US election late counting

Democrats are still a slight chance to gain control of the House despite a popular vote deficit. Also covered: upcoming Irish and German elections.

12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.

1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.

2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.

4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.

12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.

2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.

4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.

In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.

2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.

In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.

3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.

4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election.  Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris.  Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California.  Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.

You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation.  The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state.  Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia.  Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception).  If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.

Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in.  Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199.  If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212.  However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting.  So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.

If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9.  While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.

Irish election: November 29

Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections.  At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates.  This election was called before it was due in March 2025.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.  After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included.  The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG.  This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.

Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election

After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats.  However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.

German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats.  But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.

469 comments on “US election late counting”

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  1. Matt Gaetz does GOP a ‘great service’ as he resigns from Congress: House Speaker

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has already resigned from Congress — a strategic move meant to help the party find a quick replacement— after President-elect Donald Trump nominated him for attorney general, according to House Speaker Mike Johnson.

    https://www.rawstory.com/matt-gaetz-2669872952/

  2. Interesting about the Rubio appointment that, if confirmed (I expect so) , he will have to resign from the Senate, meaning his Florida seat will be filled by someone appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is term-limited and cannot run for re-election in 2026. Perhaps he might use this opportunity to advance his career and appoint himself. Or maybe, to avoid the risk of any backlash, he appoints some no-name staffer/party activist who has no ambition to seek re-election in their own right to serve out the term until the special election, and he runs for the seat then? Either way, I’ll be watching what DeSantis does because I don’t think he’s ready to retire into private life once his current term ends.

  3. It seems that Musk is wearing out his welcome at Mar-a-Lago.

    Musk has been so aggressive in pushing his views about Trump’s second term that he’s stepping on the toes of Trump’s transition team and may be overstaying his welcome at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida, according to two people familiar with the transition who have spent time at the resort over the past week.

    The sources said Musk’s near-constant presence at Mar-a-Lago in the week since Election Day had begun to wear on people who’ve been in Trump’s inner circle longer than he has and who see him as overstepping his role in the transition. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly.

    “He’s behaving as if he’s a co-president and making sure everyone knows it,” one of the people said.

    “And he’s sure taking lots of credit for the president’s victory. Bragging about America PAC and X to anyone who will listen. He’s trying to make President Trump feel indebted to him. And the president is indebted to no one,” this person added.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-trump-donald-mar-a-lago-appointment-position-rcna179826

  4. This article by Grattan explains how Murdoch is trying to damage the Albanese government via a confected “outrage” over Rudd’s appointment as ambassador to US. This theme is now being pushed by Dutton two days after he expressed full support for Rudd’s ambassadorial role.

    The furore over Australia’s ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd, is a “self-licking ice cream” created by some at Sky News, former defence chief and former ambassador to the United States, Dennis Richardson says.

    Richardson that the whipping up of the issue was driven by a combination of personal and political motives: to have Rudd removed from his post and to get at the Albanese government.

    He said the Australian government should do “precisely nothing” in response, except to express its confidence in the ambassador, who had been doing “an outstanding job”, working across the aisle in Washington.

    Richardson, highly respected on both sides of politics, previously headed ASIO (1996–2005), the foreign affairs department (2010-12) and the defence department (2012-17).

    He was ambassador to Washington in 2005–10.

    https://citynews.com.au/2024/rudd-furore-a-self-licking-ice-cream-says-former-us-envoy/

  5. The vote comes a day after president-elect, Donald Trump, chose Mike Huckabee as the next US ambassador to Israel.

    It is expected the Trump administration will take a more pro-Israel approach to the conflict between Israel and Palestinians, as it did in its last term.

    Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, is known for his pro-Israel views in the conflict and has previously said Israel has a rightful claim to the West Bank, which he refers to by its Hebrew and biblical name of Judea and Samaria.

    Trump also announced Marco Rubio as his secretary of state. Shortly after the 7 October attacks on southern Israel by the Palestinian militant group, Hamas, Rubio posted on X that Israel “must respond disproportionately” and that there could be “no ceasefire, negotiated solution or peaceful coexistence” while Hamas existed.

    This is as lamentable as it is predictable. From The Guardian today. The Reactionary Christian Right, with whom Nicholas has aligned himself, have been vehemently opposed to the Democratic Party since they began to organise politically in the 1980s. They are hoping for an End-of-Days calamity. In their own way the outer-left also hope for end times….for the preface to the destruction of capitalism. This is neo-Leninist. The Christians are neo-Passionist. The future, however, is simply for more and more repression.

  6. Dudes. I just signed up to bluesky. I wasn’t a big Twitter twit but not gonna have nuthin to do with a company run by a tool. A No Tesla policy too.

    No, this isn’t an anti Trump thing. I’ve defended Silver from those who slander his association with someone associated with Trump. This is actually a nod to the socialist part of my brain. Nobody and no entity should have unchecked power. It is insane to give one person or company control over something that is too big to fail or impossible to regulate and/or does not operate in a fair and properly competitive market. Companies strive to make it happen, the people shouldn’t let them. Starlink, Twitter are prime examples but even just the extreme wealth he has gained (regardless of the merit) is undemocratic and anti competitive. So, in fact, this is also a nod to the free market part of my brain.

    So go bluesky peeps!

  7. even just the extreme wealth he has gained (regardless of the merit) is undemocratic

    The wealth itself is okay. It’s the part about being able to casually drop $100+ million (or $40.1+ billion, if you’re going to count Twitter as a political play) on political shenanigans that’s problematic. Normal citizens have no hope of competing with that level of influence, though their opinion and their vote should (notionally) count just as much as Elon’s.

    So…campaign finance reform. Cap political spending to some amount that an average person can afford, and ban all contributions from nonpersons (companies, large and small). Let Elon have his wealth, and let him spend it on normal things like yachts, islands, and private jets.

  8. Team Katich @ #457 Friday, November 15th, 2024 – 7:25 am

    Dudes. I just signed up to bluesky. I wasn’t a big Twitter twit but not gonna have nuthin to do with a company run by a tool. A No Tesla policy too.

    No, this isn’t an anti Trump thing. I’ve defended Silver from those who slander his association with someone associated with Trump. This is actually a nod to the socialist part of my brain. Nobody and no entity should have unchecked power. It is insane to give one person or company control over something that is too big to fail or impossible to regulate and/or does not operate in a fair and properly competitive market. Companies strive to make it happen, the people shouldn’t let them. Starlink, Twitter are prime examples but even just the extreme wealth he has gained (regardless of the merit) is undemocratic and anti competitive. So, in fact, this is also a nod to the free market part of my brain.

    So go bluesky peeps!

    I quit actively posting on Twitter in 2023. I had previously been on and off the platform before (I previously held some other issues with the platform) but, in my final run, I initially tolerated Elon’s takeover because, meh, it’s big tech; my money’s always going into some shitty rich dude’s pocket (or, in this case, the ad revenue) regardless. However, after his endless tinkering with and gutting of the site, as well as his stupid new policies, I had enough.

    I subsequently kept an anonymous alt that I used for lurking purposes just to follow news and politics feeds, so I could be informed. However, my feed became increasingly filled with engagement harvesting accounts (AI art, meme bots, stolen viral images etc.), porn accounts and, in the lead up to the election, MAGA blue tick accounts. Even more concerning was how, in the last two weeks before the election, how much I was suddenly bombarded with pro-Israel/Jewish accounts for Trump and, when muting those, suddenly bombarded with pro-Palestinian accounts for Trump/Stein or against Harris.

    I decided at some point among all this that I had to delete the account once the election is done, as this was not an informative or good experience. I also realised that, even by giving my eyes to the site, I am adding to that shameless, vile narcissist’s wealth by whatever modicum he receives through ad views.

    So, once it was called for Trump, I deactivated my account and I salted the earth by changing the password to something I won’t remember and removing the Twitter from my 2 step identification app (so when Twitter asks for the code if I tried to log in, I wouldn’t be able to retrieve it), so I will never be able to give in to any temptation to log back in. I suppose it doesn’t stop me from creating a new account but at least I’d have to put enough effort in that I have time to think about what I am doing.

    I have since joined Bluesky. I am still getting the hang of it and haven’t been that active but it’s miles better than current Twitter and much more ethical.

  9. Team Katich @ #457 Friday, November 15th, 2024 – 7:55 am

    Dudes. I just signed up to bluesky. I wasn’t a big Twitter twit but not gonna have nuthin to do with a company run by a tool. A No Tesla policy too.

    No, this isn’t an anti Trump thing. I’ve defended Silver from those who slander his association with someone associated with Trump. This is actually a nod to the socialist part of my brain. Nobody and no entity should have unchecked power. It is insane to give one person or company control over something that is too big to fail or impossible to regulate and/or does not operate in a fair and properly competitive market. Companies strive to make it happen, the people shouldn’t let them. Starlink, Twitter are prime examples but even just the extreme wealth he has gained (regardless of the merit) is undemocratic and anti competitive. So, in fact, this is also a nod to the free market part of my brain.

    So go bluesky peeps!

    I signed up the other day, but only because Threads has turned out to be a dud and people I followed on X were leaving the platform for Bluesky.

  10. Just looking at late counting numbers and the popular vote gap is closing. It won’t be enough to give Harris the lead, of course, but it’s narrowing nonetheless.

    I know popular vote is completely trivial and I don’t want to sound like I am spinning the election results as anything but a bad result for Democrats but if Trump’s final vote share can fall below 50% so he just has a plurality, instead of a majority, it would be a very tiny solace for me.

  11. Trump won everything!

    After confidently predicting Trump was ‘toast,’ Michael Moore lashes out at Americans: ‘Not a good people’
    Before Trump victory, Moore cheered his fellow citizens: ‘Majority of Americans do not want this divisiveness’Fox now.

    Lefties hate their own people prefer china dictators etc.

    Cannot wait for the White house pressers where the biased leftie media act like spoiled children with their rattle taken way..

  12. Being away overseas for the 1st half of November I was preserved from either reading or contributing to the USA threads.

    I did today dip into the election night thread where the results were coming in and showing ever more in favour of Trump to the point he won.

    The lack of graciousness on the part of the losers who backed Harris wholeheartedly, who chose instead to continue their bile in the face of defeat and to blame ‘voters’, speaks volumes about nobody but themselves. This place seems as at the heart of global bigotry and intolerance (from the same people) as anywhere, a lot of it motivated by hatred of Christianity at its root I perceive.

    Being away for an extended period had made me realise how good it was for my brain and what a cesspit this place was, notwithstanding the interesting articles we get. So I’m off again, for my own health (selfish?) benefit. I will still check for new articles on both Ozzie and International polls.

    It will be interesting to see if GOP have enough reps to effectively govern in the House when all is said and done and the reps chosen by Trump have resigned their seats.

    Trump’s swings in NY and NJ were impressive, and Harris did in fact succeed in lower-than-average swings against her in most of the 7 swing states. Only Arizona was on par with the national swing against her, Nevada not too far off.

    Had the swing that occurred in NJ occurred elsewhere it would have delivered Minnesota, New Hampshire and NE-2 to Trump, and evens chance of New Mexico and Virginia.

    Had the swing that occurred in NY occurred elsewhere it would have delivered all of the above, and Colorado and Illinois might have been looking interesting.

    But what actually happened was Trump piled up votes in states that didn’t flip: Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Virginia and various smaller states. This delivered him a popular vote victory even whilst the result was determined by small margins again in the key states. Of the 7 hyper-marginal states, only Arizona was won by a margin >3.2%.

    With hindsight, Trump should have been visiting New Hampshire (2.8% Harris) not New Mexico (6.1% even after his visit) in that last week.

  13. The lack of graciousness on the part of the losers who backed Harris wholeheartedly, who chose instead to continue their bile in the face of defeat and to blame ‘voters’, speaks volumes about nobody but themselves.

    I don’t see how anyone can straight-facedly make a statement like that about Harris supporters given how Trump and a large number of his supporters were still kicking and screaming about “election fraud” and “stolen election” over his thumping 2020 loss all the way into 2024. Whatever kernel of a point you might have there is completely drowned out by the gigantic double-standard it takes to make it.

    But okay, it’s Kamala’s supporters that are the bitter and bile-filled ones. Sure. Get back to me when they’re storming the Capitol.

  14. if Trump’s final vote share can fall below 50% so he just has a plurality, instead of a majority, it would be a very tiny solace for me.

    Your wish has been granted.

  15. https://apple.news/ASSg–TIxRIihMR-TgEYzqw, of delusions and bubbles? “… congenitally incapable of getting its head out of its rump and caring about ordinary people’s lives, allowing people to speak without censorship, listening to and believing their frustrations, defending liberty and equality, and taking direct meaningful action on fair and universal solutions to actually existing, real-world systemic problems in the U.S. That’s it; that’s what needs to be done, and it’s the only serious answer. Stop blaming everyone else for what the party failed to do.“

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