Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings bounce back, but not much change on voting intention from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports Newspoll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Despite the stable voting intention results, Anthony Albanese records much improved personal ratings, up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 53%, and increases his lead as preferred prime minister from 45-40 to 47-38. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up two on approval to 53%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1255.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. FUBAR, I presumed ⁿanyone with any knowledge of SMSFs would realise a $4 million Fund would have the maximum pension phase amount.

    I shouldn’t have to explain that

  2. FUBAR says: ‘The Australian offers fairly balanced commentary – despite what the posters here believe.’

    Oh please! What utter twaddle!

  3. How dare the High Court make decisions so inconvenient for the federal government?
    Will the government now invoke
    “S51 The government can make laws for (xxvi) the people of any race for whom it is deemed necessary to make special laws” to deprive the original owners of their right to compensation?

    After they do that they might then feel comfortable to support the rights of:
    Russia to take over Ukraine
    USA to take over Greenland
    Israel to take over Gaza

    Might is right after all!

  4. Perhaps Rupert Murdoch having recently written an editorial critical of Trump is having second thoughts about Trump’s acolyte Dutton.

  5. Albo’s response to the tariffs (after he just gave them half a billion USD for absolutely nothing thanks to aukus) was to say that it isn’t friendly.


    Bart: You know why these clothes are on sale, Mom? Because the kids who wear them get *beaten up*.

    Marge: Well, anyone who beats you up for wearing a shirt isn’t your friend.

  6. Diogenessays:
    Wednesday, March 12, 2025 at 10:42 pm
    What is going on? The Australian is saying Albo could not have avoided the tariffs even if he was Houdini, but The Guardian is saying he is facing criticism for not avoiding them.
    I’m confused.

    _______________________

    Right wingers want to bend the knee, left wingers want to fire the missiles. Everyone acting like we were personally targeted in a global trade war, when in reality we are freaking out about an extraordinarily niche export that we should be using ourselves yesterday, and the winning strategy of “doing nothing” doesn’t satisfy the hot heads.

    Of course, if people actually watched Albo’s press conference, “doing nothing” includes targeted business supports in the short term, assistance in finding new markets and diversifying trade, encouraging Aussies to “buy Australian” without stoking inflation, and call out the act as the self harm it is. But all of the above is a little much to fit in a news headline.

  7. The paulA’s and FUBARS are getting desperate, panic is setting in.

    It’s all over lads, Dutton the LNP and whatever person replaces Dutton after his election loss are no chance of winning an election this decade.

    Wait until the Trump damage to everyone’s investments worldwide hits!

    Dutton is going to have to come up with a better option than being Trump lite!

  8. I quite like this blog.

    I think Dr Will does a great job. Well done Doc! Legend.

    I have a few “complaints” about the posters and posers here. Despite it being around 3:50am where I am:

    I’m not left nor right. The only party I support is the “Terry Party.” There are so many blind partisans here it’s an insult to reason (Leftards and Rightards).

    So, my point is:

    Can we get over Albo buying a seaside mansion? Can we get over Dutton flying to some fundraiser? Can we get over Albo’s marriage? Can we get over Bandt’s ASX shares? Can we focus on policy?

    I truly love this blog and comment rarely but, seriously, enough of the stupid politics. I know Kirks and others have a blind faith, as well as others on the Right, and I call that:

    Religion.

    Off to bed now. Managed to seal a massive deal in Anchorage. I’m my own boss now (but I’ll drop by from time to time).

  9. SA Labor should be hanging its collective head in shame

    “Dr Megan Brooks gives explosive evidence to parli committee

    Explosive claims of political intimidation of a top doctor, flawed investigations of deaths, refusal to investigate clusters of adverse patient events, and more were made at a parliamentary hearing.

    Bombshell evidence at a parliamentary committee hearing alleges a crown solicitor’s letter from the Attorney-General’s Department threatened a top doctor with a maladministration and misconduct investigation for “embarrassing the state”, after she made contact with a coroner over multiple deaths linked to ramping.”

  10. Diogenes it’s just serene isn’t it!.

    Small target Dutts finally getting to the big dance at a time when opaque and evasive holdouts in the long grass until election day just won’t do it for them this time around. Supremely unlucky for Dutton.

  11. ”Trump has given Australia a timely reminder of the advice of the 19th century British prime minister Lord Palmerston – nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-has-done-us-a-favour-by-showing-where-we-stand-during-peacetime-20250312-p5lixf.html

    We can’t rely on the USA. We probably never could. We need to quietly adjust our policies accordingly. Ultimately, we can’t rely on friend and allies on the other side of the world.

    Actually, it’s not the first time. Britain was preoccupied with immediate threats on its doorstep in 1941. I can vaguely recall the consternation when the Mother Country decided to withdraw its force ”East of Suez” by 1971. Maybe that’s why we got into Vietnam?

    Kim Beazley is urging Australia to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP. It is now about 1.9%. I would like to beat our swords and subs into ploughshares, but the time for that is not on the horizon. A 1.1% increase is big hike. Maybe a modest rise in corporate tax and the top rate of income tax might be enough.

  12. Steve 3% is a cute number suitable only for EU nations insulated and cocooned by its nuclear armed members.

    Australia, if serious about maintaining sovereign and economic dignity moving forward after any American withdrawal should be aiming for a 10%. This could be an incremental medium term target over 10-20 years.

    A culture of compulsory military service for all 18-24 year olds should also be introduced into the national culture and norms. Additionally the pursuit of a small but highly potent arsenal of nuclear weapons will be the key.

  13. Been There,
    Peter Dutton is destined to be the Bill Shorten of the LNP. He thought he had the election and the Prime Ministership in the bag, only to see it slip through his fingers (I hope).

  14. “The economic risks to Australia are immense”

    Speaking of hyperbole.
    This decision is .0018% of Aukus, or .0009% of your nuclear sham.

  15. C@t, Why insult the legacy of Shorten with that putrid comparison?.

    Bill Shorten and his Keating-esk dogged and determined prosecuting at the dispatch box was the only reason Labor was even in a competitive position to challenge in 2019. He delivered a party on its knees

    -with a lower house delegation rivalling the 1996 defeat-

    into a competitive and viable entity after the 2016 election.

    Shorten knocked off Abbot and Turnbull during his tenure as opposition leader. If it weren’t for allowing useless Bowen to go to town with fiscal policy in 2019 he’d have knocked Morrison off as well and become PM.

    If you want to rise beyond a booth captain you’ll need to sharpen up Mrs Cat

  16. “The economic risks to Australia are immense”

    Speaking of hyperbole.
    This decision is .18% of Aukus, or .09% of your nuclear sham.

    They’ll be stealing our backyards next.

  17. Good on ya Terry!

    If your massive deal involves workers then look after your workers.

    If not enjoy the spoils of your deal whatever it is.

    Always remember where you came from.

  18. Been there, good to see you check in.

    You speak the truth. We can only hope this scare with encourage Albo to also not forget where he came from in his 2nd term.

    As Garrett said:

    It’s better to die on your feet than live on your knees

  19. Temu Trump deploying an interesting strategy to attack the government for failing to negotiate with a madman. Dutton and Gina are just paving the way for Labor to return to majority govt.

  20. Been There says:
    Wednesday, March 12, 2025 at 10:46 pm

    The High Court would be asked to interpret the new clause. There was huge risk in that alone. Constitutional Lawyers couldn’t agree how far reaching the proposed clause would be. I’m

  21. Diogenessays:
    Wednesday, March 12, 2025 at 11:03 pm
    SA Labor should be hanging its collective head in shame.
    _____________________
    Jesus Christ. How low can they go.
    We have had 10 years of that type of thing over here in Victoria.
    Looks like it’s now spreading across the border.

  22. Been There says:
    Wednesday, March 12, 2025 at 11:02 pm

    Only one Federal Government has lost power after one term since Federation. If Dutton loses this election he is hardly a terrible failure. He’s pushed Albo into being close to losing and probably minority government. How you think that means the end of Dutton as leader is beyond me.

  23. dave

    Diogenessays:
    Wednesday, March 12, 2025 at 10:42 pm
    What is going on? The Australian is saying Albo could not have avoided the tariffs even if he was Houdini, but The Guardian is saying he is facing criticism for not avoiding them.
    I’m confused.

    __________________
    The Australian occasionally has pretensions to being a quality newspaper. Sometimes they live up to it, mostly they don’t.

    And the Guardian has become quite anti-Labor in the last few months.

    Nadia mentioned this, and a few other posters have noticed.

    Is it pressure from advertisers or important financial supporters? Because most ordinary Guardian subscribers, like me, would not be supportive of this.

    I was particularly annoyed by their initial reporting of the “modelling” by the Liberal aligned Frontier Economics “showing” that Nuclear under Dutton would be billions cheaper.

    It was shoddy modelling, based on false premises, and it was almost certainly meant to be deceptive.

    The SMH then quickly called it out thank goodness.

    The Guardian have also been giving a voice to anti-solar and anti-wind farm rural astroturf groups, where they provide justification for blocking projects like” “you cannot put a value on land that has been in the family for generations”, as a reason for stalling the renewables rollout. If it was only on their own land, fair enough, but they are trying to stop any development in whole communities, and block those famers who do what the money from accessing the revenue stream.

    And Karen Middleton seems to have disappeared.

    Weird.

  24. Did FUBAR just raise the white flag of the LNP’s prospects at the election with that subtle little unlocking of his cubicle door ?.

  25. Good moniker Dog Act Dutton.

    I might take the rights to Dog Act Trump.

    But, then again, do I want any tariffs put against me?

    I think I’ll just stick with Been There because there is a lot of good stories to be told.

    So, Dog Act Trump is free for someone else to take up.

    I doubt there will be any shortage of takers.

    paul A, FUBAR, ScrommoII, Centre, BTsays it’s all yours!

    If I’ve got anyone wrong, or missed any Trumpsters, bad luck, I don’t care, nor does Donald.

  26. Taylormade

    I think what is most in common is the health department. NSW Health is legendary for its bastardry. I think it’s a problem in all states.

  27. Apart from being complicit in Antisemitism are also underpaying staff:

    “ Fair Work Ombudsman Anna Booth told the inquiry that her office was investigating wage theft across 26 universities, and had already recovered $180.9m in underpayments to as many as 99,000 employees.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/unis-probed-over-antisemitism-amid-reports-of-wage-theft-and-bullying/news-story/77723aa78ed6b233af3c51d142676bf5

    Those terrible corporate bosses, hey.

    Jail them?

  28. Both tomorrow’s Australian and SMH running headline features of LNP MPs leaking left right and centre dissatisfaction and anger over Dutton and his strategies. Small target strategy fury. Concern and alarm over the recent LNP/ Dutton loss of momentum and support in the polls.

    Geez, usually the party waits till the Sunday after the election to dispatch the leader.

    We are still at least 8 weeks away from the election. This looks like a moderate power play to ensure their candidates get up , for Kean to keep his job and to be differentiated from Dutton and perhaps the pipe dream of grabbing back a teal or two.

    It’s not even caretaker mode yet but the LNP is already preparing for continued wilderness and life after Dutton in a desperate furniture saving play.

  29. leftieBrawler says:
    Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 12:00 am

    I have never predicted an LNP victory at the next election.

    I withdrew and early prediction of a Labor victory some months ago as their polling number collapsed.

    It would be an unprecedented historic victory in the post-WWII era for the LNP to win the next election.

    However, hope remains. While the WA election result was terrible for the WA Liberal party, the massive swings against the ALP in State seats covering ALP held Federal seats, along with polling coming out of Victoria and NSW do demonstrate a path to victory is potentially there.

    But to avoid any misunderstanding – I do not expect, nor have forecast a Coalition victory.

  30. Trump doesn’t exercise because he believes the body has a finite store of energy. I’d imagine he doesn’t drive for a similar reason; more brain capacity can be allocated to other skills.

  31. If universities are underpaying staff, they should suffer the appropriate penalties. Thank goodness for the ombudsman – just the sort of oversight Trumpers would have us do away with.

    A bit of a stretch to accuse university leaders of being complicit with anti-Semitism. For some reason the right seem hellbent on promoting the myth and hysteria that anti-Semitism is rife in this country when it just isn’t. I guess it is an attempt to legitimise their inherent Islamophobia.

  32. Why are you calling me a Trumpster?

    Because he has violates, in the most grotesque fashion imaginable, everything you fraudulently pretend to believe in, yet you pay only the gentlest lip service in distancing yourself from him while endlessly dumping shit on everything he opposes or that opposes him (latest example: Greenland).

  33. FUBAR The link… from an article in The Australian?

    No one here can even get through the paywall and sure as hell I’m not giving those Murdoch grubs any money.

    No mention of anything about people protesting for the Palestinian people in there?

    Oh, there must be, that’s where the antisemitism slant comes from!

  34. I believe I have clearly defined my disdain for him multiple times.

    His statements about Greenland and Canada are ridiculous. Pointing out that the Greenlanders would be financially vastly worse off if they lost Denmark’s financial support is hardly a statement of support of the US invading the place.

    The tariffs are terrible policy. Not sure what else you want me to say about that or that my opinion on that is terribly different from almost everyone else’s?

  35. Golf Foxtrot Yankee says:
    Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 12:48 am

    The failure of Universities to protect Jewish students and staff from the attacks and harassment enabled antisemitism. The claim is continuously made that it is the Israeli government that is being protested and yet antisemitic harassment and attacks on students and staff are a hallmark of the protests.

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