Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
And over 1M Puerto Rican voters in Florida.
The market has decided Donald Trump will win will be a massive sell off if he loses.
Biden cut through in a wrong way still thought he was a lot better bet than Harris though.Barely 4 days to go.
The Wombat I was daydreaming the other day about feeding my old sardine cans to my chooks and I went to google if botulinum toxin is harmful to birds and I got to “is bot” before it predicted the rest. I sat there stunned for a good five minutes.
Omar Comin’ @ #348 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 5:54 pm
She really needs the Black vote in Georgia. Fortunately Trump’s hate rally gave her a potential win on that too with the watermelon gaffe.
@pied piper there will be a massive sell off if he wins as well, is this your first rodeo or what? Crikey son you SELL the news, doesn’t matter what it is.
Fess:
He looks like an Oompa Loompa!
Asha:
Happy Halloween! I have been inundated with scary monsters this afternoon masquerading as cute local kids. 🙂
The Evil Genius Elon has been at it again:
(WaPo)
sprocket_ @ #346 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 5:38 pm
He really gets in your face. Literally. 😐
Probably a good reason why he wears the orange make-up.
C@tmomma did you see my betters/bettors joke, I wrote it for you!
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 6:42 pm
sprocket_ @ #346 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 5:38 pm
Centre says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:03 pm
sprocket
Sheezus, just google it and stop wasting my time lol
I’m starting to think you’re a troll Centre – flooding the blog with non-US betting markets and extrapolating that this absolutely must effect voting intention and hence the result.
But I’ll avoid commenting on this horseshit until you actually provide some evidence to support your assertions.
He really gets in your face. Literally.
”
And a supporter of Dutton and current Liberal party of Australia.
I may disagree with Badthinker, Alabama, Out of sorts and BTsays with everything they say but they don’t pretend they are not Trump supporters and I give credit to them about it unlike FUBAR, PP and Centre
Kirsdarke:
Yes, just like how he wears a girdle and lifts in his shoes.
Ven, BTsays did pretend for quite a while.
It’s a shame for people on a psephology site to support ending (or even risking) democracy, in my opinion.
Guys
As of 30th October
Early voting by Gender
GA: +12 women
NC: +11 women
FL: +10 women
TX: +8 women
PA: +13 women
MI: +10 women
WI: +8 women
IA: +10 women
OH: +8 women
NV: +1 men(apparently, rural voters are almost maxed out)
AZ: +5 women
NE: +9 women
Confessions
It’s my contention that the reason Trump was so desperate to put his shoe back on after the assassination attempt was because he didn’t want the little not-so-secret of his 2″ lifts to come out.
Tony Hinchcliffe getting most bad reviews for the Puerto Rico/Latino slurs.
But he didn’t miss the blacks either. Saying wtte ‘they aren’t carving pumpkins, they are carving watermelons’. Which is straight out of the KKK playbook, and hasn’t been missed..
Free black people grew, ate, and sold watermelons, and in doing so made the fruit a symbol of their freedom. Southern whites, threatened by blacks’ newfound freedom, responded by making the fruit a symbol of black people’s perceived uncleanliness, laziness, childishness, and unwanted public presence.
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/12/how-watermelons-became-a-racist-trope/383529/
Anyone else noticed how the reporting on ABC News is blatantly pro Trump, most of all from Trump fangirl Barbara Miller. News 24 rarely puts on any Kamala Harris speeches or rallies, while Trump is shown endlessly.
I get more balanced news from SBS, or from Morning Joe which you can get live on youtube.
The woman domination of early voting increased today – nationwide from +8 to +10.
So far 58,390,685 people have voted..
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
Ven rural voters in Nevada is two old guys shooting cans in the desert, and yeah they’ve probably both already voted.
None of the Trump supporters on this blog or any where else gave me a good reason why women will vote for Trump.
Why would they want to vote for sexual predator, sexual assaulter?
Why would women want to forgo freedom on reproductive rights, why would they want their daughters, sisters and mothers to forgo women’s reproductive rights?
The only reason I can think of is because they may do it for fear of getting bad treatment from their MAGA fathers, MAGA brothers and MAGA husbands or MAGA boyfriends.
@Democracy Sausage yeah they also quote Kremlin talking points pretty often, with nothing more than “according to…”
It’s a great shame, they used to employ the narrative setting journalists of the day before being progressively gutted and stacked with tory stooges.
They probably spend almost as much streaming Karate Kid to people as they do on journalism these days.
US stock market has never been higher than under Biden/Harris, despite the alternative truth spouted by some of the usual RWNJs rhetoric.
Trump in a garbage truck today take that Dems!
Why would they want to vote for sexual predator, sexual assaulter?
Trump won the majority of white women in 2020 and 2016.
@Centre keeps informing us that polling lags the betting market because he read it on the back of a bubble gum card or maybe a Ladbrokes US election promo.
He could have actually made a useful contribution by spending the last month plotting the polling aggregates against the betting market to test his hypothesis instead of just parroting the latest odds like a galah in a pet shop.
As far as the efficiency of betting markets on US Presidential elections we lack the sample sizes to make any kind of conclusions it’s not a mature betting medium.
It’s not like racing or European Football where you can programme up a computer to trawl through thousands of races/games searching for market inefficiencies to try an exploit.
We don’t know and none of us will live long enough to know the answer to how efficient money wagered is on US elections – you are handicapping blind no matter what you do so the confidence level in your pricing will always be low.
@Ven
Unfortunately women are capable of being selfish sociopaths too. Hearing a MAGA woman declare that she was going to vote for Trump despite it being a probable death sentence for her brother since he relies on Medicaid benefits for his medicine since she cares more about it being used for trans people and wants it abolished really branded in my mind.
Barbara Miller’s voice/accent repels my ears.
And yes, she’s like Lisa Millar with her “Mittmentum” call from back in the days, when Romney crashed to a massive defeat.
*MIC DROP*
Centre @ #259 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 1:31 pm
You’re full of ..it, Centre.
pied piper @ #378 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:30 pm
He should be in the back.
C@tmomma @ #383 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:48 pm
That got a laugh out of me, nice one.
Kirsdarke says Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:35 pm
The Australia if your Listening podcast is in the US at the moment and have been checking in daily. They were in the Michigan capital and were approached by a retired gent. He said he was going to vote Trump because he was sick of other people getting stuff from his taxes without having to earn it, or something like that. His only two concerns were around what Trump might do to Social Security because that was his main source of income and that he was pro choice, although he blamed the Supreme Court for the overturning of Rode vs Wade and not Trump.
Democracy Sausage @ #372 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:22 pm
As with a lot of women, Trump titillates her. I find it inexplicable but lotharios and lounge lizards are a thing.
@bc
It really is sad just how far in the cult some of these people are. They just don’t realise that they’re voting their way toward a situation in which they go to pick up their prescription scripts and be confronted with $300+ bills.
Kirsdarke says Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:55 pm
People live in information bubbles and don’t realise they’re being lied to. It happens on both the right and left as well. I think one of the best things people can do is try to listen to a diverse range of creditable media. I don’t mean they should watch both Fox and MSNBC, I don’t think either are creditable. But they can watch ABC, CBS, NBC and PBS. They can try to read websites such as BBC, CNN, NYT and the Washington Post. Basically, organisations that try to be impartial and fact based. They aren’t perfect, but people will be much better informed (and less angry).
“This election, I will be supporting an openly racist fascist, rapist, and convicted criminal who denies the results of democratic elections, tried to hold onto power in an attempted coup, falsely accuses racial minorities of eating people’s pets, boasts about sexually assaulting women and perving on underage beauty pageant contestants when they are getting changed, has publicly stated his desire to date his own daughter and waxed lyrical about her nice tits on multiple occasions, and whose two key achievements last time in office was giving tax cuts to huge corporations and needlessly letting untold Americans die of COVID. I will be supporting him primarily because he has promised to do nothing whatsoever about climate change and to make life harder for brown people and trans people, and because I want to see more young women forced to carry their pregnancies to term even if it endangers their lives.
Why is everyone being mean to me?”
Ven says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:27 pm
Lots of feminists and non-feminists want to protect female spaces from males and stop males competing in sports against females.
”
Omar Comin’says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:23 pm
Ven rural voters in Nevada is two old guys shooting cans in the desert, and yeah they’ve probably both already voted.
”
Omar
According to Jon Ralston, who is an authority on Nevada voting and who never predicted wrongly about final result in NV, said in his opinion piece that in 2020 Trump got 70000 majority voters from rural area and it is Clark County (Las Vegas) , Washoe county, that gave Biden 6000 vote majority in the end. This time Trump can get upto 80000 majority in rural areas.
Currently, Republicans built a firewall of 40000 in NV or 5% majority.
‘And stop males competing in sports against females” is a line one hears from the brain dead right. It’s such a tiny minority of sports where this occurs. It’s almost funny watching the RMNJs brain explode with this issue.
I know this probably isn’t the place but since I lack self control, I’ll just plough in…
What is with these doctors, that women are dying for want of an abortion? I understand that they’re being threatened with jail, but so what? That’s part of the job. This is medicines sans frontiers now. If they’re dying, that has to be because all the doctors are in jail, not because they’re just standing there going “damn I would’ve been all over that shit back in the before times”
Am I missing the mark here?
Asha @ #391 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 8:16 pm
Because Trump is transgressive and these ageing punks just want to keep the rage against the machine going. They crave the Dopamine hit of being Anti Establishment, where they equate the establishment as all those people who support the rule of law and who respect normalcy and society’s unseen but present guardrails. Basically, the Democratic Party.
Honestly, Trump rallies remind me of nothing so much as a reunion tour by Fleetwood Mac. They feel a little bit naughty doing it and identify with the band/the guy who wants to be President, who is a little bit naughty too. The people my age, who turn up, who go to concerts by bands like The Grateful Dead or Guns’N’Roses, seem to be the sort of people attending Trump rallies.
They seem unshakeable in this belief in the guy who just wants to break things and tear the whole thing down. Just like they wanted to when they were punks or pot-smoking Dead Heads or wild and crazy Guns’n’Roses tattooed bikers.
Now they’re just sad old people sucking up to a clown.
pied piper
Did you see all those flies buzzing around his nappy-arse?
Omar Comin’ @ #393 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 8:38 pm
Doctors tend to react differently, like most humans, if they think an action they take would land them in prison. So most of them would logically choose to just let the woman die part-way through giving birth to a malformed homunculus than risk it and wind up in prison for life for the murder of a fetus.
Omar Comin’ @ #395 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 8:38 pm
No. The only thing you left out is…but the 2nd mortgage on the beach house.
Nelson Mandela spent 27 years in jail for the cause he believed in. Lech Walesa, Vaclav Havel, every single Russian Opposition Leader under Putin! They have given their lives or a large part of it for what they believed in with all their heart and soul and every fibre of their being. These doctors are just pussies in comparison. No offence to cats.
C@t
You can’t seem to make up your mind.
Sprocket asks me a stupid question about American punters, I tell him to google it himself. Yet you have a dig at me 😀
I thought you’d be more pleased with less comments on betting markets. Quite typical and predictable lol anybody who shares your same one-eyed views…
Bellwether @ #397 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 8:42 pm
Did you hear that Joe Rogan said that not once, not before, not during their 3 hour conversation and not after it, did Donald Trump go to the bathroom.
Ven
I don’t care who you think I support.
I stick by every post I’ve made.
Tell you what, if I have another go (bet) on Donald in the betting markets, you’ll know who I’m going for 😉
Centre,
This —>
howlin wolves @ #380 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:33 pm
It’s not that you said what you said in response to sprocket_, it’s the conclusions you draw. I cannot agree with them.