The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor bouncing back three points on the primary vote after a four-point slump last time, to 31%, with the Coalition down a point to 34%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up two to 9%, with the undecided component down a point to 5%. Labor’s improvement does not flow through to the 2PP+ measure, on which the Coalition’s lead shifts from 48-46 to 49-47. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1131.
Further results offer particularly interesting results on the US election, finding a distinctly narrow lead for Kamala Harris of 41% to 33% for Donald Trump when respondents were asked how they would vote if they could. Even more strikingly, respondents were uniformly positive in relation to four of Trump’s key talking points: 60% agreed that “globalisation has gone too far, we need to protect local workers with tariffs on foreign goods”, with only 11% disagreeing; 59% that “government is fundamentally corrupt and politics has been taken over by vested interests”, with 15% disagreeing; 59% that “a deep state of unelected officials has too much control”, with 10% disagreeing; and 59% that “illegal immigrants should be deported”, with 19% disagreeing. Conversely, 41% felt abortion should be legal in all cases, 38% in most, 14% illegal in most cases, and only 7% illegal in all cases.
Substantial majorities also rated that politicians should not accept complimentary flight upgrades and access to airline lounges, sporting events and concerts. Essential Research executive director Peter Lewis connects the dots in an analysis piece for The Guardian:
Regardless of the US result, what does all this mean for Albanese’s Labor? Winning power at a time when people have lost faith in government is a poisoned chalice; in your success you become the problem. This is why the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge allegations against the prime minister have had such salience; the idea that those in control have special access and special privileges feeds this populist backlash.
Of course nadia88 – someone does have to govern, but do you choose to sip from the cup?
Labor would be the logical option with a green/ independent/ teal cross bench. It would be unstable unless there was some form of government ageeement entered into.
It would actually be the beginnings of a proto European coalition agreement negotiation after the election numbers are clear.
Lars Von Trier @ #851 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 4:19 pm
Which, of course, Labor would sook about … but eventually do.
You mean “Labor will govern alone or not at all “ is a situational promise player 1?
Good. JA has a spine.
Crazy unpopular premier who is paying this back ? on top of whats below.
Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. The 2024–25 Victorian Budget forecasts net debt will grow from $156.2 billion on 30 June 2025 ( $3.3 billion higher than the 2023–24 Budget Update forecast) to $187.8 billion by 30 June 2028. This reflects annual an average growth rate of 6.3% per year
.10 May 2024
Arrogance to assume labor federally cannot lose except minority.The Trend says otherwise for almost 18 months now.
Albo is hated throughout australia.
Opposition Transport Minister Bridget McKenzie said the prime minister had more questions to answer.?????????
Watching that women asking the P.M. questions in Question time, then having to sit down and be
made to look bloody fool, is the highlight of my DAY !
Lars Von Trier @ #853 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 4:23 pm
Let’s just call it an “ambit claim”, shall we? 🙂
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 3:09 pm
Steve IS Boxer nadia88, always loyal to Napoleon.
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There are quite a few ‘Boxers’ around. Didn’t he end up in a knackery?
It’ll deliver 70,000 new homes, giving young Victorians the chance to live where they grew up.
Jacinta Allan
@JacintaAllanMP
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I’m a big supporter of the SRL but that is a bit of a stretch!
Yes Dave and Squealer used the money from the knackers to buy a ticket upgrade.
No, sorry that’s wrong- it was a case of whiskey.
Bandt, Greens accused of undermining national security
Adam Bandt has voted for just 6 per cent of government counter-terrorism and national security bills that went to a division during his 14 years in parliament, new research reveals.The oz now.
Australia haters!
Because, of course, Napoleon would have never paid for an upgrade
It’s amazing the amount of Astro-Turf complaints about the SRL, yet not a peep from the same people about the Westgate Tunnel or the North-East Link. Anything for cars, gets waved through – those people just hate the idea of good public transport…
Alpha Zero @ #863 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 5:37 pm
Add the many that forget this is only stage 1 and say nowhere to nowhere
Gosh we needed a poll.
Latest Resolve Poll
Sample – circa 1600
Poll Period: TBA
* ALP 30% (no change)
* LNP 39% (up 1)
* GRN 11% (down 1)
* PHON 5% (no change)
* Others/Indies 15% (no change)
No 2pp provided
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Edit: Preferred PM 37% evens
Is tonight the night for the dirty thirty on newspoll nadia88?
Don’t know if we’ll have a Newspoll tonight Lars. We could have, I honestly don’t know.
Last time we had two polls in the one evening was back in late June.
I’m assuming they maybe arrange to space things out a bit amongst themselves.
Anyway, just a rough 2PP calc – this poll looks like a 50.7 to 49.3 split in favour of the LNP.
I’ll await WB or others.
You could be write nadia88 only 6 weeks to Christmas – so only 2 newspolls left this yr.
1934Pc @ #860 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 4:28 pm
Has Bridgey answered the question of exactly how many upgrades SHE got yet and from which airlines? 😐
Lars Von Trier @ #855 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 4:19 pm
And a Coalition-Teals-Greens governing coalition would be perfectly stable. 😐
Because the Coalition are unlikely to govern in majority.
“Albo is hated throughout australia.”
Rubbish as usual.
BK @ #846 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 3:22 pm
You have Rebekha Sharkie’s ear, BK. Why don’t you tell her as much?
C@t
I often see Rebekha and her family but rarely talk about politics, only issues. She has been an exceptional representative for her electorate, always visible and available to help.
C@t
Strategic voting is the right thing to do when one sees that one’s natural choice has no chance of winning one needs to think hard and strong as to who would best serve the electorate whilst not significantly aligning to one’s natural “enemy”.
Nationals urge Dutton to revisit net zero following Trump win
Peter Dutton is facing pressure from Nationals MPs to reconsider the Coalition’s support for net zero by 2050, as the Labor plays down the significance of the world’s biggest economy likely pulling out of the Paris Agreement
Newspoll watch.
Alpha Zero @ #863 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 5:37 pm
It’s amazing the amount of Astro-Turf complaints about the SRL, yet not a peep from the same people about the Westgate Tunnel or the North-East Link. Anything for cars, gets waved through – those people just hate the idea of good public transport…
_____________________
Alpha must have me blocked.
Bridget McKenzie recently updated her register of interests and has now declared 16 previously unreported upgrades. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/bridget-mckenzie-admits-16-free-flight-upgrades/104556596
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham re Resolve:
No 2PP mentioned, my last-election conversion 50.1 to L-NP (+1.1)
The Age 10/11
We have set the range of the project for $30 to $34.5 billion … and the project is tracking very well against time and budget.”
In September, Labor revealed the cost of its Metro Tunnel rail project had blown out by another $837 million, pushing the total bill beyond $15 billion. In May, the Commonwealth agreed to chip in an extra $3.25 billion into Melbourne’s North East Link after its cost jumped by more than $10 billion to $26 billion.
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Using the North East Link blow out factor of 1.6x we get $55 billion. But it could end up closer to 2x.
That’s just for Stage 1.
Luigi Smith @ #879 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 7:26 pm
16? My, that’s quite a number.
The boxers are out and about braying before newspoll.
TaylorMade wants us to get around town Jetsons style
The US company behind MYKI upgrade is believed to be exiting the field realised that state labor in VIC are socialist nut jobs no doubt.
We need to give credit to the LNP for choosing their cleanest member to critique Albanese on his upgrades.
The braying was done by Benjamin who was the only one who knew what was going on. Boxer just neighed.
BK
Another friend of mine lives in the Adelaide Hills and votes for Rebekha Sharkie for the same reasons. He sees her as a hard working and effective local MP.
1934Pc: “Opposition Transport Minister Bridget McKenzie said the prime minister had more questions to answer.?????????
Watching that women asking the P.M. questions in Question time, then having to sit down and be
made to look bloody fool, is the highlight of my DAY !”
——————————————————————————-
I’m not sure how this could have been the highlight of any day, given that Bridget McKenzie is a senator and therefore never has the opportunity to ask the PM any questions anywhere.
“ The US company behind MYKI upgrade is believed to be exiting the field realised that state labor in VIC are socialist nut jobs no doubt.”
================================================
Internationally many cities are moving to apps that can be installed on smart phones for PT ticketing. Simply swipe and pay. There is no need to pay hundreds of millions to develop IT systems for it any more. Waste of money.
What I find slightly amusing about Rebekah Sharkie is that her middle name used to be Che (I believe she might have had Communist parents) but at some time in the past few years she quietly changed it to Carina.
Fair enough, I reckon. Che was a pretty nasty and brutal communist whose high reputation is based almost entirely on one really great photo.
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 7:52 pm
The braying was done by Benjamin who was the only one who knew what was going on. Boxer just neighed.
________
Post of the day 🙂
Storms imminent for Brisbane viewers.
resolve looks like a 3.5% swing on primary votes to the Coalition from 2022- with a marked detioration in Victoria.
7% decline in primary in vic since Dec 2023 and 5% decline in NSW in same time according to Resolve.
BKsays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 7:03 pm
C@t
Strategic voting is the right thing to do when one sees that one’s natural choice has no chance of winning one needs to think hard and strong as to who would best serve the electorate whilst not significantly aligning to one’s natural “enemy”.
___________________________________________________
BK – you seem like a very very sensible person. Who fed this this rubbish?
In CPV system, if one’s natural choice has no chance of winning, then no harm is done by voting 1 for them, and 2 for your next preferred, 3 for the preferred after that. One day, many people in your electorate might agree with you and your preferred choice will come in the top two, and if it is half close with the winner, then the next time, the party of your natural choice will make your seat a Target seat, and expend resources campaigning to try and win it.
If you all vote strategically, the party of your natural choice will never pay any attention to your electorate. Is that the outcome you want??
JUST VOTE 1 FOR YOUR MOST PREFERRED CANDAITE – IT’S THAT SIMPLE
By comparison Newspoll has seen a net change in primary of 4 points from Labor to the LNP (subject to tonight’s poll)
Shame Scott doesnt come around anymore – he was so irrepressibly Labor it was infectious, bullied off by Asha and Wat Tyler.
Just finished watching the cricket. Pakistan are an impressive young side, well coached by proud Kamilaroi (or Gamilaaray) man Jason Gillespie. .
I’m really not sure how to describe the Australian side. It wasn’t Australia A, because they’ve just wrapped up a win in Melbourne. Australia B perhaps?
Whatever they were, they were no bloody good. We seem to have decided to tank the last two ODIs. I’m not sure why.
Not be able to tap your credit card on public transport is bit shit.
Stacking any Aussie team with WAers and Vics is never going to work