The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Nine Newspapers offers cold water for the notion that an interest rate cut might have improved Labor’s fortunes, giving the government its worst result for the term: Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 25%, the Coalition is up one to 39%, the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation is up two to a new high of 9%. Having earlier shied away from two-party measures, the pollster is evidently now regularly publishing respondent-allocated figures, which in this case have the Coalition lead blowing out from 52-48 to 55-45. Applying 2022 election preference flows would have it at 53-47.
There are only slight movements on leadership ratings, with Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton both up a point on both approval and disapproval, Albanese to 37% approval and 58% disapproval and Dutton to 41% approval and 51% disapproval. Dutton leads 39-35 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-34. The poll was conducted Tuesday (the day of the rate cut) to Sunday from a sample of 1506. A second opinion may be along later this evening from Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review.
UPDATE: No respite for Labor from Freshwater Strategic, which has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 51-49 last month to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 41% (up one) and Greens 13% (steady). Buried beneath these numbers is Labor’s one bit of good news: Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 35% and down four on disapproval to 46%, Peter Dutton is steady at 36% and up four to 44%, and Albanese opens up a 45-43 lead as preferred prime minister after a 43-43 result last time. The report also says there was “a three-point increase in support for the notion the country was headed in the right direction and a four-point increase in the belief among respondents that their households would be better off in a year”. The poll is in the print edition of the Financial Review, and will presumably appear in the online edition in the early hours. It was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1038.
I should also make note of last week’s quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS: Liberal down one to 34%, Labor down one to 30%, Greens down one to 13% and Jacqui Lambie Network up two to 8%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Labor’s Dean Winter as preferred premier is out from 43-37 to 44-34. The poll was conducted February 11 to 18 from a sample of 1000.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 at 11:43 pm
Australian insider trading laws prohibit a person from trading in securities whilst in possession of nonpublic price sensitive information so the question is did Dutton use information not known to the public before it become public but widespread media speculation and gossip might be enough to put Dutton in the clear and by the time Dutton would have heard about it many others would also have known about it and that’s why Davidwh is right about it being hard to prove Dutton did anything illegal because it wasn’t hard to guess the government was going to support the banks to avoid a banking meltdown and Australian banks were very cheap at the time.
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Your last sentence is the contradiction though. If everyone knew, the banks wouldn’t be cheap. So obviously everyone didn’t, as the banks price on the ASX at that time indicates.
dave
You could be right about Sam Maiden.
Revenge is a powerful motivator.
Deesays:
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 at 11:48 pm
This looks like it’s come from inside the Coalition tent.
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If it does Dutton is really in trouble. So if it comes from somebody in the room when Turnbull discussed whether to support this Government policy or not. That person will certainly know who else was in the room.
Umm sorry to interrupt someone male loathing but the age gap was manual labor catching up to men and as time goes on the labor is not as hard so that gap is narrowing.
The last thing any sane person would do is authorise a dirty tricks hit t barely a day after the dropping of a ln encouraging 51-49 roy Morgan poll
Dutton has cultivated plenty of enemies from within the Liberals Party over the years.
Dutton’s attempt to “shove” Turnbull aside only to be himself “shoved” aside by Morrison is a very good indication of Dutton’s support base.
Plenty of Dutton’s Liberals Party enemies still reside within the collective “bowels ” of the Liberals Party.
Some are in Dutton’s shadow Ministry.
This “share” relevation comes as no surprise.
There’ll be more before May 17th!
Entropy not everyone acts on rumour particularly when the markets have been falling to the extent they were. It becomes greyer when the person who acts on the rumour is in a position to put more weight on the rumour than the ordinary person.
Perplexity tells me there is no statute of limitations on insider trading.
Entropy says:
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 at 11:51 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Tuesday, February 25, 2025 at 11:43 pm
Australian insider trading laws prohibit a person from trading in securities whilst in possession of nonpublic price sensitive information so the question is did Dutton use information not known to the public before it become public but widespread media speculation and gossip might be enough to put Dutton in the clear and by the time Dutton would have heard about it many others would also have known about it and that’s why Davidwh is right about it being hard to prove Dutton did anything illegal because it wasn’t hard to guess the government was going to support the banks to avoid a banking meltdown and Australian banks were very cheap at the time.
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Your last sentence is the contradiction though. If everyone knew, the banks wouldn’t be cheap. So obviously everyone didn’t, as the banks price on the ASX at that time indicates.
The GFC was very remarkable. For a few hours after the collapse of Lehman Bros the foreign exchange market ceased to exist. It was almost impossible to trade financial instruments of any kind. There was widespread paralysis…settlements could not be made and therefore commitments could not be accepted/created.
The system was almost entirely illiquid for several weeks. This eased but did mean that financial markets were not operating ‘efficiently’. That meant that many financial instruments were seriously mis-priced. This applied to financial stocks in particular, which were implicitly difficult to price when their balance sheets and earnings were inherently in doubt.
The response of the Rudd government – and of the government of China – meant that many of the worst shocks soon passed in this economy. Rudd did very well by us….though received almost no credit for it at all.
davidwhsays:
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 at 12:07 am
Entropy not everyone acts on rumour particularly when the markets have been falling to the extent they were. It becomes greyer when the person who acts on the rumour is in a position to put more weight on the rumour than the ordinary person.
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Acting on a rumour is little better than guessing. Acting on a known fact is a whole different matter. If the information Sam Maiden has, includes information that Dutton knew this fact, he is in trouble.
Entropy I have already agreed that if Dutton was in possession of confidential information and acted on it he is in strife. However at this time we are still speculating.
pied piper says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 at 12:00 am
Umm sorry to interrupt someone male loathing but the age gap was manual labor catching up to men and as time goes on the labor is not as hard so that gap is narrowing.
Oh, I do not loathe males. I’m affected by the ill-health of my lifelong friends. None of my friends – lawyers, teachers and writers – were labourers. In every case their wives will outlive them by at least 15 or 20 years. Some of the heroes of my youth died in their 50s. Ticker. Stroke. The only manual worker among the group was this bludger. I reckon I will outlive my brothers. I am the stronger for the toil.
It’s sad to watch. My brothers will not allow themselves to do things that would help them live better and live longer. Their sense of what it is to be men ultimately deprives them of their vigour. It’s breaking my heart. Men with whom I used to run and swim can barely stand up by themselves or walk to the shops. No legs.
I’m very fortunate. I live in a place where people of my age are well-supported…where we can be active if only we choose to be. Why is it that men as they age become afraid to be active? They are the very counter image of the women I see around me all the time.
Partisan Hack says Wednesday, February 26, 2025 at 12:29 am
I’m now 60 and set a minimum goal of 10km activity on my watch every day. We’re all dying (although I’m hoping to be the exception). But some people seem less keen on putting as much distance between them and the grim reaper as possible.
bc says:
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 at 12:55 am
I’m very glad to hear of your activity, bc. This is encouragement. It will keep you well. I wish more of us would follow your example.
davidwh says
Even if he did, it would likely be very hard to prove. You would really need a smoking gun. Unless other evidence, or a pattern of behaviour, comes out I think this will last at most a few days in the media and then blow over.
Diogenes says Tuesday, February 25, 2025 at 11:08 pm
It doesn’t matter how much. Rene Rivkin went to gaol for just a small amount (50 000 Qantas shares generating a profit of $2,664.94).
So Dutton’s explanation is that he bought these shares when prices were down in full confidence that Labor’s sound economic management would benefit him & others.
The Peter Dutton thing that surprised me was his involvement with ABC Learning, the big child care centre operator who took advantage of John Howards childcare subsidies to make a fortune, while leaving many franchisees with an unviable business.
It seems the Dutton was one of the few lucky ones who did not lost money before ABC learning went bankrupt, and the CEO fled to Singapore.
I only heard about his association with ABC Learning the other day, and I was surprised he got off unscathed.
A quick search just now brought this up:
Dutton denies conflict with ABC Learning interest
Federal Minister Peter Dutton has denied Labor’s claims of a conflict of interest relating to his private childcare centre business.
The Federal Opposition has accused him of profiting personally from policy decisions.
But Mr Dutton to says his commercial lease agreement with ABC Learning Centres is above board and in no way linked to his role as Assistant Treasurer.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-06-17/dutton-denies-conflict-with-abc-learning-interest/71246
And from 2008, Wikipedia:
Despite selling off assets, the company fell into receivership in November 2008 after increasing debt servicing obligations and its auditors were unable to sign off on its accounts.
Perhaps it all came out at the time, and I was just working O/S, or just busy, but I do not remember Peter Dutton’s name being previously linked.
SMH (Just in 4.12am)
[26 properties in 35 years]
[Peter Dutton’s extensive property portfolio revealed]
Mr Dutton seems to have been very active in other activities besides share trading !
New thread.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/02/poll-roundup-outliers-at-thirty-paces.html
Note the observation about Newspoll having 53% saying someone else needs to get a go in fed gov …
I get the logic of the Greens blocking woefully inadequate legislation. The Albanese Government’s ultra-small target strategy on everything infuriates me. The Greens don’t want to be associated with those token measures such as HAFF. However, the political reality is that taking a Tea Party approach of blocking everything you don’t like only works if you are a faction of the party that you are blocking (like the Tea Party in the United States blocking their own party’s Bills) or you are the main alternative to the governing party (like Republicans in the United States blocking all Democratic Bills).
In the first scenario you at least have a chance of taking over your party and making it more reflective of your priorities.
In the second scenario you make the governing party look ineffectual, which helps your electoral prospects at the next election.
The Australian Greens’ relationship to the ALP is in neither of those categories.
It is not taking over the ALP because it is a separate party.
It is not the main alternative governing party to the ALP (the LNP is).
Therefore blocking the ALP’s absurdly small-scale initiatives accomplishes nothing except to make the ALP look ineffectual, which helps the LNP a lot more than it helps the Greens.
I think the Greens are hampered by their name, which implies that they are a single sector party that just focuses on ecological issues. I think the Greens must reinvent themselves in the form of a different name – like the No Corruption Party – and an economic populist message. The right to a job, the right to not be in poverty, the right to secure housing, the right to free education from early childhood onwards, the right to free health care, the right to more leisure time due to productivity gains, to right to a liveable planet.
On macroeconomic policy, the right to a job, and ecological sustainability the party should be advised by Professor Bill Mitchell of the University of Newcastle and Dr Philip Lawn and Dr Steven Hail of Torrens University.
On housing policy and anti-corruption policy they should be advised by Dr Cameron Murray, the author of Rigged: How Networks Of Powerful Mates Rip Off Everyday Australians. His public housing proposal is called HouseMate; it is similar to Singapore’s approach to housing.
Frame ecological destruction as a form of exploitation by powerful networks of corrupt elites. Frame it as one of the many ways in which everyday Australians get ripped off and get robbed of a safe and prosperous future.
Downplay gender ideology. It is not popular. A movement that is harmful to women and children is not worth defending. It also has all the hallmarks of a medical mistreatment scandal. It would be wise for the Greens to disembark from that ship before it sinks. I noticed that the Greens’ website already seems to be downplaying gender ideology, which is good.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AustralianPolitics/comments/1ixnspy/if_you_dont_want_the_greens_to_block_labor_bills/