Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Another three federal polls, each giving the Coalition the edge on two-party preferred, two showing Labor’s primary vote with a two in front of it.

Three new polls, none of them terribly encouraging for a government no more than four months away from an election:

• Nine Newspapers bring us the first Resolve Strategic poll of the year, which more or less repeats its grim result for Labor from December – with the apparent addition of a two-party preferred measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, which the pollster has traditionally eschewed such a thing. This has the Coalition leading 52-48, where a determination based on 2022 election preference flows would more likely be at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (steady). Peter Dutton is credited with a 39-34 lead as preferred prime minister, which I believe he is the first time he has led by more than one point on this measure from any pollster, compared with 35-35 last time. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have improved, up two on approval to 33% and down two on disapproval to 55%, but Peter Dutton’s have improved more, up four to 44% and down four to 38%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1616.

• The first Essential Research poll for the year has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%, with a steady 5% undecided. The 2PP+ measure, which uses respondent-allocated preferences and does not distribute the undecided, is unchanged at 48% for the Coalition and 47% for Labor. The monthly leadership ratings find Anthony Albanese perking up with a six-point gain on approval to 45% and a five-point drop on disapproval, also to 45%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The “national mood” is better than it’s been since May 2023, with a seven-point increase since last month in the feeling that the country is headed in the right direction, with “wrong track” down five to 46%. The poll also finds 42% feel the standard of living of Indigenous people has improved over the past decade, with 34% saying it has remained the same and 15% that it has got worse. Forty per cent oppose a separate day for Indigenous recognition, with 30% favouring one separate from Australia Day and 19% favouring one in place of Australia Day. Forty-two per cent expressed support for TikTok to be banned unless sold to a non-Chinese company, down three on last March, with 27% opposed, up two. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election preference flow measures, the former out from 51.5-48.5 last week, the latter from 50.5-49.5. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 42% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1564.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 31 of 33
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  1. Thanks to all the Bludgers who provided dawn patrols.

    ‘About half of U.S. adults have an unfavorable view of Elon Musk, and an even larger share disapprove of President Trump relying on advice from billionaires to shape government policy, per new AP-NORC poll data. Why it matters: Musk is playing a central role in the Trump administration with the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which he has promised will revolutionize the U.S. government. But Americans are far from sold on the initiative and its leader: https://www.axios.com/2025/01/24/musk-doge-trump-billionaires-disapprove-poll
    =====================
    Trump ambushed them. Gobble.Gobble.Gobble.
    Dutton wants to ambush his turkeys.
    Will they wake up in time?

  2. Yeah looks like ethnic cleansing is on the cards in Gaza under Trump. No wonder the Israeli’s agreed to the ceasefire if a population transfer of 2m Palestinians has been promised to them.

    Whether Trump can persuade the Arab countries to take 2m is another question.

  3. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 3:44 pm

    President Donald Trump indicated Saturday that he had spoken with the king of Jordan about a potential plan to construct housing and move more than 1 million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to other countries, a remarkable and unusual proposal from a sitting US president….’
    =======================
    1. Trump facilitating Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
    2. Jordan has already had a civil war with Palestinian refugees. It is hardly likely to want a million more.

  4. A E @ 2.46
    Your specific recollection of Where Eagles Dare is certainly far greater than my own & I admit I can’t recall any individual player. What I can vaguely recall is an evil Gestapo officer or the like with nefarious ambitions upon a heroine. Plus literally hundreds of witless Krauts running hither & thither as their bases are blown to smithereens by the small batch of Allied heroes.
    I think that’s right, they all blur into one. I didn’t see it when it came out, I only saw it several years ago & was disappointed by its similarity to the standards of the genre. It was this disappointment that made me mention it as an example.

  5. Its probably worth billions to Israel to “re-settle the Palestinians”. If your Israel you promise to pay off the national debt of Jordan plus US$10bn and the deal is done.

    The Jordanian national debt is US$40bn – so all in all its about 10% of a Greenland to do it. Being the Middle East how much would end up in Swiss Bank Accounts would be an interesting question.

  6. Someone should ask Ley:

    ‘When are the first Martians going to be massacred, raped, obliterated by the flu, and/or have all their resources stolen from them?

    (Asking for a convict friend.)

  7. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 4:02 pm
    Someone should ask Ley:

    ‘When are the first Martians going to be massacred, raped, obliterated by the flu, and/or have all their resources stolen from them?

    (Asking for a convict friend.)
    ___________________________
    Will there be defined benefit pensions on Mars?

  8. I can’t imagine the Palestinians would have any greater loyalty to Abdullah than they had for Hussein. The Hashemites appear to have Jordan under control but that may not be the case with a 1m more people forcibly resettled. Perhaps Trump has a master plan and will use the Palestinians to develop Greenland – hope they like the cold.

  9. Greetings from Canberra. First time I’ve visited in 20 years and I cannot believe how much the place has declined! Driving in there’s graffiti everywhere, construction that would rival Sydney, and just overall run down-ness.

    What has happened to the nation’s capital?

  10. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 4:05 pm
    Greetings from Canberra. First time I’ve visited in 20 years and I cannot believe how much the place has declined! Driving in there’s graffiti everywhere, construction that would rival Sydney, and just overall run down-ness.
    ======================================================

    Obviously not a news worthy sort of graffiti, as it doesn’t appear ever on our news bulletins.

  11. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 4:05 pm
    Greetings from Canberra. First time I’ve visited in 20 years and I cannot believe how much the place has declined! Driving in there’s graffiti everywhere, construction that would rival Sydney, and just overall run down-ness.

    What has happened to the nation’s capital?
    ________________________________
    I would say self-government has worked as intended , ie to cut funding.

    Ironically they can still afford a de facto foreign affairs minister (who is an ex Liberal MP).

  12. Sussan Ley is the Liz Truss of Australian politics. Always jumping on board the latest RW bandwagon and laughingly attempting a pirouette but ends up falling flat on her face.

  13. How many times does Egypt have to say they don’t want to take any Palestinians?

    I imagine Jordan would not like the idea of importing troublemakers from Gaza to their country either. Jordan is still one of the more moderate and stable ME countries.

    Anyway, Trump only wants Palestinians out of Gaza so he can build his gaudy properties there.

    But boy, doesn’t this latest proposal put his megalomania up in neon lights? He barely won the US election and now he thinks he’s king of the world!

  14. [‘A brave new authoritarian world

    Australia has been following the United States on the foreign stage since the end of World War II. Since 2014, successive Australian governments have been allowing Washington to install its military presence and ultimate control over military installations across this continent, and our country usually climbs on board to join any foreign conflict the White House desires.

    Foreign minister Penny Wong was at president Trump’s inauguration on Monday, so she would have witnessed Musk’s notorious Nazi salutes.

    Wong’s presence at the event, ahead of a meeting with incoming US secretary of state Marco Rubio, is now being spruiked as a sign of Australian strength, while, when asked about Trump’s plans to take the Panama Canal and Greenland, defence minister Richard Marles said a lot of things, but he ultimately refrained from suggesting our nation would not be a part of such military ventures.

    And Trump’s antiimmigration, anti-LGBTIQ and anti-diversity stance will further have implications for the Australian setting, as these positions have long been held by ultraconservative Liberal National parliamentarians in this country, and they especially ring true for potential next Australian prime minister Peter Dutton.’]

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/trumps-authoritarianism-has-already-reshaped-western-politics/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-5

  15. Frankfurt: Elon Musk made a surprise appearance during an Alternative for Germany election campaign event in Halle in eastern Germany on Saturday night [Sunday AEDT], speaking publicly in support of the far-right party for the second time in as many weeks.

    Addressing a hall of 4500 people alongside party leader Alice Weidel, Musk spoke live via video link about preserving German culture and protecting the German people.

    “It’s good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything,” Musk said.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/elon-musk-beams-into-far-right-rally-to-praise-german-values-20250126-p5l78y.html

    Quote: “I For One Welcome Our New X Overlords”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrpN4zu_IrM

  16. So the fraudster/rapist Trump wants to move the Palestinians out of Gaza.

    I wonder if he dreamed this up himself or it was the son-in-law Kushner who has already had wet dreams about the coastal redevelopment profits to be made. I can’t see any Arab nations wanting to have any part of this.

    In addition to that, recently Trump reckoned he would get OPEC countries to lower the price of oil. The Saudis have already told him to get stuffed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/news/saudi-arabia-deals-blow-to-trump-s-proposal-to-slash-oil-prices/ar-AA1xQo0H?ocid=nl_article_link

    The MAGA’s wanted isolation from the rest of the world. They are about to get it, but not on their terms.

  17. The German People have a reproduction rate of 1.46 which means that the German People and German Culture are going to disappear.

  18. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 4:36 pm
    C@t:

    Pete Hegseth is the ultimate DEI hire!
    ===============================================

    Certainly a pale stale male.

  19. There is nothing stale about Hegseth who chanted ‘Kill all muslims, Kill all muslims’ when pissed in a bar somewhere in the Deep South.

    Australian muslims could well take a lesson from American muslims.

    Trump is a charlatan. Dutton is a charlatan.

  20. We all know that the Liberal and Nationals nine years of government were marked by a conga line of crooks, spivs and sleeve tuggers.

    Dutton was part of those governments.

    Trump’s brand new White House Press Secretary is no suprise. At all, at all. Having a conflict of interest, having some allegations of illegal behaviour, and playing silly buggers with other peoples money all seem to be badges of merit.

    https://www.notus.org/whitehouse/trump-white-house-press-secretary-200k-illicit-contributions

  21. Anyway, Trump only wants Palestinians out of Gaza so he can build his gaudy properties there.???

    I somehow don’t think he will live long enough to see THAT !.

  22. Europe fertility rate of the larger countries:
    Ukraine 1.0
    Spain 1.16
    Italy 1.24
    Poland 1.29
    Greece 1.32
    Portugal 1.46
    Ireland 1.55
    UK 1.56
    France 1.79

    All the traditional cultures in these countries, and the rest of Europe, will disappear by 2100.

  23. Boerwar @ #1526 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 4:44 pm

    There is nothing stale about Hegseth who chanted ‘Kill all muslims, Kill all muslims’ when pissed in a bar somewhere in the Deep South.

    Australian muslims could well take a lesson from American muslims.

    Trump is a charlatan. Dutton is a charlatan.

    This video explains how these mouthpieces for billionaires gull the people who blindly end up voting for them:

    https://youtu.be/PWI0Yvf_VX0?si=O5HBfwdlKQjctieu

    Basically, just say what they want to hear and stoke their grievances.

  24. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 4:59 pm
    Europe fertility rate of the larger countries:
    Ukraine 1.0
    Spain 1.16
    Italy 1.24
    Poland 1.29
    Greece 1.32
    Portugal 1.46
    Ireland 1.55
    UK 1.56
    France 1.79

    All the traditional cultures in these countries, and the rest of Europe, will disappear by 2100.
    ===================================================

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Ukraine in 2022 was 1.26 and Russia 1.42.

    Source: Googled “Ukraine fertility rate”

  25. Republic Day parade: ‘Nari shakti'(meaning Women’s power), military firepower on display at Kartavya Path

    76th Republic Day celebrations, led by President Droupadi Murmu, are underway with tens of thousands attending the grand parade at Kartavya Path. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the chief guest this year.
    https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/76th-republic-day-grand-parade-kartavya-path-tableaus-indonesia-president-chief-guest-president-murmu-pm-modi-2670235-2025-01-26?utm_source=Story_hp&utm_medium=Story&utm_campaign=home_Story

  26. Susan Lays comparison of the first fleet with Elin Musk’s “colonisation” of Mars is offensive.

    However, if she believes that comparison is valid and is good thing, then she should sign up for the Mars trip now.

    Let’s send her in the advance party. In the spirit of Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy (re Hairdressers and HR managers) “the rest will be along shortly”.

  27. Tamil predates sand and stone-age: Why India should embrace latest findings and dig deeper
    Tamil Nadu’s archaeology department recently released stunning evidence that Chief Minister MK Stalin said showed the Iron Age beginning there. Stalin lost no time in locating the new findings in the political context of the Aryan-versus-Dravidian debate. Regardless of who is on which side of these debates, it is time the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) ended its criminal neglect of an unfolding old civilisation. We need a massive national effort to unearth the secrets of this land. After all, Tamil Nadu is a part of India.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/sunday-special/story/bharatvarsha-thamizhagam-dwarakas-under-sea-iron-age-tamil-nadu-stalin-keeladi-kumari-kandam-sanskrit-2670171-2025-01-26?utm_source=Story_hp&utm_medium=Story&utm_campaign=home_Story

    “DAMASCUS SWORD AND TAMIL NADU STEEL
    A Professor Emeritus from Cambridge has stated, “This is the first evidence worldwide suggesting smelted iron usage as early as the middle of the third millennium BCE. It has profound implications for world archaeology.”

    advertisement

    A former ASI Director General has lauded the findings, calling Tamil Nadu a hub of independent culture and technological advancement. The report quoted by the CM, by itself, is an exhaustive document that will pass the test of scientific scrutiny and keep with the current standards and trends in archaeological research. All reputed labs that received samples reported identical results of affirmation.

    Again, this is the latest in a long and regular line of findings at various sites in Tamil Nadu in the last few years vis-a-vis the Iron Age. Earlier excavations in places like Adichanallur revealed the use of iron between 2500 and 3000 BCE, and the timeline has been pushed back further now. There are credible claims that the legendary Damascus sword had Tamil Nadu steel.”

  28. It’s almost over for another year:

    – a US billionaire using his newspapers to decree how Australians must treat Australia Day and savagely attacking anyone with a contrary opinion.

    – ably assisted by a certain leader of the opposition.

  29. Socrates, A_E, BW (Please note that India’s military equipment is displayed during Republic day celebrations for last 75 years. So nothing new about showing it now. I think and I could be wrong but Nehru got the idea from Soviet union parades)
    T-90 Bhishma tanks, Nag missile systems steal the show at 76th R-Day Parade
    The Indian Army’s impressive display of military might and technological advancements at the 76th Republic Day parade stole the show at the Kartavya Path on Sunday.

    The T-90 Bhishma tank, commanded by Captain Navjot Singh Atwal of the 74 Armoured Regiment, led the Mechanised Columns, and demonstrated India’s cutting-edge military technology.

    The T-90 Bhishma is a symbol of India’s cutting-edge military prowess, designed on the Hunter-Killer concept. It boasts a powerful 125 mm smooth bore gun, a 7.62 mm co-axial machine gun, and a 12.7 mm anti-aircraft gun. Equipped to fire laser-guided missiles, this tank can engage targets at a range of up to five kilometres, even during the night.

  30. 5 mind-boggling reactions to Trump’s second term

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/25/2298701/-5-mind-boggling-reactions-to-Trump-s-second-term?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web

    “Too many voters decided to fuck around by voting for Donald Trump. Just days into the Trump administration, they’re already starting to find out.

    Prepare yourself for what you’re about to read. It boggles all imagination. ”

    Just a sample:
    ?

    ?

    https://cdn.prod.dailykos.com/images/1390720/large/Medicare.jpeg

    https://cdn.prod.dailykos.com/images/1390722/large/genocide.jpeg?

  31. Peter Dutton has released an Australia Day video that says all right things for the day.

    However, the question remains, why won’t this gutless wonder who is fond of describing his opponent as weak, say those nice words at a live interview and subject himself to some questions?


  32. davesays:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:15 pm
    Ven, India’s paltry weapons systems are insignificant compared to the power of the United States and Australia

    Well said nath. 🙂
    Canadian PM Trudeau said that India is a National Security threat to Canada. He forgot to include Australia in that sentence.

    Since India is no match to Australia, Australians can sleep easy. 🙂

  33. If trump can grab Greenland then Australia should claim India. Restore the Raj. Send Boerwar out there in a pith helmet as viceroy.

  34. Granny Anny @ #1544 Sunday, January 26th, 2025 – 6:19 pm

    Peter Dutton has released an Australia Day video that says all right things for the day.

    However, the question remains, why won’t this gutless wonder who is fond of describing his opponent as weak, say those nice words at a live interview and subject himself to some questions?

    Because he’s weak.


  35. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:29 pm
    For everyone who fell for Trump saying he had nothing to do with Project 2025:

    C@tmomma
    Did you have chance to read the article by Kos I posted @6:16 pm on gullible Trump voters were?

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