Things are starting to crank up as the election moves closer into view, such that I can offer a second detail-packed post for the week. On the polling front:
• DemosAU has polling of both federal and state voting intention in Queensland, the former being relatively cheering for Labor, with a 53-47 two-party lead to the Coalition suggesting a 1% swing in their favour since 2022. The primary votes are Labor 31% (27.4% in 2022), Coalition 39% (39.6%), Greens 12% (12.9%) and One Nation 10% (7.5%). The state numbers show little change from the October election on two-party preferred, with the Liberal National Party leading 54-46 (53.8-46.2 at the election), from primary votes of LNP 40% (41.5%), Labor 30% (32.4%), Greens 12% (9.9%) and One Nation 10% (8.0%). The poll was conducted February 10 to 14 from a sample of 1004, with the pollster reporting an effective margin of error of 4.2%.
• A survey by the Australian Population Research Institute leads its principals, Katharine Betts and Bob Birrell, to conclude that voters support neither the “neoliberal agenda”, the “progressive values agenda”, nor a “big Australia”. Evidence for the first includes 67% support for protection of manufacturing “using tariffs if necessary”, with only 15% favouring the wholesale abandonment of tariffs; 47% support for higher taxes on high-income earners and big business, 18% for maintaining current tax rates and 24% for lower taxes across the board; 53% support for “subsidies for energy bills, solar projects and the like”, with 29% wanting them curbed; and 70% support for governments building “a large number of homes, both for rent and for sale”, with only 19% opposed. For the second, 53% disagree that “a woman is anyone who identifies as a woman, regardless of their sex when born”, with 25% agreeing, and 59% agreeing that migration policy should take into account “a migrant’s ability to fit into the Australian community”, with 28% opposed. Eighty per cent would favour lower immigration in some degree, with 11% wanting “the high numbers to continue”. The survey was conducted December 12 to 23 from a sample of 3023.
• Peter Brent at Inside Story has a useful piece on two pollsters tweaking the formulas by which primary votes are converted to two-party preferred, the conventional method of using preference flows from the previous election generally being thought to flatter Labor. YouGov’s polling going forward will apply a result combining “historic flows”, presumably from more than one election, with the respondent-allocated preferences it recorded in its massive sample MRP poll. This credits Labor with 79% of Greens preferences (compared with 85.7% in 2022), 59% of independent preferences (63.8%) and 31% of One Nation’s (35.7%). However, the “others” flow to Labor would appear to be higher now: YouGov says 49%, whereas I calculate the 2022 result at 42%. All we are told of Newspoll is that the 64.3% flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition from 2022 has been increased, guided by Antony Green’s calculation that their share at the October state election in Queensland was 73.8%, compared with a Queensland figure of 66.9% in 2022.
• A new election forecast model by John Collins, based on machine learning models making use of polling, demographic and economic data, is on the bullish side for Labor as these things go, estimating a 27.4% chance it will retain a majority.
Other news that’s been accumulating over the past few weeks:
• Clive Palmer again plans to impose himself on a federal election through a new party modestly called Trumpet of Patriots, a name pointing to an explicitly Trumpian agenda, will full-page advertisements already to be seen in the nation’s newspapers. The party has inhabited the shell of an entity that has in the past contested elections as the Country Alliance and the Federation Party, following the failure of Palmer’s High Court bid to overturn a law that prevented him from re-registering his United Australia Party, which he voluntarily deregistered it after the 2022 election. On Wednesday he announced the party would contest “all lower house teal and Liberal-held seats and potentially many Labor electorates”. Palmer himself will not be a candidate, the party’s mooted leader being Suellen Wrightson, who will contest the seat of Hunter.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports that “Liberals believe they are close but behind in Mackellar and Warringah, but privately concede Allegra Spender is unbeatable in Wentworth”.
• The Financial Review reports that Emma King, senior manager at Orica, is likely to be chosen as Liberal candidate for Shortland ahead of cardiologist and perennial bridesmaid Michael Feneley. The southern Newcastle seat has been historically safe for Labor, but the party’s position has weakened in recent times and its post-redistribution margin is 6.0%. The report notes concern among local Liberals that the party has left the redistribution too late.
• In a report on a Nationals plan to keep Barnaby Joyce confined to his own electorate, Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers notes the party faces a number of “hard contests” against independents, among them “well-known farmer James Gooden”, who is challenging former leader Michael McCormack in Riverina. The party is “bracing for a loss” in Calare, which Andrew Gee hopes to retain as an independent after quitting the party, and Pat Conaghan again faces teal independent Caz Heise in Cowper, who came within 2.3% of a surprise win in 2022.
• Carol Berry, chief executive of a Wollongong disability support non-profit, has been confirmed as Labor’s new candidate in the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, following Stephen Jones’ recent retirement announcement. Berry is a formal national secretary of the Greens who was twice a lower order Senate candidate for the party and, as Ben Raue notes on BlueSky, “came very close to being preselected” to a winning position on the party’s state upper house ticket in 2003. Keely O’Brien, general manager of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers, also nominated, but factional arrangements were widely reported as guaranteeing the seat for Berry’s Left faction rather than O’Brien’s Right.
• Having hitherto kept his cards close to his chest, Russell Broadbent has announced he will seek re-election as an independent in Monash. The 74-year-old Broadbent has served in parliament with a few interruptions since 1990, and quit the Liberal Party in November 2023 after suffering a heavy preselection defeat at the hands of Mary Aldred.
RD
First of all Dutton is always following Labors policies like a sheep. None of his own.Secondly he would hate these policies with a passion. Thirdly most of us know he wouldn’t match them after getting into government anyway. Labor are going to try and wedge him any way possible. I wouldnt be trusting Dutton on that Whyalla steel plant promise either.
Just looking at the poll data tab in bludgertrack for the last election.
It looks like Newspoll came roughly every week during the campaign period.
Given an election hasn’t been called, I’d say the next Newspoll is Sunday 9-Mar.
Enough of the bullying of Irene, who is allowed to express a different point of view to the prevailing pro Albanese Government line on this blog.
This is what turns me off Poll Bludger at times – the toxic nature of the discussions.
Dutton: Coalition will beat Labor’s proposed Medicare spending with $9bn pledge (the Oz)
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has declared he will match the government’s healthcare vow and inject an extra $500m into mental health support as pre-election posturing heats up.
Putting some of his $50 billion back in? Wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him.
I attend a General Practice that is owned by a large national or multinational corporation (I’m not sure which). It’s very busy, modern, well fitted-out and very attentively managed. It’s not a universally bulk billing practice, but I am bulk billed. The quality of attention from all the staff is really very good….very much better than I was accustomed to in a more traditional General Practice. Doubtless this has something to do with preferential access to capital, economies of scale and human resource recruitment and training.
So the standard of care that I have received over the last few years has definitely improved. That said, the more that can be done to strengthen primary medical care the better. I have no trust whatsoever that the Reactionaries are interested in this.
Seconded Democracy Sausage
steve davissays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 2:26 pm
Not expecting any massive jump in polling for Labor. These things don’t happen overnight, but gradually over time, 2 or 3 primary points is all they need. If the punters want a second rate LNP thats up to them.
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Poll movement in Australia is generally almost always gradual. Don’t expect polls to shift against Dutton nearly as quickly as they moved against his lord and mentor, Trump. That said, the fear in the hearts of conservative posters here is now palpable. Just a few weeks ago, many of them were so assured of victory that they let their masks drop. At least one is desperately backtracking to try and restore the green cover they so carelessly discarded in their moment of hubris. Those attempts are futile, as once we have seen what lies behind that curtain , it can’t be unseen.
Quote: “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”
Be interesting where all the extra doctors materialise from.
They are going to let more in to medical school, so quite a lag time to train them, really about 8 years.
One thing people don’t realise how catastrophic COVID was for GPs and their morale and burnout. Lots work less hours now.
If you’re referring to Mundo – yes he seems to have done a major backflip this past week.
I’ve got him down as the 3rd poster on this site to pick an LNP win, and that was around 18-Dec.
Diogenes @ #1157 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 2:52 pm
I’m know a medical school that could take an extra intake of 20 a year if it wasnt capped on CSP.
I would not be surprised if the Medicare announcement to day is just the first in a number of health announcements by labor in coming days and weeks.
Will Dutton just support all of them ? If so, he will be dragged further and further into significant cost outlays that he will not be able to explain how they will be paid for. Will Dutton commit to matching funding announcements in other areas as we progress towards the election ? labor would be happy with the reflex reaction from Dutton today.
Labor will go full term. A budget will be presented next month and will set out clearly all spending and revenue projections over the forwards. Dutton will be left with the conundrum of having to explain how he will pay for all of his anouncements . I wonder if “ all will be revealed after the election “ will cut it ?
Why would labor throw away the huge advantage of incumbency early ?
Cheers and a great afternoon to all.
Doyley
The best way to go. Completely wedge Dutton.
If he gets into power he will hate having to honour those promises.
If I wished to refer to anyone specifically by name, I would have. I was not referring to Mundo, though. I have no idea where Mundo is coming from ideologically. Any post on Mundo’s political ideology by me would be pure speculation. Mundo is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.
Dutton is not afraid of the costs of promises. All he needs to do is defer any action on nuclear power stations and he’ll be rolling in it.
Of course, he’ll need to throw some cash at the coal-fired owners to sustain their stations, but that’s a doddle compared with the cost of nuclear.
I suspect that has already occurred to him.
Dutton was voted, by Australian doctors ,as the worst Minister for Health ever.
Dutton may promise to match the bulk Billing funding before the election but just like Howard and Abbott who both promised “no cuts to health” they broke their promises after the election with Core and non core promises.
Dutton stated when he was Minister for Health, in 2013, that Medicare Was dead unless everyone paid at least $7 a visit.
Dutton has stated he will make $36 Billion in unspecified cuts to expenditure and must find $600 Billion to fund his nuclear reactors!
Mundo is just Mundo.
Dutton is doing a Crisafulli. Not sure it will work for him. Trump is Albanese’s best friend election wise.
Luigi
He will hate them though. How will he start cutting when he is spending on election promises.?
Luigi,
You may be right and he well may be “ rolling in it””.
But two questions will still remain.
“ where is it coming from and what will be cut ? “
Cheers to you.
I would argue that the total number of doctors in Australia is adequate but there are significant maldistributions in specialty and geography and overcoming them has been a problem that has not been resolved over several decades.
Generational change has meant far more doctors are willing to work casually or part-time. For some reason many prefer to work part-time in well resourced areas where gaps are not an issue than work themselves to death in an isolated practice for the rebate.
This is by no means a problem that money alone can fix.
I think the thousand dollars I have bet on Labor at $2,50 over the last couple of weeks is now a moral certainty after today’s big medicare announcement. I was very confident even without that but this is the icing on the cake.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 3:12 pm
Mundo is just Mundo.
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Thanks for putting me right on that. I was starting to think he could be some sort of Schrödinger’s cat that oscillated between the states of “bed wetting” and “concern trolling”.
What was the bet bystander?
For majority or minority, or either.
Mundo is toast I tells ya!
Check the file name if you don’t believe me…
Bystandersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 3:18 pm
I think the thousand dollars I have bet on Labor at $2,50 over the last couple of weeks is now a moral certainty after today’s big medicare announcement. I was very confident even without that but this is the icing on the cake.
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While i don’t want to promote gambling. It will be interesting to see if your bet got peak good odds for yourself. As i certainly expect the odds will begin to tighten soon, if they have not already done so.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 3:17 pm
I would argue that the total number of doctors in Australia is adequate but there are significant maldistributions in specialty and geography and overcoming them has been a problem that has not been resolved over several decades.
Generational change has meant far more doctors are willing to work casually or part-time. For some reason many prefer to work part-time in well resourced areas where gaps are not an issue than work themselves to death in an isolated practice for the rebate.
This is by no means a problem that money alone can fix.’
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An oversupply of GPs would help.
Happy to help Entropy
Nadia
It was for either. I still think it could be touch and go for Labor to win outright, but their chances will be improved enormously now, as will mine.
But BW
Does an oversupply of GPs in a bulk billing environment lead to overservicing?
If I was redesigning the system from scratch I would abandon fee for service and pay GPs by capitation. Allegedly Whitlam considered this for the original medibank but believed that FFS would create less opposition from the profession. Another alternative that existed under Whitlam was including consultations in private health cover, which produced a defacto means test.
OC
Thanks. Interesting.
It isn’t only medical services that are in short supply in regional and remote areas.
Yes Entropy. I am expecting the odds to tighten up too. I will be very surprised if the $2.50 I took is exceeded now. I am still amazed that it was that high in the first place. By my calculations Labor was at worst an even money chance. Now I would put them at odds on.
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/48th-parliament-of-australia-8571604
$2.50 is still available.
It was $2.25 last Sunday from memory.
steve davis says:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 2:29 pm
RD
First of all Dutton is always following Labors policies like a sheep.
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You mean Albanese always consults Dutton before putting a Labor policy to a vote.
So neither will have good social justice policies. Labor is too scared of Liberal Party MPs and media criticism. Easier to ignore poorer adults and children in Australia.
As well as Albanese abandoning any interest in saving habitats, our endangered native animals, birds, and plants.
Mining companies other businesses who donate to Labor must have priority in Labor policy. As well giving them buckets of taxpayer money, or good tax deductions or even freedom not to pay tax. Labor policy.
So the only solution is to vote Albanese and Labor out. They didn’t learn that policies copying the Coalition, harsh polices on low income adults and children, were not wanted by voters in 2013, in the Gillard government.
And they haven’t learnt in this term of Labor government either. Maybe having another 3 terms in Opposition may clarify to Labor MPs what Labor should stand for. The new donations laws will help the Coalition more than Labor. In 2028. And beyond.
One other thing with the health announcement. Many illnesses are caused by eating too much sugar. The health budget could be reduced if a tax on sugar was applied. Many other countries have.
But Labor hasn’t got the courage to put a tax on sugar.
Just like they haven’t got the courage to ban media gambling advertising.
Vested interests, lobbyists in Canberra wouldn’t like it.
Labor are not our representatives.
Sugar and gambling usually affect negatively poorer adults and children more often. What duds Labor MPs are. How can anyone have any respect for them?
And thanks OC.
If Dutton thinks that Labor’s Medicare package is worth matching why didn’t Dutton do it many, many years ago? Like when he was CUTTING health spending?
“Democracy Sausagesays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 2:36 pm
Enough of the bullying of Irene, who is allowed to express a different point of view to the prevailing pro Albanese Government line on this blog.
This is what turns me off Poll Bludger at times – the toxic nature of the discussions.”
Yeah, nah, It’s a political blog FFS
She is insidious and has no right impunity from effectively getting her insidiousness called out.
And an oblivious troll is still a troll.
Bystandersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 3:40 pm
Yes Entropy. I am expecting the odds to tighten up too. I will be very surprised if the $2.50 I took is exceeded now. I am still amazed that it was that high in the first place. By my calculations Labor was at worst an even money chance. Now I would put them at odds on.
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You do know you have now set yourself up as the alternate betting expert to Centre. From now on, when Centre comes on with his election gambling posts, we can all say our betting guru Bystander believes differently. It could be a long three months for you.
Will Albo be abolishing HECS and HELP next ?
A lot of people would like to see the assets test and means test on pension and social security wound back ? Cost of living help from Albo in the budget ?
BW Dutton has to get elected first before he starts cutting health spending.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 3:51 pm
Will Albo be abolishing HECS and HELP next ?
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Patience, young grasshopper, patience. All will be revealed in good time. The budget is not due to March 25th. Many goodies may leak from the bag before then though.
Fess
50% of the under 50s
“Who is the old bloke in the first photo?”
Talking of alternative history:
Mark Latham wins in 2004 and brings in Medicare Gold. He is succeeded by Kevin Rudd in 2013 who brings in Medicare Select.
2025 Australia basks in the praise of all other countries for the most efficient, inclusive and fairest health system in the world.
Adrian Beaumont post on the German election.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/02/23/german-election-live-2/
The how it started…how it’s going thing is very relatable to young people seeing as it’s used on socials by young people to describe progression of just about everything from hairstyles to relationships to the Trump 2.0 experience.
And in any case, you don’t need to know who Hawke is. The post says the most important thing about the image: Labor created Medicare and has fought to protect it every day since.
Seeing as there has been a bit of chat about an “Aussie Trump Movement” recently, this poll from Demos AU may be of interest.
The poll was released 4 days ago (I haven’t been on the site for 4 days so apologies if it’s already been raised by another poster).
https://demosau.com/news/australia-trump-poll/
There is a sub link, which takes you to the divisions where Trump support is supposedly the highest.
The Division of Mitchell (NSW) tops the list.
TPOF @ #1118 Sunday, February 23rd, 2025 – 1:31 pm
This was predictable. And it will no doubt be repeated by both the “bipartisan” parties all the way through the campaign on major policy areas. Some choice! Just like last election, voters will struggle to find a hairs-breadth difference between the major policies of the major parties. Possibly excepting “Nuclear” – but (sadly) this will count in favor of the COALition as much as it counts against them with many Australians – many of whom apparently still believe in Santa Claus, The Tooth Fairy, The Easter Bunny, and Australian Nuclear Submarines.
After three years of doing as little as he could get away with and just letting the RBA run the economy, Albo has apparently realized that simply not being Morrison (last election) or Dutton (this election) is no longer enough, and that he needs some actual policies. Worse, they have to be policies that the COALition won’t shamelessly steal, the same way Labor shamelessly did before the last election. Labor dreamed up this strategy, and now they could become the victims of it. How unfair is that? But the highest hurdle of all, after the Voice fiasco, is that they have to look at least remotely achievable by someone as undistinguished as Albo.
Fortunately, there is a viable third option in the various Teals and Community Independents. They could put a spine in the government.
Your vote is your voice. Don’t be afraid to use it.
Good to see that P1 predicted a $8.5 billion spend by Labor.
https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1893500567550357562?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet&mx=2
Looks like this is the Full Data from the Redbridge poll taken last week of the 20 most marginal seats.
I don’t believe it is a full Australia wide figure, just the 20 seats they’ll be polling leading up to the election.
Does P1 think that a promise to match Labor on Medicare in a ‘cuts cuts cuts’ government, let by Punching Down Dutton would last any longer than Abbott’s suite of promises at the 2013?
No. Me neither. P1, as cynical as Irene.