Things are starting to crank up as the election moves closer into view, such that I can offer a second detail-packed post for the week. On the polling front:
• DemosAU has polling of both federal and state voting intention in Queensland, the former being relatively cheering for Labor, with a 53-47 two-party lead to the Coalition suggesting a 1% swing in their favour since 2022. The primary votes are Labor 31% (27.4% in 2022), Coalition 39% (39.6%), Greens 12% (12.9%) and One Nation 10% (7.5%). The state numbers show little change from the October election on two-party preferred, with the Liberal National Party leading 54-46 (53.8-46.2 at the election), from primary votes of LNP 40% (41.5%), Labor 30% (32.4%), Greens 12% (9.9%) and One Nation 10% (8.0%). The poll was conducted February 10 to 14 from a sample of 1004, with the pollster reporting an effective margin of error of 4.2%.
• A survey by the Australian Population Research Institute leads its principals, Katharine Betts and Bob Birrell, to conclude that voters support neither the “neoliberal agenda”, the “progressive values agenda”, nor a “big Australia”. Evidence for the first includes 67% support for protection of manufacturing “using tariffs if necessary”, with only 15% favouring the wholesale abandonment of tariffs; 47% support for higher taxes on high-income earners and big business, 18% for maintaining current tax rates and 24% for lower taxes across the board; 53% support for “subsidies for energy bills, solar projects and the like”, with 29% wanting them curbed; and 70% support for governments building “a large number of homes, both for rent and for sale”, with only 19% opposed. For the second, 53% disagree that “a woman is anyone who identifies as a woman, regardless of their sex when born”, with 25% agreeing, and 59% agreeing that migration policy should take into account “a migrant’s ability to fit into the Australian community”, with 28% opposed. Eighty per cent would favour lower immigration in some degree, with 11% wanting “the high numbers to continue”. The survey was conducted December 12 to 23 from a sample of 3023.
• Peter Brent at Inside Story has a useful piece on two pollsters tweaking the formulas by which primary votes are converted to two-party preferred, the conventional method of using preference flows from the previous election generally being thought to flatter Labor. YouGov’s polling going forward will apply a result combining “historic flows”, presumably from more than one election, with the respondent-allocated preferences it recorded in its massive sample MRP poll. This credits Labor with 79% of Greens preferences (compared with 85.7% in 2022), 59% of independent preferences (63.8%) and 31% of One Nation’s (35.7%). However, the “others” flow to Labor would appear to be higher now: YouGov says 49%, whereas I calculate the 2022 result at 42%. All we are told of Newspoll is that the 64.3% flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition from 2022 has been increased, guided by Antony Green’s calculation that their share at the October state election in Queensland was 73.8%, compared with a Queensland figure of 66.9% in 2022.
• A new election forecast model by John Collins, based on machine learning models making use of polling, demographic and economic data, is on the bullish side for Labor as these things go, estimating a 27.4% chance it will retain a majority.
Other news that’s been accumulating over the past few weeks:
• Clive Palmer again plans to impose himself on a federal election through a new party modestly called Trumpet of Patriots, a name pointing to an explicitly Trumpian agenda, will full-page advertisements already to be seen in the nation’s newspapers. The party has inhabited the shell of an entity that has in the past contested elections as the Country Alliance and the Federation Party, following the failure of Palmer’s High Court bid to overturn a law that prevented him from re-registering his United Australia Party, which he voluntarily deregistered it after the 2022 election. On Wednesday he announced the party would contest “all lower house teal and Liberal-held seats and potentially many Labor electorates”. Palmer himself will not be a candidate, the party’s mooted leader being Suellen Wrightson, who will contest the seat of Hunter.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports that “Liberals believe they are close but behind in Mackellar and Warringah, but privately concede Allegra Spender is unbeatable in Wentworth”.
• The Financial Review reports that Emma King, senior manager at Orica, is likely to be chosen as Liberal candidate for Shortland ahead of cardiologist and perennial bridesmaid Michael Feneley. The southern Newcastle seat has been historically safe for Labor, but the party’s position has weakened in recent times and its post-redistribution margin is 6.0%. The report notes concern among local Liberals that the party has left the redistribution too late.
• In a report on a Nationals plan to keep Barnaby Joyce confined to his own electorate, Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers notes the party faces a number of “hard contests” against independents, among them “well-known farmer James Gooden”, who is challenging former leader Michael McCormack in Riverina. The party is “bracing for a loss” in Calare, which Andrew Gee hopes to retain as an independent after quitting the party, and Pat Conaghan again faces teal independent Caz Heise in Cowper, who came within 2.3% of a surprise win in 2022.
• Carol Berry, chief executive of a Wollongong disability support non-profit, has been confirmed as Labor’s new candidate in the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, following Stephen Jones’ recent retirement announcement. Berry is a formal national secretary of the Greens who was twice a lower order Senate candidate for the party and, as Ben Raue notes on BlueSky, “came very close to being preselected” to a winning position on the party’s state upper house ticket in 2003. Keely O’Brien, general manager of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers, also nominated, but factional arrangements were widely reported as guaranteeing the seat for Berry’s Left faction rather than O’Brien’s Right.
• Having hitherto kept his cards close to his chest, Russell Broadbent has announced he will seek re-election as an independent in Monash. The 74-year-old Broadbent has served in parliament with a few interruptions since 1990, and quit the Liberal Party in November 2023 after suffering a heavy preselection defeat at the hands of Mary Aldred.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 4:10 pm
TPOF @ #1118 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 1:31 pm
From the Guardian:
Coalition pledges to match $8.5bn bulk billing investment ‘dollar for dollar’
Meanwhile, the Coalition says it will match “dollar for dollar” Labor’s Medicare announcement today, pledging to also invest $8.5bn into bulk billing in a commitment the government says will make 90% of GP visits free.
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This was predictable. And it will no doubt be repeated by both the “bipartisan”
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Which will completely ignore the fact that this policy only exists because the Labor Party put it in place. Dutton only matched it through gritted teeth. There is not a hope in Hades that Dutton would have suggested such a policy himself. His policy will be all geared towards Big Gina and mimic the philosophies of Trump and Musk. The fact that Labor made Dutton agree to this must be something that irks him daily, as he looks for any loophole to escape this commitment. If Australia is foolish enough to follow the USA’s path and elect a Trumpian government .
P1
This was predictable. And it will no doubt be repeated by both the “bipartisan” parties all the way through the campaign on major policy areas.
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The selling point of the Coalition is that you can vote for them because they will promise everything Labor promises if it’s popular. I rarely comment on other posters these days, but your shtick about same/same is exactly consistent with what the Coalition is promoting. Sometimes I really have to wonder whether you are that obtuse or whether you have another agenda.
I’m a bit guarded with the sledging, in fact I generally avoid it as I don’t wish to be taken off the site nor do I wish to get caught up in some useless banal discussion, often over a non event.
The Boss mentioned on Wednesday evening (when I was last on the site), that he’d had cause to recently remove a poster permanently off his site. You can scroll back and find out who that was if interested.
I notice too that the more senior/long term posters are keeping the discussion focused onto world events, politics, polls and political implications, and not personal nonsense.
The former is great and which is what the site is for. There are some great posters here atm.
The personal stuff – not good.
meher baba says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 1:18 pm
Ven: “Why is Trump pressuring Romania to go soft on accused rapist Andrew Tate?”
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Because they’re bros. Birds of a feather and all that. Although I like birds.
Yes rapists have to support each other
Entropy
Thanks for the compliment. But I don’t see myself as any type of Guru. Just someone with a hobby that I work at fairly hard and which has been fairly successful for me. I dare say that Centre is probably the same.
Irene says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 2:11 pm
Albanese needs to be seen as strong on the unskilled migrant narrative that Dutton will almost certainly deploy over the next 8 weeks.
Yes … Cole’s, Woolworths & Uber Eats use of cheap labour
Irene what you talking about asylum seekers becoming doctors; you just speaking stupid bs?
Good on anyone who can overcome adversity to become a doctor. Wow to that and wow in a different way to mentioning what you did.
OK, for those now supremely confident of a Labor majority government, where are the extra seats going to come from? Some sober analysis here please, without the barracking for Albanese which some people are often prone to be doing.
Nadia is the wisest person in here when it comes to polling, I always look forward to her observations.
Maybe it s all part of labor’s cunning plan…make the announcement early, knowing spud would match straightaway. Then spend the next few days talking about spuds appalling record as health minister.
They can also gazzump him with a mental health policy in the coming days and weeks, given spud has already announced his $500m plan.
That polling shows the folly of the coalition imitating Trump and Musk and is probably why Dutton has been schtum on Trump except for rightly chipping his remarks about the Russia and Ukraine war.
Bystandersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 4:40 pm
Entropy
Thanks for the compliment. But I don’t see myself as any type of Guru. Just someone with a hobby that I work at fairly hard and which has been fairly successful for me. I dare say that Centre is probably the same.
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Whether you are or not. I suggest your analysis of betting markets might be far more accurate and less inclined to be influenced by personnel bias. If we are to have betting market analysis on here. Which some people seem to take credence in. I suspect your assessment would be superior to some we have been getting.
‘Musk says US federal workers must justify their job or be sacked.’Afr this morning
That is how you run government!
So get on Musk s AI Grok and ask it its reply and then give it to Musk!!
Sustainable snail
What totally pisses me off is that it is immeasurably harder to become a doctor from the working class now compared to 50 years ago.
This guy summed it up very well
He also introduced me to the concept of the “Red Rooster Line”:
Cut a line across the city of Sydney, from Windsor in the north-west to Sydney Airport in the south-east, and a curious trend emerges.
On one side there are three Red Rooster take-away stores, while in the west there’s a whopping 27.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-25/disadvantaged-students-medicine-university/103141050?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=safari
Does the maga crowd want a new amendment in the US constitution for the right to be stupid?
Some seem so stupid that they think it already there.
“Why everything I hate I think is woke”
Sohar @ #1180 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 3:31 pm
I can better that, Sohar:
Democracy Sausagesays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 4:48 pm
OK, for those now supremely confident of a Labor majority government, where are the extra seats going to come from? Some sober analysis here please, without the barracking for Albanese which some people are often prone to be doing.
Nadia is the wisest person in here when it comes to polling, I always look forward to her observations.
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Who are you suggesting has made those claims on here in the last few hours?
While i’m pretty sure Scott has, i’m not sure he has been posting on here this afternoon.
Mostly interested
I was talking to an Adelaide Uni prof who said they could greatly increase their numbers of med students. There is an issue of standard of training though. Dropping the pass mark to get in could be an issue but I think plenty of good potential doctors miss out.
pied piper @ #1214 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 4:53 pm
^ Proving that people like you have outsourced their brain to the guy.
“Yeah well you know, that’s just like, uh, your opinion man”
The Dude
doyley @ #1161 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 2:59 pm
Yes. A seconded Albo term was always marked for broader reform.
Lets hope such policy rolls out in the coming weeks
Diogenes @ #1220 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 4:59 pm
Don’t they do what they do in NSW and conduct an aptitude interview so that students don’t do Med just because they got 99.5% in their exams?
If you ask grok on twitter who is the biggest spreader of misinformation on twitter, the answer is Musk.
Democracy Sausage @ #1210 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 4:48 pm
‘Supremely confident’ is the last thing anyone who supports Labor is around here. I guess you’re just saying that so that if your preferred team, the Coalition, wins you can mock us relentlessly for the next 3 years.
Oh, and nadia88 has been as spectacularly wrong as any of us with her predictions. The early election clanger being the most memorable.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:01 pm
Diogenes @ #1220 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 4:59 pm
Mostly interested
I was talking to an Adelaide Uni prof who said they could greatly increase their numbers of med students. There is an issue of standard of training though. Dropping the pass mark to get in could be an issue but I think plenty of good potential doctors miss out.
Don’t they do what they do in NSW and conduct an aptitude interview so that students don’t do Med just because they got 99.5% in their exams?
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There are a number of medical courses that take older postgraduate students too. So some people can be late bloomers. As aptitude tests at 18 don’t necessarily correspond to a persons aptitude at say 26 or older.
I’ve not seen any supreme confidence. Only an instinct to trash the Medicare announcement from the Labor death riders, then a deer in the headlights silence when Dutton matched it.
pied piper
So a person who tanks X would never get a job?
And a habitual liar would never, ever, ever get a job?
Are you saying Musk is a DEI hire?
You Magalanders need to get your addled brains in order and your lines untangled.
Watch out for the astroturfers. They spend day and night spamming the internet with their faux outrage and first world problems; as they don’t seem to have to earn an honest living these days.
C@t
They use a mixture of measures depending on the Uni. Some get in purely on their mark but most have a to have an interview and aptitude test. Or it’s a postgrad degree.
I don’t think there is any evidence that is better than purely the year 12 mark.
I don’t like the interview or aptitude test much. Are you trying to choose a cardiac surgeon or a psychiatrist or a GP?
dave @ #1220 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:00 pm
So … what was the first term for? R&R?
After her cosplaying and performative art for ‘teals’ and ‘community independents’ always remember that at the end of the day P1 wants the voters of Gilmore to preference Andrew Constance over Fiona Phillips.
This is a good reminder today of what a dilettante and all round hopeless politician Constance is:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-ferry-forced-from-service-after-10th-steering-failure-20250221-p5le54.html
Diogenes @ #1228 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:11 pm
Fair enough from your perspective but we seem to have generated some really empathic doctors since they started doing it here. And they must have passed their exams as well.
Player One says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:13 pm
dave @ #1220 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:00 pm
Yes. A seconded Albo term was always marked for broader reform.
So … what was the first term for? R&R?
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Fixing the corruption and incompetence and dereliction left by the ATM government.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1230 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:15 pm
Constance, and the Transport Minister before him, Gladys Berejiklian, who is also trying to quietly insert herself back into politics.
Also, anyone who knows the Coalition knows that Peter Dutton was the Health Minister to Tony Abbott, who promised, “No cuts to Health”… and then Dutton cut Health. 😐
Believe him and you’ll believe he has a nuclear reactor to sell you.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:07 pm
I’ve not seen any supreme confidence. Only an instinct to trash the Medicare announcement from the Labor death riders, then a deer in the headlights silence when Dutton matched it.
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After you posted that i thought i would look through and see who trashed Labor’s Medicare announcement. Surprisingly very few did. Even fairly tough critics like MB wrote a fairly positive post on it. Basically could only find two and as you suggested this was before Dutton matched. So you seem to be spot on there.
Democracy Sausagesays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:41 am
The Labor Medicare announcement reeks of Medicare Gold, it looks far too good to be true. A government makes an announcement like this when they know they’re behind in the polls.
ScromoIIsays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 3:35 am
Pah, reeks of Medicare Gold/Rust a la Mark Latham 2004.
The last desperate throes of a dying regime.
Entropy,
There was someone last night who was quick out of the box to equate it to Medicare Gold, iirc.
My GP’s first degree was in agricultural science.
I asked him once why he changed careers and he explained he and his wife both worked for the government in plant breeding and related areas.
They thought it was better that one of them moved to a different field rather than both being involved in an area where budget cuts were an ever present threat.
Entropy @ #1237 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:21 pm
You forget Lars who ridiculed it with a comparison with the Qld Labor 50c public transport fares, only to look foolish when people accurately fact checked with how popular the cheaper fares were. So popular in fact, that the Qld LNP had no choice but to match the policy.
Does Dutton’s insurance divestiture brain fart also apply to health insurance, or is that elitist sacred cow a protected species?
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:24 pm
Entropy,
There was someone last night who was quick out of the box to equate it to Medicare Gold, iirc.
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It was fairly quick scroll through so i could of missed some. There was other groups saying while it is good policy. It should have been implemented earlier or that both sides now have it. I counted them as supporting the policy but also wanting to downplay Labor’s role in implementing it.
Democracy sausage no one saying with the same mind that it’s going to be a labor majority government hell the most same people are saying that no one’s gonna make majority government it’s gonna be a hung parliament like I predicted months ago it’s not going to be a majority parliament anyway the new labour thing good don’t care that the coalition maths did keep hammering it that lab is for Medicare I wonder why the polls are so close in the first place people don’t trust the coalition
We (ie govt) cannot afford the Medicare announcement just like we won’t be able to afford any of the other announcements which come out of the election campaign.
Sadly it turned out exactly like the 50c transport fares, Labor proposed it and the Libs matched it.
This will plod along till after the election – and something forces the issue – most likely the aud or credit rating downgrade.
nadia88 @ #1203 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 4:32 pm
100% agree. So, when someone comes out with an unsubstantiated sledge against us Labor supporters I will reply to them to point out the fallacy of their statement.
sustainable snail says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 4:41 pm
Irene what you talking about asylum seekers becoming doctors; you just speaking stupid bs?
Good on anyone who can overcome adversity to become a doctor. Wow to that and wow in a different way to mentioning what you did.
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Well many asylum seekers have talent, ability and determination and if given the chance in our ‘lucky country’ would make the effort as a ‘thank you’ to Australia to succeed.
Train as a doctor. But Australian politicians prefer to demonise asylum seekers.
Labor copying Coalition policy. Again.
There are foreign trained doctors in Australia driving taxis or similar, not allowed to attempt to gain Australian qualifications.
I often listen to OS from the BBC if I am awake overnight. On News Radio. An asylum seeker in Denmark was spoken of. He became a wealthy IT professional, but as the story went, many asylum seekers ambition, or their parents, is to become a doctor. To give back to the country that accepted them.
Entropy @ #1241 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:29 pm
The downplay is a common methodology of those on the opposite side.
Quite right c@t!
Hey Oakeshott Country,
That is so disappointing.
We miss out on so many skills as our society won’t help people out that just need a bit of support to get to where they can be. And then give back.
Also many asylum seekers drive taxis with medical and other vital skills that they could contribute if given the chance.
The truth is that Albanese and let’s be honest, many Labor supporters needed something to gee them up with. Albo seems to have found a way to turn a heartland, true believer policy for Labor into something the party can campaign for.
There are other issues like industry and tech and skills and addressing cost of living where the government had some promising announcements last year, but just couldn’t hook it into a compelling narrative. If I wasn’t so absorbed with the US elections I’d have been pulling my hair out in frustration.
But here we are. Something for the members to get excited about, something that has the potential to flip the narrative onto a strong point for the government, and even better that it aligns with cost of living, an issue the government needs to build this campaign on.
And meanwhile, Dutton is awfully silent on his free lunches for businesses policy, isn’t he? Is it really appropriate during a cost of living crisis to expect taxpayers to pay for businesses to have a free lunch? Labor can have a field day with that one, IMO.
Cat mama I’m wondering if the hatred of Trump and Elon in Australia that has Peter going oh no I can’t act like trump’s because the people will hate me wonder why that’s why I find it shock in that he stand with Ukraine he probably has some people the smarter than the Sky News Trump riders saying that trump’s only popular to a small amount of Australians
I don’t know if I agree with you or not Irene, I am left of the alp but what is it that you want? I fear Dutton may have the propensity to put the boot on our neck? Don’t campaign for that! Please.