Live Commentary
11:31am In the House, three uncalled races have only two Dem candidates and one has only two Rep candidates. Adding those to called seats gives Reps a 205-190 lead over Dems with 218 needed for a majority.
9:48am Thursday Trump is very likely to win the last two uncalled states in Arizona and Nevada, for a 312-226 Electoral College victory. That would give him all his 2016 states plus Nevada. In the national popular vote, Trump leads currently by 50.9-47.4. The NYT needle gave him a 1.5% popular vote margin in its forecast.
In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-44 lead over Democrats with four races undecided. An independent who caucuses with Dems will win Maine, Reps lead narrowly in Pennsylvania and Nevada with some votes outstanding, and Dems lead narrowly in Arizona with many votes outstanding.
In the House, Reps lead Dems by 204-186 with 45 uncalled. A majority is achieved with 218 seats, so Reps are well ahead.
9:46pm In the House, Republicans currently lead by 196 to 176 with 218 needed for a majority. Many undecided seats are in California and other states with mail to count.
9:37pm CNN has called a Trump win in Wisconsin, where he leads by 49.8-48.8 with 99% counted. This puts him over the 270 electoral votes needed; he now has 276. However, that last count from Wisconsin has put the Dem ahead in the Senate, and the Dem will win that seat.
6:20pm Here’s my article for The Conversation on today’s results. The polls understated Trump again, and he performed particularly well in racially diverse states compared to 2020.
4:34pm The NY Times says Florida, New Jersey and New York, which all have diverse racial populations, are likely to shift 9-10 points more Republican compared with 2020.
4:22pm The NY Times has called a Republican win in the Senate, with a 51-42 current lead over Democrats. Republicans are currently leading in another four states that haven’t been called. This may get very ugly for Democrats.
2:55pm The NY Times needle now gives Trump an 87% chance of winning, and has him winning in all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It’s also looking grim for Democrats in both the Senate and House.
1:51pm The NY Times needle overall now gives Trump a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Trump at a 56% chance to win Pennsylvania. Once again, the US polls appear to have understated Trump. The national popular vote prediction is Harris by 0.3 points.
1:18pm Trump now has a 76% win prob according to the NY Times Needle in both Georgia and NC. Harris will need to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn, all states in which her win prob is currently about 50-50.
1:04pm Texas has been called for Trump and he now leads Harris by 154 electoral votes to 27. It’s not a good sign for Harris that Illinois and New York haven’t been called for her as soon as polls closed.
12:57pm In CNN’s map, Trump has won 105 electoral votes to 27 for Harris. The NY Times Needle gives Trump a 72% chance in Georgia and a 62% chance in N Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 52% chance. Harris’ margins are likely to be reduced from Biden 2020 in Virginia and New Hampshire.
12:31pm The NY Times Needle is working. It gives Trump a 71% chance to win Georgia, 57% in North Carolina and 52% in Pennsylvania.
12:27pm With 50% reporting in Georgia, Trump leads by 55-44. It’s difficult to see Harris pulling back that lead.
12:05pm With all polls now closed in Florida, Trump is called the winner. He now leads Harris by 90 electoral votes to 27, with 270 needed to win.
11:58am In completed Georgian counties so far, there’s a small shift to Trump. Harris will need good numbers in more urhan regions.
11:47am NY Times says Trump getting swings in his favour in completed counties so far in Kentucky and Indiana. But these are rural counties.
11:40am A suburban Indiana county has Trump’s margin down from 18% since 2020 to 10% with 91% reporting.
11:35am Harry Enten on CNN says Harris is running about 0.5 points behind Biden in mostly completed counties so far.
11:33am Trump has a small lead in Virginia with 2% in. Rural counties tend to report faster in that state.
11:22am With 53% counted in Florida, Trump leads by 53.8-45.3. Trump wins Miami Dade county (a strongly Hispanic county in south Florida) by 55-44 with 70% in.
11:10am Kentucky has been called for Trump and Vermont for Harris. With 18% already in in Florida, Trump leads by 52-47.
10:16am The first results are in from Kentucky and Indiana, and Trump has big leads as expected in those states. These states are split across time zones, and won’t be called until 11am. CNN has the results.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The first polls for the US presidential election close at 10am AEDT today, with polls in the key states closing from 11am. See Monday’s guide in The Conversation for more information on poll closing times and whether initial results in a state will favour Kamala Harris or Donald Trump relative to the final results.
In Nate Silver’s final aggregate of national polls, Harris has a 48.6-47.6 lead over Trump (48.5-47.8 in my Conversation article on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9. In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote.
Trump “leads” by 0.1 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes),. With a 0.6-point lead in Nevada (six), one-point leads in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and a 2.4-point lead in Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 287-251. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College by a narrow 270-268. Harris leads by one point in Wisconsin (ten) and Michigan (15).
There’s been a little late surge to Harris in win probabilities. Silver’s model gives Harris a 50% chance to win (Trump had a 53% win probability on Monday), while FiveThirtyEight also gives her a 50% chance. It’s a coin flip election, and if the polls are not completely accurate, one candidate could win decisively.
Harris needs at least a two-point win in the national popular vote to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model. Silver’s model is forecasting Harris wins the popular vote by 2.1 points (it aggregates state polls for this result instead of relying on national polls). There’s a 27% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.
Congressional elections will also be held concurrently. All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years; its 435 single-member seats are distributed on a population basis. Republicans won a 222-213 House majority at the 2022 midterm elections. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.3-45.6 lead over Republicans, a drop for Republicans from a 46.2-46.1 Democratic lead last Thursday.
There are two senators for each of the 50 states, and senators have six-year terms with one-third up every two years. Democrats and allied independents have a 51-49 Senate majority, but are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including three in states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.
Republicans are certain to gain West Virginia and very likely to gain Montana, where they have a seven-point lead in FiveThirtyEight averages. In Ohio, a late swing to Republicans has them 0.7 points ahead after Democrats led by 1.6 points last Thursday. Republicans have a two-point lead against an independent in Nebraska, while Democrats have a two-point lead in Wisconsin. In all other states, the incumbent party is at least three points ahead. If the polls are correct, Republicans will gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio and take a 52-48 Senate majority.
Since last Thursday, Democrats have gained in the FiveThirtyEight House forecast, but Republicans in the Senate. Democrats have a 51% chance to gain control of the House, up from 47% Thursday. But Republicans have a 92% chance to gain control of the Senate, up from 89%.
The reactionaries have grabbed everything and there’s very little to stop them dismantling nearly all the reforms enacted over the past century from Wilson and FDR onwards up to and including Obama and Biden.
Misery is making a huge comeback in America.
Steve777 @ #1745 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 8:30 pm
And we shouldn’t quake in our boots and lose our spine at what might happen.
Kirsdarke @ #1735 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 7:38 pm
Oh, okay. So they still love the brutal, murderous dictator loving, Jill Stein!?! Hmm.
Yes, there were well off elites on both the Harris and Trump sides, no doubt. But the big difference between those elites is a four letter word:
W O K E
I don’t think middle Americans appreciated being told who to vote for by the woke.
The same could happen here in our election; the woke, teals and greens are going to rubbish Dutton – that will work in his favour with middle Australians.
Newsom should do all he can to attempt to at least delay the excesses of the Trump regime. Sure, the corrupt & unethical justices nominated by Trump (plus Alito & Thomas) will little doubt ultimately support him, but to get to that point there’s an appeal process which could take some time before it gets to the SCOTUS. Someone has to stand up to Trump, and the governor of the most populated state is well-placed to do so. Further, Pocock outlines how the Dems can “flood the zones” to place fetters on an out-of-control Trump. What’s crucial is that the white flag must not be hoisted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnpLF9Mv2xM
Here’s another tip, the Trump haters are going to love this:
Biden to pardon Trump of all outstanding charges. I think he will do it lol 😀
Trump’s going to do a Barnaby and move various agencies out of DC to where more ‘patriots’ live. Otherwise known as red States to dilute the Blue vote in Blue states such as Maryland, Virginia and DC.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/11/07/trump-dc-federal-workforce-cuts/
And another tip, now this is a big call:
It is ‘quite possible’ that under Trump, the stock market may outperform property prices over the next four years?
Centre,
If you think you’ll keep getting your jollies from calling those of us who rightly despise Donald Trump and all he represents, ‘Trump Haters’, then you’ve got another think coming. It doesn’t bother me at all. You see, I have standards. So I will wear that name as a badge of honour because money doesn’t mean as much to me as it obviously does to you. So you can have your Trump Man Crush. IDGAF.
Centre:
Friday, November 8, 2024 at 10:26 pm
[‘Biden to pardon Trump of all outstanding charges. I think he will do it lol ‘]
Biden won’t be called on to do a Ford. Trump will simply direct the DOJ to nollie all federal indictments against him. He can’t do this for state charges – eg, the Fulton County matters – but given Georgia voted for him in spades, pressure will be put on The State Board of Pardons and Paroles to pardon him. As for Merchan, his sentence will be stayed until Trump leaves the WH, hopefully in a wooden box.
C@t
Whether you despise or detest Trump, as many here have indicated and it is their right to do, you can be grouped as Trump haters. If you would like to wear that as a badge of honour, good for you.
Player One at 4.21 pm and anybody else tempted to think like that
Do not use the phrase “demented cretin”. It shows you have zero understanding of dementia. For those interested in a seriously sad subject, see a new book by Rose Capp, Demystifying Dementia (2024):
https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Demystifying_Dementia/iXEJEQAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover
Summaries of medical research are available at:
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/dementia-prevention-intervention-care
Mavis,
No, I think Biden may well pardon Trump. We shall see. He probably should anyway given that Stormy Daniels welched on a deal in one of the charges lol
Mavis @ #1760 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 10:44 pm
Mavis,
As Fani Willis has just been re-elected, do you believe her case against Trump and his co-conspirators will now be put on ice for the 4 years of Trump’s next term? Can she still try the rest of them?
Whoops. Trump has yet to face trial in Fulton County. So, the Georgia A-G, under pressure from Governor Kemp, will drop the charges.
C@tmomma:
Friday, November 8, 2024 at 10:53 pm
Yes, I do, cat. There’s a US Justice Department protocol that holds that a sitting president, presumably including a president-elect, cannot be indicted while in office. And although the US Constitution is silent on this issue, it would be unlikely that the current SCOTUS would overturn this policy. I doubt the others accused under the RICHO charges will be tried. I bet the ones who did a plea deal are pissed.
Centre:
Friday, November 8, 2024 at 10:53 pm
[‘Mavis,
No, I think Biden may well pardon Trump.’]
But he doesn’t need to. Trump’s got it all in hand. I’m off.
Oakeshott Country at 5.40 pm
“You remind me of your anecdote that Billy McMahon did not know of the retreat of the Kuomintang to Taiwan, even though he would have lived through it.”
Billy McMahon was a fool when scribbling as Minister of External Affairs on Ministerial submissions about China, and perhaps much else, but at least he was vaguely aware that something like history does exist, and could be studied, if only one had the skill.
Trump is much worse. He probably lacks the attention span to watch the film 13 Days (about the Cuban Missile Crisis, on SBS on Sat at 5.50 pm), let alone realise that real history is more complicated.
By the way McMahon, in his ill-timed “trout” speech on 12 July 1971, rebuking Whitlam for visiting China when McMahon was doing precisely nothing by stalling on any moves toward accepting China as a significant power, accused Whitlam even of speaking “contemptuously of the Soviet Union, with whom my Government is slowly building bridges towards a better understanding beneficial to us.”
That was only three years after Soviet tanks crushed the Prague Spring.
Transcript at: https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-2444
McMahon rebuked Whitlam for ignoring China’s role in the Korean war. He would have lived through that as well, and may not have noticed that China got involved militarily only with the US at its door.
McMahon was perhaps the only Minister for External Affairs who got the job as a demotion, by Gorton. See the chapter by David Lee (pp 158-61) at:
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Ministers-for-Foreign-Affairs-1960-1972-compressed.pdf
At the moment it’s Trump +3 that mob from Brazil Atlas whatever had it Trump plus three and they were pretty close in 2020 so they obviously know how to do it.
As usual the media are getting carried away this is not Reagan in 1980 or even Obama in 2008 .Those writing epitaphs for the Democratic Party are providing the drama people like but it’s complete rubbish.
Trump had a perfect rails run, post covid inflation the stupidity of the Democrats feeding his narrative by pursuing him through the courts.Getting shot on the eve of the campaign and the Democrats running a female candidate when it seems black males are reluctant to turn out for female candidates.
There has now been a swing against the party that holds the white house at the last five US presidential elections. With the right candidate the Democrats could bounce back and win in 2028 as incumbency starts to eat way at the Republican veneer.
In the broader sweep of history and global policy its my view that the post WWII consensus has now finally come to a close. The marker will probably be the 2020 epidemic but the proposed dismantling of internal government structures by the upcoming US government will be the enactment of that closure.
An 80 year stint isn’t too bad.
I should have twigged when large numbers of Americans stood out on the street, some for days, waiting for the return of John Kennedy Jr, apparently from a faked air crash, that they wanted a royal family like Britain and other countries. Hence the embrace of Robert Kennedy Jr by Trump. He could make the connection in his salesman’s lizard brain. Give the suckers what they want!
And so we have the new first family of America, the Trumps. The new royal family that it seems America has craved to have again ever since the end of Camelot, maybe even ever since the end of getting rid of the lot from England. Call it Buyer’s Remorse and Trump, ever the super salesman, is just giving the market what it wants. And making a tidy profit from doing it.
Insiders Sunday, 10 Nov
Usa Votes Special From Washington Dc
On the Sunday after the US Election David Speers is live in Washington DC, joined by Sarah Ferguson and Charles Croucher to unpack the significance of Trump’s return to the White House and what this means for Australia.
Dr Doolittle @ #1762 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 10:50 pm
As a bit of a language purist, I will continue to use the word “demented” in its true sense, which is derived – as is “dementia” – from the Latin “dement”, which has the meaning (literally) of “deprived of mind” or (colloquially) “not of sound mind”.
In other words, “demented” did not originally imply only the medical condition we now know as “dementia”.
However, I take your point that today the original meaning has been largely subsumed, so I will be careful to use it only in circumstances where it is clearly warranted.
Centre says:
Friday, November 8, 2024 at 10:32 pm
And another tip, now this is a big call:
It is ‘quite possible’ that under Trump, the stock market may outperform property prices over the next four years?
I’m not sure most people will care if it does, majority of people own property and not as many own shares.
Either way only two presidents since Kennedy oversaw declines in the stock market – Nixon and George W Bush. The two best results – Clinton and Obama.
If Trump appts a new. Chief law officer and directs them to drop all charges against him this is an abuse of power…. and a improper decision by the Chief law officer . Isn’t there supposed to be a separation of powers. .. what oath did the Chief law officer take? Is there a a statement of reasons available for such actions? For requests?
The law is not supposed to allow a “fix”
I have nothing to add to this clearly dead and obsolete thread. I just noticed that the current number of posts sits at 1775 and I wanted to make the final number 1776, which is an appropriate number considering the topic of thread.