Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
Henry says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:36 pm
You may not care about female elite athletes, but plenty do. Imagine being a young girl who misses out on an Athletics scholarship to a prestigious University because you were beaten by a male. Imagine being a soccer player who suffers a major knee injury due to a tackle by a male player and miss out on opportunities. And that’s without addressing the issues of fairness or chamgerooms.
Prices for basic essentials have never been higher either. Those are more relevant to most people.
It is pointless to worry about polls, betting markets or any other predictions at this stage of the USA election. What will be will be.
And it is useless to try to save the wilfully ignorant from themselves.
If the USA votes in the Trump fascist , dishonourable, vile, lying, conman and convicted felon, and rapist to be their President, they will have to suffer the consequences.
So will other nations but we will all have to adapt to a world where the USA becomes a backward degenerate fascist state.
We may even need to take in asylum seekers from the USA.
It will be an interesting Tuesday.
C@t @ 8.51 pm
I don’t read anything on the back of bubble gum cards or take much notice of betting company promos.
I only respond to comments that are worth a reply…
Imagine being a young girl who misses out on an Athletics scholarship to a prestigious University because you were beaten by a male. Imagine being a soccer player who suffers a major knee injury due to a tackle by a male player and miss out on opportunities.
FUBAR frankly you lack imagination. As a red blooded conservative male with school aged daughters I live in fear of my own girls being legally forced to play rugby league against a male to female transgender PNG/QLD combined team. In fact I have terrible nightmares about it late at night when the ventilator mask that I am forced to wear due to my hyperobesity slips down onto my dewlap.
Democracy Sausage says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:22 pm
Anyone else noticed how the reporting on ABC News is blatantly pro Trump, most of all from Trump fangirl Barbara Miller. News 24 rarely puts on any Kamala Harris speeches or rallies, while Trump is shown endlessly.
I get more balanced news from SBS, or from Morning Joe which you can get live on youtube.
Yes, noticed that as well.
Also noted they seem to more often than not lead with a Federal Opposition story/position as well.
Kirky,
I watched Planet America last night and it was as unbiased as any program could be – good show.
Centre,
It has always been that way.
The vote share recorded by women in early voting, and the polled propensity of women to vote for Harris mean Harris should win in the aggregate around 53% of the votes in the swing States. Women comprise a majority of the eligible population. Women’s vote share will be higher than usual and their support for Harris will be substantially higher than the vote share directed to Trump. Even if other minority cohorts do not markedly shift for Harris (this will not be the case wrt the Puerto Rican diaspora) Harris will win comfortably. There is no way Trump can make up his loss rating among female voters.
The Republican columns are split. An electorally significant share of usually-Republican constituencies and/or the non-voting “Reserve” constituency will vote Harris. She’s almost a certainty now. Trump should be more than 5/1 in the betting markets…even 20/1.
President
It is impossible to know who will win. All the polls when I last looked were in the margin of error.
Re house
The Republicans have control but they have stuffed up big time. How could they win?
Re Senate
Democrats best situation is 50 seats and vp casting vote
Chances (3)
Montana
Texas
Ind in Nebraska
Any choice assumes they retain their 49 seats besides which is very possible
But stage 2 of the 3 choices is less likely and difficult.
It is Possible that they win 2 out of 3 choices
51…….very improbable.
Kirky @ #408 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 9:11 pm
Same as it ever was. Almost every ABC bulletin from 2010-13 was led with Greg Jennett or some other LNP lickspittle declaring with a big grin on their face “Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says…”
BOMBS AWAY
University of Massachusetts Lowell / YouGov
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Harris: 50% (+7)
Trump: 43%
Other: 3%
MICHIGAN
Harris: 49% (+4)
Trump: 45%
Other: 3%
PENNSYLVANIA
Harris: 48% (+1)
Trump: 47%
Other: 3%
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump: 47% (+2)
Harris: 45%
Other: 3%
10/16-24 | Likely voters
__________
Top Minds of MAGA squirming!
This would require the polling to be wrong. Trump is leading in the markets because he’s leading in the polling, Pennsylvania is the main culprit.
It’s true that the woman factor makes this election different from the last couple, so the polls might actually be wrong and she might actually win, but very far from a “certainty”.
Kirsdarke @ #414 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 9:25 pm
And then one of them went to work for Abbott. Mark ??
A poll that does what you’d expect in terms of RV/LV based on early vote:
President – Washington Post
MICHIGAN
LV
Harris: 47%
Trump: 46%
RV
Trump: 47%
Harris: 45%
10/23-28 1,003 RV
”
Centresays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:49 pm
Ven
I don’t care who you think I support.
I stick by every post I’ve made.
Tell you what, if I have another go (bet) on Donald in the betting markets, you’ll know who I’m going for
”
It is free country and do your heart’s content. It is your money. 🙂
Good to see you’ve come around to hoping for a Democrat win, Centre. Fingers crossed we can raise a glass next week to celebrate if they get over the line.
FUBAR, this probably illustrates our quite different views on gender and trans people, but neither of those hypotheticals seems that problematic to me.
In any university scholarship scenario there’s someone (many people) who just misses out. And the same number who get the life changing opportunity. If one of them is trans and wins on merit good luck to them. And a knee injury from a bad tackle can happen from any opponent.
I suspect these hypotheticals only strike a chord if you’ve already internalized some negative/fearful perception of a trans athlete. They’re just people, winning and losing scholarships and laying good and bad tackles.
Charles Franklin presents the final Marquette University Law Poll which shows Vice President Harris with a 1- point lead over Donald Trump, well within the MOE.
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 50% of likely voters and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 49%, in a head-to-head matchup. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. In the previous poll in late September, Harris received 52% and Trump 48% among likely voters.
Keeping initially undecided voters as a separate category, Harris holds 48% of likely voters, Trump gets 47%, and 5% are undecided.
In a multicandidate race, Harris also leads, with 46% to Trump’s 44%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 5%, the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s Claudia De la Cruz 0%, Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver 2%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry 0%, and independent Cornel West 1%, among likely voters.
“MULawPoll
@MULawPoll
The partisan makeup of the Wisconsin sample is 36% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 34% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 31% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent. #mulawpoll
4:19 AM · Oct 31, 2024
·
398.3K
Views
”
https://x.com/MULawPoll/status/1851675382367330651?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851675382367330651%7Ctwgr%5E338b91e7c2ba3629211428ce7b6e4dc2ee14270a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F31%2F2281021%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Flawless
SP&R
@SusquehannaPR
SP&R releases its new PA Poll in POTUS/US Senate races showing a statistical tie in the race for President (Senate poll to follow this Tweet):
K. Harris 46.0%
D. Trump 45.8%
Undecided 6.0%
Sample Size 500 LV; Field Dates 10/18-10/22
MoE: +/-4.3%
Visit http://susquehannapolling.com
Ven says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 11:47 pm
SP&R
@SusquehannaPR
SP&R releases its new PA Poll in POTUS/US Senate races showing a statistical tie in the race for President (Senate poll to follow this Tweet):
K. Harris 46.0%
D. Trump 45.8%
Undecided 6.0%
Sample Size 500 LV; Field Dates 10/18-10/22
MoE: +/-4.3%
Visit http://susquehannapolling.com
500?
Obviously, this is not enough….and it’s already out of date. Such “polls” as these ain’t really very informative. The MoE…pure guesswork.
Geoffrey Epstein says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 9:37 pm
She’s almost a certainty now. Trump should be more than 5/1 in the betting markets…even 20/1.
This would require the polling to be wrong. Trump is leading in the markets because he’s leading in the polling, Pennsylvania is the main culprit.
It’s true that the woman factor makes this election different from the last couple, so the polls might actually be wrong and she might actually win, but very far from a “certainty”.
The “polls” are not polls in the traditional/old-fashioned sense. They do not acquire large fully randomised samples. They are weighted and smoothed for demographic factors. So they embed lots of assumptions about actual voters, who in any case only comprise about 2/3 of possible voters. These are quant surveys with high inherent inaccuracy. The sense of precision they exhibit is almost entirely illusory.
Qualitative surveys/interviews aligned with tracking polls would be helpful. To my knowledge, none of this has been published, but for sure the campaigns will be running them.
What we do have is actual data relating to votes already cast. This information is not merely taken from weighted samples. They show that highly motivated voters are rolling up in significant numbers. The share of female voters and their propensity to vote for Harris, regardless of their registration, is already generating significant voting margins for a Harris. We don’t know the actual numbers (they cannot be released), but we know the sex of voters and we know the propensity of women to vote Harris.
More women than men will vote in this election. And they will favour Harris by larger margins than the male vote will favour Trump. The arithmetic is inexorable. Trump loses. He will lose in the so-called swing States by at least around 53/47 in a 2-candidate split.
The propensity of women to support Harris puts 4 other States at possible risk of loss for Trump – Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Texas. They will be close, but probably not turning blue just yet.
Trump is a notorious and violent sex predator and assailant. That’s one thing. His campaign is also promising to implement a national ban on abortion. That’s another thing. Trump is also famously a liar. That is, he is conspicuously dishonest. Dishonest people cannot be trusted. They are inherently dangerous. For women, these three factors are compelling. They should be compelling for men too. They will shift votes and change past behaviours and affiliations. Trump is going to pay for his decadence, his violations, his misogyny.
The payment is already being exacted at polling places across America.
Stooge, I do hope you are right. I’m not ready for a fascist USA.
You’re saying the polls are skewed in the opposite direction to the last two times they were skewed, and you reckon the dems are ahead even though they so far have less of an early voting advantage than they did in 2020.
The basis for your “certainty” looks pretty faith-based to me. Nobody should be counting on Trump’s moral character to win Harris the election, at least nobody who can remember the morning after the “grab em pussy” election, when Trump won from a worse polling position than he is in at this time.
If being a dishonest, decadent misogynist was such a deal-breaker for the American electorate, he’d be getting crushed in the polls and he’s just not. Not saying Harris will lose for sure, her rallies seem bigger and Dobbs is the X factor, I have a gut feeling she will outperform her polling on election night, but absolutely nobody should be shocked if he gets back in.
Also, a reminder that more white women voted for Trump than for Clinton or Biden. Between 2016 and 2020 Trump increased his support with blacks and Latinos. He has an appeal that might seem completely inexplicable but it exists. The last four years have been a shit-show at home and abroad. Harris, who has never won a competitive race in her life, is only the candidate because Trump beat Biden so badly in their one debate that the guy had to drop out.
Harris has one weapon in her arsenal and that’s the Dobbs ruling on abortion. Plus the number of old people who have died (many of Covid) since the grab em pussy election, and the young people who reached voting age to replace them. But will that be enough? I feel like maybe it will be, and her popular vote margin will be very big for sure, but the data suggests an electoral college coin flip (at best).
Ovechkin @ #421 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 10:54 pm
A very thoughtful comment.
Okay, I’m going to brand myself a mighty #hypocrite here, however, as the US election and the Melbourne Cup are on the same date, all predictions for the winner of the Melbourne Cup as well as any other contest in the US will be gratefully received. 🙂
Epstein all reasonable points but whereas he will be jumping for joy on election day and celebrating four more years of democracy, repeatedly posting that it’s close and could go either way gets you no brownie points and means that whatever the result you’ll just be a bit more dead inside.
The host of the polling podcast, ‘Split Ticket’, Lakysha Jain, talks to Tim Miller:
https://youtu.be/37E3ug0VTNI?si=dTaFeFxTuiSaQBoZ
Joy V Hate
The people will decide.
I mentioned to my wife that we may need to brace for a return of Trump next week. I haven’t discussed the election with her at all and she doesn’t consume news.
Her response, “Oh fuck off, that is so strange”
C@t, the winner of the Melbourne cup will be betting agencies.
Mostly Interested @ #432 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 6:12 am
Always is. 😀
You have a very perspicacious wife, MI. 🙂
I have seen the footage of all these things, yet seeing words written to describe the incidents emphasises just how disturbing this all is. Trump really is taking the country backwards.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/trump-distills-gender-gap/
Remember Trump’s McDonalds stunt?
Harris schedule for the final 5 days:
Thurs = Phoenix, AZ; Reno, NV; Las Vegas, NV
Fri = Appleton, WI; Milwaukee, WI
Sat = Atlanta, GA; Charlotte, NC
Sun = MI stops, including Detroit area
Mon = PA stops, including Pittsburgh & Philadelphia
There is only one election pseudo-betting market available to US citizens – the predictor site Kalshi.
Some late movement evident…
Here’s another one on Megyn Kelly’s show. I cannot believe in 2024 that people can genuinely without satire say that women should vote the way their husbands do (or tell them to do) otherwise they are undermining their husband.
https://x.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1851963459266625874
Michael Nevin is a US polling/political strategy guy who often thinks outside the box- like this:
in politics, the best way to gauge anything is to pay attention to where campaigns/political org’s are expending their time & resources… it can tell you A LOT about their thinking, priorities & where they see the race headed
it’s why, to me, it’s so telling that the right are expending massive amounts of time, money & focus on their consistent & coordinated effort to skew the polling averages WHILE dems haven’t lifted a finger to counterbalance this effort…
you wouldn’t spend that type of money, commit that type of focus & coordinate that closely on producing & strategically releasing padded numbers if you thought you were winning
conversely, if you think you’re actually winning, there’s no need to do the same in response (to counterbalance)
……
people tend to forget that, in 2012, obama was TRAILING, nationally, throughout the entire month of october & went into election day with only a half a point lead in the national polls
people love to reference 2016 & 2020, when it comes to “close” elections, but have forgotten almost entirely about 2012 (which happens to be the cycle this one most eerily resembles, in many ways)
And it shows that the Harris ad and the Lincoln Project ad aimed at Republican women is biting Trumpists.
A new CNN/SRSS poll worth examining – in Georgia and North Carolina.
Combined of already voted
Harris 48
Trump 47
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25260795/cnn-polls-harris-and-trump-remain-neck-and-neck-in-georgia-and-north-carolina.pdf
Trump on the campaign trail: “I will be the Protector of Women, whether the women like it or not.”
😯
Harris has some handy leads in early voting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/
Washington Post…
Well, actually, we do have some clues about who they’re voting far. Polls are increasingly asking voters whether they voted early and publishing the breakdowns. And the picture for Republicans isn’t as rosy there as they might want to believe.
Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be banking a significant lead heading into Election Day, potentially bigger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 — for whatever that’s worth.
….
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
Arizona: 9-12 points
Georgia: 7-10 points
Michigan: 26-39 points
North Carolina: 2-6 points
Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
Wisconsin: 22-60 points
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/
Snap Fess!
Should he win, Trump won’t be protecting anyone or anything except himself and his billionaire mates.
Excellent article in NYTimes on partisan polling and betting markets
Unlike its competitors, RealClearPolitics does not filter out low-quality polls, incorporating results from pollsters with a poor track record that other aggregators reject. It also does not weight its averages. One of its pages displays a map of the electoral college with a winner projected for each state, even those the site currently deems to be tossups.
That “no tossups” map currently shows Mr. Trump winning every swing state except Michigan and Wisconsin.
RealClearPolitics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Influential accounts have been sharing screenshots of RealClearPolitics’ scarlet-dominated Electoral College map, often paired with images of the Polymarket betting average, which currently shows Mr. Trump with a 65 percent chance of winning.
Two weeks ago, Elon Musk shared the map with his 202 million followers on X, writing that the “trend will continue” and that Democrats are losing. Early voting data, a fickle predictive metric, has also been cited by Trump supporters as further evidence of his impending triumph.
“It’s full spectrum dominance — it’s everywhere you look. You can’t avoid it. It feels good, it looks good, it sounds good,” said Vish Burra, the executive secretary of the New York Young Republican Club.
…
“The main reason you float data like that is because you’re trying to convince your supporters there’s no way Trump can lose — unless it’s stolen,” said Mike Madrid, a longtime Republican strategist who is critical of the former president. “The goal is to set the predicate for the race’s aftermath so you can challenge the result.”
That opinion is shared by a growing faction on both sides of the aisle, who are dismayed to see polls weaponized in a way that could undermine faith in the entire system.
“That’s my main concern,” said Adam Carlson, a data analyst and former Democratic pollster who has been tracking the partisan polls. “People will believe what they want to believe on both sides, but only on one side does that have the chance to lead to pervasive election denial.”
Democrats have also tried using the partisan polls and stacked betting odds to increase their chances, figuring that playing from behind could help turnout and pull a bit more cash from donors’ pockets. Dozens of fund-raising emails from the Harris campaign in recent weeks have promoted polls showing Mr. Trump ahead in battleground states and in the national average; one from this week called the data “deeply concerning” as it implored voters to donate $10.
Others on the left believe that even the polling averages are skewed in Mr. Trump’s favor and that Ms. Harris is actually poised for a surprise landslide, in much the same way that Democrats over-performed expectations in the midterms.
Unlocked
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/31/us/politics/trump-harris-partisan-polls.html?unlocked_article_code=1.WU4.pMIN.YNjRvKw6cJ4z&smid=url-share
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.
And guess who’s appearing with Kamala Harris today in Las Vegas in Nevada?
Puerto Rican-American megastar, Jennifer Lopez.
Internal Trump polling memo
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25260990-10-31_polling_averages_comparison_memo?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&stream=top
Funny thing, the RealClearPolitics averages are being promoted..
An internal memo by Tony Fabrizio, the chief pollster for all three of former President Trump’s campaigns, tells Trump he’s in a radically better position than he was in right before the 2020 election.
The memo, addressed to “TEAM TRUMP,” has the subject line: “PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ON THE VERGE.”
Fabrizio draws on Real Clear Politics polling averages to argue that Trump’s “position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago.”
“While the analysis of early and absentee vote returns in each state [is] promising, we know that the bulk of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day,” it says.
Why it matters: The memo reflects the exuberance Trump staffers and allies exude in interviews and behind-the-scenes conversations.
The optimistic framing could make it even more difficult for Trump to accept a loss as legitimate.
Reality check: This remains a 50-50 election, folks, with polling from all seven swing states falling within the margin of error.
Axios