Two big bits of polling news with presumably more to follow before the day is out (likely including Resolve Strategic from Nine Newspapers and Freshwater Strategy from the Financial Review). The Australian has treated us earlier than usual to the post-budget Newspoll, which credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, a reversal of the last three results and the first Labor lead since July. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (down one). Anthony Albanese is up two points on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 52%. Exact numbers are not provided for Peter Dutton, but we are told his net rating is minus 18, down from minus 14 (UPDATE: down two on approval to 37% and up two on disapproval to 55%), and that Albanese now holds a lead of 11 points on preferred prime minister, out from nine points (UPDATE: from 47-38 to 49-38). Despite Labor’s improved position, responses to the budget are not positive: 16% expect it will leave them better off and 35% worse off; 22% rate it good for the economy and 32% bad; but 38% felt the Coalition would have done better compared with 47% who felt otherwise. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1249.
YouGov gets the ball rolling on the campaign with its second massive multi-level regression and post-stratification polling exercise, following an earlier effort from late January and early February. This one was conducted from February 27 to March 26 from a sample of no less than 38,629, providing it with a depth of data allowing for estimated results for all 150 seats, based on assumptions that a seat’s voting behaviour can be at least party predicted by its demography.
In common with the general tenor of recent polling, it finds an improvement in Labor’s position: its median seat prediction now has Labor on 75 seats, compared with 66 in the previous MRP and 76 at the 2022 election; the Coalition on 60, compared with with 73 and 58; the Greens on two, compared with one and four; and 13 others (Bob Katter and Rebekha Sharkie plus sundry independents). The projection suggests, with greater or lesser confidence, that the Liberals will gain Bennelong, Gilmore, Werriwa, Robertson and Lyons from Labor (together with Labor’s by-election gain of Aston), but lose Deakin; that Labor will gain Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens (though not Ryan); and that teal independents will gain Cowper and Wannon, together with the return of all non-Greens cross-benchers (with the usual caveat that the record of such exercises traditionally do less well at predicting independent and minor party results). No longer projected as likely Labor losses are Bullwinkel, Tangney, Boothby, Chisholm, Hunter, Shortland, Paterson, Macquarie, McEwen and Eden-Monaro.
Outside of a second high reading for One Nation, its national voting intention numbers are well in line with the tenor of recent polling in having Labor on 29.8% (up 0.7% from the February MRP), the Coalition on 35.5% (down 1.9%), the Greens on 13.2% (up 0.5%), One Nation 9.3% (down 0.2%), independents on 8.3% and others on 3.9%, with a two-party preferred estimate of 50.2-49.8 in favour of Labor (51.1-48.9 to the Coalition last time).
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Barely had I hit “publish” on this post before Nine Newspapers followed suit with the Resolve Strategic poll, conducted Wednesday to Sunday from an unusually large sample of 3237. After a distinctly poor result for Labor a month ago, when they trailed 55-45 on a two-party preferred measure using respondent-allocated preferences, this one records a two-party tie from primary votes of Labor 29% (up four), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down two). The report notes a two-party preferred measure using preferences from 2022 would have Labor ahead 51-49. The changes on leaders’ ratings are particularly dramatic: Anthony Albanese’s combined good and very good rating is up five to 39%, while poor and very poor is down seven to 49%; Peter Dutton is respectively down eight to 37% and up seven to 47%; and Dutton’s 39-35 lead as preferred prime minister becomes an Albanese lead 42-33.
We are also told that 28% felt last week’s budget would be good for them financially; that Treasurer Jim Chalmers recorded a net approval rating of plus six, while Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor was on minus six; and that Dutton was favoured over Albanese as best to handle Donald Trump by 31% to 20%, though that may have been a loaded compliment for some respondents. Hopefully more detail on these questions will be along later.
UPDATE 2 (Freshwater Strategy): Now the Financial Review brings us the Freshwater Strategy poll, which has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 39% (steady) and Greens 12% (down two). The pollster has also conducted an analysis based on the result suggesting 70 seats for Labor, 67 for the Coalition and a cross bench of 13. In contrast to the other polls, it finds Peter Dutton improving on preferred prime minister, on which he now trails 46-45, in from 46-42 last time. We are also told both leaders have net approval ratings of minus 11, compared with minus 10 for Albanese and minus 11 for Dutton last time – the precise approval and disapproval ratings should be along later (UPDATE: Albanese is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 48%, while Dutton is up two to 37% and one to 47%). Twenty-one per cent felt the budget would make them better off, compared with 27% for worse off. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1059.
UPDATE 3 (BludgerTrack): All of which pushes Labor into a 50.3-49.7 lead on the BludgerTrack two-party trend, breaking a 50.0-50.0 tie before the latest batch of polls were added – albeit that I am continuing to apply preference flows from the 2022 election, which pollsters have lately been tweaking to reflect a view that they are unlikely to flow as strongly to Labor this time. A particularly striking feature of the update is a downturn in Peter Dutton’s net approval trend, which has fallen below Anthony Albanese’s for the first time since the middle of last year.
From the previous thread.
Sprocket
“ Mick Ryan says what he really thinks about Australia’s Defence capability.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/whoever-wins-the-election-stop-the-rot-in-defence-we-re-in-peril-as-never-before-20250330-p5lnke.html
Whilst I obviously hope Labor wins the election, if it does, the Defence Minister should be changed. The department needs reform. Marles has not delivered it. We need a Defence Minister whose skills extend beyond golf.
And resolve!
Voters have swung to Labor with a surge of support that has given Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a personal edge over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as the country’s preferred leader, lifting the government out of a long slump ahead of the May 3 election.
The dramatic swing has tightened the race for power in the opening stage of the election campaign, putting Labor and the Coalition on 50 per cent each in two-party terms in the first Resolve Political Monitor after last week’s federal budget.
Albanese has taken the lead over Dutton as preferred prime minister, ahead by 42 to 33 per cent, in a significant shift since he fell behind the opposition leader at the start of this year.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-edges-ahead-of-dutton-as-labor-bounces-back-after-budget-poll-20250330-p5lnkw.html
Resolve – outlier confirmed with a 4 point boost to Labor
The exclusive survey, conducted for this masthead by research firm Resolve Strategic, shows Labor has increased its primary vote from 25 to 29 per cent over the past month, while the Coalition has seen its core support slip from 39 to 37 per cent.
ALP 29
LNP 37
GRN 13
PHoN 7
IND 9
OTH 5
William
Thanks for the poll coverage. I doubt Dutton’s budget reply or the LNP voting against the tax cuts will move things i; Dutton’s favour either.
To anyone who has seen the YouGov details, if Boothby in SA now looks like a hold, how is Sturt looking?
51/49 in the polls is not enough to win fot Labor…. it was around that in 2019 and we all know what happened.
Dutton is on track to win comfortably
A lot of indigestion amongst Liberal ranks, I would suggest, themunz.
Home and hosed
Looks like a small but significant swing to Labor has been confirmed with most of the polls this weekend.
Socrates @ #1 Sunday, March 30th, 2025 – 5:52 pm
Well, he certainly doesn’t mince words …
However, there is one very strange omission. Not a single mention of the gaping wound in our current defence strategy which is AUKUS.
That’s a little odd, to say the least.
Latest Resolve Poll. Comparison figures from the 23-Feb Resolve
* ALP 29% ( up 4)
* LNP 37% (down 2)
* GRN 13% (steady)
* PHON 7% (down 2)
* Others / Indies 14% (steady)
link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
davidwh:
Yes that’s the idea!
Trump (version 2 ) has turned the world upside down and will be a major factor.
He has crippled the conservative vote around the world.
This is as it should be as our economy always suffers when the US goes up in smoke.
Victoria – ALP up 3 to 27, LNP down 3 to 35, Greens down 1 to 14
NSW – ALP up 6 to 30, LNP up 2 to 40, Greens down 2 to 11. Very high LNP vote in NSW.
QLD – ALP no change – 25 steady, LNP down 2 to 39, Greens up 1 to 13
The trend is Labor’s friend. Can’t see anything around at present that will reverse that trend. Personally I think the trend started when Trump started acting like a demented dictator. Albanese looks like a safer option of dealing with the Trump threat to world stability.
… and finally, PPM. Albo leading now by 9.
Previously Dutton was leading by 4, so a fairly significant 13 point turnaround in 5 weeks.
The YouGov MRP poll essentially has a 50-50 2pp (i.e. a roughly 2% swing towards the Coalition from 2022) but barely changes the result in terms of seats from 2022, with Labor down only 2 seats and the Coalition up only 2 seats.
This suggests the Coalition is attracting the swing in the wrong places.
Five weeks is a long time in politics. It looks like the campaign will be very interesting, especially if the polls stay so tight.
Ahhh ………Scromo 2
Nothing but a true believer….i think I do prefer the ALP numbers as they are compared to the declining LNP figures …….old potatoes numbers are in free fall
Another 2 weeks and the question will be asked……..is it to late to change leaders
sprocket_ – do you have the polling period. I can’t find it in their report. I gather it’s covered most of last week.
Leadership change this close to an election isn’t going to happen.
If the federal LNP primary vote in QLD under 40% , the federal lib/nats have gone backwards under Dutton
nadia88 @ #18 Sunday, March 30th, 2025 – 6:11 pm
davidwh says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 6:13 pm
Leadership change this close to an election isn’t going to happen.
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Leader ship change could be forced on the federal Liberal party on the night of the federal election , if a boiler over occurs in Dickson and Dutton loses
Scott no doubt but that would be after the election. Mind you if the Coalition loses I expect a leadership change is likely in any case.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 6:08 pm
The trend is Labor’s friend. Can’t see anything around at present that will reverse that trend. Personally I think the trend started when Trump started acting like a demented dictator. Albanese looks like a safer option of dealing with the Trump threat to world stability.
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Exactly.
No Australian should ignore how he has bullied Canada! They even speak the same version of english!
Dutton will find it difficult to walk back his “deep thinker” assessment.
From capon to feather duster.
Davidwh..
Maybe but it’s always a good talking point that the LNP has to defend……Mr Dutton are you safe a leader of the opposition..maybe a leak here and a leak there
Questions questions questions ……nothing like a little bit of scuttlebut
Sportsbet odds now at 6.21 AEDT – ALP $1.80 LNP $2.00
I found one seat where they have given very generous odds too.
Scott @ #22 Sunday, March 30th, 2025 – 6:16 pm
That is true, Dutton’s seat is pretty marginal so it is a possibility. In that scenario I think Andrew Hastie would most likely become leader.
But if Dutton holds on to his seat and the Coalition loses, it would depend on how badly they go. If Dutton fails to win at least 60 seats, he’ll be challenged, probably by Angus Taylor. More than 60 seats or puts Labor into a minority, he’ll likely stay on. Hastie won’t challenge Dutton directly.
Looks like Cyclone Alfred came along at exactly the wrong time for Labor. They’ve peaked too soon – 3% swing against sub_._ is where it will end up.
That time period from April 12 to May 3 will be very painful for Labor.
Cest la vie – they missed the bus on swapping out Albo last year when it would have done some good.
The Reserve Bank figures, released on Tuesday after the newly configured Board meets tomorrow may add another perspective to the economic expectations for the coming year.
The Reserve Bank has previously suggested that the trend the direction the economy is enjoying is close to expectations.
This is a sugar hit for Islamophobes:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/interrupt-disrupt-expose-plan-to-drive-mps-from-sydney-s-mosques-20250330-p5lnmp.html
IF the seat change is +2 to the Tories, this leaves them stranded in the mid 50’s in a 151 Seat Chamber
Noting the trend with the election now called – so now people starting to give thought to the pending election and who they will vote for
The strange quirk to me is the polling in Queensland given the plethora of Seats the Tories hold in Regional and Rural Queensland
So are all those Seats won on the back of Palmer and Hanson preferences, getting a 38% Primary vote to over 50% on 2PP?
We know the trend of Greens preferences to the ALP, which wins the ALP Seats (and delivers a couple of Greens Seats)
The other matter is how this vote translates to the Senate and the passage of Government legislation?
And in regards the impacts of Trump, the USA Markets were down some 2% on Friday (their time) on fears of those impacts of Trump
The ASX will follow tomorrow
And from there given decaying sentiment – and fear?
The panic has started!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-backtracks-on-two-referendum-ideas-digs-in-on-deportation-20250330-p5lnkt.html
COMMENTARY28 minutes ago
SIMON BENSON
Coalition risks snatching defeat from jaws of victory
This was always going to be a contest between who voters considered to be the least unattractive of two unappealing options. Newspoll suggests Dutton is now at risk.
Bet there hoping the dirt files are jam packed……..what do think a week before voting starts……..release the hounds….
Albanese heading to the cyclone aftermath while Dutton hob-nobbed with high rollers in Sydney as Alfred hit his electorate has obviously bitten. Albo had the chance to look prime ministerial while Dutton was dodging questions about his wealthy donor dinner.
Do these new polls suggest Dutton has enough support to win the dozen or so seats he’s going to need to take off Labor to win government?
ScromoII seems to think so. Resolve seems to say otherwise.
Dutton is going to get a handful of wins on crossbenchers who are practically Liberals anyway. But Labor is going to win back Fowler and might win 2 or 3 Greens seats (and the Greens won’t support Dutton anyway) and have probably “won” a seat off the crossbench with the abolition of a NSW seat replaced with a seat that should go Labor.
Wishy-Washy, Namby-Pamby, Hoity-Toity Dutton sinking slowly without any ideas and those he has he refuses to give a costing (e.g. the $300 billion 20 year nuclear power plant idea).
themunzsays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 6:32 pm
The panic has started!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-backtracks-on-two-referendum-ideas-digs-in-on-deportation-20250330-p5lnkt.html
All over the shop like a madwoman’s breakfast.
No Favour at 6:10 pm
“The YouGov MRP poll essentially has a 50-50 2pp (i.e. a roughly 2% swing towards the Coalition from 2022) but barely changes the result in terms of seats from 2022, with Labor down only 2 seats and the Coalition up only 2 seats.
This suggests the Coalition is attracting the swing in the wrong places.”
The real problem for the Coalition is that their 50% of the two-party preferred vote includes a lot of wasted votes in Teal seats where they have a TPPV majority over the ALP, but don’t win the seat. If YouGov is right, and the Teals win all their current seats and a couple more, just over 50% of the Coalition vs ALP TPPV won’t get the Coalition within a bull’s roar of winning a majority in their own right.
Is Spud developing a greenish tinge?
Envy of Albo’s improved standing?
Hmm…
His handlers need to get him out of the bright light. It’s exposing his lack of substance, the dangerous parts of his nature and feet of clay.
Double sized Resolve still had Labor sub 30, I still say they won’t get to majority from there
Interesting numbers from Queensland. My guess is state factors are playing a role e.g. the broken promises on a new stadium and Sunshine Coast rail
Labor in trouble in NSW?
That’s all it needs. Looking good.
Hard Being Green says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 6:44 pm
Double sized Resolve still had Labor sub 30, I still say they won’t get to majority from there
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The federal lib/nats combined primary vote is 37%
More Labor majority than Minority
Labor majority increases – the lower the Federal lib/nats combined Primary vote
Maude Lynne,
Peter Dutton specialises in punching down. He doesn’t do the vision thing. Hence he was thinking that he could just keep punching down on the Prime Minister, Wind Farms strangely, Cost of Living-which is slowly but surely resolving itself post pandemic and which we will get an indication of how well the government is handling that issue when the Reserve Bank meets tomorrow, Housing only for those wishing to forego their retirement savings to get into the Housing market, and Immigrants. Plus an Australian DOGE and sacking Public Servants…only to hand the work to the Big 4 Accountancy firms, or to create Robodebt 2.0 and Veterans Suicide 2.0.
Not a winning hand of cards, as his guiding light, Donald Trump, would say.
Labor threw its best punches at Dutton in March for an April 12 poll.
Not enough of a bounce – Labor wont have the petrol in the tank for the last 2 weeks post Easter.
Deep minority govt coming up.
citizen says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 6:23 pm
For anyone who would like a short break from dissecting polling:
Steve Marsh is a Scottish travel vlogger on You tube who visits out of the way places and avoids guided tours. This video “The Unassuming City Making Headlines Around The World” is where he spends a day walking around Nuuk in the snow and some great views of ice in the harbour. He even manages some dry humour regarding Trump moving in. Takes 38 minutes or less if you fast forward past any bits you find boring.
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Glad you brought it up.
You’re not going to be able to Nuuk those proud Greenlanders Donald!
Hard Being Greensays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 6:44 pm
Labor in trouble in NSW?
_____________________
Massive trouble.
One would have thought the LNP would have all their ducks lined up ready for an Election. Lines sorted, policies ready, people in place. Instead they’re backtracking on a multitude of policies, ignoring the referendums he promises, does mention Nuclear. Flat footed since Thursday.
If this ends up as a status quo Election which is appearing likely, who will the Liberals pick as opposition leader after the election.
”If this ends up as a status quo Election which is appearing likely, who will the Liberals pick as opposition leader after the election.”
Someone even further Right than Dutton…
Big momentum for Labor – any chance the Liberals might panic and dump Dutton in the next week?
The Liberal policy cupboard looks bare to me, and what they have announced is uncosted, poorly modelled and vague.
I saw an Albo ad on SBS earlier tonight too.