The Australian reports Newspoll finds very little change on last week, with Labor continuing to lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and the primary vote remaining at 34% for Labor and 35% for the Coalition. The Greens are down a point to 11% and One Nation is up one to 8%. The only detail offered on leaders’ ratings at this stage is that Anthony Albanese’s net approval is unchanged at minus 9 while Peter Dutton is down two to minus 24. Albanese led Dutton by 51-35 as better PM (52-36 previously). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1254.
UPDATE: Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approval and 52% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is steady on 35% approval and up two on disapproval to 59%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister shifts from 52-36 to 51-35. The poll also finds 39% holding Labor deserving of re-election, up five since February, with 48% favouring the alternative option of “it’s time to give someone else a go”, down five. Thirty-eight per cent rate themselves “confident the Coalition is ready to govern”, down seven, with 62% not confident, up seven.
Charts of the Day: today we take a three-part look at the gender gap with one chart showing a trend of male-minus-female Labor two-party preferred (converted from the primary vote using my own preference estimates) going back to early 2020, as measured by Essential Research (the most data-rich source available on this point); and two showing how Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns have tracked net approval for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton among men and women going back to the start of the term. The first of these suggests an existing gap of around three points blew out to upwards of seven in early 2021, before settling in at around five points thereafter. Albanese’s ratings are notable for their lack of a gender gap, outside of the reliable tendency of women to rate themselves uncommitted in higher numbers. In contrast to Scott Morrison towards the end of his reign, there was no consistent gap for Peter Dutton in the first half of the term, but one emerged in 2024 (ranging from two to six points), and it’s widened since the start of the year (seven points in the January-to-March aggregation, ten in last week’s aggregation of polling since the budget).
How is this possible ? Apparently Liberal internal polling has them winning next Saturday
Dr Bonham…
My 2PP aggregate following #Newspoll now 52.6 to ALP. The Newspoll which is not especially strong for Labor carries a high weight at the moment pending further polls as everything else is over a week old in average data age terms.
I think the ALP vs Coalition 2PP is hiding the threat to the Coalition from Independents – needs a new horse race paradigm, now that the seat tally is starting to reflect.
Could this be the ‘narrowing’?? Dutton has stopped the PV decline for the Libs, give him a month of this trend and and he will be back in front.
If Labor plus Greens – 34 + 11 = 45, is higher than Coalition plus ON -35 + 8 = 43, then the Coalition are not ‘winning by 6pm next Saturday’. Period.
How is One Nation increasing its support? What are they offering voters other than more Trumpian grievance? It’s ridiculous that people are attracted to that nonsense.
A PHD suggestion for the aspiring pol sci student.
1800 Medicare made a bit of a splash this morning but not lasting until the afternoon – I theorize the sub-billion figure as a reason.
I suggest a statistical correlation analysis of the monetary size of a policy announcement with some metric of media coverage. I suspect a political consulting future awaits for anyone who proves the sweet spot.
Dr Fumbles McStupid says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 7:29 pm
Could this be the ‘narrowing’?? Dutton has stopped the PV decline for the Libs, give him a month of this trend and and he will be back in front.
_________
Perhaps not the narrowing, but a ceiling effect to the swing that we have seen in elections gone by.
Thats 4 weeks of 52-48 from Newspoll.
It would be good see another Respondent allocated preferences to get an idea on preference flows.
I’m not sure this is how the result will look next week. The biggest issue is trying to line up preferences for a TPP.
My gut is thinking the ALP primary probably closer to 33 and the Liberal primary probably closer to 36/37. Either way, the government will be returned.
Well if the COALition starts at 57 seats. Calare and Wannon look very shaky for them as well….Its a steep road from potentially a 55 seat starting position to get anywhere near to even contemplating minority Govt for themselves
“ How is One Nation increasing its support? What are they offering voters other than more Trumpian grievance? It’s ridiculous that people are attracted to that nonsense.”
That because the two major parties are offering little.
Confessions @ #7 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:31 pm
Probably something to do with the Big Gina-Pauline alliance going on behind the scenes.
On course and no surprises. 🙂
Strange though. saw it reported today that Dutton is going to be swinging through Teal seats in the final week. Why bother??
He seems to have already written off those seats with the announcement of the nuclear brainfart. And then …… preference deal at the last minute with PHON.
Ok, that didn’t go well in 2017 W.A. with Liberal voters.
Maybe the attitude is different in the east, but how well will that go down with ex-Liberal voters that voted in Teals, or with Libs in seats that may fall to Teals this time around?? I would think not very well.
Confessions says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 7:31 pm
How is One Nation increasing its support? What are they offering voters other than more Trumpian grievance? It’s ridiculous that people are attracted to that nonsense.
*********
The Libs preferencing them has given Liberal voters ‘permission’ to vote PHON. Same positioning but one isn’t doing a slapstick comedy routine.
Really all interest turns to the size and makeup of the crossbench. Hard to see it not getting bigger. Hard to see that the LNP won’t be the chief loser … again.
2.6% swing, if uniform, the LNP lose 11 seats, Deakin thru Banks. Hmmm.
Trent Slaters @ #14 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:35 pm
And? It can’t be the first time in people’s lives that things are disappointing for them. It certainly isn’t the first time in my lifetime, but you don’t see me sallying forth to embrace white nationalism and having a frickin self induced pity party.
We’ve just commemorated Anzac Day so I’d say to these grievance junkies to suck it up and find a little bit of the Anzac spirit and grow some balls. Life is never that bad that you have to turn to racist assholes to sort shit out for you.
A week before the last election Newspoll had ALP ahead 54-46. Hope for the Coalition yet.
ON support is mainly based on antagonism to high levels of immigration plus the “anti-woke” attitudes related to indigenous rights/welcome to country, rights for women and minorities and general objection to government regulation.
not exactly the tory hope extinguishing steel rain of coffin nails that I was hoping for but I’ll take it
The Albonator 734pm
The biggest barrier for the Coalition is the Teals and Independents. If they don’t win back most of those seats (highly unlikely) they can’t possibly even get in range for minority government. I think in the next term this may dawn on them (or not!).
Today I had the thought that Labor will not lose any seats in Tasmania, ACT, NT, SA, Queensland or WA. Which, if true, would leave only NSW and Victoria for the Coalition to make gains off Labor – and there is just not enough lowish-hanging fruit there for them to make much of an impact.
So in the same way the DLP kept Labor out of power here in Victoria for a generation by taking many previously Labor (mainly Catholic) voters and funnelling their votes to the Liberals, the Teals taking previously safe Liberal seats seem certain to keep the Coalition out of power for some time.
Basically until the Coalition get past Climate Change denial.
Yes, I’ll just wait over here for that to happen … crickets … tumbleweeds …
@Holden – don’t be silly.
That’s not how it works – the LNP need to gain votes across the country to have a prayer. Nothing here suggests that.
Another possibility is a long-term Senate strategy.
Get 3-4 One Nation Senators elected in 2025, then they’d still be there for the 2028-2031 Government, whether it be another Labor term where they can just block, or a Coalition term where they can help make their favoured structural legislative agenda pass.
‘Rocket Rocket says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 7:43 pm
The Albonator 734pm
The biggest barrier for the Coalition is the Teals and Independents….’
===================
Nope. The biggest barrier by far is Labor.
This is about as good a result as Dutton could hope for given the week he has had.
Interesting stuff in crude numbers, but in the US Presidential election the majors received support from maybe 65% of the electorate. Another 35% did not bother to vote.
In Oz, the majors seem to have about the same general support but the other 35% of the electorate is obliged to vote….maybe not for the majors (and I include the Nationals 3% of the vote for 10 seats or so as being part of the ‘majors)…but it does mean smaller political groups ranging from the far right, the Teals, Greens and other assortment, can appeal to a disparate third group.
I would argue this makes the kind of democracy we have in Oz not such a bad working model.
I suspect the trend will be for the majors to continue to lose some ground over the next few years – as some have hoped for here – and maybe our scene will be similar to many European countries where coalitions will be formed of like-minded political groups.
The Lib PV…hmmm….votes still locked up in QLD??? In which case the Lib vote must be in decline in the RoA. Dutton pitching as hard as he can to the reactionary core. He needs them to stick…
“How is One Nation increasing its support?”
Own a local shop and meet thousands of supposedly ordinary people. Seriously, do you know how many cookers are out there convinced by extreme right wing conspiracy content on the internet: that Trump is a genius: that foreigners are metaphorically if not literally ‘eating the cats, their eating the dogs; that Andrew Tate is great: that chemtrails are a thing: that anything science related is BS.
These people exist and their numbers are growing as more and more people disappear down the conspiracy wormhole
Griff at 7.32 pm
Don’t over interpret these polling figures, from a poll done in a short week between two long weekends.
Why expect there to have been any significant change in a quiet period?
Remarkable that the first paragraph of the news.com.au story (“Newspoll reveals major issue for Peter Dutton days before federal election”) is
“More than half of all voters believe Peter Dutton and the Coalition are not ready to govern the nation, according to the latest Newspoll.
The poll, published by The Australian six days before the May 3 election, revealed 62 per cent of the 1254 voters surveyed between April 21 and 24 did not believe Mr Dutton and his team had what it takes to assume power.
This marks a seven point increase from polling done in February this year.
The feeling was strongest among women, with 66 per cent holding little or no confidence in the Coalition, compared to 58 per cent of men.”
Dutton had better add them to his list of ‘hate media’ (fake media) that his supporters should ignore!
Scullin Albanese… deja vu again?
https://citynews.com.au/2025/libs-channel-labors-unfriendly-ghost-jim-scullin/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Spence @ #22 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:40 pm
Hence my point that these people need to grow some balls. We don’t always get what we want in life, and the sooner these people realise this and start manning up, the sooner we can move on from the divisive, anti-Australian politics of Pauline Hanson. I mean they won with the Voice! There is no voice to parliament so WTF?
Whatever happened to the fighting Aussie spirit? Perhaps it was just a myth after all and Australians were really just waiting for some whiny old illiterate fishwife to turn up and tell them how bad they had it to give them permission to turn into whiny old fishwives themselves.
A steady hand on the tiller and a steady as she goes result. 🙂
So is it 52.4 or 51.6% ?
imacca at 7:36 pm
“Strange though. saw it reported today that Dutton is going to be swinging through Teal seats in the final week. Why bother??”
If the ALP is re-elected with a majority, if the coalition either stalls or loses seats, and if most of the Teals get back, that won’t just highlight problems with the recent campaign, but with the coalition’s entire long-term strategy of ignoring the Teal seats and focussing on outer suburbs. And the history of independents has been that those who can get re-elected are thereafter hard to dislodge. So my guess is that Mr Dutton is already anticipating an avalanche of criticism of his strategy, and is trying to give the impression that he actually didn’t ignore the Teal seats.
Newspoll reveals major issue for Peter Dutton days before federal election
Hannah Moore
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/newspoll-reveals-major-issue-for-peter-dutton-days-before-federal-election/news-story/dcf39fb140d78b543c515bc9d1e4d308
More than half of all voters believe Peter Dutton and the Coalition are not ready to govern the nation, according to the latest Newspoll.
The poll, published by The Australian six days before the May 3 election, revealed 62 per cent of the 1254 voters surveyed between April 21 and 24 did not believe Mr Dutton and his team had what it takes to assume power.
This marks a seven point increase from polling done in February this year.
The feeling was strongest among women, with 66 per cent holding little or no confidence in the Coalition, compared to 58 per cent of men.
Things were not much better for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Labor, with only 39 per cent of voters believing the party should be re-elected for a second term.
This does, however, mark a five point increase since February.
The survey results sat strongly along party lines, with 80 per cent of Coalition voters and 80 per cent of Labor voters believing their party deserved to win.
Mr Albanese’s personal approval remained unchanged from the last Newspoll, sitting at minus nine.
He has maintained his 16 point lead as preferred Prime Minister against Mr Dutton.
Sunday’s Newspoll is the fourth in a row to have Labor ahead on a two-party-preferred vote of 52-48.
Mr Dutton has been repeatedly questioned on the campaign trail about polls, which all show a definitive decline in support since the election was called at the end of March, but has remained adamant he can still win the top job.
Nearly 2.4 million Australians have already cast their votes in just four days of early polling with another five to go.
leftieBrawler @ #1 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:24 pm
Shari Markson to the Principal’s office! 😆
Kirsdarke
I think it’s a bit if a stretch to suggest the Liberals have a long term strategy.
The last few weeks suggest they have still not come to terms with losing in 2022.
Until they acknowledge the reasons why they lost, in particular the seats lost to independents, they will struggle.
To me the campaign proves the old chestnut: the Liberal Party only exists to keep Labor out of office.
Faced with a halfway competent Labor government they struggle.
It’s a pity Albanese’s government is not as good as it could be in many areas.
Maybe a few extra seats in Saturday might embolden him.
Preferencing PHON is just returning Pauline to the fold. Howard had her kicked out and then proceeded to use her policies on immigration, boat people, industrial relations etc. True colours shining through.
Confessions @ #6 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:31 pm
Pauline Hanson speaks to them at their level. With cartoons. 😐
“ON support is mainly based on antagonism to high levels of immigration plus the “anti-woke” attitudes related to indigenous rights/welcome to country, rights for women and minorities and general objection to government regulation.”
So you’re saying these people should have more rights or the rights as everyone else? Your nonsense is confusing. The only thing that made sense was your last five words. That’s where the Liberals have let their supporters down.
Rossmcg @ #40 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:56 pm
By “strategy” I mean the MAGA backers like Big Gina behind the reactionary right of Australia.
My theory, which is mine, is that backing Dutton has turned out to be a dud, so instead they reckon backing One Nation enough so that they get Senators elected in states other than Queensland for 6-year terms will serve their interests better than trying to roll the Sisyphean boulder up the hill and get a Coalition government with a workable Senate elected next week.
Channel 7 advertise an 8pm start but schedule it for 8.12. No wonder nobody trust the bloody media.
This is a psephology discussion site (well, around half the time) and it never ceases to amaze me how almost all contributors completely ignore the ‘margin of error’ of around 3% (both ways, using a 95% confidence interval) which applies to polls with a sample size of around 1000. The actually remarkable thing is that Newspoll comes out at 52:48, week after week. What is the likelihood of that, you may well ask?
William’s special recipe works toto weight the various polls appropriately, based on their methodology and historical performance, and it is certainly better to rely on multiple polls, rather than just one or two.
I am still bemused by the uncanny steadiness of results of polls based on quite small samples, given the daunting difficulties that must arise in achieving ‘accurate’ demographic weightings in those samples, and the mathematical impossibility of snagging a ‘perfect’ sample of 1000+ from a voting cohort of 18 million odd. Margin of error 3%.
Kirsdarke
That’s too complicated for me.
I just know that people way smarter than me figured out a decade ago that Dutton is not the answer to whatever the question was and the liberal cheer squad, which may include people smarter than me, went with him anyway.
They are just bereft of talent and until they find some the future looks bleak.
True Believersays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 7:55 pm
So is it 52.4 or 51.6% ?
__________________
It could be 58 for very strong levels of 52…
Why is Pauline Hanson not on the podium tonight?
As I mentioned in the other thread, this was a short week (2 public holidays) in which a lot of people take holidays because it’s just 3 leave days to get a full 10 days in a row from Good Friday to today – an absolute bargain if you want to go away somewhere.
The paying attention factor would not be high, which might have saved Dutton a bit as this was once again not a good week for him.
All to play for still in the last quarter but Labor kicking with the breeze and the sophomore effect in its marginals.
Still feels like we’re just talking about the difference between minority government vs majority government, and more due to the effects of the redistribution than any major gains by the Opposition.
Boerwar 753pm
Jim Scullin was unlucky – instability in the Nationalist-Country Coalition government ended up in an election being held only eleven months after the previous one in November 1928. Labor won in a landslide against a fractured Coalition on 12th October 1929, but then Wall Street started ‘crashing’ less than two weeks later, heralding the Great Depression.
Many years ago I met someone who used to work in his parents’ Richmond Milk Bar in the 1920s in the morning before going to school. The first time he met Jim Scullin was there, as Jim always bought a newspaper and a small flat Cadbury chocolate bar in the morning on the way to work. The boy called him “Mr Scullin” and Scullin said “No, call me Jim” which he did from then on.
Federal Parliament of course was then based in Melbourne (from 1901 until 1927 and the shift to Canberra), and Scullin would then hop on a tram to go into the city to work (the Feds were in Victoria’s State Parliament Building and the Vics were in Carlton’s Exhibition Buildings). He would talk to people on the tram every day on the way to work and the way home, always engaging with anyone who wanted to talk. And in those days – no aides, no security. Scullin became Deputy Labor leader in 1927 – that boy grew up to be a lifelong Labor supporter.