Three new polls, none of them terribly encouraging for a government no more than four months away from an election:
• Nine Newspapers bring us the first Resolve Strategic poll of the year, which more or less repeats its grim result for Labor from December – with the apparent addition of a two-party preferred measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, which the pollster has traditionally eschewed such a thing. This has the Coalition leading 52-48, where a determination based on 2022 election preference flows would more likely be at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (steady). Peter Dutton is credited with a 39-34 lead as preferred prime minister, which I believe he is the first time he has led by more than one point on this measure from any pollster, compared with 35-35 last time. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have improved, up two on approval to 33% and down two on disapproval to 55%, but Peter Dutton’s have improved more, up four to 44% and down four to 38%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1616.
• The first Essential Research poll for the year has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%, with a steady 5% undecided. The 2PP+ measure, which uses respondent-allocated preferences and does not distribute the undecided, is unchanged at 48% for the Coalition and 47% for Labor. The monthly leadership ratings find Anthony Albanese perking up with a six-point gain on approval to 45% and a five-point drop on disapproval, also to 45%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The “national mood” is better than it’s been since May 2023, with a seven-point increase since last month in the feeling that the country is headed in the right direction, with “wrong track” down five to 46%. The poll also finds 42% feel the standard of living of Indigenous people has improved over the past decade, with 34% saying it has remained the same and 15% that it has got worse. Forty per cent oppose a separate day for Indigenous recognition, with 30% favouring one separate from Australia Day and 19% favouring one in place of Australia Day. Forty-two per cent expressed support for TikTok to be banned unless sold to a non-Chinese company, down three on last March, with 27% opposed, up two. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election preference flow measures, the former out from 51.5-48.5 last week, the latter from 50.5-49.5. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 42% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1564.
mj says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:55 pm
When recently has the US been a liberal, caring world leader? Their govt’s consistently neglect and dehumanise people, including their own citizens, which is a major part of the reason they are where they are now. We’re on the same path just a little bit behind.
_________
When has there been a liberal, caring world leader? Ever? There must be one at least 🙂
Griff says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 10:08 pm
When has there been a liberal, caring world leader? Ever? There must be one at least
According to China, China is:
China’s approach becomes more and more attractive when people get tired of fighting
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202407/1316668.shtml
We just need to ask Irene, she will confirm.
Very gracious concession & acceptance speeches from the combatants. It was also nice to see Goolagong Cawley present the trophies. And I have to say that doubles specialist Woodbridge did a great job as MC. And thank fuck that the “Tipping Point” will resume on Monday as well as MAFS.
Best birthday present ever!
C@tmomma 1 (Madison Keys) V Centre (Aryna Sabalenka) 0
How sweet it is. 😀
Golf Foxtrot Yankee @ #1296 Saturday, January 25th, 2025 – 9:49 pm
I hope he did his dough. He’s so smug. He tries to make us believe only HE has all the answers. To everything. From politics to sport. Well, guess what? He doesn’t.
Are you sure Keys isn’t a Trumpist C@t?
And big congratulations to Neil Daniher for being named Australian of the Year. A more worthy recipient I could not think of this year.
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 10:25 pm
Best birthday present ever!
C@tmomma 1 (Madison Keys) V Centre (Aryna Sabalenka) 0
How sweet it is.
==============================================
Paul A want be happy either. Madison could be labelled a DEI hire if she had a job with the US Government. Proves how dumb Trumps targeting of people of diversity actually is. As in this case the person of diversity tops the class.
davidwh @ #1306 Saturday, January 25th, 2025 – 10:29 pm
Why does that thought even occur to you, davidwh? It’s a cheap shot at her. And me for supporting her.
What I do care about is that she beat the Belorussian. Anyone who is from a country that aids and abets Putin deserves to lose.
Well may you also ask, is Sabalenka a Putinist? 😐
Happy Birthday C@t!
Entropy,
I wonder if Trump will invite her to the WH?
Griff says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 10:08 pm
When has there been a liberal, caring world leader? Ever? There must be one at least
———
Go ask your mate Tricot (comment at 9:47pm)
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 10:37 pm
Entropy,
I wonder if Trump will invite her to the WH?
===============================================
I don’t know how to post that Family Guy meme but i doubt she passes that test.
Though just found a you tube video of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkO-qDvwEgg
Though i note on the colour card there is no orange. Maybe Trump would fail the test too?
From Keys wikipaedia entry: Keys is biracial, as her mother is a European American and her father is African American. On her race, she has said, “I don’t really identify myself as white or African American. I’m just me. I’m Madison.”
I like that.
Merry birthday, C@t.
(Just a cheerful little twist on the words that I like to do).
Entropy @ #1308 Saturday, January 25th, 2025 – 10:02 pm
No, you see, because Trump is President, she felt more confident as her country’s back in good hands, so she won. If Biden were still President or Harris was President, she’d feel too ashamed and would’ve bombed out early! 😉
Griff says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 10:08 pm
When has there been a liberal, caring world leader? Ever? There must be one at least
_________________
Kofi Annan.
After God made him he took a 30 minute break and said ‘that was a good one’.
Happy Birthday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ScOGcdWuPM
JJ Hall, Kirsdarke and Entropy…Aw 😳
A reflection on Trump:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu8u9ZbCJgQ
Trump/Musk & Bezos will tank the US economy within 12 months. The 2026 Mid-Terms will mimic 1932, with the GOP swept from the House & Senate. Trump won’t survive 2028. I, for one, welcome President AOC.
The thing I find most telling is that not one of the African-American Republicans who sold their souls to Trump have been rewarded this time. Not Tim Scott. Not Byron Donalds. Not Ben Carson.
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 11:08 pm
JJ Hall, Kirsdarke and Entropy…Aw
===================================
Shucks
Though i did discover if you google “cats singing happy birthday”. The number of hits is enormous.
It’s a wonder that any African Americans vote Democrat considering the history of that party.
Been There
“ I’m sure that scrapping all private health rebates and directing them into the public health system would make for a better world for most Australians.
Same as private school funding regarding education.”
————————————————————
Absolutely true. There is no evidence anywhere that private health or schools are cheaper than public for the same quality. Quite the opposite. Then there is the huge cost of duplicate administration for two systems on top of that.
The national savings from replacing private health and schools with an expanded public system would be many billions per annum.
davesays:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 11:20 pm
It’s a wonder that any African Americans vote Democrat considering the history of that party.
==================================================
The only party to have an African American President. The only party to have an African American women Presidential candidate. The recent history, at least, doesn’t look that bad.
Plus one to warm the cockles of OC’s Irish heart. I believe they are the only party to have had Catholic Presidents too.
I would like to join the congratulations to Neil Daniher for being named as AOTY.
Neil is a fine choice who has been courageous and stoic in the face of a cruel disease. His choice deserves bipartisan support and should be a unifying moment.
Happy Birthday catmomma
A_E
You definitely win the blog for today!
Thanks Socrates.
I doubt that any political party will have the guts to do that.
The general uneducated would not even get the gist of such a reform.
rhwombat
+1000 from me!
It is time the baton was handed over to a new, younger, hungry generation.
I felt the same when I retired myself. I had a great job that I had loved, did some enthusiastic teaching, some interesting research, and some good mentoring of the next generation (who will face a very different academic / research landscape).
Apparently one of the things I have been since noted for, in a positive fashion, is knowing how to retire.
dave @ #1324 Saturday, January 25th, 2025 – 10:50 pm
Probably because it’s not 1856 anymore.
Wat Tylersays:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 11:58 pm
dave @ #1324 Saturday, January 25th, 2025 – 10:50 pm
It’s a wonder that any African Americans vote Democrat considering the history of that party.
Probably because it’s not 1856 anymore.
==================================================
That’s nothing, there are some on here still trying to get over 1649.
1856? Try the 1950s. And of course the recent history is totally different, but the idea that if African Americans vote republican they have ‘sold their souls’ is insulting to them and to the very idea of politics.
Some music for PRer’s
Springtime for Elon
https://youtu.be/OvfIneIoAWw?si=KBZz5CCGnZuSdNS-
From the land of the free…
Some insurrectionists are planning civil rights lawsuits. Unbelievable.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/24/trump-january-6-pardons-riot/
Trump’s night of the long knives, ousting 15 inspectors general violates federal law. No surprises there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/24/trump-fire-inspectors-general-federal-agencies/
The weekend Fox n Friends drunkard is now running the Pentagon.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/24/hegseth-confirmed-defense-secretary-senate-00200603
Five things to know about the new Defense Secretary. Or more aptly, 5 things you probably didn’t want to know about this person.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/24/pete-hegseth-what-we-know
Trump administration takes first anti-abortion move on world stage, signing onto a global, antiabortion pact. This sees America standing alongside countries like Uganda and Saudi Arabia, who as we all know are beacons of support for women’s reproductive rights. #sarcasm
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/24/trump-administration-anti-abortion-00200587
How does a political party get comfortable with the use of violence? How does a constitutional democracy drift toward authoritarianism? The answers are right in front of us. It’s happening in the United States.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/how-republicans-learned-to-excuse-political-violence-trump-january-6th-pardons
With a vote against Pete Hegseth, Mitch McConnell makes clear he will be an unreliable ally of Donald Trump.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/24/pete-hegseth-vote-mcconnell-006649
Was a US war with Denmark on anyone’s Trump 2.0 bingo card?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/denmark-in-crisis-mode-after-horrendous-phone-call-from-trump-20250125-p5l75l.html
What America and the world saw today was not a serious examination of a serious man. Instead, Republicans on the committee showed that they would rather elevate an unqualified and unfit nominee to a position of immense responsibility than cross Donald Trump, Elon Musk, or the most ardent Republican voters in their home states. America’s allies should be deeply concerned; America’s enemies, meanwhile, are almost certainly laughing in amazement at their unexpected good fortune.
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2025/01/the-hegseth-hearing-was-a-national-embarrassment/681315/?gift=otEsSHbRYKNfFYMngVFweDHFUrb8yD96rHh0mi1Ha6g&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
“A pact with the devil”
David de Jong on oligarchs getting in bed with fascists – compares US oligarchs sucking up to trump with the same situation involving German rich people with Hitler and Russian oligarchs with Putin.
https://www.publicnotice.co/p/david-de-jong-nazi-interview-trump-musk
The finding out phase begins, after the voters completely dropped the ball, giving him a second term.
https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-inauguration-2025-fafo
Happy birthday Cat , it was wonderful to see an older tennis player finally do her talent justice. She beat 4 top 10 players ; the first player , I believe since Evonne Goolagong in Wimbledon 1980, to beat 4 top 10 players to win a grand slam!
Evonne beat Mandlikova (#10), Turnbull (#6) , Austin (#2) and Evert ( surprisingly, #3).
So, objectively, amazing
Good Morning Confessions
Thanks for Sunday’s links.
The article about Trump threatening Greenland is interesting, but barely explores why Trump wants it, with this sentence.
“ Military experts say a significant presence in Greenland could give the US the upper hand in competition for control of areas of the Arctic Ocean exposed by melting sea ice.”
The clue is in the phrase about competition for control. With melting ice comes access to mineral wealth on land & sea.
Trump’s biggest backers want that wealth.
The US already has a military base on Greenland. Trump’s security concerns would only relate to security for his offshore oil rigs.
Trump’s mere threat to invade Greenland should require our government, as a US ally, and a friend of Denmark, to make it clear to Trump we do not support such an invasion.
Failure to stand against invading Greenland means tacit acceptance.
Do we support such bullying of friends? Are we really such wimps?
Good Morning Dawn Patrollers,
Sunday Edition
Reports of a Croc seen on a beach south of Bundaberg (about 250 kms south of normal croc territory). Going by the video, quite a specimen. I’d say about 3-4 metres.
Of note with this – Brisbane is about 350 k’s south of Bundy, Noosa about 250, & Hervey Bay 80
Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14323175/crocodile-sighting-locals-shocked.html
& here https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-24/crocodile-spotted-at-coonarr-beach-near-bundaberg/104857236
Premier Allan, out campaigning in Werribee yesterday, remains committed to the SRL, whilst being offered more Federal money for a separate line direct to the airport.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-remains-committed-to-suburban-rail-loop-amid-more-cash-for-airport-rail-20250125-p5l76e.html
David Crowe comments on a Resolve Political Monitor Survey in relation to community safety.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/safety-fears-and-antisemitism-concerns-over-gaza-20250124-p5l6xm.html
As mentioned yesterday regarding Grace Tame. I’ve added the Daily Mail version, only because it has comments. The Age/SMH & Guardian, decided not to allow comments.
Interestingly, the Australian hasn’t touched this issue …yet.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14323613/Australian-year-Anthony-Albanese-Grace-Tame.html
PM urges Dutton to chill out today
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2025/01/24/albanese-dutton-chill-australia
Interesting article by Bob McMullin on voting patterns in Australian states. Article is a couple of days old, but haven’t seen it covered here yet.
Link: https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2025/01/22/how-australian-states-vote
Clive Palmer emulates Musk to get Dutton elected. I have to be honest, this is all getting a bit ghastly.
Link: https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/clive-palmer-emulates-musk-to-get-dutton-elected,19366
Scott Morrison’s rorts advice released.
Link: https://michaelwest.com.au/scott-morrison-sports-rorts-advice-released/
Alarming article warning that “Trump camps are coming”.
There is a podcast attached to this link. Not a nice read, I’m afraid. Journo is Tim Dunlop
Link: https://michaelwest.com.au/trump-puts-american-immigrants-in-camps/
Perth gearing up to celebrate the Chinese New Year & welcome the year of the snake.
Chinese New year falls on Jan.29
Link: https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/year-of-the-snake-west-aussies-to-join-global-lunar-new-year-festivities–c-17483221
Mr Albanese to emphasize unity and calm, in the face of our changing world events.
Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-25/trump-disruptive-agenda-anthony-albanese-stability-election/104855712
As covered yesterday by the site, Sussan Ley overlooked. We’ll see I suppose, whether this issue smoulders away for Mr Dutton in the lead up to the election
Link: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-overlooks-deputy-in-surprise-frontbench-pick-creates-gender-parity-with-labor-20250125-p5l76d.html
& finally David Coleman gets (shadow) foreign affairs. Of note, he’s from the moderate wing.
https://theconversation.com/peter-duttons-reshuffle-david-coleman-the-surprise-choice-as-shadow-foreign-minister-248303
Bit of a polling update (of course, I can’t keep away from this):
• The Guardian Poll Tracker was updated 24-Jan. Their figures…
LNP 39.3
ALP 26.9
GRN 13.2
Others 20.6
Their 2PP LNP 53.1
Link: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/02/labor-v-the-coalition-who-is-leading-in-the-polls
• The Australian Electoral Forecast charts were updated 23-Jan. Their figures…
LNP 40
ALP 30.2
GRN 11.9
Others 17.9
Their 2PP LNP 51.5
Link: https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2025fed/nowcast/
Just a reminder, these are not new polls, they are aggregates of the current polls, similar to bludgertrack.
Have a great day everyone. Also, I’m pretty sure there is no Newspoll tonight. Should be next week before Parliament kicks off.
“Just a reminder, these are not new polls, they are aggregates of the current polls, similar to bludgertrack.”
Morning Irene: I keep pointing out this basic truth: the Guardian Poll Tracker is anything but. They take some polls, aggregate them and then put their own thumb on the scale.
Also the Australian Electoral Forecaster has Labor sitting a point below pollbludger and KB’s aggregator.
As you were.
Good morning Sunday Bludgers 🙂
My heartfelt thanks go out to Confessions and nadia88. My sleep-in this morning felt real good knowing I didn’t have to hop to it and report for duty myself.
If I were Grace Tame I would have been a bit cannier and had a t-shirt that said: ‘Muck Furdoch’ 😉
World News & Politics roundup:
Trump administration wants ‘regime change’ in the UK as Starmer replaces Trudeau as hate figure: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-wants-regime-change-113033167.html
EU military chief says it would make sense to put European troops in Greenland, Welt reports: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-military-chief-says-it-would-make-sense-put-european-troops-greenland-welt-2025-01-25/
The Central Intelligence Agency has assessed that the COVID-19 pandemic is “more likely” to have emerged from a lab rather than from nature, an agency spokesperson said on Saturday.
The agency had for years said it could not conclude whether COVID-19 was the result of a lab incident or it originated in nature. But in the final weeks of the Biden administration, former CIA Director William Burns asked CIA analysts and scientists to make a clear determination, stressing the pandemic’s historical significance, according to a senior U.S. official.
The CIA says it has “low confidence” in its assessment that a “research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely” and notes in its statement that both scenarios – lab origin and natural origin – remain plausible: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cia-now-says-covid-19-more-likely-have-come-lab-2025-01-25/
Keir Starmer is under growing pressure to forge closer economic links with Europe five years on from Brexit, as a major new poll shows voters clearly favour prioritising more trade with the EU over the US.
The MRP survey of almost 15,000 people by YouGov for the Best for Britain thinktank shows more people in every constituency in England, Scotland and Wales back closer arrangements with the EU rather than more transatlantic trade with Washington. MRP polls use large data samples to estimate opinion at a local level: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/25/move-closer-to-europe-not-trump-voters-tell-starmer-in-major-uk-poll
In a move that could supercharge the government’s deportation forces, the Trump administration late Thursday deputized thousands more federal law enforcement officers to arrest immigrants in the country illegally. Two agencies typically enforce the nation’s complex Title 8 immigration laws: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, in the country’s interior, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection at the nation’s borders. On Thursday, Department of Homeland Security Acting Secretary Benjamine Huffman expanded the universe of federal law enforcement officers who can investigate and apprehend immigrants. It wasn’t immediately clear how many officers would be reassigned to immigration enforcement: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/23/trump-deputizes-federal-agents-arrest-immigrants/77914576007/
Trump’s canceling of 50 security clearances is unprecedented and partisan, experts say
The move is meant to please Trump voters, punish perceived enemies and represents “the most politically saturated security action since the Oppenheimer case in the 1950s.”: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trumps-canceling-scores-security-clearances-unprecedented-rcna189245
Trump fires 17 government watchdogs in middle of the night – but a key one remains in his post –
‘Trump is dismantling checks on his power and paving the way for widespread corruption,’ Elizabeth Warren says: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-fires-inspectors-general-b2686265.html
About half of U.S. adults have an unfavorable view of Elon Musk, and an even larger share disapprove of President Trump relying on advice from billionaires to shape government policy, per new AP-NORC poll data. Why it matters: Musk is playing a central role in the Trump administration with the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which he has promised will revolutionize the U.S. government. But Americans are far from sold on the initiative and its leader: https://www.axios.com/2025/01/24/musk-doge-trump-billionaires-disapprove-poll
The Senate on Saturday approved the nomination of South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) to lead the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), putting her at the center of an administration focused heavily on immigration. The 59-34 vote to confirm Noem capped off a relatively smooth process even as other nominees face more intense scrutiny: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5106167-kristi-noem-dhs-secretary/
A mere week into Trump 2.0 and MAGA nation is already pushing for President Donald Trump’s face to be added to Mount Rushmore. The charge is being led by Trump aide Corey Lewandowski, who in a Friday appearance on a MAGA social media show raised the possibility as a more constitutional alternative to giving Trump a third term. “Some really smart congressman should go and say, Donald Trump’s face on Mount Rushmore,” Lewandowski told Benny Johnson, host of The Benny Show: https://www.thedailybeast.com/maga-demands-trump-be-immortalized-on-mount-rushmore-where-all-can-see/
Elon Musk made a surprise appearance during Germany’s AfD (Alternative fuer Deutschland) election campaign event in Halle in eastern Germany on Saturday, speaking publicly in support of the far right party for the second time in as many weeks. Addressing a hall of 4,500 people alongside party leader Alice Weidel, Musk spoke live via video link about preserving German culture and protecting the German people. “It’s good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything,” Musk said: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/elon-musk-appears-video-german-far-right-campaign-event-2025-01-25/
Does Grace Tame have questions to answer re the T-shirt affair?
Will she ever get invited to another Australia Day do at the Lodge?
Any polling, aggregate polling with a figure upwards of a 20% representing an undecided vote, and presents a two party preferred ratio is open to contention.
The “undecided” published results seem to remain higher than I seem to remember being the norm compared to previously published results.
The rationale for any breakdown of upwards of 20% non committed seems to suggest the margin of error would be something greater than is normal.
#weatheronPB
Cool, enticing day.
The sky is good company;
the air is easy.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 7:31 am
[Does Grace Tame have questions to answer re the T-shirt affair?]
[Will she ever get invited to another Australia Day do at the Lodge?]
Does Lars have questions to answer for mentioning the T-shirt and will he ever get an invite to any day at the Lodge or for that matter an invite to go anywhere?
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 7:31 am
Does Grace Tame have questions to answer re the T-shirt affair?
——————–
No why should she
Murdoch is s foreign media tycoon , who supports and controls the lib/nats
————
Will she ever get invited to another Australia Day do at the Lodge?
——————————
Why shouldn’t she
Labor will still likely be the federal government
No probs c@t, any time. Hope you had a good day yesterday too.
& Lars/C@t – Per Grace Tame.
The Australian has been silent on it. Deathly silent.
The other newspapers have given it a run, but I noticed they shut off their “comments” section.
The comments in the Daily Mail (I know it’s a silly rag), are not flattering of either Tame or the PM.