First up, two other things to note. There is another new post below this one exploring the minutiae of pollsters’ preference flows, a subject of great relevance to much of what is discussed below. The other is the Poll Bludger’s pre-election donation drive. On with the show:
• RedBridge Group has a national poll that gives the Coalition its poorest result yet, recording both major parties at 34% of the primary vote – up one in Labor’s case and down two for the Coalition ” with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up a point to 8%. This includes a timely two-party preferred result based on respondent-allocated preferences, in addition to the usual one based on 2022 election flows (a matter explored in very great depth in the aforementioned other post), both of which come in at 53-47 in favour of Labor. This is despite 73% out of the 7% One Nation vote (with a duly very small sample) going to the Coalition, compared with 64.3% in 2022. The report notes that that this improvement in isolation would have added 0.8% to the Coalition’s two-party result. Small-sample state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales and 56-44 in Victoria, and trailing 57-43 in Queensland. The accompanying report features voluminous further detail on factors influencing vote choice. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1011.
• A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 10%. Anthony Albanese is credited with a 47-35 lead over Peter Dutton on preferred prime minister. Among other things, the full report contains breakdowns for the four largest states along with useful (albeit small sample) age-by-gender result, one finding being that the Greens are twice as strong among young women as men. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 2000.
• DemosAU has two polls offering combined results of selected marginal seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and has a large sample national poll on the way), the former of which puts meat on the bones of suggestions One Nation is surging in seats such as those covered, namely Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke. Labor is down 7.2% on the primary vote to 32%, of which the Liberals yield only a one-point gain to 31%, while One Nation is up 5.6% to 10%. The Greens are up 3.2% to 13%, and Trumpet of Patriots manages only 2%, down 4.5% on the United Australia Party result. Labor holds a two-party lead of 53-47 based on 2022 election flows: if the Liberals really are doing as well out of One Nation as some have suggested, that may reduce to 51-49. The poll was conducted April 13 to 22 from a sample of 924.
• The DemosAU Sydney marginal seats poll covers Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa and is much better for Labor, who are credited with a two-party lead of 56-44, a swing in their favour of 1.3%. Both major parties are well down on the primary vote, Labor to 36% (down 4.3%) and Liberal to 28% (down 7.4%), mostly accounted for by 11% for independents (there are four independent candidates across the three seats, none particularly high profile, compared with only one last time), with the Greens on 10% (up 1.4%). All three seats are highly multicultural and duly weak for One Nation. The poll was conducted April 13 to 27 from a sample of 905.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review offers an overview based on the views of “multiple campaign strategists and frontbenchers from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens”. Most of the assessments offered are conventional wisdom, though Labor appears hopeful about Griffith and Bonner along with more fancied Brisbane; a Liberal source goes so far as to say they “think we will win Werriwa”; Labor is rated a better chance of retaining Chisholm than was earlier thought; both sides expect Labor to hold Tangney, and give Labor a “slight edge” in Lyons; and Liberals are pessimistic about Bradfield, though “early anxiety over independents in Wannon and Forrest had faded”. A Liberal source did not concur with a view related by “senior Labor and Liberal sources” in The Advertiser that Sturt was “increasingly likely to fall to Labor”. The West Australian reports a Liberal source saying Curtin is 51-49, without revealing in whose favour.
• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.
Watching the racing on TV yesterday there was a proliferation of ads from the current MP for Wannon pushing taking $50,000- from your superannuation to buy a house and cheaper petrol
Plus, of course, crime
Draw your own conclusions
@Fess – “This should disqualify them from government funding.”
But but but the Australia Institute and our Greens friends told me Labor Bad for not completely undoing laws against charities politically campaigning!
They couldn’t complain about this intervention if it was all fully legal, could they?
However, I doubt anything will come out of it as they seem to get away with this every election due to how powerful and influential they are.
The Liberal party will blame Trump for the election result and keep Dutton as leader. What choices do they have?
‘Moderate’ Liberal Leadershit candidates, especially from Victoria, have less than a snowflakes chance in the Simpson of becoming federal leader as the party’s ‘moderate’ base collapses.
Dutton will be replaced – at some stage – with another hard right punching down cooker. Probably Hastie from WA (if he holds on to his seat) or Eleventy Gus from NSW.
Penny Wong come on down!
What is the one thing that can turbo charge the legions of undecided voters to swing to One Nation and libs etc ?
One nation was already going well before this statement was revealed .Red meat!
Well it’s the main story in West Australian today etc .”Return of the voice”
The Voice will happen says Wong!
Queenslanders will not like it.
Wow Thankyou !
Albo was just asked about it.
Note that the YouGov MRP has Labor taking Bonner (and Banks, Sturt, Moore and Deakin). Bonner again.
Wong can’t get it right the biggest mistake for the ALP in the campaign.
I think we all agree Penny Wong should have played a straight bat to the Voice question, not because she said it was policy or anything, but because she ought to know the dishonest nasty scares that the right wing media and their supporters could utilise it for. Yes, probably the biggest mistake of the campaign on Labor’s side Holden by reason of there not being many others.
UnAustralian: Angus Promises To Release The Coalition’s Costings As Soon As He Finds The Napkin He Wrote Them On.
‘Maude Lynne says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:11 am
More on the Catholic School hierarchy sending letters to their parents “(mis)informing” them about political party differences re funding of schools.
Never mind that it is illegal for registered charities to campaign.
This podcast starts with a look at this issue (you can skip the first minute or so of Van talking about her dog if you wish:).
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-week-on-wednesday-with-van-badham-ben-davison/id1528299411?i=1000705542795‘
===============
The Catholic Church operates through various legal structures not all of which are registered entities. So that is a furphy.
The need to do a royal commission into the ‘charity’ sector is a different but important issue.
There are around 2.8 million children in catholic primary schools.
The vast majority of catholic schools have more or less the same resourcing as the vast majority of public schools.
Parents, often not catholic or if catholic not observant, like the perceived values of modern catholic schools – especially the more disciplined approaches to behaviour and to teaching approaches.
The huge political mistake progressives make is to conflate wealthy catholic secondary schools with the other 99% of catholic schools. This is, IMO, a progressive sucker punch. Reflexive progressive religion hating is, in this case, self defeating.
Catholic leadership is quite right to point out that substantial elements of the Greens membership would like to defund catholic schools as a matter of Trot ideology, regardless of the actual policy documents of the Greens show.
Note: if my wishes were fishes there would be no private system in Australia at all.
Pied Piper
It’s over majority of the non lib/nats voters are not going to switch to lib/nats
Polling Now Vs Just Before the May 2021 Local Elections (When the seats up tomorrow were last up) via electionmaps UK:
RFM: 25.4% (+23.7)
LAB: 23.9% (-12.1)
CON: 21.3% (-20.1)
LDM: 13.7% (+6.4)
GRN: 8.9% (+3.7)
A couple of decades ago there was much discussion about the imminent demise of the Nats.
Instead, the Nats have managed to persuade the Liberals to do a reverse ferret across a range of policy fronts, and have thus captured the Liberals.
Hh re YouGov MRP most likely prediction….
I hope they are right. The LNP needs to be punished at the polls again and again before they either move back toward the centre or simply collapse.
Unfortunately, I don’t see them losing badly enough and the Temu Trump shtick is baked in LNP DNA now.
Will Labor do a 48 hour social media blitz following the release of the Coalitions ‘costings’ today that will confirm the scrapping of HECS debt relief, the axing of free TAFE programs, the winding back of Labor’s housing programs, social spending and welfare cuts?
Redbridge has already identified huge shifts in the actual campaign over the past 4 weeks amongst key demographics – EXACTLY the same demographics will will be hit the hardest by these sort of cuts.
The scare campaign writes itself (and is factual – based on farts coming out of Gus’s & Jane Hume’s own gobs) and I reckon a $50 million spend on META, Google Platforms and TicTok between midday today and Saturday will ‘seal the deal’ with these demographics: one thing that the apparent shift to Labor over the past 2 months has demonstrated is this – these people ARE actually listening and are engaged (something that has clearly not been the case over the previous 18 months since The Voice) – and such a blitz will potentially yield BIG dividends
The weather is stuck. It is May, and I’m watering.
After 100 days, Trump has destroyed Trumpism | Sidney Blumenthal
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/01/polls-redbridge-group-spectre-strategy-demosau-sydney-and-melbourne-marginals-open-thread/
Trump… “He who saves his country does not violate any law,” Trump declared three weeks into his new administration…… Nixon…. “When the president does it, that means it is not illegal. Actions which otherwise would be unconstitutional could become lawful if undertaken for the purpose of preserving the Constitution and the nation. This nation was torn apart in an ideological way by the war in Vietnam, as much as the Civil War tore apart the nation when Lincoln was president.”…… The GOP has always had a God like fixation on the powers of the President.. closely follows by the Democrats fixation by the god like powers of the President.. Followed by the American peoples……
Sorry forgot to include.. followed by SCOUTUS’s fixation…
Damo
I am highly curious – what is it about the Coalition that still gets you to say you support them? Not what is wrong with others, but what out of the Coalition’s policies, you like still that keeps you in their square?
I’m up for understanding more.
What are the penalties for catholic schools partisan campaigning?
If it’s nothing, why would they stop?
If QLD does a Western Australia and starts to turn against the federal QLD LNP, Peter Dutton is definitely gone as leader of the federal liberal party , no matter whether he hangs onto the seat of Dickson or not
Western Australia and QLD , were the only 2 strongest states which favour the federal lib/nats
Western Australia turn against the federal lib/nats at the 2022 federal election
“ Polling Now Vs Just Before the May 2021 Local Elections (When the seats up tomorrow were last up) via electionmaps UK:
RFM: 25.4% (+23.7)
LAB: 23.9% (-12.1)
CON: 21.3% (-20.1)
LDM: 13.7% (+6.4)
GRN: 8.9% (+3.7)‘
——
What will be fascinating to find out from the actual results is just how much of that +23% gain to reform is coming from Labour (which has dropped 12% in the polls since the 2021 LG elections) and how much has come from the Tories (who have dropped 20%). The gains to the LDP (+6) and Greens (+4) seem to broadly equate to the drop in Labour’s vote and the gains to Reform appear to broadly equate to the collapse in the Tory vote.
Of course, any ‘protest’ vote – shifting towards other ‘progressives’ will hurt Labour badly in the UK’s first past the post voting system & this could have implications for the 2029 National Election (but a lot of water is still to flow under the bridge before then) but I’m thinking that giving Reform 4 years to royally fuck up governance at a local government level can only help Labour’s long term cause at a national level.
It’s actually the Nats who could be in the box seat in Hunter, Andrew_Earlwood:
One Nation candidate poised to help Coalition in handshake deal has railed against climate science and Covid ‘little Hitlers’ Exclusive: Stuart Bonds could hand the Nationals the seat of Hunter thanks to a preference deal and ‘last minute’ change to how-to-vote cards
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/one-nation-candidate-poised-to-help-coalition-in-handshake-deal-has-railed-against-climate-science-and-covid-little-hitlers
pithicus says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:54 am
What are the penalties for catholic schools partisan campaigning?
If it’s nothing, why would they stop?
They will say it’s not political because its related to Education.. in any event take a look at sprockets post of voter breakdown graph..
Those that “self identify” as Protestant or Catholic overwhelmingly vote for the fascists .. their letter is preaching to the converted. Then there are lots of catholics that take the pill & vote Labor
“ C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:57 am
It’s actually the Nats who could be in the box seat in Hunter, Andrew_Earlwood:
One Nation candidate poised to help Coalition in handshake deal has railed against climate science and Covid ‘little Hitlers’ Exclusive: Stuart Bonds could hand the Nationals the seat of Hunter thanks to a preference deal and ‘last minute’ change to how-to-vote cards
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/one-nation-candidate-poised-to-help-coalition-in-handshake-deal-has-railed-against-climate-science-and-covid-little-hitlers”
____
I’m aware of that article, and clearly it accords with ‘the tactic’, however Bonds has the profile in that electorate that is more likely than not to take him over the top and past the Nats candidate. This is why I referred to the tactic of letting the Red Steer loose. T’is a ‘cunning plan’ that the arsonists in the LNP leadership group can’t control.
Haha the seething wojaks at the West Australian Cooker News have decided to go down in a blizzard of desperate, impotent, sweet and delicious tears. Lol. lmao even.
Seats projected to change hands, by new yougov, and margin where final 2, a lot of close ones in there.
Banks: Coalition(49.4) -> Labor (50.6)
Bonner: Coalition (48.8) ->Labor (52.2)
Braddon: Coalition (45.8) -> Labor (54.2)
Bradfield: Coalition -> Independent
Brisbane: Green -> Labor
Calare: Coalition -> Independent
Cowper: Coalition -> Independent
Menzies: Coalition (49.7) -> Labor (50.3)
Moore: Coalition (50.3) -> Labor (49.7)
Sturt: Coalition (49.3) -> Labor (50.7)
Wannon: Coalition (38.1) -> Independent (61.9)
Apparently this just dropped in the hateful guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/01/australia-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-campaign-policies-economy-inflation-cost-of-living-coalition-labor-ntwnfb
Andrew_Earlwood @ #53 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:38 am
Probably. I was only trying to be helpful. Me and Niki. 😉
Reading William’s piece he seems very positive not only with his analysis bit his tone that it looks seriously bad for the LNP he seems very confident in his assessment basicslly stating that their is bugger all in the ON votrs returning strongly as the Pollsters used respondent allocated preferences. If that is the case their is only two outcomes one the ALP do as well as he has researched or this sites credibility is shot. We will know in three days
ALP win traded over $9 on Betfair this morning Steelydan
bug1 @ #74 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:10 am
Moore is a 3-way tussle with former MP for Moore, Ian Goodenough. Where his preferences go could be decisive for Labor here.
Have we had the ‘wish HTV cards were banned’ discussion?
ALP in Mayo have Sharkie above Greens even tho she says she’ll speak to Dutton first in minority government discussions (Sharkie has no preferences on her card).
Seems a lot of time, effort, handwringing, deal making and paper goes into this. I know it can make a tiny difference and small differences run campaigns…. But… FMD, serenity now!
Grime @ #76 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:11 am
Labor to win clear majority, Coalition in trouble: YouGov poll
“Federal Labor will govern with a clear majority while the Coalition will suffer its worst election result in 80 years, if YouGov’s final poll before the election comes true,” AAP reports.
Collated the last few days of predictions. Sorry if I’ve missed a few. I have left some out who have given ranges of seats or just TTP and also a few sums were wrong, so I’ve just dumped that into the other’s column.
The red lines indicate Majority Labor/Monitory Labor and Minority LNP.
I’ll post the final one tomorrow night.
Political parties NEVER learn the right lessons from a loss (just ask Labor)
The LNP will decide they are not right wing enough
Nothing surer
The cartoon Alpha posted is the first time I’ve seen an analogy between McCarthy and Trump drawn. It’s most apt. McCarthy drank himself into an early grave. We’ve yet to see how history will judge Trump, but I don’t think it will be pretty.
Steelydan @ #78 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:42 am
Verballing much?
So Dutton’s vaunted visit to Kooyong was a closed visit to a party event at the Tower Hotel last night, not a public appearance. That place is basically covered in giant Liberal posters.
So really, he wasn’t visiting here to do anything beyond rewarding the Liberal donating faithful with a personal visitation while avoiding being sighted by swinging voters.
Sportsbet: Labor 1.08 Coalition 8.00
It’s trending away from Dutts.
“ Probably. I was only trying to be helpful. Me and Niki. ”
_____
Lols. Love it.
The World hasn’t lost faith in Trump. It’s lost faith in the American people who were collectively stupid enough to either elect him in the first place, or to support a corrupted system that allowed him to be elected. The fear is that even if they vote MAGA out at the next election, it – or a version of it, probably worse – will be lurking, ready to return the next time, worse than ever.
It’s not “the whims of whoever’s in office” as the well-meaning Tony Blinkin puts it in his Bulwark interview today.
It’s the whims of millions of proudly under-educated, celebrity culture-addicted bozos who think chanting “UUU! SSS! AAA!” and claiming God is on their side is sufficient justification for doing whatever they damn-well want to do, anywhere in the world. Trump only yesterday said he regarded himself as President of the World.
But it’s not just Trump. It’s the American people, and their malignant narcissism that increasingly sickens the rest of us. Even the Lefties over there are full of how wonderful the place is, how brilliant its Constitution, how hallowed its democracy… if only they could get rid of Trump, it would all be OK again. But it’s NOT just Trump.
America has become the Forbidden Planet and Trump is its “Monster from the Id”.
It’s disgusting to think that even some Australians see him as the way forward.
Morning all. Thanks for the excellent lead in articles William and the roundup Cat.
It looks like talk of PHON preferences and tightening polls earlier in the week was just talk. There has been no more variability in the polls than would be normal from random sampling and MOE. There is no sign Labor will do worse than 52/48, probably 53/47.
In that case, Niki Savva is correct. Dutton has had a shocker. He has ignored the cost of living crisis that got him a polling lead to chase nuclear power fantasies and culture wars. Now if the Liberals announce today the Coalition will not do the 20% payback of HECS debts they deserve the rejection they will get on Saturday.
Braddon: Coalition (45.8) -> Labor (54.2)
These numbers are bonkers.
Tempted to splurge 10 bucks on alp @4.25
The vast majority of private schools are actually overfunded if you use the Gonski-driven Schooling Resource Standard minimums (which was the whole idea). In a bizarre situation it is state schools that fall short of 100 per cent.
The state school situation will change (though too slowly) if Labor is re-elected as the proposed new commonwealth/states joint funding arrangements would eventually take state schools to 100 per cent funding.
In a politically sensible strategy the Australian Education Union, in a campaign stretching back over a decade, has not made this a culture war issue and has focused on getting state school funding to its proper level not calling for reductions in private school funding.
Peter Dutton has refused to confirm he would implement the new agreement. Instead he’s taken up the language of Pauline Hanson and talks of linking all funding to schools being checked that they are sticking to approved messaging and not “indoctrinating” students. Oh, and the Trump inspired dismantling of the federal Department of Education.
Quite how he would apply that to, for example, religious schools has not been made clear. Hanson’s version, which goes back over five years, specifically targets any education on climate science or gender. In the modern era one would assume any talk of genocide would be seen as indoctrination so teaching about the holocaust would be a no-no. We would be one step from all-out book banning.
Simply put if you vote for the coalition or their right wing associates then you support underfunding of state schools, removal of free and low fee TAFE courses and no 20% reduction in HECs debts. You also back the type of political policing of the state education system that could see a complaint from a parent having the potential to see a school’s funding cut or removed.
“ Steelydan says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:12 am
Reading William’s piece he seems very positive not only with his analysis bit his tone that it looks seriously bad for the LNP he seems very confident in his assessment basicslly stating that their is bugger all in the ON votrs returning strongly as the Pollsters used respondent allocated preferences. If that is the case their is only two outcomes one the ALP do as well as he has researched or this sites credibility is shot. We will know in three days”
______
Not only is this take an egregious example of verballing (as TK suggests) but the comment also belongs on the seperate thread dedicated by our Lord God-Emperor of Bludger to this very topic. The comment is also stupid and wrong: on par with most of the comments from Steam-phallus.
Consider all of the previous Liberal PMs and their electorates. All bar Cook and Wannon are either Labor or Teal now, with Wannon a good chance to go Teal. Sadly not much chance of Cook flipping but it will be a lovely outcome if Dutton becomes the first LO to lose their seat. Do you think st any stage they are going to get the message?
Menzies – Kooyong
Holt – Higgins
Gorton – Higgins
McMahon – Lowe (now Reid)
Fraser – Wannon
Howard – Bennelong
Abbott – Warringah
Turnbull – Wentworth
Morrison – Cook
Anyway, I have a proposal for Dutton. It’s clear he needs a circuit breaker here, so bear with me: he should offer Trump a knighthood!
Bushfire Bill says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:29 am
_____
It’s disgusting to think that America – even without Trump – is the way forward for Australia.
Does anyone have a link to the video of Albo on the BBQ tongs and he says wtte “We’ve got a cookup, they’ve got the cookers?”
Summary of margins from Yougov, Safe coalition seats are getting scarce, prob most Nats as well.
EDIT: some of their predictions are a bit strange or i have mangled the data.
Safe Labor 57
Likely Labor 16
Lean Labor 7
Tossup Labor 1
Safe Coalition 20
Likely Coalition 26
Tossup Coalition 3
Safe Independent 10
Likely Independent 3
Lean Independent 1
Safe Greens 1
Likely Greens 2
Lean Greens 1
Safe Other 2
Totals 150, 1 missing from downloaded data.
mostly interested
Labor 73 Coalition 57 Greens 4 Independents 16
2PP Labor 51.6 Coalition 48.4