The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor bouncing back three points on the primary vote after a four-point slump last time, to 31%, with the Coalition down a point to 34%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up two to 9%, with the undecided component down a point to 5%. Labor’s improvement does not flow through to the 2PP+ measure, on which the Coalition’s lead shifts from 48-46 to 49-47. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1131.
Further results offer particularly interesting results on the US election, finding a distinctly narrow lead for Kamala Harris of 41% to 33% for Donald Trump when respondents were asked how they would vote if they could. Even more strikingly, respondents were uniformly positive in relation to four of Trump’s key talking points: 60% agreed that “globalisation has gone too far, we need to protect local workers with tariffs on foreign goods”, with only 11% disagreeing; 59% that “government is fundamentally corrupt and politics has been taken over by vested interests”, with 15% disagreeing; 59% that “a deep state of unelected officials has too much control”, with 10% disagreeing; and 59% that “illegal immigrants should be deported”, with 19% disagreeing. Conversely, 41% felt abortion should be legal in all cases, 38% in most, 14% illegal in most cases, and only 7% illegal in all cases.
Substantial majorities also rated that politicians should not accept complimentary flight upgrades and access to airline lounges, sporting events and concerts. Essential Research executive director Peter Lewis connects the dots in an analysis piece for The Guardian:
Regardless of the US result, what does all this mean for Albanese’s Labor? Winning power at a time when people have lost faith in government is a poisoned chalice; in your success you become the problem. This is why the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge allegations against the prime minister have had such salience; the idea that those in control have special access and special privileges feeds this populist backlash.
Losers always need a target to blame – that’s why Trump does so well with the disenfranchised working white men in America. They’ve gone from an era when every single aspect of society was tailored to making their lives easy, to an era where now women, minorities and migrants can – shock, horror – compete on somewhat level footing. So they lash out and vote Trump. Well, that’s the price we pay for progress.
Twinstudy – you do realise the biggest shift by race was a 30% swing towards trump by Latino men.
Things didn’t change much among whites from 2020, and in some states Kamala actually did better among whites than Biden did.
This kind of dialogue is just counterproductive for us on the left. In a US context, the Democrats have lost against Trump twice and nearly did in 2020 as well, their strategies do not work well with the broader electorate. Talking about actions and policies are far more productive than identity politics as we are brutally learning again and again.
If you want to talk specifically about the appeal of the right to the men, masculinity is important, particularly it seems among Gen z. Steven Miles presented as very masculine which I think was part of the secret to his social media success among young men, and young women liked him too for his progressive policies. I was really struck by the hypothetical polling here in Australia about the US election, where trump was ahead among young men (despite 18-29 voting very left here), and I think it comes back to masculinity. We can deride this and talk about how it is shallow and wrong all day, but we aren’t changing it, so we need to take it onboard as the broader left.
I wonder if the Federal ALP polling was showing exactly what happened in the US is happening to them and that’s why they had the ridiculous Not-a-Campaign-Launch last weekend and the release of the unneeded changes to the HECS-HELP system?
From the US election thread:-
FUBARsays:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 3:39 am
I wonder if FUBAR is a little miffed that Dutton didn’t get in first with the changes to HECS ?
Twinstudysays:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 1:13 am
Losers always need a target to blame – that’s why Trump does so well with the disenfranchised working white men in America. They’ve gone from an era when every single aspect of society was tailored to making their lives easy, to an era where now women, minorities and migrants can – shock, horror – compete on somewhat level footing. So they lash out and vote Trump. Well, that’s the price we pay for progress.
——————–
Trump picked up swings from black men and latino men but you just single out white men.
Just to prove that Australia isn’t immune to the influence of total idiots up steps Dick Smith.
“For 15 minutes on Sunday morning, ABC local radio listeners were treated to a rant from Dick Smith as the millionaire attacked Australia’s transition away from fossil fuels, claiming renewables would make electricity unaffordable and cause sweeping blackouts.”
The man is a total moron, if he bothered to get into his helicopter & fly the length of the storm damaged power lines he’d see the real cause of the blackout.. GLOBAL WARMING
Despite the result – fabulous coverage of the USA election from the US Public Broadcasting Service on SBS Australia.
An intelligent panel of political journalists, with only two political staffers, including a very lucid Republican.
The Wall, actually worked and could be seen clearly on a television screen.
I would hope that Australian media looks at how an election coverage can be gripping, entertaining and thoughtful and emulate the PBS method for future election coverage, here in Australia.
As I never watch commercial election coverage, I think it would be something for the ABC to emulate.
Apart, from the the two major party operatives, it was a politician free zone.
Congratulations to ABC for using the Associated Press coverage – but they could have saved the airfares for Speiersy & Sarah, based on the very limited viewing I saw on ABC television.
I agree about the excellent PBS coverage of the U.S election on SBS, well informed and comprehensive, way better than the ABC’s cavalcade of talking heads.
One thing is for sure, the next Democrat candidate for President will be a centrist white man, the whole woman thing has failed for them twice now in the last 8 years.
Peter Lewis has done a great job with Essential Research, but I rarely find myself in agreement with his analysis.
He’s sort of half right here.
“Caught between casting Trump as weird and fascist while he bros out with Joe Rogan, the Democrats have allowed themselves to occupy a lonely centre ground and defend a system that few voters find appealing. It’s easy, entertaining and much more fun to dump on Trump’s foppery than explaining, and then addressing, the power imbalances of US technology, the military industrial complex and the economic model that supports them.”
The second part of that paragraph is just the usual lefty sort of nonsense about the military industrial complex (a term that I believe was actually coined by Republican President Eisenhower, but never mind about that). However, I agree that the centre ground is looking a bit lonely for the Dems at the moment, and that their failure to energise their base in comparison to Trump’s massive appeal to the Republican base was at the root of their defeat.
But the other missing ingredient for the Dems in this election – and, for that matter in 2016 – was a strong candidate. Harris ran an excellent campaign under difficult circumstances, but she was never a candidate able to mobilise the voters in the way that that Clinton was in 1992 or Obama in 2008. Both of these men were centrists, but they also persuaded the more left-leaning Dem base that they were strong, focused leaders who would be dedicated to pushing through significant reforms.
Harris was unable to do this. Not because she wasn’t a good political performer, but to a significant extent because of the story of how she got to the leadership. While the media was very kind to Harris, and never recounted the story after she became the candidate, I’m sure a lot of the voters remembered it. They remembered that she had come from the Californian left of the party. They remembered that, as part of the deal in which the field was cleared so that he could become a nominee in 2020, Biden promised to have a woman V-P candidate (presumably as a sop to the forces within the Democratic machine that dumped him for Hillary in 2015-16). And then, under pressure to respond to the all the carry on about George Floyd, he revised his promise to be that the candidate would be a black woman. That meant that Harris came into the role with “DEI” stamped on her forehead: unfairly, as she turned out to be quite a meritorious appointment. But the voters remember. And then the way Biden was replaced by her was also seen by many as being undemocratic. (Unfair, but that’s how it goes.)
The Dem machine seems to have given up to a significant extent on the primary process as a way of finding the best candidate. Say what you like about Trump, but he has triumphed in three primary processes: the first against quite a lot of opposition from the party machine, and more recently against a candidate in De Santis who had been annointed by the media a couple of years back.
Meanwhile, the last truly competitive primary process on the Dem side was 2008, when it seemed that the machine was desperate to clear the field for Hillary, but the fact that Obama was black ended up staying their hand. In 2016, they had their way and cleared the field, even though Biden was the obvious choice. And, even then, Sanders – who had only joined the Dem Party weeks before nominating as a candidate – performed surprisingly well in the primaries. In 2020, terrified of Sanders or Warren winning the primary, the Dem machine cleared the field again for Biden: a good choice at the time, but it should have been clear that his health would not allow him to go two terms and they should have looked seriously for a very strong V-P candidate who would be a logical replacement. Then, in 2024, where there might have been some sort of electoral process involving the delegates to pick a replacement for Biden, the decision was made to go straight to Harris.
I reckon that it’s about time that the Dems went back to accepting that the best way to find the best candidate is to let the Darwinian primary process rip and see who comes out on top. Perhaps the winner will prove to someone who is a little further to the left of centre than the party would ideally like. And, shock horror, they might be a white male. But, as Trump shows, it’s quite possible for candidates whose support comes from the more radical base to also reach out towards voters in the centre. Or the process might throw up a strong centrist candidate like Clinton or Obama. Who knows? Run it properly and find out.
So, to conclude: I don’t think the answer is to do better at explaining to the public the evils of the US capitalist system that Trump represents. I think the answer is more democracy: run the primaries properly and go with the winner.
And enough with all the woke/DEI nonsense. You beauty that a transwoman has won a seat in Delaware: a postage stamp-sized state whose main purpose seems to be to provide dodgy New York businessmen like Trump with a place to register shelf companies. I’m sure that’s really going to energise the voters of middle America whom the Dems need to win back if they want to remain at all relevant to the US political system. Not.
End of rant.
Macca RB: “Despite the result – fabulous coverage of the USA election from the US Public Broadcasting Service on SBS Australia.
An intelligent panel of political journalists, with only two political staffers, including a very lucid Republican.”
—————————————————————————–
Yes, that’s the coverage I watched. Great presenters, including Brooks and Capehart and the legendary Judy Woodruff coming out of retirement, along with the always-professional (and wonderfully-named) reporter Lisa Desjardins doing the Antony Green job with great aplomb and a lot of charm.
And no sign of any ning-nong Aussie journos on an expensive jaunt to Washington to provide them with an opportunity to demonstrate how little they know about the US political system.
Just the Aphrodite of Australian television Janice Peterson in the SBS studio in Sydney doing an excellent hosting job with a minimum of fuss. As always.
And top of the morning to you all.
‘FUBAR says:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 3:39 am
I wonder if the Federal ALP polling was showing exactly what happened in the US is happening to them and that’s why they had the ridiculous Not-a-Campaign-Launch last weekend and the release of the unneeded changes to the HECS-HELP system?’
==================================
Wonderer of wonders!
Congratulations to the Albanese Government for addressing the COL concerns of HECs students by taking thousands of dollars off their debts. The immediate and direct impact is having more dollars in the pocket for the COL issues.
All three million of them!
Albanese does nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing…
If that made the FUBAR Party feel grumpy so much the better.
Thanks, Meher
I thought Lewis’ analysis pretty useful when applied to Australia.
In essence the center in the US is doing what the center everywhere is doing. It is hollowing out.
Ditto in Australia where the Overton window is being stretched while at the same time heading rightwards.
Misogyny, religious fundamentalism, nihilism, anti-intellectualism, appeal to strong manism, law-and-orderism, racism, anti migrant, xenophobia, nationalism, economic isolationism and head-in-the-sand climate denial are common themes.
Dutton is working all of the above, although he knows the secret abortion agenda of his fundy christian infested membership is a chink in his armour.
The last Australian Fed election was about some specifics: corruption, climate and women.
The next election will be back to the hip pocket. Which is why the Liberals and the Nationals are fulminating about the Albanese Government’s HECs debt relief package. It hits Dutton where it hurts politically.
Not that I agree with the HECs debt middle class welfare approach.
Dick Smith is another Rhinehart sycophant.
I’ve never heard anyone grovel like the Dick.
Just purged my TV and phone of all my democrat leaning podcast subscriptions. Threw out the remaining red drink I hadn’t swallowed.
Time for a realignment.
No more echo chambers for Mundo.
Two predictions.
Pete Buttigieg will be the next democrat nominee.
Oh, and Dutton and his miserable cohort will easily win the election next year.
So time to get on with life.
Good luck everyone.
Make everything great again.
Meher Baba @ 6.46am
Thumbs up.
As we are retired folk, must view television at our home is PBS Newshour, each day.
A staple of SBS, since the advent of this network.
Ahh – Lisa Desjardins and her cat. A highlight of the pandemic.
I have to fully confer with your comments posted @ 6.26am, too.
The unspoken needs to be spoken by the Democratic Party and acted upon.
I did not see Trump winning as watching his extreme antics I thought there was no way the majority would vote for him. I was totally wrong, looking back with hindsight you can see that the situation with Biden did not pan out well. The whole conversation became about Bidens health and Trump flew under the radar. Maybe if Biden had have said he wouldn’t run for a second term last year and allowed the democrats a chance to select one of the candidates as per usual including Kamala Harris and maybe Shapiro or Newsom or Beshear it could have gone better. Obviously I have no idea about American politics as even Queensland where I live is nowhere near as conservative as many parts of America. When you think of Latino voters voting Trump after he spent most of the time putting them down in the most horrible ways you become astonished at the USA. I can understand a white male voter in former industrial heartlands grasping at the straws of tariffs a little better. I guess Trump offered something to a larger group that Harris didn’t and sexism and racism got thrown into the mix. Parts of America are like Australia maybe the west coast but the rest is very very different and religion plays a much bigger part as well.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
If George Washington was the father of America’s democracy, Donald Trump is its undertaker, declares Peter Hartcher in quite a eulogy.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/if-george-washington-was-the-father-of-america-s-democracy-donald-trump-is-its-undertaker-20241106-p5koch.html
In Trump’s open-mic night at the Palm Beach Convention Centre, we saw a preview of what the world can expect over the next four years: A president who is even more unrestrained, even more himself, than he was the first time around., writes Matthew Knott.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-s-open-mic-night-at-mar-a-lago-a-preview-of-the-next-four-years-20241106-p5koit.html
Reversal is complete and the Republicans are the working-class party, writes Farrah Tomazin saying that at its core, this was an election in which most of the country was broadly unhappy with the course it was on and wanted change.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/reversal-is-complete-republicans-are-the-working-class-party-20241106-p5koc7.html
America’s progressive march has been halted in its tracks. The Democrats have nobody to blame but themselves. This is a defeat for their economic priorities, climate-change action and identity politics, pontificates Paul Kelly. He says, “Many questions remain. Might Trump and Vance lay the foundations for a new US centre-right majority? Will Trump trigger a global trade war? Will he sell out Ukraine and Taiwan? How will Trump resolve the conflict between his free-market and government interventionist advisers? And finally, how will Anthony Albanese manage President Trump?”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary%2Ftrump-mark-iis-shock-and-awe-mandate%2Fnews-story%2F94ef5052dcdb6029fd95cf7ee58b35ed?amp
As the US opts for more of Trump’s unpredictability, Albanese will be focusing on what he can control, writes Karen Middelton. She says that with Trump’s victory confirmed, the Albanese government is now bracing for punishing tariffs on Australian exports, a shrinking world economy and a shift in the axis of global power – not towards the US but away from it.
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2024/nov/06/as-the-us-opts-for-more-of-trumps-unpredictability-albanese-will-be-focusing-on-what-he-can-control
Today is a day of despair for America. We are plunged into an anticipatory grief, writes Moira Donegan who says that as we face another Trump presidency, I hope we can turn our attention to the most vulnerable: those who are less safe today than they were yesterday.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/trump-wins-election-consequences-despair-america
Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton have congratulated Donald Trump on his win. The victory reinforced concerns inside Labor over the damage inflation can inflict on governments, write Phil Coorey and Andrew Tillett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/us-australia-relationship-will-thrive-say-pm-and-dutton-20241106-p5ko9e
Mark Kenny writes, “After the pandemic and the inflationary overhang inherited by Joe Biden, this was the vengeance poll. And the target of that vengeance? Elites. Legacy media. Progressive culture warriors. Judges. Women. It was the election in which female bodily autonomy came smack against a brittle and panicked masculinity.” He says voters decided that a former president who abused his power and ignored their sovereign verdict in 2020, could simply be re-installed, no apology necessary for breaking democracy’s golden covenant of mutual respect between voter and candidate.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8813146/mark-kenny-voter-anger-fuels-pivotal-election-on-womens-rights/?cs=14329
Trump’s road map is guiding the Liberals to a destination still unknown, writes Niki Savva. She says the despicable Donald Trump has provided a formula for success built on lies, misogyny, undermining institutions and dividing people. His influence on the practices and psyche of the Australian body politic has been profound and malignant. Savva concludes with, “Labor’s task now is to show Dutton would make life worse not better. The problem is, the person who has to make that case (outside of the advertising campaign) is Anthony Albanese, who has shown repeatedly lately not that he is of bad character – but that his judgment cannot be trusted.’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-s-road-map-is-guiding-the-liberals-to-a-destination-still-unknown-20241105-p5ko54.html
For women, 2016 was bad. 2024 hurts even more, declares Jacqui Maley.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/for-women-2016-was-bad-2024-hurts-even-more-20241106-p5koh5.html
The SMH has commissioned five of its key journos to look at Trump 2.0 and what what four more years means for Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-2-0-what-four-more-years-means-for-australia-20240614-p5jlrr.html
Donald Trump’s inflationary tariffs could keep interest rates higher for longer and hurt Australia’s trade with China, investors and economists are betting, writes John Kehoe.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/trump-win-means-higher-interest-rates-and-weaker-australian-economy-20241106-p5kof0
Inflation and where it goes next is the No.1 issue for global markets as counting continues in the US election, writes Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/global-economy-hangs-in-balance-as-investors-brace-for-election-result-20241106-p5kod1.html
“Labor cutting Hecs debt is not a perfect policy – but why the feigned outrage over ‘fairness’?”, asks Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/labor-cutting-hecs-debt-is-not-a-perfect-policy-but-why-the-feigned-outrage-over-fairness
Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us that Xi’s key policymakers are meeting to discuss a large fiscal stimulus package, knowing that the US election outcome could have threatening implications for China.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/tight-us-election-casts-a-shadow-over-china-s-economic-planning-20241106-p5koah.html
Australia’s richest person and the former Liberal Party vice president were joined by Nigel Farage and Elon Musk at Mar-a-Lago to celebrate Trump’s comeback. Sickening.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/best-night-of-my-life-rinehart-mcqueen-front-and-centre-at-trump-s-victory-party-20241106-p5kocb.html
David Crowe tells us that Australian leaders are preparing for tough fights over defence deals and trade wars after United States voters put Donald Trump on course to regain the presidency and embark on his sweeping “America First” agenda.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/re-elected-donald-trump-would-set-up-possible-clash-with-australia-on-tariffs-20241106-p5kocq.html
Both left-wing PMs have to ensure political divergence doesn’t disturb the US alliance. But Sir Keir has a particular problem: his name is Nigel Farage, says Hans van Leeuwen.
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/starmer-like-albo-faces-a-tricky-task-with-trump-20241107-p5kojv
Under-pressure opposition frontbencher Bridget McKenzie has apologised for failing to declare 16 flight upgrades across Australia and to New Zealand dating back years, just over a week after she claimed to have never sought or received airline perks. She so often comes across as a dope.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mckenzie-set-to-reveal-more-than-a-dozen-flight-upgrades-20241106-p5koa9.html
Tony Burke will urgently introduce new laws aimed at restoring ankle bracelets and curfews for former immigration detainees, after the High Court struck down the Albanese government’s monitoring regime by finding it was punitive and unconstitutional. Natassia Chrysanthos reports that Labor sought to fend off a fresh political storm yesterday after a majority of justices ruled the federal government did not have the authority to impose curfews or electronic tracking devices on 140 former detainees who have been released into the community since last year.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-detainees-unshackled-from-ankle-bracelets-curfews-after-high-court-win-20241105-p5ko0z.html
According to James Massola, Matt Canavan won’t be withdrawing from the Senate a bill that would require medical professionals to provide healthcare to fetuses described as “born alive” after an abortion has been performed. Canavan says Australia’s abortion laws will not be an issue at the next federal election because neither the Liberal nor National Parties support changes to the law. His refusal to withdraw the bill comes one day after Peter Dutton ordered Coalition MPs to abandon their push for a federal abortion debate, which will provide Labor with grounds to attack the opposition on the hot-button issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/canavan-defies-dutton-edict-won-t-withdraw-abortion-bill-20241106-p5koe2.html
The mystery of the black grime balls has been solved. Testing has revealed thousands of balls washed up on Sydney’s beaches are a “disgusting” mix of cooking oil, soap scum, faeces and drugs, including cannabis and ice.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/cooking-oil-poo-and-drugs-mystery-of-grime-balls-on-sydney-beaches-solved-20241105-p5ko5n.html
In an extraordinary hearing, the Federal Court heard the barrister feared trolling and harassment if his name was revealed. Michaela Whitbourn describes how it all unfolded.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mystery-shrouds-identity-of-lehrmann-s-barrister-for-defamation-appeal-20241105-p5ko7f.html
Sewell Setzer’s tragic death is not the only suicide linked to lonely people who have grown to depend on AI companions. This is a pandemic that demands tough regulation, argues Raffaele Ciriello.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/this-boy-s-chatbot-girlfriend-enticed-him-to-suicide-his-case-might-save-millions-20241106-p5koc8.html
The fading incidence of ethical behaviour in public life has touched one of our most treasured national myths with the naming of David Warner as captain of Sydney Thunder for the coming Big Bash season, says an unimpressed SMH editor.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/david-warner-s-new-captaincy-shows-few-serve-life-any-more-20241106-p5kocl.html
The Guardian looks at those who may find roles in the cabinet and wider administration when Trump takes office.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/pompeo-kennedy-and-musk-who-could-be-in-trumps-new-administration
Elon Musk’s flood of US election tweets may look chaotic. Timothy Graham’s data reveals an alarming strategy.
https://theconversation.com/elon-musks-flood-of-us-election-tweets-may-look-chaotic-my-data-reveals-an-alarming-strategy-243021
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Dionne Gain
Glen Le Lievre
Peter Broelman
Leak
From the US
Princeplanetsays:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 7:35 am
When you think of Latino voters voting Trump after he spent most of the time putting them down in the most horrible ways you become astonished at the USA. I can understand a white male voter in former industrial heartlands grasping at the straws of tariffs a little better. I can understand a white male voter in former industrial heartlands grasping at the straws of tariffs a little better.
_____________________
Most of Trump’s rhetoric was about “illegal” migrants, which if you are a voting Latino means one can mentally exclude themselves from it (being not “illegal”).
But I think the US “left” mistakenly does a little bit of racism itself.
Firstly, it assumes Latino culture is monolithic, which it very much isn’t. Mexico is not the same as Chile, and neither speak the same language as Brazil, so it is a bit presumptive to assume all will feel the same way culturally about the background of southern border crossings
Secondly, it forgets that migrants can sometimes be “bridge burners” themselves. If a Latino family is fully based in the US with no legal risks, it is quite possible they apply the same economic lens to the border issue as “white” America. It is similar to here in Australia with migrants moving to western Sydney, only to end up complaining about long commute times and overdevelopment.
Finally, the overall rhetoric assumes “black vs white”, whereas race relations between minorities in the US is not exactly rosy:
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ramona-hate-crime-20160707-snap-story.html
Be it latest Essential (let alone Newspoll) or TGA aggregate/ polls tracker (same for BludgerTrack, https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/) has 2.PP with the opp.
What’s the gov going to do to not lose in 2025?
The fading incidence of ethical behaviour in public life has touched one of our most treasured national myths with the naming of David Warner as captain of Sydney Thunder for the coming Big Bash season, says an unimpressed SMH editor.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/david-warner-s-new-captaincy-shows-few-serve-life-any-more-20241106-p5kocl.html
___________________________________
Adult Crime, Adult Time…
Thank you, BK.
‘Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us that Xi’s key policymakers are meeting to discuss a large fiscal stimulus package, knowing that the US election outcome could have threatening implications for China.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/tight-us-election-casts-a-shadow-over-china-s-economic-planning-20241106-p5koah.html‘
=========================================
They were discussing the large fiscal stimulus package BEFORE Trump was elected. No doubt Trump will concentrate the minds.
The problem with the 2024 Fiscal Stimulus Packages to date is that they mostly involve throwing good money after bad. All the pump priming the economy has been swallowed by monstrous debt and debtors, having not much to invest in, using any spare lolly to reduce their debts.
Xi loathes the idea of pump priming consumer spending so consumer spending is going down the toilet. I imagine that the more clever heads in China are busy trying to figure out ways of telling Xi he needs to change course. Their problem? People who express this view in public keep disappearing.
One of Xi’s three pillars for the future of China is for China to export its way into prosperity – through mercantilism. That is finished as far as the EU, the US and numerous other nations around the world are concerned.
Globalism is dead. Australia is a trade-exposed nation. We are in for a very rough ride. It is not for nothing that the Aussie lost 2% yesterday. Most of what we consume just got the prices inflated. Just like that.
#weatheronPB
Sun is trying hard,
but she can’t quite cheer me up.
Props for trying, but.
‘VCT Et3e says:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 8:04 am
Be it latest Essential (let alone Newspoll) or TGA aggregate/ polls tracker (same for BludgerTrack, https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/) has 2.PP with the opp.
What’s the gov going to do to not lose in 2025?’
=========================
True. Albanese does nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing…
HECS-HELP reform. Three million HECs debtors receive a 20% cut in their debt and a higher threshold payment. COL benefits to around three million students.
Veterans support reform. Three acts merged into one act. Application processes simplified. The Coalition 42,000 backlog in applications fixed. Expanded range of support. Establishment of a presumption of a connection between service and health conditions. Additional $220 million in funding. COL benefits around 600,000 veterans.
300,000 free TAFE positions and legislated for 100,000 free TAFE positions per annum here on in. COL benefits for around 300,000 TAFE graduates.
The commentator anguish this morning is palpable. The ABC is into Day 2 of wall-to-wall US election coverage.
The consensus seems to be “US voters won’t vote for a woman president”.
Maybe that’s it, but I think that’s a bit frivolous. I’ll stick with the incumbency problem. Each nation’s set of voters blame their own incumbent government for the prevailing world economic woes.
So we’ll end up with a worldwide set of idiots running the show just as the world economy recovers.
I bought a Trump fist-in-the-air T-shirt the day of the ear’sbreadth assassination failure. I want to wear it downtown today, but my 7yo grandson won’t allow it. There is some hope for the world.
Mundo is right, It is indeed time to prepare for a long winter.
‘Luigi Smith says:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 8:29 am
I bought a Trump fist-in-the-air T-shirt the day of the ear’sbreadth assassination failure. I want to wear it downtown today, but my 7yo grandson won’t allow it. There is some hope for the world.’
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I have dusted off my MAGA cap. It was stored right next to my Little Red Book.
You can dud most of the people some of the time…
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Depressing as I found yesterday, you can’t argue about the result this time. Trump won clearly. From the evidence of dissatisfaction with Biden I feel sorry for Harris. She campaigned tirelessly but to no avail.
Australia isn’t immune to the trends that elected Trump. Our young men watch the same social media. Labor (and the Greens) have to learn from this.
In terms of economic policy I think the days of free trade globalism are over. We ought to move to a system of trade reciprocity. If another country has open trade with us we do the same. If not we both tariff.
As for AUKUS in the current environment, with China likely to have free-er trade with Australia than USA, it is going to be costly, unpopular and do us little good.
Rudd will have to be recalled from Washington – as an ambassador he’s expressed strong views on us domestic politics, ie the presidency and trump which means his position is untenable.
It’s likely to come up in the first Albo/ Trump phone call
The immediate upshot of the USA result is the surge in USA Stocks, the DJIA up by 3.4% , the surge in Bond Yields including in Australia, the surge in the USD BUT elsewhere losses across the European Bourses (from initial significant gains to significant losses) and ASX Futures being flat. So America first and the rest in decline
This is the World we live in where self interest abounds confirmed in Australia by Capital Gains Tax dispensations, Negative Gearing, Franking Credits and The Voice driving election results
Meanwhile Australian media informs us that everyone is whinging about their lot in life in Australia including because the pm has sold and bought a home and that, over the last decade, he has been upgraded on 20 of the flights he has undertaken (his nemesis McKenzie upgraded 16 times not declared – so how many declared therefore total over how long?)
What we are seeing is this eternal whinging no matter what and the prominence given to whingers undermining government – a deliberate tactic by Tory oppositions which, with their media barons are expert at undermining before we get to racism, sexism and elitism
Look at the culture at our media Companies and in the Liberal Party (relationships with employees and the resignations – except Joyce, surely Australia’s Trump – noting the mining magnate who supports him is front and centre with “drill baby, drill” Trump and otherwise the Coalition support for mining and nuclear energy)
And the whingers think Trump and Dutton will address their grievances – noting NZ where the numbers moving to Australia are what they are so refugees from austerity and racism which is dividing society including now in Queensland, the epicentre of this movement in Australia
But the DJIA has surged – and the rest going backwards
The World of today, hey?
Thanks BK!
As for the US election, there is egg on my face. I failed to factor in that 54% of American adults 18 or over have a literacy level below sixth-grade and 21% are illiterate. Mind you we aren’t that much better.
Soc
My view is that AUKUS is actually a self-solving problem.
Our terms of trade are likely to go down the tubes. And with it, our ability to pay for AUKUS.
LVT
Could this be Albo’s escape path? Nothing wrong with taking over from the Ruddster
Well OC you and I both know for Albo love of country comes first above selfish personal aspirations like holding onto the job of being the King’s first minister in Australia.
Socratessays:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 8:35 am
Australia isn’t immune to the trends that elected Trump. Our young men watch the same social media. Labor (and the Greens) have to learn from this.
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I think this is understating the problem. I have a 14 yr old niece, who is the child of teachers, and lives out in Canberra, who recently complained to me about things being “too woke”. If she with every “progressive” marker starts talking like an Andrew Tate fan, it shows it is a much bigger issue than the young boys.
Banning and blocking social media from the kids is an absolute must in Australia – there is no “teaching” the kids out of this stuff.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 8:35 am
It’s likely to come up in the first Albo/ Rudd phone call.
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Albo also needs to invite Trump down for a visit. That’s the standard. That’s what normally happens. Rudd will have to organise it.
What a shame George Carlin is dead.
I would have loved to hear his philosophical view on the state of world politics.
We listened to a conga line of Libs yesterday shrieking about the misinformation bill & how everyones opinion deserves to be heard.
Good grief!
We all know why the Coalition oppose it.
Macca RB: “Ahh – Lisa Desjardins and her cat. A highlight of the pandemic.”
My partner and I love the PBC News Hour (in fact, I go all the way back to the McNeill-Lehrer era and, indeed, used to listen daily to the radio version “All Things Considered” while travelling extensively around the US by car 30+ years ago).
And monitoring the daily activities of Lisa Desjardins’ cat was a highlight of the pandemic period at our place.
Bizzcan
Boomers are just as vulnerable to social media as children. Just go down to your local lawn bowls or golf club and listen quietly….
Bizzcan: “Secondly, it forgets that migrants can sometimes be “bridge burners” themselves. If a Latino family is fully based in the US with no legal risks, it is quite possible they apply the same economic lens to the border issue as “white” America. It is similar to here in Australia with migrants moving to western Sydney, only to end up complaining about long commute times and overdevelopment.”
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Exactamundo! People I know who work for political parties have told me that the idea that migrant communities are more sympathetic to unauthorised arrivals than those nasty, racist whites out in the suburbs is totally wrong. Everyone who works in politics understands this fact, but I find that a lot of dreamy-eyed academics and media types who rattle on and on about the wonderful blessings of multiculturalism and how it cured Australians of racism don’t seem to get it. Case in point: large numbers of people protested around the country in support of the “Biloela family” but, as far as I could see from the television footage, 99 per cent of these people were Anglos.
Re the Latino vote, I think we also got reminded yesterday of the linguistic derivation of the word “macho.”
The US will get the president it wants and deserves. Very clearly. No possibility this time around that they didn’t know exactly what to expect. And they will get it. In spades.
However, I feel sorry for Harris. She deserved better, as did the many Americans who hoped and worked for a better outcome.
I also feel sorry for the rest of the world. We did not deserve this either.
The world is going to be a very different place in four years time. Heck, probably in just a few months time – with so much to tear down, the machinery behind Trump will not waste a day if they can help it.
LVT: “It’s likely to come up in the first Albo/ Trump phone call.”
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Perhaps Albo could make A_E’s day and appoint Richard Marles as Rudd’s replacement.
Player One: “The US will get the president it wants and deserves. Very clearly. No possibility this time around that they didn’t know exactly what to expect. And they will get it. In spades.”
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Indeed. To quote HL Mencken again for anyone who missed my post yesterday:
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
@Rex – olds are going to old anyway. Traditionally the youngs start out more progressive – we’re staring in the face now of the first young generation in ages being indoctrinated into throwback social views about the roles of men and women, and the peak “woke” generation is failing to see it coming up behind them while lecturing millenials.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has not yet had a call with incoming president Donald Trump, Foreign Minister Penny Wong has confirmed.
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We will be way down the list.
The problem with the Democrats and similarly with Labor here is that on the one hand they try and present themselves as a “progressive” party but on the other they continue to maintain a status quo that sees the rich get richer and the vast majority meanwhile fall further behind. They say nice things but in reality fail to deliver much for ordinary people.
If these parties cannot provide practical economic improvements to people then the working classes will continue to abandon them in favour of others who are actually offering something different.
Hoping Albanese learns from the Democrats defeat. It’s not enough to whinge, about the opposition, about the media, about democratic institutions being under attack. You need to go out there and you need to make promises, you need to demonstrate that you can deliver tangible benefits to people, you need to act like you are protecting Australian workers, you need to deliver wage increases.
It’s not enough to point at a graph saying wages are up, when retail wages which account for 9.7% of the workforce, have been stagnant for almost a decade. People are fed up with the technocracy, as we saw with Sunak, we want good honest grassroots campaigning. Trump was wise enough to pay lip service on issues such as healthcare, education, student loan reforms, welfare, and so on. He will never deliver on these, but it definitely won him some swing voters, especially in states like Philadelphia where multiple studies have shown that a progressive economic message polled better with workers than Immigration and Democracy.
I got an email this morning from Ken Adams, “Popehat”, going ape fucking shit about the result and it’s interesting – as in some ways I agree with his maintain the rage, don’t let them normalise this, do what you can to keep standing up for democracy attitude, and on the other hand as I’ve said before, apart from the attempt to coup the 2020 election, and admittedly that’s a biggie, I didn’t think Trump was as bad as a President as George W Bush whose still to blame for the destruction of the international order that held away for 30 years or so and for countless deaths in the wars that he directly or indirectly triggered.
The world survived the first four years of Trump and it can do another four, especially since the odds are he’s not making it through four alive and undemented anyway. He looked pretty cactus by the end of the campaign.
People have to remain vigilant against his attacks on democracy, yes.
The Democrats got sucked in by the end to over focussing on anything but the economy. Everyone who can’t stand Trump’s character was already against him. This was true by the last two weeks of Clinton’s campaign. 8 years later to waste time on it was particularly bad.
Labor in Australia needs to learn the same lesson. Don’t rely on people being against Dutton because he’s an arsehole. People think all politicians are arseholes anyway with some justification. Don’t rely on getting credit for high job growth and surpluses if people don’t feel them. Don’t rely on people being scientifically literate, this isn’t the 90s where people accepted expert evidence on say nuclear energy being a crock for Australia and had a natural aversion to the risk of nuclear meltdown, hardly anyone under 40 even remembers what a nuclear meltdown is.
This is also why I focus so much on interest rate cuts – I think that makes an outsize difference to the narrative of how people feel.
The Democrats need to find, through a primary yes, a new standard bearer who can convince Trump voters that the Democrats can improve their lives and not just talk about abortion, democracy and other things that aren’t priorities to those voters. Those can be part of the platform without being the loud focus.
From BK Dawn Patrollers:
“ Tony Burke will urgently introduce new laws aimed at restoring ankle bracelets and curfews for former immigration detainees, after the High Court struck down the Albanese government’s monitoring regime by finding it was punitive and unconstitutional”
Urgently introduced laws was the problem the last time. Then, the High Court was quite clear. Detention is a punishment and, under the separation of powers in the constitution, punishing people is for courts to decide – not governments. Then, Albanese freaked out that Dutton would come at him for being weak on ‘illegals’, so he decided to deal with the Devil and rush through rubbish legislation that would obviously fail on appeal. And now Labor are going to do it again.
It’s similar to rushing through rubbish union busting laws after freaking out that Dutton would come at him for being weak about the CFMEU, which caused hundreds of union officials to lose their jobs despite no allegations of illegality against them. So much for ‘fighting Tories.’
Dutton knows that going after Albanese for being weak will work because it’s true.
When will a timid Albanese learn that Dutton doesn’t return favours? When will a timid Albanese learn that turning the ALP into a Liberal appeasement party will doom him to being a one term loser.