First up, two other things to note. There is another new post below this one exploring the minutiae of pollsters’ preference flows, a subject of great relevance to much of what is discussed below. The other is the Poll Bludger’s pre-election donation drive. On with the show:
• RedBridge Group has a national poll that gives the Coalition its poorest result yet, recording both major parties at 34% of the primary vote – up one in Labor’s case and down two for the Coalition ” with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up a point to 8%. This includes a timely two-party preferred result based on respondent-allocated preferences, in addition to the usual one based on 2022 election flows (a matter explored in very great depth in the aforementioned other post), both of which come in at 53-47 in favour of Labor. This is despite 73% out of the 7% One Nation vote (with a duly very small sample) going to the Coalition, compared with 64.3% in 2022. The report notes that that this improvement in isolation would have added 0.8% to the Coalition’s two-party result. Small-sample state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales and 56-44 in Victoria, and trailing 57-43 in Queensland. The accompanying report features voluminous further detail on factors influencing vote choice. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1011.
• A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 10%. Anthony Albanese is credited with a 47-35 lead over Peter Dutton on preferred prime minister. Among other things, the full report contains breakdowns for the four largest states along with useful (albeit small sample) age-by-gender result, one finding being that the Greens are twice as strong among young women as men. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 2000.
• DemosAU has two polls offering combined results of selected marginal seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and has a large sample national poll on the way), the former of which puts meat on the bones of suggestions One Nation is surging in seats such as those covered, namely Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke. Labor is down 7.2% on the primary vote to 32%, of which the Liberals yield only a one-point gain to 31%, while One Nation is up 5.6% to 10%. The Greens are up 3.2% to 13%, and Trumpet of Patriots manages only 2%, down 4.5% on the United Australia Party result. Labor holds a two-party lead of 53-47 based on 2022 election flows: if the Liberals really are doing as well out of One Nation as some have suggested, that may reduce to 51-49. The poll was conducted April 13 to 22 from a sample of 924.
• The DemosAU Sydney marginal seats poll covers Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa and is much better for Labor, who are credited with a two-party lead of 56-44, a swing in their favour of 1.3%. Both major parties are well down on the primary vote, Labor to 36% (down 4.3%) and Liberal to 28% (down 7.4%), mostly accounted for by 11% for independents (there are four independent candidates across the three seats, none particularly high profile, compared with only one last time), with the Greens on 10% (up 1.4%). All three seats are highly multicultural and duly weak for One Nation. The poll was conducted April 13 to 27 from a sample of 905.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review offers an overview based on the views of “multiple campaign strategists and frontbenchers from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens”. Most of the assessments offered are conventional wisdom, though Labor appears hopeful about Griffith and Bonner along with more fancied Brisbane; a Liberal source goes so far as to say they “think we will win Werriwa”; Labor is rated a better chance of retaining Chisholm than was earlier thought; both sides expect Labor to hold Tangney, and give Labor a “slight edge” in Lyons; and Liberals are pessimistic about Bradfield, though “early anxiety over independents in Wannon and Forrest had faded”. A Liberal source did not concur with a view related by “senior Labor and Liberal sources” in The Advertiser that Sturt was “increasingly likely to fall to Labor”. The West Australian reports a Liberal source saying Curtin is 51-49, without revealing in whose favour.
• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.
Incredible (stupidity) that Dutton’s campaign team doubled down on Trumpism during this campaign.
All the polling evidence in Australia and world wide was that Trump became toxic to voters after he humiliated Zelensky in their Oval Office meeting and then upended the world’s economy with his tariffs. Trump is a dangerous bully.
Surely Dutton should have tried to cut off any associations with Trump till after the election?
shellbell @ #193 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 11:17 am
I suspect that your arithmetic may be a little awry. My bet was just a little less than the $1.25 million you seem to have assumed. Would have been a bit hard to find ‘layers’ for that amount. It took about 10 minutes for me to be fully ‘matched’ at the time.
US stocks underperformed since Gerald Ford
Trump said at WH that maybe children will have 2 dolls instead of 30 dolls
A poll
Trump is a dangerous dictator
Yes: 52%
No: 44%
Driving down to our Ulladulla office today I heard on ABC news radio 90,90 that Indigenous voting blocs could decide the result in crucial marginals such as Gilmore. There was a boffin from ANU I think discussing it. Does anyone know what the basis of all this is ?
How will Dutton explain engaging Trump’s main adviser in February to help in the campaign?
Does the YouGov MRP National result count as poll for Bludger track?
I’m counting it as the YouGov last poll for election at 52.9 ALP.
Still probably a Newspoll, Essential and Freshwater to go and possibly a Roy Morgan. With the possibly of some left field ones like IPSOS.
yabba @ #193 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 10:47 am
Mangrove Dam might fill from its own catchment?
@Arky, I mostly agree with all that.
For the record too, my last sentence wasn’t implying that it WOULD be a GRN v LIB count, but saying that if it was, the Liberals are extremely unlikely to have a primary vote high enough to be competitive (even if they got 35-40% of Labor preferences) since the Coalition’s support has tanked.
My prediction for each of the two possible 2CP scenarios is as follows:
58-42 ALP v LIB; or
53-47 GRN v LIB
I still think it’s a genuine 50/50 tossup as to which one will occur as there are too many factors pushing & pulling in both directions. My prediction is that it will just be extremely close at the 3CP count (under 1% between ALP & GRN again).
I also agree that Benson isn’t a great candidate, but also in 2013, 2016 & 2019 I don’t believe they had great candidates either. I think he’s an average candidate for what the Liberals generally run in the area. But Colleen Harkin in 2022 was spectacularly bad, and probably the bigger issue was simply that the Liberals didn’t even compete. No ads, no signs, no leaflets, didn’t even have volunteers on polling day. That’s the big difference this time that I think will just return the Liberal vote to its ‘normal’ position, which is about -1.5% compared to the statewide result, instead of being -4% like it was in 2022.
The U.S political system is such a basket case. The electoral college, citizens united, The distribution of senators per state, to name some obvious ones. Amendments to the constitution seem near impossible.
This favors republicans and they have no intentions of changing anything.
We are very fortunate here .
Good post BB
Australia exported about $140 billion worth of Iron ore in 2023. So 15% of $140 billion is $21 billion. Yes, it is a nice chunk of change but it is peanuts compared to the total value of the budget.
@pithicus: For Bass, YouGov MRP says:
“Two party preferred vote: Coalition (52.2%) over Labor (47.8%)
with 0.7% swing to Coalition”
The MRP is genuinely great for generating all these slightly out there outcomes which aren’t herded one iota and which don’t simply rely on a uniform swing. Right or wrong it will be a goldmine to analyse. The more they get right the more they will become the gold standard; if they’re massively wrong nobody will listen to another MRP for 10 years. They did pretty well last time but the inability to predict the teal seats made it hard for them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Driving down to our Ulladulla office today I heard on ABC news radio 90,90 that Indigenous voting blocs could decide the result in crucial marginals such as Gilmore. There was a boffin from ANU I think discussing it. Does anyone know what the basis of all this is ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
From memory, a higher than average Indigenous population in Gilmore, centered around Nowra and JB.
Liberals talking shit here in James Campbel’s article. Complaining the other side will spend whatever and the Liberals shouldn’t follow. 9 deficits, 0 surpluses and left debt five times greater then the previous Rudd/Gillard governments in office. If they were in government you wouldn’t hear boo from these so called ‘fiscal conservatives’ while the Liberals put the budget into deficit splurging on defence.
“If you just go through this cheque book transactional approach to a campaign don’t be surprised when the other guy has a bigger chequebook because he doesn’t care what he spends.”
An MP agrees: “That’s what’s happening in this election, if it’s about who can spend more government money – well who do you think is going to win?”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/inside-story-of-what-went-wrong-with-the-coalitions-campaign/news-story/0de0a5230648d68e31fd6424d9ab25c4
Scepticsays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 6:15 am
Surely the Liberals will release their costings after lunch on Saturday as per usual, thus ensuring plenty of time for them to be analysed prior to polls closing.
==========================================================
The magic pudding costings will show that the LNP will spend less over the next decade while simultaneously spending hundreds of billions on white elephant nuclear plants and defense . This will be claimed to be due to huge savings from mainly unspecified cuts to public services. Yet we all know that in the past, previous LNP cuts resulted in higher costs as government workers were replaced by expensive private consultants.
Jimbob @ #195 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 11:19 am
lol.
Do you want the hardnosed cynical view? Political expediency. But if I gave that answer the people lining up to yell “Both the same” would be too long for the blog to handle.
Arkysays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:29 am
@pithicus: For Bass, YouGov MRP says:
“Two party preferred vote: Coalition (52.2%) over Labor (47.8%)
with 0.7% swing to Coalition”
Thanks.
Not what I would have expected.
Anyone have any info on the DemosAU poll cited by Kevin Bonham? Shows 51/49.
My prediction – Feeling nervous, but more confident.
ALP 79
LNP 53
IND 13
Green 3
CA 1
KAP 1
2PP: 52.1 ALP
Comment for the day – Shame about Penny’s comment – even if blown out of proportion by Newscorp. I think it reflects a confidence in the ALP and a win on Saturday. The continued slide in LNP PV, ALP improvement in PV – Other than an increase in ON vote I imagine a few seats change hands and hopefully of no miracles for Dutton on Saturday night.
Dutton’s backflip on curriculum doesn’t seem to include a commitment to 100% funding.
BTW, it’s worth remembering that if the The West Australian had any impact whatsoever in the state then Basil Zempilas would be Premier by now. If you want to influence people you need to pretend to be neutral.
Good news from the Abs March saw commodies produced go through the roof driving surplus monthly to 6.9 billion.
Selected commodities, quantities (a)
Oct 24 Nov 24 (%)Dec 24 (%) Jan 25 (%) Feb 25 (%) Mar 25 (%)
Iron ore – Lump -8.0 1.2 4.2 -16.0 12.5 51.3
Iron ore – Fines -7.5 4.2 5.7 -13.1 -18.1 39.3
Coal – Hard coking -3.6 -6.1 15.6-33.0-9.7 60.3
Coal – Semi-soft 14.5 -16.2 3.5 5.2 -27.6 34.6
Coal – Thermal -0.7 13.5 3.0 -24.7 -9.0 30.8
Gas – LNG 7.7 -2.0 5.4 -5.0 -13.2 17.5
77 million deplorables and dim wits voted for Trump eh?
“Anyone have any info on the DemosAU poll cited by Kevin Bonham? Shows 51/49.”
Kevin himself calculates it at 51.8 (per 2022 prefs) so not that far off other polls
With reality congealing around Scott’s prediction, the last bit of reality to come on board was his forecast of the LNP possibly going backward by four seats in Victoria. The latest Redbridge poll shows an ALP TPP vote of 56% in Victoria, a swing of 1.2% to the ALP from the 54.8% vote they recorded in 2022. This now suggests that this prediction, too, could happen.
Quote: “We are not worthy”
Pied Piper
“Trump won in a landslide”.
No he didn’t, he eked out a modest win. Check out the journalistic endeavours of Greg Palast, he explains in painful detail, backed by voluminous data, how the Republicans suppressed 3.5 million votes. And now look at Trump, approval rating the worst for a 100 day President in the 80 years of the modern era, US citizens and legal residents stripped of due process and habeas corpus, Judge arrested on flimsy evidence, an unelected moron wreaking havoc throughout the bureaucracy, GICEstapo ripping people off the streets with no warrant and lies constant lies ‘the economy is booming’ ‘tourism to the US is off the charts’. Ffs, who but a dimwitted moron or a self-interested millionaire/billionaire would still be supportive of the evil jerk.
Angus Taylor , may just be getting more nervous and sweaty from today
As he is the likely leader of the federal liberal party and opposition after Saturday night , and when parliament resumes he may be leading a opposition lot smaller than the one , went to this years federal election
ALP 79
LNP 52
Green 3
Rest 16
2PP ALP 52.3
@Trent:
“For the record too, my last sentence wasn’t implying that it WOULD be a GRN v LIB count, but saying that if it was, the Liberals are extremely unlikely to have a primary vote high enough to be competitive (even if they got 35-40% of Labor preferences) since the Coalition’s support has tanked.”
I think it has always been clear the Libs were never competitive to actually win the seat unless you believed delusional Libs who were circulating a thing I saw claiming that they were going to get 40% primary based on some non-scientific piece of Herald Sun nuttery. The pocket of Labor 1, Greens last maniacs isn’t that big.
“I also agree that Benson isn’t a great candidate, but also in 2013, 2016 & 2019 I don’t believe they had great candidates either. I think he’s an average candidate for what the Liberals generally run in the area. But Colleen Harkin in 2022 was spectacularly bad, and probably the bigger issue was simply that the Liberals didn’t even compete. No ads, no signs, no leaflets, didn’t even have volunteers on polling day. That’s the big difference this time that I think will just return the Liberal vote to its ‘normal’ position, which is about -1.5% compared to the statewide result, instead of being -4% like it was in 2022.”
It is true that they’re making an effort this time, but against that is the tactical voting angle they didn’t have previously.
It doesn’t tremendously matter – the Libs ought to do well enough to remain in the top 2 after preferences from the cookers which brings it back to Labor vs Greens for the other spot. The MRP is extremely poor for the Greens in Macnamara especially after taking into account the lack of the Animal Justice candidate this time around. IF – if – the MRP is right about the Greens primary then it won’t be close, but we’ll just have to see.
If the MRP is correct (it also doesn’t have Wills being that close), that ought to shake the confidence of the Greens about how they’ve run their campaign. From my point of view that’s a good thing as I think the Greens need a massive dose of self-reflection instead of self-congratulation.
Don’t see the greens going backwards in Macnamara when they the only party really targeting that younger renter demographic with dental on medicare and rental polices and housing affordability that’s just falling off the radar.
Liberals getting a 2% swing in Macnamara sounds about right because their campaign won’t get much traction there but they should be getting a slightly higher swing in the teal seats but if not they have serious problems but we should be seeing labor vote up in teal seats because labor people know they can give Albo the thumbs up.
… who is now claiming there isn’t enough time to give them due process.
Just for the record, Libs and Labs in Tas are both the same. 🙂
Labor had a shot at reducing the pokermachine monopoly a few years back. That failed. Went back to same-same as Libs.
2024 US presidential election:
Republican 49.8%
Democratic 48.3
Other 1.9%
2024 US Presidential Election in Pennsylvania (tipping-point state)
Republican 50.4%
Democratic 48.7%
Other 0.9%
Electoral Vote count
Republican 312
Democratic 226
Other 0
(source: Wikipedia)
Arkysays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:45 am
=====================================================
I doubt the Greens will pick up Wills. Their campaign relies too much on garnering votes from a minority group, which often makes the majority feel they aren’t being listened to. Also, if they wanted to maximize the votes they received from Muslims, they should have chosen a male candidate.
@Arky, I don’t put a whole lot of faith into the MRP’s seat predictions because while it’s great at picking up demographic trends at a national & state level, what it misses is local factors and the impact of different ground campaigns between different (often neighbouring) seats.
In the case of the Greens, there are quite a few inner-Melbourne seats with similar demographics, but they have pretty much poured all their Victorian resources into just two of those seats (Macnamara and Wills) and this is a dynamic the MRP would miss.
Living in the seat myself, the Greens’ campaign has been even bigger than 2022, easily the biggest I’ve ever seen and far bigger than the Labor & Liberal campaigns (probably combined). I don’t think they’re going to get a meaningful swing towards them, but I think their primary vote will likely hold up (partly with the assistance of AJP not running).
I am not going to change my prediction for the MRP results but it certainly gives me a level of comfort.
Teal seats they are going big calls. Zoe Daniel in Goldstein 63.5 – 36.5. Monique Ryan in Kooyong 60-40. Kate Cheney in Curtin 55.7.44.3. Massive wins forecast in Wannon and Bradfield.
You’d really really want to be getting those right for your credibility.
This is a very weird arrangement…
“Members of a secretive Christian sect are being given instructions on how to lie about their beliefs against voting in elections, through messages the ABC understands have been circulated among the sect’s followers.
There have been reports of unusually large numbers of volunteers supporting the Coalition at pre-poll booths in select seats across the country — it’s understood many are members of the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church (PBCC).” …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/plymouth-brethren-deny-coordinated-campaign-support-coalition/105233290
Mostly interested if yer about, can you add 2pp 52.1 alp 48.9 coalition. thanks.
Looks like the Coalition are going to hobble the NBN rollout to the Rural and Remote areas, and replace it with, no prizes for guessing, Elon Musk’s Starlink:
Coalition flags internet and telco upgrades in regions
Nationals leader David Littleproud is appearing in Alice Springs alongside Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. They are both wearing big hats.
Littleproud is flagging internet infrastructure upgrades and telecommunications improvements to the regions, including a universal service obligation to ensure minimum standards in remote areas.
He says the government has “not held the telcos to account” and Australia needs to capitalise on new technology, pointing to developments from Elon Musk.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/01/australia-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-campaign-policies-economy-inflation-cost-of-living-coalition-labor-ntwnfb
Arkysays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:57 am
I am not going to change my prediction for the MRP results but it certainly gives me a level of comfort.
Teal seats they are going big calls. Zoe Daniel in Goldstein 63.5 – 36.5. Monique Ryan in Kooyong 60-40. Kate Cheney in Curtin 55.7.44.3. Massive wins forecast in Wannon and Bradfield.
You’d really really want to be getting those right for your credibility.
—————————-
Know safe labor seats with labor winning 60+ so liberals getting less than 40% and the Victorian teal seats don’t feel like that.
Team Katich @ #206 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 11:24 am
It was nearly full before this last lot of rain. We went for a family picnic there (it’s near our Bucketty place) to have a look at the new facilities a few weeks ago.
Mardi, the main supply dam (33°17’33.0″S 151°23’43.9″E), near Westfield Tuggerah, where the purification facilities are, is filled mostly by pumping from the Wyong River at a pumping station (-33.27644860453492, 151.39983663543433) near the Yarramalong Road bridge over the river. There is a weir across the river about 2 km downstream from there, near the old Wyong Butter and Cheese Factory (now a pub plus choc and craft shop and cafes.)
Looks like the voters of Bradfield, according to the MRP there, approve of a bit of side eye at the local male hairdresser. 😉
@Trent: “In the case of the Greens, there are quite a few inner-Melbourne seats with similar demographics, but they have pretty much poured all their Victorian resources into just two of those seats (Macnamara and Wills) and this is a dynamic the MRP would miss.”
Perhaps.
The Greens have a long history of pouring resources into seats for no gain. Other parties are also putting plenty into Macnamara.
Do you know what I haven’t seen once all campaign? Adam Bandt expressing confidence in winning the seat. Obviously he has visited but apart from popping up with his dishonest “dirty deal” thing about the open ticket decision, which was more about smearing Labor to his nationwide audience, he’s not really been talking about it.
I think he hears the same thing – the Greens vote is down in Macnamara, they’re not winning it, and he’d rather spend his time and megaphone trying to save the furniture in Queensland and having a flutter at Richmond.
The MRP doesn’t have them winning Richmond either but it does give them enough of a swing there to suggest it’s possible and they have reason to be optimistic that they are gaining, not losing, ground there.
There is not enough bandwidth for everyone to use starlink.
@c@t: “Looks like the voters of Bradfield, according to the MRP there, approve of a bit of side eye at the local male hairdresser. ”
It’s almost like people have learned nothing from the Trump era, to think that a comment like that was going to have people going “well, I WOULD vote for her but she acted like a human and not a politically correct robot towards a hairdresser so now I won’t”.
It might have hurt slightly if she was a bloke being a sleaze at a female hairdresser. And maybe not even then.
leftieBrawler at 11.22 am
In 2022 Constance got a swing of about 6% (from memory) in Mogo, a fairly small booth with a substantial Indigenous population.
The main reason for that would have been Constance’s prominent profile during the 19/20 fires, in which Mogo was very badly affected.
I think Mogo will swing back to Labor, as will some other places in the S of Gilmore, particularly Moruya.
As King OMalley noted, Constance has a poor campaigning record; apart from the Labor wipeout in 2011, he rarely improved in the seat of Bega.
Socratessays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:21 am
Incredible (stupidity) that Dutton’s campaign team doubled down on Trumpism during this campaign.
All the polling evidence in Australia and world wide was that Trump became toxic to voters after he humiliated Zelensky in their Oval Office meeting and then upended the world’s economy with his tariffs. Trump is a dangerous bully.
Surely Dutton should have tried to cut off any associations with Trump till after the election?
____________________
Dutton is bereft of substance.
He has relied on attaching himself to more prominent others like Murdoch, Trump, Gina, Pezzullo, etc, to climb the ladder.
The Temu Trump campaign was a catastrophic judgement call from him.
My uneducated stab –
77 Lab
52 LNP
3 Grn
18 Others
Lab 52.1%
Thanks Mostly Interested
Cat at 12.04 pm
The hairdresser was a young woman.
Ok, I have done the pre-poll figures again. 4,843,706 people had pre-polled voted until yesterday. That is 26.8% of the enrolment.
Here it is once again by electorate:
Adelaide 20,862 15.9%
Aston 33,658 27.5%
Ballarat 32,709 28.1%
Banks 27,603 23.1%
Barker 31,273 24.6%
Barton 25,595 21.2%
Bass 11,787 14.7%
Bean 29,263 25.7%
Bendigo 39,488 32.9%
Bennelong 26,541 21.1%
Berowra 28,198 21.5%
Blair 35,397 24.9%
Blaxland 20,453 17.5%
Bonner 29,921 26.4%
Boothby 27,656 21.3%
Bowman 38,169 31.0%
Braddon 19,070 22.6%
Bradfield 27,864 22.0%
Brand 32,743 29.1%
Brisbane 28,356 22.2%
Bruce 31,508 24.7%
Bullwinkel 27,540 22.7%
Burt 31,997 26.7%
Calare 42,367 34.0%
Calwell 25,346 21.9%
Canberra 27,424 26.6%
Canning 40,260 33.7%
Capricornia 35,380 30.7%
Casey 28,708 23.5%
Chifley 27,489 23.6%
Chisholm 28,707 23.4%
Clark 12,792 17.2%
Cook 29,061 24.4%
Cooper 29,108 24.3%
Corangamite 36,243 31.7%
Corio 33,327 27.1%
Cowan 27,098 23.3%
Cowper 43,142 32.8%
Cunningham 37,043 28.0%
Curtin 27,914 23.8%
Dawson 42,586 36.3%
Deakin 28,546 22.5%
Dickson 36,500 30.6%
Dobell 33,473 27.3%
Dunkley 28,396 22.8%
Durack 22,500 18.8%
Eden-Monaro 43,106 35.5%
Fadden 42,638 31.4%
Fairfax 45,544 34.8%
Farrer 34,224 27.6%
Fenner 32,104 30.4%
Fisher 53,410 38.4%
Flinders 41,975 32.9%
Flynn 36,431 30.9%
Forde 33,269 24.8%
Forrest 35,845 30.5%
Fowler 47,310 39.4%
Franklin 15,421 18.4%
Fraser 37,928 30.5%
Fremantle 33,399 28.2%
Gellibrand 34,598 29.1%
Gilmore 48,995 38.0%
Gippsland 44,341 37.5%
Goldstein 32,468 25.7%
Gorton 38,660 29.9%
Grayndler 31,307 24.9%
Greenway 30,677 25.8%
Grey 29,286 22.8%
Griffith 31,344 25.3%
Groom 33,059 27.8%
Hasluck 25,326 22.4%
Hawke 36,458 30.7%
Herbert 37,035 30.5%
Hindmarsh 24,375 18.5%
Hinkler 51,097 40.0%
Holt 29,434 26.0%
Hotham 31,114 26.1%
Hughes 28,623 24.9%
Hume 31,228 26.6%
Hunter 41,261 31.2%
Indi 39,140 32.4%
Isaacs 36,473 30.2%
Jagajaga 29,488 24.3%
Kennedy 43,465 35.1%
Kingsford Smith 27,544 23.5%
Kingston 27,563 21.5%
Kooyong 30,138 24.2%
La Trobe 27,824 24.1%
Lalor 34,442 30.1%
Leichhardt 38,212 31.1%
Lilley 30,802 26.0%
Lindsay 30,685 25.3%
Lingiari 15,342 20.0%
Longman 45,482 31.8%
Lyne 41,388 31.9%
Lyons 15,259 17.2%
Macarthur 25,490 22.2%
Mackellar 31,100 24.0%
Macnamara 21,479 18.7%
Macquarie 34,429 28.2%
Makin 25,991 21.0%
Mallee 38,197 31.4%
Maranoa 32,029 27.7%
Maribyrnong 33,917 27.5%
Mayo 33,393 24.2%
McEwen 23,670 20.1%
McMahon 34,708 28.8%
McPherson 36,233 29.8%
Melbourne 22,699 20.0%
Menzies 32,324 26.7%
Mitchell 22,878 18.6%
Monash 37,618 32.3%
Moncrieff 38,434 30.6%
Moore 32,140 26.4%
Moreton 23,993 22.0%
New England 40,453 30.8%
Newcastle 29,002 23.0%
Nicholls 45,259 37.3%
O’Connor 30,448 24.9%
Oxley 33,452 27.3%
Page 34,999 27.0%
Parkes 35,058 26.8%
Parramatta 21,108 18.0%
Paterson 43,782 34.2%
Pearce 34,781 30.2%
Perth 28,042 24.5%
Petrie 37,580 28.0%
Rankin 28,028 24.4%
Reid 25,952 22.0%
Richmond 41,637 32.8%
Riverina 41,680 32.4%
Robertson 31,263 27.2%
Ryan 30,190 26.3%
Scullin 27,196 23.7%
Shortland 32,821 26.7%
Solomon 26,165 33.2%
Spence 26,336 19.0%
Sturt 25,901 19.9%
Swan 28,313 24.4%
Sydney 25,944 20.3%
Tangney 33,696 27.5%
Wannon 37,447 30.7%
Warringah 33,768 25.8%
Watson 23,439 20.1%
Wentworth 36,100 28.3%
Werriwa 34,543 29.3%
Whitlam 43,328 33.3%
Wide Bay 36,096 29.3%
Wills 24,591 19.6%
Wright 36,988 26.4%
Hinkler is the new leader with 40% already cast overtaking Fowler. Must be something good going on in that part of Queensland on Saturday (a rodeo or a cousin wedding).
C@T, the NBN in remote Australia is already provided by Starlink. The Nats announcement is only for folk in a cave who haven’t heard about it yet.
Here’s the Telstra satellite NBN page “Powered by Starlink”. https://www.telstra.com.au/internet/starlink
Elon’s usual $1000 connection fee is substantially subsidised by the government to $540 and the ongoing monthly cost is a negotiated discount = $125 instead of the usual $139.