US presidential election minus seven days

Donald Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College, according to forecast models. Also covered: three Canadian provincial elections and electoral events in Japan, Moldova and Georgia.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.

I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.

Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.

Canadian provincial elections

From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.

At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).

The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.

At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).

At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.

Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.

LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan

Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.

At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power.  The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.

Moldova and Georgia

A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.

Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.

2,095 comments on “US presidential election minus seven days”

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  1. Want to know what broke through into the Millennial/Gen Z world? Tim Walz playing ‘Crazy Taxi’ on Twitch with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

  3. Polling averages now have Trump ahead in Nevada and North Carolina, a couple of days ago those states were tied. Trump’s polling leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia have widened. Wisconsin is still tied but if the polls are correct he’ll have 287 electoral votes even without Wisconsin.

  8. This morning, I was reading a book where the protagonist prayed to his god, a god who remained silent, always remains silent.

    It made me think about faith in the real world. For most people, the gods they believe in stay silent, always they stay silent. There are stories, of course, handed down through centuries, of when a god supposedly spoke. And then there are other instances, where someone claimed to hear a divine message, only to be burnt at the stake as a heretic because the voice didn’t align with the accepted doctrine.

    In many ways, the belief that Trump is “good for the economy” feels like this kind of faith. Many hold onto the idea that they, too, can become millionaires, even though they’ve never met anyone who actually achieved it this way. They work tirelessly, slaved to salaried jobs, but the god of money remains silent. And now, once again, a prophet of wealth is preaching. Meanwhile, those who advocate for social safety nets and rights for all are being burnt at the stake, as if their ideals were heresy.

  10. ”
    Puffytmdsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:55 pm
    It is pointless to worry about polls, betting markets or any other predictions at this stage of the USA election. What will be will be.
    And it is useless to try to save the wilfully ignorant from themselves.
    If the USA votes in the Trump fascist , dishonourable, vile, lying, conman and convicted felon, and rapist to be their President, they will have to suffer the consequences.

    So will other nations but we will all have to adapt to a world where the USA becomes a backward degenerate fascist state.

    We may even need to take in asylum seekers from the USA.

    It will be an interesting Tuesday.
    ”

    +1
    Fully agree with that sentiment.

    Centre keeps telling us how it is a win-win for Centre, whoever wins in USA election from betting point of view, which I find baffling. But nevermind my bafflement.

    It will be win-win for me politically, I guess. Trump wins, Modi government and in the process India may win. (With a rider: there is no guarantee Trump will turn against Modi government.)
    However, if Harris wins it will be good for Australia and West. It doesn’t make much difference from current situation for Modi government and India.

    However, I will still campaign (like someone said of my posting) for Harris win
    There is perception that this Australian blog will not be visited by many Americans, if at all. Quite a few on this blog access American news websites for information. So who knows how many are accessing this blog.

  11. ”
    Stoogesays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 1:07 am
    Ven says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 11:47 pm
    SP&R
    @SusquehannaPR
    SP&R releases its new PA Poll in POTUS/US Senate races showing a statistical tie in the race for President (Senate poll to follow this Tweet):

    K. Harris 46.0%
    D. Trump 45.8%
    Undecided 6.0%

    Sample Size 500 LV; Field Dates 10/18-10/22
    MoE: +/-4.3%
    Visit http://susquehannapolling.com

    500?

    Obviously, this is not enough….and it’s already out of date. Such “polls” as these ain’t really very informative. The MoE…pure guesswork.
    ”

    Exactly my point when I discussed Gender classification of polls. Gender classification in National polls is the most accurate i.e. closer to polling margin of error than any other category including State polls.

  12. Yep.

    Bill Clinton is doing rally in Orlando, Florida. Hillary Clinton will be in Tampa and Jasmine Crockett congress member for Texas is going to rally with senate candidate Debbie Powell.

  16. And puerto Rican people in Florida are getting very organised at this point.

    I did not have that on my bingo card for Florida. But it is indeed very welcome.

  19. And how did Puerto Rican voters interpret Trump’s stupid stunt in the garbage truck? As a continued slur on them.

    Well played Trump.

  21. Epstein hanging the hat on NYTimes polling averages

    Reminder, on the day of the 2016 election NYTimes had Hilary Clinton as a 92% of winning

  22. rhwombat

    Musk is trying so hard to get Trump over the line. He is going to fail and have to face consequences.
    I’m looking forward to it.

  23. FUBAR says:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 9:08 am
    Definition of chutzpah: The Democrats rolling out Bill Clinton after criticising Trump for his attitude to women.

    Definition of gaslighting….attempting to compare the convicted serial violent sex offender and predator, stalker and notorious sexist, Donald Trump, with any other POTUS .

  24. rhwombat @ #468 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 9:10 am

    Suck this Musk.
    https://open.substack.com/pub/aliensideboob/p/a-fairytale-of-the-future?r=9vn73&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

    Musk will save a lot of money on health and agriculture costs because putting RFK Jr in charge of the health and agriculture means no more spending on vaccines and pesticides or fertilisers.

    As Adam Kinzinger just commented, wtte: ‘Hey, Trump, the Dark Ages are calling you. They’d like a word.’ 😐

  26. Mostly Interested,
    Then right on cue, as the traditional religion began to lose popularity, the Americans invented a religious belief that combined god with money. And they named it Evangelism.

  28. Apparently not Oakeshott Country…they’re on twitter screaming that males have to get off the couch or they’re cooked.

  29. Reminder, on the day of the 2016 election NYTimes had Hilary Clinton as a 92% of winning

    No I don’t remember that, Nate Silver who I think was working for them at the time gave Hillary about two-thirds chance of winning and Trump one-third chance. Anyway I am not citing some NYT model giving a probability of winning, just the averages of credible swing-state polls. They’re looking bad for Harris right now, she needs them to be wrong.

  30. Definition of gaslighting….attempting to compare the convicted serial violent sex offender and predator, stalker and notorious sexist, Donald Trump, with any other POTUS .

    Both of them good friends with the famous Jeffrey Epstein (no relation)

  31. GE – the NYT polling has been rather bullish on Trump all year. They might be right about that, or they (and other pollsters too) might be misreading the electorate in their polling mix. In any event, the NYT, like other poll averages such as 538, have all of the swing states and +/- 1 or 2%, which is well in inside any margin of error. It’s an mistake that many make: they think that something like a +1% average is somehow meaningful, but it’s not – it’s basically a coin flip across the board.

  32. Omar Comin’ @ #478 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 9:36 am

    Apparently not Oakeshott Country…they’re on twitter screaming that males have to get off the couch or they’re cooked.

    Interesting – has Trump jumped the shark and decided he will win every state just as he did last time?
    The official “crooked” results last time were Biden NM +11 Va +10

  34. Geoffrey Epstein @ #480 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 9:42 am

    Definition of gaslighting….attempting to compare the convicted serial violent sex offender and predator, stalker and notorious sexist, Donald Trump, with any other POTUS .

    Both of them good friends with the famous Jeffrey Epstein (no relation)

    And it’s Kamala Harris running for President against serial sexual predator and convicted sexual assaulter, Donald Trump. 😐

  37. Trump’s rallies and crowd sizes in the swing states have been diminishing along with the momentum of his campaign. Plus the money has run out.

    Hence the Colorado and MSG rallies, and now New Mexico and Virginia., where crowds wanting to see the novelty will turn up. And the earned media could be better.

    Smells of desperation.

  39. Always think of this when Geoffrey Epstein posts

    Tale of two lecherous mates – one dead in a dingy prison cell, the other President of the USA

  41. Also, as sprocket_ said, he’s squeezed the lemon dry in the swing states and needs the juice of crowds to counteract the Harris/Walz campaign.

  43. Both of them good friends with the famous Jeffrey Epstein (no relation)

    Epstein if that’s your real name why not just use a screen name?

  44. And the Epstein stuff is remarkably surfacing… I suspect all manner of dirt is about to be dumped by both sides on the good burghers of America

    Jeffrey Epstein showed off photos of Donald Trump with “topless young women” sitting in his lap, the controversial author Michael Wolff has alleged.

    The pedophile financier had about half a dozen pictures which showed Trump by the pool with multiple young women, Wolff claimed on his podcast, Fire & Fury, Thursday. They were taken in the “late 90s” at Epstein’s Palm Beach home, where he victimized dozens of underage girls along with his procurer, Ghislaine Maxwell, Wolff said.

    Wolff alleged that they were in Epstein’s safe, which the FBI seized when they raided his homes in New York and Palm Beach in July 2019. The massive haul of evidence taken by the feds has never been made public–and while prosecutors disclosed after the raid that they had “hundreds of photos of girls and young women,” they have never offered any more details of them.

    Wolff said of the photos, “They were with Trump at Epstein’s Palm Beach house sitting around the pool with these young girls, and the young girls are topless.

    “And in some of the pictures, they’re sitting in his lap. I mean, and, and then there’s one I especially remember where there’s a stain, a telltale stain and on the front of Trump’s pants, and the girls are pointing at him and laughing.” Trump separated from his second wife Marla Maples in 1997 and began dating his third wife, Melania, in 1998.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/jeffrey-epstein-showed-pics-of-donald-trump-with-topless-young-women-claims-author-michael-wolff/

  45. Who would have thought the October surprise was the Trump campaign punking itself with respect to the Haitians and Puerto Ricans.

  46. Victoria Apartheid Clyde getting his comeuppance will be one of the best things about all of this

    And yeah the October surprise was “Trump is a racist pig” like wtf??

  47. I had stated it would be women, and the black community who would get the dems over the line.

    I now add the Haitians and Puerto Ricans

  49. Stooge says:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 9:15 am

    You must be the only person on this site that is unaware of Bill Clinton’s extracurricular record.

  50. Fubar

    You must be the only person on this site that is unaware of Trumps extracurricular record. Which includes court convictions.

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