe through the strategic pinch-point that dot the archipelagic arc that runs from Suva to Sumatra (and without any sense of irony, you refer to the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ in your ‘cut ‘n paste’ article; FFS) AND he has made Australia much more vulnerable by making not just remote stations like Pine Gap and Northwest cape strategic targets, but our mainland cities. As a ‘bonus’ he has put us in the frontline of a geopolitical flare with our main trading partner – a country that ‘but for’ the US alliance is of no threat to Australia. What Malcolm Fraser called ‘the China Dilemma’.
If there is ‘group thought’ involved it is wholly within the Canberra Bubble – comprising the ADF brass, most politicians in the major parties – with a special shout out to the juvenile morons in the self styled ‘Wolverines’ club and of course, the MSM. Both of the major private corporations – Newscorpse and 9/Faix have been hot and sweaty in this regard, and nearly all of the other have ridden shotgun.
Australia have never been more vulnerable. And it largely the ‘group thought’ of the Chicomm phobic war-hawks that is to blame. We cannot execute a proper Anti Access and Area Denial defence policy to defend Australia. We are joined at the hip to an unreliable ‘ally’ whose interests simply do not align with ours. As Keating said, emerging from the wreckage is an Australia that has been turned into an American frontier nuclear fort aimed directly at China and completely at the mercy of the geopolitical fandango that both superpowers are going to play this century.
Had Trump gone with Mardi Gras Parade instead. He could of silenced his critics. If I was choreographing the event. At the start of the Mardi Gras I would have Trump behind curtains with a microphone. So you could hear but not see him. The he would say “my enemies claim that I want to be King but that is not true”. Then he would step out behind curtain in a sequined dress and say “I want to be Queen”. Then ABBA’s “Dancing Queen” would play followed by something from Freddy Mercury.
Trump obviously can’t pull the crowds anymore. He needs to reinvent himself, I’m suggest as herself.
OK. I’ve searched and found them: India’s Camel Regiments marching on parade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Fleuj9Mee4
Fast forward to the 40 second point to find the camouflaged camels.
Is it to much to ask that they call it camelflage?
Luigi Smithsays:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 2:41 pm
OK. I’ve searched and found them: India’s Camel Regiments marching on parade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Fleuj9Mee4
Fast forward to the 40 second point to find the camouflaged camels.
Is it to much to ask that they call it camelflage?
=========================================================
I sort of picture a Camel Regiment coming over yellowish desert dunes. Their natural hair colour would be a far better camelflage in that situation.
Also, comparing ANZAC day (or the Camel Regiments!) to the Trump parade is not about a moral equivalency.
Its just observing that by visual comparison, the US Army appears as fat and lazy as its commander and chief. Go either colour and spectacle (like India); or absolute precision (like China/NK); or tightly focused around a spectacular visual landscape (ANZAC day in Canberra); or massive scale (like Russia).
Instead we got middling size, de-saturated colours, appallingly choreographed; down a generic street; featuring personnel that didn’t look elite nor behaved like it.
A complete shambles.
Bizzcan….Have not a clue what you mean…
Tricot says:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 2:54 pm
Bizzcan….Have not a clue what you mean…
_____________________________
Just a broad statement that some feel John Howard made ANZAC day all about his fetishes (the “sycophancy for a degenerate” as you note)
Three people shot outside a Kebab shop in Auburn, Sydney. Fortunately non serious apparently.
@bizzcan – massive scale for Russia? Not recently
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-one-tank-victory-parade-is-a-timely-reminder-russia-can-be-beaten/
Re AUKUS;
For me, the argument that Morrison signed us up for AUKUS (and Albo & Co followed suit to minimise political risk), on the basis of an easy way (what’s $368B when it’s not your money and will never the there to account for it?) to gain long-term security from the US (and help prop-up the US defence industry) and that this agreement locks us in to a forward defence posture, that potentially could drag us into US-China conflict over Taiwan, when there is a more sensible strategy (defending the archipelago via alternative subs) as detailed by Hugh White and advocated by A_E on here is compelling.
I hope the US present Albo with a get of of AUKUS jail free card on this and that he is brave enough to play the card.
A quick comment on the state of our online media, specifically news.com.au
I’ve noticed in the last 6-12 months, maybe earlier but it only came into my psyche lately, that the site has been posting more and more videos of people either about to die or have just actually died. This month alone they posted footage of dead people from the plane crash in India, a tourist falling to her death in a paragliding accident, and a shark attack victim.
Does this breach any kind of Australian media rules? These are deeply distressing videos. The rule of dont look and it’s not your problem seems a bit contrived. I’m still thinking daily about the paragliding accident victim weeks later. I have also noticed that you might watch one of their videos on another matter, lets say celebrity news, and once it has stopped the video auto plays the next news story, of which the above are examples.
I have now stopped watching videos on that news site.
@TheKing
Don’t get me wrong: AUKUS subs would be quite capable of A2-AD work, provided that they (1) exist, and (2) are made available – and indeed tasked – with that work as a first order priority. The problems however are obvious as they were avoidable.
Something as simple as keeping (now urgently restarting) the Attack Class program for at least the first 4-6 subs and not going ahead with Pillar 1, but instead refocusing on either brand new ‘Block VII’ Virginia Class subs from america for the 2040s OR focusing to a much higher degree on getting both America AND Britain to ensure that the SSN-AUKUS Class (BTW – these are only ever slated for introduction into the RAN from the mid 2040s onwards) is a success.
Of course, the risk associated with being so tied with America at this juncture of geopolitics, vis-a-vis ‘The China Paradox” would remain. However, without the sheer desperation of the RAN, ADF and the Canberra Political-Defence-Media establishment over the possibility of a ‘no subs’ outcome, I suspect that the government – particularly this government, would be pretty well placed to navigate that vexed issue.
One of the reasons why I enjoy Friendlyjordies’ content is because he clearly actually believes in something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWoIEpKvZKY
That’s way more than can be said for most of the political class in Australia, and indeed the Anglosphere. It would be rare to see this much passion from people talking about the US Democrats or UK Labour these days. And as for the right, all the Australian Liberals have is a battle of what flavour of “We’re not Labor” they want, whether to do the Turnbull or go the full Trump.
Mostly Interested @ #1487 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 3:24 pm
It’s even worse on The Daily Mail, they even have auto-playing gifs of horrible things happening.
It’s clickbait, plain and simple. They get paid by advertisers to appeal to our lizard-brained instincts to curiously inspect macabre things and they seem to be doing pretty well from that.
Kirsdarke
I think in time you’ll see Shanks is just a (very polished) partisan spinner.
We did far better parade ground drill/march pasts in the ’60s at HMAS Leeuwin & Cerberus than this mob. They looked slack and as if they would prefer to be in another place:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YC0SvPUSLBw
On security I have been opposed to AUKUS since mid 2022, having initially been willing to accept SSNs for the RAN as AE identified. I hardly see how that is “groupthink”. In fact opposition to AUKUS has been expressed by a wide variety of people, approaching the issues from separate technical, financial and now political risk (Trump) concerns. The more detail we discover about AUKUS, the more doubtful it looks. Recognition of the folly of AUKUS has brought a diverse group together.
Now instead we see discussions about a formal agreement between the EU and Australia. Good!
With Trump weakening NATO, potentially permanently, this makes a lot more sense:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/16/australia-to-hold-talks-aimed-at-entering-defence-pact-with-eu
“After arriving in Calgary on Sunday local time, Albanese confirmed that Australia could sign on to a deal similar to those agreed between the EU and Japan, South Korea and the UK.
Marles and the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, have been charged with developing the plans through work with their counterparts.”
In a negotiating sense, this also gives Albo leverage in his talks with Trump.
I don’t like ‘Defence pacts’ , other than with our immediate neighbours.
The Echidna strategy is the way to go.
Mavis @ #1492 Monday, June 16th, 2025 – 3:36 pm
Yesterday’s Dictator Birthday Parade indicated to me that the Officer class of the US Military probably don’t really care for God-King Presidentrump.
If they marched like that on a more solemn occasion or even in basic training they would be chewed out for sure by the NCO’s who report to their Officers, but here they were allowed to just walk briskly in front of Pol Potbelly and just leave it at that.
As mentioned before, I think most of them were more pissed off at giving up their Saturdays to march through the hot, humid D.C. streets than bothering to honour their Dear Leader.
Is the earthquake at the nuclear facility definitely a natural phenomenon (and a coincidence) or is there some possibility of something more sinister?
Non-technical person asking what’s almost certainly a very stupid question
OC – That is so Sydney. In Melbourne, they would have been attacked with a machete.
Strikeforce Falcon is on the job. One of the victims is a known target having had 2 previous attempts on his life. The two others seem to be bystanders.
Kirsdarke:
Monday, June 16, 2025 at 3:44 pm
Agree. I’d like to know if the brass planned it that way.
Rex
I don’t think the proposed EU agreement is a defense pact a la ANZUS or AUKUS. In fact neither of those agreements contains an explicit promise to defend Australia. We have no true treaty ally now.
Instead I assume the EU would have a security cooperation and technology sharing agreement similar to what it has now with South Korea and Japan.
On Sam Roggaveen and The Echidna Strategy we are agreed. Not sure if you have read Sam’s latest piece.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/june-2025/essays/sub-text
US embassy branch in Tel Aviv was damaged by an Iranian missile.
Iranian missiles hit Israel’s largest oil refinery in the country, located in Haifa Bay, northern Israel, according to footage verified by the Times. Firefighters are trying to contain a fire ignited by the strike and rescue people trapped in the area, said Tal Volvovitch a spokeperson for the Israel Fire and Rescue Services.