First up, two other things to note. There is another new post below this one exploring the minutiae of pollsters’ preference flows, a subject of great relevance to much of what is discussed below. The other is the Poll Bludger’s pre-election donation drive. On with the show:
• RedBridge Group has a national poll that gives the Coalition its poorest result yet, recording both major parties at 34% of the primary vote – up one in Labor’s case and down two for the Coalition ” with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up a point to 8%. This includes a timely two-party preferred result based on respondent-allocated preferences, in addition to the usual one based on 2022 election flows (a matter explored in very great depth in the aforementioned other post), both of which come in at 53-47 in favour of Labor. This is despite 73% out of the 7% One Nation vote (with a duly very small sample) going to the Coalition, compared with 64.3% in 2022. The report notes that that this improvement in isolation would have added 0.8% to the Coalition’s two-party result. Small-sample state breakdowns have Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales and 56-44 in Victoria, and trailing 57-43 in Queensland. The accompanying report features voluminous further detail on factors influencing vote choice. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1011.
• A new outfit called Spectre Strategy, whose managing director Morgan James was until recently with Freshwater Strategy, has a federal poll with results well in line with the general consensus: Labor has a two-party lead of 53-47 based on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 10%. Anthony Albanese is credited with a 47-35 lead over Peter Dutton on preferred prime minister. Among other things, the full report contains breakdowns for the four largest states along with useful (albeit small sample) age-by-gender result, one finding being that the Greens are twice as strong among young women as men. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 2000.
• DemosAU has two polls offering combined results of selected marginal seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and has a large sample national poll on the way), the former of which puts meat on the bones of suggestions One Nation is surging in seats such as those covered, namely Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke. Labor is down 7.2% on the primary vote to 32%, of which the Liberals yield only a one-point gain to 31%, while One Nation is up 5.6% to 10%. The Greens are up 3.2% to 13%, and Trumpet of Patriots manages only 2%, down 4.5% on the United Australia Party result. Labor holds a two-party lead of 53-47 based on 2022 election flows: if the Liberals really are doing as well out of One Nation as some have suggested, that may reduce to 51-49. The poll was conducted April 13 to 22 from a sample of 924.
• The DemosAU Sydney marginal seats poll covers Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa and is much better for Labor, who are credited with a two-party lead of 56-44, a swing in their favour of 1.3%. Both major parties are well down on the primary vote, Labor to 36% (down 4.3%) and Liberal to 28% (down 7.4%), mostly accounted for by 11% for independents (there are four independent candidates across the three seats, none particularly high profile, compared with only one last time), with the Greens on 10% (up 1.4%). All three seats are highly multicultural and duly weak for One Nation. The poll was conducted April 13 to 27 from a sample of 905.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review offers an overview based on the views of “multiple campaign strategists and frontbenchers from Labor, the Coalition and the Greens”. Most of the assessments offered are conventional wisdom, though Labor appears hopeful about Griffith and Bonner along with more fancied Brisbane; a Liberal source goes so far as to say they “think we will win Werriwa”; Labor is rated a better chance of retaining Chisholm than was earlier thought; both sides expect Labor to hold Tangney, and give Labor a “slight edge” in Lyons; and Liberals are pessimistic about Bradfield, though “early anxiety over independents in Wannon and Forrest had faded”. A Liberal source did not concur with a view related by “senior Labor and Liberal sources” in The Advertiser that Sturt was “increasingly likely to fall to Labor”. The West Australian reports a Liberal source saying Curtin is 51-49, without revealing in whose favour.
• A survey of 2000 respondents aged 18 to 29, conducted by RedBridge Group and Monash University for the Y Australia, features various qualitative and quantitative findings together with voting intention findings of Labor 33%, Greens 32% and Liberal 23%. Half the sample was drawn nationally and the other half from “30 Commonwealth electoral divisions with large concentrations of young voters”.
Freshwater- a broken down, failed pathetic ‘research’ arm of the LNP.
If even the best they can cook up is a 2pp of 51.5 for Labor then you know the Libs are in big trouble.
Cigarettes/vaping would have to be Labor’s biggest policy disaster. They’ve killed the tax revenue, made cigarettes more available to kids, put vapers back on the cigs and caused a violent crimewave. But as a hail mary I doubt it will do much for the coalition.
Free cigarettes for some. Miniature vapes for others.
”
Alpha Zerosays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:44 pm
”
Graph Looks like a Sine wave.
twirling,twirling towards freedom
pied piper says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 10:12 pm
A Labor government that could only legislate with Green support would not last 48 hours. Labor will never give an inch to the Greens. Ever. Were the Greens to attempt to extort treasure from Labor a new election would certainly follow. And Labor would win it. Very, very easily. Sometime-Lib voters would delight in giving Labor the means to despatch the Greens. No problem at all. The Greens know this, of course. Defeat in such an election would destroy them.
Who would the Greens pref in a stand-off election. If they run in open opposition to Labor their PV will collapse. They know it.
”
Trent Slaterssays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm
Labor 33%, Libs 37%, Greens 12%. No Phon figures.
2PP national ALP 51.5%
_________________________________
With that primary for the Liberals the TPP would be lower than 51.5%, I’d be thinking more like 50.5%. I would suggest that this is more realistic of what we will see on Saturday. When I did my forecasting, I estimated an ALP primary of 32% and the Liberal primary of 38% and came up with 50.1% to 49.9%.
”
You are giving bad name to other Trent, who is really good with Psephology.
Omar Comin’ @ #805 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 10:28 pm
Dont blame me I voted for Kodos
“Trent Slaterssays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:49 pm
The Revisionist, yes I know. And I think they’re incorrect.
I’ve said on more than one instance that the Liberal primary generally increases during an election. Even a campaign as poorly run as this, I expect the Liberals to perform better than the current polls.
The average of the LNP primary a month or so out from the election was give or take 36.5% so I’ve added a slight amount to that figure. A slight guestimate based on the historical trend of just over 1% (although I lowered expectation).
Most years I’ll bet on seat overlays although this year I’m not sure there is a lot of value. Maybe the Greens to win Brisbane and Ryan at $4.50 or hold all four for $4.50 but other than that the market is kind of right.”
Yeah so that is fantasy land stuff. I reckon I told you so earlier in the election campaign. There may be a general tendency for polls to shift towards the incumbent. The two elections Labor has been the incumbent this century it went in with artificially inflated numbers due to leadership change honeymoons.
It is one level of cognitive dissonance to ignore this superior explanation and continue to believe the illogical theory that it is infact party X that naturally attracts a swing during the campaign becasue of “reasons”.
It is an altogether Olympian level to continue to believe so when the polls have captured a 4 to 5% PV drop during the election……That is, we are 2 days from election day and all the pollsters are showing a massive loss of votes to the coalition during the campaign! But you reckon it’ll be 1% higher than it was at the start of the campaign cos of your “theory”
“The poor, misunderstood Houthi rebels didn’t stand a chance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zx6SE-rY-I”
Great fanfic. How does a radar warning receiver “light up” about a missile which the voiceover says is infrared guided? And a navy jet isn’t going to call itself “Fox Three” because Fox is their brevity code for their own missile launches.
I’m sure there are strikes going on but that video is nonsense.
Does it end with one of the US fighters going into the drink?
I wonder how things would shake out in a double dissolution if the LNP and Labor designed their HTVs to get rid of the Greens.
The smaller parties like the Greens have always wanted proportional representation for the House. But the way things are going, that might look increasingly appealing to the Liberals as well. As of now they have very few safe seats left: so many of those previously in that category have fallen to, or are vulnerable to, independent candidates. But if (as a hypothetical example) the House was elected from 30 five-member divisions, there would be a lot more safe Liberal seats, since they would be pretty much guaranteed one or two seats in every division.
New solution to the housing crisis – collect the rent payable for the Greens living rent free in the head of Labor hack, woke, partisans and we will have enough cash to create a real housing fund that can build 100,000 (real) houses every year.
And you get to keep negative gearing!!
Just sayin…
Labor are favourite in 76 seats a net loss of two which according to the ABC pendulum would require a swing of 0.41. 52.13 -0.41 = 51.72 so that is the seat betting markets implied 2pp.The guardian poll tracker has it 51.65.
TropicalWonderland @ #807 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 10:48 pm
The running price of dust isn’t going as well as that unfortunately.
That Freshwater poll definitely seems suss. Consider:
* No ONP; really? They’ve been consistently polling around 8% of late and you come up with nothing?
* A big fat 18% for OTH; AEF has them on 15.2% (did you hide ONP in there to make it easy to fudge?)
* LNP Primary 37%; Current AEF 34.3%
* 2PP 51.5 – 48.5 ALP – LNP; if I use the following preference shares for LNP (from 2022 with ONP bumped up) I get 52.8 – 47.2:
GRN 0.1434
PHON 0.718
UAP 0.6186
OTH 0.4527
Plus, they are an LNP aligned outfit.
I think they deserve a downgrade on their confidence rating when aggregating poll results.
Australian Election Forcasters has up to EIGHT Greens in the forecast. At least 25 in 25.
Newspoll prediction.
ALP 30
COALITION 33
GREENS 13
ONE NATION 9
OTHERS 15
2PP 52/48 to ALP
I reckon the internal party polling might have finally broken for Labor. You could just see the light was gone from Taylor and Dutton’s eyes today
Jimbobsays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:03 pm
Australian Election Forcasters has up to EIGHT Greens in the forecast. At least 25 in 25.
—
8 GRN seats is the 95th Percentile; that means they expect it to occur only 5% of the time. Mostly likely range (25 -75 Percentile band) is 3 to 5. The median (most likely number is 4), which is what I’ve got as well.
Kirsdarke at 9.48 pm
Bullwinkel is the new seat so it would get Labor to 79 without losses if it is won by Labor, as looks likely.
You could then see Labor lose 4 of those 6 seats before needing other wins.
Labor should win Tangney. Sam Lim looked very confident today.
Given both the general swing to Labor in NSW on BT and candidate factors, Labor should win both Bennelong and Gilmore.
Shorten said on 7.30 that Aston is still difficult for Labor, and Macnamara is a possible loss given it is likely close.
So Labor might win only 4 of those 6 seats, and lose another seat elsewhere (such as Paterson), but still not need other wins to get to 76, although other wins are likely given the polls.
Other likely wins include Sturt and Leichhardt at a minimum. That would get Labor to 78, assuming Chisholm and McEwen are held.
As Megalogenis predicted, Sydney and Melbourne seats are crucial.
The Libs look like failing to gain any seats in Sydney (Paterson is further N), and picking up 1 or only 2 in all of Melbourne. They know they have lost.
MABWM says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:11 pm
“Three cheers for Dear Leader, Sir William Bowe.
Your work, Sir, during the campaign has been extraordinary.
Thank you. It is appreciated. If I may speak for all of us for one moment – You’re a star!”
====================================================================
I absolutely concur with your sentiments MABWM.
HwP if you can’t share your toys with your brother you can go and sit outside until you are ready to do so
Pedant at 10.39 pm
Correct re the Libs and PR. Promo Morrison was all over himself with his ministries and totally lacked foresight about his party’s plight.
Hypothetically, he could (with the support of the Greens) have switched to PR for the Reps before the 2022 election. Then the Teal albatross would never have graced the Libs.
That scenario probably never occurred to him or his advisers.
Two slight correction there is a new seat in WA in which Labor is favourite so of the 78 they currently hold they are favourite in 75 of them a net loss of three, actually a swing of between o.91 and 1.69 according to the ABC pendulum that is a 2pp range of 51.22 and 50.44.
The Guardian polltracker range is 49.9-53.0 the median of which is 51.55.Polling companies are between 51.5 and 53 with I guess one last newspoll to come.Head to head betting is following the polling companies, seat betting more in line with the guardian model.
Why when the ALP don’t like a poll they say it is faulty or they are corrupt. Freshwater are a company that makes much of its money from polling, it is a business, they want to be successful and make money. Think about it, what is in it for them to release a poll increasing the support for the liberal party, nothing. At this late stage the better a polling company is to forecasting the election the more its reputation increases therefore the more money the company makes. Maybe though the polling they do for the liberal party has influenced tonight’s Poll but again this would only be because their liberal polling indicates the same polling numbers and last but not least the poll even though is not as good as some for the ALP it is still an election winning result for the ALP. Come to think of it which company does the polling for the ALP they may also be a more reliable poll.
Dr Doolittle
I am feeling more confident that the only two jurisdictions Labor could lose seats are NSW and Victoria. I am hoping for about four pick ups to balance any potential losses there.
Hoping for 78, but 76 will do. In fact as long as Labor get a second term I will be happy.
Aside from all their other problems one of the Electoral ‘structural’ problems for the Coalition was always that in their potential ‘best’ state of Victoria there were only a few low hanging Labor fruit – then a big gap to the next rung of seats. It always seemed unlikely they would get to that next rung, especially as the tactics to try and get those seats were likely going to make them less likely to win back Teal seats like Kooyong and Goldstein.
In the 2022 Victorian State election the Liberals got big swings in those outer suburban seats on an arc to the west of Melbourne, but they still didn’t win any of them.
PS – William, I just saw ‘Pollbludger’ get that mention on 730 (late replay)
Time for the Nats to distance themselves from the Libs. Also they should split and become either the agriculture Nats or mining Nats. The more parties we have the more choice for us punters. Then we’d have greens/teals/agriculture nats/mining nats/Independents. A real choice which would be great for transparency and democracy. ALP should also split into approximately 3 different parties. ALP has no idea who they represent. Do they represent workers/environment/big business/unemployed/gaming industry/salmon farming/old growth logging etc etc. And Greens need to break up to represent the environment or communism. Time for us punters to have a real choice. One Nation can still be the party of racism.
It is the Newspoll again one of the Polls with the closest results. Interesting that the two Pollsters that do the work for both parties have some of the closest outcome for the Election.
The nightly west Australian now.
Latika M Bourke goes after Wong.
It will swing votes Wongs comment saying it “blasted a hole in labor’s meticulous campaign”…
Let’s all vote against the same same party. Vote Green/Minor/Independents and get democracy and transparency back. At least 25 in 25. You can do it. The duopoly of Lab/Lib need to be broken up like the supermarkets/banks/utility and insurance companies need to be broken up. Competition needs to return to the political spectrum. Put Labor and Coalition last and second last.
Haven’t posted in quite a while, but I’ve been here since 2004.
My predictions.
LNP will be smashed, with their worst result since 1946.
ALP 2PP between 53-53.5%
ALP GAINS: Moore, Sturt, Braddon, Bass, Deakin, Banks, Dickson, Leichardt, Brisbane
ALP LOSSES: Aston
LNP LOSSES TO IND: Wannon, Calare, Bradfield, Cowper
SEAT TOTALS: ALP 86, LNP 46, GRN 3, OTH 15
It will be a dogs-breakfast on the night with the decline in the primary vote of the majors (especially LNP) allowing for numerous “exclusion-order” issues in seats such as Lyne, Paterson, Groom, Wide Bay, Monash and Flinders creating the opportunity for additional independent gains. Kevin Bonham will have a field day! As well as doing poorly in inner and middle ring suburbs, the LNP will also suffer a major hit to its vote in the regions.
They really better hope that Andrew Hastie holds in Canning, which I think will be touch and go.
If we keep the current same same uni party duopoly we could end up with a TRUMP like PM. Vote minor and independents. At least 25 in 25
Labor majority is 1.53 yet they are only favourite in 76 seats – they need 76 seats for a majority, real disconnect between those two markets .People taking the 1.53 are either not looking at the seat betting or dismissive of it.
If you think 1.53 is a fair price there must be some value to be had in the seat betting. Interesting to see if Labor firm into favourite in four more seats because according to the ABC pendulum 52.18 gets them to 80 52.65 gets them to 81.According to the polling company aggregates and the head to head betting markets they should be favourite in at least 80 seats.
pied piper at 11.43 pm
Ms Latika Bourke is a socialite worthy of a column in a low level gossip magazine. Her idol, Julie Bishop, if still enrolled in Curtin, would probably vote for Kate Chaney. She saw Dutton at first hand and wasn’t impressed.
Howlin Wolves, I think you need to brush up on your probability. There might be 10 seats say where the odds in every seat are 51% LNP win, 49% ALP win. So LNP favourites in every seat. You’d still expect 4-5 Labor wins out of those 10 seats.
The opposite is also true, Labor can’t be assumed to win every seat where it has slight favoritism.
So the overall win probability implied by the odds does not correlate to the aggregate of seats where Labor is favourite.
To follow on, take Sturt as an example. I don’t know how to convert betting odds to implied win probability but it probably implies something like a 33% chance of a Labor win. In isolation if you had to guess you’d therefore say Labor will lose it. But if you add two more seats with the same odds then chances are Labor snags one of them (roughly a 70% chance of a 1/3 probability event happening at least once in three independent events).
Rocket Rocket at 11.35 pm
Yes, and you have to stretch to see a probable Labor loss in NSW given the polling. Paterson is the most likely. There is a former Lib mayor standing as an independent. Yet the Libs win Paterson usually when they have done some things right in their campaign.
The lesson for Victoria was clear with the Werribee by-election when the Libs gained little in terms of primary.
Jimbob @ #826 Thursday, May 1st, 2025 – 11:55 pm
If dimensions were warped and Donald Trump became Prime Minister of Australia, he’d be dumped within a year. Our parliamentary system doesn’t allow for such a tyrant, at least not as easily as the US system. There’s no way someone like Trump could do what he’s doing and still maintain loyalty as Party Leader, or at least 76 votes in the House of Reps.
Jimbob says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:39 pm and Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 11:48 pm
hahahahahahahahaha
indeed, shake things up a bit and make full use of the preferential system we have at our disposal!
150 parties (independents) might be a little unwieldy but 20 or so appropriately named should be manageable as a start. haha
… most importantly, to get people voting for their values (appropriately disclosed), and to get away from spurious attempts at grand strategies that attempt to vote for parties that don’t represent their stated values (but claim to) to allegedly achieve their stated values, despite not voting for the party that do have those values, and to get those same parties away from advocating for positions that are claimed to not represent their values in order to achieve their true values by convincing those who don’t have their values to vote for their values.
If that sounds completely illogical it is both because of the errors in my sentence, the briskness of putting the joke together and because of the actual madness of our approach to deciding who is in our interests to vote for or who’s values align with our own. The point been that it could be a lot more simple than we make it if we weren’t so partisan, so deferential to celebrity and the like, too un-self-reflecting, or too resistant to acknowledging when we’ve been taken for a walk down the garden path, or when we are wrong and when we might need to review or change our ways.
Does anyone know of any reports/good references to look in to regarding the results of https://www.abc.net.au/news/vote-compass or similar projects compared to regular polling and/or election results?
Or maybe we just go ahead and amend the voting system to require everyone (by strict compulsion of course) to fill out a ~votecompass type survey and then automatically have their vote ascribed to an appropriate representative in parliament?
hehe (joking but serious but joking but )
I know all that mate. I am assuming over 151 seats it all comes out in the wash.Like in horseracing favourites win about 32% of races I don’t know who is going to win any one race but over 150 races the favourite will win just short of fifty of them.
If Labor are favourite in 76 seats they should win about 76 of them which will give them a 2pp preferred somewhere between 50.4 and 51.7.
Polls are suggesting they will get about 52.6 which suggest they should be favourite in more than 76 seats more like 80 or 81. The seat market is closer to the guardian model 51.65 2pp than the polling company averages.You are not as clever as you think you are.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 10:39 pm
“I wonder how things would shake out in a double dissolution if the LNP and Labor designed their HTVs to get rid of the Greens.”
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Rudd had the perfect opportunity to obliterate the Greens in 2007/8, but he was too gutless to call a double dissolution election over the Greens refusal to pass the CPRS which was voted for by the electorate in the 2007 landslide.
After May 3rd, we can all get back to our boring old lives and get behind Hawthorn winning their 14th flag. Before then vote same same uni party out. Get democracy and transparency back by voting Independents/greens/minors. At least 25 in 25. Go HAWKS
OK boomer. Lab or Lib.
Younger generations don’t hold that same belief. Others it is. At least 25 in 25.
For a bloke who professes to be in the mould of one J.Howard, dropping costings at 5 minutes to midnight hardly shows that PDuzz has much faith in his broader economic chops.
Looks like parts of the Coalition are already focused on the post mortem, blamestorming and fighting over the spoils of defeat. Possibly meaning their own internal polling is just a teensy bit sh*t. In the words of Fry and Laurie: Majorie may have won the war, but she sure as hell isn’t winning this battle.
Anyhoo. Best trot of to bed. Big day tomorrow. I expect lots of Trumpet of Puppets messages tomorrow. If you are bored, their candidate photo gallery is a thing of no small beauty. A small number of glamour shots, but veritable conga line of scanned passport photos and webcam grabs. And a few guys that could be plausibly auditioning for the coveted role as of ‘river boy 3’ in a forthcoming Home and Away episode.
The biggest opposition to Preferential Voting would be the Nationals, they would get obliterated and lose their influence to One Nation.
Let’s say they shrunk the Senate down to 40 in order to get 80 HOR seats.
NSW – 24
VIC – 20
QLD – 16
WA – 8
SA – 5
TAS – 5 (3 by quota, but you have to have “five members at least in each original state” as per Sect 24 by my interpretation)
ACT – 1
NT – 1
PR would return based on 2022 with my dodgy rounding to the nearest whole with minors below 1 seat being given 1 seat in order of vote percentage until none left (which means giving seats to people with under 20,000 first preference votes!):
NSW – 6 LIB, 2 NAT, 8 LAB, 2 GRN, 1 ON, 1 UAP, 1 LDP, 1 ANJ, 1 SFF, 1 AntiVax
VIC – 7 LIB, 1 NAT, 8 LAB, 3 GRN, 1 UAP
QLD – 7 LNP, 5 LAB, 2 GRN, 1 ON, 1 UAP
WA – 3 LIB, 3 LAB, 1 GRN, 1 ON
SA – 2 LIB, 2 LAB, 1 GRN
TAS – 2 LIB, 1 LAB, 1 GRN, JLN 1
ACT – 1 LAB
NT – 1 LAB
Totals:
29 Labor
20 Liberal
10 Greens
7 LNP
3 National
3 One Nation
3 UAP
1 LDP
1 Animal Justice
1 Shooters
1 Antivax
1 JLN
Right-Wing Nutjob Alliance = 39
Left-Wing CFMEUMarxistAnimal Network = 40
We really gonna give the balance of power to Jacqui Lambie?
I suppose you could go to 42 Senators and give the four largest states another HOR seat which should get you at least 3 additional far-right members to overcome Labor.
It would be a mess and it would destroy the Nationals.
Is it me or have the newscorp papers gone very quiet on election news?
Odds for LNP to get 50 or fewer seats now $8, down from $21 yesterday.
The point of my original post which went straight through to the keeper for one particular contributor is if you have faith in bludgertrack there must be four or five seats where Labor are not favourite but should be providing the opportunity for some betting opportunities.
If on the other hand you are more inclined to seat betting guardian view of things then Labor minority at 2-1 offers slight value as Labor are only favourite in 76 seats and might be a better than 33% chance of a falling seat or two short.
reckon if you’re pinning your hopes on people reading the Westralian in the next two days, you’re in a bit of strife