The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor bouncing back three points on the primary vote after a four-point slump last time, to 31%, with the Coalition down a point to 34%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up two to 9%, with the undecided component down a point to 5%. Labor’s improvement does not flow through to the 2PP+ measure, on which the Coalition’s lead shifts from 48-46 to 49-47. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1131.
Further results offer particularly interesting results on the US election, finding a distinctly narrow lead for Kamala Harris of 41% to 33% for Donald Trump when respondents were asked how they would vote if they could. Even more strikingly, respondents were uniformly positive in relation to four of Trump’s key talking points: 60% agreed that “globalisation has gone too far, we need to protect local workers with tariffs on foreign goods”, with only 11% disagreeing; 59% that “government is fundamentally corrupt and politics has been taken over by vested interests”, with 15% disagreeing; 59% that “a deep state of unelected officials has too much control”, with 10% disagreeing; and 59% that “illegal immigrants should be deported”, with 19% disagreeing. Conversely, 41% felt abortion should be legal in all cases, 38% in most, 14% illegal in most cases, and only 7% illegal in all cases.
Substantial majorities also rated that politicians should not accept complimentary flight upgrades and access to airline lounges, sporting events and concerts. Essential Research executive director Peter Lewis connects the dots in an analysis piece for The Guardian:
Regardless of the US result, what does all this mean for Albanese’s Labor? Winning power at a time when people have lost faith in government is a poisoned chalice; in your success you become the problem. This is why the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge allegations against the prime minister have had such salience; the idea that those in control have special access and special privileges feeds this populist backlash.
Housing crisis
I have a friend looking to buy an apartment in Zetland, Sydney
I worked some numbers for him.
Apartment cost $1million
Loan $800,000 repayments $ 1250/ week
Deposit $200,000
Out goings $151/week Levy / Rates
Total cost $1400/ week
Risk of defects & Special levy to cover repairs $???
Purchase Cost $ 72,000 pa Plus intrest you lose on your $200,000 deposit $10,000
Capital gain Zetland 2% pa if you are lucky.. $20,000pa
If you rented the same apartment you would pay $900 / week..
Why on earth would you buy the apartment.. any apartment?
Sceptic it will never work where capital growth is 2% pa.
So Wong and Marles met with Pompeo last week presumably on DFAT advice to build a relationship with the new Administration in Washington – and today Pompeo was rejected by Trump.
Surely DFAT / Rudd etc are meant to anticipate these things? Clearly not.
davidwh says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 8:33 pm
Sceptic it will never work where capital growth is 2% pa.
Apartment capital gain anywhere in Sydney is around 2% plus a bit.. This is why the housing crisis discussion is so shallow.. The model isn’t broken, it never worked.
Sceptic as President Xi Jingping says “ a home is for living in not for investing”
Actually, even in the Australian system there are circumstances when tactical voting can make sense – the Greens would have won South Brisbane in the Queensland election if 150 Greens voters had instead voted LNP (thus putting the LNP ahead of Labor and getting the Greens elected on Labor preferences). Hard to predict this ahead of time in many cases though.
Sceptic gross ROI 4.5% and capital growth of 2%
Not a great idea to buy to rent.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 8:44 pm
Sceptic as President Xi Jingping says “ a home is for living in not for investing”
The conundrum the Greens don’t understand, as a purchaser without inflation & Capital gain you can never get out from under the debt trap.. it’s almost impossible at the beginning until you pay down the debt so intrest payment isn’t too high.. it has always been that way.
As for “ a home is for living in not for investing”.. that’s a total con to get you into the debt trap..
Emotion isn’t a good enough reason to pay 70% more than you need to.
$35 billion inflation anyone?
That’s the cost of the contract state labor in Debt ridden Victoria have signed recently for railways to where?
That gets state debt over 200 billion in a few years.
The Age reports tonight state labor tried to get fed labor to raise the age of temp visa eligibility to get yet more foreign workers into Victoria.
Anyone know the interest bill on 200 billion?
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 7:52 pm
The braying was done by Benjamin who was the only one who knew what was going on. Boxer just neighed.
_____________
Which was the one who claimed to be independent and just winked all the time?
dave @ #910 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 9:11 pm
That was Bowen, I think.
Zetland is probs not a good example – massive overdevelopment. There is better capital growth in eastern suburbs for example but of course you may pay more to get in.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 9:12 pm
dave @ #910 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 9:11 pm
Which was the one who claimed to be independent and just winked all the time?
That was Bowen, I think.
___________________________
I think it was Griff, a cocker spaniel who followed Boxer around every day.
Pompeo won’t be part of the new administration, and Rudd would’ve/should’ve/could’ve known that.
Perhaps Rudd was excluded from discussions. Suggests he’s already been “cut off” from comms.
I wasn’t aware the Deputy PM and Foreign Minister visited last week, but if it’s true I’d say they spoke to Rudd and advised him “time is up”.
Australian’s value the US relationship as highly as they do the UK relationship.
Albo is aware too. So is Dutton, and he’ll raise it soon if Rudd doesn’t go. ie: “Rudd is a threat” etc
What was it Rudd called Trump – a traitor.
I can’t imagine Rudd will last much longer.
Shorten would do a better job. He’s available
pied pipersays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 9:10 pm
$35 billion inflation anyone?
That’s the cost of the contract state labor in Debt ridden Victoria have signed recently for railways to where?
__________________
I think Victoria should implement an income tax levy. If we want to be the best state, which we clearly are, the population should pay a premium.
Scepticsays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 8:29 pm
Housing crisis
I have a friend looking to buy an apartment in Zetland, Sydney
I worked some numbers for him.
Apartment cost $1million
Loan $800,000 repayments $ 1250/ week
Deposit $200,000
Out goings $151/week Levy / Rates
Total cost $1400/ week
Risk of defects & Special levy to cover repairs $???
Purchase Cost $ 72,000 pa Plus intrest you lose on your $200,000 deposit $10,000
Capital gain Zetland 2% pa if you are lucky.. $20,000pa
If you rented the same apartment you would pay $900 / week..
Why on earth would you buy the apartment.. any apartment?
————————-
add quarterly strata fees that never get talked about.
The only solution as I see it to the housing crisis assuming it doesn’t just crash at some point is for the govt to become a much large player in public housing again and/or to implement much stricter controls on rent. The situation as it stands is insane and completely unsustainable, a society cannot function properly when only those who are rich or have inherited property can afford it. The “free market” has created a society destroying situation.
nadia88says:
Shorten would do a better job. He’s available
__________________
Shorten has called Trump ‘barking mad’ and ‘entirely unsuitable to be leader of the free world’.
Victoria $200billion x 4.75% current bond rate = $9.5 billion pa interest
If there is a 50 year bond then capital repayment is $4billion pa
So cost to the Vic budget is $13.5 billion which will reduce as the capital is reduced
dave @ #918 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 9:21 pm
I think Trump’s plan is to make it no longer free. And that he and Musk each get a percentage.
davesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 9:21 pm
nadia88says:
Shorten would do a better job. He’s available
__________________
Shorten has called Trump ‘barking mad’ and ‘entirely unsuitable to be leader of the free world’.
====================
Yes you’re right. Oh well, back to the drawing board.
dave says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 9:15 pm
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 9:12 pm
dave @ #910 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 9:11 pm
Which was the one who claimed to be independent and just winked all the time?
That was Bowen, I think.
___________________________
I think it was Griff, a cocker spaniel who followed Boxer around every day.
_______________
You are obviously struggling with impulse control again 😉
In fact the housing market has not “worked” since the period between 2000 and 2010 when what we borrowed from our home mortgage lenders increased from $335 Billion to $1.226 Trillion (an increase of 350%) This is RBA data
The only reason the housing market held together was because of the sub prime lending crisis, the economic fall out from this then the Pandemic which events saw interest rates at historic lows never before seen, including with a nought in front of them
Any extension of the inflation which saw interest rates increasing into the 2007 Election, the 10 Year Bond Yield with a 7 in front of it, would have seen a “housing crisis” from 2008. But along came the sub prime lending crisis and the rapid decline in interest rates, seeing the home mortgage debt at least serviceable from that time and onwards until 2021 and inflation, driving the Cash Rate up to a paltry 4.35% and a “crisis” because of the sheer size of our home mortgage debt
There has to be the possibility that Unit/house prices will not grow at the 2% referred to but actually decline. We have not seen house prices actually fall for many a year (since the early 1990’s?) but the facts are that matters conspire and lead to a decline in real estate valuations the only question being when will we see this next? And my guess is that the “next” will be a marginal decline in real estate valuations because of the inflation band Central Banks administer so what Central Banks are doing to combat entrenched and increasing inflation over the band is making things more difficult but is actually saving us from a real crisis (entrenched and increasing inflation). So there you go
Can we go backwards to the year 2000 and act differently to the cause for the increase in debt? No. All we can do is work the fundamentals we can influence so secure employment paying a fair days pay for a fair days work meaning we can continue to service our debt – wages increasing by a margin slightly in excess of band inflation to provide a discretionary spending margin and grow the economy so a long term, sustainable future
And Trump is transactional on the basis of something in it for him – then unpredictable to ensure he remains the centre of the attention and receives the publicity he craves over and above anything else
And therein lies the danger
Does it have to be a failed politician?
Thankyou for the math.Ok lesser number 4 billion err yikes!
Deepers are you an ex banker?
So holiday home -Albo-a nothing burger given below?
Newspoll 51-49 to Coalition
ALP 33 L-NP 40 Green 11 ON 5 IND/others 11
No major changes then.
“International events” and all.
Labor up a tick, LNP up a tick
Thanks HH!
New thread coming right up
Holdenhillbilly @ #926 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 9:32 pm
What a surprise. Not.
Albo -15 net sat.
nadia88says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 9:27 pm
davesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 9:21 pm
nadia88says:
Shorten would do a better job. He’s available
__________________
Shorten has called Trump ‘barking mad’ and ‘entirely unsuitable to be leader of the free world’.
====================
Yes you’re right. Oh well, back to the drawing board.
____________________________________
The problem is that anyone with half a brain has probably said a lot worse.
Even Vance has called Trump an ‘idiot’ and ‘reprehensible’.
So I don’t think Rudd is completely finished. As long as he genuflects, makes the appropriate contrition.
40 was the competitive number for the Coalition up until the Teals coming along.
Still looking like labour minority government
BT says:
Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 8:50 pm
Actually, even in the Australian system there are circumstances when tactical voting can make sense – the Greens would have won South Brisbane in the Queensland election if 150 Greens voters had instead voted LNP (thus putting the LNP ahead of Labor and getting the Greens elected on Labor preferences). Hard to predict this ahead of time in many cases though.
_____________________
BT – what if 500 Greens voters had voted, LNP? 1,000, 2,000? 5000? How are these 150 voters to know ahead of time that they re the only 150 going to do this masterstroke?? Theoretically, you are right, but it’s a nonsense argument.
Hard to believe things are this close in Labor’s first term and Dutton as OL. At 40% the Coalition becomes competitive.
33% for Labor isn’t too bad but it seems improbable that Labor + LNP would get 73% of the vote combined at an election now. At best they’ll match what they got in 2022.
I can’t stand by and not say something when our government is about to ban free political speech online. To force everyone to have their ID tied to their online comments they make, would have a crippling chilling effect on political dissent. Anonymity is at the heart of free speech. How are we meant to criticise the government – as I’m doing right now – if we have to show ID first and have a link created between our identities and our online commentary? Do you think I would be making this comment if I had my real name attached to it?
It’s not that I like social media or am ok with children being on there. I’m not. But at what cost to our freedoms and liberties – including our basic democratic right to criticise the government – do we limit that social media engagement? Of course children shouldn’t be on social media. But the answer is for parents to do their job properly as parents and monitor them online. And for there to be consequences for those parents if they do not – just the same as there are consequences for them if they are found to be providing them with alcohol, drugs, cigarettes, porn or other products that society deems unacceptable to be provided to children. The child protection system is where this should be dealth with, together with mandatory reporting requirements for teachers – not for the whole of society to lose our right to free political speech. Or for that matter, to lose other forms of anonymous speech such as on online health forums or victim support groups. Those forums rely on anonymous commentary or else people wouldn’t use them at all. How much do we have to lose in order to pander to parents who don’t want to do their jobs properly as parents?
How has Australia become this? How is it actually happening that our government is about to ban free political speech? And the compliant media is just quietly waving this through? Of course children shouldn’t be online, but we need balance in public policy. It’s overreach to ban anonymity online in response to bad parenting.
Nothing to worry about davidwh.
Its:
A) A normal mid term polling slump
B) Interest rate cuts are just around the corner
C) Wait till people understand what Dutton is really like
D) All of the above
New thread.
I’m going to be honest if I was Labor I’ll be pretty happy at least it ain’t the Queensland election I want to be surprised if lnp’s plan is to get as close as they can and then get the elect in 2028
International events usually drive the primary up for the majors. Will wait for the polling period, but I guess it’s last Weds thru to yesterday.
Interesting, tonight we’ve seen two polls where the Greens are tracking at 11%.
Boer has suggested this for quite some time. Greens seem to be trending down in Oz.
Business promotes a product so goods or services and invests into those products to achieve revenue and a net profit for the purpose of paying a dividend to the investors into the business and to retain profit for the purpose of future growth
Government has the obligation to provide to society including our future generations and to do so it generates revenue from tax – so a distribution from tax collections to such as pensioners, education, defence, infrastructure et al, which distribution receives no income
To equate business to government is a misnomer and totally so
That government carries debt, time in memorial is a fact and the result of the purpose of government and the obligations of government to future generations – that debt on Global Capital Markets (secured and costed by Risk Rating assessments) and Commonwealth Bonds the Coupons carrying a maturity date and the cost, this debt rolled over at maturity (noting government has sold assets such as utilities and services to the public for a consideration – so Telstra, aged care beds and the list of what has been sold goes on and on – so debt transferred to the private sector and to Shareholders being you and me receiving dividends on our investment such as Shares in Telstra)
Companies also carry debt time in memorial – which is why we have banks and Share Indices but they are assessed on profitability which government is not, reliant on tax receipts not a business model trading at profit
When referring to government debt the foregoing needs to be understood including that, unlike human beings, government is perpetual
Companies can fail so also are not necessarily perpetual
You can not compare government to human beings or business
“ If we want to be the best state, which we clearly are…”
Dream on dave