First up, two other things to note. There is another new post below this one exploring the minutiae of pollsters’ preference flows, a subject of great relevance to much of what is discussed below. The other is the Poll Bludger’s pre-election donation drive. On with the show:
• RedBridge Group has a national poll that gives the Coalition its poorest result yet, recording both major parties at 34% of the primary vote – up one in Labor’s case and down two for the Coalition ” with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up a point to 8%. This includes a timely two-party preferred result based on respondent-allocated preferences, in addition to the usual one based on 2022 election flows (a matter explored in very great depth in the aforementioned other post), both of which come in at 53-47 in favour of Labor. This is despite 73% out of the 7% One Nation vote (with a duly very small sample) going to the Coalition, compared with 64.3% in 2022. The report notes that that this improvement in isolation would have added 0.8% to the Coalition’s two-party result. Small-sample state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales and 56-44 in Victoria, and trailing 57-43 in Queensland. The accompanying report features voluminous further detail on factors influencing vote choice. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1011.
• A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 10%. Anthony Albanese is credited with a 47-35 lead over Peter Dutton on preferred prime minister. Among other things, the full report contains breakdowns for the four largest states along with useful (albeit small sample) age-by-gender result, one finding being that the Greens are twice as strong among young women as men. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 2000.
• DemosAU has two polls offering combined results of selected marginal seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and has a large sample national poll on the way), the former of which puts meat on the bones of suggestions One Nation is surging in seats such as those covered, namely Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke. Labor is down 7.2% on the primary vote to 32%, of which the Liberals yield only a one-point gain to 31%, while One Nation is up 5.6% to 10%. The Greens are up 3.2% to 13%, and Trumpet of Patriots manages only 2%, down 4.5% on the United Australia Party result. Labor holds a two-party lead of 53-47 based on 2022 election flows: if the Liberals really are doing as well out of One Nation as some have suggested, that may reduce to 51-49. The poll was conducted April 13 to 22 from a sample of 924.
• The DemosAU Sydney marginal seats poll covers Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa and is much better for Labor, who are credited with a two-party lead of 56-44, a swing in their favour of 1.3%. Both major parties are well down on the primary vote, Labor to 36% (down 4.3%) and Liberal to 28% (down 7.4%), mostly accounted for by 11% for independents (there are four independent candidates across the three seats, none particularly high profile, compared with only one last time), with the Greens on 10% (up 1.4%). All three seats are highly multicultural and duly weak for One Nation. The poll was conducted April 13 to 27 from a sample of 905.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review offers an overview based on the views of “multiple campaign strategists and frontbenchers from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens”. Most of the assessments offered are conventional wisdom, though Labor appears hopeful about Griffith and Bonner along with more fancied Brisbane; a Liberal source goes so far as to say they “think we will win Werriwa”; Labor is rated a better chance of retaining Chisholm than was earlier thought; both sides expect Labor to hold Tangney, and give Labor a “slight edge” in Lyons; and Liberals are pessimistic about Bradfield, though “early anxiety over independents in Wannon and Forrest had faded”. A Liberal source did not concur with a view related by “senior Labor and Liberal sources” in The Advertiser that Sturt was “increasingly likely to fall to Labor”. The West Australian reports a Liberal source saying Curtin is 51-49, without revealing in whose favour.
• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.
Team Katich, the TTP preferred in the prediction table is just the tie breaker if multiple people get the seat count right
Handwringing warning.
There does seem to be some confidence in the PB pool. Not arrogance mind. Contentedness?
Imagine for a second a mere 1pt error in Bludgertrack toward the LNP. That would be a 0.5% swing away from the ALP who currently have 77 seats.
Confessions – yeah, $2.60 seems a good bet to me.
It’s usually nice to get a mention in the mainstream media for one’s work, but not so much when Chris Uhlmann uses it to to pursue his anti-renewables agenda.
Socratessays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 10:31 am
EGW
At this point another Dutton backflip only confirms that he knows he is losing and is desperate.
======================================================
Yup! Bring it on.
“the beauty of the Australian electoral system is you can rank the choice of evils all the way down in both houses”
Here in Mallee in the HOR, after alp and greens
,they all appear equally evil.
Mostly Interested @ #150 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 10:11 am
Ta.
HWP 1034am
Fantastic that you met the PM – that will forever make this election memorable for you.
Dandy Murray @ #152 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 10:14 am
You stick your neck out…..
We still love your work tho. Who cares about Uhlmann.
Now… give us a link bro? And some tips so we can flood it with comments.
@TKatich
My own position is cautious optimism – I have no reason not to take this position.
As long as it’s not a big minority, a minority doesn’t bother me – at this stage my own prediction is hovering between 75 and 79. I might adjust tomorrow – but I think people should just say what they think will happen, not “here’s what my thinking is… but I’m going to put it through an anxiety self/soothing filter”. Everyone one here has beefed a prediction or 5.
It’s not like someone’s predictions will change the outcome – jinxes aren’t real.
The noise around it so loud it’s really hard to figure out where support is.
Some surveys showing 60% against, but the vast majority of that is up north, and might be quite soft in terms actual voting outcomes. But the pro side are so incredibly loud about it.
It also has bipartisan Lib/Lab support in parliament. The planning process has been undermined by the two majors and the Greens have a petition out at the moment to trigger a parliamentary vote thingy. But I think in the end, as Labor didn’t want to be wedged on the stadium (many of their voters want it, and Labor does not want to be grouped with the Greens in the minds of Tas voters), it will get through the approvals.
If it gets built or not will come down to the financials, latest reports a doubling in costs already and it hasn’t even been scoped by a builder yet.
Team Katich.
Re Sharkie & Mayo.
As one, who has always followed the family’s agenda, that there is only one place for a CLP candidate and that is last, I too, am surprised by the ALP preferencing Sharkie in Mayo.
She has stated that in the unlikely event of a minority government that she would talk to Dutton, first.
FFS, she is a chancer who managed to ride the Nick Xenophon Team into parliament and managed to be re-elected and thus destroy the Downer Dynasty.
The ALP & Greens should be preferencing each other, and any suitable Independent candidate to help elect a progressive member in this seat.
The CLP candidate should be last and Sharkie, second last.
Mr Dutton, speaking from his northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, sought to downplay the significance of the Coalition’s election campaign performance, which is facing growing internal Coalition criticism for being ill-prepared and mistake-ridden.
Setbacks have included Mr Dutton not appearing to know the price of eggs, prematurely musing about life in Kirribilli, reversing a planned ban on public service work from home rules, “verballing” the Indonesian president, and admitting he did “not know” Donald Trump despite guaranteeing he would land a trade deal in his first months in office.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/dutton-hints-at-coalition-campaign-failure/105237478
One of the architects of Donald Trump’s 2024 victory claims he made an unpublicised visit to Australia to advise the Liberal party about “structural issues” related to Peter Dutton ahead of the federal election.
The veteran Republican strategist Chris LaCivita told undercover reporters posing as prospective clients for political consulting work he was working as a private consultant on the visit to Australia, not in an official capacity or as an adviser to the US president.
Footage of the undercover conversations was published on Thursday by the Europe-based organisations Correctiv and the Centre for Climate Reporting.
‘‘I was in Australia two weeks ago helping the Liberal party there, on some of their structural issues that they were having with Peter Dutton,” LaCivita said on 16 April in the first of two calls. Australia’s election campaign began on 28 March.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/01/trump-campaign-chief-lacivita-liberal-party-australia-ntwnfb-election-claims
Labor minority is now 2.40.
Labor 71 to 75 @3.60 looks like good odds if you expect a minority. Alp 66 to 70 is 7.00
No wonder the coalition are careering towards doom:
“Trump campaign chief claims he visited Australia to advise Liberals at start of election campaign
One of the architects of Donald Trump’s 2024 victory claims he made an unpublicised visit to Australia to advise the Liberal party about “structural issues” related to Peter Dutton ahead of the federal election.
With just two full days of campaigning left, Guardian Australia has reported this morning that the veteran Republican strategist Chris LaCivita told undercover reporters posing as prospective clients for political consulting work he was working as a private consultant on the visit to Australia, not in an official capacity or as an adviser to the US president.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/01/australia-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-campaign-policies-economy-inflation-cost-of-living-coalition-labor-ntwnfb
TK,
Blackout that should keep all of us awake
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/spains-blackout-is-a-flashing-warning-light-for-our-renewable-energy-system/news-story/9b78dbe4d595d6ae37b0a6d0ba9e3abc?utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=TA_LATESTNEWS_AM_02&net_sub_id=284243121&type=curated&position=3
If I didn’t have forty thousand other things to do I’d write a reply to Mr Uhlmann right now. I might still do it.
Mostly – TPP prediction ALP 52.1-47.9
“The solution as far as voting is concerned might be to encourage more postals and early voting at fewer booths.”
Or ban parties from doing HTVs etc at polling booths. They’re not allowed at NT elections and the bliss of voting without in your face people is nice.
Has William published the YouGov results?
“Labor to win clear majority, Coalition in trouble: YouGov poll
Federal Labor will govern with a clear majority while the Coalition will suffer its worst election result in 80 years, if YouGov’s final poll before the election comes true, AAP reports.
YouGov’s modelling points to an 84-seat win for the government, out of 150 lower house seats, to return the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to The Lodge for a second term. The winning party needs 76 seats for a majority.
Under this scenario, the Coalition will drop to 47 seats – a net loss of 11 – meaning the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, will have led his party to its worst seat total since 1946.
Liberal frontbenchers David Coleman, Michael Sukkar and Dan Tehan would all lose their seats.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/01/australia-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-campaign-policies-economy-inflation-cost-of-living-coalition-labor-ntwnfb
Trent, your analysis on MacNamara is brilliant. Thankyou.
Labor 1.10, Coalition 7.00 = implied probability of Labor govt = 87%
Labor minority govt 2.40, Labor majority govt 1.80 – I think this is first time ‘odds on’ (under 2.00)
I am not immune from beefing up an expectation. I beefed big time on the referendum because I so wanted it to be true.
But I am more thinking about betting markets on this one.
“Independents day”, 3rd May. Get rid of the duopoly. Same same uni party is not good for transparency or democracy. At least 25 in 25.
e.g.w. the vote you indicated is exactly the sort of Senate votes that are appropriate. Entirely different to the suggestions of some here to vote Greens with no preference to Labor or vote Labor with no preference to Greens.
Dandy Murray @ #165 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 10:27 am
Thanks
Dont you have a team who can write it for you? Post grads? Good looking undergrads?
Steve 777,
I was watching Forbidden Planet two nights ago when the analogy hit me that Trump is the logical projection of America’s collective unconscious… its Monster from the Id.
Couldn’t shake the association off.
In 100 days Trump has wrecked 80 years of post-WW2 effort, not just by America, but by the World.
I don’t so much care what he’s done to his own country. The American people allowed him to attack every aspect of their system: the courts, equal justice, immigration, the economy, the civil service to list just a few. It’s up to Americans to come to terms with the monster they have created.
What pisses me off is that we have to suffer as well. Reflexively, based almost entirely on Trump’s incoherent, almost meaningless words, our homegrown stock market and investment industry “geniuses” devalued the life savings and superannuation accounts of millions here… for little or no reason, other than some clichéd (and lazy) concept of Australia “catching cold if America sneezes”. Those investments have rallied somewhat, but not all the way. That pusses me off. I didn’t vote for Trump! And now he wants us to “kiss his ass”, and beg him to be lenient with us. Disgustingly, Dutton has offered to do just that (by the way, I’ll always wonder what part Rupert Murdoch – who recently visited Trump in the White House – played in the way Australia was treated).
Trump is clinging to an historical geopolitical model where Russia and America are the two dominant, unassailable superpowers, and China can be bullied into submission. But that’s out of date now. Russia has been expelled from the G7. It’s military is in tatters at the hands of the Ukrainians and its own slavish dedication to the outdated mass attack tactics of WW2. Its economy is practically non-existent. What there is of it is run by robber barons, Mafia capos who serve at the indulgence of their boss of bosses.
To some extent a complacent rest of the World has clung to the obsolete Trump model as well. But the awakening is coming. Eastern European countries are terrified that Russia might invade Europe. The more likely scenario is that Russia is so weakened, it couldn’t invade a kindergarten playground. Yet Trump treats them as if they are still the superpower they were in the 1970s and 80s, his New York property developer heyday.
The whole of America is about to learn the lesson that the rest of us are catching onto: America’s best days are gone; its Constitution is a tattered piece of paper, a historical curiosity rendered meaningless by corrupt judges who rewrite it – or refuse to enforce it – at their religious or politial whim. It economy has been hijacked by a kleptocracy of technospivs and vulgar snake oil salesmen who never gave any sucker an even break.
Its forbidden planet is disintegrating. All Americans can do now is to rage and try to throw their weight about one last demented time. But the World does not – can not afford to – trust them or their leaders anymore.
In his own perverted way, Trump has done us all a favour.
I would like to see that combined primary vote for the LNP and the ALP fall below 50 percent. Both parties have served the Australian people poorly during the past fifty years. You have to go back to the Whitlam Government to find a government that was truly on the people’s side.
leftieBrawler is only one seat out from his buoyant prediction with that YouGov poll.
If Labor pick up Braddon there’ll be a few factors. I’ve been quietly bullish on it now for a while.
Firstly, it’s just a hard seat to hold, very variable historically. The incumbent has retired, and the LNP candidate got caught out with a fake hardship story when he owns 10 properties worth $5m.
But behind the scenes is a story no one will know. The state Labor LOTO has a northern seats strategy made of separating in the minds of the state voters of that Labor means Greens. And has also spent an inordinate amount of time in Braddon pressing the flesh, being present at branches, being visible in the community.
If Labor pick up Braddon at the federal level, that may translate to 1 extra seat in the 7 MP seat at the state level. It is the only pathway back to state government for Labor, to pick up seats in the north.
Bushfire Bill at 9:29. Your post perfectly captures my thoughts.
Mostly, I’m going
ALP 81
GRN 4
IND 16
LNP 50
As far as Newspoll, AEF’s regular forecast seems to have seats as gov 76 to 80s, opp 57 to 40s, crossbenchers 6 to 20s …
I’m sorry for starting the 83 seat movement.
It now appears yougov has gotten caught up and away in it with 84
Nicholas, by almost every measure accepted by the OECD Australia is one of the most successful nations on the entire planet. That directly translates to quality of life at all levels of society.
“ Nicholas says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:03 am
I would like to see that combined primary vote for the LNP and the ALP fall below 50 percent. Both parties have served the Australian people poorly during the past fifty years. You have to go back to the Whitlam Government to find a government that was truly on the people’s side.”
______
I knew Whitlam. I worked for him. He was my friend.
He would be turning in his grave reading your stupid post. I can imagine his response, “the fucking trots, comrade! They make Cairns seem respectable”.
At the end of the day I think you are just a frustrated petite bourgeoise from the middle burbs of Brisvegas who is simply a paid up member of the Anti-Labor Party. May as well be Dutton.
A lovely picture. My modest bet, placed at 11 am on 26 Feb, at $2.60 for a Labor Prime Minister, can be cashed out now, by clicking the ‘Cash Out’ button, for a profit of 125%. I’ll wait.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:21 am
So, it appears that the LNP’s mid campaign tactic of letting the Red Steer loose in the outer burbs and regions may be a huge wildcard in individual seat outcomes – potentially putting seats like Hunter at risk to ON and perhaps (or so it is hoped) picking up seats like Werriwa on the bounce.
This Baldrick like ‘cunning plan’ will however likely yield far more ON and other cooker senators – probably at the expense of the LNP more often than at the expense of Labor or the Greens.
All of this leads to a further enshittening of the Australian politics
”
LNP are biggest enshitters of Australian politics. Dutton is so stupid that he, like Trump who gave permission structure to MAGAs, has given permission structure to far-right political parties to win this election.
Due to which now I predict with heavy heart that for the first time PHON will win 6 senators in this election. It may or may not be at expense of LNP but I am almost certain some that ALP and minor progressive parties may lose Senate seats in the crossfire.
Hmmm this headline news.com now ‘‘Can’t!’: Gen Z men set to shock Australia’.Not good news for labor.
Then yesterday dominated by one nation prefs,and today the voice a howler getting spread right across Australia.
Lots of votes swinging coalitions way above.Another good week after last weeks good week.
Trump won in a landslide so Dutton comparisons by labor interesting!
Rachel Maddow is again showing in her show how much ‘Fascism’ has progressed in America.
100 days of incompetence, cruelty, corruption and oppression after Trump took oath as Trump 2.0
I’m cautiously optimistic of 76 seats. That’s enough and any more will be a bonus.
What I’m more sure of is if it becomes apparent that Labor has a majority the line of questioning from ABC people to labor people will be “why didn’t you do better?”
Nobody will ask liberal people “why have you you done so badly?”
I got a Trumpet SMS calling for a 15% iron ore license fee. To fund everything
I’ll guess that like me, Clive does not own an iron ore mine.
Yabba
With winnings of $2.435 million, you can shout the drinks at the next lunch.
Team Katich @ #64 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:50 am
On the NSW Central Coast, I measured 315 mm in April, almost all in the last ten days. That’s about 1/3 rd of ‘average’ annual.
@Trent:
“@Mexicanbeemer, I just had a look at that YouGov MRP for Macnamara and what really doesn’t make sense at all is the minor party vote.
It has – 5.1% Other, 5.0% One Nation, 4.7% IND.
In Macnamara there are only 3 candidates other than ALP, LIB & GRN so that would imply a 5.1% Libertarian vote, 5% One Nation, and 4.7% for a cooker IND (ex-doctor who lost his license for sexual assault) who only got 2% with the donkey vote in 2022 but is last on the ballot this time.
Those numbers are complete rubbish, the ‘Other’ vote won’t be more than 6% between the 3 of them so you can pretty much add another 9% to the combined primary votes of ALP, LIB & GRN.”
I 100% concur – that is rubbish numbers especially for the Ind. The MRP weakness with “others” strikes here. They have been able to correct for serious Teal candidates thanks to last time’s numbers – well, we shall see if they have done it correctly, but they have clearly made changes from last time to try and correct for the Teals- but there’s still something of an “all others are created equal” vibe here.
Last time around there was a combined 9.5% or so for the INDs with an Animal Justice candidate in the mix who isn’t there this time.
Where I differ from your analysis Trent is this – Benson Saulo isn’t a great candidate either. First there was the reveal he’d been a Green which is kinda relevant in this particular race. Now there is a (albeit late) reveal he’d also been with Labor! There has been a huge push at Liberal Jewish voters to vote for Josh Burns to keep the Greens out which I keep hearing is doing very well. I don’t think Saulo is going to do significantly better than their previous candidate relative to the state swing.
The key factor of the MRP is it shows the Greens taking a dive on primary in Macnamara and that’s without the Animal Justice candidate who took a couple of points of them in 2022 so it’s actually even worse than it looks. The overly high Others vote for Libertarians/One Nation isn’t going to correct to them, it’ll correct to the Libs mostly. Or who knows, maybe YouGov is right and this represents Liberal voters unhappy with Benson Saulo and parking their first pref elsewhere.
This would pretty clearly end up in a Labor vs Coalition final 2 that Burns would win in a canter as, indeed, the MRP shows (58-42) as off that primary and with no left wing others at all this time there is a distinct lack of preferences available to get the Greens up over either Labor or the Coalition for 2nd.
This DOES correlate with what I hear on the ground, albeit stuff you hear on the ground is usually either overly optimistic or “we’re dead Jim”.
Hey Andrew E. Regarding submarines why can’t a future fleet be completely autonomous and unmanned?
Therefore theoretically being able to stay submerged indefinitely ?.
No doubt they’ve looked at this however it would be interesting to know why it can’t be done
”
pied pipersays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:15 am
Hmmm this headline news.com now ‘‘Can’t!’: Gen Z men set to shock Australia’.Not good news for labor.
Then yesterday dominated by one nation prefs,and today the voice a howler getting spread right across Australia.
Lots of votes swinging coalitions way above.Another good week after last weeks good week.
”
Oooh! ALP is in trouble as PP says
Watch the four “F” seats on election night. Franklin, Flinders, Forrest and Fremantle. Gain of four seats to independents. Two each from the duopoly. At least 25 in 25.
“• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.”
I love this for both majors but especially the lnp – they have done nothing for our nations youth and will pay the price.
lefty_e says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:08 am
Mostly, I’m going
ALP 81
GRN 4
IND 16
LNP 50
This equals 151. The new House will have 150.
Mostly Interested
It is the only pathway back to state government for Labor, to pick up seats in the north.
*****************
Then why in the living fuck are they still voting in lockstep with Rockliff on the bloody stadium?