The fourth and final leaders’ debate will be broadcast on the Seven Network from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by political editor Mark Riley. We can also presumably expect a Newspoll result from The Australian late this afternoon or early this evening, that having been the case on every other Sunday of the campaign, unless it’s been decided to handle things differently in the final week.
• The Australian Community Media newspaper group has published YouGov polling of ten regional seats from an overall sample of 3000. With due caution for the small individual sample sizes and error margins of around 5.5%, the results are as follows:
| L-NP | ALP | GRN | ON | IND | OTH | |
| Ballarat | 23.8% | 38.5% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Braddon | 30.6% | 33.2% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 15.7% | 6.2% |
| Calare | 25.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 13.9% | 38.9% | 8.8% |
| Dickson | 40.3% | 24.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 6.0% |
| Eden-Monaro | 26.0% | 42.2% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% |
| Gilmore | 33.5% | 36.2% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Hunter | 14.6% | 35.8% | 8.8% | 25.3% | 0.5% | 15.0% |
| Lyons | 27.8% | 33.4% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% |
| Paterson | 25.9% | 30.9% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 1.6% |
| Wannon | 33.2% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 35.7% | 6.8% |
| AVERAGE | 28.1% | 29.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 6.9% |
| Swing | -10.0% | -2.2% | +0.8% | +4.8% |
Which is obviously none too encouraging for the Coalition, suggesting the loss of Calare and Wannon to independents and Braddon to Labor, and failure in the crucial Labor marginals of Gilmore and Lyons. The results for Labor-held Hunter suggest One Nation are at least competitive (I haven’t troubled to record Trumpet of Patriots’ numbers, but it may be noted that their candidate for the seat, Prime Minister-presumptive Suellen Wrightson, was on all of 0.5%), and Labor’s primary vote in Paterson is low enough to be of concern for them.
• Paul Sakkal of the Nine Newspapers reports that differing viewpoints within the Labor and Coalition camps about the state of play could be “partly explained by the more optimistic polling coming from Dutton’s pollster, Mike Turner of Freshwater Strategy, which contrasts with the data from Labor pollster Campbell White, who also runs Newspoll”. This is reflected in the published polling of their respective outfits: Freshwater Strategy’s poll last week for the Financial Review had a tie on two-party preferred and the Coalition leading Labor 39% to 32% on the primary vote, while Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48 and the Coalition’s primary vote lead at 35% to 34%. So while the Coalition has been talking up its chances in Whitlam and Gorton, on respective Labor margins of 8.4% and 10.0%, Labor is “preparing to start spending on ads in Liberal-held seats such as Deakin and Menzies”.
• Paul Sakkal’s report further relates that Peter Dutton will spend much of the last week of the campaign on “a blitz of teal-held inner-city seats he has shunned to date”, with the Coalition believing “Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar are tough but winnable seats, in that order”. On Friday, Sakkal’s colleague David Crowe related that Dutton had been avoiding such seats “for good reason”: “Liberals admit that he will drag down the vote for a Liberal candidate in a teal seat if he turns up at a polling station”.
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times cites unspecified “sources” saying former state Nationals leader Mia Davies is running third in the new Perth fringe seat of Bullwinkel, leaving Liberal candidate Matt Moran the favourite, although Labor sources consider their candidate Trish Cook has a “healthy chance”.
• The Poll Bludger’s Charts of the Day (I’ll at least try and make this a regular feature) make an effort to determine if there has been any particular pattern to voting intention by age cohort over the past three years, though I’m not sure how illuminating they are. For three pollsters that have provided such breakdowns with any kind of regularity, these record the difference between each cohort’s voting intention and the overall results, so as to highlight change in relative rather than absolute terms. Only Essential Research’s data was voluminous enough to make trend calculations worthwhile. Unfortunately, anything vaguely interesting for one pollster was uncorroborated or even contradicted by the others. Perhaps I’ll have more luck when I get around to doing gender. I did observe last week that the more interesting story here – namely a cavernous gender gap among young people – would require age-by-gender data, of which very little exists.
jt1983 @ #596 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 6:32 pm
Yes, a rallying message to the faithful. The sort that Albo gave at his similar event earlier today.
TPOF
I thought they were a gift even before Trump did his thing. I just couldn’t see Labor doing any worse than minority government. The Liberals just had too much ground to make up.
Compass on ABC is doing a program on polyamory as something new among millennials.
Ignoring the long history and frequency of polyamory among the Australian islamic community. Somewhat euro-centric
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:32 pm
Here is another datapoint from the AFR, who have been analysis YouTube spending of the majors…
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Wow, I assume this is electorate targeted youtube ads, scary enough that they know where you live but to get electorate specific ones. Too bad if you use adblockers and never see ads on facetube.
Have noticed betting markets move just prior to a major poll dropping.
Well Labor is now $2.00 for majority and $2.37 minority. That’s a big move.
Newspoll wow alright.
True Believer says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:40 pm
Have noticed betting markets move just prior to a major poll dropping.
Well Labor is now $2.00 for majority and $2.37 minority. That’s a big move.
Newspoll wow alright.
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Are you suggesting some inside info on polls affecting the odds, or as a certain poster here would believe, the changing odds driving the polls.
For what it’s worth, Newspoll has dropped at 7pm aest (in around 15 mins) the last few weeks.
Are you suggesting some inside info on polls affecting the odds, or as a certain poster here would believe, the changing odds driving the polls.
I also went into fight or flight lol
“Joe Gildebrand wrote today that he thought it suggested anger. It was an odd comment, but it may not have been done strategically to appeal to the One Nation/Trumpets of Patriots vote like some have speculated. And instead, Peter Dutton was lashing out”
Like Peter Dutton’s lashing out at Penny Wong when he invented the imaginary Indonesian President’s announcement.
This is a very angry man who stores up grudges at every criticism, who lets his temper get away from him and also has no sense of perspective.
Come on Liberal voters. In your guts you know he’s not fit to be Prime Minister.
The debate is 8:10 on channel 7
I would suggest that the Newspoll result is known by more than a dozen people before publishing. There would be the people at Newspoll who process it and check off on it. Then there is a probably a few journalists at the Australian and an editor or two. They probably also seen it to NewsCorp senior staff and Rupes himself.
The spend on Bonner seems massive. I thought even the ABC figured it was decently safe unless Labor is detecting Queensland shifting quickly?
“Wow, I assume this is electorate targeted youtube ads, scary enough that they know where you live but to get electorate specific ones”
They aren’t usually that accurate even if you don’t block.
Bludgers know I’m in Kooyong but the YouTube ad algorithm keeps serving me ads for Chisholm (Carina Garland/Katie Allen), although here and there a Lib attack ad about Monique Ryan comes through.
This has been going on for years and years now, though.
Sorry for being out of the loop, where are these reports about ALP and Bonner chances slash ad spending stemming from?
Bonner should be on any sensible ALP hit list – the margin isn’t huge.
Dutton with his Guardian and ABC comments is just talking to his base.
But the big question is why does he think he needs to do this?
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:39 pm
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:32 pm
Here is another datapoint from the AFR, who have been analysis YouTube spending of the majors…
______________________
Wow, I assume this is electorate targeted youtube ads, scary enough that they know where you live but to get electorate specific ones. Too bad if you use adblockers and never see ads on facetube
—————
Had to laugh listening to a podcast and as i passed one candidates poster the pod played an ad for one of the other candidates.
Dr Fumbles McStupid @ #603 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 6:39 pm
For the first time this election I have been exposed to Labor advertising. Two on a podcast I listen to regularly.
Arky @ #613 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 6:50 pm
Yeah, meanwhile I’m in Ballarat and I get ads for Deakin.
“. Then there is a probably a few journalists at the Australian and an editor or two”
Simon Benson would see it at least an hour before it’s published – he has to write his article.
The person that writes the headline would need 2 hours to contort the results into a positive spin for the Australian readers to digest
I’m in Indi and I get Alp (Scrymgour) ads for Lingiari on 9
I love Murdoch’s pejorative language. Sounds like Advance is at work.
Pedro Molina in Daily Kos:
?1745358767
Is Lawrence Wong the only grown-up in the room?
ABC tv news has the Dutton quote that “by 6pm Saturday we will be in government “. So TrumpIan.
citizensays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 7:04 pm
I love Murdoch’s pejorative language. Sounds like Advance is at work.
Ryan’s desperate, last-minute plea for donors’ cash
Teal MP Monique Ryan has launched a last-minute plea for $20,000 in donations, claiming shadowy conservative forces are conspiring against her. (Oz headline now
————–
Was Ryan’s regular mail out.
Newspoll out — more or less identical to the last with primary votes unchanged and 2PP steady at 52-48. What a fizzer!
Six days to go.
Bluey reckons that Dutton has finally worked out how to handle the hard questions. The press plane is generally about a couple of hours behind Dutton’s plane.
Bluey notes Max Chandler-Mather squalidly pretending to be a Liberal. Par for the course.
Bluey notes that the Coalition is all over the place on Welcome to Country. Talking out of both sides of their mouths on. Dutton suddenly respect that he respects it. And one of the DOGE targets is payments made for people leading the ceremony. Dutton has also repeated his contempt for the Indigenous flag by saying he won’t be standing anywhere near it or in front of it or something.
So the Dutton plan was to copy the Trump plan by turkeys voting for Christmas.
The trouble for Dutton is that all the potential turkeys took one look at Trump’s racism and elitism being operationalized and thought… yeah, nah.
… except for some Australian muslims who are tactically allocating preferences to give Dutton a boost.
Bluey did enjoy the Patterson jig when the Coalition’s Plan to cut migration numbers was announced. Sticking it to foreigners, most of whom are people of colour. Tie it to CoL and what could possibly go wrong?
It should have been a gimme win win for Dutton. But he buggered it up. It took some doing.
Where would be the cuts asked a journalist at the time.
That would be announced in due course according to Patterson. Bluey thought to himself, pig’s arse it will. The farmers will demand that the cheap exploitable backpacker arrangements be kept in place. Ditto the cheap South Pacific Labourers. So that cut them out. (They have now been officially exempted from the cuts).
Cutting students from the clampdown was out. Another Dutton flip flop own goal. Labor introduced legislation to cap student numbers. Dutton was all for it until there were a few meetings with Labour hire peeps. So Dutton backflipped and with the squalid support of the Greens, killed it. This meant Dutton had locked himself out of reducing inflows by way of reducing the number of incoming students.
Cutting a hundred thousand migrants from the more limited pool of migrants is politically tough but Dutton did not see this coming. If you exempt skilled migrant category then the cuts will have to fall far more heavily on family reunions…
…and migrants have already joined Dutton dot Trump.
Bluey reckons that the amount of follow through-thinking by the policy wonks in the campaign team has been close to completely abysmal: all elebenty seven, knee jerks, backflips and nasty kicks down.
The same bunch of clowns did the 41,000 cut in Canberra. The campaign elebenty sebens exempted various classes of public servants. Until there were not enough public servants left in Canberra to get to 41,000 cuts. Cretinous stuff.
Bluey is not sure what Labor got up to today. Zero.
Liberals minus 1 for stuffing up the migrant policy and plus 1 for being the MSM darlings.
The rest zip.
As you were.
Cumulative score
Labor 0 for a total of 10
Liberals plus 0 for a total of minus 5
Greens 0 for a total of minus 2.
PHON 0 for a total of 5
Indies 0 for a total of 4
Nationals 0 for a total of 4
ToP 0 for a total of minus 2.
Updated prognosis: Labor minority government.
Luigi Smith,
Thanks so much for this.
When I tried to find the quite, the Guardian version I read had edited it out.
So, screen grab, just so we can’t later be told we were imagining it:
And the URL: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/27/australia-election-2025-live-updates-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-debate-labor-liberal-cost-of-living-medicare-telehealth-nsw-vic-ntwnfb
There is no story on Newspoll up on The Australian’s website.
The Dutton words re by 6pm Sat – we will have won the election, is not much more than boasting that once all the votes are in then the coalition will have won the election.
It doesn’t say the result will be known – just that the votes are in ready to count. But clumsily expressed?
Now there is!
“Hung parliament looms as possible outcome, Newspoll shows
There has been no shift in support for either Labor or the Coalition as the campaign enters its final week. This means that the most likely outcome remains a hung parliament or Labor being returned with a slim majority.”
6m
#Newspoll 52-48 to ALP
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
4m
#Newspoll ALP 34 L-NP 35 ON 8 Green 11 others 12. Very similar to last week.
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
1m
#Newspoll
Albanese net -9 (unchanged)
Dutton net -24 (-2, new worst)
Better PM Albanese leads by 16 (favours incumbents, unchanged)
Nothing on Ghost…..
Spin
EXCLUSIVE16 minutes ago
Newspoll: Labor on the nose but Coalition not ready to govern
There has been no shift in support for either Labor or the Coalition as the campaign enters its final week. This means that the most likely outcome remains a hung parliament or Labor being returned with a slim majority.
Kevin Bonham has the figures.
Is Dutton going to win the election by 6pm eastern time, central time, western time, daylight saving time, or Greenwich mean time?
Where does Simon Benson get ‘Labor on the nose’?
Pillow talk?
Betting markets haven’t shifted at all.
Newspoll looks like status quo, Simon Benson of course will put a pro Dutton spin on a Labor lead.
Dutton going after the ABC today – that’ll play badly in those Teal seats.
Here ‘s a photo smuggled out of Simon Benson’s editorial suite.
sprocket_ @ #637 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:19 pm
I reckon it won’t be long before the Murdoch press start publishing polls as visually partisan as this.
citizen says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 7:04 pm
I love Murdoch’s pejorative language. Sounds like Advance is at work.
Ryan’s desperate, last-minute plea for donors’ cash
Teal MP Monique Ryan has launched a last-minute plea for $20,000 in donations, claiming shadowy conservative forces are conspiring against her. (Oz headline now)
*********
Fair comment, surely. The Australian’s not THAT shadowy.
ONP up 1 and Greens down 1. Within MOE
New thread.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:55 pm
Yeah, meanwhile I’m in Ballarat and I get ads for Deakin.
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You think that’s bad, I’m also in Ballarat and I’m getting ads for Bass! I’ve never even been to Tasmania
For quite a while I was getting YouTube ads for Allegra Spender, although I live in Canberra. Almost always I say no when websites ask for my location. Sometimes Google/Safari or whatever assumes my location is in some random place in Sydney. I feel deprived that Foghorn of Futility ads never seem to appear.
Short week between Easter Monday and Anzac Day. Lots of people taking holidays. Don’t think it was a great paying attention week, to Dutton’s benefit since he deserves to be out of sight in the rear view by now.
When Dutton says some people are only going to be tuning in in the last week this is particularly so in an election campaign disrupted by back to back long weekend weeks so it’s no time to get complacent. That said, if anything I suspect Dutton’s numbers are propped up by low info voters still sitting on last year’s zeitgeist and there’s opportunity here to really kick the blocks out from under his empty rims.