Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
Musk’s $1 million giveaway is just a rigged scam, Musk’s lawyer reveals
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/4/2282550/-Musk-s-1-million-giveaway-is-just-a-rigged-scam-Musk-s-lawyer-reveals?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
“Nothing is ever simple with Elon Musk, especially when it comes to money. The lawyer for Musk’s America PAC told a Philadelphia judge on Monday, that the $1-million-a-day voter registration “sweepstakes” taking place in swing states is actually fixed.
“The $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance,” Chris Gober, who represents the billionaire’s pro-Donald Trump PAC, told the judge. “We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.”
On Monday afternoon, Judge Angelo Foglietta sided with Musk’s PAC attorney and ruled that the giveaway scheme was not an illegal lottery in violation of Pennsylvania law. “
reddit: I saw Ann Selzer at a grocery store in Los Angeles yesterday. I told her how cool it was to meet her in person, but I didn’t want to be a douche and bother her and ask her for photos or anything. She said, “Oh, like you’re doing now?” I was taken aback, and all I could say was “Huh?” but she kept cutting me off and going “huh? huh? huh?” and closing her hand shut in front of my face. I walked away and continued with my shopping, and I heard her chuckle as I walked off. When I came to pay for my stuff up front I saw her trying to walk out the doors with like fifteen Milky Ways in her hands without paying.
The girl at the counter was very nice about it and professional, and was like “Ma’am you need to pay for those first.” At first she kept pretending to be tired and not hear her, but eventually turned back around and brought them to the counter.
When she took one of the bars and started scanning it multiple times, she stopped her and told her to scan them each individually “to prevent any electrical infetterence,” and then turned around and winked at me. I don’t even think that’s a word. After she scanned each bar and put them in a bag and started to say the price, she kept interrupting her by yawning really loudly.
Dixville Notch 3-3. In the primary, they went 6-0 for Haley.
Nate Silver’s final model reading:
“When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating.
At exactly midnight on Tuesday, I pressed the “go” button for the final time on our election model this year. I knew it was going to be close. I felt like I was spinning a roulette wheel. (Appropriate, I guess, in a year when I published a book about gambling.) We’d decided ahead of time to run 80,000 simulations instead of our usual 40K.
And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.”
Socrates says Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 7:13 pm
Thomas is 76, Alito is 74, Sotomayor is 70 (and has had type 1 diabetes since 7), Roberts is 69, Kagan is 64, Kavanaugh is 59, Gorsuch is 57, Jackson is 54 and Barrett is 52.
If the Democrats manage to retain control of the Senate 2026 might be a good time for Sotomayor to bow out. I have a feeling Thomas and Alito won’t want to go peacefully, but Thomas has had a few health issues recently I believe.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 6:19 pm
I once read that A grade leaders hire A+ grade employees. B grade leaders hire C grade employees. If Biden hasn’t had to fire anyone maybe it’s because of the quality of the people he appointed in the first place.
You say “a vote is a vote”, but actually, a vote from a regular voting Republican, man or woman, is worth a net of 2 votes, one lost vote for them and a plus vote for Harris.
All votes are not created equal.
”
sprocket_says:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 7:49 pm
Dixville Notch 3-3. In the primary, they went 6-0 for Haley.
”
If it is 6-0 Haley, then why did 3 of them voted for Trump?
In response to how the Madison Square Garden McNuremburger Rally bombed with Hispanic voters, the Trump campaign made this tacky ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxFt_XZ4r84
Can you imagine the reaction in Australia if a major party dropped something like this in the final week?
Warrigal @ #1967 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 6:15 pm
Welcome back Warrigal. Must take a while for them to calculate how much amphetamine to inject & when it will wear off…Probably when the U-boat to Ushuaia is submerged.
sprocket_ @ #1941 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 5:46 pm
I’m not sure if this is specifically true. I know that Betsy De Vos will be back and so will Russel Vought and Peter Navarro. Though the point is probably moot. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #2012 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 8:14 pm
Dr. Evil might get in somewhere this time, since he lost his position to Steve Bannon last time.
Ven, I assume the Dixville Notch 3 who voted for Haley in the Primary and subsequently for Trump were swayed by his elegant and respectful call for party unity.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1943 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 5:49 pm
Look, the truth of the matter is that MElon did what many of us have fantasised about doing all our lives and that is having enough money at our disposal to spot the next bandwagon before anyone else jumps aboard and then ride it hard, well, ride the ‘talent’ hard, to your fortune. Then parlay it into the next big thing and so on. Sure, it’s a talent to know what’s going to swim and what is likely to sink, but still it’s not rocket science. 🙂
Sprocket says,
“Ven, I assume the Dixville Notch 3 who voted for Haley in the Primary and subsequently for Trump were swayed by his elegant and respectful call for party unity.”
That would certainly account for the three who voted Haley, then Trump.
More interesting, however, are the three who voted Haley, then Harris. That’s a powerful message.
Ven: “If it is 6-0 Haley, then why did 3 of them voted for Trump?”
——————————————————————————
I don’t understand why anyone votes for Trump. If I were Trump, I wouldn’t vote for myself.
However, I’ll say this, if 50 per cent of the Republicans who voted for Haley in the primaries end up voting for Harris, this election really will turn out to be a landslide.
Did anyone hear Trump’s final pitch at his rally today? He promised to increase wages for everyone, lower taxes for everyone and get rid of America’s $36 Trillion debt by drilling for oil everywhere! Which proves that he is a crap economist because flooding the market with oil, as OPEC is currently finding out, doesn’t make you more money but less.
Oh yeah, and like a good little Miss Universe contestant, he promised to bring about world peace! 😆
Did my last scan for the evening for predictions, I’ll check in tomorrow morning. The twins didnt sleep last night so neither did I.
I think we’ve topped more than 60 predictions.
c@t: “Look, the truth of the matter is that MElon did what many of us have fantasised about doing all our lives…”
——————————————————————————
In my case, that’s definitely being able to get up on stage in front of a huge audience and jump up and down like an idiot so everyone can see my belly button.
538 forecast model Harris 50 Trump 49. Nate Silver’s modelling run 80,000 times, Harris wins 40,012. The betting odds are still showing strong expectations for Trump for some reason I don’t quite understand.
Welcome to parenting, MI! 😀
What I used to do if my kids couldn’t sleep, pop them in bed with me. They were so chuffed to be in bed with mummy and daddy that they were asleep in minutes. Sleeping on the edge of the bed wasn’t so great for me but it was better than nothing. 😉
sprocket_ says
Oh I have the perfect animated gif for this
I’m predicting Harris 289, Trump 249.
Kamala Harris may not be the world’s most inspiring orator but she is certainly very good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RRlPh2G-4w at about the 6:40 mark.
Bellwether: “The betting odds are still showing strong expectations for Trump for some reason I don’t quite understand.”
——————————————————————————-
I reckon the punters are expecting that there are Trump voters who have not been picked up in the polls. That seems to have happened in the last two Presidential elections and it’s difficult to see why it wouldn’t happen again: especially with a black female Democrat candidate that some voters would perhaps feel a bit embarrassed to say they won’t be voting for.
I feel the wild card for tomorrow that was absent in 2016 and 2020 is a possible late swing to Kamala: perhaps prompted by growing concern about the abortion issue or possibly just by how bizarrely Trump has been behaving lately. That late swing might cancel out the impact of the shy Trump voters, and allow Kamala to fall over the line…just.
Here’s hopin’ and prayin’
Is it possible the betting reflects an expectation that if Trump can’t win fairly he’ll cheat/coup his way to victory anyway? What is the threshold for a payout?
Patrick Bateman: “Is it possible the betting reflects an expectation that if Trump can’t win fairly he’ll cheat/coup his way to victory anyway? What is the threshold for a payout?”
——————————————————————————-
Interesting thought. However, I suspect that – mild-mannered though the Dems might seem to be – a serious attempt at a coup by Trump would see that Presidential immunity being given a good workout by Biden and/or Harris.
I guess a court case is more of a concern. Alito and Thomas would almost certainly rule in Trump’s favour no matter how absurd his complaint about the election might be. I doubt they’d be able to get three out of the four other right-wingers to join them, but who can be sure?
Amy Coney-Barrett has sided with the other women on the SCOTUS a few times and there’s 3 of them and 1 of her so that could be enough and especially if the Chief Justice grew a pair and sided with them.
c@tmomma: “Amy Coney-Barrett has sided with the other women on the SCOTUS a few times and there’s 3 of them and 1 of her so that could be enough and especially if the Chief Justice grew a pair and sided with them.”
——————————————————————————
All three of the justices appointed in the Trump-era have demonstrated that they have minds of their own and that, to a certain extent, they are prepared to consider each case on its merits. Roberts likewise. It’s just Alito and Thomas who consistently behave like total Tea Party/MAGA hacks.
Trump won’t last too long in the slammer. I trust his bail conditions take into account that he’s a clear flight risk. Perhaps Putin or Kim will provide him with a safe harbour.
meher baba @ #2028 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 8:45 pm
I heard an interesting rumour that the Republicans would try to do shenanigans in the House around 6 January, such as sack Mike Johnson as Speaker and refuse to appoint a new one, so therefore there would be no Speaker to preside over the Electoral College results in the Joint Sitting.
But something like that would surely be thought of as so petty as being pathetic. If Harris wins enough EC votes, all that’s left is for her to preside over declaring them as the sitting Vice President. And this time around, it’s Biden presiding as Commander-in-Chief to prevent a repeat of J6 2021.
Gender gap figures in Early Voting: 54.9-45.1 in the Southern Swing States
Female +12 in Georgia
Female +11 in North Carolina
Female +10 in Michigan
Female +7 in Wisconsin
Female +5 in Arizona
Female +0 in Nevada
(3rd Way)
”
meher babasays:
Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Ven: “If it is 6-0 Haley, then why did 3 of them voted for Trump?”
——————————————————————————
I don’t understand why anyone votes for Trump. If I were Trump, I wouldn’t vote for myself.
However, I’ll say this, if 50 per cent of the Republicans who voted for Haley in the primaries end up voting for Harris, this election really will turn out to be a landslide.
”
About a month ago, As per respected pollster before they chickened out, only 45 % of Haley voters wanted to vote for Trump and 35% wanted to vote for Harris and the rest were undecided.
Kirsdarke,
That scenario is guff and the stuff of fantasy by the Republicans. As Dan Goldman explained the other day the House Members are sworn in on January 3rd, so the House Speaker, god willing, will be Hakeem Jeffries on January 6.
meher baba @ #2025 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 7:36 pm
It’s pretty easy, actually.
1. Trump’s polling average is well above where it was in previous cycles when the polling error favored him.
2. Trump has all but admitted to commissioning fake polls to raise his polling average this time around. If you raise your average using fake polls, what happens when reality kicks in? You don’t get the benefit of the polling error, that’s what. Because you created it in the first place.
As I’ve noted before, if Trump gets the same size polling error in his favor this time around, he’s on track to win the popular vote outright. That’s how much higher his average is sitting.
And that’s not impossible. Though I don’t think it’s expected. And a lot of signs point to a different outcome.
There was a time when I would have credited your caveat there. But Obama won twice, easily. And Hillary won the popular vote. Democrats have won the popular vote all but once since 2000 (and the one they lost was at wartime with an incumbent GOP administration).
I don’t think Harris’s gender or race are impediments for her, or a reason for many (if any) to falsely claim to be voting for her.
More likely imo is that the Trump-positive young male cohort would lie to pollsters about it because they think it’s funny (trolling the pollsters, that is). But…a lot of that cohort doesn’t actually show up to vote. And the early vote has been dominated by oldsters who probably mostly don’t go in for those games.
Serious question; if Trump loses the election but then does a successful insurrection this time around, how do the betting markets pay that?
Lots of shy Trump voters IMHO.
A very narrow Harris win would be a disaster. Mega dummy spit from Trump and supporters.
When do the votes from Dixville Notch come in?
I said it a while ago but I think it’s fine to repeat that I reckon Nevada was going to be tough to retain after Harry Reid’s death in 2021. He was pretty much the top dog of the Democratic Party in Nevada, and his loss would make it quite difficult to retain in 2024.
Diogenes @ #2038 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:08 pm
They came in a few hours ago, 3 for Trump, 3 for Harris out of 6 voters.
Diogenes @ #2037 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:08 pm
They came in 50-50. Bad 🙁
a r non serious answer, in the event of a successful insurrection then you have to collect your winnings from Master Blaster in Bartertown
ar
The bets on Sportsbet are paid out on projected EV as determined by AP. Faithless voters don’t count. I don’t know what the others do but they like to pay out earlier rather than get shitloads of complaints.
Player One @ #2040 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 8:10 pm
Not bad. Identical split to 2012. From 4 registered Republicans and 2 Independents. If replicated nationwide, Harris landslide. She can’t lose if she’s getting 50% of Republicans (or even just 50% of the Haley Republicans) and 100% of Independents, unless the Dems have secretly turned against her.
Kirsdarke @ #2036 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:09 pm
I heard that the Reid machine is still going strong in Nevada, fwiw.
Kirsdale
If PA goes red, prob won’t matter.
ar
Calling it?
C@tmomma @ #2046 Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 – 9:17 pm
I hope that’s true. Just with Reid’s death, that means a long lifetime of political friendships, networks and coordination went with him.
Hopefully he passed on these useful things to the next generation of the Nevada Democrats.
The betting markets offer a payout for a correct bet on the outcome of the election. In 2020, Sportsbet paid out on Biden the day of the election, based on the projected results, and well before AP called Pennsylvania as the state that took Biden past 270.
Kirksdarke – the Electoral College count is done by the newly-elected Congress, which takes its place on 3 January. If Harris ends up winning, it’s pretty likely that the Dems will also win back the House, and so what the House Republicans do doesn’t matter. But even if the GOP somehow keeps it’s majority, they’ve already shown a complete inability to agree on pretty much anything, and I’d say it’s likely that Johnson would do some sort of deal with the Dems to remain Speaker – and a key element of that deal would be no funny business.
There’s been quite a lot of chatter about Republican chicanery to somehow overturn the election result, but in reality it won’t be that easy. To start with, the Electoral Count Act was updated (by a bipartisan majority) to minimise the possibility of trickery. Second, the incumbent President is Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, and so the push from the top will be to follow the rules. And third, in all but one of the swing states, there’s a Democrat somewhere in the decision-making process (be it Governor, Secretary of State or legislature), and the only swing state where that’s not the case, Georgia, the relevant players (like Kemp and Rafensberger) have already demonstrated that they are not interested in doing Trump’s dirty work. So while Trump will almost certainly try something on if he loses, his efforts (like they have been in most of his life’s endeavours) will be unsuccessful.