Two big bits of polling news with presumably more to follow before the day is out (likely including Resolve Strategic from Nine Newspapers and Freshwater Strategy from the Financial Review). The Australian has treated us earlier than usual to the post-budget Newspoll, which credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, a reversal of the last three results and the first Labor lead since July. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Anthony Albanese is up two points on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 52%. Exact numbers are not provided for Peter Dutton, but we are told his net rating is minus 18, down from minus 14 (UPDATE: down two on approval to 37% and up two on disapproval to 55%), and that Albanese now holds a lead of 11 points on preferred prime minister, out from nine points (UPDATE: from 47-38 to 49-38). Despite Labor’s improved position, responses to the budget are not positive: 16% expect it will leave them better off and 35% worse off; 22% rate it good for the economy and 32% bad; but 38% felt the Coalition would have done better compared with 47% who felt otherwise. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1249.
YouGov gets the ball rolling on the campaign with its second massive multi-level regression and post-stratification polling exercise, following an earlier effort from late January and early February. This one was conducted from February 27 to March 26 from a sample of no less than 38,629, providing it with a depth of data allowing for estimated results for all 150 seats, based on assumptions that a seat’s voting behaviour can be at least party predicted by its demography.
In common with the general tenor of recent polling, it finds an improvement in Labor’s position: its median seat prediction now has Labor on 75 seats, compared with 66 in the previous MRP and 76 at the 2022 election; the Coalition on 60, compared with with 73 and 58; the Greens on two, compared with one and four; and 13 others (Bob Katter and Rebekha Sharkie plus sundry independents). The projection suggests, with greater or lesser confidence, that the Liberals will gain Bennelong, Gilmore, Werriwa, Robertson and Lyons from Labor (together with Labor’s by-election gain of Aston), but lose Deakin; that Labor will gain Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens (though not Ryan); and that teal independents will gain Cowper and Wannon, together with the return of all non-Greens cross-benchers (with the usual caveat that the record of such exercises traditionally do less well at predicting independent and minor party results). No longer projected as likely Labor losses are Bullwinkel, Tangney, Boothby, Chisholm, Hunter, Shortland, Paterson, Macquarie, McEwen and Eden-Monaro.
Outside of a second high reading for One Nation, its national voting intention numbers are well in line with the tenor of recent polling in having Labor on 29.8% (up 0.7% from the February MRP), the Coalition on 35.5% (down 1.9%), the Greens on 13.2% (up 0.5%), One Nation 9.3% (down 0.2%), independents on 8.3% and others on 3.9%, with a two-party preferred estimate of 50.2-49.8 in favour of Labor (51.1-48.9 to the Coalition last time).
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Barely had I hit “publish” on this post before Nine Newspapers followed suit with the Resolve Strategic poll, conducted Wednesday to Sunday from an unusually large sample of 3237. After a distinctly poor result for Labor a month ago, when they trailed 55-45 on a two-party preferred measure using respondent-allocated preferences, this one records a two-party tie from primary votes of Labor 29% (up four), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down two). The report notes a two-party preferred measure using preferences from 2022 would have Labor ahead 51-49. The changes on leaders’ ratings are particularly dramatic: Anthony Albanese’s combined good and very good rating is up five to 39%, while poor and very poor is down seven to 49%; Peter Dutton is respectively down eight to 37% and up seven to 47%; and Dutton’s 39-35 lead as preferred prime minister becomes an Albanese lead 42-33.
We are also told that 28% felt last week’s budget would be good for them financially; that Treasurer Jim Chalmers recorded a net approval rating of plus six, while Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor was on minus six; and that Dutton was favoured over Albanese as best to handle Donald Trump by 31% to 20%, though that may have been a loaded compliment for some respondents. Hopefully more detail on these questions will be along later.
UPDATE 2 (Freshwater Strategy): Now the Financial Review brings us the Freshwater Strategy poll, which has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 39% (steady) and Greens 12% (down two). The pollster has also conducted an analysis based on the result suggesting 70 seats for Labor, 67 for the Coalition and a cross bench of 13. In contrast to the other polls, it finds Peter Dutton improving on preferred prime minister, on which he now trails 46-45, in from 46-42 last time. We are also told both leaders have net approval ratings of minus 11, compared with minus 10 for Albanese and minus 11 for Dutton last time – the precise approval and disapproval ratings should be along later (UPDATE: Albanese is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 48%, while Dutton is up two to 37% and one to 47%). Twenty-one per cent felt the budget would make them better off, compared with 27% for worse off. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1059.
UPDATE 3 (BludgerTrack): All of which pushes Labor into a 50.3-49.7 lead on the BludgerTrack two-party trend, breaking a 50.0-50.0 tie before the latest batch of polls were added – albeit that I am continuing to apply preference flows from the 2022 election, which pollsters have lately been tweaking to reflect a view that they are unlikely to flow as strongly to Labor this time. A particularly striking feature of the update is a downturn in Peter Dutton’s net approval trend, which has fallen below Anthony Albanese’s for the first time since the middle of last year.
nadia88,
Bluey is here to stay, by popular acclamation.
Hunter class
There seems to be an enormous spend on putting in the infrastructure to build them, I wonder how much of the cost overrun is due to the fact the cost of infrastructure is spread over 6 ships instead of 9.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkJotgH-JV0
C@tmomma says:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 10:16 pm
nadia88,
Bluey is here to stay, by popular acclamation.
=============
I noticed. I shall not interfere.
Speaking of peaking…Cameron Milner – his experience includes three decades of Labor election campaigns, time as an ALP State Secretary and as a Chief of Staff.
Regardless of the Federal election result, Anthony Albanese is finished as PM
https://thenightly.com.au/opinion/cameron-milner-regardless-of-the-federal-election-result-anthony-albanese-is-finished-as-pm-c-18213473
“The only impediment to Labor winning on May 3 is now Albanese himself.
And this is what’s keeping Labor awake at night. These polls show Albanese might well be suffering from a case of premature election, peaking too early with so long yet to go in this campaign.
Labor’s other challenge with these polls is that fear campaigns only really work if the other bloke is seen as having a chance, otherwise it’s all just pissing into the wind.
Having personally been in the room when Labor cooked up Mediscare 1.0 off the back of one IT outsourcing contract, I know it only worked because Malcolm Turnbull at the time was seen as likely to win.
…..
Labor without Albanese could show voters what a real Labor government looks like, rather than the pale imitation we’re getting under Albanese.”
Frednk
Good question re Hunter. I question it. You could build an entire shipyard for what we have already spent. Yet there was already a shipyard at ASC. Fuether, if we have spent a lot mechanising the shipyard then build costs per ship should go down. Yet Hunter costs still go up, as the claimed workforce size shrinks(?)
In Senate estimates a lot of the money was said to have gone back to UK for design and early work components.
AFAIK David Shoebridge is correct – Hunters are the most expensive warships, tonne for tonne, being built in the world. Its a scandal.
nadia88says:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 10:15 pm
“Thanks Arange.
When Chris Hayes was the member he got some fairly high primary votes in Fowler, often in excess of 60%.
Good call of yours by the way with the W.A. election.
I think you picked the vote at around 57-43.
With 86% counted it is sitting at 56.9.”
No problem.
Stagflation is heading America’s way! Just like the 1970s. That’s what the Bank of America says. Oh dear.
Remember the 70s. YMCA everyone! That’s the last time America had stagflation.
Elise Stefanik just got thrown under a bus. No cushy UN seat for you Elise. Trump shit scared of losing her seat in congress so yanked her nomination. What a guy.
Trump should be worried. US consumer sentiment through the floor! Stock market tanked on Friday! Oh dear.
Mike Waltz will soon join Elise under the bus. Signalgate was a disgrace.
Everybody sing after me. YMCA!!
Oh dear.
Socrates says:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 10:30 pm
Frednk
Good question re Hunter. I question it. You could build an entire shipyard for what we have already spent. Yet there was already a shipyard at ASC. Fuether, if we have spent a lot mechanising the shipyard then build costs per ship should go down. Yet Hunter costs still go up, as the claimed workforce size shrinks(?)
In Senate estimates a lot of the money was said to have gone back to UK for design and early work components.
AFAIK David Shoebridge is correct – Hunters are the most expensive warships, tonne for tonne, being built in the world. Its a scandal.
I will make the comment. I saw the super structure build of the LHD up close. The build method doesn’t seem much different. The project difference was the hull was built in Spain and shipped out.
“Speaking of peaking…Cameron Milner – his experience includes three decades of Labor election campaigns, time as an ALP State Secretary and as a Chief of Staff.”
Why has this guy flipped to being reactionary for The Australian & Sky News? Based on his twitter I’m guessing it’s Labor Right vs Labor Left internal factional warfare where the guy is bitter Chalmers isn’t the PM right now? Hell of a time for some classic splitting.
Australia needs real left wing tax reform – and a leader intelligent and well spoken enough to explain things to the electorate. The Howard taxes are too high mantra needs to be broken. More from minerals, more from trusts etc. Proper funding for tertiary and secondary education, stop using privatisation and migration to patch revenue shortfalls. Migration is killing Sydney – that is not an anti cultural argument. Both parties are in on it, using migration to balance the budget. Wrong reason for migration, noone in Europe uses it, why us. So election is bit Lite. Hope it leads to someone more constructive.
Ooh! Big stuff if Cameron Milner’s turning his fire on Labor.
The populist movement in Europe has just been provided with a martyr.
Jordan Bardella will be the next President of France. And NATO and EU are moribund.
Good riddance to the latter two!
nadia88 @ #856 Monday, March 31st, 2025 – 10:23 pm
I shall not interfere.
What! As if you could! You really do have an inflated idea of yourself, don’t you!
Re shipyard at ASC.
If you look at the video, the build method has changed. The gear shown has only become available in the last 25 years. It’s big and it would have all been new. If that is what was installed they really are set up to build ships.
I have been involved in this short of shit in another industry. Cutting and bending steal using laser cutters and programmable benders makes for amazing accuracy and repeatability but the upfront costs are enormous. You have to 3D model the whole thing and then from this create the programs to cut and bend the steal.
20 years ago you could buy a reasonable brake press for $100,000, they one we brought cost $500,000. The difference, the $500,000 gave you the same result every time, but you have to have the software and engineering behind it to make it work.
If they have started building them, cancelling now would be stupid, they are into the cooky cutting bit, the cheap bit. I bet the cost savings going from 9 to 6 was minimal.
Frank Calabrese passed away two or three years ago.
A few google searches tells me that Cameron Milner is about as relevant to the current Labor party as Mark Latham. Nothing of relevance there.
Frednk
I am familiar with the automation and agree its a good idea. The Finns and Japanese have been doing it since the 1990s.
Yes the cost saving was minimal going from 9 to 6 Hunters.
It is still very odd that the first ship is so far away in time (2032 delivery?)
Re Cameron Milner, at this point, how many likely Labor voters watch Sky News? I’d guess very few.
So who does he influence?
The Golden Age is going well (US Stock performance lately):
https://x.com/MarketJournalX/status/1905992238229832162
Socrates @ #868 Monday, March 31st, 2025 – 11:04 pm
Probably mostly former Labor voters that turned to One Nation, who he’s trying to then preference the Coalition above Labor.
Which saddens me to say may be a critical voter bloc that could decide things in certain marginal seats.
Labor without Albanese could show voters what a real Labor government looks like, rather than the pale imitation we’re getting under Albanese.”
————
Albo is quite a lacklustre PM, I mean he’s a decent person but he lacks a sense of authority, he seems unable to develop anything more than a threadbare, uninspiring agenda and is flat-footed reacting to domestic and world events.
He’s an awkward campaigner – it feels like his lines are mostly rehearsed and memorised. He’s lucky to have come against two bad candidates in Morrison and Dutton. He’ll surely have to handover the reins at some point in the next term, if Labor are re-elected.
He’s keeping Labor competitive for the short term but not really doing anything that will give them a legacy that wins younger generations over as loyal Labor voters in the future.
Socrates says:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 11:02 pm
Frednk
I am familiar with the automation and agree its a good idea. The Finns and Japanese have been doing it since the 1990s.
Yes the cost saving was minimal going from 9 to 6 Hunters.
It is still very odd that the first ship is so far away in time (2032 delivery?)
According to wikepedia the winner was not selected until 2018, ad the first steal was to cut until 2024. I think you are being a bit harsh.
[‘President Trump says he isn’t ruling out the possibility of seeking a third term in office. Yesterday, Trump told NBC News he “was not joking” about serving another term and that “there are methods” that would allow him to do so. He did not elaborate on those methods. The Constitution mandates a two-term limit for the president.
There is something of a movement among Trump’s most avid supporters promoting the idea of a third term, NPR’s Tamara Keith tells Up First. A Republican congressman even introduced a constitutional amendment three days into Trump’s second term to pave the way for a third. Keith says there’s a political reason for Trump to pursue this. Unless something dramatic happens, the clock is ticking on his power. Members of his party will soon run to replace him and he will be seen as a lame duck, she says. Teasing a third term could potentially extend his influence.’] – NPR
The first hurdle for changing the US Constitution is that it must be approved by a two-thirds vote of both houses. It won’t happen. Furthermore, Trump turns 79 in June and will be 82 come the next election. He’s already showing signs of dementia – a disease his father died of, ‘his mental status being in decline for at least seven years before then.’ Mary Trump described him as “a high-functioning sociopath” – like father like son.
And as for the SCOTUS interpreting the 22nd Amendment in Trump’s favour, there’s been a noticeable shift of late, with Roberts & Coney Barrett siding with the three liberal judges – eg, ‘thwarting his efforts to freeze $2 billion in foreign aid and halting, at least in part, his crusade to make drastic budget cuts. The court also ‘reined in the administration’s efforts to dramatically expand the scope of executive power.’ It appears that at least Roberts & Coney Barrett are starting to consider how history will judge them. However, the corrupt & palpably partisan Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch & Kavanaugh will remain corrupt & palpably partisan for the remainder of their tenure or impeachment, provided the Democrats grow a pair.
yabbasays:
What! As if you could! You really do have an inflated idea of yourself, don’t you!
____________
Now that’s ironic.
@Mavis at 11:15pm
I mean technically it could happen, but not in a way that Trump could make any backsie moves. Once he starts making moves like that, it’s all or nothing.
At the moment he’s got away with everything he has with plausible deniability, but things like this would imply he’s done with due process and will rule as a King.
Frednk
“ According to wikepedia the winner was not selected until 2018, ad the first steal was to cut until 2024. I think you are being a bit harsh.”
The parent design (UK Type 26) was supposed to be mature. Construction was due to start in 2020. They are four years late.
I’m tipping that Trump will be removed under the 25th amendment before the end of this term or voted out if he, or a proxy, seeks a third term. His actions currently are going to cause nothing but pain for Americans and even cultists will start turning off him.
mj @ #877 Monday, March 31st, 2025 – 11:25 pm
I’m not so sure the 25th Amendment would work here, namely because of what is involved in Section 4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Declaration_by_vice_president_and_cabinet_members_of_president's_inability
If Trump goes full Mad King Mode, he could simply fire everyone in the cabinet that would declare him unable to continue to serve as President, and replace them with guaranteed lickspittles that would protect him.
Socrates says:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 11:23 pm
Frednk
“ According to wikepedia the winner was not selected until 2018, ad the first steal was to cut until 2024. I think you are being a bit harsh.”
The parent design (UK Type 26) was supposed to be mature. Construction was due to start in 2020. They are four years late.
So how much of that time went into upgrading the ship yard.? To claim you could build those buildings and get all that gear in place in two years looks like a dream to me.
”
William Bowesays:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 10:51 pm
Ooh! Big stuff if Cameron Milner’s turning his fire on Labor.
”
Sarcasm?
”
sealionsays:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 11:06 pm
The Golden Age is going well (US Stock performance lately):
”
Before that it lost 5 trillion dollars in 3 weeks.
The market value of the S&P 500 at its Feb. 19 peak was $52.06 trillion, according to FactSet. Thursday’s decline put the index’s market value down to $46.78 trillion. That makes for a total loss of about $5.28 trillion in about three weeks. (Source: NBC)
nath
What is difference between ironic and projection? Just asking.
Did I miss report from ‘Roger’?
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 11:33 pm
mj @ #877 Monday, March 31st, 2025 – 11:25 pm
I’m tipping that Trump will be removed under the 25th amendment before the end of this term or voted out if he, or a proxy, seeks a third term. His actions currently are going to cause nothing but pain for Americans.
I’m not so sure the 25th Amendment would work here, namely because of what is involved in Section 4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Declaration_by_vice_president_and_cabinet_members_of_president's_inability
If Trump goes full Mad King Mode, he could simply fire everyone in the cabinet that would declare him unable to continue to serve as President, and replace them with guaranteed lickspittles that would protect him.
————
Maybe he could do that, we are certainly seeing some good reasons why not to vest significant powers in the executive branch.
I think it’s possible though that cabinet + VP turn against him in unison, these appointees are as righteous and loyal as him.
Kirsdarke:
Monday, March 31, 2025 at 11:20 pm
Trump’s main concern is that after the mid-terms, his authority will be diminished. He’s also shit scared that he will see the inside of a slammer. That’s why he’s threatening a third term. But there’s no way that he will have the support of two-thirds of both houses to amend the Constitution. In short, it’s highly doubtful his bid for a third term will get off the ground.
Alt National Park Service
@altnps.bsky.social
Follow
RIP USAID — all remaining 900 employees will be fired.
March 29, 2025 at 7:59 AM
7.30 report is worth watching, Chris Bowen is starting to be blunt when it comes with the bullshit talking points coming out of the Liberals.
ABC is starting to look silly regurgitating them, might pay for them to start thinking before using htem.
Mavis @ #885 Monday, March 31st, 2025 – 11:51 pm
Hrm, yeah, just there’s the fact that he might go for whatever the Latin legal word is for “What I say is the law” and I do worry that the Democrats and the Courts remain so weak that they don’t effectively challenge him.
Nature ( The famous Science magazine)
75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving
More than 1,600 readers answered our poll; many said they were looking for jobs in Europe and Canada.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00938-y
If it really happens, America is truly ‘f**ked’
Catherine Rampell
@crampell.bsky.social
Follow
To be clear: Trump did not merely say he was indifferent to higher car prices resulting from his auto tariffs (“couldn’t care less”). He also said he *hopes* auto companies raise prices
https://bsky.app/profile/crampell.bsky.social/post/3llnbdaxbjk2c
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6m7rbdgaz5vyg4bnbefi7kh6/bafkreibtru6tpfvep6rffvou5ojvvfhhskuz7kvqxee6sdyjgjfileenhq@jpeg (can someone open this image?)
Ven @ #890 Tuesday, April 1st, 2025 – 12:00 am
It really is amazing how the right gets away with saying things like this and it only makes them more popular.
mj & Kirsdarke
I predicted when Trump won the election he would not see out his term, due to death, 25th or impeachment. I have since looked closely into the 25th, and yes for one thing you’d be saddled with Vance! And also the Cabinet would have to roll him, and then be backed up by Congress. Maybe they should have done this after 6 January 2021 and installed Pence – though I suppose that unlike impeachment that wouldn’t have barred Trump from running again.
The French seem to have got it right – don’t let a convicted criminal run for President!
And I believe Trump has shown signs of early dementia, and in four years that can get pretty bad.
Trump wants to ‘defund’ Planned Parenthood. The Supreme Court will hear a case aimed at that.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/31/2313156/-Trump-wants-to-defund-Planned-Parenthood-The-Supreme-Court-will-hear-a-case-aimed-at-that?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
ost
Catherine Rampell
@crampell.bsky.social
Follow
To be clear: Trump did not merely say he was indifferent to higher car prices resulting from his auto tariffs (“couldn’t care less”). He also said he *hopes* auto companies raise prices
March 31, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Everybody can reply
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social
·
10h
Trump’s tariffs will raise prices for USA-made cars too, not just foreign imports. That’s because:
1) a lot of inputs that go into US-made cars come from abroad (esp from Mexico/Canada)
2) When foreign competitors’ prices go up, domestic producers often raise their prices too
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social
·
10h
Re #2: This is what economic theory predicts — and what we’ve seen empirically.
E.g., after Trump tariffed imported washing machines in 2018, both foreign-produced and U.S.-made washing machines got more expensive.
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/…
Constitutional amendments in the US require 2/3 majority support in Congress and also require ratification by 3/4 of the States. A very tough ask.
Trump is starting to look his age.
Outsider @ #894 Tuesday, April 1st, 2025 – 12:07 am
Yes, that’s right, but there’s the very real risk of Trump just doing as he pleases and being like “Try and stop me.” if anyone tries to challenge him with the rule of law like that.
Mavis
If (scary that I need to say that!) there is a proper election in November 2026 I feel the Democrats will easily win the House, and the way things are going may even be a chance for the Senate. If Trump is still around that will make him the lamest of lame duck Presidents.
I think the funny part will be seeing if any Republicans (including JD Vance!) are game enough to put their hands up to run in the Presidential Primary – dissing their Boss’ implied ambitions for a third term. People would usually declare they are running in Spring 2027, which may be very awkward if Trump is still making overtures about a third term!
Although Trump told NBC’s Kristen Welker that he doesn’t care if car makers raise car prices,
Greg Sargent/The New Republic:
Trump Accidentally Wrecks His Own Tariff Spin in Leaked Call Stunner
In a call with auto CEOs, the president warned them against raising prices. Isn’t that an admission that his argument for tariffs is bogus?
American consumers, President Trump has carefully considered a wealth of evidence surrounding this complex matter, and after extensive consultation with stakeholders on all sides, has concluded that his tariffs are a bad idea, after all.
Just kidding! Actually, Trump has decided to take another course entirely: Stung by that expert opinion, he’s now corruptly wielding executive power to warn the relevant companies that they’d better not raise prices after his tariffs go into effect—or else.
https://newrepublic.com/article/193352/trump-car-tariffs-vehicle-auto-ceo-wrecks-spin
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 12:03 am
mj & Kirsdarke
I predicted when Trump won the election he would not see out his term, due to death, 25th or impeachment. I have since looked closely into the 25th, and yes for one thing you’d be saddled with Vance! And also the Cabinet would have to roll him, and then be backed up by Congress. Maybe they should have done this after 6 January 2021 and installed Pence – though I suppose that unlike impeachment that wouldn’t have barred Trump from running again.
The French seem to have got it right – don’t let a convicted criminal run for President!
And I believe Trump has shown signs of early dementia, and in four years that can get pretty bad.
———
The USA has become a pariah state under Trump and his insane actions. In 2 months he’s caused long term, probably irrecoverable damage to US relations worldwide. They at least need to find a way to shut him up.
Having once had the misfortune to work for 8.5 years as a so called public servant in a state government I can tell the ignorant who have never worked there that small government should be the aim of every sphere of government.
The Time serving job for life almost regardless of performance screws the taxpayer.
Public sector unions run labor now that private sector union coverage is down to 8 % coverage.
Trump derangement syndrome for haters on here has another3 years 9 months to go .