Three new polls, none of them terribly encouraging for a government no more than four months away from an election:
• Nine Newspapers bring us the first Resolve Strategic poll of the year, which more or less repeats its grim result for Labor from December – with the apparent addition of a two-party preferred measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, which the pollster has traditionally eschewed such a thing. This has the Coalition leading 52-48, where a determination based on 2022 election preference flows would more likely be at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (steady). Peter Dutton is credited with a 39-34 lead as preferred prime minister, which I believe he is the first time he has led by more than one point on this measure from any pollster, compared with 35-35 last time. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have improved, up two on approval to 33% and down two on disapproval to 55%, but Peter Dutton’s have improved more, up four to 44% and down four to 38%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1616.
• The first Essential Research poll for the year has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%, with a steady 5% undecided. The 2PP+ measure, which uses respondent-allocated preferences and does not distribute the undecided, is unchanged at 48% for the Coalition and 47% for Labor. The monthly leadership ratings find Anthony Albanese perking up with a six-point gain on approval to 45% and a five-point drop on disapproval, also to 45%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The “national mood” is better than it’s been since May 2023, with a seven-point increase since last month in the feeling that the country is headed in the right direction, with “wrong track” down five to 46%. The poll also finds 42% feel the standard of living of Indigenous people has improved over the past decade, with 34% saying it has remained the same and 15% that it has got worse. Forty per cent oppose a separate day for Indigenous recognition, with 30% favouring one separate from Australia Day and 19% favouring one in place of Australia Day. Forty-two per cent expressed support for TikTok to be banned unless sold to a non-Chinese company, down three on last March, with 27% opposed, up two. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election preference flow measures, the former out from 51.5-48.5 last week, the latter from 50.5-49.5. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 42% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1564.
Ven @ #1549 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 6:36 pm
Not yet, Ven. But I will!
I’ve been push mowing my lawn. 😀
davesays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:15 pm
Ven, India’s paltry weapons systems are insignificant compared to the power of the United States and Australia.
====================================================
“Your superior intellect is no match for our puny weapons.”
“Argh! He’s got a board with a nail in it!”
“They will continue to make bigger boards with bigger nails until they make a board with a nail so large it will destroy them all AHAHAHAHAHAHA!”
Looking at Peter Dutton’s latest shadow ministry list, he has:
James Stevens MP, Shadow Assistant Minister for Government Waste Reduction
Jacinta Price, Shadow Minister for Government Efficiency
Does not sound like an efficient use of resources.
Thanks @sprocket, I’m aware of Paterson’s past, I was asking about his recent promotion. Any answers there?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/01/23/federal-polls-resolve-strategic-essential-research-and-roy-morgan-open-thread/comment-page-32/#comment-4441753
This is so funny
sprocket_says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 7:02 pm
Looking at Peter Dutton’s latest shadow ministry list, he has:
James Stevens MP, Shadow Assistant Minister for Government Waste Reduction
Jacinta Price, Shadow Minister for Government Efficiency
Does not sound like an efficient use of resources.
================================================
A cunning plan. So one can cut the others position and claim they have made an efficiency dividend.
Aggmagpie, I wonder if Dutton’s shadow ministers will give us a continuous update as to what wasteful programs are to get the chop, or do we have to wait till they win an election?
Magpies
We’ll see who the new Coalition Senate office holders are on Monday week, when the Parliament resumes. Birmingham has packed his bags, and has left the building – straight into a non-conflicted job with the ANZ Bank.
James Paterson has sharp elbows, and serious boosting by NewsCorp. I suspect this is the reason Dutton has added him to his kitchen cabinet.
That Dutton continues to make statements about the aboriginal flag is a very deliberate ploy. The algorithms flagged a very specific cohort in the US election, young men between 18 and 25. A cohort that for the most part hasn’t voted before and is up for grabs. The tough man, the grievances, selfishness are all tactics that
work to get these votes locked in.
Appeals to decency, or the right thing to do, or good vibes is a losing strategy in terms of swinging these votes back to the left. And once lost they’ll more than likely never come back.
Very deliberate deployment of the Trump US election strategy for this cohort of voters, and it worked there, so it’s likely to work here. They consume the same media and use the same platforms.
Ven hate to say it but Indian T90’s will lift their hats to APFSDS in exactly the same way as Russian T90’s
Good point, we will wait and see. I thought it may have been specifically reported somewhere I missed.
As I understand it though, not any member can be included in the ‘leadership group’. My understanding is that group consists of the leader, deputy leader, senate leader and deputy and manager of opposition business. Hence my hypothesis that he has been made deputy Senate leader. Which, if true, and with Sukkar’s promotion, would mean Ley is now the only ‘moderate’ in that group… now 1/5 down from 3/5.
Tbh that’s more reflective of the larger party room now lol
Patterson has been regularly described as “close” to Dutton. Likely shares his 1950s view of the world. So his promotion to the leadership group is probably no surprise.
The interesting appointment is Sukkar as manager of opposition business.
He is a serial interjector in question time, sin binned as regularly as clockwork. Sometimes even when a minister is answering his question.
I doubt he is in the house long enough to know how the standing orders work!
Burke will relish the challenge no doubt.
We have some economists commenting on Dutton’s lunch tax..
Independent economist Saul Eslake said the policy, if implemented, would be a candidate to join his informal list of “the dumbest tax policy decisions of the past 30 years”.
The tax break would probably drive a decline in productivity, Mr Eslake said, since it would result in more people being employed in small business than otherwise would be the case. Productivity in small business is 21 per cent lower than the all-business average, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Budget watcher Chris Richardson said “creating loopholes for small businesses to have a bit of fun at the expense of taxpayers heads in the exact opposite direction of what the federal budget needs”.
Mr Eslake said the policy was yet another case of “small business fetishism”, or the belief “that there is something inherently more noble about operating a small business than working for a big one, a government agency, or a not-for-profit”.
“Indeed I think that policies based on ‘small business fetishism’ – such as the lower company tax rate for small businesses, and increased payroll-tax-free thresholds for small business – have contributed to the decline in overall labour productivity growth in Australia over the past decade,” he said.
https://www.afr.com/politics/dutton-s-taxpayer-funded-business-lunches-to-cost-less-than-250m-20250124-p5l6ye
‘Ven says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:09 pm
Socrates, A_E, BW (Please note that India’s military equipment is displayed during Republic day celebrations for last 75 years…’
================
The reality? China’s PLA has been grabbing bits and piece of Indian territory for years.
Agree that – PLA has shat all over the Indian military.
Imagine being so weak that you agree to fight with sticks and stones literally in the Himalayas.
Of course Indians are the Italians of the sub continent – treacherous fair weather friends as shown by their relationship with the Russians.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 4:05 pm
Greetings from Canberra
_____________________
I hope you got the traditional owners’ permission for your visit. You will be in the shit if you didn’t.
But the ceremony screamed the opposite – Albanese’s Australia judges you by your tribe.
“Uncle” Warren Daly then gave a welcome to country, telling Australians they shouldn’t enter Canberra without the traditional owners’ permission: “As in the white man’s world, you wouldn’t want your neighbour or total stranger to enter your home or yard without asking permission.
Last few posts are exactly the messaging going to 18-25 year old men.
Lurking, just in case.
I believe “it” will be Sunday Feb-2.
No.1 v No.2 tonight at the AO Final.
What the hell does that mean?
I’d be very surprised if there were a Newspoll on a public holiday long weekend.
”Aggmagpie, I wonder if Dutton’s shadow ministers will give us a continuous update as to what wasteful programs are to get the chop…”
Health, education, Medicare, social security, NDIS, the ABC, infrastructure unless it benefits Liberal mates, in fact anything that doesn’t benefit Coalition mates or Coalition electorates… Also, sell off what little remains in public ownership.
Yes Fess, they generally drop one just before Parliament sits.
I’m not expecting one tonight.
BK – thanks for your nice words to all, earlier today.
We will try to keep the show on the road for PB 2025!
Britain’s falling birth rate risks adding 7p to the average income tax rate, a think tank has said. A report by Policy Exchange calculated that continued low birth rates and the ageing population could result in government spending rising to 58 per cent of GDP. In the absence of increased economic growth, this would require an income tax rise equivalent to 7.4 percentage points. The official fertility rate is at a record low and statistics released at the end of last year showed the number of children born to British mothers has fallen by a quarter in 15 years. This has been offset by the bigger families of migrant populations, with one in 13 children (7.9 per cent) in the UK now born to parents from Bangladesh, India or Pakistan.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/26/britains-falling-birth-rate-risks-increasing-income-tax/
Taylormade,
You have NFI. You bigot.
Confessions says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 8:43 pm
I hope you got the traditional owners’ permission for your visit. You will be in the shit if you didn’t.
What the hell does that mean?
____________________________________________
It means Taylormade thinks the indigenous people of this nation should feel incredibly lucky that not all were fed poisoned flour.
Here we go. Muslim voters who voted for Trump just got the icing on their christmas cake:
He wants Gaza to be cleaned out and Gazans to be rehoused in Jordan and Egypt. He has put 2,000 pound bombs back on Netanyahu’s menu. He has appointed a secretary of State for Defence who chants ‘Kill All Muslims, Kill All Muslims.’ And his US ambassador to Israel does not believe there is any such thing as a ‘Palestinian.’
Meanwhile they get to pay more for eggs and gas to go with that.
Trump and Dutton practice to deceive. There is zero difference between their basic MO. Australian muslims would be stark staring raving mad to vote for Dutton.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/26/trump-resumes-sending-2000-pound-bombs-to-israel-undoing-biden-pause
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 9:00 pm
Britain’s falling birth rate risks adding 7p to the average income tax rate,….’
=================
That; plus Britons never ever will be slaves cos there are no Britons left.
Dutton and his supporters will seek to riff off the Voice referendum.
The vicious and vile racism that clogged social media worked extremely well then and will, I imagine, work its electoral magic again.
Jannik Sinner should win the Mens Final at the AO. Zverev is making too many basic mistakes & unforced errors.
There has been a curious sharp boost in Canadian polling for the Liberals in the past month, according to the EKOS pollster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period
Their polling has the Conservatives down -7.4 and the Liberals up +13.8 since 19 December.
It remains to be seen if this boost is reflected in other polls though.
From the River to the sea
Gaza will be free
…Of Palestinians
Kirsdarke @ #1581 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:12 pm
Maybe they’re afraid Poilievre will take Canada into a union with Trump?
Expelling 2 million people to Jordan is the sort of thing you read in the comments to nytimes articles, so it’s kinda surprising to hear Trump suggest it at one level.
At another level, it is simply par for the course.
C@tmomma @ #1583 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:13 pm
That’s what I think too. According to the wiki page, there’s only been 2 polls since Trump’s inauguration (albeit both by EKOS) and now that Trudeau’s stepping down a lot of Canadians seem to be getting spooked by Trump.
Looks like there is a newspoll.
Can someone access the Oz pls
C@t, WB or Kirsdarke – do either of you have Oz access pls.
Looks like we have a newspoll. Primaries pls
Edit: 51-49 via KB
Federal Newspoll
TPP: ALP 51 (-1) L/NP 51 (+1)
Primaries: ALP 31 (-2) L/NP 39 (0) GRN 12 (+1) ON 7 (0) OTH 11 (+1)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-majority-of-voters-tip-coalition-victory-at-next-election/news-story/a5db4bc6fccad9cdd87496adcb35752f
A majority of voters for the first time expect the Coalition to win the next federal election, with Anthony Albanese sliding to the lowest approval levels since becoming Prime Minister amid a fall in support for Labor. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for the Australian shows the Coalition kicking off the election year with Liberal leader Peter Dutton closing the gap further as preferred prime minister and the Coalition leading 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis.
Labor’s primary vote has fallen two points since December 2024 to an equal record low of 31 per cent, with the Coalition’s primary vote remaining steady at 39 per cent.
The two-point fall in Labor’s primary vote since December last year has transferred to a single-point gain both for the Greens to 12 per cent and to other minor parties and independents, including teal independents to 11 per cent. Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party remained unchanged at 7 per cent.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-majority-of-voters-tip-coalition-victory-at-next-election/news-story/a5db4bc6fccad9cdd87496adcb35752f?amp
Newspoll results:
2pp: ALP 49 (-1) LNP 51 (+1)
Primaries: ALP 31 (-2) LNP 39 (0) GRN 12 (+1) ON (0)
Albanese: Approval 37 (-3) Disapproal 57 (+3)
Dutton: Approval 40 (+1) Disapproval 51 (0)
Preferred PM: Albanese 44 (-1) Dutton 41 (+3)
Preferred PM: Albanese 44 (-1) Dutton 41 (+3)
Albanese: Approve 37 (-3) Disapprove 57 (+3)
Dutton: Approve 40 (+1) Disapprove 51 (0)
Quick, someone activate the Scott-Signal!
Was in something of a rush but eh, Leroy’s got the right numbers. I wish One Nation’s vote was 0.
Getting conned again just like the Americans. Never learn. Never will.
Yes, waiting for Scott to assure us Newspoll shows Albanese is winning a big majority at the next election, or those evil LNP media units have faked a pro Dutton poll.
Thanks all – sorry, I don’t have Oz access. Appreciate you dropping by when we all thought this would come next week.
ALP primary – not the best, but not “falling off a cliff”
Net sat minus 20. From memory it was minus 15 in early Dec. This is a bit of a drop too over summer.
Dutton – minus 11.
This is the first poll post the holiday period.
(ie: most people went back to work around 6 to 13-Jan).
Keep Calm and Carry On. 😐
nadia88 @ #1596 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 9:50 pm
From my observation the LNP haven’t benefited in a concrete way via their PV either.
It’s a complex situation that will provide for a fascinating election.
Angry @angrystaffer.bsky.social
·
11h
This is how you say “go fuck yourself sideways with a porcupine” in inspector general speak.
Going to be interesting to see how the administration responds
If Labor lose this election surely its time to think about deregistration, sending everyone home and allowing another centre left party to take its place.
Sure, elements of the current Labor party can remain. You don’t want to lose people like Penny Wong. Build a genuine grass roots party without union domination, especially of outfits like the SDA and the CFMEU. Embrace the Teals and elements of the Greens.