Polls: RedBridge Group, Spectre Strategy, DemosAU Sydney and Melbourne marginals (open thread)

First up, two other things to note. There is another new post below this one exploring the minutiae of pollsters’ preference flows, a subject of great relevance to much of what is discussed below. The other is the Poll Bludger’s pre-election donation drive. On with the show:

• RedBridge Group has a national poll that gives the Coalition its poorest result yet, recording both major parties at 34% of the primary vote – up one in Labor’s case and down two for the Coalition ” with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up a point to 8%. This includes a timely two-party preferred result based on respondent-allocated preferences, in addition to the usual one based on 2022 election flows (a matter explored in very great depth in the aforementioned other post), both of which come in at 53-47 in favour of Labor. This is despite 73% out of the 7% One Nation vote (with a duly very small sample) going to the Coalition, compared with 64.3% in 2022. The report notes that that this improvement in isolation would have added 0.8% to the Coalition’s two-party result. Small-sample state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales and 56-44 in Victoria, and trailing 57-43 in Queensland. The accompanying report features voluminous further detail on factors influencing vote choice. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1011.

• A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 10%. Anthony Albanese is credited with a 47-35 lead over Peter Dutton on preferred prime minister. Among other things, the full report contains breakdowns for the four largest states along with useful (albeit small sample) age-by-gender result, one finding being that the Greens are twice as strong among young women as men. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 2000.

• DemosAU has two polls offering combined results of selected marginal seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and has a large sample national poll on the way), the former of which puts meat on the bones of suggestions One Nation is surging in seats such as those covered, namely Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke. Labor is down 7.2% on the primary vote to 32%, of which the Liberals yield only a one-point gain to 31%, while One Nation is up 5.6% to 10%. The Greens are up 3.2% to 13%, and Trumpet of Patriots manages only 2%, down 4.5% on the United Australia Party result. Labor holds a two-party lead of 53-47 based on 2022 election flows: if the Liberals really are doing as well out of One Nation as some have suggested, that may reduce to 51-49. The poll was conducted April 13 to 22 from a sample of 924.

• The DemosAU Sydney marginal seats poll covers Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa and is much better for Labor, who are credited with a two-party lead of 56-44, a swing in their favour of 1.3%. Both major parties are well down on the primary vote, Labor to 36% (down 4.3%) and Liberal to 28% (down 7.4%), mostly accounted for by 11% for independents (there are four independent candidates across the three seats, none particularly high profile, compared with only one last time), with the Greens on 10% (up 1.4%). All three seats are highly multicultural and duly weak for One Nation. The poll was conducted April 13 to 27 from a sample of 905.

• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review offers an overview based on the views of “multiple campaign strategists and frontbenchers from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens”. Most of the assessments offered are conventional wisdom, though Labor appears hopeful about Griffith and Bonner along with more fancied Brisbane; a Liberal source goes so far as to say they “think we will win Werriwa”; Labor is rated a better chance of retaining Chisholm than was earlier thought; both sides expect Labor to hold Tangney, and give Labor a “slight edge” in Lyons; and Liberals are pessimistic about Bradfield, though “early anxiety over independents in Wannon and Forrest had faded”. A Liberal source did not concur with a view related by “senior Labor and Liberal sources” in The Advertiser that Sturt was “increasingly likely to fall to Labor”. The West Australian reports a Liberal source saying Curtin is 51-49, without revealing in whose favour.

• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 thoughts on “Polls: RedBridge Group, Spectre Strategy, DemosAU Sydney and Melbourne marginals (open thread)”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. Boerwar @ #676 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:29 pm

    rhw

    Bluey reckons he has been burned by feckless humans and by preference roulette before.

    As for moi, all I really, truly, want is three more years of Labor embedding the renewables transformation. In three years time they will have broken the back of generation capacity shortfall and gone an enormous distance with batteries, poles and wires. (I drove from Albury to Melbourne a few weeks ago and the number of solar panels being installed was absolutely thrilling.)

    Car manufacturing companies will have embedded the emissions standards in their export strategies to Australia. Most domestic companies will have made significant progress in at least reducing their emissions intensity.

    EV take up and charging infrastructure will be further developed.

    We will get all that regardless of whether Labor is a minority or majority government.

    Amen. Your (single) heart is in the right place as far as this human is concerned – and, I suspect, a majority of our species(‘).

  2. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:38 pm

    My untrained eye thinks the high Labor vote on most issues indicates the overall assessment by Freshwater is way too optimistic on COALition outcome…. National security & crime are totally non issues unless you are a ON voter

  4. pp

    Why on earth would people think the LNP would provide more infrastructure for the outer suburbs? The only thing they know how to do is wider and more tolled roads.

    If you want anything actually useful built, only the ALP builds it.

  5. “Sportsbet now ha e an option for next Liberal leader after Dutton
    Angus Taylor is favourite at $1.83”

    Angus, stop putting bets on yourself on Sportsbet, you’ll go blind.

  6. The so-called “Wong stuff up” was only really of interest to those inside “the parkway”*. At worst it was to suggest that the issue of indigenous recognition might have to one day need to be revisited – which is probably stating the bleeding oblivious as Indigenous affairs is an ongoing saga.

    * I use inside “the Parkway” as Canberra lacks a “Beltway”. Basically it is only of interest to political junkies (and perhaps those people who think Indigenous people should go back to where they came from).

  7. ‘Laser says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:52 pm

    Sportsbet now ha e an option for next Liberal leader after Dutton
    Angus Taylor is favourite at $1.83’
    ========================
    Thanks. Love it!

  8. doyleysays:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:19 pm
    Interesting Freshwater PV figures.
    ============================================

    Freshwater has become salty with LNP tears.

  10. Paul A
    Nooooooooooo, don’t go……………at least ring the psephology helpline, they may be able to help you navigate through your crisis.

  11. CN: If you want anything actually useful built, only the ALP builds it.

    You obviously don’t live in Sydney where the Liberals basically rebuilt the entire road system. Now that the ALP back in building has stopped.

  14. I nearly backed Morrison at the huge odds in 2019 but I thought too many expected Shorten.

    +1 Centre you want to be on the lookout for the bets where everyone expects a particular outcome but for some reason the odds are also very long.

  16. Trent Slaters @ #713 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:57 pm

    CN: If you want anything actually useful built, only the ALP builds it.

    You obviously don’t live in Sydney where the Liberals basically rebuilt the entire road system. Now that the ALP back in building has stopped.

    Because Labor believes in Public Transport. The Liberals believe in turning Sydney into a spaghetti junction of Private Tollways. Most in the world.

  18. Laser – How is Michael McCormack listed as a potential candidate (albeit at $51)? He’s a National.

    The surprising thing about that list is how shallow the talent pool actually is Tehan, Hastie and Sukkar (who are listed as 2nd, 4th and 6th favourites) are all at risk of not being there come Sunday.

  20. pied pipersays:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:30 pm
    So it will come down to about the 50% who vote on Saturday says freshwater.
    —
    No it wont. The LNP has fallen too far behind during the early voting phase of the election and there are now not enough votes for them to catch up on the day.

    Based on AEC prepoll numbers, polling averages and voting trends of Early v Election between ALP & LNP from 2022 (to account for any biases), I estimate that the LNP require 55.14% of the remaining vote to win the election, when polling aggregators estimate they are currently pulling only about 48.41% of the vote (see the analysis here).

    That gap is more than twice the 2019 polling error. In other words, it’s over.

  21. The Voice has been worked over and over by Sky After Dark and was almost immediately incorporated into social media campaigns.

    Albanese got a question on it at the NPC by one of the usual suspects.

    It was front page on one of the state newspapers ? The West Australia?

    The point? Increasing the preferences across from PHON to the Liberals.

  22. Steelydan says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:38 pm
    55% to the Coalition of those that have voted sounds high but I hope it to be true. Polls had been indication an ALP majority Freshwater back to ALP minority. Makes for an interesting night, my mob looks like losing but I love election night. I get the same sort of feeling as a State of Origin match…looks like QLD will lose though.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Agreed, 55% does seem high.
    I live in a Labor electorate, a Labor state electorate and a Labor council ward so I’m used to winning.
    As for election night, I consider it my Grand Final night for politics.
    Wish we could have one every year like State of Origin.
    Perhaps we could have a referendum to do that.
    Maybe not.
    I’m still sticking to Labor getting to 80 seats.

  24. pied piper @ #692 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:43 pm

    Hmmm the only problem with that and would not be surprised if it was true but it’s the migrant community suffering in the outer suburbs due to lack of infrastructure and crime etc due to the labor population Ponzi scheme.
    I think libs will do well in these suburbs around Australia on Saturday remember Werribee Byelection and really Kos Salad at Redbridge should know better.

    10% swing at that state by -election and massive swings in the newer aspirational migrant communities housing developments against labor.

    This is the cohort that libs are after.They have gone after these people bigtime.

    You got your Freshwater, pied piper. Happy?

  25. Player One says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 5:30 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #45 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:21 am

    – more climate change action (this is on YOU: P1, suck shit to you, pity about the environment though)
    – more welfare spending (ditto to Pegarex)
    – better housing policy (ditto to the Greens Political party boosters)

    Quo bono? Same as always: our own home grown uber parasites like Gina the Hutt and foreign resource investors, plus our rum corp spivs.

    Jeez, I go away for a few days and come back to this shit.

    It is not on me, you dipstick, it is on you and your pathetic party with it’s pathetic leadership and even more pathetic policies that less and less people actually want to vote for.

    If you get your bums back onto the Treasury benches this time then you should absolutely make the most of it, because it will very probably be your last chance to enrich yourselves at our expense.

    The shit is going to hit the fan sooner rather than later, and you and your pathetic party will – quite rightly – be the ones held responsible.?

    P1, your enthusiasm for the Coalition is showing.

    So, if as you say, Labor gets its bums onto the Treasury benches this time, they should make the most if it, blah blah blah…..because you will NEVER get the treasury benches again!

    Que? If Labor cannot sit on the treasury benches, then it will be the COALition (as you call them).

    So, with our 2PP system, are you suggesting that after this term, the COALition will sit on the treasury benches for ever?

    If you see a third party taking control of the Treasury benches, then “Please Explain”.

  26. C@t, Laura Tingle gave credit to William’s poll aggregator (I think that’s the words she used) for an overall opinion of the likely result.

  27. B.S Fairman

    I suppose McCormack could switch parties. I think there was talk of John McEwen switching parties when Holt disappeared. Alternatively, if the Liberals found themselves completely bereft, they could allow a Nat to lead the Coalition with a notional Liberal leader. There is precedent for this when Arthur Fadden led the UAP/Country Party coalition when Menzies resigned in WWII. Screw that, why not Barnaby

    Strange things can happen

  30. Part of me wants Dutton to hold onto his seat because his return to parliament will create a peroblem for the LNP going forward. If he’s gone then the LNP can simply heap all the blame on him and reboot. I’d much rather that the internal lib-shit wars continue forever and a day.

    However most of me wants to indulge in the schadenfreude of Dutts losing his seat (and also ensuring that a wooden stake is completely driven through his political heart).

  31. Arky says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:46 pm
    “OK, bye from me. Final post on this site”

    Thank Christ.

    Mate, every government of every stripe in Australia has a big mass citizenship ceremony on Australia Day every year. It’s not a Labor conspiracy. Get out of whatever silos are spinning you this bullshit about immigrants taking over the world – and it IS bullshit.
    ==================
    Excellent post, Arky.
    Thanks for this.

  32. Jen, I catch the train from Woy Woy to Mascot twice per week on average. Example, yesterday I caught the 6:58 (which was on time both day) yet yesterday my arrival into Mascot was 20 minutes different to today! That is generally the average.

    There is never one week where on both days the trains actually arrive on time. I don’t blame the government for that, my point is that it’s been average for as long as I can remember.

  33. @ B.S Fairman
    I have no idea why Michael McCormack is there. I can only think that someone from sportsbet has taken leader of the Liberal party and being equivalent to the leader of the Coalition. Maybe thats in case the Nationals have more seats than the Liberals after the election!

  34. No surprise to see Freshwater go against the trend imo

    3.5 / 6 final polls have now hit my rules of no more than 2/3rds combined primary vote and the Greens in the teens. It will be interesting to see where it lands when all the polls are in

    Freshwater with a cross bench of 12 lol

    #25in25

  37. Bellwether says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:57 pm
    Paul A
    Nooooooooooo, don’t go……………at least ring the psephology helpline, they may be able to help you navigate through your crisis.
    =================
    Snort!!!!!!

  38. Trent Slaters @ #721 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 9:01 pm

    Cat, the public transport is no better now than it was under the last ALP government.

    And they’ve been in for how long? Get real! They’re continuing with the Metro. They’re doing the Harbour Tunnel. They’re scoping, with the federal government, a High Speed Rail connection between Newcastle and Sydney. AND they’ve told the Tollway usurers that they can stick their regular increases up their jumpers! That’s what Labor governments do. Also, North Connex was a Labor initiative which the Liberals took over after Labor got kicked to the curb. So they can do roads too. As the Prime Minister proved when he was Transport Minister. 🙂

  39. Omar C @ 8.58 pm

    Very true. We have one more Newspoll to go. The very last Newspoll in 2019 was 51.5 to Shorten.

  41. Three cheers for Dear Leader, Sir William Bowe.

    Your work, Sir, during the campaign has been extraordinary.

    Thank you. It is appreciated. If I may speak for all of us for one moment – You’re a star!

  42. Historic Election – I doubt Blackjack would have been acceptable to the 1960’s Liberal party room as a leader.

  43. B. S. Fairman says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:54 pm
    The so-called “Wong stuff up” was only really of interest to those inside “the parkway”*. At worst it was to suggest that the issue of indigenous recognition might have to one day need to be revisited – which is probably stating the bleeding oblivious as Indigenous affairs is an ongoing saga.

    * I use inside “the Parkway” as Canberra lacks a “Beltway”. Basically it is only of interest to political junkies (and perhaps those people who think Indigenous people should go back to where they came from).
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Hanson is afraid that ‘we are in danger of being swamped by Indigenous people’.

  46. Centre @ #677 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 8:28 pm

    Loudmouth @ 8.18 pm.

    Looks like the tongue tie and muzzle have failed to work…

    Why don’t you stick to showing childish images of bald men, in which you certainly would not be out of place, that’s all your intelligence allows – you egg-headed high school dropout!

    Stop stalking got it… otherwise, you won’t want to meet me again, 10 seconds I’ll make you better looking.

    You’re a runt, Centre. 😐

  47. C@tmomma she said “everyone should go there to receive the wisdom of Omar, and the polling stuff is also quite good”

  48. You know what’s sad if Peter didn’t listen to the far right nut jobs he would have been in a better place but no he had to listen to them well not sad for Labor and me what an idiot he was all but he could win he say well the difference between Scott Morrison and Peter it’s got Morrison was more popular than Bill Shorten and now Anthony more popular Peter and looking at those fresh water poles about what more people are concerned about health welfare hmm yeah I set it before I say again Australia likes this Social Security

  49. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:05 pm

    Part of me wants Dutton to hold onto his seat because his return to parliament will create a peroblem for the LNP going forward. If he’s gone then the LNP can simply heap all the blame on him and reboot. I’d much rather that the internal lib-shit wars continue forever and a day.

    However most of me wants to indulge in the schadenfreude of Dutts losing his seat (and also ensuring that a wooden stake is completely driven through his political heart).’
    ========================
    If they have the hide to make Cash Shadow AG then they can make Dutton Shadow for Indigenous Affairs.

  50. “Trent Slaterssays:
    Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm
    Labor 33%, Libs 37%, Greens 12%. No Phon figures.
    2PP national ALP 51.5%
    _________________________________

    With that primary for the Liberals the TPP would be lower than 51.5%, I’d be thinking more like 50.5%. I would suggest that this is more realistic of what we will see on Saturday. When I did my forecasting, I estimated an ALP primary of 32% and the Liberal primary of 38% and came up with 50.1% to 49.9%.”

    When you did your “forecasting”?

    Lol! What did that entail?

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