First up, two other things to note. There is another new post below this one exploring the minutiae of pollsters’ preference flows, a subject of great relevance to much of what is discussed below. The other is the Poll Bludger’s pre-election donation drive. On with the show:
• RedBridge Group has a national poll that gives the Coalition its poorest result yet, recording both major parties at 34% of the primary vote – up one in Labor’s case and down two for the Coalition ” with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up a point to 8%. This includes a timely two-party preferred result based on respondent-allocated preferences, in addition to the usual one based on 2022 election flows (a matter explored in very great depth in the aforementioned other post), both of which come in at 53-47 in favour of Labor. This is despite 73% out of the 7% One Nation vote (with a duly very small sample) going to the Coalition, compared with 64.3% in 2022. The report notes that that this improvement in isolation would have added 0.8% to the Coalition’s two-party result. Small-sample state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales and 56-44 in Victoria, and trailing 57-43 in Queensland. The accompanying report features voluminous further detail on factors influencing vote choice. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1011.
• A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 10%. Anthony Albanese is credited with a 47-35 lead over Peter Dutton on preferred prime minister. Among other things, the full report contains breakdowns for the four largest states along with useful (albeit small sample) age-by-gender result, one finding being that the Greens are twice as strong among young women as men. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 2000.
• DemosAU has two polls offering combined results of selected marginal seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and has a large sample national poll on the way), the former of which puts meat on the bones of suggestions One Nation is surging in seats such as those covered, namely Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke. Labor is down 7.2% on the primary vote to 32%, of which the Liberals yield only a one-point gain to 31%, while One Nation is up 5.6% to 10%. The Greens are up 3.2% to 13%, and Trumpet of Patriots manages only 2%, down 4.5% on the United Australia Party result. Labor holds a two-party lead of 53-47 based on 2022 election flows: if the Liberals really are doing as well out of One Nation as some have suggested, that may reduce to 51-49. The poll was conducted April 13 to 22 from a sample of 924.
• The DemosAU Sydney marginal seats poll covers Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa and is much better for Labor, who are credited with a two-party lead of 56-44, a swing in their favour of 1.3%. Both major parties are well down on the primary vote, Labor to 36% (down 4.3%) and Liberal to 28% (down 7.4%), mostly accounted for by 11% for independents (there are four independent candidates across the three seats, none particularly high profile, compared with only one last time), with the Greens on 10% (up 1.4%). All three seats are highly multicultural and duly weak for One Nation. The poll was conducted April 13 to 27 from a sample of 905.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review offers an overview based on the views of “multiple campaign strategists and frontbenchers from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens”. Most of the assessments offered are conventional wisdom, though Labor appears hopeful about Griffith and Bonner along with more fancied Brisbane; a Liberal source goes so far as to say they “think we will win Werriwa”; Labor is rated a better chance of retaining Chisholm than was earlier thought; both sides expect Labor to hold Tangney, and give Labor a “slight edge” in Lyons; and Liberals are pessimistic about Bradfield, though “early anxiety over independents in Wannon and Forrest had faded”. A Liberal source did not concur with a view related by “senior Labor and Liberal sources” in The Advertiser that Sturt was “increasingly likely to fall to Labor”. The West Australian reports a Liberal source saying Curtin is 51-49, without revealing in whose favour.
• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.
MABWM says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:11 pm
+1 from me, and thank you for reminding me to make a donation to PB. I give a regular amount, but the extraordinary amount of work involved in the election, begs a bonus.
C@tmomma
“You’re a runt, Centre. ”
Don’t you ever check your posts for spelling mistakes?
MABWM @ #742 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:11 pm
+1
All I’ll add is that I hope that the volume of news goes down a wee bit after the election, it’s been a big job compiling it all. Not that I truly think it will, that’s not the way the world seems to work any more. It’s information overload on steroids every day!
…Not that I mind doing it tho 😉
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/01/polls-redbridge-group-spectre-strategy-demosau-sydney-and-melbourne-marginals-open-thread/comment-page-4/#comment-4515586, but those international rankings of Australian are often preceded with much of Northwestern Europe (so not Poms or Yanks)
Blowing up humanity, clearing land, climate disruption resources will only go so far (See Paul Keating, and the Treasurer seems to be on the right path with ‘measuring what matters’ to people, eco systems, beyond capital), though clearly much could be done in terms of manufacturing that’s more than assembly, services, knowledge, experiences
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_rankings_of_Australia
Douglas and Milko @ #725 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:04 pm
Jeez, the duopoly really got you hoodwinked, don’t they? You can’t even imagine any other option.
Lol, Bellwether. 😉
98.6 – Well ultimately in a few hundred years, those with indigenous heritage would out number those with out if not for further immigration.
It will be a bit like anyone with any English heritage now is highly likely to be a descendant of King Edward III.
I do hope Labor stops subsidizing CO2 emitting tourism joints.
Omar Comin’ @ #748 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:15 pm
But, of course. 😉
C@t
Who asked you, care to elaborate?
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:20 pm
98.6 – Well ultimately in a few hundred years, those with indigenous heritage would out number those with out if not for further immigration.
It will be a bit like anyone with any English heritage now is highly likely to be a descendant of King Edward III.’
==================
Out marriage rates are high and the Indigenous birth rate just high enough for numbers to increase. But merely having a distant ancestor who is Indigenous does not cut it. There are three parts. Community acceptance as an Indigenous person is the third part.
Here’s more re Brethren from the SMH.
Something needs to be done after the election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-100-per-cent-turnout-leaks-reveal-brethren-secrecy-push-bid-to-ramp-up-poll-presence-20250501-p5lvpg.html
2025 is not 2022 yesterday should of woken people up with AFR story on one nation preference article.
Federal Labor has done stuff all in the outer suburbs across Australia for these newcomers and me thinks they have arrogantly assumed migrants will vote them automatically.
Libs me thinks have filled a vacuum good that they have targeted this cohort.
Fascinating this end game it’s like two yachts tacking from two different directions heading for the finish line it’s very possible libs could pick up a surprising number of seats in relation to their primary vote.
Mind you is their strategy wrong ? well the polls say it’s is but let’s wait and see.
Wong wait till sat.
Four seats in Perth that are in play.
Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women’s football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced.
It amended its rules on 11 April, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women’s football at all levels.
However, following the UK Supreme Court’s ruling on 15 April that the legal definition of a woman is based on biological sex, the FA has scrapped that policy and says only those born biologically female will be permitted to play.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cz01z4rdx4no
Centre
Humble in victory, gracious in defeat.
Been There @ #762 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:25 pm
I don’t think you can stop people from volunteering, but they should lose their charity status for participating in and advocating political messaging.
P1 shouldn’t have thrown her Apple Watch at the brick wall this morning in a fit of rage following yougov’s latest report.
It could have been critical to her as Saturday afternoon turns into the evening with an accelerated uptick in her bpm and other vitals
98.6
Big night Federal election night, so much anticipation. Sitting there checking the time, stop talking panel let Anthony tell us some numbers. Every year, hmm be fun but I actually like the idea of four, if Australia elects them at least give them the time to do the job they promised the Australian people. It may even help either side be bolder, more time to show results, see the sky never fell down, despite what the media said it would.
When you did your “forecasting”?
Lol! What did that entail?
______________________________
Rather basic this time around but have used the same process for years. I take the seats with new members from the last election and add at least one percent sophomore surge. Take a logical example of what I expect the primary to be based on historical and current data. Overlay with the preferences taken from 2022 against any changes such as this year slightly increased the ONE and Trumpet slightly for the Liberals.
I had the ALP decreasing their primary vote from 2022 and the Liberals slightly increasing their vote so came up with LNP 37, ALP 32, GRN 12, ONE 8, PUP 1, others 10. Then used preferences to the LNP 14% GRN, 75% ONE, 71% PUP, 45% others.
This brings me to 50.1/49.9.
On a rant now but why all the give aways, look at me this is what I am giving you, tax cuts, a thousand bucks, cheaper fuel, bribe after bribe, seriously what happened to ask not what your country can do for you…now it is what a you going to give me. Piss poor, both of them.
Player One says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:18 pm
Humour me: tell me what the other options are. And if you can to even do that, then why should we take any notice of your prognostications.
Let me help you.
I can imagine quite a few options, but only one that makes any sense: The Teals coalesce as a centre-right political party (like what the Liberals used to be) , and grow their number of seats, bringing in some of the more sane Nationals. This at least is a realistic scenario but why you think this particular grouping would have the treasury benches (against the Labor party) forever really is special pleading.
Growth in crossbench MPs creates potential for democratic electoral reform
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/growth-crossbench-mps-creates-potential-democratic-electoral-reform
“Some pre-election polls are showing a historic tally of seats for Labor. Yet, at the same time, less people are voting for the major parties.
How can Labor be set to win big, while its primary vote drops? The answer lies in Australia’s undemocratic voting system, which works to funnel small parties’ preferences to the Coalition and Labor.
Because all seats are geographically based, millions of voters are disenfranchised if the party they voted for does not win in the electorate they live in. It doesn’t need to be this way; other countries use proportional voting systems that ensure the number of MPs elected from each party is broadly representative of how the population voted.”
Bellweather,
Warming up for 8 out of 10 Cats and QI!
“Trent Slaterssays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:33 pm
When you did your “forecasting”?
Lol! What did that entail?
______________________________
Rather basic this time around but have used the same process for years. I take the seats with new members from the last election and add at least one percent sophomore surge. Take a logical example of what I expect the primary to be based on historical and current data. Overlay with the preferences taken from 2022 against any changes such as this year slightly increased the ONE and Trumpet slightly for the Liberals.
I had the ALP decreasing their primary vote from 2022 and the Liberals slightly increasing their vote so came up with LNP 37, ALP 32, GRN 12, ONE 8, PUP 1, others 10. Then used preferences to the LNP 14% GRN, 75% ONE, 71% PUP, 45% others.
This brings me to 50.1/49.9.”
Yeah, OK…..I gotta say I am most interested in drilling down into this…..
“Take a logical example of what I expect the primary to be based on historical and current data.”
What could this possibly mean?
As it is, you are somewhere between 2 and 3 % of all the other aggregators / polls etc.
You are 1.4 below the most favourable pollster for the coalition.
@Trent Slaters
I prefer the add the new members, give them an extra 1%, add some unicorn horn, stir in some dragon hearts, a bit of toad juice then spread over a parchment and lo and behold Liberals 52/48
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:41 pm
@Trent Slaters
I prefer the add the new members, give them an extra 1%, add some unicorn horn, stir in some dragon hearts, a bit of toad juice then spread over a parchment and lo and behold Liberals 52/48
========================================================
Unless you use some Pixie dust it will not work.
Boerwar at 9.02 pm
The point of Dutton ranting about the Voice? Not so much to reinforce the Hanson preferences. As C Pyne says, most of those come back to the Libs.
The drongos who vote Hanson are the low info voters who rarely notice the news, except for sport and racing etc.
More likely the main effect will be to further alienate professional women in the Teals from the Libs. Once that effect is baked in, Dutton’s strategy of seeking an outer urban holy grail would have no alternative. As a moron once said “you know it makes sense”.
Entropy @ #776 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:45 pm
I forgot the thoughts and prayers too so it will be understated, maybe 53/47
Steelydansays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:38 pm
55% to the Coalition of those that have voted sounds high but I hope it to be true. Polls had been indication an ALP majority Freshwater back to ALP minority.
—
Steelydan, that figure is wishcasting.
In the 2022 election the LNP polled 7.18% more 2PP votes in Prepoll than what they did on Election Day 2PP votes. That statistic has been pretty consistent over the last 3 elections. Using the reciprocal of that statistic and applying it to Freshwater’s 55% gives you a projected Election Day LNP 2PP vote of 54.17%. Fantasy land.
A better method would be to take the current AEF’s LNP 2PP of 48.6% and use the conversion factor of the Total LNP 2PP vote to Election day vote for 2022 of 0.9473 (On election day the LNP won 94.73% of their total 2PP vote). That gives you a projected LNP 2PP Election Day vote of 46.04%. That is eminently more reasonable and in line with all the other poll numbers.
But if you can’t handle that then just add a 3% 2019 polling error, then you get at the very best, 49.06%, still well short of the required 2PP they will need to win on the day to win, which I calculate at present as 55.54% (see here).
I think on Saturday night I won’t be popping open champagne until 2 of these 3 scenarios occur, that Labor holds at least 5 of its 6 most vulnerable seats – Bennelong, Gilmore, Aston, Macnamara, Bullwinkel and Tangney, has no losses anywhere else, or wins other seats to secure a majority.
The massive amount of people being pitched to by theMuslim parties this election that party was not even around last election so tell me how pollsters assumed their vote and others on here .Nobody knows if they will burn or fly!
Guesswork!
Have not even seen enough polling on teals !Where are the majority of their prefs going given they individually decide I think.
Massive number of variables in play.
The Revisionist, yes I know. And I think they’re incorrect.
I’ve said on more than one instance that the Liberal primary generally increases during an election. Even a campaign as poorly run as this, I expect the Liberals to perform better than the current polls.
The average of the LNP primary a month or so out from the election was give or take 36.5% so I’ve added a slight amount to that figure. A slight guestimate based on the historical trend of just over 1% (although I lowered expectation).
Most years I’ll bet on seat overlays although this year I’m not sure there is a lot of value. Maybe the Greens to win Brisbane and Ryan at $4.50 or hold all four for $4.50 but other than that the market is kind of right.
Freshwater 51.5-48.5 to ALP
The poor, misunderstood Houthi rebels didn’t stand a chance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zx6SE-rY-I
Dr Fumbles McStupid:
I prefer the add the new members, give them an extra 1%, add some unicorn horn, stir in some dragon hearts, a bit of toad juice then spread over a parchment and lo and behold Liberals 52/48
lol, no chance.
Those bludgers who are hoping for a Labor minority government might get what they want. They might then hope the minor groups will try to extort concessions from Labor. And then Labor might very well go to an election where the issue would be who runs the country – the government or a cynical, temporary, contrived alliance involving the Reactionaries and various splinters, schisms, parasites and looters.
I think in such an election Labor would win very convincingly.
Trent Slaters @ #785 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:51 pm
you doubting my credentials, a Bachelor in Divination and a Masters in Wishcasting..
you doubting my credentials, a Bachelor in Divination and a Masters in Wishcasting..
Of course not!
For the foreseeable future, the “Treasury Benches” will be occupied by a Centre-Left political grouping or a Centre-Right to Right-wing grouping, because that’s what Australians keep voting for. Few have much time for radical reform on the right or left, let alone the extremes.
The Greens are a niche party which will never get anywhere near governing except possibly as a minor partner in a centre-left coalition. One Nation are just too flaky. Should they become too popular, the “Liberals” will simply shift further right to steal their clothes (and policies). The Teals? With their popularity and geographic concentration, they could become a force if they were to merge into something like the Australian Democrats.
Re Trumpets, I can’t figure out whether they’re a preference harvesting operation or simply Clive’s vanity project. Their ads are much slicker and more appealing than their weird campaign in 2022, although their frequency is beginning to look like spamming. Like all the other minors, they won’t be going anywhere, although fate may tip single members or Senators into a balance of power situation. I hope not.
pied piper says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:48 pm
The Reactionaries simply cannot get close to forming a government. If things go badly for them they will lose Moore, Canning, Forrest, Sturt, Wannon, Nichols, Flinders, Monash, Menzies, Deakin, Casey, Bass, Banks, Hughes, Cowper, Bradfield, Dickson, Longman, Bonner, Leichhardt, Flynn, Forde, Petrie….and maybe one or two wildcards. These are all losable by the Reactionaries. That would be a memorable day for justice and prosperity in this country.
23 seats. And Braddon…24 seats. And Bennelong…25.
This would be a very good thing for the country. The Reactionaries might roughly assemble 30 members in House. They do not deserve that many. Wither to for the Reactionaries then?
HwP
The Rudd dilemma I’d expect!
“Pegasus says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:37 pm
Growth in crossbench MPs creates potential for democratic electoral reform
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/growth-crossbench-mps-creates-potential-democratic-electoral-reform
“Some pre-election polls are showing a historic tally of seats for Labor. Yet, at the same time, less people are voting for the major parties.
How can Labor be set to win big, while its primary vote drops? The answer lies in Australia’s undemocratic voting system, which works to funnel small parties’ preferences to the Coalition and Labor.
Because all seats are geographically based, millions of voters are disenfranchised if the party they voted for does not win in the electorate they live in. It doesn’t need to be this way; other countries use proportional voting systems that ensure the number of MPs elected from each party is broadly representative of how the population voted.””
______
You don’t seem to have a problem with the Greens Political Party accepting 12 out of 76 Senate Seats on ~12% of the National Vote though, do you?
Hypocrite.
The truth is that most of the Greens Political Party 12% comes entirely from being a parasitic organism embedded into Labor’s left flank. Despite your ‘how to vote’ cards, voters who put a 1 next to the greens are entirely free to number the rest of their ballot as they choose. The fact that around 85% of them chose to place Labor about the LNP is their democratic free choice. How are they ‘disenfranchised’? They get multiple choices, and are not limited to just the one vote. How more democratic can you get than that? I’d say that the vast majority of Greens ‘no 1’ voters get the opportunity of also putting the LNP and various cooker parties down the bottom of their ballot paper – AND that it has a positive effect of denying that seat for the reactionaries.
Yet you bitch about that. … and of course simply gaslight the Labor movement in the process. … and the true beneficiaries of these antics? Why that would be the LNP and the likes of Gina the Hutt. Because anything that seeks to rob Labor of political capital only ever benefits the reactionaries.
You like to bleat about ‘the duopoly’. This is an issue of framing. IMO there is a political duopoly in Australia alright: Labor vs Anti-Labor. … and no one can question your loyalty and devotion to the anti-labor cause Peggy. That’s for sure.
I recently saw a video of Gina the Hutt’s nauseating soirée for ‘National Mining Day’ in the Pilbara late last year. Pauline was there. Dutts did a video link. It was a wall to wall ‘get labor’ speeches. Frankly, you might as well have been supping next to Pauline.
Steve777 @ #783 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 10:04 pm
At this stage I think they’re just Big Clive’s vanity project. In the end he just wanted to be the Donald Trump of Australia, but unfortunately for him, and fortunately for us, we have a Westminster Parliamentary political system, so he’d need at least 76/150 MHR’s to vote for him to be Prime Minister, and that’s not happening any time soon.
” The answer lies in Australia’s undemocratic voting system,”
Ah, now we’re descending into full on Trumpism are we Pegasus?
I suppose a Pegasus can wear horseshoes.
I am talking about forcing labor into minority libs have thrown out chance of majority with work from home fiasco policy and a two week poor start to the campaign.
Done well in opposition the coalition and have the right strategy to force a Greens/Labor three year disaster for labor.
This is a shocker of a fed labor gov the same duds are coming back for more.
Throw in the bat Shite crazy Greens and stir!
Love your analysis King. Shows great insights.
A_E, that duopoly you mention is one of the themes of John Birmingham’s book “Leviathan”. It is a history of Sydney. It’s the ALP vs everyone, and it always has been. Their opponents have been crushed and re-constituted many times.
“Re Trumpets, I can’t figure out whether they’re a preference harvesting operation or simply Clive’s vanity project. Their ads are much slicker and more appealing than their weird campaign in 2022”
Vanity.
I am personally pleased that he blows his money on such a shoddy operation, if he just gave that much to the Liberals it would be more effective for the right of politics.
His ads ARE a bit better than 2022 but there’s two problems –
1. Trumpets of Patriots is SUCH a silly name. UAP was so much better (his best idea since Palmer United was to steal the old UAP name). His laziness in shutting down the UAP and not being able to get a new thing going in time and having to utilise this existing stupidly named vehicle – just there are no words, are there?
2. He’s burned too many former voters by now. His target audience has just gone to Pauline.
Duttons strategists foreshore there was no way they were going to win so engaged with Trumps strategists to formulate a Trumpian path to victory.. hence every nutters policy was put forward.. their problem.. this isn’t America … latest .. relax vaping laws.
What will tomorrow bring.. what Trumpian policy haven’t they announced yet.. ..
goll says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 10:07 pm
Yes. Not only would Labor win. The Reactionaries will come face to face with generations of obstruction, deceit, trickery, contempt, malingering and stupidity.
The very good additional consequence would be that the minor voices would have to consider their future too. What is the point of a cross bench if the best it can do is to observe a government at close quarters? Is there anything more futile than sitting as an independent in a house where there’s no effective opposition and a government with an impregnable majority?
The Green strategy will have been defeated along with the Reactionaries, on whom they fundamentally depend for success.
@pp”The massive amount of people being pitched to by theMuslim parties this election that party was not even around last election so tell me how pollsters assumed their vote ”
The pollsters fuckin’ ASKED them how they are going to vote, pp old boy.
That’s what polling IS.
Now you actually know what we’re talking about on this site! I’m glad we had this educational experience together.