Things are starting to crank up as the election moves closer into view, such that I can offer a second detail-packed post for the week. On the polling front:
• DemosAU has polling of both federal and state voting intention in Queensland, the former being relatively cheering for Labor, with a 53-47 two-party lead to the Coalition suggesting a 1% swing in their favour since 2022. The primary votes are Labor 31% (27.4% in 2022), Coalition 39% (39.6%), Greens 12% (12.9%) and One Nation 10% (7.5%). The state numbers show little change from the October election on two-party preferred, with the Liberal National Party leading 54-46 (53.8-46.2 at the election), from primary votes of LNP 40% (41.5%), Labor 30% (32.4%), Greens 12% (9.9%) and One Nation 10% (8.0%). The poll was conducted February 10 to 14 from a sample of 1004, with the pollster reporting an effective margin of error of 4.2%.
• A survey by the Australian Population Research Institute leads its principals, Katharine Betts and Bob Birrell, to conclude that voters support neither the “neoliberal agenda”, the “progressive values agenda”, nor a “big Australia”. Evidence for the first includes 67% support for protection of manufacturing “using tariffs if necessary”, with only 15% favouring the wholesale abandonment of tariffs; 47% support for higher taxes on high-income earners and big business, 18% for maintaining current tax rates and 24% for lower taxes across the board; 53% support for “subsidies for energy bills, solar projects and the like”, with 29% wanting them curbed; and 70% support for governments building “a large number of homes, both for rent and for sale”, with only 19% opposed. For the second, 53% disagree that “a woman is anyone who identifies as a woman, regardless of their sex when born”, with 25% agreeing, and 59% agreeing that migration policy should take into account “a migrant’s ability to fit into the Australian community”, with 28% opposed. Eighty per cent would favour lower immigration in some degree, with 11% wanting “the high numbers to continue”. The survey was conducted December 12 to 23 from a sample of 3023.
• Peter Brent at Inside Story has a useful piece on two pollsters tweaking the formulas by which primary votes are converted to two-party preferred, the conventional method of using preference flows from the previous election generally being thought to flatter Labor. YouGov’s polling going forward will apply a result combining “historic flows”, presumably from more than one election, with the respondent-allocated preferences it recorded in its massive sample MRP poll. This credits Labor with 79% of Greens preferences (compared with 85.7% in 2022), 59% of independent preferences (63.8%) and 31% of One Nation’s (35.7%). However, the “others” flow to Labor would appear to be higher now: YouGov says 49%, whereas I calculate the 2022 result at 42%. All we are told of Newspoll is that the 64.3% flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition from 2022 has been increased, guided by Antony Green’s calculation that their share at the October state election in Queensland was 73.8%, compared with a Queensland figure of 66.9% in 2022.
• A new election forecast model by John Collins, based on machine learning models making use of polling, demographic and economic data, is on the bullish side for Labor as these things go, estimating a 27.4% chance it will retain a majority.
Other news that’s been accumulating over the past few weeks:
• Clive Palmer again plans to impose himself on a federal election through a new party modestly called Trumpet of Patriots, a name pointing to an explicitly Trumpian agenda, will full-page advertisements already to be seen in the nation’s newspapers. The party has inhabited the shell of an entity that has in the past contested elections as the Country Alliance and the Federation Party, following the failure of Palmer’s High Court bid to overturn a law that prevented him from re-registering his United Australia Party, which he voluntarily deregistered it after the 2022 election. On Wednesday he announced the party would contest “all lower house teal and Liberal-held seats and potentially many Labor electorates”. Palmer himself will not be a candidate, the party’s mooted leader being Suellen Wrightson, who will contest the seat of Hunter.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports that “Liberals believe they are close but behind in Mackellar and Warringah, but privately concede Allegra Spender is unbeatable in Wentworth”.
• The Financial Review reports that Emma King, senior manager at Orica, is likely to be chosen as Liberal candidate for Shortland ahead of cardiologist and perennial bridesmaid Michael Feneley. The southern Newcastle seat has been historically safe for Labor, but the party’s position has weakened in recent times and its post-redistribution margin is 6.0%. The report notes concern among local Liberals that the party has left the redistribution too late.
• In a report on a Nationals plan to keep Barnaby Joyce confined to his own electorate, Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers notes the party faces a number of “hard contests” against independents, among them “well-known farmer James Gooden”, who is challenging former leader Michael McCormack in Riverina. The party is “bracing for a loss” in Calare, which Andrew Gee hopes to retain as an independent after quitting the party, and Pat Conaghan again faces teal independent Caz Heise in Cowper, who came within 2.3% of a surprise win in 2022.
• Carol Berry, chief executive of a Wollongong disability support non-profit, has been confirmed as Labor’s new candidate in the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, following Stephen Jones’ recent retirement announcement. Berry is a formal national secretary of the Greens who was twice a lower order Senate candidate for the party and, as Ben Raue notes on BlueSky, “came very close to being preselected” to a winning position on the party’s state upper house ticket in 2003. Keely O’Brien, general manager of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers, also nominated, but factional arrangements were widely reported as guaranteeing the seat for Berry’s Left faction rather than O’Brien’s Right.
• Having hitherto kept his cards close to his chest, Russell Broadbent has announced he will seek re-election as an independent in Monash. The 74-year-old Broadbent has served in parliament with a few interruptions since 1990, and quit the Liberal Party in November 2023 after suffering a heavy preselection defeat at the hands of Mary Aldred.
Australia has had plenty of refugees, as distinct from asylum seekers who come by boat via people smugglers, who have gone on to great things in our country. For example, the former refugee and former Governor of South Australia, Hieu Van Le. he is but one of many. Gout Gout’s parents being another example.
So, Irene, if you could not make such baseless assertions as you do it would be appreciated by us.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:31 pm
We (ie govt) cannot afford the Medicare announcement just like we won’t be able to afford any of the other announcements which come out of the election campaign.
Sadly it turned out exactly like the 50c transport fares, Labor proposed it and the Libs matched it.
This will plod along till after the election – and something forces the issue – most likely the aud or credit rating downgrade.
==================================================
We can now afford it comfortably thanks to Labor’s budget repairs from the huge fiscal debt and deficit of the LNP years.
Medicare Gold was a brilliant policy, far more brilliant than Latham realised but why the dickhead decided to announce it 1 week before the election will forever be a mystery.
Confessions @ #1249 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:33 pm
This is indeed the truth. But it is a truth that some here find hard to accept. Nor do those same people yet accept that having had to wait two and a half years for Albo to get off his bum is not a really great way to convince the voters that he should be gifted a second term.
Fortunately, there is a way to ensure that the second term of an Albo government has a bit more backbone than his first term did.
Quentin Rountree @ #1249 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:33 pm
Trump didn’t act like Trump is acting now, before the election, either. As people have observed, now that the Republican Congress has put together their Budget, what happened to ‘No tax on Tips; No Tax on Social Security; and No Tax on Overtime’?
Sounds just like Tony Abbott, doesn’t it? So I wouldn’t believe Peter Dutton either as far as his promises are concerned, and only as far as I could throw him.
Except entropy Lucky Jims own forecasts are for billions in deficits.
Answering yes or no only pls confirm you have understood the point !
I’d seriously question P1’s basic knowledge of the seat she apparently resides in. A few weeks ago I read her state that Gilmore is such a write off that the campaign won’t go any further south than south Nowra.
Never mind Fiona Philips and labor won a majority of booths in the central and southern parts of the electorate.
Australian economist Justin Wolfers has crunched the DOGE numbers on tax dollars saved and is finding things don’t add up. When you extrapolate the $7.8b in DOGE savings to every American you wind up with $21-odd per person in savings.
Trump has said he will return 20% of DOGE savings to every American, which means if I were in the US I’d be asking where my $4.29 DOGE dividend is. 😆
https://bsky.app/profile/justinwolfers.bsky.social/post/3lisbeo3zxo2l
If that’s how you run a government it’s a government of smoke and mirrors and not much else.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:44 pm
Except entropy Lucky Jims own forecasts are for billions in deficits.
Answering yes or no only pls confirm you have understood the point !
=========================================================
I never understand your point. I believe your role on this blog is likely to be pointless. If so, you fulfill that role very well.
Oakeshott Country @ #1256 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:41 pm
I was all in for Medicare Gold as a long overdue overhaul of the scheme.
The bigger question for me is why Latham went for that bloody handshake…?!
Certainly ain’t no asylum seeker reaching their potential under either major party. That is a fact.
But Dutton will be worse than bad. He is one of the most idealogically racist politicians of this generation.
I know what how he treated Aboriginal kids when he was a cop.
The last time Dutton had anything to do with Medicare bulk billing he tried to kill it as Health Minister. Until today he has never mentioned fixing it and had no ideas.
He was so ambushed by Labor’s announcement that he rushed to match it without doing the numbers.
He is a sitting duck for Labor to question his bona fides again and again as willing to carry through the promise.
Who do you trust to improve bulk billing – the party that introduced it or the party that tried to kill it – indeed, the very politician who tried to kill it?
Still waiting to hear back on QLD LNP’s “No new stadiums” for Brisbane Olympics 2032…
TPOF @ #1262 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:53 pm
Clearly, the party to trust is the one that ignored the issue for two and a half years.
Or something.
”
steve davissays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 3:05 pm
Doyley
The best way to go. Completely wedge Dutton.
If he gets into power he will hate having to honour those promises.
”
How many promises is Trump keeping after he became POTUS. Zero. Same with Dutton. Oops! He will say and ask us to suck on lemons after winning the election.
Dutton was the worst health minister I have minister I have seen. Even worse than Abbott.
People, who voted for Trump, what is the worst that can happen they vote for Trump. Now they are seeing with their own eyes and experiencing themselves.
Make no mistake. Dutton is Trump mini-me. Michaela Cash said so.
sustainable snailsays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:49 pm
Certainly ain’t no asylum seeker reaching their potential under either major party. That is a fact.
But Dutton will be worse than bad. He is one of the most idealogically racist politicians of this generation.
I know what how he treated Aboriginal kids when he was a cop.
======================================================
Why isn’t there any media in this country with the guts to do an exposé on that?
“Clearly, the party to trust is the one that ignored the issue for two and a half years.”
There is no party that ignored the issue for two and a half years – unless you are referring to the Liberal Party. But you couldn’t be. Because there was not a day in the 10 years they were last in power when they were not actively trying to destroy it. First by a full frontal assault led by Dutton and, when that failed, by the death of a thousand cuts. Every month, week and day they were in power.
“Democracy Sausagesays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 4:48 pm
OK, for those now supremely confident of a Labor majority government, where are the extra seats going to come from? Some sober analysis here please, without the barracking for Albanese which some people are often prone to be doing.
Nadia is the wisest person in here when it comes to polling, I always look forward to her observations.”
Putting aside the mischaracterisation, and that I am inclined to think the Labor will end up just below majority, Labor currently sits on 78. Redistribution give up a seat but have one notionally shifted Labor (Menzies), a new notionally Labor in WA…roughly nets out but even if you start from 77
They could easily win two back from the Greens in Queensland…win back fowler in Sydney. And then even a uniform swing of 2 % doesn’t get you back to 75.
…and then it is not clear where it is guaranteed to lose seats? Current polling points to losses but there is also incumbency / first term govt factor, sophomore effects etc
Labor could have a 3% 2PP swing against and still end up in majority quite plausibly. Bludger Track currently has it at 2.6%.
I would suggest some of the above is feeding into any confidence you are perceiving.
Meanwhile the Libs have to gain perhaps 15 seats for a plausible crack at minority government
Catmama yeah but I think the difference between Tony Abbott and Peter is that well Tony was popular until he did that budget that’s that’s why I find it funny that people think that Peter has a chance for majority he’s also not liked but this announcement about Medicare good
Entropy @ #1266 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:56 pm
Hmmm. Good question. Might it have something to do with the fact that it might actually improve Dutton’s popularity with about as many people who would find it disturbing? And perhaps even more than that in a few key marginal seats?
TPOF @ #1267 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:59 pm
So, Labor’s answer to that was to do nothing to fix it for two and a half years. Until they needed a focus for Albo’s re-election campaign. That shows real dedication to principle.
People have a right to seek asylum under the International Refugee Convention which Australia is signatory to. Not everyone can be lucky enough to meet the lotto of official channels. People who arrived by boat have done amazing things. Australia is cruel on how it treats asylum seekers by boat. Its a really healthy approach to treat people with PTSD this way hey?
Player Onesays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:00 pm
Entropy @ #1266 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:56 pm
sustainable snailsays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:49 pm
Certainly ain’t no asylum seeker reaching their potential under either major party. That is a fact.
But Dutton will be worse than bad. He is one of the most idealogically racist politicians of this generation.
I know what how he treated Aboriginal kids when he was a cop.
======================================================
Why isn’t there any media in this country with the guts to do an exposé on that?
Hmmm. Good question. Might it have something to do with the fact that it might actually improve Dutton’s popularity with about as many people who would find it disturbing? And perhaps even more than that in a few key marginal seats?
=====================================================
It certainly wouldn’t improve his popularity with me, granted which is already around zero. Would it with you?
Fess
The handshake was symptomatic of Latham – no inner voice. It is no wonder boring John Howard appealed more to the voters.
On the campaign trail I thought we had a chance until the day after the release of Medicare Gold and the bizarre multi billion plan for Tasmanian forests. The electors thought he was making it up on the run.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:39 pm
Australia has had plenty of refugees, as distinct from asylum seekers who come by boat via people smugglers, who have gone on to great things in our country. For example, the former refugee and former Governor of South Australia, Hieu Van Le. he is but one of many. Gout Gout’s parents being another example.
So, Irene, if you could not make such baseless assertions as you do it would be appreciated by us.
——————. ———-
Your ignorance is showing again. So embarrassing for you. With your nasty comments. Labor needs to grow up. Asylum seekers were welcomed during the Fraser Liberal government, and others since, Hawke, Keating even in the early years of Howard.
The surgeon Munjed Al Muderis escaped the cruelty of Saddam Hussein, eventually in a leaky boat from Indonesia in late 1999.
Spent months in a detention centre and went on to be a pioneering surgeon designing prosthetics. Will be others, not just those legally allowed in refugees.
But Labor is usually under the foot of the modern Liberals on many issues. Courage not part of the bosses plan. Can’t articulate a more humane policy. Weak people.
A Tasmanian Labor senator, Lisa Singh, was discarded by Labor in the 2010’s wanting a different Labor policy.
Labor does their best to be irrelevant for many people.
Player One says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 5:55 pm
TPOF @ #1262 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:53 pm
“Who do you trust to improve bulk billing – the party that introduced it or the party that tried to kill it – indeed, the very politician who tried to kill it?”
Clearly, the party to trust is the one that ignored the issue for two and a half years.
Or something.
__________
Considering this is not the first initiative to improve bulk billing in the past two and half years (https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/increases-to-bulk-billing-incentive-payments), there are two parties that are ignoring the issue.
The Coalition and you 🙂
dutton is dangerous
he is scary
Labor has promised $8.5 to start to fix bulk billing. Lib luvvies who are bagging Labor for not having done anything up to now (which is a lie anyway) are wasting their time. People want this fixed, not just to apportion blame. The only question is “who do you trust to fix it”?
Sad that the Labor haters are so desperate they will clutch at any straw as a diversion. Even the Murdoch media are more interested in promoting Dutton’s fake “match and raise” than going down this stupid path.
Player One says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:03 pm
TPOF @ #1267 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 5:59 pm
“Clearly, the party to trust is the one that ignored the issue for two and a half years.”
“There is no party that ignored the issue for two and a half years – unless you are referring to the Liberal Party. But you couldn’t be. Because there was not a day in the 10 years they were last in power when they were not actively trying to destroy it. First by a full frontal assault led by Dutton and, when that failed, by the death of a thousand cuts. Every month, week and day they were in power.””
So, Labor’s answer to that was to do nothing to fix it for two and a half years. Until they needed a focus for Albo’s re-election campaign. That shows real dedication to principle.
________
Another furphy. I assume it is not malicious and purely out of ignorance 🙂
Irene, howard was terrible on refugees
Howard is where all the terrible abuse of refugees started!
Justify Tampa and Children Overboard!
Griff at 6.09
There’s no point in addressing lies with the truth. The liars don’t care as long as their lies are out there.
The real trick is to run on trust. Mundo actually had it right earlier when he said Labor should say “Labor’s Medicare” at every opportunity.
Drive it home that Medicare is Labor’s and only Labor’s. Let Labor drive home that only they – not untrustworthy me-too Dutton – can be trusted with Medicare.
Sorry to disappoint:
Resolve 55:45 w Labor primary 25
Eine Katastrophe droht
Resolve
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-leads-labor-on-course-for-election-defeat-according-to-shock-poll-20250223-p5ledc.html?btis
Xenophobia has always been a problem in Australia.
Howard idealogically chose to ramp up xenophobia against asylum seekers.
Forever and a day, the media has said the ALP was dragged kicking and screaming to be “tough on boats”, etc. The hardheads with power at all cost did not care but there were many ALP people who had a big problem with the harsh refugee policy to mirror the Liberal/National parties.
Those ALP people went to the Greens.
But let’s get this clear. It was howard and ruddock who capitalised on fears in the 911 era.
Comes the hour; comes the man
Gerald is ready to intervene
(The resolve is worse than when he intervened in NSW)
The bell is tolling for Albo OC!
Time for the absolute last minute emergency Colin!
Doctor Wong and Doctor Butler must concur after these latest test results!
Well the swing is on with Resolve. Looking terminal for Albo. His elocution and public speaking has always been a major factor.
How you lose to Dutton is a head scratcher. Is there time for Jim to rescue it ?
Only hope is marginal seats telling a different story.
“Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:19 pm
Sorry to disappoint:
Resolve 55:45 w Labor primary 25
Eine Katastrophe droht”
Just as likely that is setting up you losers for disappointment. No corroboration with any of the other polls
“True Believersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 6:29 pm
Well the swing is on with Resolve. Looking terminal for Albo. His elocution and public speaking has always been a major factor.
How you lose to Dutton is a head scratcher. Is there time for Jim to rescue it ?
Only hope is marginal seats telling a different story.”
And, you know, an outlier poll turning out to be an outlier
… and 24% in Victoria.
Does anyone know the poll period, or is that irrelevent now?
People have stopped listening to Albo.
Buying ur way out of trouble clearly isn’t going to work for Team Albo.
If only they had rolled him 12 months ago….
Could be as simple as people don’t like the sound of albo’s voice. No pun intended. It sounds weak and lacking conviction.
Jim sounds decisive, to the point, quick response and with facts. He would smash Dutton in a debate.
As crazy as it sounds, Albo should do the graceful exit, getting married, health concerns, retirement and give Jim a shot.
Albo reminds me of Beasley, nice guy but second place, it’s just he had the worst ever PM in scomo to beat.
Why must Labor lose before Jim gets a shot. Do something ALP!
It’s Jim Scullin levels – without a global depression or split.
This is the end times .
Yep, so Resolve Poll (I didn’t organise this one by the way)
* ALP 25% (down 2)
* LNP 39% (up 1)
* GRN 13% (steady)
* PHON 9% (up 2)
* Others 14% (down 1)
Rough 2PP – looking like 53 LNP, maybe higher.
Told you this poll was due!
Poll period is probably the most important with this one. I gather it’s post RBA, pre $8.5b
OK. Well we await Roy Morgan tomorrow..
That is certainly a disappointing Resolve Poll. And I must say I am quite surprised given events on the last week.
I’m not sure whether Albo and Labor expected Dutton to neutralize the Medicare issue so quickly.
Evening all. I was out catching up with friends today (a dozen people, mostly male, ages 40 to 60).
There was not a single negative comment about Albo’s Medicare funding policy. The worst comment was “why didn’t they do it two years ago”? Its a definite vote winner IMO.
The backbench may revolt – if they don’t move on Albo immediately.
Dutton is eminently beatable – just not with Albo at the helm.
Resolve poll like the yougov and individual seating poll
in the bin
There is no way the federal lib/nats 2pp is 55% with the lib/nats combined primary vote 39%
I guess we may not see Lars Von Trier get excited again after this , so let Lars Von Trier enjoy it
I’ll leave you to do the analysis Lars, lest I be accused of “arranging this poll in person”.
Freshwater hopefully soon. Remember, the poll period is important.
A-E – I saw your comment earlier this arvo too, before it got pulled.
I wouldn’t type something like that about you.