First up, two other things to note. There is another new post below this one exploring the minutiae of pollsters’ preference flows, a subject of great relevance to much of what is discussed below. The other is the Poll Bludger’s pre-election donation drive. On with the show:
• RedBridge Group has a national poll that gives the Coalition its poorest result yet, recording both major parties at 34% of the primary vote – up one in Labor’s case and down two for the Coalition ” with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up a point to 8%. This includes a timely two-party preferred result based on respondent-allocated preferences, in addition to the usual one based on 2022 election flows (a matter explored in very great depth in the aforementioned other post), both of which come in at 53-47 in favour of Labor. This is despite 73% out of the 7% One Nation vote (with a duly very small sample) going to the Coalition, compared with 64.3% in 2022. The report notes that that this improvement in isolation would have added 0.8% to the Coalition’s two-party result. Small-sample state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales and 56-44 in Victoria, and trailing 57-43 in Queensland. The accompanying report features voluminous further detail on factors influencing vote choice. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1011.
• A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 10%. Anthony Albanese is credited with a 47-35 lead over Peter Dutton on preferred prime minister. Among other things, the full report contains breakdowns for the four largest states along with useful (albeit small sample) age-by-gender result, one finding being that the Greens are twice as strong among young women as men. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 2000.
• DemosAU has two polls offering combined results of selected marginal seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and has a large sample national poll on the way), the former of which puts meat on the bones of suggestions One Nation is surging in seats such as those covered, namely Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke. Labor is down 7.2% on the primary vote to 32%, of which the Liberals yield only a one-point gain to 31%, while One Nation is up 5.6% to 10%. The Greens are up 3.2% to 13%, and Trumpet of Patriots manages only 2%, down 4.5% on the United Australia Party result. Labor holds a two-party lead of 53-47 based on 2022 election flows: if the Liberals really are doing as well out of One Nation as some have suggested, that may reduce to 51-49. The poll was conducted April 13 to 22 from a sample of 924.
• The DemosAU Sydney marginal seats poll covers Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa and is much better for Labor, who are credited with a two-party lead of 56-44, a swing in their favour of 1.3%. Both major parties are well down on the primary vote, Labor to 36% (down 4.3%) and Liberal to 28% (down 7.4%), mostly accounted for by 11% for independents (there are four independent candidates across the three seats, none particularly high profile, compared with only one last time), with the Greens on 10% (up 1.4%). All three seats are highly multicultural and duly weak for One Nation. The poll was conducted April 13 to 27 from a sample of 905.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review offers an overview based on the views of “multiple campaign strategists and frontbenchers from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens”. Most of the assessments offered are conventional wisdom, though Labor appears hopeful about Griffith and Bonner along with more fancied Brisbane; a Liberal source goes so far as to say they “think we will win Werriwa”; Labor is rated a better chance of retaining Chisholm than was earlier thought; both sides expect Labor to hold Tangney, and give Labor a “slight edge” in Lyons; and Liberals are pessimistic about Bradfield, though “early anxiety over independents in Wannon and Forrest had faded”. A Liberal source did not concur with a view related by “senior Labor and Liberal sources” in The Advertiser that Sturt was “increasingly likely to fall to Labor”. The West Australian reports a Liberal source saying Curtin is 51-49, without revealing in whose favour.
• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.
Keeping up a cracking pace William.
Spence @ #1 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 4:43 am
That’s what I thought! 😯
As a Coalition supporter I am going to give my final prediction which is not pretty for our side ALP 2PP 53/47 Alp 82 Coal 49 Ind/Oth 16 Grn 3. I think the final percentages of the combine Alp/Coal vote will struggle to make 60% with a high ON vote plus high Ind. Dutton was never going to be PM especially just with a 1 term government. They need someone new from left field that is more moderate which will not make Sky News happy.
Perhaps the Libs anxiety is easing in Wannon is because they are starting to accept it as a loss !
Or if they aren’t anxious, they can stop with the double anti-dyson mail outs every second day.
But the report about easing anxiety is via AFR, who have failed harder than any other media outlet this campaign.
“Damosays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 5:37 am
As a Coalition supporter I am going to give my final prediction which is not pretty for our side ALP 2PP 53/47 Alp 82 Coal 49 Ind/Oth 16 Grn 3. I think the final percentages of the combine Alp/Coal vote will struggle to make 60% with a high ON vote plus high Ind. Dutton was never going to be PM especially just with a 1 term government. They need someone new from left field that is more moderate which will not make Sky News happy.”
This will be their problem surely…..they need a moderate to win but how can a moderate keep the show together when they will be getting mauled by the doyens of sky news after dark?
Damo,
I reckon the Coalition need a solid Victorian MP to lead them, like Keith Wolahan. Patrician, ex-military, Moderate. It’s the special sauce for Moderate Liberal voters to come back to the fold. 🙂
Damo, he’s sitting in his harbour mansion watching this all unfold and is certainly “left field” amongst the contemporary Liberal Party and the Coalition.
Aunty Pauline having a laugh as well.
The Coalition release their election costings today – looking forward to the media analysing this thoroughly, which of course most of them won’t do, nor will they call out Dutton for avoiding appearances at the National Press Club or on the ABC.
I suspect too that the much vaunted preference deal with One Nation will backfire on the Liberals in those Teal seats like Wentworth and Kooyong.
Another point about One Nation – does Pauline have enough volunteers to man those polling booths?
Surely the Liberals will release their costings after lunch on Saturday as per usual, thus ensuring plenty of time for them to be analysed prior to polls closing.
The first question the press should ask…” why do the Liberals always leave it so late.. always.. “
Form last night, I reckon the LNP right holds 2019 to their hearts deep in the night. It warms them and convinces them that the right can win an election.
But there’s zero insight or reflection that the intervening 6 years has seen a fundamental shift in electoral behaviour in seats in the right.
The very possibility that PHON might be in with a chance at a lower house seat reflects the UK Reform experience, whilst we’ve seen in front of our eyes the loss of the centre right seats.
I don’t yet see a path back for the LNP, a classic positive feedback loop is occurring in real time, self reinforcing through a selection process that is like a snake eating it’s tail. Oddly the Nationals might be the source of Liberal party reform, but multiple elections of pain lie in front of them.
Yes Labor faces the same issue on their left, but a threat on their right has yet to emerge, maybe if Teals start to take the centre left seats.
A new party has yet to form in the chaos, and if Teals never coalesce into an organised unit I foresee difficulty in governing Australia as we head into the 2030s.
#weatheronPB
Unhurried colour,
slowly sets into the sky.
Cool and blue, I think.
So using the Exclusive Brethren was Dutton’s idea, according to Savva’s sources.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-has-led-one-of-the-worst-election-campaigns-in-living-memory-20250429-p5lv7q.html
Murdoch media (Daily Telegraph online) has a couple of very downbeat articles (for the Liberals) this morning – including a detailed dump on how Dutton has campaigned and the internal ructions. Lots of leaking – it looks like the fight over the spoils of defeat has started already.
He has bollocks… great work.. will he work again?
https://youtu.be/CTv7WiYmBec
Will he be deported?
This should disqualify them from government funding.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/catholic-schools-election-intervention-in-key-seats-sparks-independents-ire-20250430-p5lvfp.html
Good to see that Malcom Turnbull is enjoying his retirement…
Ripping into conservatives gives him great joy
This breakdown of the Redbridge is interesting
And Sportsbet has had major shifts overnight..with big plunge of Labor Majority.
Type of Government Formed
Settled on the type of government formed at the next nationwide Federal Election per seats won in the Aus House of Reps. Majority counted as a party who wins 76+ seats, minority being 75 or fewer seats from party which supplies the PM.
Labor Minority 2.40
Labor Majority 1.83
Coalition Minority 9.50
Coalition Majority 23.00
Any Other 151.00
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 6:57 am
What is it with self identifying Protestants?
Very tempting!
Sceptic
I assume that Pentecostals are included in the self-identifying Protestants. They certainly are highly influenced by the US doctrines.
Perhaps, like their US bretheren, they think Dutton is another King Cyrus or King Jehu – anointed by God to come and clear up our sinful behaviour?
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/20/nx-s1-5247691/some-religious-leaders-liken-trump-to-biblical-figures-the-comparison-concerns-others
Rural other vote stands out, would have been more useful if they separated out PHON.
Also a point on PHON manning booths, it’s much harder in rural seats, where booth coverage is triaged even by the majors.
State breakdowns look a bit out of whack.
YouGov https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
Primary votes
Labor 31.4%
Lib/nats 31.1%
seats
Labor 84
Lib/nats 47
Greens 3
Ind 14
others 2
Turns out even the ‘world’s coolest dictator’ has his doubts about some of those deportees now in his prison.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/us/politics/trump-deportations-venezuela-el-salvador.html
Sorry to say but MI @6:17 am is going bit overboard with his analysis of LNP troubles ahead. I think that analysis is applicable if LNP loses badly. Till that time I will certainly hold my horses.
Updated YouGov MRP is up, projects Labor 84
Bonner as Labor GAIN
CLP Costings.
I can’t understand why so many people are getting uptight about the lack of CLP Policy costings.
I’m still waiting for something more expansive policy than the nuclear unicorns.
I’m waiting to see actual policies.
Oh, silly me, that misunderstood Mr Dutton said, “Don’t worry about policy detail. We’ll tell you after the election”.
My prediction:
ALP 80 – 84 seats.
CLP:55 – 49 seats.
Great to see UpNorth getting amongst it last night! Looking forward to catching up sometime in Sydney. Bangkok is a little far but you never know.
Labor almost best case
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnC95mhTdog
World News & Politics Patrol:
RFK Jr. Goes Full Tinfoil, Pledges to Stop Chemtrails in Latest Dr. Phil Interview: https://gizmodo.com/rfk-jr-goes-full-tinfoil-pledges-to-stop-chemtrails-in-latest-dr-phil-interview-2000596357
Democrats Win Landslide in Safe Iowa Seat, Claim ‘Rebuke of Trump’: https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-win-landslide-safe-iowa-seat-claim-rebuke-trump-2066050
Trump Melts Down at Being Fact-Checked Right to His Face: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-melts-down-at-being-fact-checked-on-deported-maryland-dad-kilmar-abrego-garcia/
Trump and His Cabinet Ditch Reality to Blame Biden for Everything: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-and-his-cabinet-ditch-reality-to-blame-biden-for-everything/
House Republicans block vote to probe Hegseth’s Signal use: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/29/politics/house-republicans-rules-block-hegseth-probe/index.html
Elizabeth Warren asks Jeff Bezos if he got any favors for his ‘subservience’ to Trump: https://www.theverge.com/news/658829/elizabeth-warren-jeff-bezos-amazon-trump-tariffs
US and Ukraine Sign Agreement on Access to Natural Resources: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/us-and-ukraine-sign-agreement-on-access-to-natural-resources?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc0NjA0OTA1NCwiZXhwIjoxNzQ2NjUzODU0LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTVkpWSlVUMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJFOURENjUxQUFBN0Q0MEFFQUU2QzRGMTY2Q0JCRkJFNCJ9.uTY0ajryjUJcYrA1m8Dhq5qjqy0BVupc0FlD71rOE04
Ukrainians Declare Victory in Battle of Pokrovsk: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-victory-pokrovsk-donetsk-russia-2065951
Zelensky warns Russia is ‘preparing something’ in Belarus under guise of military drills: https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-warns-russia-may-prepare-something-in-belarus-under-guise-of-drills/
Poland promises “appropriate response” to Russian military exercises in Belarus: https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/04/30/poland-promises-appropriate-response-to-russian-military-exercises-in-belarus/
Putin demands full control of 4 Ukrainian regions, stalling US ceasefire push: https://kyivindependent.com/putin-demands-full-control-of-4-ukrainian-regions-stalling-us-ceasefire-push-bloomberg-reports/
Pakistan claims it has ‘credible intelligence’ India will strike within 36 hours: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/04/29/asia/kashmir-pakistan-india-tension-military-intl-hnk
India closes airspace to Pakistan airlines as tensions rise: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-closes-airspace-pakistan-airlines-india-today-reports-2025-04-30/
Pakistani army accuses India of sponsoring terrorism, presents “irrefutable evidence”: https://english.news.cn/20250430/933c670f2bcc49d4ab81fb569b663cfb/c.html
U.S.-citizen family ‘traumatized’ after ICE raided their Oklahoma home in search of someone else: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/us-citizen-family-traumatized-ice-raid-rcna203700
U.S. economy contracts for first time since 2022 on imports surge: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/us-economy-contracts-for-first-time-since-2022-on-imports-surge
Reform UK Facebook Groups Are Full of Racist Far Right Posts and Islamophobic Conspiracy Theories: https://bylinetimes.com/2025/04/30/reform-uk-facebook-groups-are-full-of-racist-far-right-posts-and-islamophobic-conspiracy-theories/
‘We’ll burn Jews like Hitler did’, says BBC contributor in Gaza: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/26/well-burn-jews-like-hitler-did-says-bbcs-reporter-in-gaza/
Russia starts building bridge to connect with North Korea: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/04/30/7509867/
Mostly Interested
Thanks for running the book and drawing this long time lurker into a post.
Labor 72
Liberal 57
Green 4
Other 17
Labor 2PP 51
@c@t, Wolahan is not moderate. He’s moderate compared to Dutton, but that is a little like saying rain is wet. He, like Dutton, has zero charisma.
Of course the libs don’t want a moderate. They see the solution as going ever further to the right. They might pick a moderate front man, yes, man, but beneath the surface they will remain a mass of RWNJs.
YouGov’s final MRP model of the 2025 federal election shows that Australia will re-elect a Labor majority government, with the most likely result being Labor taking 84 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives. The most likely outcome for the Coalition sees it reduced to 47 seats – its lowest percentage of seats in the federal parliament since 1946.
The model projects a range of results, with Labor currently on course to secure between 76 and 85 seats, the Coalition taking 45-53, the Greens 2-5, Independents 13-16 and others between 2-4.
YouGov’s central projection – the most likely result – shows Labor on 84 seats, the Coalition on 47, Independents on 14, Greens on 3, KAP on 1 and the Centre Alliance 1. This would see Coalition experiencing a net loss of 11 seats from its 2022 result.
Both the Labor Party (31.4%) and the Coalition (31.1%) are projected to get lower primary votes than at the last election. The decline in the largest party’s vote shares have come as the number of voters supporting minor parties and independents has increased compared to 2022. At a national two-party-preferred level, the Labor Party is expected to win 52.9% to 47.1% for the Coalition, a swing of 0.7% from 2022 to the Labor Party.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/52098-labour-to-win-with-an-increased-majority-in-yougovs-final-mrp-of-the-election
Damo says:
…
They need someone new from left field that is more moderate which will not make Sky News happy.
…
The talking heads on sky news will complain Dutton didn’t go full Mega.
The religious nutters have taken over the party.
Can’t see it happening.
US Cartoons:
“YouGov’s final MRP model of the 2025 federal election shows that Australia will re-elect a Labor majority government, with the most likely result being Labor taking 84 seats”
===========================================
Nice.
The spud appears to firming favorite in dickson @1.38 with alp now 3.35.
That latest Yougov has Wannon out to 62% to Ind, 38% to Lib, 15.8% swing.
2 polls now predicting Tehan to lose by a margin greater than the MOE, i can also justify a significant swing based on my 20 years of local election experience down here.
Wannon will fall, Tehan is gone, acceptance is the first step in getting over any anxieties Andrew Tillet (AFR) may be feeling.
C@t, assuming Wolahan holds his marginal seat and by some miracle becomes LNP leader, he would have to either i) take an enormous leap of faith by converting to rightwing ratbaggery or ii) he exercises (exorcises?) Christ-like powers of persuasion over his flock shorn of all credibility. Yes, it makes logical sense, but neither option is remotely possible.
Re Confessions @6:47. ” This should disqualify them from government funding.”
It seems to be a pretty clear case that the Victorian Catholic Education Authority has breached its “charitable” status.
More on the Catholic School hierarchy sending letters to their parents “(mis)informing” them about political party differences re funding of schools.
Never mind that it is illegal for registered charities to campaign.
This podcast starts with a look at this issue (you can skip the first minute or so of Van talking about her dog if you wish:).
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-week-on-wednesday-with-van-badham-ben-davison/id1528299411?i=1000705542795
Trump marks 100 days.
Just 1,361 days to go.
No relief: the Australian battleground electorates where rental pain is worst
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/sydney-melbourne-perth-rent-rental-pain-affordability-housing-crisis-australian-election-2025
“Key seats including Western Australia’s Bullwinkel and Werriwa in New South Wales are home to suburbs with the worst rent affordability and biggest price hikes, data compiled by Suburbtrends for Guardian Australia has revealed.
Australia faced one of its steepest and longest surges in rent prices leading up to and into 2024 and, according to Anglicare analysis released on Wednesday, fewer than 1% of rental listings are now affordable for a full-time worker on the minimum wage.
Good Morning! Here’s Your Final Stretch of the Election Campaign News and Views Roundup.
Niki Savva! Dutton has led one of the worst election campaigns in living memory. (Who also mentions Keith Wolahan as a potential future Liberal leader)
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-has-led-one-of-the-worst-election-campaigns-in-living-memory-20250429-p5lv7q.html
Albanese rushes in where Dutton fears to tread – the National Press Club. By Michelle Grattan
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/30/albanese-national-press-club
One Nation candidate poised to help Coalition in handshake deal has railed against climate science and Covid ‘little Hitlers’ Exclusive: Stuart Bonds could hand the Nationals the seat of Hunter thanks to a preference deal and ‘last minute’ change to how-to-vote cards
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/one-nation-candidate-poised-to-help-coalition-in-handshake-deal-has-railed-against-climate-science-and-covid-little-hitlers
Coalition Costings. Finally. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor and finance spokeswoman Jane Hume will on Thursday reveal the Coalition’s full costings, which will confirm cuts to several high-profile Labor programs, including its pledge to wipe $16 billion in student debts.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-promises-40b-debt-cut-as-nuclear-questions-grow-20250430-p5lvei.html
Final campaign dash kicks off as Albanese sweats on last-minute Dutton suburban fightback
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/final-campaign-dash-kicks-off-election/105147796
Exclusive Brethren chief’s son spotted on hustings supporting Liberal Party. The Plymouth Brethren Christian Church is a charity and could risk its charitable status if it were proved to be involved in party political activity. In addition, election integrity expert Joo-Cheong Tham called for an investigation into the Brethren’s activities under Commonwealth electoral law.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/exclusive-brethren-chief-s-son-spotted-on-hustings-supporting-liberal-party-20250430-p5lvgm.html
The Catholic Church in Victoria has intervened in the federal election campaign, attempting to dissuade their school parents from voting for Greens or independent candidates in seven hotly contested electorates.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/catholic-schools-election-intervention-in-key-seats-sparks-independents-ire-20250430-p5lvfp.html
Josh Frydenberg has admitted the Coalition’s campaign has not gone as the party had wanted, leaving the door open to his own political comeback as MPs ponder who the next opposition leader could be if Peter Dutton fails badly at Saturday’s election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-campaign-not-going-as-party-wanted-but-miracles-can-happen-frydenberg-20250430-p5lvgp.html
A fresh poll has added to Peter Dutton’s election woes, revealing two key issues that have turned voters away from the Coalition. The Redbridge-Accent poll for News Corp found global uncertainty caused by Donald Trump was one factor that had affected the Coalition’s vote.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/05/01/dutton-budget-costings
Liberal Party star Indigenous candidate Benson Saulo has already been accused of party-hopping after it emerged he had once been a member of the Greens. Now, Australian Labor Party records seen by CBD show he was also once a member of the ALP. Well, we’ve all shopped around, haven’t we?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/star-liberal-candidate-forgot-he-was-once-a-member-of-the-alp-20250428-p5luro.html
‘Barking up the wrong tree’ and ‘copycatting Trump’: First Nations leaders on the 2025 election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/first-nations-leaders-on-the-2025-election/105225522
An ugly personal contest for one of the country’s tightest seats, Bennelong in Sydney, has broken out into slurs and a Labor complaint to the election watchdog.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-s-dad-in-homophobic-outburst-at-polling-booth-20250430-p5lvj3.html
‘Borderline racism’: Embattled Bennelong Liberal candidate cries foul.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/borderline-racism-embattled-bennelong-liberal-candidate-cries-foul-20250429-p5lv46.html
Numbers man: What Liberal powerbroker Michael Sukkar really believes
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/numbers-man-what-liberal-powerbroker-michael-sukkar-really-believes-20250422-p5lti0.html
Victoria’s hot seats LIVE updates: Peter Dutton visits anti-Monique Ryan pub
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-s-hot-seats-live-updates-cost-of-living-in-focus-in-final-week-of-campaigning-20250425-p5lu8k.html
Dutton rides MAGA wave as PM pitches promise. By Alex Vickery-Howe
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/dutton-rides-maga-wave-as-pm-pitches-promise,19684
The stalwart: John Howard’s link to Madeleine King’s political success
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/western-australia/the-stalwart-john-howard-s-link-to-madeleine-king-s-political-success-20250430-p5lvif.html
By getting tangled up on inflation and exaggerating numbers, Peter Dutton has blown the opportunity he was handed. Cost-of-living problems are real – there’s no need for the Coalition to use even bigger numbers By Greg Jericho
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/may/01/by-getting-tangled-up-on-inflation-and-exaggerating-numbers-peter-dutton-has-blown-the-opportunity-he-was-handed
House prices are on track to continue rising across the country as interest rates fall and supply continues to remain tight. As voters head to the ballot box prepared to cast votes on the issue of housing affordability.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/house-prices-rise-nationally-in-april-ahead-of-federal-election/105232994
AUSVOTES ECONOMIC FACTS #14: Labor victory a good investment
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ausvotes-economic-facts-14-labor-victory-a-good-investment,19683
Analysis: Imagine Dutton’s implausible cuts to migration were actually possible. Now see the dire economic consequences. Net migration of international students and skilled workers would have to fall by almost 90% to achieve the Coalition’s promised figures. By Patrick Commins
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/01/imagine-dutton-implausible-cuts-to-migration-were-actually-possible-now-see-the-dire-economic-consequences
Labor challenges last-minute Coalition scare campaign on super tax
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-spooked-by-last-minute-super-scare-campaign-20250430-p5lvfq.html
Soft voters stir election hope for the Coalition and nerves for Labor. Cost of living, however, hasn’t been Dutton’s only theme in this final week of campaigning. He’s tried to jog memories of the failed Voice referendum. The prime minister has accused Peter Dutton of “verballing” Penny Wong, and Clive Palmer is spamming voters. By David Speers
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/soft-voters-coalition-labor-cost-of-living-culture-war/105233972
The Guardian view on Australia’s federal election: progressives must vote strategically. Editorial
Anthony Albanese has delivered steady, gradual reform – but a minority government might force Labor to push through bolder solutions
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/01/the-guardian-view-australian-federal-election-2025
Days out from the federal election, this is what voters are telling Your Say. By Ben Knight
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/federal-election-2025-your-say-voters/105233082
Would the Coalition lower energy bills by more than Labor? We asked 5 experts
https://theconversation.com/would-the-coalition-lower-energy-bills-by-more-than-labor-we-asked-5-experts-255622
Here’s what the Greens will prioritise in a minority Labor government
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/greens-party-campaign-launch-federal-election-2025/105223228
How the Greens rebranded from environmental activists to the ‘party of renters’
By political reporter Isobel Roe
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/greens-party-rebrands-ahead-of-federal-election-2025/105235682
The $60b energy boom hidden in Barnaby Joyce’s backyard. It’s the kind of economic windfall that regional Australia dreams of: $60 billion in investment, 4000 construction jobs, more than 5000 ongoing jobs, and enough clean energy to power half the country.
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/the-60b-energy-boom-hidden-in-barnaby-joyces-backyard/
No relief: the Australian battleground electorates where rental pain is worst. Key seats in western Sydney, outer Melbourne and Perth face the worst rent affordability and biggest price hikes, data reveals
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/sydney-melbourne-perth-rent-rental-pain-affordability-housing-crisis-australian-election-2025
Older Australians are also hurting from the housing crisis. Where are the election policies to help them?
https://theconversation.com/older-australians-are-also-hurting-from-the-housing-crisis-where-are-the-election-policies-to-help-them-255391
The 150 ways Australia’s electorates are wildly different. By the data.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-150-ways-australia-s-electorates-are-wildly-different-20250429-p5lv7d.html
ABC NEWS Verify has collected how-to-vote cards for the House of Representatives from the Labor Party, Liberal Party, Nationals, Greens, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots websites. And a bird’s eye view offers insights into who these parties want to see elected — in the event it’s not them — providing an insight into who they’re aligned with, and who they might work with in the next parliament. It also reveals some strange political bedfellows that could otherwise be easily missed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/how-to-vote-cards-in-your-electorates/105217758
Australian election 2025 poll tracker: Labor v Coalition latest opinion polls results
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2025/apr/30/australia-election-polls-latest-aus-opinion-poll-tracker-results-current-polling-survey-labor-vs-liberal-dutton-albanese
By close of business on Tuesday, just over 4 million Australians had already cast their vote, almost 800,000 more than at the same point in the 2022 campaign. And all without a sausage touching a barbecue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/how-ubereats-killed-the-democracy-sausage-20250430-p5lvck.html
Election Diary: post-election rate cut and phone call from Trump in the pipeline. Michelle Grattan
https://theconversation.com/election-diary-post-election-rate-cut-and-phone-call-from-trump-in-the-pipeline-255615
American reality star and convicted felon Joe Exotic, known as the “Tiger King”, has endorsed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in the most extreme example of an online influencer capitalising on the federal election to chase online clout.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/six-influencers-debated-politics-it-all-went-well-until-the-cameras-stopped-rolling-20250424-p5ltxd.html
Albanese ‘happy’ to ban annoying texts, won’t commit to make it happen
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-happy-to-ban-annoying-texts-won-t-commit-to-make-it-happen-20250430-p5lvat.html
Who is H Fong, the man authorising the flurry of annoying Trumpet of Patriots text messages?
Unsolicited texts authorised by Harry Fong, a Senate candidate for Queensland and ‘highly respected barrister’ who befriended Clive Palmer in the 1970s
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/01/who-is-h-fong-harry-trumpet-of-patriots-sms-text-messages-federal-election-ntwnfb
More Australians are voting early than in previous elections. Some parties have taken advantage.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/how-many-people-have-voted-already-prepoll-numbers-fe2025/105227960
On the campaign trail with Advancers, the ‘roadies’ who stage manage every handshake. Casey Briggs
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/federal-election-campaign-advancers-stage-manage-candidates/105227872
‘I won’t miss the pressure’: Election guru Antony Green calls time.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/30/antony-green-final-election
Trump pressures journalist to accept doctored photo as real: ‘Why don’t you just say yes?’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/30/trump-abc-news-terry-moran
If leaders stay silent, the US won’t survive Trump’s next 100 days
Robert Reich
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/30/trump-next-100-days
DOGE hits Trump country.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/30/doge-hits-trump-country-00319654
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull labels Trump a ‘bully’ at final Your Say panel
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/malcolm-turnbull-labels-trump-bully-your-say-panel-election/105234568
It is famed for hard-nosed bargaining with crisis-hit countries, so why did the International Monetary Fund throw a $20bn lifeline to the serial defaulter Argentina – despite alarm on its board? The answer is that the country’s rightwing leader, Javier Milei, is Donald Trump’s “favourite president”.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/30/the-guardian-view-on-argentinas-bailout-when-trumps-ally-calls-the-imf-obeys-at-a-cost
Canada narrowly missed a far-right prime minister. But we’re not in the clear yet. Tayo Bero
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/30/mark-carney-canada-prime-minister-far-right
Ukraine PM Denys Shmyhal says minerals deal with the US could be signed ‘in the next 24 hours’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-01/us-ukraine-minerals-deal/105236790
Richard Cullen Who holds the better cards – China or the US?
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/who-holds-the-better-cards-china-or-the-us/
Britain suddenly gets tough on China as it craves a Trump deal. As No. 10 tries to prove to the U.S. that it’s on the same page, a string of recent policy moves send a signal to Washington.
https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-donald-trump-china-labour-politics-rachel-reeves/
Brussels unveils Trump trade retaliation tactics to EU countries. EU executive is planning a two-track approach of incentives and retaliatory measures to convince the White House to strike a deal.
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-donald-trump-trade-retaliation-tariffs-negotiations/
16 countries to ask EU for fiscal leeway to spend big on defense
Germany is the only one of Europe’s big five economies to take up the EU executives offer.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-fiscal-defense-16-countries-public-finances-germany-emergency/
Microsoft would push back against Trump order to suspend European cloud operations.
https://www.politico.eu/article/microsoft-pitches-european-data-center-expansion-amid-tense-transatlantic-tech-ties/
French Justice Minister Darmanin lays groundwork for 2027 presidential bid. The field of candidates hoping to succeed Emmanuel Macron is starting to take shape two years ahead of the next election.
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmaunel-macron-france-justice-minister-gerald-darmanin-2027-presidential-bid/
The big decision that could shape AOC’s future. A career move that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pursued five months ago might make less sense now.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/30/aoc-house-oversight-democratic-party-future-00317612
Cartoon Time!
Alan Moir
Dionne Gain
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Mark David
First Dog On the Moon
Nicola Jennings on Nigel Farage’s pitch to voters at the local elections
From the Internet!
Enjoy!
So, it appears that the LNP’s mid campaign tactic of letting the Red Steer loose in the outer burbs and regions may be a huge wildcard in individual seat outcomes – potentially putting seats like Hunter at risk to ON and perhaps (or so it is hoped) picking up seats like Werriwa on the bounce.
This Baldrick like ‘cunning plan’ will however likely yield far more ON and other cooker senators – probably at the expense of the LNP more often than at the expense of Labor or the Greens.
All of this leads to a further enshittening of the Australian politics and any sort of #25in25 effect will simply mean that leftwing ratbags will compete with right wing cookers and tree Tories to flood the zone with shit and the chances of the sane to create enduring political capital around key issues to actually achieve public progress diminishes rapidly.
Quo Bono? Not the causes of any of the narrow casting ‘lib:lab-same-same’ merchants that flood the zone on bludger. That’s for sure. None of this will lead to any of the following:
– more climate change action (this is on YOU: P1, suck shit to you, pity about the environment though)
– more welfare spending (ditto to Pegarex)
– better housing policy (ditto to the Greens Political party boosters)
Quo bono? Same as always: our own home grown uber parasites like Gina the Hutt and foreign resource investors, plus our rum corp spivs.
Pegarex, P1 and the Greens boosters should reflect on this enshittening – if it comes about (Inshallah it doesn’t) and then drum themselves out.
The silver lining in all of this is the further withdraw of the LNP into a rightwing rump that has lost its claim to being a ‘broad church’ centre-right movement and will increasingly find itself in firefights with other cooker outfits and estranged from the base of support that it needs to be able to repeat the long term conservative torpor governments we have seen since WW2.
Halfback @ #39 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:10 am
It was a hypothetical which was trying to give the silly billy Liberals some guidance. I’m C@tmomma and I’m here to help. 😉
If the Catholic Schools body wants to play politics, then let’s DO it!
Anyone else feeling like the wheels are totally falling off the Coalition campaign? 2GB this morning seemed very despondent – they are Dutton’s biggest backers usually!
My hunch is still for a Labor minority government, but I can well believe Albo could eek out a majority of 1-3 seats.
@ Sprocket
This breakdown of the Redbridge is interesting
*********************
Come on you fellow atheists!
41:23 :19 (ALP:LNP:GRN)
2PP 65/35
Thanks C@tmomma, hope you’re feeling well