US presidential election live

Kamala Harris gains in final forecasts. Live coverage of the US presidential and congressional election results from Wednesday morning AEDT.

Live Commentary

11:31am In the House, three uncalled races have only two Dem candidates and one has only two Rep candidates. Adding those to called seats gives Reps a 205-190 lead over Dems with 218 needed for a majority.

9:48am Thursday Trump is very likely to win the last two uncalled states in Arizona and Nevada, for a 312-226 Electoral College victory. That would give him all his 2016 states plus Nevada. In the national popular vote, Trump leads currently by 50.9-47.4. The NYT needle gave him a 1.5% popular vote margin in its forecast.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-44 lead over Democrats with four races undecided. An independent who caucuses with Dems will win Maine, Reps lead narrowly in Pennsylvania and Nevada with some votes outstanding, and Dems lead narrowly in Arizona with many votes outstanding.

In the House, Reps lead Dems by 204-186 with 45 uncalled. A majority is achieved with 218 seats, so Reps are well ahead.

9:46pm In the House, Republicans currently lead by 196 to 176 with 218 needed for a majority. Many undecided seats are in California and other states with mail to count.

9:37pm CNN has called a Trump win in Wisconsin, where he leads by 49.8-48.8 with 99% counted. This puts him over the 270 electoral votes needed; he now has 276. However, that last count from Wisconsin has put the Dem ahead in the Senate, and the Dem will win that seat.

6:20pm Here’s my article for The Conversation on today’s results. The polls understated Trump again, and he performed particularly well in racially diverse states compared to 2020.

4:34pm The NY Times says Florida, New Jersey and New York, which all have diverse racial populations, are likely to shift 9-10 points more Republican compared with 2020.

4:22pm The NY Times has called a Republican win in the Senate, with a 51-42 current lead over Democrats. Republicans are currently leading in another four states that haven’t been called. This may get very ugly for Democrats.

2:55pm The NY Times needle now gives Trump an 87% chance of winning, and has him winning in all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It’s also looking grim for Democrats in both the Senate and House.

1:51pm The NY Times needle overall now gives Trump a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Trump at a 56% chance to win Pennsylvania. Once again, the US polls appear to have understated Trump. The national popular vote prediction is Harris by 0.3 points.

1:18pm Trump now has a 76% win prob according to the NY Times Needle in both Georgia and NC. Harris will need to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn, all states in which her win prob is currently about 50-50.

1:04pm Texas has been called for Trump and he now leads Harris by 154 electoral votes to 27. It’s not a good sign for Harris that Illinois and New York haven’t been called for her as soon as polls closed.

12:57pm In CNN’s map, Trump has won 105 electoral votes to 27 for Harris. The NY Times Needle gives Trump a 72% chance in Georgia and a 62% chance in N Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 52% chance. Harris’ margins are likely to be reduced from Biden 2020 in Virginia and New Hampshire.

12:31pm The NY Times Needle is working. It gives Trump a 71% chance to win Georgia, 57% in North Carolina and 52% in Pennsylvania.

12:27pm With 50% reporting in Georgia, Trump leads by 55-44. It’s difficult to see Harris pulling back that lead.

12:05pm With all polls now closed in Florida, Trump is called the winner. He now leads Harris by 90 electoral votes to 27, with 270 needed to win.

11:58am In completed Georgian counties so far, there’s a small shift to Trump. Harris will need good numbers in more urhan regions.

11:47am NY Times says Trump getting swings in his favour in completed counties so far in Kentucky and Indiana. But these are rural counties.

11:40am A suburban Indiana county has Trump’s margin down from 18% since 2020 to 10% with 91% reporting.

11:35am Harry Enten on CNN says Harris is running about 0.5 points behind Biden in mostly completed counties so far.

11:33am Trump has a small lead in Virginia with 2% in. Rural counties tend to report faster in that state.

11:22am With 53% counted in Florida, Trump leads by 53.8-45.3. Trump wins Miami Dade county (a strongly Hispanic county in south Florida) by 55-44 with 70% in.

11:10am Kentucky has been called for Trump and Vermont for Harris. With 18% already in in Florida, Trump leads by 52-47.

10:16am The first results are in from Kentucky and Indiana, and Trump has big leads as expected in those states. These states are split across time zones, and won’t be called until 11am. CNN has the results.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The first polls for the US presidential election close at 10am AEDT today, with polls in the key states closing from 11am. See Monday’s guide in The Conversation for more information on poll closing times and whether initial results in a state will favour Kamala Harris or Donald Trump relative to the final results.

In Nate Silver’s final aggregate of national polls, Harris has a 48.6-47.6 lead over Trump (48.5-47.8 in my Conversation article on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9. In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote.

Trump “leads” by 0.1 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes),. With a 0.6-point lead in Nevada (six), one-point leads in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and a 2.4-point lead in Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 287-251. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College by a narrow 270-268. Harris leads by one point in Wisconsin (ten) and Michigan (15).

There’s been a little late surge to Harris in win probabilities. Silver’s model gives Harris a 50% chance to win (Trump had a 53% win probability on Monday), while FiveThirtyEight also gives her a 50% chance. It’s a coin flip election, and if the polls are not completely accurate, one candidate could win decisively.

Harris needs at least a two-point win in the national popular vote to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model. Silver’s model is forecasting Harris wins the popular vote by 2.1 points (it aggregates state polls for this result instead of relying on national polls). There’s a 27% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

Congressional elections will also be held concurrently. All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years; its 435 single-member seats are distributed on a population basis. Republicans won a 222-213 House majority at the 2022 midterm elections. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.3-45.6 lead over Republicans, a drop for Republicans from a 46.2-46.1 Democratic lead last Thursday.

There are two senators for each of the 50 states, and senators have six-year terms with one-third up every two years. Democrats and allied independents have a 51-49 Senate majority, but are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including three in states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.

Republicans are certain to gain West Virginia and very likely to gain Montana, where they have a seven-point lead in FiveThirtyEight averages. In Ohio, a late swing to Republicans has them 0.7 points ahead after Democrats led by 1.6 points last Thursday. Republicans have a two-point lead against an independent in Nebraska, while Democrats have a two-point lead in Wisconsin. In all other states, the incumbent party is at least three points ahead. If the polls are correct, Republicans will gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio and take a 52-48 Senate majority.

Since last Thursday, Democrats have gained in the FiveThirtyEight House forecast, but Republicans in the Senate. Democrats have a 51% chance to gain control of the House, up from 47% Thursday. But Republicans have a 92% chance to gain control of the Senate, up from 89%.

1,776 comments on “US presidential election live”

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  3. The sound of it to me is that you are a Trump bootlicker.
    Essentially …….Don’t say/do anything to upset Trump.

    I think we need a name for it. How about, Trump Appeasement Syndrome?

  4. Could this be a record for the number of posts for a thread?

    Very appropriate as you all read it first (the outcome) on page 1.

    I’m enjoying the presidency of Trump. It’s good on the dark side. I know, I’m going where Stormy Daniels is going – even better times ahead.

  5. Dr D
    Trump obviously has little interest in history and less knowledge of it than most of his supporters.
    You remind me of your anecdote that Billy McMahon did not know of the retreat of the Kuomintang to Taiwan, even though he would have lived through it.

    I am sure Trump also has limited knowledge of the question of Taiwanese sovereignty and even less interest

  6. Why wouldn’t the Australian Government want to appease Trump?

    What possible good could come for us from antagonising him?

  7. According to Greens leader Bandt, Trump’s win was a bad day for the world, especially women and people of colour.

    Hello, Trump performed much better than expected among women and people of colour.

    Trump’s win was much worse for the Greenies than anything else – more good news.

  8. Our dealings with the Trump Administration should be polite, respectful, especially of the American people, and assertive of our interests. Like with everyone else. We don’t have to like the guy, cosy up to him or “appease” him.

  12. I know, I’m going where Stormy Daniels is going – even better times ahead.

    Microphones across the country rejoice. Women not so much.

  13. I’m not sure that Trump is paying much attention to whether Rudd likes him or not at the moment. Trump is going to punish the rest of the world whether leaders of other countries and their ambassadors have criticised him or not. (Perhaps he will make an exception for Russia, DPRK and Israel while Netanyahu remains PM.)

  14. Van Jones made a very good point. The Democrats spent a fortune on a ground game. Trump spent virtually nothing. Instead he reached out to the electorate via their phones.

    To which I will add, via ads that went to where the people were, such as during sporting fixtures.

  15. ”Could this be a record for the number of posts for a thread?”

    Not even close. Some have to several thousand. It might be high for a thread about international events, but probably nowhere near a record.

  16. C@tmomma @ #1714 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 6:09 pm

    Van Jones made a very good point. The Democrats spent a fortune on a ground game. Trump spent virtually nothing. Instead he reached out to the electorate via their phones.

    To which I will add, via ads that went to where the people were, such as during sporting fixtures.

    Another element that the Democrats completely overlooked is alt-right streamers. That would partially explain why young men voted so hard for Trump. Look at this.

    All of them except HasanAbi in 3rd place are pro-Trump alt-righters. And even then Hasan is more of a BernieBro that is very “anti-neoliberal” so to say.

  17. I don’t think the likes of Taylor Swift or other celebrities endorsing Harris worked that well.

    Middle Americans may not have appreciated being told who to vote for by the well-off elites.

    Many women voted for Trump. I’m prepared to give Trump time before making judgement. Let’s see if he can deliver and stop the Russian/Ukrainian conflict.

    Edit: C@t the dark side 🙂

  18. c@t: “It’s not an either/or proposition. Steve777 gets it absolutely right.”

    Do you think that retaining Rudd as our ambassador would be “polite, respectful, especially of the American people and assertive of our interests?” That’s the American people who just voted for trump in sufficient numbers to give Trump a resounding victory. And that’s Trump, the man whom Rudd has described as “a traitor to the West” and “the most destructive president in history.”

    I reckon Rudd staying on in the role is untenable. With some other presidents, you could probably smooth it over until the ambassador’s term had expired. But, as I pointed out earlier, Trump, like Caligula, is capable of turning suddenly against anyone, even Australia, the US’s most consistent ally since WWII. We’re not in a Neville Chamberlain situation: unlike Britain in the 1930s, we have neither the capability or desire to go to war against the US. So we have to be consistently friendly and tactful, and take a bit of the rough with the smooth.

    Men like Trump demand more than respect and politeness from others, they require persistent suckholing. I guess there were people who lived at Caligula’s time who were “polite, respectful and assertive of their interests” but who never tried to suck up to the emperor. I doubt that many of them lived to see Claudius become emperor.

  19. Centre: “Many women voted for Trump. I’m prepared to give Trump time before making judgement. Let’s see if he can deliver and stop the Russian/Ukrainian conflict.”
    ——————————————————————————
    Of course he can. Through the timeworn principle of “we had to destroy the village to save the village.”

  20. I don’t think the likes of Taylor Swift or other celebrities endorsing Harris worked that well.

    I dunno. Kid Rock and whoever it was ripping his shirt off several times seems to have worked a treat!

  21. Middle Americans may not have appreciated being told who to vote for by the well-off elites.

    Trump, Musk and Tucker are the very definition of well off elites. Are you saying Americans had an issue with the message these people were saying?

  22. Trump will end up with about the same number of votes as he lost the 2020 election with. He is a bit short atm.

    2020 Biden 81.3 Million Votes Trump 74.2 Million
    2024 Harris 69.1 Million Votes Trump 73.4 Million

    Where the Dem bleeding happened I don’t know as yet, but if it was in Penn, NC, MI etc ? who knows what the result might have been.

    Clearly that didn’t happen.

    Plenty of “reasons” being put forward for the Dem loss – but I haven’t seen it backed by data.

    Does anyone have data – gender, ethnicity etc for the Dem Bleeding and obviously the States where it happened ?

  23. meher baba,
    I’m guessing you’ve been on the main thread most of the day where they’re likely making a big deal about Kevin Rudd’s opinion of Donald Trump?

    Well, let me just say that the opinion you hold (as a result), is not the one that the former Ambassador to the US holds and I’m with him because he knows what he’s talking about when it comes to Trump and the Trump Administration:

    Australia’s former US ambassador Joe Hockey has backed Kevin Rudd to continue his posting as Australia’s current ambassador despite backlash stemming from Mr Rudd’s past critique of US President-elect Donald Trump.

    Speaking on Sunrise, the former Liberal treasurer said he believed Mr Rudd was “inherently a good man” and had performed well in the role and called on people to “move on” from the criticism.

    “He’s been working really hard for Australia here in Washington, DC,” Mr Hockey said.

    “I don’t think President Trump or any of his team (are) in a position to say they won’t work with our ambassador. I think it’s really important they do.”

    Mr Hockey also said Mr Rudd had Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s “trust and confidence”, which was a critical aspect of the role.

    “An ambassador and a prime minister need to be hand in glove, particularly given that we’re in very different time zones … Kevin Rudd has been working at it,” Mr Hockey said.

    “It’s been a source of so much talk and conjecture in Australia, let’s all move on.

    “Let’s just make it work and whether you Liberal or Labor, Green or Pauline Hanson, whatever you are, we’ve got to be all Team Australia.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/joe-hockey-backs-kevin-rudd-as-us-ambassador-says-people-should-move-on-from-criticism/news-story/979936b9e49acc0a28cfc496456b58ab

    Sheesh! Talk about Trump Appeasement Syndrome!

  24. Centre @ #1717 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 6:17 pm

    I don’t think the likes of Taylor Swift or other celebrities endorsing Harris worked that well.

    Middle Americans may not have appreciated being told who to vote for by the well-off elites.

    Many women voted for Trump. I’m prepared to give Trump time before making judgement. Let’s see if he can deliver and stop the Russian/Ukrainian conflict.

    Do you know what the definition of the ‘well-off elites’ in America is?

    Donald Trump
    MElon Musk
    Peter Thiel
    Glenn Youngkin
    The Captains of the Oil and Gas Industry

    But you were talking about the intellectual elites, weren’t you?

    Maybe you should invest in trepanning tools then so that we can all be lobotomised and learn to love Trump as much as you do?

  25. ”Middle Americans may not have appreciated being told who to vote for by the well-off elites.”

    Who the hell is Trump then? Billions in inherited wealth which despite his incompetence he hasn’t managed to squander. Others took the fall for him. And his boosters – Musk, Theil, Koch, Bezos and our own Gina. A couple of real life Bond villains in that lot. They’re the oligarchs, the real elites.

    The likes of Trump despise the intellectual and cultural elites because they can see through their bullshit.

    The Movie idiocracy comes to mind, although the President in that movie, while an idiot, unlike Trump was well-intentioned.

    The real elites are going to screw the USA, especially the common folk and working class whose interests they claim to be championing, big time.

  28. ”Shall we open a sweep on how long the new CoS lasts? I’ll go 18 months.”

    That long? If she’s smart and gives frank and fearless advice, probably closer to 18 days.

  30. Went out of my way tonight to make a chart of how each state has swung so far compared to 2024. Almost every state swung to Trump.

    Might be some errors since I haven’t double-checked.

  31. C@T no offence but what does jill stein have to do with anything in this entire discussion thread?

    I know you dont know but the Green party in the USA are pro-deregulation and pro-free market healthcare. Hardly leftist positions. I couldnt even tell you if they have a position on the climate.

    If you think that progressive policy has no place in the world, or even the USA (despite what we’ve seen with Tlaib and Whitmer like I mentioned before, or hell Roy Cooper), then honestly why are you posting?

  32. People disputing the idea that the democrats are now the party of elites presumably have greater political minds than David Axelrod, who like many has made the same unremarkable point in his post election comments.

    What makes Axelrod stand out is his amusing observation that when democrats speak to the non tertiary educated working class they present like missionaries – “we’re here to help you become more like us”.

    Unsurprisingly, like poor people that encounter missionaries all over the world, many of the working class tell them to piss off and leave them alone

  33. Bean @ #1731 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 7:24 pm

    C@T no offence but what does jill stein have to do with anything in this entire discussion thread?

    I know you dont know but the Green party in the USA are pro-deregulation and pro-free market healthcare. Hardly leftist positions. I couldnt even tell you if they have a position on the climate.

    If you think that progressive policy has no place in the world, or even the USA (despite what we’ve seen with Tlaib and Whitmer like I mentioned before, or hell Roy Cooper), then honestly why are you posting?

    I’m posting because this is a forum open to anyone, at the discretion of the Moderator, thanks for asking.

    Also, I’m actually the one who has advocated for Roy Cooper here. Also, I think I have a point when I say that the appeal of Rashida Tlaib is very limited. You can like her positions but you can’t say with a straight face that she would be a good choice to lead a Democratic Presidential campaign.

    As far as Jill Stein is concerned, there were enough people in America who voted for her to let me know that she was popular with those on the Left who disdained the Democratic Party as being too ‘Centrist’ or war pigs, or whatever. When, in fact, it’s Jill Stein who associates with the pre-eminent war monger of our times, Putin. But that’s okay if you don’t support her. May I suggest you would like Tim Walz then?

    Anyway, just so you know, I am very Progressive in a large % of my positions, I’m just also a realist as well and I wholeheartedly support getting parties of government from the Left INTO government.

  37. I reckon Andy Beshear, the current Governor of Kentucky should have a go at being the Democratic nominee for President in 2028.

    He won twice in a red state. He gets how to win things in those places, and if anything the Democrats need to learn how to connect with rural voters like he does. Plus he’s term-limited as Governor, so he’ll be out after 2027 anyway. And he’s only 46, so plenty of years left in his political career.

  38. Kirsdarke @ #1730 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 7:23 pm

    Went out of my way tonight to make a chart of how each state has swung so far compared to 2024. Almost every state swung to Trump.

    OK But his total votes are about the same as 2020, but this year he got the votes in the right counties/ states to get EC votes.

    In which states/ counties did the “lost” dems votes bleed ?

    Do you have that ?

  39. dave @ #1738 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 8:08 pm

    Kirsdarke @ #1730 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 7:23 pm

    Went out of my way tonight to make a chart of how each state has swung so far compared to 2024. Almost every state swung to Trump.

    OK But his total votes are about the same as 2020, but this year he got the votes in the right counties/ states to get EC votes.

    In which states/ counties did the “lost” dems votes bleed ?

    Do you have that ?

    Not at the moment, we’ll have to wait for all the votes to come in for that, which will probably be in another couple of weeks.

    But once that data is in, I’ll probably make a similar chart.

  41. Kirsdarke: “I reckon Andy Beshear, the current Governor of Kentucky should have a go at being the Democratic nominee for Pre”sident in 2028.

    He looks fabulous on paper. But have a look at him speaking on YouTube. I reckon that, like Roy Cooper, he lacks the sort of spark that one sees in the likes of Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom and (even though I still can’t stand her smile) Gretchen Whitmer.

  42. Either way, polling is probably dead in the USA for now. Pretty much everyone got it wrong, almost everywhere voted higher for Republicans than predicted.

  43. I reckon Andy Beshear, the current Governor of Kentucky should have a go at being the Democratic nominee for President in 2028.

    People keep mentioning him, but he comes across as fake and insincere.

  44. Dems lost votes across most Blue states

    The Red wall strengthened in most states.

    MI turned Red from Blue, as did Penn & NV, NC was stronger Red

    NJ MX NJ much weaker blue

    The EC lost votes almost accounted for ?

    I’m sure there is more…pretty bloody obvious I suppose apart from the “where” and now we have it.

    Good data Kirsdarke

    Ta 🙂

  45. Meher Baba ” But, as I pointed out earlier, Trump, like Caligula, is capable of turning suddenly against anyone, even Australia, the US’s most consistent ally since WWII. ”

    If he does then so be it. He’s a petty man with lots of power. We shouldn’t suck up to him.

  46. meher baba @ #1741 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 8:21 pm

    Kirsdarke: “I reckon Andy Beshear, the current Governor of Kentucky should have a go at being the Democratic nominee for Pre”sident in 2028.

    He looks fabulous on paper. But have a look at him speaking on YouTube. I reckon that, like Roy Cooper, he lacks the sort of spark that one sees in the likes of Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom and (even though I still can’t stand her smile) Gretchen Whitmer.

    Yet there’s still problems with those candidates as well. Gavin Newsom would be just another San Francisco Californian Elite to the voters the Democrats need to win back. Josh Shapiro probably wasn’t chosen as the VP Nominee because of murky kompromat the Republicans would only be eager to release. And Gretchen Whitmer is a woman, so that obviously won’t work with how the US Electorate is now.

  48. Here’s a scary map, how much more difficult the Electoral College looks like it’s going to be for the Democrats after 2030.

    Blue States: -11 (CA-4, OR-1, IL-2, NY-3, RI-1)
    Red States: +10 (ID+1, UT+1, TN+1, TX+4, FL+3)
    Purple States: +1 (PA-1, MN-1, AZ+1, NC+1, GA+1)

    That’s pretty much an entire swing state extra that they need to win the White House in 2032.

    Democrats need a very deep structural change from the top to the bottom to fix where they are now.

  50. Trump trod water. The Dems sank a bit.
    There could be a tidal wave next time. There’s no knowing who will be swallowed up.

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