Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Another three federal polls, each giving the Coalition the edge on two-party preferred, two showing Labor’s primary vote with a two in front of it.

Three new polls, none of them terribly encouraging for a government no more than four months away from an election:

• Nine Newspapers bring us the first Resolve Strategic poll of the year, which more or less repeats its grim result for Labor from December – with the apparent addition of a two-party preferred measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, which the pollster has traditionally eschewed such a thing. This has the Coalition leading 52-48, where a determination based on 2022 election preference flows would more likely be at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (steady). Peter Dutton is credited with a 39-34 lead as preferred prime minister, which I believe he is the first time he has led by more than one point on this measure from any pollster, compared with 35-35 last time. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have improved, up two on approval to 33% and down two on disapproval to 55%, but Peter Dutton’s have improved more, up four to 44% and down four to 38%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1616.

• The first Essential Research poll for the year has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%, with a steady 5% undecided. The 2PP+ measure, which uses respondent-allocated preferences and does not distribute the undecided, is unchanged at 48% for the Coalition and 47% for Labor. The monthly leadership ratings find Anthony Albanese perking up with a six-point gain on approval to 45% and a five-point drop on disapproval, also to 45%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The “national mood” is better than it’s been since May 2023, with a seven-point increase since last month in the feeling that the country is headed in the right direction, with “wrong track” down five to 46%. The poll also finds 42% feel the standard of living of Indigenous people has improved over the past decade, with 34% saying it has remained the same and 15% that it has got worse. Forty per cent oppose a separate day for Indigenous recognition, with 30% favouring one separate from Australia Day and 19% favouring one in place of Australia Day. Forty-two per cent expressed support for TikTok to be banned unless sold to a non-Chinese company, down three on last March, with 27% opposed, up two. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election preference flow measures, the former out from 51.5-48.5 last week, the latter from 50.5-49.5. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 42% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1564.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Thks Kirsdarke and others.
    Yes, this poll def caught the site off guard as we were expecting one on Feb-2 before Parliament.
    Glad you were all around!

    C@t – No boost to the LNP. Net sat is a concern, but the main game is the primaries, and not the “champagne net sat’s”.

    I was surprised this poll dropped over the long weekend TBH.

    Anyway, I can smell a new thread coming up in a couple of minutes. We’ll see what WB has to say.

  2. dave says:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 10:00 pm
    If Labor lose this election surely its time to think about deregistration, sending everyone home and allowing another centre left party to take its place.

    Sure, elements of the current Labor party can remain. You don’t want to lose people like Penny Wong. Build a genuine grass roots party without union domination, especially of outfits like the SDA and the CFMEU. Embrace the Teals and elements of the Greens.

    ________

    Prescribing the right wing MO 😉

  3. Yes Dutton is deploying the republican US election campaign. It resonates with certain sections of the electorate. Despite our national myths, there is a deep and nasty mean streak running through Australian culture, papered over with stories of mateship and a fair go. Those myths died a generation ago with Howard, and whole swathes of our country have only gotten meaner since. And they vote.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/27/from-doge-to-smoge-peter-duttons-coalition-is-an-eerie-echo-of-trump-and-musks-america-ntwnfb

  4. “And just like that the Reserve Bank ran out of excuses. After the release of the December quarter inflation figures, the RBA not only should cut interest rates, but it almost certainly will. Failure to do so would be one of the most political and misguided decisions the RBA would have made in recent history.”

    Greg Jericho (Guardian)

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