Live Commentary
11:31am In the House, three uncalled races have only two Dem candidates and one has only two Rep candidates. Adding those to called seats gives Reps a 205-190 lead over Dems with 218 needed for a majority.
9:48am Thursday Trump is very likely to win the last two uncalled states in Arizona and Nevada, for a 312-226 Electoral College victory. That would give him all his 2016 states plus Nevada. In the national popular vote, Trump leads currently by 50.9-47.4. The NYT needle gave him a 1.5% popular vote margin in its forecast.
In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-44 lead over Democrats with four races undecided. An independent who caucuses with Dems will win Maine, Reps lead narrowly in Pennsylvania and Nevada with some votes outstanding, and Dems lead narrowly in Arizona with many votes outstanding.
In the House, Reps lead Dems by 204-186 with 45 uncalled. A majority is achieved with 218 seats, so Reps are well ahead.
9:46pm In the House, Republicans currently lead by 196 to 176 with 218 needed for a majority. Many undecided seats are in California and other states with mail to count.
9:37pm CNN has called a Trump win in Wisconsin, where he leads by 49.8-48.8 with 99% counted. This puts him over the 270 electoral votes needed; he now has 276. However, that last count from Wisconsin has put the Dem ahead in the Senate, and the Dem will win that seat.
6:20pm Here’s my article for The Conversation on today’s results. The polls understated Trump again, and he performed particularly well in racially diverse states compared to 2020.
4:34pm The NY Times says Florida, New Jersey and New York, which all have diverse racial populations, are likely to shift 9-10 points more Republican compared with 2020.
4:22pm The NY Times has called a Republican win in the Senate, with a 51-42 current lead over Democrats. Republicans are currently leading in another four states that haven’t been called. This may get very ugly for Democrats.
2:55pm The NY Times needle now gives Trump an 87% chance of winning, and has him winning in all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It’s also looking grim for Democrats in both the Senate and House.
1:51pm The NY Times needle overall now gives Trump a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Trump at a 56% chance to win Pennsylvania. Once again, the US polls appear to have understated Trump. The national popular vote prediction is Harris by 0.3 points.
1:18pm Trump now has a 76% win prob according to the NY Times Needle in both Georgia and NC. Harris will need to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn, all states in which her win prob is currently about 50-50.
1:04pm Texas has been called for Trump and he now leads Harris by 154 electoral votes to 27. It’s not a good sign for Harris that Illinois and New York haven’t been called for her as soon as polls closed.
12:57pm In CNN’s map, Trump has won 105 electoral votes to 27 for Harris. The NY Times Needle gives Trump a 72% chance in Georgia and a 62% chance in N Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 52% chance. Harris’ margins are likely to be reduced from Biden 2020 in Virginia and New Hampshire.
12:31pm The NY Times Needle is working. It gives Trump a 71% chance to win Georgia, 57% in North Carolina and 52% in Pennsylvania.
12:27pm With 50% reporting in Georgia, Trump leads by 55-44. It’s difficult to see Harris pulling back that lead.
12:05pm With all polls now closed in Florida, Trump is called the winner. He now leads Harris by 90 electoral votes to 27, with 270 needed to win.
11:58am In completed Georgian counties so far, there’s a small shift to Trump. Harris will need good numbers in more urhan regions.
11:47am NY Times says Trump getting swings in his favour in completed counties so far in Kentucky and Indiana. But these are rural counties.
11:40am A suburban Indiana county has Trump’s margin down from 18% since 2020 to 10% with 91% reporting.
11:35am Harry Enten on CNN says Harris is running about 0.5 points behind Biden in mostly completed counties so far.
11:33am Trump has a small lead in Virginia with 2% in. Rural counties tend to report faster in that state.
11:22am With 53% counted in Florida, Trump leads by 53.8-45.3. Trump wins Miami Dade county (a strongly Hispanic county in south Florida) by 55-44 with 70% in.
11:10am Kentucky has been called for Trump and Vermont for Harris. With 18% already in in Florida, Trump leads by 52-47.
10:16am The first results are in from Kentucky and Indiana, and Trump has big leads as expected in those states. These states are split across time zones, and won’t be called until 11am. CNN has the results.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The first polls for the US presidential election close at 10am AEDT today, with polls in the key states closing from 11am. See Monday’s guide in The Conversation for more information on poll closing times and whether initial results in a state will favour Kamala Harris or Donald Trump relative to the final results.
In Nate Silver’s final aggregate of national polls, Harris has a 48.6-47.6 lead over Trump (48.5-47.8 in my Conversation article on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9. In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote.
Trump “leads” by 0.1 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes),. With a 0.6-point lead in Nevada (six), one-point leads in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and a 2.4-point lead in Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 287-251. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College by a narrow 270-268. Harris leads by one point in Wisconsin (ten) and Michigan (15).
There’s been a little late surge to Harris in win probabilities. Silver’s model gives Harris a 50% chance to win (Trump had a 53% win probability on Monday), while FiveThirtyEight also gives her a 50% chance. It’s a coin flip election, and if the polls are not completely accurate, one candidate could win decisively.
Harris needs at least a two-point win in the national popular vote to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model. Silver’s model is forecasting Harris wins the popular vote by 2.1 points (it aggregates state polls for this result instead of relying on national polls). There’s a 27% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.
Congressional elections will also be held concurrently. All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years; its 435 single-member seats are distributed on a population basis. Republicans won a 222-213 House majority at the 2022 midterm elections. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.3-45.6 lead over Republicans, a drop for Republicans from a 46.2-46.1 Democratic lead last Thursday.
There are two senators for each of the 50 states, and senators have six-year terms with one-third up every two years. Democrats and allied independents have a 51-49 Senate majority, but are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including three in states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.
Republicans are certain to gain West Virginia and very likely to gain Montana, where they have a seven-point lead in FiveThirtyEight averages. In Ohio, a late swing to Republicans has them 0.7 points ahead after Democrats led by 1.6 points last Thursday. Republicans have a two-point lead against an independent in Nebraska, while Democrats have a two-point lead in Wisconsin. In all other states, the incumbent party is at least three points ahead. If the polls are correct, Republicans will gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio and take a 52-48 Senate majority.
Since last Thursday, Democrats have gained in the FiveThirtyEight House forecast, but Republicans in the Senate. Democrats have a 51% chance to gain control of the House, up from 47% Thursday. But Republicans have a 92% chance to gain control of the Senate, up from 89%.
CNN’s app gives access to its magic wall for results.
Mostly Interested on Tues at 8.27 pm
My guess is Harris 314 EC votes to Trump 224, an increase of 8 for Dems cf. to 2020.
Trump to lose Iowa and North Carolina but regain Arizona. Harris to win Georgia as well as Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and (just) Michigan.
So, with roughly ten hours until results start coming in, here is my final prediction:
I have no goddamn idea.
Things are just so tight, both in nationwide and statewide polling, and that combined with the likelihood that there will be a polling error of some form – which could potentially go the 2016 and 2020 direction of favouring the GOP, or the 2022 and more recent special elections direction of favouring the Democrats – and the ever-present wildcards of voter turnout and the various Republican efforts to suppress turnout in certain demographics, and the advantage the Republicans have in the electoral college, all lead me to the conclusion that we could plausibly see a wide variety of different outcomes, including comfortable victories for either side and anything in-between.
The occasional misteps aside, Harris has generally performed well during the campaign – particularly during the debates – and no matter how things go tomorrow, I think the switch to her from Biden was absolutely the right move, whereas Trump has just sunk to new depths of unhinged madness, vile racist dogwhistling, truly ominous fascist messanging, and general, er, Trump-ness. In a sane world, you’d expect an almighty landslide for Harris, but this is the United States in 2024, so, er… yeah.
Desperately hoping for a Harris victory and some good results for the Democrats in the House and Senate, but also mentally preparing myself for the worst.
If Trump does win, the US has some very strange and dark times ahead. This isn’t 2016, where the Republican caucuses in the House and Senate were mostly the relatively sane old guard and Trump was bound by the realities of congressional confirmations to appoint a bunch of similar old-school neocons to his cabinet. The GOP is Trump’s party now, and if they win majorities in the House and Senate, most of them will happily waive through whatever yes-men and crackpots and wannabe fascists he nominates. And I don’t even want to contemplate what happens if there’s a vacancy in the supreme court… let’s just hope Elena Cagan and Sonya Sontomeyer are in very good health!
I’m guessing Harris holds the blue wall but loses the sun belt 270-268
We could be waiting days for the result
My final Prediction is 312 Trump, so his 2016 Result + Nevada. The early voting data is really bad for the dems, and I don’t see enough evidence of high female turnout to turn things around.
I really hope I am wrong! I would love for Kamala to be US President, but with the information currently available I don’t see it happening.
I no longer believe that Donald Trump will win. Of the seven swing states, I think Kamala will win Wisconsin and Michigan and Trump will win Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. My guess is that the bellwether states will be Pennsylvania and North Carolina. If Kamala wins both of those she wins the election. If Trump wins one of them he wins the election. Trump campaigned especially poorly in the final week of the campaign even by his low standards. Way too much focus on his grievances. No attempt to reach out to voters. I think that Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Texas will remain red states in this election but by 2028 some of or all of them will be swing states.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/elections-2024/electoral-calculator
Sheezus, this election is disturbing my sleeping patterns.
Ok, the serious battle lines are drawn!
According to the introduction, Silver’s model and FiveThirtyEight give Harris a 50% chance of winning. It’s a coin flip, and if the polls are not accurate, one candidate could win decisively.
Well, the markets are tipping just that:
Trump 61%
Harris 39%
The prices from the betting agencies that matter are rock solid for Trump.
Which is the more accurate, the polls or the betting markets? We are going to finally find out!
The tip – Donald to get this over and done with more quickly than some expect 😉
Sheezus, this election is disturbing my sleeping patterns.
Centre I am with you there, it’s been brutal
not too long now
Republican cannibal theory is getting some early traction out there
Trump was trying to warn us by constantly praising Hannibal Lecter during the campaign.
“Voter turnout is extremely high,” said Philadelphia Democratic Party Chairman Robert Brady, the former congressman. “I’ve been doing elections for 50 years chair and I’ve been chairman for 40 years and right now it’s the highest we’ve ever seen for this point in time. A high turnout is great for us.”
Brady was sitting in party headquarters in the West Ward this morning as ward leaders called in or came in and gave him the news. “They’re wrapped around the building everywhere over here in African American neighborhoods.”
Wake up bludgers, today’s the day!
Lines in Tulsa
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/5/2282919/-Lines-in-Tulsa?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“I mailed my ballot in two weeks ago to avoid having to stand in line, not that lines are generally very long at my hard-right suburb here in Tulsa. This morning, I went out for groceries, which takes me by my polling place (a fungelical church I would otherwise never enter). At about 11AM, there must have been between two and three hundred people in line outside the building, and the parking lot had over-flowed into the adjacent streets. In the three elections I’ve voted in this precinct, I’ve never once seen the lines outside the building.
Ordinarily my subdivision—to say nothing of the adjacent city streets—would be jammed with Trump signs. There are signs for the hard right candidate for the legislature, but otherwise none to be seen. Certainly, none for Trump, at least on my short route to the grocery store and back.
I’m certain Trump will carry Oklahoma—and my precinct—by double digits, but possibly not by 20+ points like the last two times. Still, the long lines indicate enthusiasm to vote, even when the outcome is almost certainly pre-determined in a place like Oklahoma.”
Final Zogby Polling Shows Harris Leads by 3.7 %
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/5/2282937/-Final-Zogby-Polling-Shows-Harris-Leads-by-3-7?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web
“Pollster John Zogby’s final poll has good news for the Harris campaign. Harris’s lead in the John Zogby Strategies poll, however, is within the margin-of-sampling error.
Zogby’s poll has a number of mild surprises. The poll shows Harris Harris appears underperforming with 18- to 29-year-olds nationally.Trump is leading among younger voters, capturing 47% of the vote, while Harris polls at 45%, which I find a little hard to believe. The poll claims that Harris leads among older voters, those over 65 with a 58%-39% margin.
Another area of surprise is married people, who have often voted Republican. Trump won married voters by only four points Harris won among non-married people by eight points (51%-43%) Amazingly, the poll suggests married women are more likely to vote for Harris, which is a real shock.
The poll shows Harris doing well with white votes trailing by five points trailing 51% to 46%. The poll claims that Harris only has 73& of African American votes and that Trump leads among Hispanic by four points, 48% to 44%.
As with all polls, we should take these numbers with a grain of salt.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/05/elections-polling-data-trump-harris
Good morning bludgers all. Here’s hoping that things go Harris’s way today (which means they’ll also go the right way for many other people around the world, including the Ukrainians and the Taiwanese).
If, as I fear, things do not turn out so well, I hope all of you who feel so strongly about the election take care not to let the outcome have too deleterious an effect on your mental well-being. Remember that after all the evil was released from Pandora’s box, hope still remained.
Election night watchlist:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JFHQfIWG9YTOuWWYf8yG-IODzctF_1GFkSwJxn5Dcos/htmlview?usp=sharing
PS. My earlier post was an admonition to myself as much as anything.
If Trump wins, I’ll probably go troppo. Worse luck, I’ve got minor surgery tomorrow so I can’t drink any grog.
Will be interesting to see how many more of the requested Mail Ballots end up being returned –
National Statistics
Total Early Votes: 85,612,846 •
In-Person Early Votes: 46,746,952 •
Mail Ballots Returned: 39,096,197 •
Mail Ballots Requested: 67,402,306
Last updated: Nov 5, 2024 @ 1:31pm Eastern Time
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Jeez they’re going all out to try and sow the seeds of doubt about the election.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/05/election-day-polling-monitors-justice-department-missouri-texas/
Good morning all. Useful thought, Meher. The sun will rise tomorrow, come what may.
Best of luck with your minor op.
Morning, I’ll close off collecting predictions at 8am.
Looks like the early turnout advantage the Republicans had is flat-lining.
And wasn’t Kirk running one of Trump’s outsourced turnout operations?
Whilst the Presidential outcome is unknown, unless all the polls are wrong the political outcome is a certain disaster.
That a convicted fraudster could even be a plausible candidate for President tells of a sick state of affairs.
The Republicans will have control of the Senate. The only hope is that the dems win the HoRs. If Harris wins and both houses are (Trump) republicans, expect chaos.
WTF?
BW: “Good morning all. Useful thought, Meher. The sun will rise tomorrow, come what may.
Best of luck with your minor op.”
——————————————————————————
Thanks. It’s under a general anaesthetic, so not that minor really. But only day surgery still the same. How medicine has changed over my lifetime!
I’m not sure what I’m dreading more: today’s results or tomorrow’s operation!
As per CNN
Final Early voting numbers:
83.793 millions voters
Fess: “WTF?”
Let’s hope they have digital clocks in the polling stations. Analog ones would make things even more confusing for the poor young things!
meher
Hello from France, and thanks for your very good advice.
We had our soiree at Le comptoir des Sports, from around 5 -7 pm, as usual. All of us are sitting in tenterhooks, and very concerned.
It is particularly poignant here in le Sud-Ouest. While our French friends were born after WWII, their parents lived through Vichy, as did my OH’s mother. And our English friends, their parents also went through WWII.
We talked about how people must have felt in the 1930s, listening to democracy falling in Germany, on the wireless (I am thinking about my father’s memories as a young boy here), and the march to war.
But history rhymes, rather than repeating, and I hope the shift to authoritarianism in the world, and most particularly in the US, does not this time result in a world-destroying conflagration .
While from the ashes of WWII, the world enjoyed the greatest reduction in inequality ever, that does not negate the absolute horror that WWII brought to so many people.
Anyway, there was a faint hope tonight that the women’s vote against Trump has been underestimated.
Also, good luck with your minor surgery.
meher:
What a time to have surgery that takes you off the grid for a whole day!
FL and GA Secretary of States are expecting the results for their respective States to be declared by midnight local time.
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 6:23 am
WTF?
Erin Burnett@ErinBurnett
·
29m
Nevada SOS tells @StephanieElam two crucial things: #ElectionDay Nevada is seeing a surge in young voters … which is causing signature curing issues bc young voters aren’t used to signing names.
”
That is true. My daughter had issues with replicating same signature. I think she could do it now. She is Uni student and works part time.
Ven @ #33 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 6:40 am
My son realised he’d never be able to do a cursive writing signature so he came up with a unique printing style one. Which he uses all the time online with Docu Sign. 🙂
Fess: “What a time to have surgery that takes you off the grid for a whole day!”
—————————————————————————-
Well, I’m assuming the election result will either be clear today or else, if it’s close, not for another week or so. So hopefully tomorrow won’t be that critical.
Confessions @ #24 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 6:17 am
There’s only so many mindless dipsticks per country, Charlie. 😐
meher baba,
Good luck with the surgery. If you hear a cheer from the nurses and doctor’s station you’ll know everything’s okay, they’re usually on the side of the angels. Also, just watch it on the ABC when you get back to the Ward. It’s going to be a long night. 🙂
Confessions @ #20 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 6:06 am
FMD!
Though I note that the Justice Department, the FBI and the CIA were ready for this.
Morning all. Best wishes to Meher Baba for your procedure. May you emerge to a saner world.
Happily I have work to do this morning to take my mind off this. I will emerge around 11AM to see how the count is going.
DJT just got halted on NASDAQ after plunging 10% in a couple of minutes
Ven,
Re Tulsa. I’m watching ‘Tulsa King’ with Sly Stallone at the moment and it seems to me that there are a lot of African-Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, and since they legalised weed, Stoner Entrepreneurs and their staff. So, as well as having well-off horsey set and gated community people and farmers, there’s a changing demographic.
I saw a rumour that Raffensperger has already rejected six phone calls from Trump today
Time to put in a prediction: Harris 319 / Trump 219.
Having lived in and around DC for three years, my experience is that Americans are enthusiastic and well informed about their freedoms and their responsibilities to themselves and their communities.
Women will come out in force today.
What are people watching today? I found this, but is there a better one?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/05/us-election-results-2024-live-donald-trump-kamala-harris-president
I wish it was tomorrow already.
”
Omar Comin’says:
Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 6:53 am
DJT just got halted on NASDAQ after plunging 10% in a couple of minutes
”
Oh no!
c@t and fess: thanks for the kind thoughts, but as I said, my surgery isn’t until tomorrow afternoon, so hopefully I won’t need any updates from the hospital staff.
My problem today is that I can’t have a few wines to calm my nerves.
Eston Kohver @ #43 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 6:59 am
Exactly. I found the majority of them across the country, even in the backwoods of Pennsylvania and Oregon where there was still the odd Trump sign up even in May, to be courteous and intellectually curious.
Ven it just resumed and plunged another 10% and got halted again
Hey Eston Kohver long time no see. I hope life is treating you well.
—————————————————————————–
“Having lived in and around DC for three years, my experience is that Americans are enthusiastic and well informed about their freedoms and their responsibilities to themselves and their communities.”
——————————————————————————
Well I’m confident that the people of DC are like this. But I believe they only get 3 electoral college votes.
CNN: Live coverage of Fulton County, Georgia.
People are in and out of polling stations in quick time.
Raffensperger said that wait time is about 49 secs.
Could it be because 54 % Registered Georgian voters casted their vote in early voting?
In 2020, 76% registered Georgian voters casted their vote in all.