Yesterday’s interest rates cut has put election timing speculation into sharper focus, but the most widely touted option all along has been April 12, the earliest date that avoids overlap with the campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8. Labor MPs cited by The Australian today were “unanimously against a March budget, given the deficits it would forecast”, which is to say they would favour the three week window from March 29 to April 12 over an election on the other side of Easter in May. The first of these dates is rated a “small possibility”, and would help Labor prosecute the case that a corner has been turned on interest rates, which would be complicated in the very likely event that rates are kept on hold at the Reserve Bank’s next meeting on April 1. However, Labor sources cited by David Crowe of Nine Newspapers “play down the idea of an election being called this weekend”, as March 29 would require. Counting against April 12 is its being the date of Passover, sensitivity towards Jewish concerns being a priority at the moment. No one seems especially discouraged that it would land in the middle of school holidays in Victoria and Queensland.
The latest on the polling front:
• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor steady on 30%, the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 9%, with a steady 4% undecided. The 2PP+ measure has both Labor and the Coalition on 48%, after the Coalition led 49-47 last time. Monthly leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down two on approval after an unusually strong result last time to 43%, and up three on disapproval to 48%. Peter Dutton is down one on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 45%. The monthly “national mood” question likewise erases an anomalous improvement last time, with right direction down seven points to 31% and wrong track up five to 51%, both results being identical to the December survey. A quite of questions on “awareness of Labor’s achievements” records high awareness of $300 energy bill rebates (77% aware, 23% unaware) and TAFE and HECS debt cuts (66% and 34%), but relatively low awareness of consecutive budget surpluses (46% and 54%). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1146.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51.5-48.5 based on respondent-allocated preferences, and a narrowing from 51.5-48.5 to 51-49 going off 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 28% (down one), Coalition 39.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1666.
• The Australian yesterday has a supplementary result from Monday’s Newspoll finding 25% of the view that inflation would be higher than it is now if Peter Dutton and the Coalition were in government, 24% lower and 31% about the same.
Entropy @ #1100 Thursday, February 20th, 2025 – 11:00 pm
Oh yeah, that’s a valid point too. And just like his rival Kerry Packer he really screwed up his ongoing family legacy once that merciful day comes when Rupert is gone and the world will be better off for it.
ScromoII says:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 10:22 pm
“Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has accused Labor of fast-tracking Australian citizenship for people who fled Gaza to win votes in marginal seats at the upcoming election, even though nobody who has fled the war-torn strip since 2023 is eligible for citizenship.
Dutton made the series of unfounded claims about Gazan visa holders at a Sky News summit on antisemitism on Thursday, following reports the government planned to grant 12,500 people citizenship in a series of 25 ceremonies that the Home Affairs Department will hold across Australia by March 4.”
This, from the leftist Sydney Morning Herald.
Yawn. Only the totally naive would restrict themselves to tell only the total objective truth during an election campaign.
This is expedient, normal politics, plain and simple.
—————————————————————————————————
I think I’ve been trolled.
You must be joking if you equate lies, and “the total objective truth.”
Only the totally amoral would consider Dutton’s outright lies as “expedient, normal politics, plain and simple.”
But I forget we are now in the Trump era where, as Monty Python might have said: “the truth don’t enter in it.”
And if you think the SMH these days is leftist, you haven’t been reading it.
enjaybee @ #1099 Thursday, February 20th, 2025 – 10:56 pm
My pleasure. Happy to help. 🙂
“I admit he’s racking up douchebag points …”
I’m not sure who came up with it originally, but DOGEbag fits.
beguiledagainsays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:04 pm
====================================================
Dutton looking a bit desperate with that Hail Mary pass. Which he must have known, was very likely to be seen through. Doesn’t appear the actions, of what right want us to believe, of a man sailing to victory. More like the desperate actions, of a man clinging on, as the ground under him subsides. I think Dutton’s sinkhole could be in mar a lago.
The entire SMH article pretty much shoots down Dutton’s claims by publishing the facts presented by Tony Burke and the Department of. Most of those receiving citizenship are Indians and Kiwis.
Dutton claims are an easy to check pack of untruths.
I think we will soon see the polls tightening up for Labor. Can’t see us electing a highly conservative government with everything happening in the world.
“The dye that Queen Elizabeth 1st used to mask her face in her later years involved the use of Lead and Mercury …”
I’m not sure about mercury, but definitely lead:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venetian_ceruse
Kirsdarkesays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 10:42 pm
dave @ #1094 Thursday, February 20th, 2025 – 10:38 pm
Elon Musk was the inspiration for Tony Stark/Ironman. I certainly wouldn’t characterize Elon as a supervillain, or as evil. I admit he’s racking up douchebag points but he’s also done a lot of good. On a good day, I still have high hopes for him.
Yeah, of course, when Tony Stark/Ironman first appeared in 1962 and Elon Musk was born in 1971. I suppose Stan Lee had a time machine to make the link happen.
_________________
Ok Smartarse. I should have said he was the inspiration for Downey’s portrayal of Stark in the first Iron Man movie, which the director Jon Favreau has confirmed:
Ironman director, Jon Favreau, and its star, Robert Downey Jr., were developing the Tony Stark character for the Iron Man film, when Robert Downey Jr. suggested that they meet Elon Musk. Favreau said, “Elon Musk makes no sense — and that’s the reason I know him. When I was trying to bring the character of genius billionaire Tony Stark to the big screen in Iron Man, I had no idea how to make him seem real. Robert Downey Jr. said, ‘We need to sit down with Elon Musk.'” After the meeting, they decided to use Elon Musk as “inspiration” in their portrayal of Tony Stark on screen. And for Iron Man 2, the Tesla CEO also made an on-screen cameo appearance and allowed some of the filming to occur at SpaceX.
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/72327877-jon-favreau-discusses-elon-musk-iron-man-and-tesla-model-x-on-the-jimmy-kimmel-show?srsltid=AfmBOoo1QEejCnYMk9HC_M8xf6ff7FWUg_aWu1GuXy4lgHMTBcPoaZgf
davidwhsays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:19 pm
The entire SMH article pretty much shoots down Dutton’s claims by publishing the facts presented by Tony Burke and the Department of. Most of those receiving citizenship are Indians and Kiwis.
==================================================
Kiwis ironically, are fleeing terrible economic conditions engineered by their Dutton-lite Government.
And along comes Michaelia to scuttle her leader’s attempts of backing away from King Humpty Trumpty.
Barnaby’s had a few moments where he’s looked “weak, fickle and confused”.
Hasn’t missed a beat, kept his head down, reduced the afternoon “glasses”, attended DEI classes and will be more than willing if Littleproud were to manufacture his own stumble and make “the best retail politician in Australia” available.
I wonder how much support for the “Mr Spackmans” of the world are out there!
Ms Mettam is somewhat out of her division in the half of Australia seemingly very clear regarding their choice of representatives.
Over the last couple of years we’ve had some notable instances of “weak, fickle and confused” representatives from the west.
So there does exist some consistency.
The WA vote in the next Federal election will be interesting just to see where it’s all going in WA.
Kirsdarkesays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:24 pm
And along comes Michaelia
=======================================
“Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war”
Whiteboard not found in this instance.
Kirsdarkesays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:40 pm
Whiteboard not found in this instance.
=======================================
Tonights song:
Ukulele Whiteboard Request – Man in Black by Johnny Cash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9N-rqMGhhg
I’ll be interested to see whether the Donelon Phonomena has knocked Mr Dutton’s campaign “out of the park”.
The next tranche of polling will reveal something even if it’s nothing and just adds to the story.
The Victorian numbers remain so out of step for lots of reasons and may contribute to a heightened final scene.
Edge of the seat stuff!
60 out of 76 seats labor holds federally are in VIC/NSW.
Me thinks the labor vote in Victoria will collapse.
Cat, BK
Just catching up on the thread and noting discussion of Whyalla:
“ BK @ #883 Thursday, February 20th, 2025 – 6:04 pm
75% of all of the structural steel used in Australia comes from Whyalla.
Probably worth saving.”
There are several reasons why Whyalla is really important:
1. Yes Whyalla produces 75% of the high strenght structural steel used here.
2. Whyalla is the only local producer of long bar products. That includes railroad rails, piping and steel girders. These are essential and fulfill irreplaceable roles. They must be made with high strength steel and quality is critical.
3. Quality is an issue with Chinese steel imports. There have already been problems. Chinese steel reinforcing used in the deck of a NZ bridge turned out to be faulty. The deck had already been laid before this was known. They had to take out the deck and do it again. This was despite the Chinese steel having test certificates, which proved worthless.
https://www.procurementbulletin.com/steel-from-china-fails-tests-for-nz-bridge/
For cheap, low grade steel items you get for your garden at Bunnings, Chinese steel is fine. For high grade steel used in mining, civil infrastructure and major structures, it isn’t. A reliable supply of high quality, high strength steel is essential.
pied pipersays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:57 pm
60 out of 76 seats labor holds federally are in VIC/NSW.
==================================================
They do have 57% of Australia’s population too.
Never would have thunk it from senore Rabbit.
” Tony Abbott has launched a stinging critique of Donald Trump over his misinformation-riddled comments about Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy and apparent intention to favour Russia in negotiations to end the three-year war.”
“Abbott, an outspoken supporter of Trump, said the US president was “living in fantasy land” for blaming the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Zelenskyy
Link
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/75ab4e87-d8d6-4495-b0c2-b7b42666db15
Dee @ #1120 Friday, February 21st, 2025 – 12:06 am
Ooh, bet they’ll throw Abbott into the Oubliette for that one.
This was the story on the Chinese bridge steel failing in NZ.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/80609391/450-million-huntly-bypass-bridge-steel-fails-test
pied pipersays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:57 pm
[60 out of 76 seats labor holds federally are in VIC/NSW.]
[Me thinks the labor vote in Victoria will collapse.]
The vote may collapse but whether Labor’s seats numbers are much different will need a big collapse.
The Liberals problem is that their seat numbers aren’t necessarily going be increased.
Some of the existing Teal seats look secure and the Teals gaining a few more seats would not surprise.
I don’t believe it’s falling Dutton’s way and he’s not destined for the PMship.
The nuclear brainwave will be Dutton’s undoing.
Scary that this Temu Trump could get hold of the treasury benches… Especially on his judgement
on the crazy President… Thinking outside the box? what was he thinking??
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-wrongly-says-labor-is-fast-tracking-citizenship-for-gazans-to-win-votes-20250220-p5ldv2.html
dave thought process
Musk is not evil because he was inspiration for modern day Ironman movies
SDA and Shorten are evil
Whyalla Steel works should not be saved.
Single mother should receive child care support till the child turns 14 years
Lars is a good PB contributer
Australian car industry should not be saved because they are not worth saving because we get cheaper cars from elsewhere.
Admired Paul Keating when he was PM. That same PK said brutally described Australia’s geographic location as ‘arse end of the world ‘. That is the reason why Australia needs to have a sustainable manufacturing sector. With a manufacturing sector less than 10%, we have Tradies, who are mainly contract work, which probably is leading to their insecurity.
”
gollsays:
Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:49 pm
I’ll be interested to see whether the Donelon Phonomena has knocked Mr Dutton’s campaign “out of the park”.
The next tranche of polling will reveal something even if it’s nothing and just adds to the story.
The Victorian numbers remain so out of step for lots of reasons and may contribute to a heightened final scene.
Edge of the seat stuff!
”
Oh I don’t know about that
If ALP brains thrust have any brains, the 2 things should bring down LNP numbers
1. Sack Public sector employees in thousands. Dutton did not say where. So it could be anywhere.
2. Stripping the citizenship of Naturalised Australian citizens.
New thread.