Three new polls, none of them terribly encouraging for a government no more than four months away from an election:
• Nine Newspapers bring us the first Resolve Strategic poll of the year, which more or less repeats its grim result for Labor from December – with the apparent addition of a two-party preferred measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, which the pollster has traditionally eschewed such a thing. This has the Coalition leading 52-48, where a determination based on 2022 election preference flows would more likely be at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (steady). Peter Dutton is credited with a 39-34 lead as preferred prime minister, which I believe he is the first time he has led by more than one point on this measure from any pollster, compared with 35-35 last time. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have improved, up two on approval to 33% and down two on disapproval to 55%, but Peter Dutton’s have improved more, up four to 44% and down four to 38%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1616.
• The first Essential Research poll for the year has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%, with a steady 5% undecided. The 2PP+ measure, which uses respondent-allocated preferences and does not distribute the undecided, is unchanged at 48% for the Coalition and 47% for Labor. The monthly leadership ratings find Anthony Albanese perking up with a six-point gain on approval to 45% and a five-point drop on disapproval, also to 45%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The “national mood” is better than it’s been since May 2023, with a seven-point increase since last month in the feeling that the country is headed in the right direction, with “wrong track” down five to 46%. The poll also finds 42% feel the standard of living of Indigenous people has improved over the past decade, with 34% saying it has remained the same and 15% that it has got worse. Forty per cent oppose a separate day for Indigenous recognition, with 30% favouring one separate from Australia Day and 19% favouring one in place of Australia Day. Forty-two per cent expressed support for TikTok to be banned unless sold to a non-Chinese company, down three on last March, with 27% opposed, up two. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election preference flow measures, the former out from 51.5-48.5 last week, the latter from 50.5-49.5. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 42% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1564.
The prime minister will likely meet the governor general, nothing to do with the federal election but Australia Day formalities
it was not really in doubt
There will be a federal budget before the federal election in May
Re Pocock, no matter how much he has blocked, he’s still a better bet for Labor than Zed or any other coalition senate candidate.
As a Queenslander, where Labor is likely to (but may not) increase their number of senators from 3 to 4, I think Labor needs to be prepared to negotiate more and cultivate allies in the senate.
The Labor vote is incredibly weak in my state and if the Victorian senate vote goes the same way, negotiations in the next Senate for Labor will be difficult.
In the ACT, Labor aren’t going to elect 2 senators. Pocock or possibly the Greens (!) are their best bet. Labor needs all the friends it can get in the senate and beggars can’t be choosers.
They could of course try raising their primary vote. Not being the shit-lite or actual shit party seems to be a bit of a vote winner these days.
Thank you HoldenHillbilly. 🙂
So Donald Trump thinks he can take over the world just by opening his big, fat mouth? Well, at least the democracies of Canada and the UK, and Denmark by proxy of ‘buying’ Greenland. I don’t think he’s thought it through. He’s only going to make the citizens of those countries more resistant to his demands. As is evidenced already by the poll which says British citizens want closer ties with Europe again.
Also, if I were Denmark I would revoke Trump’s military base rights on Greenland. Plus produce t-shirts and caps for the Danish to wear that said:
TUCK FRUMP! 😀
To which I can only add, do not elect Dutton in Australia!
Too late.
Dutton’s as good as elected now.
Just look at the MSM.
Make the adjustment now.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 7:53 am
………
Also, if I were Denmark I would revoke Trump’s military base rights on Greenland. Plus produce t-shirts and caps for the Danish to wear that said:
TUCK FRUMP!
To which I can only add, do not elect Dutton in Australia!
——————————————
So you would agree Australia, the Albanese Labor government, should revoke Trumps military bases, the $8billion we are spending on the AUKUS nuclear submarine base and radioactive waste dump on Stirling Island, near Rockingham, Perth.
Also revoke the proposed radioactive waste dump at Sempahore, near Adelaide.
As well as revoking the Gillard government’s US marine rotations near Darwin. And revoke the B-52 Bomber and Stealth Strike Fighter base being built now near Tindal Air Base, also near Darwin.
We can see it is only Labor governments that welcome US bases on Australian land. In recent times.
Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison, the most recent LNP governments, did not.
Good idea for the Albanese government to produce T-shirts and caps for Australians to wear that said:
TUCK FRUMP.
To which I can only add, Albanese wants Australia to become the 51st state of the USA. And should offer Australia to Trump as a replacement for Greenland.
AUKUS was eagerly supported by the Labor leadership. Most unlikely Labor caucus or Labor members do. Yet it wasn’t mentioned as a Labor policy at the May 2022 election.
A big mistake. But Trump will love us. More AUD to the USA.
Who is less patriotic – Albanese or Dutton? Easy answer. Hence Albanese should not be given a second term.
Mundo is correct. Australians have observed an Albanese Labor government and don’t like it. A failure on the many changes voters were looking for.
Copying most Howard, Turnbull and Morrison polices is not what voters wanted.
Governments lose elections, not Oppositions win them.
Would you be celebrating if 11 overfull ships carrying illegal, unauthorised boat-people arrived seeking a new life in Australia today?
Coalition frontbench reshuffle unveiled ahead of election – Noah Yim (The Australian $); Dutton unveiled his new shadow ministry yesterday, brining Sukkar and Paterson in to leadership groups, and the creation of a raft of new portfolios, including ironically Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s new Musk style DOGE knock off.
Gillian Triggs awarded a Companion of the Order of Australia for human rights work – Joanna Panagopoulos (The Australian $); Former AHRC Trigs has been awarded a Companion of the Order of Australia in recognition of her services in human right, social justice, IR and tertiary education & research. The Australian reminiscences on how controversial Triggs’ time as commissioner was, ignoring that they were…. Solely responsible for fomenting that controversy.
What one activist court can do, another can undo – Janet Albrechtsen (The Australian $); Albrechtsen seriously needs an editor – this is utter waffle and terribly written. The author is ignorant of our legal system, advocating that judges need to only ever follow the black and white letter of the law, ignoring that this necessitates interpretation. Goes on to detail how decisions that are deemed by her as progressive are activist but ignores any instances of the opposite and refuses to countenance that that too may be activism – or that maybe judges sometimes can form decisions that she disagrees with based on the evidence etc before them.
Musk praises ‘German values’ at far-right rally – Emma-Victoria Farr (AFR $); Musk appeared via video link to speak at the far right extremist AfD rally in Germany to praise German values and denounce what he calls past guilt. The AFR continues the trend whereby the only people not willing to identify Musk’s Nazi salute as such remains the Australian media and politicians (historians, Nazis, and Jewish groups all agree it was).
Meet the McKinsey analyst turned teal powerbroker – Tom McIlroy (AFR $); The AFRs Canberra bureau chief met up with independent MP Allegra Spender to discuss housing, antisemitism, and campaigning.
Hamas frees four Israeli hostages in second swap – Maayan Lubell et al (AFR $); Hamas in Gaza have released four hostages as part of the second prisoner swap since the 19 Jan ceasefire began – however one prisoner who was expected to be released was not, due to an apparent technical error which Israel has claimed is a breach of the truce.
On Today
Melbourne
• Share the Spirit Treasury Gardens – Share the Spirit, presented by Songlines Aboriginal Music, returns for another year as the state’s largest and longest running Indigenous festival.
Onkaparinga
• Australia Day Family Fair South Adelaide Football Club – A free family day out with food, markets, entertainment, activities and fireworks.
Brisbane
• 2025 Australia Day Play – The Eulogy & Training Wheels (Matinee Performances) Redland Museum – Theatre Redlands will present a double-header as the 2025 Australia Day presentation at Redland Museum, both distinctly Queensland but vastly different in style and content, and each directed by a Theatre Redlands co-founder.
Parramatta
• Australia Day – Balloon Breakfast Parramatta Park – Bring your friends and family to Parramatta Park on Australia Day to see the hot air balloons soaring while enjoying live music and entertainment, activities for the whole family plus yummy barbeque breakfast food.
Perth
• Australia Day Celebration Dance for people with a disability South Perth Community Hall – Para and Ability Dance WA, in partnership with the National Australia Day Council, invite you to a FREE, accessible, and inclusive Australia Day Celebration Dance.
Matcha Overnight Oats – Ifrah F. Ahmed (NYT Cooking $);
Oats and a matcha latte make a wonderful breakfast pairing, but this recipe goes one step further to combine them into matcha overnight oats, an effortless breakfast that will delight lovers of efficiency and morning matcha.
Which former Prime Minister described Vietnamese Boat People as “Asian Balts”?
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 8:18 am
[Which former Prime Minister described Vietnamese Boat People as “Asian Balts”?]
Good onya Dick Von Trier!
”Which former Prime Minister described Vietnamese Boat People as “Asian Balts”?”
That was Gough Whitlam nearly 50 years ago, in private but it somehow got into the public domain. The Coalition were more sympathetic, a cynic might say possibly for the same reason.
Hi Brett,
Per the Senate.
* The Labor vote in QLD seems to be sufficient to get them 2 quota’s, so I’d say Labor is on track to pick up a Senator (given only 1 was elected in 2019).
To me, QLD is looking like 3 LNP, 2 ALP & 1 Grn. ie: Malcolm Roberts loses his seat.
* ACT – Bit of discussion last night and mid week. General consensus on this site is 1 ALP, 1 Pocock
* NT – 1 CLP, 1 ALP
* VIC – Polling is looking glum down there for the ALP. Bludgertrack has the Vic primary sitting at 29%. The senate vote for the ALP is often lower than in the Lower House, meaning the ALP is barely on 2 quota’s. On current read, it looks like 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN. This is the same outcome from 2019, so no major change.
* WA – looks on track to repeat the 2022 result. ie: 3 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN. This will mean an additional ALP Senator.
* SA – The recent Black by-election delivered a massive flogging to the Libs, so to me that would be the best indication of recent sentiment in SA. The figures on bludgertrack however, are less flattering.
At the moment it looks like 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN & 1 PHON.
Really can’t see a PHON candidate getting up there. The Greens are a tick under quota, so most likely their distribution will get a 3rd ALP Senator up.
Anyway, my thoughts. I went a bit off track, as you only mentioned QLD & VIC.
Morning all. Banquo thanks for wading through the detritus in The Australian for this morning’s roundup.
Brett (from last night)
“ Re Pocock, no matter how much he has blocked, he’s still a better bet for Labor than Zed or any other coalition senate candidate.”
I agree. Unless Labor thinks it can get two Senators in ACT (almost impossible) or that Pocock might cost Gallagher her spot (highly unlikely) Pocock does Labor a favour by winning his seat in the Senate.
Its worth it just to see the ACT Liberals have to spend lots of resources campaigning against him, giving Gallagher a clearer path. Not to mention preference flows.
Mundo @ #1354 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 8:08 am
Will you go away if Labor win? Or just continue this nonsense for another 3 years?
All the Strayan s at their dumbarse Straya day barbies with dumbarse little flags from the Woolworth turning up in droves in a couple of months to make Dutton Prime minister.
Dumbarses.
Happy Straya Day..
Socrates @ #1362 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 8:48 am
The Liberals in the ACT seem to be a very zealous lot. Which blinds them, it seems, to the big mistakes they make as well. Like their last campaign against David Pocock where they plastered stickers all over his signs stating that he was a Green. I mean, how puerile can you get? People just went, no he’s not and elected him.
Same with the Liberals latest candidate. They are so zealously trying to corner the market in the Indian-Australian vote in the ACT that they completely overlooked the guy’s branch stacking. Fools.
Mundo @ #1365 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 8:51 am
What utter rot! I was at a dawn reflection ceremony this morning to recognise the resilience of First Nations Australians, and there were plenty of people there wearing Voice ‘vote YES’ t-shirts, waving the Aboriginal flag and wearing Close the Gap and Treaty shirts. Not only are they participating in Australia Day, they definitely are not voting for Dutton.
That’s a relief Confessions.
Here I was thinking things were looking a bit iffy for the Voice referendum.
But I see now everything’s fine.
Oh wait….
Thanks, banquo911.
I’ve been eating overnight oats for decades. Except we used to soak them in apple juice. Cold Pressed, of course. 🙂
Cat
The SA Liberals are now no better. I know Labor faces a battle in NSW and Vic, but things are not the same elsewhere. I think Labor could pick up a Senator in SA, and possibly a seat (Sturt).
Confessions @ #1366 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 8:54 am
Mundo is a Concern Troll.
Did you see that Megan Davis got the Companion of the Order of Australia? She’s such an amazing woman. 🙂
Socrates @ #1369 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 8:58 am
They honestly believe that Australian voters will fall for the tommy rot and nonsense that Trump et al brainwashed the Americans with.
Gillian Triggs awarded a Companion of the Order of Australia for human rights work – Joanna Panagopoulos (The Australian $); Former AHRC Trigs has been awarded a Companion of the Order of Australia in recognition of her services in human right, social justice, IR and tertiary education & research. The Australian reminiscences on how controversial Triggs’ time as commissioner was, ignoring that they were…. Solely responsible for fomenting that controversy.
Good one. I am pleased to see this.
Yet another women abused by the LNP and Murdoch
Mundo @ #1368 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 8:58 am
Way to miss the point. Your sweeping generalisation of Australians as dumbasses for attending Australia Day events makes you look like a dumbass yourself.
Albo on SkyNews this morning all but confirmed the 25 March Budget is going ahead.
Predictions by some of an April 12 election in the dustbin of wishcasting…
Cat
“ They honestly believe that Australian voters will fall for the tommy rot and nonsense that Trump et al brainwashed the Americans with.”
————————————————————-
We should not kid ourselves it could not happen here. Australian voters fell for Morrison’s “EVs spoil your weekend” nonsense in 2019.
But while I have been critical of what I consider Labor’s political errors (AUKUS, too weak NACC, the Voice), Labor in office has a good governance story to sell.
In 2022 Labor inherited a budgetary basket case from Morrison. The Liberals had tripled our debt since Gillard left. The budget was hopelessly in deficit, despite no progress for a decade on issues like housing, education, defence and climate change. The situation was made worse by the Ukraine War and the worldwide spike in inflation. The RBA didn’t help.
Labor has done a lot of hard work repairing the budget, still delivered a tax cut, and done what it could for cost of living relief. Interest rates have been painful but they are not Labor’s fault. The cost of living is still a huge problem, as is housing affordability for the young. Labor needs to keep speaking to those problems.
Whereas Peter Dutton has no solution to any of these problems. How will nuclear power fix housing affordability? Will racist demonising of immigrants pay for AUKUS? No. All his policies are about dividing people. None of them are solutions.
Happy Australia Day. We are off to the market.
In answer to your long-winded diatribe and question, Irene, no I would not agree to that proposition for Australia. Donald Trump isn’t proposing to buy Tasmania. At least not yet. 😐
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 9:26 am
In answer to your long-winded diatribe and question, Irene, no I would not agree to that proposition for Australia. Donald Trump isn’t proposing to buy Tasmania. At least not yet.
_____________________________
Doesn’t he just grab it?
sprocket_ @ #1374 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:08 am
You get a lot of it around here. And when it’s obvious it was wRONg wishcasting, they just move the goalposts.
Happy Australia Day to those who like to celebrate it and commiserations to those who find it upsetting. For those like me who don’t hold any strong views about it one way or the other, have a nice day.
I think you are thinking of a map of Tasmania
Following the vacation of my curation of the Dawn Patrol, the variety and depth of news pickings has improved markedly. Good work from all concerned!
Alpha Zero @ #1377 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:28 am
Agreed. It looks like one, doesn’t it? 😉
There will only ever be one BK. 🙂
You’re thinking of pussies.
ANU’s sun king heads Canberra’s Australia Day Honours List
https://the-riotact.com/anus-sun-king-heads-canberras-australia-day-honours-list/841249
Confessions @ #1384 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:35 am
Yes he was. 😉
Haven’t you ever heard a woman’s ‘area’ described as a ‘map of Tasmania’? Though these days they are mostly deforested. 😉
”
Alpha Zerosays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 8:14 am
Would you be celebrating if 11 overfull ships carrying illegal, unauthorised boat-people arrived seeking a new life in Australia today?
”
Nah! Straight to Nauru. It doesn’t which party is in power.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 8:18 am
Which former Prime Minister described Vietnamese Boat People as “Asian Balts”?
”
Whitlam?
Errr. No.
Wondering if Dutton will ape Trump’s filleting of the public service?
First week Executive Orders being studied I suspect by Jacinta Price, Minster for A-DOGE…
An Education Department employee was attending a funeral this week when she got the call: She was being placed on administrative leave because she works on projects that connect Black students, among others, to federal government programs.
A disabled veteran employed at the Department of Veterans Affairs grew emotional when he heard about the rescinding of telework options, unsure whether it would mean the end of his job taking care of fellow soldiers.
A Federal Trade Commission employee was so anxious that he told family members not to talk about politics on unencrypted lines. Across government agencies, workers eyed one another nervously, wondering whether a colleague would report them, accusing them of resisting the new administration’s move to end certain programs.
President Trump’s rapid push to overhaul the federal bureaucracy in his first days in office has been met with a mix of fear, fury and confusion throughout the work force.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/25/us/politics/trump-federal-workers.html
I have been watching the Australia Day presentation in the ACT. I thought it was so very well done. From the host (ABC weatherman) not wearing a tie. All casual and formal at the same time. Loved the raising of the Flag(s) with the three flags raised simultaneously, with the Aborigine Flag in the middle. I enjoyed the ceremony and the respect shown to the First Nations people of Australia.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 9:39 am
Confessions @ #1384 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:35 am
Doesn’t he just grab it?
You’re thinking of pussies.
Yes he was.
Haven’t you ever heard a woman’s ‘area’ described as a ‘map of Tasmania’? Though these days they are mostly deforested.
____________________
Or the Highway from Hobart to Launceston is left in place…
C@tmomma @ #1383 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:34 am
Hear, hear!
Confessions @ #1389 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 8:42 am
Prepare yourself for an education fr Amanda effing Palmer
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3B8omCWBl8s
Alpha zero
Nah, he just grabs pussys
I see Mundo has been gracing us this morning with his rank pessimism over the coming election. I’m not quite as gung ho about it as Scott but I don’t see how Labor can lose. They’ll likely give up a few seats and be reduced to minority government, based on present polling, but lose outright. No. I can’t see it happening.
You have to say these people are mentally defective:
Transport Minister Jo Haylen has branded as disgraceful and cowardly the targeting of her electorate office with graffiti including the word “antisemite”.
In what Haylen said was the fourth incident of its kind at her office in Sydney’s inner west, the word was sprayed across the front window under the Summer Hill MP’s name.
“Honour your oath, separate church and state,” was also scrawled on a window of the Marrickville Road premises.
According to NSW Police, the vandalism took place about 1pm on Saturday. Officers are investigating.
“Yesterday, my electorate office was subjected to a disgraceful and cowardly attack of vandalism,” Haylen said in a statement.
“This is the fourth time my office has been subjected to this kind of criminal attack.
The images were posted to social media page Inner West Council Watch.
“These kind of criminal acts are designed to intimidate and divide our successful multicultural communities. I will not be intimidated by them, and nor will the rest of our inner west community.”
Haylen said she had total confidence police would track down those responsible and “subject them to the full force of the law”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/minister-s-sydney-office-vandalised-in-cowardly-attack-20250126-p5l78s.html
So now we have radical Jews doing these copycat attacks? Also, if they want to keep church and state separate, why are they so hot under the collar about calling an MP an Anti Semite? Should they not be bringing religion into politics themselves? Calling an MP an Anti Semite certainly is.
But then they aren’t that intelligent I guess.
‘And so it begins’: Onlookers pounce as Trump reportedly ‘kicks Elon out’ of the West Wing
The British newspaper the Sunday Times recently reported that President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, “has denied the billionaire touted as ‘the real vice-president’ a permanent office in the heart of the White House.”
“The ‘ice maiden’ at the heart of the Trump administration has won her first big battle this week — denying Elon Musk a permanent base in the West Wing of the White House.
British columnist Dan Hodges simply said, “And so it begins…”
Artist Art Candee said, “Donald Trump’s Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, has refused to give Elon Musk an office in the West Wing, sticking DOGE in the Eisenhower building, which is across the road from the White House.”
Obviously Confessions I was generalizing.
There’s a lot of on here.
Anyway, see how charitable you feel towards SOME Strayans when they lumber the country with another coalition government in a couple of months or so.