Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

With less than a week to go, Newspoll continues to credit Labor with a modest lead.

The Australian reports Newspoll finds very little change on last week, with Labor continuing to lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and the primary vote remaining at 34% for Labor and 35% for the Coalition. The Greens are down a point to 11% and One Nation is up one to 8%. The only detail offered on leaders’ ratings at this stage is that Anthony Albanese’s net approval is unchanged at minus 9 while Peter Dutton is down two to minus 24.  Albanese led Dutton by 51-35 as better PM (52-36 previously). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1254.

UPDATE: Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approval and 52% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is steady on 35% approval and up two on disapproval to 59%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister shifts from 52-36 to 51-35. The poll also finds 39% holding Labor deserving of re-election, up five since February, with 48% favouring the alternative option of “it’s time to give someone else a go”, down five. Thirty-eight per cent rate themselves “confident the Coalition is ready to govern”, down seven, with 62% not confident, up seven.

Charts of the Day: today we take a three-part look at the gender gap with one chart showing a trend of male-minus-female Labor two-party preferred (converted from the primary vote using my own preference estimates) going back to early 2020, as measured by Essential Research (the most data-rich source available on this point); and two showing how Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns have tracked net approval for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton among men and women going back to the start of the term. The first of these suggests an existing gap of around three points blew out to upwards of seven in early 2021, before settling in at around five points thereafter. Albanese’s ratings are notable for their lack of a gender gap, outside of the reliable tendency of women to rate themselves uncommitted in higher numbers. In contrast to Scott Morrison towards the end of his reign, there was no consistent gap for Peter Dutton in the first half of the term, but one emerged in 2024 (ranging from two to six points), and it’s widened since the start of the year (seven points in the January-to-March aggregation, ten in last week’s aggregation of polling since the budget).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,261 thoughts on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 … 26

  1. I do think the dwindling influence of News Corp is the undersold story of this election. It’s no coincidence the Coalition vote is holding up best in Queensland where they still have incredible influence given the buy up and shut down of regional papers and funnelling to the Courier Mail. Channel 9 doing so well in Queensland (because of the NRL) has also been good for them given their rather dramatic turn in editorial direction the last few years. Elsewhere, while News still have a lot of influence (mainly because lazy, young and underpaid tv journos just parrot their talking points and follow their narrative), it’s nothing like it used to be.

  4. Rocket Rocket @ #51 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 8:13 pm

    Boerwar 753pm

    Jim Scullin was unlucky – instability in the Nationalist-Country Coalition government ended up in an election being held only eleven months after the previous one in November 1928. Labor won in a landslide against a fractured Coalition on 12th October 1929, but then Wall Street started ‘crashing’ less than two weeks later, heralding the Great Depression.

    Many years ago I met someone who used to work in his parents’ Richmond Milk Bar in the 1920s in the morning before going to school. The first time he met Jim Scullin was there, as Jim always bought a newspaper and a small flat Cadbury chocolate bar in the morning on the way to work. The boy called him “Mr Scullin” and Scullin said “No, call me Jim” which he did from then on.

    Federal Parliament of course was then based in Melbourne (from 1901 until 1927 and the shift to Canberra), and Scullin would then hop on a tram to go into the city to work (the Feds were in Victoria’s State Parliament Building and the Vics were in Carlton’s Exhibition Buildings). He would talk to people on the tram every day on the way to work and the way home, always engaging with anyone who wanted to talk. And in those days – no aides, no security. Scullin became Deputy Labor leader in 1927 – that boy grew up to be a lifelong Labor supporter.

    RR: +1.

  19. The “Insiders say the Teal vote is softening” line might explain why Dutton is doing a sweep through the Teal seats

    Can’t imagine why it would be though especially with climate change being one of their biggest concerns

  21. Yeah this is ridiculous. What does Channel 7 think this is? Hell’s Kitchen?

    Narrator: “Meanwhile Peter in the Blue Team is struggling at the Fish Station!!”

  22. Channel 7 has turned this into something like The Chase or that stupid box game show – i would have tried a family feud with the buzzer and ‘survey says’

    Stupid music annoying even Dutton put him off his train of thought

  29. More than half of all voters believe Peter Dutton and the Coalition are not ready to govern the nation, according to the latest Newspoll.

    Has it occurred to Dutton and the rest of the Coalition that the voters see a bunch of leftovers from 2022 on the Coalition Shadow Front Bench, plus a bunch of the defeated from 2022 trying to make a comeback and so they’re thinking, why should we vote for a crew that we threw out 3 years ago?

  35. The reality TV music is genuinely hilarious. Does the winning interlocutor take home a brand new Nissan Pulsar and 23-piece knife set?

  36. Which of the leaders will be vote off the island, who will get the rose?

    WTF, there is background music during the question and the survivor challenge music at the end of the answers. I assume it is a time limit signal

  40. The music must be denoting the end of the allotted time. It’s clearly disconcerting, but I think it’s beginning to work as they get used to it.

  42. Dutton on safer ground dog whistling – but loses focus ‘people putting off having children..’

    Question was on migration.

  43. This is so bad by channel 7 it is almost unwatchable as the one thing they needed to get right – getting the leaders message out, is drowned out by using the producers from masterchef

  46. Fuel Excise cut does not benefit everyone, people with ev’s do not benefit and people whom do not drive either. Pity Albo does not say this.

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 … 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *