Things are starting to crank up as the election moves closer into view, such that I can offer a second detail-packed post for the week. On the polling front:
• DemosAU has polling of both federal and state voting intention in Queensland, the former being relatively cheering for Labor, with a 53-47 two-party lead to the Coalition suggesting a 1% swing in their favour since 2022. The primary votes are Labor 31% (27.4% in 2022), Coalition 39% (39.6%), Greens 12% (12.9%) and One Nation 10% (7.5%). The state numbers show little change from the October election on two-party preferred, with the Liberal National Party leading 54-46 (53.8-46.2 at the election), from primary votes of LNP 40% (41.5%), Labor 30% (32.4%), Greens 12% (9.9%) and One Nation 10% (8.0%). The poll was conducted February 10 to 14 from a sample of 1004, with the pollster reporting an effective margin of error of 4.2%.
• A survey by the Australian Population Research Institute leads its principals, Katharine Betts and Bob Birrell, to conclude that voters support neither the “neoliberal agenda”, the “progressive values agenda”, nor a “big Australia”. Evidence for the first includes 67% support for protection of manufacturing “using tariffs if necessary”, with only 15% favouring the wholesale abandonment of tariffs; 47% support for higher taxes on high-income earners and big business, 18% for maintaining current tax rates and 24% for lower taxes across the board; 53% support for “subsidies for energy bills, solar projects and the like”, with 29% wanting them curbed; and 70% support for governments building “a large number of homes, both for rent and for sale”, with only 19% opposed. For the second, 53% disagree that “a woman is anyone who identifies as a woman, regardless of their sex when born”, with 25% agreeing, and 59% agreeing that migration policy should take into account “a migrant’s ability to fit into the Australian community”, with 28% opposed. Eighty per cent would favour lower immigration in some degree, with 11% wanting “the high numbers to continue”. The survey was conducted December 12 to 23 from a sample of 3023.
• Peter Brent at Inside Story has a useful piece on two pollsters tweaking the formulas by which primary votes are converted to two-party preferred, the conventional method of using preference flows from the previous election generally being thought to flatter Labor. YouGov’s polling going forward will apply a result combining “historic flows”, presumably from more than one election, with the respondent-allocated preferences it recorded in its massive sample MRP poll. This credits Labor with 79% of Greens preferences (compared with 85.7% in 2022), 59% of independent preferences (63.8%) and 31% of One Nation’s (35.7%). However, the “others” flow to Labor would appear to be higher now: YouGov says 49%, whereas I calculate the 2022 result at 42%. All we are told of Newspoll is that the 64.3% flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition from 2022 has been increased, guided by Antony Green’s calculation that their share at the October state election in Queensland was 73.8%, compared with a Queensland figure of 66.9% in 2022.
• A new election forecast model by John Collins, based on machine learning models making use of polling, demographic and economic data, is on the bullish side for Labor as these things go, estimating a 27.4% chance it will retain a majority.
Other news that’s been accumulating over the past few weeks:
• Clive Palmer again plans to impose himself on a federal election through a new party modestly called Trumpet of Patriots, a name pointing to an explicitly Trumpian agenda, will full-page advertisements already to be seen in the nation’s newspapers. The party has inhabited the shell of an entity that has in the past contested elections as the Country Alliance and the Federation Party, following the failure of Palmer’s High Court bid to overturn a law that prevented him from re-registering his United Australia Party, which he voluntarily deregistered it after the 2022 election. On Wednesday he announced the party would contest “all lower house teal and Liberal-held seats and potentially many Labor electorates”. Palmer himself will not be a candidate, the party’s mooted leader being Suellen Wrightson, who will contest the seat of Hunter.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports that “Liberals believe they are close but behind in Mackellar and Warringah, but privately concede Allegra Spender is unbeatable in Wentworth”.
• The Financial Review reports that Emma King, senior manager at Orica, is likely to be chosen as Liberal candidate for Shortland ahead of cardiologist and perennial bridesmaid Michael Feneley. The southern Newcastle seat has been historically safe for Labor, but the party’s position has weakened in recent times and its post-redistribution margin is 6.0%. The report notes concern among local Liberals that the party has left the redistribution too late.
• In a report on a Nationals plan to keep Barnaby Joyce confined to his own electorate, Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers notes the party faces a number of “hard contests” against independents, among them “well-known farmer James Gooden”, who is challenging former leader Michael McCormack in Riverina. The party is “bracing for a loss” in Calare, which Andrew Gee hopes to retain as an independent after quitting the party, and Pat Conaghan again faces teal independent Caz Heise in Cowper, who came within 2.3% of a surprise win in 2022.
• Carol Berry, chief executive of a Wollongong disability support non-profit, has been confirmed as Labor’s new candidate in the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, following Stephen Jones’ recent retirement announcement. Berry is a formal national secretary of the Greens who was twice a lower order Senate candidate for the party and, as Ben Raue notes on BlueSky, “came very close to being preselected” to a winning position on the party’s state upper house ticket in 2003. Keely O’Brien, general manager of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers, also nominated, but factional arrangements were widely reported as guaranteeing the seat for Berry’s Left faction rather than O’Brien’s Right.
• Having hitherto kept his cards close to his chest, Russell Broadbent has announced he will seek re-election as an independent in Monash. The 74-year-old Broadbent has served in parliament with a few interruptions since 1990, and quit the Liberal Party in November 2023 after suffering a heavy preselection defeat at the hands of Mary Aldred.
I’ll be placing the L/NP candidate last on my ballot paper.
Scott says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:43 pm
Resolve poll like the yougov and individual seating poll
in the bin
==================
They were closer to the final result at the 2022 election.
Much closer than Newspoll or Ipsos.
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
But anyway, “bin it”.
Medicare Gold was well received by voters. But I’m with you on the Tasmanian forests announcement. Suddenly Labor was no longer for the forest workers, but catering to the Bob Brown coterie. It wasn’t obvious to me until days after the workers cheered on John Howard.
“nadia88says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:35 pm
… and 24% in Victoria.
Does anyone know the poll period, or is that irrelevent now?”
Why would it be irrelevant now?
I am going to guess it was a week up until friday
Given the only event was a interest rate cut it seems pretty unlikely that the shift is anything but noise
Note that resolve was already skewing coalition including on preferred PM
Polling period from the age article
“The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1506 eligible voters from Tuesday to Sunday, a period that included the Reserve Bank decision and Labor’s rescue package for steelworkers in Whyalla, although most of the survey was completed before the government announced $8.5 billion for Medicare on Sunday – a move quickly matched by the Coalition.”
Nadia
I give Newspoll serious consideration. The rest not so much.
But if this Resolve is accurate, Labor looks gone.
Rex Douglas
The lib/nats leaning resolve poll is not accurate
I expect the Teals to hang on to every seat and win Bradfield from Kylea Tink’s dissolved seat of North Sydney. So the Libs really need to win the battlers over by sufficient margin to claim it.
Popular vote clearly to the coalition.
Things aren’t great for Labor, but I tend to agree with Kevin – “outlier alert”.
“Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham · 18m
#ResolvePM
ALP 25 L-NP 39 Grn 13 ON 9 IND 9* other 4
2PP 55-45 to L-NP respondent prefs
52-48 to L-NP last election prefs
*exaggerated cf election by being on ballot everywhere
outlier alert!”
I don’t know what people panicking even Kevin says this could be an outliner resolve is always been the most pro liberal and it’s polling compared to other polling outfits also which is going to take like any lower number for labour instead of the others that saying that the Labour’s percentage is at least 30 to 33 preferred percentage
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:41 pm
I’m not sure whether Albo and Labor expected Dutton to neutralize the Medicare issue so quickly.
_____________________
Labor now need to cough up the extra $500m for mental health.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:46 pm
They were closer to the final result at the 2022 election.
Much closer than Newspoll or Ipsos.
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
But anyway, “bin it”.
——————————
They were close in the week of the federal election, there is likely just under 3 months to go to the 2025 federal election , so yes this poll can be bin
Cos Quentin, outlier or not, the trend is not Albo’s friend. Ignoring this like Trump in the US is severe copium.
Albo’s papers look just about stamped. Time for the faceless men of Labor to start sharpening.
It may be an outlier, but it is still fair to say the poll itself is lead in Labor’s saddlebags.
Hold your nerves folks.
Labor’s got this.
It’s just like ’98 when the Lying Rodent was done like a dinner….or was he.
Yes True Believer what Labor should do now is change leadership before an election based on one pole that’s definitely an outliner no you’ll the smartest person ever holy s*** we have a bunch of Poles where was neck and neck and now everyone’s acting like big one I mean you know what a you people on your seem to be smarter than Labor hell you probably would how you get rid of Anthony Albanese when the polling hits 55 to 46 before election in 2022 I still say it’s gonna be minority parliament or hung
Taylormade says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:58 pm
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:41 pm
I’m not sure whether Albo and Labor expected Dutton to neutralize the Medicare issue so quickly.
_____________________
Labor now need to cough up the extra $500m for mental health.
___________
Hopefully something far more useful here. Our mental health system needs a serious overhaul.
Mundo you wasting to have negative opinions about polling what all this the one where you just go all crazy I’m glad you’re not leading labour because you’re probably do some big stupid like get rid of the leader a couple of months before election like we had a week where the polling was in Bad Flavor now we’re acting like this one’s the one they should worry about anyway where are the Liberal crazies are they gonna slobber over this one
True Believer
The political evidence which has been shown
Opinion polling and actual voting at the ballot box have not been close in comparison.
Opinion polling companies can not be in sync or consistent from week to week with each other , there is always 1 or 2 opinion polls which are completely different
Unlike in the actual voting at the ballot box, the results have been similar and consistent
There has been no swing from Labor primary vote to the federal liberal party
I sense Griff is returning to his Independent roots.
if dutton wins it will be the algorithms of the tech oligarchs that enhanced xenophobia again.
Mundo says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:02 pm
Hold your nerves folks.
Labor’s got this.
It’s just like ’98 when the Lying Rodent was done like a dinner….or was he.
___________
Great post! I also want some of what you are having 🙂
dave says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 7:05 pm
I sense Griff is returning to his Independent roots.
__________
A feeling in your waters? 🙂
Scott I like you but you have to be careful because you’re gonna sound like those crazy liberals who any pole that’s good for liberals is the correct Pole that is going to be in minority government
you guys are real cheerful bunch are you glad you weren’t around during World War Two
For me Quentin, Albo has a major uphill battle. Incumbent governments getting savaged everywhere.
Agree Medicare is brilliant but I think people have stopped listening to him.
Just don’t see the point of 3 years out when Jim I think will make a better fist of it.
The Resolve poll looks bad for Labor, but as KB pointed out, it’s likely an outlier. Better wait for other polls to confirm the trend before panic sets in.
The only big swing against Labor was in a Victorian State by-election , even then the Liberal party primary vote was under 30% and was 0.3% above Labor primary vote
Asleep with albo at the wheel, like dems with Biden.
What’s the big deal with cutting down a useless leader?
And, I don’t care how much Kevin cried when it happened to him.
Manufacture consent to ruin our kid’s future aye?
True Believer the problem I’m having is everyone Panics over and outliner where we have poles for the past week saying that it’s still anyone’s game s*** a pole that’s 52 to 48 is still anyone’s game I don’t like it when people you are supposed to be Labor supporters act like this is all that Anthony Albanese needs to go hopeful was 56 to 44 then I’ll be worried but we all know those numbers tend to go back to the encumbent in about Trump he barely won and now he’s he’s becoming less popular in the states that’s how people quickly turn on him and Elon
Thanks Scott, I’m not living up to my user name lol.
I get it, just the zeitgeist is just not with Albo, kindness is out – suits Dutton to a tee. If after Medicare, polls don’t start narrowing then the electorate may have already decided.
It will come down to whether enough seats can flip.
Just looking at the Resolve – we have a problem with apples and oranges with these Australian polls all having different methodologies.
Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the primary vote results, a key difference from some other surveys.
This also means the survey records their preferences in the way they would be allocated at an election, generating the two-party result of 55 per cent for the Coalition and 45 per cent for Labor using these self-nominated preference flows.
The result is narrower, however, when preferences are allocated in the way they flowed at the last election. In this calculation, the Coalition leads by 52 to 48 per cent.
So 52/48 is within MOE of the other polling.
Plus the PHON and Independents both on 9 is stood, given the Independents are sitting on 12 seats and PHON on zero.
And Tony Barry yesterday said Redbridge were picking up 49% of respondents not being firm in their voting intention.
Quentin Rountree
I am only commenting on what the recent political evidence has shown
And not once has the accurate poll which is election day
So far there has shown no movement towards the federal Liberal party from Labor primary vote
Yet the opinion polling continue to claim there is this mythical swing from Labor to the liberal party which has not yet been proven
Damon the problem is that the other poles have a neck and neck held this poll is still neck and neck and could also be an outliner that’s what I’m saying people need to be careful it’s still anyone’s game I know I keep saying this but this isn’t like 20 22 where we all know Labor had it this is more like gonna go down to the wire
Scottsays:
Yet the opinion polling continue to claim there is this mythical swing from Labor to the liberal party which has not yet been proven
__________________________
It’s those LNP media propaganda units.
New thread.
Thomas says: …
Quite right. I also think that if the trend is set, a change of leadership is out of the question.
Scott I’m just saying that the people need to calm down I said if the same to the liberal supporters I’ll say to the Labor supporters don’t take any polling at the moment that’s so out of whack I’ll be saying the same thing it was 52-48 to labour
”
sustainable snailsays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:09 pm
dutton is dangerous
he is scary
”
This I agree.
He said that he will strip off citizenship of Naturalised Australian citizens and repeated it.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:44 pm
[Except entropy Lucky Jims own forecasts are for billions in deficits.]
[Answering yes or no only pls confirm you have understood the point !]
Thanks Lars.
Given that you work in the Treasurer’s Office it’s good for you to share your insights.
This is a rouge poll.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:55 pm
[So, Labor’s answer to that was to do nothing to fix it for two and a half years. Until they needed a focus for Albo’s re-election campaign. That shows real dedication to principle.]
Labor has been busy repairing the economic vandalism committed by successive LNP governments prior to Labor gaining the government benches.
You did warn us earlier today your anti Labor bias will effect your mutterings.
For the attention and information of C@t. And others.
From Seeking Asylum to Studying Medicine. During the Turnbull/ Morrison government.
Soumiga Gopalakrishnan (BHealthSc ’21 ) ‘ Nine years ago, my family and I fled war in Sri Lanka. We travelled to Australia by boat and spent months living in detention centres before settling in Brisbane, where I finished my high-school education with dreams of attending university.
However, despite having the grades and achieving both dux and captain of my school, I did not know whether I would have the opportunity to go to university. Not because I didn’t want to-I had dreamed of being a doctor from the age of five-but because asylum seekers are classed as ‘international full-fee paying students’, which meant I would not have access to student loans and would have to pay my fees upfront.
Thankfully, ANU Vice-Chancellor Professor Brian Schmidt heard my story and urged me to apply for the ANU Humanitarian Scholarship, which would cover tuition and accommodation during my undergraduate degree.
This outreach from the Vice-Chancellor was my first glimpse of the supportive community connections fostered by ANU and, upon hearing the news that I had received the scholarship, I could not wait to be part of that community.’
Interesting that asylum seekers are classed as International students and expected to pay high fees.
Universities have become money making machines. Certainly under the 9 plus years of Coalition government . Student needs ignored it seems.
This resolve poll is quite problematic for the PM however unless there is a breakdown of where the samples were captured it isn’t really the killer blow.
I’d like to see some sample sets from a spread of the 18 seats held by cross benchers. Just like 1998 the 2pp is not that relevant, and perhaps even less so now. If the cross bench composition gets through the election relatively unscathed all Labor really has to do is win at least 65ish seats and then get to 76 with the majority of the crossbenchers guaranteeing confidence and supply.
Perhaps the only reason the PM hasn’t walked or been asked to go is due to his very progressive and urbane credentials when compared to the likes of the treasurer et al. The cross bench preference for him over any potential suitors maybe be all that is keeping him in the chair. Forget Chalmers or Marles- No QLD Rudd effect for the treasurer this time around. Perhaps Tony Burke however the news limited narrative over the last few days over the mass citizenship day may have fueled the resolve numbers.
Potentially 8 or more full weeks until election day. In that time there will undoubtably be more Trump dramas, Clive Palmer comedy and of course Labor will re run the 2016 medicare script.
Labor’s state executives will commission numerous internal surveys across most of the cross bench seats as well as any seat within a 5-8%ish margin nation wide to determine which need to be sandbagged and which can be cutloose. This began last week with sussex street commissioning some small sample size qualitative surveys in the Hunter, Whitlam, Shortland, macquarie and Werriwa.
I’d say by thursday at the latest next week they’ll have some numbers to work with to make sure said strategy is still viable.
with another disastrous number in Victoria the only option potentially would be Bill Shorten doing an about face. But for that to happen these surveys will have to be quite dire and Shorten would demand it be handed to him on a platter with atleast an 8 week lead in and a truce from the left. But as long as its suggestive that the crossbench is holding up along with Labor’s ability to get to 65ish seats things will stay the same.
What is wrong with people!?! What more could Labor have done in 3 years to get your tick of approval in this poll!?! The Coalition have snappy one-liners and TikTok videos. Is that what you want, ‘Politics At First Sight’ Reality TV government!?! Boy, are you going to be disappointed when reality slaps you in the face like a wet fish if you elect Dutton.
And, Irene, nothing will improve for types like your Sri Lankan boy. In fact, you just wait, Dutton will deport him back to Sri Lanka so fast your email box will spin out of control. I guess it will give you something to complain about for another 3 years because that seems to be what floats your boat, not actually DOING anything about it.