Three new polls, none of them terribly encouraging for a government no more than four months away from an election:
• Nine Newspapers bring us the first Resolve Strategic poll of the year, which more or less repeats its grim result for Labor from December – with the apparent addition of a two-party preferred measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, which the pollster has traditionally eschewed such a thing. This has the Coalition leading 52-48, where a determination based on 2022 election preference flows would more likely be at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (steady). Peter Dutton is credited with a 39-34 lead as preferred prime minister, which I believe he is the first time he has led by more than one point on this measure from any pollster, compared with 35-35 last time. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have improved, up two on approval to 33% and down two on disapproval to 55%, but Peter Dutton’s have improved more, up four to 44% and down four to 38%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1616.
• The first Essential Research poll for the year has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%, with a steady 5% undecided. The 2PP+ measure, which uses respondent-allocated preferences and does not distribute the undecided, is unchanged at 48% for the Coalition and 47% for Labor. The monthly leadership ratings find Anthony Albanese perking up with a six-point gain on approval to 45% and a five-point drop on disapproval, also to 45%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The “national mood” is better than it’s been since May 2023, with a seven-point increase since last month in the feeling that the country is headed in the right direction, with “wrong track” down five to 46%. The poll also finds 42% feel the standard of living of Indigenous people has improved over the past decade, with 34% saying it has remained the same and 15% that it has got worse. Forty per cent oppose a separate day for Indigenous recognition, with 30% favouring one separate from Australia Day and 19% favouring one in place of Australia Day. Forty-two per cent expressed support for TikTok to be banned unless sold to a non-Chinese company, down three on last March, with 27% opposed, up two. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election preference flow measures, the former out from 51.5-48.5 last week, the latter from 50.5-49.5. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 42% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1564.
So I had thought for the last few months things were settling at about 50-51:49-50. But seems maybe things are continuing to slide for the ALP. The NSW and Victorian numbers are enough to potentially see the Coalition win outright. And if the ALP does actually record a 25% primary in Victoria on election day, it’s going to be very hard for the Victorian independents/Teals to back an ALP minority government, no matter what their personal preferences might be.
It does feel like some of the pollsters might be trying to nudge their polling rightward.
Whoa, just going through the details of the Resolve data on “issues”, the Coalition is ahead on both education and health! I hadn’t looked at that data in the last Resolve poll, it may have been there then, but I have never, ever seen that in any polling in Australia. If the ALP really is behind on education and health, then the government is cactus. It’s that simple.
This deserves repeating from the previous thread:
Andrew_Earlwood (AnonBlock)
Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 10:55 pm
Comment #1627
paulA,
“ Quentin, see how the Labor loons think.
High Street thinks the “Resolve” poll was somehow rigged between Dec and now(he didn’t), and of course we have Earlwood drop by to speculate that the “rigging” actually occurred around the middle of last year. Of course, the real issue is the 27% national primary for “their ALP”, and lets not forget the 25% primary in Victoria.
But it’s all rigged, apparently.”
____
your brain is broke. Unless I have my basic facts wrong – and please, do fact check me – Resolve DID change their methodology and after a hiatus swung from being excessively positive to labor – to consistently being below the pack thereafter. It seems that each polling house has their own methodology and in the case of Resolve a new one. i would not call any of this ‘rigged’, but there are clearly some sort of house effects at play. We don’t really know who has ‘got it right’ at the moment, and all we can do is post facto rationalise this once the election day ‘now cast’ is taken. In the meantime ‘the trend is your fried’ and it seems that resolve isn’t showing much movement overall in the past couple of months, however the state breakdowns appear to be jumping about somewhat.
Whether the poor Resolve labor primary in Victoria actually lead to a LNP seat haul at the next election will depend very much on how accurate the ‘house effects’ of Resolve polling methodology are, and even if they are pretty accurate, whether or not that is enough to steamroll labor held seats that currently are outside the 54-46 range. With a LNP Victorian statewide primary of below 40 and the Greens polling in the mid teens that does not appear very likely. I’d suggest slim pickings for the LNP at best.
In NSW there are more seats within that 54-46 margin, but I think the LNP will struggle to overcome the sophomore effect in seats where the local Labor MP has a high profile and is well regarded. I doubt the LNP will sweep all or even most of Bennelong, Hunter, Robertson or Reid. I doubt there will be any gains in the outer burbs for them either. Their best chances seem confined to Patterson and Gilmore.
Queensland seems shaping up for a status quo result, except i think Labor will grab Brisbane off the Greens, and perhaps pick up either Leichhardt and Longman off the LNP.
Outside the ‘big three’ states, the state wide breakdown to ‘rest of Australia’ is a bit of a horror story for the LNP. So slim pickings there it seems.
This is perhaps the LNP’s best polling house & yet it’s hard to see the LNP winning on the back of Resolve’s polling. Sorry sport but no cigar.
Federal Liberal party candidates will not gain too many labor seats with primary votes less than 43%, the liberal party have weak 2pp flow, even in liberal party held seats the liberal party candidate is not safe with a primary vote of 42%.
Federal Lib/nats are still short by 5/6%
in Victoria
if the liberal party candidate primary vote did get 38% in a non federal lib/nats held seat, the 2nd or 3 place candidate with a primary vote of 25% will likely win that seat on 2pp
Thank God for Scott.
Nothing to see here, Labor is heading for an increased majority.
The reality is teal led minority govt, which will be great for the country.
Shaun Carney tells it like it is in the SMH/Age
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-now-realises-he-s-on-a-rescue-mission-to-save-the-sinking-ship-20250122-p5l6d1.html
https://i.imgur.com/aCjo4QZ.jpeg
In firm grip of a new world order, Penny Wong races to make friends, influence people – Joe Kelly (The Australian $);
When given the options of fight or flight, the ALP has chosen fawn, with Wong meeting newly minted Secretary of State Marco Rubio, seeking to strengthen economic ties to the convicted criminal, fascist supporting government, and to reaffirm our frog in the boiler commitment to AUKUS. Joe Kelly approves.
Labor left state ‘worst deficits in its history’ – Lydia Lynch (The Australian $);
In news that will surprise nobody, the QLD LNP has now had the chance to review the books left by the outgoing Miles Labor government and claims they’re in much worse shape than they expected. A story told by coalition governments as old as time, this will presumably lead to Chrisafulli walking away from his election commitments.
Double trouble: Gold Coast City Council lowers the flag after two-sided treatment sparks outrage – Mackenzie Scott (The Australian $);
Residents and councillors in one of Australia’s most conservative, wealthy, racist city’s – The Gold Coast had a hissy fit for deigning to include aboriginal flags in their citizenship ceremonies. In a win for bigotry, the flags have been scrapped.
ASX diversity rules in limbo amid Trump DEI backlash – Patrick Durkin et al (AFR $);
Whelp, it took all of 5 minutes, but the conservative media in Australia has really latched on to the American obsession with DEI – in a seeming non-story where the ASX CORPGOV Chair has been consulting with execs etc side floating new rules which are in no way shelved or in limbo.
Trump may retaliate against Labor’s tech levy by doubling expat taxes – Michael Read (AFR $);
Labor’s new news media bargaining incentive may draw the ire of the Trump administration who is promising to double the taxes paid by expats of countries with discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes against America.
Qantas pips Virgin on on-time flights in otherwise lacklustre year – Ayesha de Kretser (AFR $);
While ticket prices remain sky high, the on time running of flights by our two major airlines remains at all time lows with flight centre chief warning customers not to expect things to improve any time soon.
Donald Trump is the first pump-and-dump president – Cam Wilson (Crikey $);
Cam examines the art of the grift in the launch of the $TRUMP memecoin, and how its namesake is literally banking on his supporters losing out.
Trump’s shadow and the collapse of the progress myth – Carla Wilshire (Crikey $);
A genuinely gratifying read, Carla discusses the failure of transactional justice, and argues that justice must be the ends in and of itself.
Elon Musk might be antisemitic, but he’s OUR antisemite, so hands off! – Bernard Keane (Crikey $);
BK, never one to mince words brings the receipts of Musk’s history of antisemitism, and reviews the abject failure of the medias response to his Nazi salute.
Brown Butter Bucatini With Charred Cabbage – Ham El-Waylly (NYT Cooking $);

Charred cabbage brings a complex combination of flavors, from savory to bitter to sweet, to this simple but satisfying weeknight pasta. As it cooks, the cabbage also turns silky, clinging to the bucatini like the most delicious of frills. The pecans play off the natural nutty notes of the charred cabbage and brown butter. Like cacio e pepe or other pastas that fuse melted cheese with pasta water, this dish tightens up quickly, so make sure to have plenty of pasta water on hand to loosen it as needed.
Morning all. William thanks for the polling roundup. Taken together they are bad for Labor.
After past election result embarrassment for pollsters and work to improve accuracy I do not believe that there are credible grounds to dismiss them. One bad poll can be bad luck. Three similar bad polls is bad news.
I still think Dutton will not win a majority but Albo can forget majority government on these numbers. There should be no early election either.
I don’t understand why Labor would not do this. Dutton’s policies are nothing but lies (e.g nuclear power) and a rule against disinformation is urgently needed given past Newscorp behaviour and current social media practices.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/23/crossbenchers-david-pocock-kate-chaney-deepfakes-urge-labor-to-act-misinformation-deepfakes-aec-warning
Socrates @ #9 Thursday, January 23rd, 2025 – 6:25 am
I definitely don’t think the polls should be dismissed, but am also wary of ruling out a coalition govt at this point also – does the coalition not usually out perform opinion polls come election day?
Good morning all. Thank you, Banquo.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/22/israeli-forces-surround-palestinian-hospital-refugee-camp-west-bank
======================
In the usual run of things a ceasefire agreement has careful wording around locations and troop movements. The reason is that movement could trigger firefights. Is this yet another signal that Netanyahu intends to resume kinetic warfare?
Is there any basis for saying an election called now is an “early election”?
It’s more that anything after the budget is going to be drowned out with calls for a poll/ perception of hanging on etc etc
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 6:44 am
The reality is teal led minority govt, which will be great for the country.
—————————————-
That is not reality , the teals are mainly going after federal lib/nats seats , why on current polling it will be hard for the federal lib/nats to do better than the 58 seats at the 2022 federal election, and struggle to get over 55 seats
Soc
I doubt whether misinformation laws would actually obstruct the Coalition’s case. All opinon is based on assumptions of one sort or another and the Coalition’s nuclear case is a logical edifice based on false assumptions. In this case the assumptions are contested.
Banquo 7:53am
Yes a Dutton government is a real risk at this point. I take comfort that the teal seats look hard to shift back to LNP, but the mood is not good.
Thanks for your roundup, which I like. I also read Crikey.
The story about Trump using differential tax treatment as well as tariffs to protect USA is a real risk for Australia’s economy too.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 7:35 am
[Is there any basis for saying an election called now is an “early election”?]
[It’s more that anything after the budget is going to be drowned out with calls for a poll/ perception of hanging on etc etc]
It’s seems the “desperate snarker” has turned up this morning!
Even if there was minority government , Labor would still likely to have a reasonable size gap in the number of house of reps seats between them and lib/nats , for it to change that much if there was a labor majority
Not sure if this was posted in the past…wonder if this could be one of the reasons for Dutton’s rise in popularity.
‘The Liberal Party has hired controversial digital agency Topham Guerin to produce content for its election campaign, despite concerns about disinformation and deepfakes used by the group. By Jason Koutsoukis. ‘
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/12/07/exclusive-dutton-hires-morrisons-disinformation-team
Basically Scott, I think Carney is saying Albo has about 4 months to turn it around. Given at least one of those is the election campaign – he has about 10 weeks.
As John Howard used to say you can’t fatten the pig on market day.
Maybe a late burst of energy does the trick, or interest rates turn out to be a circuit breaker – but peeps opinions seem pretty set.
World News & Politics:
President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened to impose “high levels” of sanctions on Russia and tariffs on imports from there if the country did not reach a settlement to end its nearly three-year-old war against Ukraine. Trump’s warning, made in a social media post on his third day as president, called out Russian President Vladimir Putin by name. “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries,” Trump wrote on Truth Social: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/22/trump-threatens-russia-with-sanctions-tariffs-if-putin-doesnt-end-ukraine-war.html
‘Mr. Trump, f— off’: Danish politician lashes out over Greenland proposal: https://globalnews.ca/news/10971681/greenland-donald-trump-f-off-danish-anders-vistisen/
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports because fentanyl is being sent from China to the U.S. via Mexico and Canada. Trump voiced his latest tariff threats in remarks to reporters at the White House a day after taking office without immediately imposing tariffs as he had promised during his campaign. Financial markets and trade groups exhaled briefly on Tuesday, but his latest comments underscored Trump’s longstanding desire for broader duties and a new Feb. 1 deadline for 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, as well as duties on China and the EU: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-is-discussing-10-tariff-china-feb-1-2025-01-21/
Syria’s new authorities have denied imposing a ban on all goods produced in Russia, Iran and Israel from entering the country, amid continued lack of relations between those states and the new Syrian leadership. According to reports by news outlets circulating online, an account in the name of the Syrian Land and Sea Ports Authority stated on Telegram that the Ministry of Finance ruled that “the entry of goods originating in Iran, Israel and Russia into Syrian territory is prohibited”, with authorities mandating their confiscation at all land and sea border crossings in the country: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250120-new-syria-government-denies-banning-goods-from-israel-iran-russia/
The five signs China is preparing to invade Taiwan – As Beijing’s warships surround the island, many fear that Xi Jinping will enact his ‘political destiny’ sooner rather than later: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/01/22/five-signs-china-invasion-taiwan/
Mexican president says the world will still call the gulf the Gulf of Mexico: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/mexican-president-gulf-of-america-trump/3747004/
President Donald Trump’s inauguration numbers are in, and the notoriously ratings-obsessed president isn’t going to be happy. Early figures suggest that Monday’s proceedings, which were moved indoors due to frigid weather, took a hefty dive—more than a third, according to Nielsen figures—in comparison to Joe Biden’s 2021 inauguration. Nielsen found that ratings across ABC, CBS and NBC’s coverage of Trump’s swearing-in as 47th president on Monday hovered around 26.05 million viewers on average from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m (ET), reported The Hollywood Reporter. According to Nielsen’s ratings, viewership for the two previous inaugurations—which includes Trump’s first term—fared much better. About 32 percent, to be exact: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-is-not-going-to-be-happy-about-inauguration-ratings/
On Tuesday, NBC broke the story of sworn testimony from the ex-sister-in-law of Pete Hegseth, President Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of defense. In an affidavit, which was released for senators to review ahead Hegseth’s confirmation hearing this week, Danielle Hegseth alleged that Hegseth’s former wife Samantha Hegseth had often feared for her safety. Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) said in a press release that the affidavit alleged that Samantha Hegseth “had an ‘escape plan’ that involved texting a ‘safe word’ to friends and family to urgently request assistance without putting herself in more danger with Mr. Hegseth.” Buried toward the end of Reed’s press release was another eye-opening detail: Pete Hegseth allegedly believed that “women should not vote or work and that Christians needed to have more children so they could overtake the Muslim population.”: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/01/hegseths-former-sister-in-law-says-he-believed-women-shouldnt-vote/
One of the ten Iowans who was pardoned by President Trump this week for actions during the January 6th, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol says he plans to join a massive lawsuit in response to his arrest.
Kenny Rader of Sioux City says it will be a $50-billion class-action case against the U.S. Department of Justice. “I’m not gonna settle for anything under seven digits,” Rader says. “I want to be compensated because I went through some hell.”: https://www.radioiowa.com/2025/01/22/after-trump-pardon-iowan-plans-to-join-50b-suit-following-january-6th-attacks/
One of the people who served jail time for taking part in the US Capitol riot four years ago has refused a pardon from President Donald Trump, saying: “We were wrong that day.” Pamela Hemphill, who pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 60 days in prison, told the BBC that there should be no pardons for the riot on 6 January 2021: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvged988377o
President Donald Trump is granting temporary, six-month security clearances to incoming White House officials who have not completed the vetting process typically required before being allowed to access highly-classified information, blaming a backlog of background checks that he helped cause: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/21/politics/trump-temporary-security-clearances/index.html
Amid a deluge of executive actions, the Trump administration has directed federal health agencies to pause external communications, such as regular scientific reports, updates to websites and health advisories, according to sources within the agencies. The initial orders were delivered Tuesday to staff at agencies inside the US Department of Health and Human Services, including to officials at the US Food and Drug Administration, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institutes of Health, according to the Washington Post, which first reported the story: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/21/health/hhs-cdc-fda-trump-pause-communication/index.html
Carney
The true believers, mostly drawn from the middle class, are at this point reaching the blame-the-media stage.
_____________________
They have been at that stage for a while now.
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 7:47 am
Basically Scott, I think Carney is saying Albo has about 4 months to turn it around. Given at least one of those is the election campaign – he has about 10 weeks.
————————-
Those in the media are not good in reading the public mood , as the 2022 federal election campaign day 1 set up question by the lib/nats propaganda media showed
The media thought they had Albanese/Labor done
Taylormade says:
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 7:51 am
Carney
The true believers, mostly drawn from the middle class, are at this point reaching the blame-the-media stage.
_____________________
They have been at that stage for a while now.
—————————————–
Yes Dutton and the federal lib /nats propaganda media units, have been blaming the so-called non lib/nats friendly media for a while
Harry Sussex didn’t cower to Murdoch, he stood up to him, like Daniel Andrews, and defeated him in battle.
A lesson for Albo on leadership.
115 days until May 17 (last possible election date)
It’s getting close to shredder time.
Libs have a new letter drop attacking Alex Dyson, Teal in Wannon, quoting his five-year-old opinion expressed on reddit about Australia day.
Only tying to associate him with the Greens this time, last time they tried to tie him to the Greens and Labor
The 17th May was always the preferred election Saturday.
The banks have indicated the direction of interest rates.
The decisions to rectify the hopelessly disingenuous Morrison government tenure have been acknowledged as positive.
Inflation control, employment stability, strong trade alliances, fiscal responsibility and strong monetary policy will be rewarded by the voters.
The gormless media oligarchs have had only minor success at great expense to their reputation and bottom line.
Polling seems to have not attempted to again identify the schism between the “Teals” and the leftovers right wing of the LNP.
Dutton has identified himself as ill suited to 21st C leadership, unable to grasp the fundamentals of technological change and refusing to acknowledge the immediacy of climate change.
The Albanese Labor government has performed strongly, capable, honestly and realistically.
Australia will benefit from a new term of government in 2025, with positive contributions from Labor, the Greens and the “teals”.
It will be unsurprising to see an increased representation from “the Teals” cohort.
The Australian voters have not engaged yet!
#weatheronPB
It’s almost still cool.
But longing for it won’t ease,
the stifling embrace.
Exactly.
“Caitlin Johnstone@caitoz
If you’ve been ignoring or defending Biden’s genocidal criminality these last 15 months, then I don’t really care what you have to say about Trump or Musk or any of their cohorts. Your criticisms might be 100% accurate, but they’re not coming from a place of truth.
If you moved seamlessly from aggressively attacking Biden’s abuses to aggressively attacking Trump’s, then you have my attention, because I know your criticisms are coming from actual principles and not blind opposition to an opposing political faction. You are standing against tyranny instead of standing with one of America’s two tyrannical parties.”
The gratuitous self-praise, incoherence, and conspiratorial partisan bashing notwithstanding, Trump’s post on Truth Social re Russia’s war in Ukraine isn’t so unreasonable IMO, and represents a strategy I would be happy for Australia to adopt when dealing with warmonger and human rights abuse states – acknowledge the historic relationship, identify the current stopping point, and outline the consequences for not remedying it.
Good Morning Dawn Patrollers!
The roller coaster ride in the polls for Labor continues. Voters swing to Dutton as Australians expect to be worse off in 2025.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-swing-to-dutton-as-australians-expect-to-be-worse-off-in-2025-20250122-p5l6ar.html
Shaun Carney riffs off this. As 2024 neared a close, the penny finally dropped for the PM: the government was heading for the electoral precipice. Since then, he’s been all over the country making announcements, appearing in the media, calling a meeting of the national cabinet and generally being busy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-now-realises-he-s-on-a-rescue-mission-to-save-the-sinking-ship-20250122-p5l6d1.html
The cost of a free education is the focus of the Greens’ first election pledge of 2025, as the crossbench party promises $800 for every child to cover charges levied by public schools. The announcement will become a part of negotiations with the major parties if neither can form a government after the federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-pledge-800-in-back-to-school-money-for-every-state-school-student-20250122-p5l6al.html
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and treasury spokesman Angus Taylor spent the early part of this week in shadow expenditure review committee meetings as the party prepares to roll out proposals on home ownership, using gas to lower energy bills and broader economic plans before an election due by May.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-mps-want-trump-style-australia-first-economics-pitch-20250121-p5l60i.html
Hate speech laws criminalising violent threats against racial or religious groups could be in force within weeks, as Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus rejects claims from senior Israeli politicians that the Albanese government’s policies on Israel have fuelled a surge in antisemitism.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-lower-the-temperature-hate-speech-laws-could-pass-in-february-20250122-p5l6fy.html
Michelle Grattan comments on the Israeli government’s interference in our local politics.
https://theconversation.com/israel-piles-on-criticism-of-australia-over-antisemitism-while-answers-to-key-questions-elude-authorities-248006
The new Queensland LNP government will veer into new territory after its 100 Day Plan ends in February. What will that look like?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/the-new-year-set-to-reveal-more-about-the-new-state-government-20250101-p5l1je.html
Federal Crossbenchers have urged Labor to act immediately on deepfakes and misinformation before next election. David Pocock and Kate Chaney say laws must be passed as a matter of urgency as AEC issues disinformation and foreign interference warning.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/23/crossbenchers-david-pocock-kate-chaney-deepfakes-urge-labor-to-act-misinformation-deepfakes-aec-warning
I’m including a podcast! Guardian Australia’s Queensland correspondent, Ben Smee, and political reporter Sarah Basford Canales tell Nour Haydar the Coalition’s campaign centres on culture wars and crime.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/jan/22/are-culture-wars-and-an-election-winning-strategy-full-story-podcast
John Quiggan states that Peter Dutton may think voters no longer care about good government. But there’s no such thing as a ‘free lunch’.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/22/dutton-may-think-voters-no-longer-care-about-good-government-but-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-free-lunch
Greg Jericho outlines where the real scare campaign is coming from. Misleading fear campaigns may kill Labor’s superannuation changes. But here are the real numbers.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/jan/23/misleading-fear-campaigns-may-kill-labors-superannuation-changes-but-here-are-the-real-numbers-ntwnfb
Desper-rent: One in four tenants go to extreme lengths to find homes.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2025/01/22/tenants-extreme-lengths-rentals
Now for some world news. No sooner had the newly inaugurated president signed his name on a raft of executive orders to crack down on illegal immigrants than the US-Mexico border was effectively closed off for migrants seeking asylum.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-migrant-deportations-start-as-bishop-pleads-with-him-to-have-mercy-20250122-p5l6f8.html
Trump’s war on migrants could make an enemy of the country he needs most: Mexico
https://theconversation.com/trumps-war-on-migrants-could-make-an-enemy-of-the-country-he-needs-most-mexico-247894
Donald Trump’s announcement on Monday that he was suspending the nation’s refugee resettlement program from 27 January – and then on Wednesday that even those who were approved for travel to the US before then have now had their plans cancelled – has left US advocacy groups shocked, but hardly surprised.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/22/trump-refugee-program
Donald Trump has warned his Russian counterpart that the US is ready to punish Moscow with a barrage of new trade restrictions if it fails to reach an agreement soon to end the war in Ukraine. But what does that mean in reality?
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/trump-signals-tougher-approach-with-putin-on-ukraine-20250123-p5l6kh.html
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a meeting to emphasise their close ties a day after Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th US president. The two leaders discussed their prospective contacts with Trump’s administration during the video call that lasted more than 1½ hours, the Kremlin said.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/putin-and-xi-pick-up-the-phone-to-talk-close-ties-after-trump-s-return-20250122-p5l6ff.html
A day after his return to the White House, uncertainty and trepidation swept parts of America as the newly inaugurated president embarked on one of the boldest demonstrations of presidential power in years.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/uncertainty-trepidation-and-lawsuits-grow-as-trump-unleashes-shock-and-awe-20250122-p5l6f6.html
As January 6 insurrectionists were being released, despite the cold, it was a carnival atmosphere as people held signs, waved flags and danced to a remix of Y.M.C.A. and the MAGA anthem, Trump Town, by Forgiato Blow.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/jubilation-outside-jails-as-trump-fans-give-rioters-a-hero-s-welcome-20250122-p5l6ea.html
Trump May Come to Regret His Jan. 6 Pardons. Here’s Why.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/22/trump-jan-6-pardons-regrets-00199743
Trump also pardoned this guy. US President Donald Trump has pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, who was serving a life sentence after being convicted of running an underground online marketplace that was used by thousands of drug dealers to conduct over $US200 million ($A321 million) worth of illicit sales using bitcoin. He obviously wants to keep the Bitcoin Bros happy.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2025/01/22/silk-road-ross-ulbricht-pardoned
Executive orders show Trump’s power and political theatre, but his honeymoon period may be short-lived.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2025/01/22/trump-honeymoon-period
Trump’s party has become the political home of entrenched interests determined to tilt the playing field even further in their favour. It has behind it the world’s richest men, a massive propaganda machine, the world’s most powerful political party, and now the entire United States government. All hope is not lost, however.
https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/a-liberalism-without-apology-or-fear
Democrats’ immigration debate plays out inside Hispanic Caucus.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/22/democrats-immigration-hispanic-causus-00199970
GOP China hawks mum as Trump throws TikTok a lifeline. Trump’s 75-day extension ignores a law passed with overwhelming bipartisan majorities.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/22/gop-china-trump-tiktok-00199964
Anti-vaccine no more? RFK Jr. is remaking his image to serve Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is telling senators considering his nomination to lead the government’s health agencies he merely wants transparency about vaccines.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/22/rfk-anti-vaxxer-trump-00199771
Julie Macken has a good idea. Reimagining public housing: the transformative potential of Centrelink’s Voluntary Work Program.
https://johnmenadue.com/reimagining-public-housing-the-transformative-potential-of-centrelinks-voluntary-work-program/
Darryl Guppy says that Australia must choose between economic prosperity and subservience to the US trade and military agenda.
https://johnmenadue.com/australia-must-choose-between-economic-prosperity-and-subservience-to-the-us-trade-and-military-agenda/
Reforms to the Companies Act are meant to make Aotearoa New Zealand an easier and safer place to do business. But key gaps in the reforms mean they could fall short of achieving these goals.
https://theconversation.com/nzs-companies-act-is-finally-being-reformed-but-will-the-changes-go-far-enough-246038
Darryl Lockwood warns: Beware misguided attempts to protest the horrific Israeli genocide.
https://johnmenadue.com/beware-misguided-attempts-to-protest-the-horrific-israeli-genocide/
Polly Toynbee says, there’s a way to beat a far-right takeover in the UK. So why has Starmer gone silent about it? With Trump back in the White House, democracy is in danger across the west. Electoral reform is the best way to protect it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/21/donald-trump-uk-far-right-electoral-reform-keir-starmer
Ed Davey, leader of the UK’s Lib Dems says, Elon Musk has shown his hand. If politicians like me won’t curb his malign powers, who will?
It’s the job of democracies around the world to stand strong together and hold oligarchs and their platforms to account.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/22/elon-musk-politicians-oligarchs-malign-powers
Cartoon time!
First Dog On the Moon

Ben Jennings on Prince Harry settling his case against the Sun’s publisher, Rupert Murdoch

Alan Moir

Cathy Wilcox

Dionne Gain

Mark David

Glen Le Lievre

David Rowe

From the Internet
Jack Ohman

Gotta love the British press (some of it at least):

Enjoy!
Banquo 8:23am
Re: Trump, Putin, Russia and Ukraine Yes one of Biden’s failings in policy on the Russian invasion of Ukraine was to constantly respond to Russian threats of red lines, but never set any red lines of his own. That is, to never warn Russia of consequences if they escalated the conflict.
Biden was good at running the US economy but poor at foreign policy IMO. I would add the China containment policy of Blinken and Campbell to that list.
‘wranslide says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:10 pm
Nice photos from the QUAD meeting today. Does Australia, or Japan, or the US ask India about how things are with Russia these days?’
====================
Russia is a zero threat to India. India has probably benefited slightly as a result of the sanctions.
OTOH, Indian governments are perfectly aware that the consistent and growing and aggressive threats to India’s sovereign borders and to India’s trade interests is China.
The big geo-strategic threats by China against India include:
1. China’s occupation of, and military build up in, parts of Bhutan. This is a huge strategic military threat to the very skinny Indian geographical connection with its north-eastern territory.
2. China’s publication of a brand new map showing China’s borders. These borders intrude on current Indian territory and includes claims on the north-eastern territory based on a single and obscure reference to a 7th century Tibetan text. Even international thugs like to have some sort of bullshit cover.
3. China’s Belt and Road infrastructure builds in Pakistan and Myanmar and Sri Lanka combined with a now constant naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Essentially, China has encircled India.
4. China’s decision to start construction on the world’s largest dam on the Bhramaputra River. This is essentially a massive economic threat to huge numbers of India’s (and Bangle Desh’s) irrigation dependent farmers.
In short, Russia is an opportunity. China is a constant and menacing and growing threat.
India is perfectly capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time.
That said, the QUAD commits India to SFA and, IMO, it is hugely unlikely that India would join in military hostilities engaged in by the other members of the QUAD.
‘banquo911 says:
Thursday, January 23, 2025 at 8:23 am
The gratuitous self-praise, incoherence, and conspiratorial partisan bashing notwithstanding, Trump’s post on Truth Social re Russia’s war in Ukraine isn’t so unreasonable IMO, and represents a strategy I would be happy for Australia to adopt when dealing with warmonger and human rights abuse states – acknowledge the historic relationship, identify the current stopping point, and outline the consequences for not remedying it.
…’
==================
The fact is that we do not have a clue what it means in reality because Trump is a routine liar. My view is that we should just wait until we see what Trump bakes in, if anything, before making a final judgement.
Everything crooked Trump says should been seen in the context of him being a liar and a conman.
Boerwar @ #35 Thursday, January 23rd, 2025 – 7:40 am
I was mostly commenting on the rhetoric.
I agree that there is no point speculating, as an average person, what he will or will not follow through on, or just do wildly out of the blue.
Cat, HH
Thanks for the roundups. Great efforts!
Cat I also listen to the Guardian podcast. You might also like the 7:30am podcast by Schwartz media.
Off to work. Have a good day all.
Thanks, HoldenHillbilly!
Re this:
‘Mr. Trump, f— off’: Danish politician lashes out over Greenland proposal: https://globalnews.ca/news/10971681/greenland-donald-trump-f-off-danish-anders-vistisen/
The world has to learn how to resist high pressure salesmen.
Nice comment on the Shaun Carney article
When you have to put pencil to paper. When you have to make your decision. Do you vote for the guy who fixed the mess in 3 years, or do you vote for the guy who was a Senior Minister in successive governments who created the mess?
Great comment from the Shaun Carney article:
‘Mr Dutton asks, are we better off, and the answer is YES we are.
The current Government, under Mr Albanese’s leadership, have achieved dramatic budget and inflation turnarounds based on the precarious situation left by Mr Morrison and his Government. They have achieved this while delivering significant cost of living relief, back-to-back surpluses (something the previous LNP Government could not achieve) and personal tax cuts for everyone. Also, when the ALP came to Government in May 2022, the inflation rate had a six in front of it; it now has a two in front of it. Yet Mr Dutton and the MSM still push the myth that the LNP are better financial managers. Sorry folks, the facts do not support that line of thinking.
So what is Mr Dutton offering?
So far Mr Dutton and his team are all talk and no action. Their policies, thought bubbles is probably more accurate, lack any meaningful detail or costings. The release of the details of their nuclear power policy demonstrated the extent of the fantasy. Not even members of the Opposition believe that it will happen. It is just a political diversion and is all about saving Mr Dutton’s job as leader. In the lead up to the next election, the intention is to sustain the divisiveness and negativity used during the Voice referendum by criticising the Government and flooding social media and the MSM with misinformation.
I wonder if we will see any details from the LNP on their policies (if they have any) before the election.’
Thanks C@T & HH.
The Quiggan & Jericho articles are great. Must reads IMO – really giving me that echo chamber feeling <3
Jericho in particular really is a talent at clearly illustrating the injustice and inequality rife in the Australian economy.
US Cartoons:










”I wonder if we will see any details from the LNP on their policies (if they have any) before the election.’”
Dutton is following the Abbott playbook – unremitting negativity without policy detail. In Abbott’s case, we got the detail in his first budget about 8 months after the election. I would expect something similar should the Liberal-National-Newscorp – Minerals Council Coalition win this year.
Thanks, Alpha Zero! 🙂
Great comment from the Shaun Carney article:
‘I would add to the victories fixing the MyGov app so it works and is no longer terrifying. A lot of what has been done by this government is the quiet stuff that actually helps instead of the culture wars bellowing of the other side. Actual governing. I am deathly tired of hearing about ‘woke’. It refers to being aware of the needs of others, especially the vulnerable in society, and caring about them, not this strange fantasy of the right, who seem to want to eliminate anyone who is not like them.’
Like Dr. Strangelove, Musk has fought to keep his ostensible admiration for the Führer hidden, but all was revealed with that salute. And whereas Strangelove is fiction, Musk is, I think, the real McCoy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzddAYYDZkk
banquo911 @ #42 Thursday, January 23rd, 2025 – 9:01 am
Grog is an old mate from back in the day. I used to read Grog’s Gamut religiously. 🙂
Another great comment from the Carney article
“ this government deserves to be re-elected for its visionary public policy decisions. No other government since Federation would have had the courage to appoint Nikki Savva to the Board of Old Parliament House.”
Fin review reporting now that fed labor government is going to spend $50 million of taxpayers money bailing out Rex airlines.
Err it’s going to go to a Hong kong err communist China private equity outfit who by the way is under investigation.
Libs just keep hiding and let labor do its stuff .