US presidential election minus seven days

Donald Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College, according to forecast models. Also covered: three Canadian provincial elections and electoral events in Japan, Moldova and Georgia.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.

I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.

Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.

Canadian provincial elections

From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.

At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).

The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.

At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).

At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.

Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.

LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan

Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.

At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power.  The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.

Moldova and Georgia

A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.

Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.

2,095 comments on “US presidential election minus seven days”

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  4. Hugoaugogo @ #2051 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:23 pm

    Kirksdarke – the Electoral College count is done by the newly-elected Congress, which takes its place on 3 January. If Harris ends up winning, it’s pretty likely that the Dems will also win back the House, and so what the House Republicans do doesn’t matter. But even if the GOP somehow keeps it’s majority, they’ve already shown a complete inability to agree on pretty much anything, and I’d say it’s likely that Johnson would do some sort of deal with the Dems to remain Speaker – and a key element of that deal would be no funny business.

    There’s been quite a lot of chatter about Republican chicanery to somehow overturn the election result, but in reality it won’t be that easy. To start with, the Electoral Count Act was updated (by a bipartisan majority) to minimise the possibility of trickery. Second, the incumbent President is Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, and so the push from the top will be to follow the rules. And third, in all but one of the swing states, there’s a Democrat somewhere in the decision-making process (be it Governor, Secretary of State or legislature), and the only swing state where that’s not the case, Georgia, the relevant players (like Kemp and Rafensberger) have already demonstrated that they are not interested in doing Trump’s dirty work. So while Trump will almost certainly try something on if he loses, his efforts (like they have been in most of his life’s endeavours) will be unsuccessful.

    Thanks for clearing this up (and also C@t).

    As an aside, I’ve come to quite like that word – “Chicanery”. Really puts in the mind all the bullshit that Guiliani, Powell, etc. were doing after Trump lost 2020.

  5. An interesting theory of political relativity was proffered just now on The Bulwark Election Eve video I’m listening to now (yes, just call me tragic), and that is that the election this person believes the current one is most closely related to is the Post 9/11 election of 2004, with the Dobbs decision taking the place in the electorate’s mind of 9/11. Interesting if true.

  6. Did not Trump’s nominations to the SCOTUS – Gorsuch,
    Kavanagh & Coney Barrett – join with Roberts, Thomas & Alito to give a sitting president almost absolute powers.

    Gorsuch & Kavanagh are Trump’s men, make no mistake about it. And while Coney Barrett wavered a little, she too
    can’t be trusted to be true to the Constitution, claiming she’s an originalist* but if she truly is, she could not have found in Trump’s favour as there is no immunity clause in the Constitution. Five of the justices are irrevocably tainted.

    * [‘Originalism is a legal theory that bases constitutional, judicial, and statutory interpretation of text on the original understanding at the time of its adoption.’]

    Given the way the US came of age, there’s no way that the founding fathers contemplated giving plenary powers to a president. If that was the case, they would’ve dropped their arms & pledged fealty to George III.

  7. Kirsdarke @ #2045 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:19 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2046 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:17 pm

    Kirsdarke @ #2036 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:09 pm

    I said it a while ago but I think it’s fine to repeat that I reckon Nevada was going to be tough to retain after Harry Reid’s death in 2021. He was pretty much the top dog of the Democratic Party in Nevada, and his loss would make it quite difficult to retain in 2024.

    I heard that the Reid machine is still going strong in Nevada, fwiw.

    I hope that’s true. Just with Reid’s death, that means a long lifetime of political friendships, networks and coordination went with him.

    Hopefully he passed on these useful things to the next generation of the Nevada Democrats.

    As I heard it, and this was years ago, he mentored a successor.

  8. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 9:02 pm
    Gender gap figures in Early Voting: 54.9-45.1 in the Southern Swing States
    Female +12 in Georgia
    Female +11 in North Carolina
    Female +10 in Michigan
    Female +7 in Wisconsin
    Female +5 in Arizona
    Female +0 in Nevada
    (3rd Way)
    ”

    Female +13 in Oklahoma (Unknown: 9%)
    Female +14 in Louisiana
    Female +14 in South Carolina
    Female +12 in Tennessee
    Female +10 in Kansas
    Female +10 in Iowa
    Female +10 in Florida
    Female +10 in Texas
    Female +10 in Indiana
    Female +10 in Ohio (Unknown: 6%)

  9. Trump went into a mantra, we’re gonna frack, frack, frack & drill, drill baby.
    Somewhere in his diatribe was a kick in the guts for renewables.

  11. Oh, Meher, my post re. the SCOTUS was in response to your
    erroneous contentions in your post at 8:54 pm. Harris in a near landslide.

  13. So, polls have just opened (0600 ET) in
    Connecticut
    Indiana (Polls in central time open at 7 a.m. ET)
    Kentucky (polls in Central Time open at 7 a.m. ET)
    Maine (Almost all polls open between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m., but municipalities with less than 500 people can be open as late as 10 a.m.)
    New Hampshire (polls can open between 6 and 11 a.m. – Dixville Notch voted at midnight)
    New Jersey
    New York
    Virginia

    and in 20 mins (0630 ET) these will open

    6:30 a.m

    Ohio
    North Carolina
    West Virginia
    Vermont (polls can open as early as 5 a.m. and as late as 10 a.m., but this year the earliest poll opening is at 6:30 a.m.)

    And a heap more to open in the next 1.5 hours.

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris/index.html?t=1730805115985

  16. Mostly Interested please lodge my “prediction” as Harris: 270 Trump: 268

    But I hope it’s a higher number for Harris than that, as a result that tight will unleash the MAGA crazies big time.

  19. All this talk of the gender gap reminds of a line I read somewhere a day or two ago, can’t quite remember where:

    “The women of American will protect the country from Donald Trump, whether he likes it or not.”

  21. Eric Daugherty
    @EricLDaugh
    ·
    Follow
    BREAKING: New memo confirms that Democrats are facing a huge turnout issue in the battlegrounds.

    PA: Urban turnout is down 381K votes, female turnout is down 450K votes.

    WI: Urban down 100K, female down 238K.
    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853494984441577665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853494984441577665%7Ctwgr%5E456e2838354a6daabbd8d5979a56029eb221a670%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

  22. MABWMsays:
    Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 10:20 pm
    Badthinker @10.17pm –

    Have you no decency, Sir?

    Tell it to Harris, it’s her tweet, not mine.

  23. Another quote I’ve heard of recently is that Trump’s strongest demographic is divorced men.

    Not to say that all divorced men are garbage, I mean a lot of them may have just gotten married too early and weren’t properly prepared for what marriage would be like before society shoved them to the church to “put a ring on it” so to say.

    But it’s probably fair to say that most of them are motivated to support Trump through bitter vengeance against those that scorned them.

    And also this is the result of 30+ years of talkback radio and Fox News ironing out the wrinkles in peoples’ brains. It turns out to be very toxic to most peoples’ frame of mind.

  24. ”
    Diogenessays:
    Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 10:43 pm
    The gender gap must be basically the opposite for men and Trump.
    Depending a little on turnout.
    ”

    Diogenes
    I did not publish some polling numbers from states. I repeat they are not polling numbers.

    They are the real early voting numbers.from each State provided by the State election boards of those states. They are not Kamala Harris numbers amongst women.

    So I don’t understand what you posted.

  25. BREAKING: New memo

    Pfft. Trump campaign memo. It was written to placate Trump, and leaked to demoralize Democrats. On twitter, because of course.

    Also, uses TargetSmart data to compare against 2020’s pandemic election when only like 27% of voters turned up on the day for 2020. 2024 is either going to roughly double that, or probably set a record for lowest turnout ever.

    To go back to the “The gender gap must be basically the opposite for men and Trump” comment, well no. If the Trump campaign seriously thinks 2024 election day turnout is going to look like 2020’s, then they need almost double the gender gap because they’re expecting a much smaller pool of voters. Like men +16% or so. It should be pretty obvious if that’s happening or not.

    Photos of people lining up to vote, please.

  26. ”
    Patrick Batemansays:
    Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 10:35 pm
    Ven those gender gap numbers are pretty wild given the very consistent pro-Harris polling among women across the country.
    ”

    Patrick
    When I say Gender gap, what I mean is that that is the percentage gap between women and men, who have voted in early voting in each State.

  27. Ven, I get that, but given that every poll shows women overwhelmingly voting for Harris while men favour Trump, that’s some pretty strong numbers and means Trump needs an equivalent disparity of men vs women voting on the day to make up the difference.

  28. ”
    aliassays:
    Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 10:39 pm
    All this talk of the gender gap reminds of a line I read somewhere a day or two ago, can’t quite remember where:

    “The women of American will protect the country from Donald Trump, whether he likes it or not.”
    ”

    Tim Walz said that.

  30. ”
    Patrick Batemansays:
    Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 11:02 pm
    Ven, I get that, but given that every poll shows women overwhelmingly voting for Harris while men favour Trump, that’s some pretty strong numbers and means Trump needs an equivalent disparity of men vs women voting on the day to make up the difference.
    ”

    Patrick
    Let me explain again what I call gender gap.

    Let us say 100 voters voted as early voters in say the state of Louisiana, then 57 early voters are women and 43 voters are men. Those numbers are provided by the Louisiana State election board. So the gender gap is +14 in favour of women.
    I don’t know how they voted when they went into polling booth.
    Repeat the same procedure for the numbers I and C@tmomma provided for the states we provided.

  31. Ven, yes, again, I get that. And if polls can be relied on at all, those 57 women will break heavily for Harris, meaning that more people out of the 100 will vote for her, meaning Trump has to make that back on election day to break even let alone win.

  32. Harris is out to 2.40 on Sportsbet the same odds as before the now-discredited Selzer rogue poll.

    Any early exit polls or gender distribution of voters?

  35. ”
    Patrick Batemansays:
    Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 11:15 pm
    Ven, yes, again, I get that. And if polls can be relied on at all, those 57 women will break heavily for Harris, meaning that more people out of the 100 will vote for her, meaning Trump has to make that back on election day to break even let alone win.
    ”

    Yes that is correct.

    I don’t know about 20th century women turnout in Presidential election cycles. Correct me if I am wrong, But in 21st century US Presidential elections, women always polled more than men and especially on election day.
    Will this be election day where more men voters will vote than women voters? idk.

  37. ” I should remember this but how good an idea will we have when I wake up at 8am?”

    8:00 AM SA time (8:30 AM EADT) would be about 4:30 PM in the Eastern time zone of the USA, so no idea at all, assuming an embargo on exit polls until polls start to close from late morning EADT.

  40. I’ll have a keen eye on the result but part of me also wonders why we are paying so much attention to this. Whatever happens the US is still a divided basket case. Why are we paying attention to a country that is in the process of becoming increasingly deranged? Maybe we’re following closely in their footsteps.

  41. Georgia has changed its election laws with the result that 80% of votes will have been counted by between 7 & 8 pm US time. If Harris does well in Georgia, it will be a good
    indication of the overall result.

  42. mj @ #2090 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 12:02 am

    I’ll have a keen eye on the result but part of me also wonders why we are paying so much attention to this. Whatever happens the US is still a divided basket case. Why are we paying attention to a country that is in the process of becoming increasingly deranged? Maybe we’re following closely in their footsteps.

    Biggest reason is that Democracy itself is at a crossroads in the USA. Will they collectively as a nation fall as suckers to the Murdochs, Putins, Jinpings and Trumps of the world and dismantle what they have? Or will they defend it?

  44. Bad thinker do you realize that’s early voting I not today’s dot you know what don’t take anything from a Republican seriously okay anyway I think Harris is gonna win if Trump wins well America gets the government they deserve

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