Three new polls, none of them terribly encouraging for a government no more than four months away from an election:
• Nine Newspapers bring us the first Resolve Strategic poll of the year, which more or less repeats its grim result for Labor from December – with the apparent addition of a two-party preferred measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences, which the pollster has traditionally eschewed such a thing. This has the Coalition leading 52-48, where a determination based on 2022 election preference flows would more likely be at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (steady). Peter Dutton is credited with a 39-34 lead as preferred prime minister, which I believe he is the first time he has led by more than one point on this measure from any pollster, compared with 35-35 last time. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have improved, up two on approval to 33% and down two on disapproval to 55%, but Peter Dutton’s have improved more, up four to 44% and down four to 38%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1616.
• The first Essential Research poll for the year has the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%, with a steady 5% undecided. The 2PP+ measure, which uses respondent-allocated preferences and does not distribute the undecided, is unchanged at 48% for the Coalition and 47% for Labor. The monthly leadership ratings find Anthony Albanese perking up with a six-point gain on approval to 45% and a five-point drop on disapproval, also to 45%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 42% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The “national mood” is better than it’s been since May 2023, with a seven-point increase since last month in the feeling that the country is headed in the right direction, with “wrong track” down five to 46%. The poll also finds 42% feel the standard of living of Indigenous people has improved over the past decade, with 34% saying it has remained the same and 15% that it has got worse. Forty per cent oppose a separate day for Indigenous recognition, with 30% favouring one separate from Australia Day and 19% favouring one in place of Australia Day. Forty-two per cent expressed support for TikTok to be banned unless sold to a non-Chinese company, down three on last March, with 27% opposed, up two. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on both the respondent-allocated and previous-election preference flow measures, the former out from 51.5-48.5 last week, the latter from 50.5-49.5. The primary votes are Labor 28.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 42% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 4% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1564.
Boerwar:
nadia’s around 36; you’re at least twice her age. You need to give her some slack.
___________________________________________
A belated happy birthday, Cat. Your DP is great.
Evening Been There! – we haven’t crossed paths for a while. Hope your summer holidays were good.
‘Diogenes says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 8:55 pm
Standing ovation for Neal Daniher.
Sadly he won’t be able to travel or speak much as AOTY but he is an inspiration.’
——————————
Yep.
Holdenhillbilly, you should acknowledge what it is that you’re cutting and pasting.
OK so Nadia88 slags Pocock repeatedly but is silent on Dutton who must be some sort of paragon of virtue in comparison.
“ A-E is wondering how come he completely missed Trump’s Greenland Gambit and what the global implications are for a NATO in which one of the members wages war on another member.”
______
I don’t think I’ve ever held back one my view that Trump is erratic. My further view is Trump is merely symptomatic of a greater malaise in shitsville. If the Canberra political establishment were not so stupid regarding the geopolitical realignment underway this century I’d be laughing my arse off at the shitstorm. Unfortunately first Julia (a little bit), Lucien Eye (a lot), ScoMo (totally) and even poor ole’ Albo and his cadre of seriously unwise foreign policy dilettantes in the leadership group put us on a hook that is totally 100% diametrically opposed to our national interests.
So, in between indulging in bouts of absolute schadenfreude over the plight of those parts of the anglosphere who have heeded Murdoch’s siren call to enshitten themselves I do worry about how the fuck we are going to get off said hook before it’s too late. Frankly, in this birth home of Rupert, I’m not sure we can. We probably deserve our fate under Dutton for birthing – and later exporting – Murdoch onto the wider world.
Reports Zuck caved to Trump because he was worried Trump will jail him.
The outcome of the T20 could be close tonight.
Almost looking like the best chance for an England win so far this tour. They need 162 on a flat strip.
The UK lost an empire.
Europe was an excellent solution.
They threw it away.
Now they have to accept they lost an empire.
What will become of little Britain?
Good to see Neale Daniher as Aussie of the year!
Surprised if there is not a Newspoll tomorrow being a election year.
Putin quoted today that he wants to meet Trump asap.Praised him.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:03 pm
…I do worry about how the fuck we are going to get off said hook before it’s too late.
…’
==============
Yep. It just does not look like the political class will do it off their own accord. We need a black swan event but not TOO much of a black swan event.
‘frednk says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:08 pm
The UK lost an empire.
Europe was an excellent solution.
They threw it away.
Now they have to accept they lost an empire.
What will become of little Britain?’
===================
But it is not little. It is the sixth largest economy in the world. This is the bit that truly puzzles me. If they can get back to something like evens in the EU trading bloc they will, IMO, go gangbusters.
‘pied piper says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:09 pm
Good to see Neale Daniher as Aussie of the year!
….’
====================
Yep.
“ What will become of little Britain?”
______
Little England, devolving to Northumbria, Mercia, East Anglia and Wessex.
Released hostage soldiers Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy, and Liri Albag have crossed the border into Israel, the IDF says. They were escorted out of the Gaza Strip by Israeli special forces after they were handed over to them by the Red Cross.
The IDF is bringing them to a facility near the border for an initial checkup and to meet with their parents for the first time after 477 days in Hamas captivity. The four are IDF surveillance soldiers who were kidnapped by Hamas terrorists from the Nahal Oz post during the October 7, 2023, onslaught.
Released hostage soldiers Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy, and Liri Albag are meeting with their parents at an IDF facility near Re’im, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says in a televised statement. “They are in safe hands and on their way home,” he says.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-january-25-2025/
“ Yep. It just does not look like the political class will do it off their own accord. We need a black swan event but not TOO much of a black swan event.”
Perhaps a half crazy Trumpy move, but not a fully cut one?
Hh
That’s great.
A-E Murdoch may have been born here but during the majority of his evil ways he had been an American. Can’t we just disown him?
I will be happy if trump gets Russia out of Ukraine and he doesn’t cause a depression.
As to the rest,,America deserves whatever they get, they voted for him.
Nadia had tennis over in 70 minutes.
Wrong about that too.
All good Nadia.
Apart from waiting for two new knees.
I’ll get there, just waiting my turn.
Refuse to get involved in the scam that is private health, it all went wrong under Howard and Labor just continued on, nothing to see here.
Hope your festive season was good.
“ Good to see Neale Daniher as Aussie of the year!
Surprised if there is not a Newspoll tomorrow being an election year.”
________
U could be right, PP, but I still think we are looking at 2 Feb.
An Australia Day Newspoll would be cool but unlikely to happen.
“ A-E Murdoch may have been born here but during the majority of his evil ways he had been an American. Can’t we just disown him?”
Given Levsion, and now the outcome of the latest defo settlement, perhaps we could cancel his entry rights into the country under the Chaarcter test. Same goes for foreigner Lachy. Pack them all off to their refugee hutment in Beverly Hills.
“We decide who comes here, and the terms on which they come!”.
Then – the divestment of Newscorpse.
I’ve been a keen tennis fan for more years than I’d like to admit. Having said that, Keys’ ground strokes are superb, especially her forehand. Win or lose tonight, she will have given her best.
Currently enjoying The Gold on Stan. Tv series about the biggest ever gold heist ever in London 1984. It’s not really about the heist itself but about the consequences of it . Highly recommend.
Sounds like a plan A-E. Harry may love us again if we do. Thinking ahead I wonder if Harry would be interested in becoming our first President ….
I hope Keys wins. She got rid of Collins
N88 you still think it’s going to be a slim minority government for Labor I still think it’s gonna be no major party forming government especially Peters f****** brilliant idea about a government efficiency board you know the Labour Party is going to get the scare campaign out of that
I’m sure that scrapping all private health rebates and directing them into the public health system would make for a better world for most Australians.
Same as private school funding regarding education.
Am I wrong?
Duttons govt efficiency board FFS. She will probably cut indigenous funding first. Everyone with half a brain knows its code for Austerity.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:01 pm
OK so Nadia88 slags Pocock repeatedly but is silent on Dutton who must be some sort of paragon of virtue in comparison.
===================================
Yeah, he’s treacherous. You want to support someone like that, go for it.
Go and check his parliamentary voting record – block, block, block.
And idiots like him have brought this elected gov’t to it’s knees, and by blocking has created an atmosphere of paralysis and subsequently brought the ALP primary down to the level it is.
Per Dutton – I’ve repeatedly said his nuclear policy is fantasy land. There won’t be one nuclear reactor built in Australia in our lifetimes. His plan is code speak for maintaining coal, gas & oil.
If he gets in, he’ll demand the states build reactors. If the states refuse, his Federal environment minister will keep on approving existing coal & gas mines. That’s where it’s heading.
As for worrying about why voters don’t GAF – go and ask the pollsters.
As soon as the incoming Labor gov’t realised they were dealing with loonies in the Senate, they should have forced the issue via the DD mechanism by racking up DD triggers. If Pocock & the Greens & Lambie want to side with the LNP & PHON, then Albo should’ve been there to remind the public.
He didn’t, and we’re at this stage we are today. Sub 30 primaries turning up on this site like fairy dust.
Mavis – 37, in a couple of weeks.
David
I also hope Keys wins.
Love an underdog in any sport.
I was worried that she might have played her final the other night but she’s had a good crack tonight.
Rossmcg:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:15 pm
[‘Nadia had tennis over in 70 minutes.
Wrong about that too.’]
Yet another old codger who should know better. Relatively young posters should be encouraged, not put down – constructive criticism, yes!
It’s going down to the wire Rossmcg
[‘Mavis – 37, in a couple of weeks. Not too sure if you tried a sledge either, I hope you weren’t !’]
On the contrary, nadia.
the stooge targeting of nadia has been more than unfortunate. Fortunately she has some fortitude and hasn’t been driven away.
COME ON Keys break serve
Darn the champion is good.
One more chance to break serve. I’m
Hey Nadia, keep doing what you’re doing. You’re doing fine. Despite what some think, you’re under no obligation to act as the cheerleader for any politician or party.
Been Theresays:
Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:16 pm
[Apart from waiting for two new knees.]
Good onya, it’s worth the wait
Yes all the best for the new knees Been There.
All good my end.
Boerwar & I differ on Pocock.
He has his opinion, I mine.
Boer – have a scroll through the recent Victoria threads, or better still the old QLD threads, and you’ll see how & who I interact with on this site. They’re posters with a good grip on politics, and not consumed with conspiracy rabbit holes.
Pseph stuff great. Petty & frivolous arguments not good.
It’s c@t’s birthday, and we’ve descended into conspiracy holes on her birthday.
Scroll through tonight’s rubbish pls c@t. Back to politics.
Enough tonight. Evening all.
Hmm.how odd. Last year and 2023 before then, it was Boer who was railing against Pocock for blocking stuff, like a bit of Labor’s IR reforms.
However I kept reminding him that Pocock presently owns a Liberal senate seat, so ANY deal on ANY bit of legislation with him is exactly 100% better than Labor could have expected to have gotten with Zed – or would get with a LNP replacement. This is the same calculus as would be with the Teals in a minority Labor government – any deal on individual pieces of legislation – is better than them being replaced with a LNP MP in a Dutton government.
But calling a DD election in a tantrum wouldn’t have fixed anything IMO.
The real problem is that we are living through a populist shitstorm in tight economic times. Every two bit political charlatan can sell snake oil and easy shibboleths – each shaving off a few points the poor mugs in the sensible centre trying to actually get shit done. A DD ain’t going to change that. For what it;s worth – even though I don’t agree with his petite bourgeoise POV on many policy areas (especially IR), I think Pocock is one of the good guys in the sensible centre. Same goes for most of the Teals in the lower house.
In a sad and perverse way, watching the potential unwinding the the USA in just one week is fascinating.
While many of us thought we could see what was coming, many (like me I hope) wants a strong, liberal caring US as world leader.
Looks like this is on hold for at least 4 years – if anything is left after 4 years.
It is enlightening too, to see Oz and even on PB, we have our share of crypto-Trumpist hoping Dutton will drag us in the same direction.
This might be a bit of plus for Albanese when, in a few months, things in the US may descend into chaos.
Being calm, collected and on in charge might just be the ticket.
OC
A very belated many thanks for this background.
On the trinity, have you ever seen “Nun’s on the Run”? I loved Eric Idle’s explanations to the girls he was teaching, particularly explaining the mystery of the Trinity as being like a clover.
I hope Centre had a bob on each way in the tennis so that he came out in front….
Well done Maddison. 🙂
Splendid win, Keys. Now she can put in the past her 2017 loss in the US Open. And it is not a bad pay cheque: $US $2.198,928.
When recently has the US been a liberal, caring world leader? Their govt’s consistently neglect and dehumanise people, including their own citizens, which is a major part of the reason they are where they are now. We’re on the same path just a little bit behind.
Thanks Goll and David.